Welcome back to another market, open, live stream back from vacation yesterday, so missed you yesterday. So few crazy things happening already so far today, uh first of all, wonders are uh where the rumors are circulating, that will february be the month of a giant short squeeze one that we've kind of been waiting for uh well since, like december, because the shorts have Just been going ridiculous and they've been making a lot of money, so you almost can't blame the shorts, but the shorts have been making a ton of money and short interest has skyrocketed on everything. The only place so far that i've seen an inflection point down slightly was in rk, but otherwise the small caps and other the other sort of famous uh. You know shift technologies, tattoo chef lemonade, so about some of those at the top of the short interest list.

Are still sitting there, the top of the short interest less and so with uh, with january being one of the worst januaries that we had seen, i want to say since uh the 19 early 1900s. I've got it written down here, but uh, let's see here. This was the uh worst january's. No, this is just straight up, one of the worst januaries for the s p 500, that we have ever had.

Some folks are wondering if what happened in january is a sign that maybe we're not going to have the best potential january. The average return for the s p 500 in february, ended up being negative after a january decline of more than five percent and again one of the uh worst januaries that we've ever seen. This is pretty wild, but again also in my opinion, this is my opinion. One of the most highly shorted januaries that we've seen not sure uh i haven't been able to corroborate the historical short interest, but uh, it's incredible how short of the market has been.

So i do wonder if we could see some more explosive volatility to both sides. What we had been seeing since the beginning of january uh is is a lot of rallies, followed by uh, quick sell-offs, not necessarily immediately. We had a lot of this this ridiculous movement. What we really have to be careful of, though, is that we start hitting some newer highs in some places.

Otherwise the market can start getting a little bit nervous uh. Let me give you an example of that just by drawing it uh and the reason for this is, if you go back to let's see here there we go. If you go back to any of the other earlier crashes like 2008 uh dot-com bubble doesn't really matter. Usually the pattern that you see or something like this - the market uh kind of moves up to to all-time highs, and then you get a you get a correction.

Sometimes that correction is even a little bit sharper. You you get this this decline and then you generally have folks, i hate to say, but like jim cramer, who are like. Oh don't worry, we're coming in for a soft landing, everything's gon na be fine uh, and then that feels like it's correct. When we get sort of the first violent rebound, but the danger comes when we do this right, and so so that's the danger in the market is that what we don't want to see is sort of these lower highs.

Here, that's an issue. We are going to get violent moves to the upside and that's that's normal in a high volatility. Uh environment, just like insane moves to the downside to normal as well. The question is: when does that vol go away uh? When does that volatility decline? When does that short interest decline, i think that's going to be critical here and seeing if, if there's going to be any short covering in february, would be pretty impactful and pretty powerful for the markets, i think now uh.

It is also, though, important to note that uh we still have the federal reserves meeting coming up on march 16th. We got a few very important dates. We've got uh feb4, which is jobs data day uh. Then we have uh - let's see here cpi coming out on the 10th, also quite important, so both of these will be very, very critical.

Both these will come out at 5 30 a.m. So if you haven't yet set your alarm or a reminder or something on your calendar to check back here, do consider doing that again. That's the 4th and 10th of february, and conveniently it's also you've also got the same date set up for uh for march uh. So the fourth you'll have on uh employment numbers again and uh cpi on uh on the 10th, so important dates uh this these both this will.

These will be four massive pieces of data. That'll precede the march 16th federal reserve meeting, which is actually from the 15th to 16th, when jp will come back out again and we'll see how hawkish they are so far, we've uh we've heard from a couple more dovish members of the fed uh one that i Reported on on friday and then another one who had an interview with the financial times over the weekend, uh and both of them seem pretty darn, convinced that we're pretty much guaranteed having a 100 rate increase or a 25 basis point increase on march 16th and even A good chance of a 50 point base 50 basis, point increase on the uh on the 16th, which hasn't been done since the dot-com bubble, and there have been plenty of people uh freaking out about uh, the comparison of now to the dot-com bubble. Uh - and i always think it's interesting to kind of compare what we have going on sort of in in either our lives or in society and and look around and ask hey like do we have excessive speculation in certain areas of the market? Has that speculation already been dealt with and the fact that so many stocks are so substantially down uh, who knows you know, is there more to go or is this it you know? Did we hit our bottom uh? What at some point last week, whether that was the early morning or the early week, disaster of like monday, tuesday or the super early morning, crisis that we had? I think it was on thursday when tesla was like 790, for example, uh, which was right after amazing earnings, mind you, amazing earnings by tesla might have been friday morning, but anyway, amazing earnings by tesla they got sold off wild. A lot of institutional investors seem to be chasing stocks that have uh or are reporting increasing margins.

So keep that in mind when you're looking at companies to evaluate increasing margins, uh is a sign of inflation protection, or at least so uh institutional investors propose and uh doesn't necessarily have to be that case anyway and uh. There was a little note by the cfo over at tesla that margins in the near term would be a little rougher than in the long term, and so i think that may have contributed to a little bit of that sell down that we saw obviously uh tesla Has recovered very nicely in just the last day here uh anyway, then. We've also got apparently sony buying bungie, which uh, if anybody remembers bungie from way back when they made some of the original halos and uh. Obviously, recent more recently made uh destiny, so sony's buying them for 3.6 billion.

