Welcome back to the channel everyone today, i want to talk about whether institutions are a threat to the amc squeeze. Do institutions actually hold over 50 of the float, and is this a bad thing, or is this actually a good thing so stay tuned and let's make some money, but before i dive into the video again, i want to hold another moment's silence for what's currently going On over in ukraine at the moment, as i've said previously, i'm not going to sit here in silence during the video for an entire minute, but i would encourage you to pause the video and take a moment silence. But now i want to dive straight in with the key information, so blue ice and lou have recently been tweeting about the amc, institutional ownership, blue eyes. Tweeted saying i recently called my broker: it's a well-respected shop in new york and asked him a favor which is to look at the percentage of institutional holding for amc, his broker called back and said blue ice or bill.

It looks like it's about 47 to 52. He got quiet and i said what he said unless it's a mega cap or a blue chip. I don't think i've ever seen this and then he said our retail holdings here are 21 million shares private customers who asked us to buy so whatever the percentage is. We no longer hold 80 of the flow say what you want, but, as we have said, this is a dangerous play for many reasons.

Question is: where did these institutions get? These shares from blue eyes, then said so. It seems based on the video i posted institutions. Only around 54 of amc and as lou and i have been saying we do not own 80 of the float anymore. Well, it looks like we don't many people need to rethink their numbers and the question becomes: did the community that claims they are holding sell, shares in amc or did the amount of synthetics grow? Only time will tell now the first thing that i thought was unusual about all of this was a broker thinking that 47 to 52 institutional ownership is unusual for a stock.

I've seen many small cap stocks that have over 90 institutional ownership and i've also seen many small cap stocks that have five or ten percent institutional ownership. So i don't really think 47 to 52. Ownership is very unusual whatsoever, it's middle of the road, and i also think that this specific employee is talking about the institutional ownership of shares held by this specific shop. Maybe this institution holds 21 million shares on behalf of retail investors and another 21 million shares.

On behalf of institutions and therefore the institutional ownership at this specific shop is around 47 to 52, but from looking at fintel and the recent 13f filings, it's very clear that the recent institutional ownership is 187 million shares or 36 of the overall flow. Now maybe blue ice has got mixed up by adding the 13d and 13g filings on top of the institutional ownership, because there's around 80 or 90 million shares held here and 187 million shares, plus an additional 80 to 90 million shares, brings you to 54 or 55 Institutional ownership. Now that would be fair to assume, because here it says 36, excluding the 13d and 13g forms, but technically you don't actually add the 13ds and 13gs. If you scroll down to the definition of 13d and 13g filings, we can see that institutions can submit either 13d or 13gs or a 13f filing, but if they do submit their 13d and 13g filing, they then also have to submit a 13f filing after that which Reports, the total value of shares, which may be a different value to the 13d or 13g.

This is because the 13d and 13g is a filing for groups of investors, where a 13f is to file the total shares or all of the shares, and therefore some institutions like blackrock and vanguard, submit a 13d a 13g and a 13f. But you don't actually include these together, because the 13f encapsulates all of the shares and therefore the institutional ownership of the legit float is definitely 36 technically, it's slightly lower. If you include the shortage shares on top of this because then the total flow isn't 513 million shares it's around 620 million shares and the institutional ownership will still be around 187 million. Now this institutional ownership has increased over the last six months from around 120 million shares up to 140 million shares and then finally, up to around 180 190 million shares.

So, therefore, the institutional ownership of the legit float notice that i'm specifying the legit float has actually increased and therefore retail investors no longer own 80 of the legit flow. But we all know that there is not just 513 million amc shares floating around there's tons and tons more due to all the synthetics and therefore, while we may not own eighty percent of the legit flow, we still more than likely own 450 of the float. All in all and institutions have only increased their holdings from 120 to 180 million shares now 120 to 180 million shares isn't really much of a big jump, because obviously we, the retail investors, still hold 2 to 2.5 billion shares when you include all the synthetics. Maybe it's way more, maybe it's way less because i don't know the exact value of synthetics, but to give credit where credit is due.

Maybe blue ice and lou do have an inside source and therefore now in quarter one of 2022 institutional ownership is going to increase. Again to maybe even as high as 250 million shares, now i've drawn a bit of a diagram to explain whether this is a good thing or a bad thing. Is it good that institutions hold 180, maybe even 250 million shares and own a larger portion of the shares, an issue, or is that a bad thing guys, if you haven't already be sure to sign up to moomoo, using the link in the description below and make Your first deposit to get up to five free shares, valued up to 3 500 each and a free share of amc as well. In my opinion, moomoo is one of the best commission free trading platforms, because it helps you to trade like a pro mumu has over 90 technical indicators and advanced trading tools like stock screeners, for example.

