Tesla stock analysis showing why my Tesla target price is $2,907.
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A complete walkthrough of my Tesla valuation model explaining why I have Tesla stock is the biggest investment in my portfolio.
In this video I will share my Tesla stock analysis and the numbers behind my Tesla stock forecast for the next 10 years.
There are going to be some challenges ahead with the 4680 cells, the ramping of production at the 4 existing factories and the construction of new factories in new locations.
And I have revised my target price down after the Tesla earnings call revealed that there continue to be issues with scaling battery production.
$TSLA #TSLA #Tesla #Elon #ElonMusk
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By Stock Chat

where the coffee is hot and so is the chat

35 thoughts on “Why tesla is a $3 trillion company no robots or robotaxis”
  1. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Collins Middleton says:

    The other car companies don't own gas stations like tesla owns charging stations with its name on the pumps….simply put

  2. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Yaniv Cohen says:

    exhausting, too much numbers. I wish there was a shorter version.

  3. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars kobeba says:

    I am glad I didn't stop DCA since 650 (CG advise is stop buying the dip) . $200 ++ per share gained! ๐Ÿ™‚

  4. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Big H797 says:

    Elon has been pretty accurate at is predicting Teslaโ€™s sales growth over the last decade. Macro issues like climate change could throw things off. Indonesia has a significant flooding issues, and water and power issues could slow down Teslaโ€™s growth at a number of locations around the world. Where the new Giga plants are located and how the relationship between US & China evolves will play a significant role. Those who bet against Tesla tend to get burnt. My guess is 15 million vehicles by 2030 is more likely than 10 million. $4500/share stock price is my conservative number if FSD or robotaxi happens the upside is much higher.

  5. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Reggie says:

    Sasha the Bear Genius

  6. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars subhash S K says:

    Interested to find out how many positions and at what price you have added to Man vs Market accountโ€ฆ.. Looking forward for an update?

  7. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars TheBooban says:

    The hype is back already? Time to buy ARKK!

  8. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Monkstameth says:

    Nice conservative model Sasha, great content!
    Compact car could be a single gigacasting. Very few parts. But please keep the steering wheel in.

  9. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars I Kaya says:

    The problem with making cars is that your old products compete with your new products. The biggest competition for a new Toyota Corolla is a used Toyota Corolla

    Even if there was just one auto company this company would not be as profitable as you might imagine because the competition is the existing stock

    At the moment tsla doesn't have this problem as there aren't many Tesla's on the road but at some point there will be and then it's shed to see how tsla can have better prices or margins than BMW And co the lux car makers

  10. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Jose Quesada says:

    Why is Berlin making 800k in year 3? I thought installed capacity there was 500k for Model Y.

  11. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Henry M. says:

    Not sure how you got to 2 trillion valuation only for the car business. What is the p/e ratio are you taking?

  12. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Rubz Czo says:

    I'll tell you what the Tesla valuation is without wasting my time looking at pie in the sky future data.

    891.45 at the end of today.

  13. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Niall Crocken says:

    Every time I watch these breakdown videos I always think, wow, how can one human be so smart! Great video Sasha, easy to digest & very informative. Youโ€™re the man!

  14. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Steve T says:

    Hey Sasha you are not too bad for a random YouTube guy. Only joking. Really think a compact model is needed shortly. Appreciate your vidโ€™s ๐Ÿ‘

  15. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Kdo Baggins says:

    I'm not a bull on Tesla, In fact I see the company with the same pessimistic view as I do Crypto, Im not interested..
    However I do enjoy your videos Sasha and often wonder if my views are justified..The data suggests Teslas future is extremely exciting and could see it becoming a Goliath of a company within 10 years..
    I'm waiting to see what the other car manufacturers are doing,they seem to be miles behind Tesla in every aspect…They seem to have missed the boat, I feel I missed the boat on investment in Tesla early on and will be only be investing in Tesla due to Fomo..
    Anyways,Great video Sasha.. Always enjoy your analysis and videos..

  16. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Kiran Jonns says:

    Would love you to add the probability you predict to your analysis.(like Emmit Peppers)

    I expect that probability to change with each change in analysis. That way we have an idea on your conviction.

  17. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars danielfonseca says:

    I have NIO stock I feel like there a good company like Tesla which I also have stock in. Has anyone got options on them?