This comes after microsoft announced that they're buying activation blizzard for 69 billion dollars, which i always thought was a really weird number. Given all the sexual allegation issues going on over at activation, blizzard uh yeah, it could just be bad rounding by media, though uh and then uh. You do, though, have the ftc now talking about investigating microsoft, uh and the activision blizzard deal is a result. I can't really say that this has really hit the stock at all microsoft's, only down about point one, two percent right now in the pre-market.

Okay, let's see india is warming up to crypto uh google x on paypal report today and yeah. A lot of talk about uh the ism surveys that'll come out today. Let's see all right cool, so let's go ahead and jump on over to the sticks and we're going to start with bitcoin and our sponsor ftx. So if you haven't signed up for ftx yet consider checking them out, but make sure you sign up with a referral link like the one in the description down below, take a look at bitcoin's, very nice ride here, uh coming coming back, uh very nicely.

Almost to 39 000 - and this is critical because we were stuck down in that uh. You know the mid 36 range for quite a while, and the fact that we've now moved out of this is a pretty critical test for the market, because whether whether bitcoin ends up leading the market or the market leads bitcoin doesn't matter, they seem to be sort Of signs and symptoms of each other - and this is where we really had been stuck a lot in this 36 range at one point, we were just below 36, with a more violent drop to just below 33k, but moving back above some of these prior levels. Here is going to be critical, especially especially if we could start breaking out over this 39.2 level right here. I think this was a critical test after our first big drop here for our one of our first larger drops from uh from just below 44 000..

So we can really break out above this, especially today i think that'll be critical and a nice solid, close over that 39.2 line, uh that that would be very positive. All right. Let's go ahead and jump on over and see uh what we've got over here, all right, so uh, let's take a look at the pre-market. Let's start with positive news.

Look at this folks. We got amc up 9.9. It's incredible uh! I mean it's not incredible. That's 17.

I remember when this fell under 20 dollars. There was a. There was a lot of a lot of uh social media discussion over what the heck was going on, but uh. This is a sign that there's a little bit of that that risk on coming back right.

When you see small caps move when you see the uh, the previous momentum, stocks move oftentimes, that's a sign of risk momentum coming back does not necessarily mean it's going to. Last, hopefully it does. The big risk is that short sellers take the opportunity to pile shorts on again to hedge against bad news. The unfortunate issue here in our markets right now is we have more good or more bad news.

Coming probably, then we have good news. We're not expecting great things that are going to help chill the fed out from their hawkish demeanor when you look at either jobs report coming up or either inflation report coming up. However, if we got an inflection point to the downside of those that, in my opinion, could be a perfect catalyst for a short cover rally, the question, then, is how how excited can the market get before those events, though uh and that'll be a that'll, be a Big tell i do think uh after a larger rally like what we saw yesterday with look at that shift technologies up 15, i mean the thing's still under 2.50 cents, which is wild, but anyway uh up fifteen percent on shift technologies. Here yesterday, uh today is up five point: six in the pre-market.

If this can hold uh that that could start making some shorts a little nervous, maybe start taking profits on their shorts, which of course, would uh increase the price, because, when shorts cover, they have to buy the stock. Matterport. Look at this matterport coming back from from the depths of despair, i mean matterport for a period of time went to eight dollars, uh, which is also quite wild, because it's a phenomenal company and has been a has been a big subject of sort of the metaverse Debate but again, institutions fleeing to to this apparent safety of higher margins, higher net margins and unfortunately, matterport does not have net margins. Neither does shift technologies right now as most backs.

Don't you know, i think spax almost have to sort of be looked at as a smaller uh company that uh that's almost kind of like private equity money, where it's just like you're invested, like angel, investing or venture capital investing, because they're so early in their processes? Usually yeah, but that certainly doesn't help them in this market anyway. Okay, i did see that neo yesterday had a wild ride as well. Let's take a look at neo here: yeah neo back to 25 dollars here in the pre-market briefly sitting uh sitting just uh yeah right about 25 right now up two percent, absolutely crazy, so where's neo uh neo did drop below 20 dollars for a period of time. Look at this here, look at that with 1931 on friday morning.

That's incredible! That was. That was a definitely a big old pain point right here now. The question is: will this end up having been peak pain out of the uh out of this entire uh? You know rut that we've been in, and so that's another thing we want to look at is just zoom out on the day chart here and look at december 6, which was a horrible day and notice. How what we've really been getting here are lower highs right, and that is the risky part about this market, so remember towards the beginning of this live stream.

Just in case, maybe you joined a little later. We were talking about one of the most important things to remember that market crashes, like in 2000 uh in the 2000s 2003, which lasted you, know three years, basically uh the 2008 uh crash. The market doesn't go straight down it. Has these crazy rallies uh like what we saw yesterday, the the big test is: can we get a? Can we get back above previous levels that that is a critical test uh in this market, so in this case, for neo, can, for example, can we get back into the 30s? I mean we're at 25 right now, so we've got a beautiful candlestick back up to that 25 range uh, but uh.

You know the trend is not our friend here and neither is jerome powell. I tweeted again this weekend that jerome powell is not my friend anymore. Uh anyway, so uh looking at beyond meat, i mean all of these. Have almost every single stock has hit its bottom here.

