Hey everyone me kevin here. I've got an update for you on the vaccine variant. This is going to be important for the stock market on monday, so uh listen up to the update. I want to give you a quick few bits of other updates.

There was somebody from the federal reserve, mr bostic, who came out today and suggested hey. We might want to end the taper sooner we might want to raise rates earlier. I just want you to know that this particular individual is generally deemed to be a little bit more hawkish, so the markets didn't really have much of a reaction to this, but just in case you see those headlines now. You know what that's about.

Okay. More importantly, we got to talk about the variance and retail because both of these are going to be affected, uh or affecting each other. Obviously, we know that uh retail stocks got hammered today, uh retail travel, uh airlines, cheesecake factory, which is literally right. There uh all got hammered today, uh in the stock market because of this new variant.

A lot of fears about this variant, especially since four people in botswana had the pfizer vaccine and they all got it. You've got the two people in shanghai, one of them's wearing a valve mask and he's spreading. You know this new coved variant, which it's not going to be called the new variant. Aka n? U variant! It's uh now they're using the o letter for it, which, honestly it doesn't matter.

If you rearrange the letters for it, i think it spells moronic it's kind of funny, but anyway the name of it doesn't matter. What matters is. How big of a deal is this variant to our stock market and retail and recovery stocks next week? Now i do not own any recovery stocks, but i'll tell you with the update that we just got i'm considering it now. I will also mention that pretty much every retail store in that mall somehow has sent me an email.

It's mentioning that their black friday sales are ending uh tonight, and it's worth noting that i also have a black friday sale tonight. Uh socks and psychology money real estate, youtube sales. Whatever there's a program for you check it out, you can bundle them together as well lifetime access to all the content. I add new content, you get it sometimes i go back uh.

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59 pm california time. Okay with that said, what did we just hear about this new variant? Well, we just heard with the new variant that pfizer moderna and the big vaccine manufacturers like johnson johnson with the approved vaccines. They are already sequencing this new variant, which makes sense that they would they expect that within six weeks they can have a brand new approved microchipping vaccine. I mean uh, vaccine and uh.

This new vaccine can be shipped out in as early as 100 days, which put just put just well kind of like at the end of winter, puts us around march 1st. This is where we stand now: okay, if, if, if, if this new variant is resistant to vaccines, we're going to have a very bad winter, retail stocks and recovery stocks are going to be a disaster between now and when we get that vaccine really shipping approval on The new vaccine and starting to ship. However, i expect that over the weekend and probably by the end of next week, i would not be surprised uh, based on what i'm hearing from other scientists who are familiar with vaccines. I would not be surprised that the existing vaccines are less effective against this variant, but still somewhat effective against the varian.

Now a little bit concerning, remember that pfizer red pill or not the fisa red pill. Uh the merck red pill, the merc red pill, that's supposed to help prevent people from getting hospitalized. Well the new study on it, the new trials on it, rather than reducing the risk of hospitalization. But i want to say 50.

It was only like 36. So a little less effective, really like double whammy bad day for recovery stocks. Today, right, not good, but if we end up coming out with news that the existing vaccines are are very good or relatively effective. 50 plus percent, 50.

60. 70. 70. 60 to 70 is kind of where you have like flu shots anyway.

If we get something like that, that's really good that helps with hurt immunity. Now, look i'm i'm a big fan of choice. I recommend people get vaccinated, but i'm a big fan of choice. I'm vaccinated, i had my booster, i'm an mrna one, uh and - and you know i'm probably chipped but uh.

The chinese probably already beat the covet manufa vaccine manufacturers to that anyway. Anyway, all the china videos i make, but anyway so uh. There are really two paths. We can go uh number one, i think is the most likely that we're gon na have some form of uh effectiveness, uh and then we'll get a much more effective dose in the future.

I almost think that we're going to get new vaccines every six months and just every time you go get your booster. If you end up opting into that you'll end up getting sort of the latest and greatest chipping, i mean vaccine technology double joking here, but anyway, or am i i don't know, but anyway, uh you'll get the latest and greatest every six months and it kind of Just like, rather than getting a flu shot once a year, you end up getting your your updated boost or whatever every six months, i wouldn't be surprised, we'll end up living with this sort of covered madness for the next. You know three four five six years or longer until hopefully it just disappears and we finally have that immunity and it's gone right uh. I really want to stop having to wear masks.

