Everyone meet kevin here in this video, i'm going to talk about why i just bought stocks again. This video is brought to you by the daily upside, a wonderful summary newsletter. You can get on the day's happenings by the link down below, but more on them later. For right now we got to talk about.

Why would i buy especially when there's so much uncertainty in the marketplace right now and what the heck changed? Well, let's set this up. First, i'm going to keep this very simple before the geopolitical crisis in the uh. Well, in ukraine and uh, and with russia before that, there were two scenarios there, both of the scenarios involved, no war, maybe like some threats of war, but no actual war, and we were really evaluating. Okay, we've got no war, no war, high inflation, high inflation, wage price spiral or not, and in the wage price spiral scenario.

This is where, when workers have pricing power, they continue demanding higher wages, especially amongst lower wage earners. Businesses have to continue raising their prices to keep margins up and consumers keep paying for it. The only way you get out of this is, if you have aggregate demand, come down right. This ends up being very important, so hold on to that for a moment, statistically, the last information that we had by the way was the federal reserve in december telling us a bad thing would be a wage price spiral and the imf tells us the first sign Of a wage price spiral is when essentially in a labor report, you see that wages are rising faster than inflation and that's literally, what we had in january in the january labor report that we got at the beginning of february.

What happened? We saw evidence of a wage price spiral forming, which is very, very bad, because if you have a wage price spiral, even if the inflationary pressures of supply chains go away, the wage price spiral keeps prices going up. Very, very bad. In this scenario, the fed has to force a recession, because that's how you get rid of inflation easily. You force a recession, easy uh.

Now that doesn't mean we're, definitely going to see a recession. In fact, we're going to talk about my thoughts on a recession in just a moment, but, more importantly, this scenario has now changed. The second scenario is no wage price spiral and if there's no wage price spiral, then as supply chains were lent, then inflation comes down because prices start coming down right. So in the second base scenario, you're not really selling stocks anyway.

In the first scenario, if you believe in the wage price file, you're like okay, this is a problem, big problem. Potentially we got to pay attention to this, and maybe we got ta, you know sit on the sidelines a little bit and be a little patient. Okay, so what's changed? Well, i've gone through a few scenarios uh, and what i'm going to do is i'm going to provide you the bottom line scenario. So that way, you know exactly what i'm looking at and why do i feel it made sense to buy back in with a portion of my portfolio, i'm going to tell you how much i bought back in with and what i'm looking for in companies.

First, two quick notes: number one check out the daily upside via that link down below, and i've got a coupon code expiring for the amazing programs on building your wealth that expires on monday. Remember you get all of my live streams in that morning. Market open live streams where you see all of my reactions to what's going on in the market, and we could talk about those and strategize about those you get all my buy, sell alerts like the buying that i did about seven and a half million dollars over The last couple weeks in stocks and crypto check that out and i've got another 13 to deploy. So we've got some work to do so.

Make sure you check out those programs before monday, because the price will be going up at the end of monday. Also shout out to that daily upside check out the link seriously, because you're gon na find they've got some amazing, unbiased, reliable news about finance, and i love that about them. I spend hours every day looking through every news source i can, and i can't believe that they have this nice and concise summary team that basically puts together so much information and when you get started in the morning, you just want a quick five minute: hey here's! All the news in one place - i just want a five minute. What's going on in the world today.

Well, here you've got former investment bankers, journalists and experts putting this information together for you in just five minutes, and it's totally free. So you may as well give it a try check out that link in the description down below. So you can get those stories directly to your inbox, every single day check that out and let's get into why i bought okay, so i've i've put together many scenarios on this, and i've already explained a lot of these thoughts, to course, members. But one of the things that i wanted to do here was try to give you a concise summary of the scenario.