Let's try to find some that haven't recently hit a bottom on friday and look at some of them. I mean fifty dollars for rivian. It's sitting at sixty five dollars now uh, which is just a wild swing of a difference, but is this just the anchor along the bottom right i mean take a look or just you're, not even finding the bottom. Yet that's that's! The worry i mean, we've had these rallies before too uh, probably not.

I haven't seen this wild close, though on shift technologies, which i think is good see here yesterday we had this eleven point. Nine two percent close most of these previous rallies that we've had on shift where we had like 11 to 15 percent days, have sold off prior to the close. So i do think that's a good sign for markets that we had some of those stronger rally. Numbers actually closed.

Yesterday, see uh back here you had a seven percent day, two percent day on upstart a six percent day and uh yeah. I mean obviously surrounded. Oh here you go. We have had a previous rally moment here so december.

6Th was a very bloody day in the market. Very bloody, and the very next day was also green december. 7Th, which would be uh well not also green was green. That kind of compares to monday, right friday to monday this disastrous friday followed up uh, at least at the beginning of the day, followed by a strong green there, the day after, but look folks that was december 7..

What's scary about that is, even though we've lived this world before, where we had this, you know upstarts going down these crazy low levels. I remember covering this at the time on the 7th. You know it's at 170 and it's down 5.2 percent on the sixth, which was following this insane plummet here only to rally like crazy here, 11, the next day, 1.85 the next day, and then it really. It took a few days before we actually started getting sort of another red decline, and this is what we want to prevent.

These rallies will happen. This is what we want to prevent the trend, and so that that is where we're really looking for. Can we just break some of those levels uh where we've been sitting and can we get to new highs or even just relatively recent highs, all right so, for example, tesla whatever 950 or whatever? Can we actually break above? One of these other crest points here like can we can we break above 11, 18 or 11 15 and actually close above that right. That would just be critical if we could do that uh.

That would be quite quite great, but uh we'll see. So, let's look at lemonade here: lemonade went as low as 25.83 uh back to about 31. Now robinhood fell down 9.94 dollars. Oh my gosh on uh on earnings day only to recover uh substantially now at about 14 kathy, would, by the way, buy lots of robin hood.

I've been buying robinhood for a while uh here's an interesting quote. Somebody says no amount of no amount of good news. Moves a bear market, no amount of bad news, moves, a bull market, uh, no amount of good news moves, a bear market, no amount of bad news, most people, you know that's an interesting argument. It's basically like because, if you, if you go back to november, we had this insane like bull market rally right uh and it's kind of true to some degree, you didn't really need any news.

The market was just going straight up, right, uh and and to the point of the quote here, it's like what good news is actually going to move the market uh and so the bear market thesis really just has to end and that's when shorts cover and and That's when, when we can bail out of this this disaster, the stock market has gone into. I mean really, nobody hasn't been hit by this. Unless you just you somehow perfectly moved from every stock that you've owned into like bp. You know, unless you perfectly nailed that somehow everybody's been hit by this uh, so it's quite interesting uh, but anyway, we'll see what happens here.

How are indices doing today, let's go ahead and pull up cnbc, but anyway, we'll see what happens so again, waiting for a break of 39.2 on btc right now on ftx i've got btc sitting at 38.928, really hoping for that break above 39.2. Just to hopefully, then push us back up to about 44.. So, let's see here, someone here says kathy wood sold a huge amount of talent here yesterday. Let me go fact check that quickly.

I have uh her trade here we go ark 31st, all right, ooh, uh, 275, 000 shares plus 447, 000 plus 1.4 million. My goodness i mean we're at 2 million. Here's about another million. They're 3 million shares one two, three one, two three: what's what's the darn thing trading for today, let me see a 3 million.

Let's see how much she had uh pound tears at 13.71. I can't believe that low 13 50 - let's call it times three million one. Two three one: two: three: that's 45 million dollars worth you know. I think that sounds a lot larger than uh.

It actually is because, let's see how much she actually owns, i think that's the tail all right, so sold 45 mil and a pound here. She's got uh huh, yeah, okay, so she sold like a 10 percent of her palace. Your position, you know it that looks a lot probably scarier than it was. You know it.

I it'd be one thing if she dumped like everything but yeah she's got just over 420 million dollars of uh of talent here or had and uh just sold about 40 mil of it. So uh. That's interesting! That's interesting, uh somebody's asking if i'm still hodling amc, that was my deal still holding it. Okay, where are we here sure you're sure sound like the grinch grinch who stole the christmas rally all right so uh, nasdaq uh.

Let me go to the other one. You know the cnbc futures are a little delayed, which i think is kind of lame like would you just pay for the the proper data cnbc? Oh well, so here we go uh dao right now, sitting about flat 0.03 percent s, p, 0.01 flat technologies. Point one three flat small cap, 0.04, 0.02 ish also flat. Quite frankly, probably the best thing you could hope for right now is uh is is just stability if we could hold these numbers from yesterday.

That could reiterate some of these. These prices, as as floors hopefully, and then we push again uh, but it's just the market we have been in, has not been good to these short-term rallies. Everybody gets really excited that, oh my gosh, the bottom's in you know just be careful, uh yeah. I i hope the bottom's saying again the worst thing that could happen is we go into a recession you're like yeah but kevin.

Then you you'll break down like it doesn't matter, recession ruins everybody's opportunity to build wealth for years uh or at least not necessarily ruins it, but takes or or it's harder to to get a better job. It's harder to make more money on a on a main hustle or a side house or whatever recessions, just suck uh, it's more fun. When everybody's got money and everybody's spending, you know so uh really really paying attention to uh geez. I mean look at these.