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Here that way, it keeps all of the required information in one easy to use platform. Now i think the first question we have to ask ourselves is: do you believe that there are any amc synthetic shares? If you personally do not believe there is a single amc synthetic share, this is a bad thing, because it means that amc, retail investors, the apes, have paper handed their shares and sold some shares directly to the institutions. This means that apes do not own 80 of the total flow, including the synthetics, because in this instance you're believing that there aren't any synthetics and therefore apes own. A smaller percentage of shares outstanding, therefore, institutions own more and can continue lending out these shares.

They can also make it really really easy for the shorts to cover their shares, as they now hold basically half of the float and could sell all of these shares at really low values in order for the shorts to cover. But i personally do not believe this is the truth, because i believe there are way more than zero synthetic shares. Currently an issue for amc. I personally believe there's at least two billion synthetics, leading to a total of around 2.5 billion shares the log.

The flow data came out recently, which suggests there could be even more synthetic shares than we even thought, maybe even as high as four or five billion synthetics in total and i'll talk about that in another video. So, let's assume that you do believe there are indeed synthetic shares. The next question we have to ask ourselves is: have any of these shares that are held by amc, retail investors being paper-handed? Maybe the institutions bought an additional 60 million shares, or maybe even additional 130 million shares after december from us, the amc apes. Is this a good thing? Well, actually, i believe yes, it potentially is a good thing, because it means that institutions have bought the paper-handed shares.

Not the shorts the shorts haven't bought. These paper-handed shares to cover their short positions. Actually, institutions have been buying these shares and continuing to go long on these shares and are not allowing the short hedge funds to cover their shorts. On the other hand, if you do not believe that any of the amc apes have been holding their shares, that means that zero shares have been paper-handed and therefore for the institutions to buy even more shares.

It means the market makers must have created more synthetic shares and synthetic shorts. Hedge funds have then shorted these shares and sold them directly to these hedge funds and therefore, if the hedge funds have bought an additional 60 to 130 million more synthetic shares, it means there's tons more synthetics that have been created and again. This is a good thing because it means there's tons more naked shorts that need to be covered when amc squeezes. This is just an additional 60 to 130 million more shorts that must be covered during the short squeeze which will elevate the price of amc even higher.

Now guys, i also wanted to talk about the amc chart using the moomoo platform over the last few months. Amc fell to its lows of around 13.40 before bouncing off back to around the 21 region. Obviously, over the last week or so, amc has been falling along with the wider market down to around 16 per share, but there is a strong area of support between thirteen dollars, forty cents and around sixteen dollars per share. I personally don't think the amc will be revisiting that thirteen dollar per share area, because it ties in nicely with the short interest figures you can see here in the bottom right hand, corner amc is currently hitting an all-time high for short interest percentage and also for Shares on loan and shares, shorted amc currently has around 21 short interest, with around 107 108 million shares currently shorted.

We can also see that the current borrowing rate on moomoo is around four percent, which is higher than most other platforms. There's also only around 950 000 shares available to borrow, which is much lower than we've seen in recent weeks, where there was at some times around 10 million shares to borrow, as i spoke about in my catalysts, video the other day. I think all of this is lining up nicely with the 100 utilization to suggest that amc is just about to go on its next run up, but now i also wanted to talk about the motivation behind some of these institutions and why they're buying more amc shares. I want to ask the question: are these institutions buying shares in order to try and stop or kill the squeeze and allow other short hedge funds to survive? Personally, i don't think this is the case.

An institution's motivation is to make money. Therefore, why would they buy loads of shares and lose tons and tons of money in order to prevent the squeeze? You may say tom they're, making tons and tons of money from lending out these shares to short hedge funds and allowing them to short, more shares. Surely they're making more money from share lending than they're losing from buying the amc shares now? Actually this isn't the case as i'm going to show you in a minute. You may also say tom they're going to buy amc, shares and sell them just above where they bought them for to make a small profit they're going to sell far far too early.

Now. I personally do think the institutions will likely sell sooner than us apes, but i don't think they're gon na sell early in order to make like one dollar profit on every share. I think these institutions will let the squeeze go ahead and they can make tons and tons of money during the squeeze, but they can still end up selling early and being responsible and safe low risk and all of that kind of stuff they won't hold to thousands And thousands or hundreds of thousands of dollars per share, but i don't think they're gon na be selling amc shares at two dollars above what they paid for them. So, let's look at exactly how much money these institutions have lost so far on their amc purchases compared to the amount of money they've made from the amc share.

Lending in quarter, two institutions held 120 million amc shares quarter three 140 million. So therefore, they added an extra 20 million shares in quarter four 180 million, so they added an extra 40 million shares in quarter three, the price of amc ranged from 28 a share all the way up to 57 a share. So, let's assume these hedge funds, with these institutions purchase 20 million amc shares at the very, very lowest point at twenty-eight dollars a share again in quarter four, the price of amc ranged from twenty dollars a share to forty six dollars a share. So again, let's assume they bought the entire forty million shares at the lowest point at twenty dollars.