So this scenario is really an update to scenario number one, which is what i believe we would likely be heading down and that's now changed scenario. Number one was the no war, high inflation but wage price spiral and then the fed being forced to force a recession that has shifted now now this doesn't mean go rush to stocks and and go all in, but i did buy i'm going to explain this and My strategy for the rest of the year, at least based on the outlook that i can have right now, so here's what changed. First of all, the federal reserve is likely at least based on comments from barkin, daley, mester and uh and bullard that yeah. There is an upside risk to inflation, but russia, ukraine, bring unexpected uncertainties.

The european central bank is talking about potentially delaying stimulus, withdrawals. Energy bills could actually rise as well as food bills could rise, which lead to more inflation, but those inflation reasons have there. Basically, there's a scapegoat for that inflation right. It's not companies just raising prices, it's companies raising prices because of oil and food possibly related to ukraine, and now the fed has another excuse to say well inflation's transitory.

We just have to wait for the russia, ukraine disaster to end and then oh and then supply chains will rebuild and we just continue down this transitory path. And so my belief is that the fed is actually going to u-turn and we've already seen this in commentary. People that were super hawks are now turning a little bit more dovish. The federal reserve ends up being more dovish, as the international community is uncertain about what is going to be the fallout of the ukraine, russia crisis, they're, going to be patient and wait for more data.

This is why right now fed funds. Futures markets are pricing. In only a quarter percent rate hike march 16th at the next fomc meeting, they're pricing, this in with 90 certainty. Now there is fear that a short-term uh, a short-term crisis in ukraine and russia could just lead to a short-term spike of inflation and then we're kind of potentially back to scenario number one which is uh.

Oh, we have a wage price spiral and we need to deal with crushing inflation uh, but because this is so uncertain, mixing a pandemic and now this war aspect, i think the fed is not going to full vulcarus like they did. Essentially in the 70s. I'm calling for a pseudo volcker ring in the event. We end up going into a wage price spiral where they end up just believing that we need to get.

We need more time to get through this higher inflation and we're going to be more consistent with how we raise hikes and i'm guessing they're just going to go 25, 25, 20, 25, 25 and so on, probably for the next eight to 12 fed meetings. So that's all of this year, the seven more meetings and the first half of next year, hike, hike, hike, hike, hike, all at 25 basis points and they're gon na go super chill super chill offloading of the balance sheet and they're not going to end up going Super dark and rug pulling us because of the uncertainty of ukraine, so, even though i believe we're still going to be victims of a temporary wage price spiral, i do think the fed is turning more dovish in addition to the fed turning more dovish. The fed has also already told us that, as food and energy prices go up, we might actually reduce aggregate demand, because people might have less money and remember what the condition was for getting rid of the wage price spiral. I told you to remember this at the beginning, video at least, i think i did uh aggregate demand going down so now.

Why would aggregate demand uh go down? Well i mean a prolonged war. Maybe not only would lead to higher energy costs potentially lower savings over time, because we have less stimulus, uh and and over time, there's uncertainty in markets. I mean look, it's not like you're going to go to disneyland and spend less money, but gdp can fall due to a reduction in travel in certain areas. You see global demand, kind of fall at certain companies uh, especially those related to eastern europe.

Travel in that area kind of voids a down to a halt, people start having fear about nato and world war. Three and nuclear starts going trending on twitter and terrorism. Fears start coming up and splinter cell fears start coming up like all this disaster will have the effect of somewhat reducing demand. Again, i still think you're gon na go to disneyland.

Don't get me wrong. It's not like you're gon na go to disney and everybody's gon na, be like oh gosh. There's a war in ukraine. No like it's terrible, that's not gon na happen, but you're still gon na see some compression and demand.

So what does this all mean like? What's the bottom line of all of this? Well, the bottom line is the fed because of this invasion is very likely going to be more dovish. They've already started becoming more dovish. The fed is more uncertain and they've already been uncertain about hiking rates. I do think they're still going to do a 25 basis.