These charts are just absolutely disgusting all over the place and again we see the green. We see rallies regularly on these, but we've got to test some levels here, for example, docusign really can can we just like at bare minimum get back to uh the prior? The prior floor, which also was virtually a prior ceiling here, i'm seeing between 130 and 145 right here for docusign, so sort of like a temporary floor. It's like oh, oh, is this: it is this the floor. Are we going to rally off of here? Is it time to buy the dip on docusign, right, uh and that ended up being a ceiling over here second week of january and uh now the question is: can we actually get back to those levels or or is this? This is terrible trying to continue.

Oh, i have no idea we will find out amazon under 3k, it's kind of wild to see amazon under 3k uh, and i mean, if you look at this channel of amazon's nothing. This channel has existed on amazon since july, 1st 2020.. It's almost like the pandemic. Literally and perfectly priced in exactly how valuable amazon was going to be during the pandemic and then just never gave it a bone again uh.

It's i mean it is now in the the lower kind of sloppy catch channel of the main channel that had been riding in uh. We had. We had fun, though i mean look at this. This was november over here that nice bull trend over here.

This is just a disaster, but again can we push amazon into that 3000 to 3400 range more consistently, or are we going to end up getting rejected here bobbing around here breaking to the downside? Hopefully not. It is difficult to see us going to like. I don't think there's any way some people ask me like. Oh kevin, can we go back to all-time highs? In december i mean yeah in theory we could it just.

That would seem very unlikely. Given that jerome powell's meeting is coming up on march 16th and anytime prices go up, we usually get some form of profit taking so, for example, or shorting right, for example, people who are like man. I just i you know when when tesla went down, they saw tesla go down to 792 or whatever right. There are people like man.

I wish i sold at 9.50 wish i woulda coulda shoulda shoulda sold at 930 when i had the chance or should have sold at a thousand when i had a chance, and so when we get these rallies. One of the reasons they're deemed to be these convictionless rallies is because we move up boom uh. We get hit with this with this new selling pressure, because people are ah finally my chance and that's what keeps sort of a lid on stock prices uh, because there's it's almost like you've got in this investor fatigue, which honestly i can't really blame after the disaster Of of 2021, i mean 2021 was great for indices, but for stock picking. It was not that great uh.

If you had a great balance, it could have worked very very well, but uh it was uh. It was not the easiest, especially since the the santa claus rally never really came. The rally we had in november sold off like within i mean very quickly. The november rally did not last very long.

It didn't even last the whole month so we'll see, but anyway, here's arc. You know, look at this nice little temporary shelf. We drew here for ark and look what that did for it. Absolutely nothing! So that's the scary thing is again: can we hit these prior rallies here and i think that's going to be a little bit of a testament to this market, we'll see how things open today? Do you think our open's going to be critical? Not only is the open going to be critical, but watching, in my opinion, btc, which btc tends to move right at the opener as well, and it tends to wait to see what the smp does to move.

So, for example, here we are at ftx.us, remember to check them out and use the referral link down below at least check out the website. I think uh you'll you'll enjoy what you see there, so i don't get paid anything for you checking out just the website. It's not like a conversion based thing or whatever uh go, go check it out uh, but i am sponsored by uh by ftx yeah, but but do um do watch this, i'm personally. Looking for the 39.2 level, as as a milestone for today, i'm setting a a nice milestone, i don't think that's too difficult and if we get a nice green s p push here right in the first uh.

You know five minutes. We could push 39.2 within five minutes uh. So this this open is going to be critical. All eyes are going to be on these these indices here and uh.

I would say the first minute to two minutes are usually the most bizarre, because that's when you get uh fund managers who oftentimes execute trades or like the block trades, come over or whatever right, yeah the people who need liquidity, who uh who aren't gon na you Know buy or sell in the pre or post market, so the first two minutes tend to be a little gyry, which i agree. That's a twist on the word gyration, but diary, because that fits better. And i don't. I don't think it's a word, but anyway uh by minute three four.

We should have a sense of direction, at least in terms of which direction we're going here in the morning. What was really nice about yesterday and also quite rare, is that we had a soaring morning and we didn't get the uh a post, uh or an end day sell-off. I saw it looked like around like 11 30 or so so. Halfway through the trading day, it looked like we were starting, maybe more than halfway through like 70, through the training day, it looked like.

We were starting to get a fall into the close yesterday, but we actually didn't get a fall into the clothes we like rallied into the clothes. So it was a temporary kind of like speed bump and then it took off again. It was absolutely incredible. So uh all right folks, fingers crossed on this open here.

Let's go and watch the bell and uh. Let's uh: let's see what happens all right, it's listening, but, let's not forget smart people out of every school in the country apply there and they're quiet meta. David meadows had no cessation really none really none. I don't believe that, although um, what's it gon na, be okay, that's that's! Like 60 green, i like that 60.

Okay, we'll take that kind of heat map. Now the question is: how long is it going to stay like that uh still, bob something's popping a little more red? Okay, all right! Let's, let's see how we're doing here, so we got qqq first red candlestick here uh slightly to the downside, not not nothing too crazy or violent. So that's good uh smp see it ran into the open, but again that initial first few minute kind of selling pressure here, it's okay! Let it bob for the first two couple minutes here and let's see the direction. Let's look at amc.