I hate it, but anyway, okay, so with that said, that's the. In my opinion. The most likely scenario in that scenario, i might be tempted to start looking at some retail stocks like macy's or even sax, but i'm specifically going to be looking at retail stores that have really successful online brands. Macy's folks right here they are killing it online.

Their real estate don't value their real estate that highly okay, because if this mall dies, the value that real estate goes to trash. So if you're looking at book value, do not be misled by book value of a company like macy's, you want to look at online sales. Online sales growth quarter over quarter, growth, saks and macy's are killing it. They are crushing it with online nordstrom's.

Nikes are getting beat up with supply chain disruptions now, so are the other ones, but still these might be opportunities on monday, if you believe or if we get news over the weekend - and you believe that uh, the current vaccines are going to be somewhat effective and We'll get an update by march 1st, which is actually not that far out remember how long we had to wait for the first vaccine. The pandemic struck somewhere around what we had a national emergency around march 12 2020. We didn't get approval until like november and we didn't actually start getting vaccines until essentially a year right, so this is 100 days instead of a year uh. That's that's very, very fast.

It's really really fast, and i expect that on that news, we'll probably see retail rally so uh uh on. So even if the uh, the vaccines, don't uh work, the current ones work that well, i think, there's a good chance. We're gon na have a retail rebound because i think black friday, not necessarily in the stores but online, is gon na crush it. This year we already expect that 2021 is going to be the biggest retail consumer boom ever, but i think we're going to beat expectations.

So the reason i think that is because people have more money, more savings, they're going out and meeting more people, they're traveling they're, going on vacation, they're, buying stuff they're buying things that they can use for experiences that they didn't get to do. They didn't get to go skiing uh, they didn't get to go uh, you know surfing or whatever, because they were stuck at home prior years or whatever now's the time where everybody's going shopping, so i'm very, very optimistic on a big retail boom. I think this. This coveted fear that we had today might potentially just be us coming off of uh of a a bull trap on wednesday.

You know we had this really excited bump on wednesday and kind of pulled back a little bit uh. Overall, i'm still in the same position. I'm 85 percent longest market. I really believe in this market uh etsy nvidia.

These companies keep going to the moon uh. I'm very patient, i'm doing a little bit more discount shopping for crypto right now, because i'm just not seeing really big discounts on uh. Some of the other i'm really looking for like i want to get 20 30 off all-time highs. That's usually what i'm looking for crypto! You know we go 69 to.

I just bought a little bit at 53, 700 or whatever, and set an alert to everybody in the stocks in psychology money group. You know what is that: that's uh, uh, 15, 15. 16. 000 of a difference, no 15, 000 of a difference.

15 000, divided by i i don't know whatever whatever the math is. I can't think of it right now. It's it's somewhere a little over 20 right, because 20 would be 14. So it's a little over 20, it's like 22 23 off its highs.

Uh! That's that's! Where i want to start nibbling, so you know if i could see uh end phase, i think uh, you know end phase was almost 300. So if we get end phase uh, you know 240 230 uh or it might have only hit like 280 or whatever. But that's a little bit of that threshold where i want to start nibbling now. Ideally, you get a bigger drop off those all-time highs, but we might not see that because look if the budget deficit gets passed, the debt ceiling gets passed.

We get through this new variance scare. What's gon na happen is we're gon na start getting numb to new variants and we're going to stop caring about new variants. This one's a little more scary, because people are like. Oh, what if the vaccines don't work right but uh yeah, i'm, i have to say i'm optimistic, uh, very optimistic.

Uh. I've closed all short positions. I have so i have no more short positions and um. I'm ready for the end of the year rally to continue, but we still have congressional drama and still have elevated evaluations.

So you know i'm not flipping, i'm in the same boat, i'm just like more cash and doing a little bit of uh defying there on crypto. So, anyway, welcome to the cheesecake factory. Look at that. You got cheesecake and uh yeah, we'll see you in the next one thanks so much for watching check out those programs linked below thanks, bye,.