  18. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Andy Moss says:

    I imagine you're already doing this but I'd keep a close eye on Berlin, with the way Russia is handling their country in terms of energy. As energy = production

  19. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Jake Siu says:

    I still think EV are overpriced for mass adoption. Not many can afford a 50k+ car. I know gas price is getting pretty high…still I think many rather pay that than buying an expensive car…at least they are not locked in for 5 yr monthly payments.

  20. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars RunningMan says:

    This model is always fun to walk through.

  21. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Ivan Hernandez says:

    Damn, you one Feo guy

  22. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Cizzy1983 Celiento says:

    Great analysis!!! But watch out the ramp of giga Shanghai!! I can probably produce 1 mill per year by itself, very curious when the add on building will be completed, what the numbers will be๐Ÿ™ tesla is my biggest position as well ๐Ÿ˜‰

  23. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Ali 19 says:

    44% of my pie is in Tesla !

  24. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Colin Taylor says:

    Sasha, you take a cool headed look at the car manufactures likely future. You eliminate most of the 'what-ifs' in the process. Your goal is study the possible, based on the proven. My query is whether there will be the end of globalisation, a la Zeihan, and the disruption of most things manufactured, most cars Tesla. What say you, Sasha?

  25. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Dovydas Korsakovas says:

    All of this is based if tesla have linear growth which they wonโ€™t so none of this will be accurate . 2023 and 2024 maybe close to your assumptions but anything after tesla tesla will grow even faster then now ๐Ÿ˜‰

  26. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Johan Nel says:

    Sasha, you forgot all about Tesla important other businesses. Notably BTC and Twitter. The mainstream media would be very disappointed in you.

    I was shouting 'Amen' on all the big things you touched on. You need a bigger voice in the Tesla community to tone down the 4680 and especially CTruck expectations. OK. FSD too. People are just horrendously over-optimistic on those 3 things.

    Thanks for agreeing w me ๐Ÿ˜.

  27. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Christopher Vipond says:

    You should start to hang out with Jeremy. You could pump 10x stocks every week with him.

  28. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Mike M says:

    Selling FSD means selling the cameras and the computer. Tesla FSD computer is optimised for neural networks AND power, It will therefore be a big number per vehicle but a big ask for manufacturers so will be much later as the problem must be fully solved for manufacturers to commit.

    Pivot tables are good for bringing togeter summaries. Or at least some grouping.

    I think power will be massive selling on home generation with stabalising plant and third party car charging.

  29. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Mo T says:

    Hey Sasha, your analysis sounds very reasonable and realistic. Great work presenting your forecast.

  30. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Black Circle says:

    hey sasha i saw freetrade changed their account structures again. now offering ยฃ5 a month accounts where you can have an isa. Looks like their postponing share lending as well. they still too expensive for me

  31. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Black Circle says:

    strongman wont like to hear this!!!

  32. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Yahalom Unger says:

    Thank you Sasha. Very conservative imo. But make sense big position long term look conservative. All the rrst will be upside (free call option on Tesla innovation, margins, software)

  33. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Marwan says:

    And there goes โ€œmr fire emojis since January โ€œ everything is fucked, sell everything.
    Oh hold on less viewers? Tried to ride coattail of chicken and got wrecked,letโ€™s me suck some Tesla butt . 3 trillion ??? Really? In your country, what you said is commonly defined as a bunch of โ€œbollocksโ€ you โ€œwankerโ€

  34. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars gazmend qose says:

    Hey Sasha great job as always. I do have to disagree with the output numbers from the Berlin and Texas factories when they are fully ramped . As a SpaceX employee and seeing how we double output every year yet we shrink footprint should give some insight on how Tesla improves output as well. The key factor which majority of people still donโ€™t understand is the relentless push to eliminate and simplify parts and processes. Texas will be able to exit well over 5 million cars when fully ramped , but these factories will never be fully ramped as the innovation will never stop . The 20 million cars by 2030 is a soft target and Tesla will surpass that . I think we will see a small car at some point cast in one shot with a IDRA machine . Game over when that is solved .

  35. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Jason Bennett says:

    Good job with this. I have a much simpler model that I use and get similar numbers to you in the "No Robots or Robotaxis" version. I also do a "what if China nationalizes Giga Shanghai" version and even that says the stock is worth $2431 now.

    What happens to your model if you delete Giga Shanghai in 2024 or 2025?

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