I think that could be a little bit of a tell on risk sentiment. Look at this we went into the open 11.4 up is what we went into the open here, as well as shift technologies and lucid. Oh look at that perfect bounce off lucid. Oh, my gosh, all the ta see the people who love ta they're, like oh kevin, getting excited about his lines again and uh the people who uh, who are ta deniers.

Hopefully, if you watch my streams regularly, you, you start becoming a technical analysis, believer because it's quite ridiculous, but anyway a perfect bounce here off of about 31 on lucid here it is. It is up again from some of its lows on friday here, but a slight rotation to the downside want to watch qqq here. First, it's not ideal on minute, two right there, a little bit of a drawdown again, uh again folks. This is, and i don't want that i want us - i want to see this move up.

We want to see a second day kind of confirmation and then the next couple weeks we really want to see. Even if it's slow, just give us a directional trend up, it doesn't have to be like an immediate rally back like we had yesterday. Just give us something nice back. Obviously, it's not unexpected to see some give back on a big day, but we just to get out of this stock rut to actually go back to some of the numbers we've been used to.

We we can't keep having green, followed by red and unfortunately, right now that appears to be what we're getting uh tesla right now dropping to about 926, probably btc, going to move down with this at the open here and i'm on the one hour. Stick, let me go down to the one minute: stick here: uh, okay, uh! No! No! No! No! I'm way too zoomed in or zoomed out. Rather, let's go see here, yeah, okay, so we're at 38.7. Right now we did, as expected, at the bell, get uh get a movement on btc here very, very common, to see.

Btc move right at the bell with uh with the indices, depending on which direction the indices go so uh, here's tesla is uh is and unfortunately the the first two minutes can sometimes be so critical because they like, after a rally day, you start seeing the first Couple red candlesticks people who are swing, traders, which i know some people are like. Oh they can't be that many swing traders you'd be surprised, like institutions, that's all they do every day is. This is being trade right, uh this that could motivate some more selling pressure. So hopefully that stops uh.

It does look like the spice trying to slow down its fall a little bit here, it's still flat, so it's actually not negative right now, which is good, and it seems like that current minute, candlestick is trying to go back up here. Same thing on the qqq also mostly flat here, so not terrible amc only shaving off a couple percent here, so i don't think risk sentiment is, is really all risk off. Maybe that sets up for a nice green reversal here and we've got palantir moving down uh. It's still up two percent on the day, lemonade's still up two percent, but definitely getting some selling pressure here to resist that open roblox is at sixty seven dollars, you're tied with rhythm boy.

I never thought i'd see the day. These two would be died in the 60s. My goodness uh, let's see here lucid, let's get the va. Okay, lucid, let's see if it ends up breaking through this or or holding on that 29 80 level.

Here, let's jump into neo uh neo 2422, mostly also rotating down right now, tesla's, not breaching that one percent to hold nice little rotation now coming on tesla, hopefully that that stays green. Let's watch that for a second here, let's see here, somebody says to see change. Rock bottom has to be hit, so people realize they weren't going in the right direction. Only then i see things changing to better.

Hmm, that's interesting james! I missed you too. Thanks for being here, thank you uh all right, so this is good. This is good, so some initial selling pressure - that's okay, uh that that can happen after a big rally day again gives people an opportunity to exit a very, very common uh. The big question now is: can we get back there we go? Can we get these green candles back? I hope so, and can we push these back to where we started today? So that way we can go back to that conversation.

We were having earlier, which was the conversation around uh breaking some of the the previous levels of of resistance that we hit on prior rallies. We really got to start having higher highs, so uh spy here, nice nice recovery, spy's about to go positive, uh. Well, i mean it pretty much has only been bouncing off flat, but it has recovered from this little hole. That's good! So spy's got a nice little recovery here, wild first five minutes here, not terribly surprising.

The good news is that selling pressure stopped pretty quickly. So that's very, very good. Qqq is behaving approximately the same way here, tesla's only down about a third of a percent right now, as opposed to that we saw about a percent 0.15 ish. Let's look at some of the larger losers in the day.

Let's see here larger losers of the day. Att is down about 45, that has to be news driven which we can check out, and then we've got logitech two percent. These are not deep reds right here i mean apple. Barely one percent down neo is right around there as well, not a lot of deep reds, so it looks like most things actually green here, though, still seeing that that that risk evaporate a little bit here on amc, we went as high as 11 percent in the Pre-Market and uh now at uh, seven percent dual arena - nice uh, nice kyle.

Ah, thank you, michael you beat me and having to look it up. Uh at t have their dividend. You know this is exactly what they did the last time uh. What maybe, a year ago, their dividend was so incredible and everybody was buying this stock and then they just have the dividend.

It's been terrible for the stock uh, so it's whatever uh. I don't know. I don't think that's the best investor relations management, but um hey! You know if they need the cash, they need the cash. So let's see uh.

Okay, let's go over here. Tesla! Oh wait: whoa whoa whoa! What the heck this is. I did look. I look away for one minute, and this is what you do you go from from a third a negative two to a one and a third negative.

Do i just have to keep my eyes on you like a little child? What is this? Oh speaking, of which oh my gosh like this just brings tears to my eyes. It is so oh my gosh, i had the best freaking time uh, with the little guys this weekend and uh. This i'll tell you one of the the coolest things ever. They took uh jack, snowmobiling and uh.