A share twenty million shares at twenty eight dollars. A share is five hundred and sixty million dollars. Forty million shares at twenty dollars. A share is eight hundred million dollars and in total that's one point: three: six billion dollars these institutions spent on amc shares in the second half of the year 1.36 billion dollars divided by the total 60 million shares that they purchased is an average purchase price of 22 dollars per share at the absolute minimum right now, amc is trading at 17, a share meaning their total share.

Value of those 60 million shares is around 1.02 billion dollars, meaning that the institutions so far have lost 314 million dollars on the amc shares they've purchased. After the june run up now, if we head over to iborodesk the share lending fee, this red line here has been one percent at one singular day here it did jump to six percent, but every single day it's been at one percent flat and therefore 60 million Shares times by this average purchase price of 22, a share multiplied by one percent is 13 million dollars, they've earned from share lending in the last year. Obviously, these shares have only been bought in the second half of the year. Therefore, you've got to divide it by two and therefore in the second half of the year, they've lost 340 million dollars by holding their amc shares and only generated 6.5 million dollars in share lending fees, and therefore these institutions, like blackrock and vanguard that have bought amc And are lending out, their shares are still down massively because the price of amc has fallen so drastically and therefore the reason why these institutions are holding amc is because they know it's going to squeeze and they know they are going to be able to sell amc.

For more than they bought it, for now you may say tom, that's exactly the point. They're gon na make their small amount of money lending out the shares. Then they're gon na sell amc as soon as they're in the green and crush the squeeze. But i think you have to remember how many shares these institutions actually hold compared to the amount of shares that we hold and compared to the amount of shares that are currently shorted.

We know that institutions hold around 180 million shares, but when you include all of the synthetic shares and the naked shorts, we know there's about 2.5 billion shares total 2 billion synthetics, which means around 2 billion shortage shares. Therefore, the institutions can sell 180 million shares directly to the shorts very early on during the squeeze in order to try and crush the squeeze, but the shorts need to cover their entire 2 billion shortage. Shares 180 million shares is a very small portion of the total 2 billion shortage shares or 2 billion naked shortage shares, and therefore 180 million shares doesn't really make much of a dent in the squeeze. I think it's important to remember that on the 1st of june, moderate capital sold in one singular batch 8.5 million shares they sold their shares for around 25 to 27 a share, and there was barely a dent because of how many amc shares were being traded on.

The 1st and the 2nd of june there was hundreds of millions of shares that changed hands every single day in the first second and third of june, and therefore 8.5 million shares barely made a single den. On top of that, we also saw wonder selling around 43 44 million shares in the april and may period which again barely made a dent and amc still ran up in june. So in total the institutions have around 118 million shares of amc that they could sell. During the squeeze, they could sell 180 million shares in one singular block.

That would obviously have a massive dent and will cause the price of amc to drop drastically, but as these hedge funds are still being liquidated, that still leaves around 1.82 billion synthetics. That need to be covered after they've bought 180 million shares from the institutions. Again, the institutions could sell these in batches of 10 or 20 million shares. Therefore, they can sell multiple times over during the squeeze in order to try and stop it or to try and confuse us to think that the squeeze is over.

But again, i think it's important to remember that this 180 million shares is still a fairly small portion of the total 2 billion synthetics that need to be covered and the total 2 billion synthetics that need to be brought back from us retail investors. I think it's also important to remember that during the squeeze, when these institutions sell off these 118 million shares, they aren't necessarily going to be selling them directly to the short hedge funds to enable them to cover their shores. When these institutions list to sell those 180 million shares in the market, they're also going to be purchased by us, retail investors and they're also going to be purchased by other institutions and other hedge funds that want to buy more amc during the squeeze. And therefore, even though some institutions like blackrock and vanguard, have 180 million shares in total to sell, it doesn't necessarily mean that all 180 million shares are going to be purchased by those short hedge funds to cover their shorts.

They may also be bought by retail investors. Like you and i and other hedge funds that want to profit from the squeeze, yes, the institutions do have a lot of shares to sell and it will likely drop. The price of amc. Quite heavily.

Amc may run up to 500 a share during the squeeze and then fall all the way down back to around 200 a share, but all those shares still need to be covered. All of these institutions still will be being liquidated and when they are finished being liquidated. All of these shorts will be bought back, and not only will these 180 million shares worth of shorts be brought back, but their full 2 billion synthetics and therefore, all in all, i don't really think the institutions are much of a threat to the amc squeeze. Yes, they may play the squeeze a little bit and may potentially force some people into thinking.

The squeeze is over, but overall, in total, 180 million shares is still a very small portion of the total two billion synthetic shorts. Guys be sure to. Let me know down in the comments below whether you think that institutions are a threat to the amc squeeze and, as always guys, if you enjoyed this video, be sure to check out some of my others. Alternatively, subscribe to the channel and ding that notification bell, because that way, you'll be alerted when i upload a new video cheers.