Point hike. I do believe that they've made that crystal clear that it's time for liftoff in march and ukraine doesn't super impact us right now, but the long term effects of the uncertainty will lead. The fed to want to be more data dependent will be less likely to want to volca us as soon and take their time more they're going to look at the data. What data are they going to look at? Well? The next thing they're going to look at is the march 4th labor report and the march 10th cpi report so make sure you are ready uh to to react to those reports.

Now i believe there could still be a lot of fear that ends up popping up between now and march 16th, though it's not gon na take a lot in my opinion, for let's say this uh this ukraine uh crisis ends quickly, it's entirely possible. Maybe it doesn't. Maybe it worsens, i don't know uh. Maybe somebody from the fed comes out and says some nonsense or a bad report comes out on the 4th or 10th.

I think there is a lot of reason to have uncertainty between now and march 16th to where i don't think it's necessary to necessarily rush into the market and go all in right away because you're going to miss the boat. I don't really see us going to all-time highs until all of the ukraine, russia issues are resolved and we've already felt what a few interest rate hikes are. Like demand stays high and inflation starts coming down that those are going to be our catalyst for going back to all-time highs problem is, i don't think q1 earnings which we're going to start getting in april are going to be anywhere near as strong. We saw in q4 so i actually think, even after march 16th, we're going to be four weeks away from earnings season, we're probably not going to have as beautiful of earnings and we're going to have a lot of complaints about oh q1.

You know people don't have as much money. Uh people didn't spend as much. In q1, ukraine made people nervous spending went down and stuff, so i don't think there's necessarily a reason to like super rush into stocks, but i did invest about 43 of my portfolio in crypto and stocks. The rest is cash.

I closed my gold position yesterday morning and if you look at what gold did you'll know that i was in my course member live stream when gold was at that peak, and i was with course members saying. I think now that the incursion is happening. We're going to be at peak fear for gold sold and gold fell right afterwards. Uh, it's not my fault.

I can't move a 10 trillion dollar market. It's just something to know. So if you want these kind of alerts, just to see where my head is or why i'm thinking of something it's i think of it as kind of like a siren like? Oh that's what kevin's thinking right now check out those programs. Remember you get lifetime access to these.

A lot of people are bundling stocks on psychology, money and the wealth group, but anyway uh. So i went into stocks and crypto and what am i looking for? Not a lot in crypto, but definitely in certain stocks. What am i looking for in stocks, i'm looking for unimpeded, actual growth and high margins see, i think, the end, the uh, sorry, the etsy run is a little bit ridiculous. That we've seen the last two days because their guide for q1 was ten percent low, but the market's totally ignoring it just because it had been low square did decently.

They met expectations. So i i respect the run-up on square. I think that's fair. I don't know how long it'll last we've had a lot of convictionless rallies in this market and again, like i said, there's so much uncertainty still ahead.

I don't think you need to like rush in to this market patience i think, is going to be rewarded in 2022, but the big issue, in my opinion, you want to look for, is margin. You want companies that have big growth and margin profitability, so they got to be profitable. Profitless tech is just not sexy right. Now, it's not going to be sexy until we get back to the euphoric times.

In my opinion, i wouldn't try to bet on a short squeeze. I would be looking for high margin, high growth companies. What are some examples of these apple tesla end phase. Those are some good examples.

Nvidia amd great margins. I mean these are. These are some really strong players to some degree disney trade desk, google. These are great companies as well.

Now i don't own all of these. I love these companies. I don't own all of them. I went a little bit too concentrated, probably in a few of those that i mentioned here, but look, i don't think we're rushing to the moon anytime soon.

Obviously, i'm up from the purchases that i made yesterday uh in the morning and i saved a lot sitting out some of the drama of the market but, like i said, i'm in no rush. But i am seeing some positive signs from the fed and i do think as well as the ecb and putting all this together, and i do think these uncertainties can help move aggregate demand down, which is thankfully good for hopefully minimizing that wage price spiral. So i'm very excited check out the daily upside by the link down below next the link for the courses. Thank you.

So much for being here, we'll see you next one bye.