I just want you it's so adorable. I just want you to see the the beaming look in his eyes when he, when we stopped to pick up some ice and look look at how adorable this is look at this little guy. Oh man, i just want to go back there and snowmobile with him again that was so fun uh anyway, sorry uh. That was great so anyway, some some good news there in the red, candlesticks, um, okay.

So, let's uh, let's see, are the indices going to push down as well. I want to look at some of the others here. Uh. Oh, look at sofi, nice move here on so far trying to get back over 13 dollars so far is actually ripping right.

Now too so so far is ripping uh toast. So it's kind of stable here amc's trying to push back a little bit good good back to nine percent. The only one ripping right now is so far. I'm not seeing many of these rip.

Uh look at normal things instead of candles. I know. Uh gme is obviously sympathy trading here with amc just trying to get an overall feeling of the risk sentiment here. Look at this folks.

This is this is a sign that the short short covering is not here. Yet when you look at like shift technologies and lemonade after a crazy day like yesterday, you'd think you'd shake some shorts loose right. It's kind of like get get those shorts to paper hand and get out of here and and let the market actually move again. But that's not what we're seeing right now on shift and lemonade, at least not in the early price action.

Here, a cloud flare back to 97. That's actually pretty incredible, given that the thing was sitting at like 80 for a while yeah look at that it was at 76 on my birthday and uh then went up 12, followed by another 7 rally. I mean that's two really good days in a row there on cloudflare really has needed it. We've seen this we've look folks, fool me once shame on you follow me twice.

Shame on me. We've literally seen these two day candlesticks before, like we have literally seen these kinds of rallies before and uh, and we we just we at this point. Can we just get something that sustains this we're pretty tired of this uh? This is uh tesla on the day. Going back to the minute here, sitting solid right now around that 1.4 to the downside, not that big of a give back, if you think about it like come on.

It had a 10 day yesterday, so what it gives back 1.3 today right, big freaking deal uh, but again we're looking for some form of a reiteration that we can more consistently move uh to the upside here and uh. Okay. So, surprisingly, not a lot of big pain. Still, let's go look at some uh some headlines here, not a lot of big pain, the the biggest pain beyond att on their dividend.

Move is really here. You know tmc at about four percent, but then you quickly get into the one and two percent big deal: that's uh relatively nominal here all right! So, let's see here, let's go look at some of the uh beautiful things going on in the news. All right, equities drift as fed officials express caution when they do that. Uh.

Let's see here, u.s stocks drifted in early trading as federal reserve officials. Cautioned against disruptive policy tightening and u.s companies signaled another strong earnings season drifted. What does drifted mean? Uh, let's see s, p was little changed. Okay for fed officials said they'll back interest rate increases at a pace that doesn't disrupt the economy.

Uh calmly markets unnerved by the previous secretary well, this was over the weekend. This is none of this is actually new from this morning, so that was already uh part of our excitement. In euphoria yesterday, however, a few fed officials expressed caution over over over faster than necessary tightening uh, including uh mary daley, who cited a number of risk factors to the economy, including the ongoing pandemic. No one wants to upset the economy.

You know it it's funny how they're trying to like play the violin for us right now, but the reality is as long as we still have this inflation surge and and this tailwind that's pushing us of of of rents going up which you'll rent inflation here shows That landlords have the upper hand again right this. This continues to push cpi up, which ultimately forces the fed's hand. You know they'll be like oh, no everybody's chilling out every shot. It's all going to be okay, we're just going to keep raising rates and keep raising rates and keep raising rates, and then, when that does nothing, which i really expect uh.

The rate increases to do virtually nothing for for the market. It's like we're going to get this half point increase on march 16th, everybody freaks out and then what oh, it's okay rates went up a little bit. Nobody cares big deal uh. The problem, though, is, i don't, think it's actually going to lower inflation.

What really lowers inflation is people either not buying as much uh or us actually fixing the supply problem, so so combination of those is the most likely scenario uh anyway, so uh yeah, rent inflation by the way, the problem with this and the way they calculate cpi Is you get it? You get a really good lag in cpi cpi's sitting at about a six month lag which is quite terrible. If you think about it, a six month lag for uh cpi, for rent uh and, and why is that? Well, theorizing, uh! First, you have to think to yourself uh right now. I just want you to picture picture your neighborhood, oh everybody in your neighborhood. I don't know.

Maybe you've got a hundred homes closest to you or the 100 apartments closest to you. It doesn't matter apartment homes is all the same. Uh and and now let's say uh, you know, pandemic hits and rents instantly go up. 20 instantly.

Everything goes up. 20. Well now everybody looks around you. You look around at all your your neighbors, your 100 neighbors or whatever, and like did anybody's rent go up yet no technically no nobody's rent went up yet like if rents literally monday went up 20.

The next day, nobody's rent has gone up that high. Yet, but then you know when sally next door's lease expires in two weeks: she's gon na get reemed with higher end right when, when billy's release expires in two months, he's gon na get reamed uh. With with this high rate, so you get it and then the way they calculate cpi's, two using owner's equivalent, which is basically when the landlord feels like their rent, is actually gone. It's insane uh, and so usually.

This is why you have this crazy, like six uh uh six month, delay and that's a problem, because that gives you some some of a tailwind pain to uh, adding to inflation. So, as used car prices come down, you can actually see rents offset that substantially. People say when inflation numbers first started coming out, and i i was one of the people looking at it going like. I just used cars.

Who cares right problem? Is it's like everything now and uh used? Cars is a lot smaller percentage than housing anyway, so uh? Okay, let's i do want to see a little bit more of what we've got on headlines here, but it does look like the s. P has just turned negative, not by much by like .13. Who cares one of the big things about the spy that i really like right now is that we are sitting nicely above that 430 line folks see this 430 line here. Look.

We have a very strong support level drawn here, we're nicely away from that right now. So, even though it's like oh we're, red tiny little bit red, who cares we're so far away here? No bull market till 2024, btc having cycle uh prediction, jerome loses grip of everything qe to infinity uh. Well, the worst case scenario is that uh? I call it the the sh-9t scenario: uh yeah and then in that scenario, okay, yeah. In that scenario, jerome powell uh in the federal reserve do lose control to the point where uh they they feel they have to continue raising rates, even while the mar our economy potentially goes into a recession and a lot of folks, they tell me kevin why hold On this is the ism numbers it was a slight beat actually from esteban hold on live breaking news.

We're looking for the current read the january final read for market manufacturing, pmi manufacturing. Please read it 55.0 holes and the number is 55.5, so it did move a bit higher that now right anyway. So it's slightly positive uh over expectations, but anyway, what does it say? Oh yeah people are like, oh, how could how could the fed, let us go into recession? Won't they bail us out uh. Well, it depends if you know we go into if we go into a paper recession uh, which is two quarters, two negative quarters of gdp.

Right we go into that. What happens when uh, when we still have high inflation? Well then, at some point the fed's just going to go. Sorry, we don't care about your recession. We need to deal with with the inflation as long as the job market's still strong, relatively strong, just because we have a gdp induced recession.

Sorry and - and i think that's when you get mass panic right because then it's like wait a minute. Well, like the fed's supposed to bail us out and then they're, not uh and uh, you know that's that's! That's like a low chance, that's terrible worst case scenario but uh. That is, that is a scenario so uh, okay. Let's look at some other things here: uh! Okay, so we talked about rent yeah, but we already knew this.

We didn't even have to go through this uh. You know thing that i really want to pay attention to is real estate uh, but we're not gon na do that right now, right now we're gon na focus on stocks. Let's see tesla tesla agrees to drop self-driving feature that runs, stop signs yeah. So in case you didn't know this, there was a setting that you could basically california stop the stop signs uh, just like it slows on autopilot and then kind of keeps rolling, uh yeah, not the most brilliant idea.

There tesla she's, like rubbing it in the face of lawmakers, uh very bad, oh well, so uh ups surges after 2022 forecasts exceed wall street estimates. So, okay. This is interesting. I'm going to go through the uh, oh whatever um here.

Let's just do this right now. I don't really want to log in uh one of the things that's. The ups is up 12 on their earnings beat here, but, and it was mostly their forecast, it sounds like here. Let me see, am i logged into it.

It seems like every time i'm gone for two days: everything just logs itself out now there we go okay, good, so ups uh reported better than expected blah blah blah raising its dividend. I want to see the guide, because this does tell us something about consumers right and people. People spending more is is something that actually contributes to inflation. Like i mean like this is where it's this bizarre market, where we're in where it's like good news, is bad news right.

It's like oh yay, uh ups is doing better yay, the consumer's so strong. How can we go into a recession if the consumer's so strong? Oh, you can change really fast, but anyway uh. All this does right now is contribute to inflation. I want to thank all ups, okay, whatever i'm not going to read this, i want to see the forecast company operating margins are expected to be 13.7 in 2022, full year margins came in at 13.5, so that's actually a slight increase in operating profit margins.

Okay, that blows my mind. First of all, that absolutely blows my mind, because gas is is like ridiculously uh expensive right now and if ups can forecast a higher profit margin, higher profit margin, while gas is ridiculously expensive, then you know what that means right. Think about it margins up costs up. How is that possible price went up more? Oh, my gosh and then here's an update, fedex suspends some freight services due to staff shortages.

I'll tell you every place i went to in park. City utah was complaining about staffing shortages. Every single place, they don't have enough ski patrol, they don't have enough staff in the restaurant. They don't have enough lift workers uh.

I if know what's this nutty market anyway, okay, good, look at this little u-turn here on the spy, so we were having some uh. Some initial pain there, nice little u-turn here, good, let's go uh, take a look at tesla - was down as much as two something there we go. Good recovery here did fall down to about 9 10 before starting to reverse right now, sitting about 9, 21. good.

Okay. So i mean it always blows my mind that on days like this, which are technically volatile, we we the volatility index technically, goes down uh, but this is a more indice-based, so uh, you know anyway, uh we are seeing a little bit of a deeper red over Here specifically, look at this united wholesale mortgage and rocket mortgage. These guys just getting reamed and uh. The fear about rising interest rates has really been getting priced in for a while, but we just keep rising in more pain into these guys.

Here's terrible tom brady officially now announcing his retirement. I mean that was what a weekend i saw that over the weekend and was like. Oh, is he retiring? Oh, no, he's not retiring. Oh maybe he is oh okay yeah! I you have to give the guy props and what is he like? 44 years old uh in in you know, a career most people retire out at uh before they're 30..

It's quite impressive um. You know really really good at inflating balls too, but we won't go there so anyway uh. So what we got over here amc, i kind of given up some of its enthusiasm. You know so fine was the one that was really killing it.

Let me see if this keeps going here so far: yeah, okay, okay, so it had its little rally here to about 13.. It just couldn't break above 13. uh yeah yeah, all right. So, okay, all right.

So this is gon na be stuff for us to watch. Uh here, let's see open somebody says open's doing well. Take a peek here: open yeah, open students. That's nice! Okay, that's deflatable! Yeah! Oh! Oh! Oh sorry! I think you misspelled debatable.

That's funny! Uh anyway. Okay, so uh arrival had an insane day yesterday. I thought this thing was up like 20 or something like that: uh yeah 19, followed by 8.9, but look at the chart, folks, uh, quite scary, yeah we what we we had a three. We had a four a six over here, just seeing if we had any large outsized routes.

This is that is about the largest rally, though, that i've seen on arrival in a while, which i think is a good sign, because all of these other little greens right here have all been like three to six percent and the fact that we had a 19. It it makes me wonder like is, that is that a sign of of potentially potentially bouncing off of a bottom. I don't know yet. Obviously, certainly hindsight will tell us, but some of the some of the largest rallies we had yesterday uh yeah yeah, it's just uh tesla's - is really wanting to stay in that negative trend here for today, again great day yesterday, but uh negative trends stuck in that trend.

Today, uh really reiterating that psychology of uh okay, we had a good green day. This is a new opportunity to reload on the shorts. It's like the shotgun reloading, the shotgun for the shorts. You get those on green days and uh.

Then you've got a uh. You know potential sell opportunity as well. Okay, a little bit more. Let's look at a little bit more news here and uh.

Let's see! Okay, sorry, this is bears love barons by the way people always ask me: what's one of your favorite subs barons really good and kathy likes them uh, i'm not sponsored sponsored by ftx in the link down below which you definitely check out them, especially if you trade Crypto, if you're trading, crypto you'd be trading crypto there, but uh and check them out by the link down below or go to medkevin.com ftx us, but uh barons uh, you know not sponsored by them kathy uses them too. I suspect i suspect. I don't know that with certainty, but it seems like every time she talks. It feels like she's read the same barons articles i have anyway.

So all right, i wouldn't say anything. Super immediate here, a little bit more longer run commentary here, so cnbc not much dramatically. Uh, oh: what's this oh yeah bloomberg! Okay, so um check out tesla on the four hour chart: okay i'll! Try that in a sec europe, inflation woes fed signals. Okay, welcome to tuesday here's the latest federal reserve officials say they want to avoid unnecessary disrupting of markets.

Right markets may be wrong to think jerome powell's hawkish common signal and a mission by the fed. That's behind the curve. This is what bloomberg thinks, although sometimes bloomberg predicts stuff and totally the opposite happens, which is fair. I mean every prediction can go wrong, but anyway, u.s rent inflation may add to the impetus that the federal reserve has for higher interest rates, though the inflation cure could backfire right.

Well, that's, that's. The fear is it's kind of like. What's what's what do? We always say during covet: it was like um, you know the uh. The the cure is worth worse than the disease uh.

It is what a lot of folks were saying during copenhagen. I'm not trying to make like a political point here, but i'm trying to compare that to the fed like what, if the vaccine or or the cure you know the cocktail, that's going to help us against inflation actually ends up causing more problems uh than than the Inflation itself would it's like, maybe just let them rip just let the prices go up a bit. You know how long is it gon na last a year or two and then and then do prices stabilize? I don't know. Americans across income groups succeeded in recouping earnings lost in coven 19 in 2021, though gains for the poorest may be short-lived.

Uh, let's see here, europe, european markets are awash in hawkish enthusiasm, as traders bet on the fastest pace of policy tightening in more than a decade. Although germany and france had inflation that slowed - oh, that's bad, actually less than expected in january. That's true! I remember now. I think it was.

The eurozone numbers came in a little bit weaker, but uh the german numbers came in worse. You know this is actually kind of a funny irony here. You know somebody here wrote how to fix inflation, stop printing money, and you know how everybody's freaking out about all the inflation right now - and you know we are still printing money right now to the tune of 30 billion dollars next month. Uh, it's insane, actually is it? Isn't it 30 plus 15, it might be, might be as much as 45 but anyway, until march, we're still printing money, which is just absolutely insane.

It's like they're, worried about this runway inflation, yet they're, still, printing money and and then i always get the guys, hey kevin, you don't print money, okay, it's digitally print anyway. Whatever so uh, let's see amc, seven percent uh there's. I think a good little risk threshold for us to keep an eye on open doors still pushing. So if i gave up, let me see here, i didn't break 13.

Yet is what we're watching nope nope stuck at that 1288 number here. Excuse me: it's uh, i'm gon na leave krypto a little stuck in the mud for a bit. Oh whoa siri. Just don't do that! That's it short apple, always apple.

Doing today, all right! So, let's see here, okay, bouncing off that one percent loss here. Nvidia is actually way higher than where it was. I remember it was like 219 at one point. Remember it's at 242 right now.

So, even though it's down a percent, it's substantially better than what we saw. Look at that actually went down to 208. That's wild!.