Well folks, this is awkward. Joe biden just spoke in front of the nation and discussed the disaster of the debt ceiling, and he said some pretty impactful things that are going to be pretty important. I want to give you a quick preface: we've got three big issues right now: we've got a one trillion dollar bipartisan infrastructure package that was passed by the senate, but the house is waiting to pass it until the three and a half trillion dollar infrastructure package passes. The three and a half trillion dollar infrastructure package can't be negotiated until the 1 trillion one passes, thanks to kirsten cinema and joe manchin, who don't want to negotiate until the 1 trillion package passes.

Well, progressives don't want to pass the 1 trillion package until the 3.5 trillion package passes. At the same time, republicans are saying we're not going to help democrats raise the debt ceiling. If we do not raise the debt ceiling, the united states will default on its debts, which will be the first time in history. The united states has ever done so, and joe biden just spoke about exactly this.

The debt ceiling i'm going to break down exactly what joe biden said. Now it's worth noting that right now we have until approximately october 18th, plus or minus a few days. Thanks to what janet yellen has told us that we will run out of money by october 18th and if we do not make it and we do not raise the debt ceiling by the time we run out of money, we'll stop making payments on treasury bonds, which Means we're defaulting on our bond obligations, which probably will spike interest rates which could potentially lead as bond prices fall essentially, which could lead to a changing in the credit score of the united states risk for the nation or for the world. Even for that matter and could potentially lead to us losing uh the reserve status of currency for for the world, the world uses the united states dollar as a reserve currency.

We also trade oil in dollars, i mean so much is done in dollars, because the world trusts the dollar the most. But what? If we have a crisis with the u.s dollar, because our our congress fails us and then all of a sudden we have a chinese yuan or a euro that takes over, could have crazy implications for the united states. But anyway, let's uh break through or break down. Rather, what joe biden just said so joe biden just came out and said that raising the debt limit is about paying off our old debt, it has nothing to do with paying for his infrastructure plan.

Here, he's talking about a three and a half trillion dollar plan. He does then say that his plan is paid for his three and a half trillion dollar plan is paid for through higher taxes, so it's not really adding to the debt. Instead, it's republicans who are standing in the way by being reckless and dangerous. Now that's joe biden's point of view.

Obviously, republicans disagree. The reason republicans disagree is republicans, say: hey, look. We don't support you, taking advantage of a 50 50 senate and using the budget reconciliation process to try to jam through three and a half trillion dollars of social spending. We don't support.

That is what republicans are saying and so republicans say: hey. If you want to raise the debt ceiling, why don't you just raise the debt ceiling using budget reconciliation, now budget reconciliation? The problem with this is it's a complicated process that could take about three weeks to get done at a fast rate could take about three weeks to get done, which means we need to fly on this now, if we're going to use it to raise the debt Ceiling uh, it needs to be amended frequently after the fact it's complicated, convoluted, but budget reconciliation can only be used by democrats one more time this year, and that means democrats are either going to do the three and a half trillion dollar infrastructure package or raise the Debt ceiling, or they can rush and try to get an infrastructure package done that'll, probably be smaller than three and a half trillion dollars and raise the debt ceiling through budget reconciliation. I expect that to happen. I expect some sort of smaller package to get done where everybody kind of gets the minimums they raise the debt ceiling and everything gets done on time.

In the meantime, stock markets will be freaking out over this which, in my opinion, is great, buy the dip opportunity. But anyway, without the debt ceiling, we can't pay benefits to veterans social security payments. Payments on our bonds says joe bidens. He says that the reason we have hit the debt ceiling is because of the reckless tax and spend policies of donald trump, saying that donald trump added eight trillion dollars of bills.

We have to now pay in fairness. A lot of those were coveted relief, uh packages that were passed in a bipartisan infrastructure, manual or bipartisan manner, not infrastructure. Joe biden mentions that defaulting would take our economy over the cliff and it would be a self-inflicted wound. That is a phrase by the way that janet yellen used last week.

In testimony with congress, he says that failure to raise the debt limit will call into question the debts we've already in incurred. It will undermine treasuries, threaten the reserve status of the dollar. Our american credit rating will be downgraded which will increase interest rates on cars and homes, and he says that this will actually shrink the value of americans retirement accounts and your savings could be affected. Your pocketbook could be impacted as soon as this week.

Thanks to this republican stunt, he says this republican stunt is hypocritical, dangerous and disgraceful and says that republicans should stop playing russian roulette with the u.s economy. Now joe biden is being very clear here that he wants to get republicans and democrats on board to raise the debt ceiling. What you need is 60 votes in the senate. He calls this a super majority, and that is true.

It is a type of super majority, though it's not a two-thirds super majority, it's a three-fifth super majority and basically you need 10 republicans to say, hey we'll. We agree to end debate on raising the debate that takes 60 votes. Then you can raise the debt ceiling with just 51 votes, which democrats have they've got 50 votes in the senate, plus kamal harris as a tiebreaker, but they need 60 votes to end debate unless they want to use budget reconciliation which again they can only use one Time so right now it's kind of like crap. If the democrats use that on budget reconciliation, they're thinking they're like oh well, then we might be able to use it on uh on the infrastructure plan.

So it's a pretty pretty tenuous place right now, in terms of. Are we going to see tax increases? Are we going to get the infrastructure plan? Is the infrastructure plan just going to completely die? Are we going to default? I don't actually expect us to default, but the markets are freaking out over this right now, apparently, a mitch mcconnell sent joe biden a letter about 10 minutes before joe biden spoke, he's gon na end up talking to uh mitch mcconnell. The press asked that uh the press asked joe biden uh the question schumer vows not to raise the budget uh or the debt ceiling through reconciliation. If push comes to shove, what plan is more important, your infrastructure plan or the debt ceiling? Joe biden punted? That question said they're both important uh and says he won't cross that bridge.

There was also a question from a reporter that said: hey chris kirsten cinema was chased into a press room yesterday, joe manchin had people show up in kayaks to his boat, to pressure him to make a decision or to get something done because joe biden's blaming mansion And cinema for being the two democratic senators that are kind of the holdouts, because if they had them, they could get budget reconciliation done on the 3.5 trillion and the debt ceiling all in one. It should be done, but joe manchin and cinema have made it very clear that they don't want to even negotiate until the 1 trillion package has passed and wanted to be much smaller. Like one and a half to two trillion. Dollars is kind of the plan that they're expecting after this uh joe biden actually said that uh he said in response to what size should his package be, he said.

Well, i wanted it to be three and a half trillion dollars. I laid that out, but it's not going to be that it's going to be less so he has officially conceded that his infrastructure package is going to be smaller than he told everyone. So i would make that very clear. Joe biden is now making it very clear.

His package will be smaller than he told everyone, it would be, then uh he says, can or he's asked. Can you guarantee that we won't breach the debt ceiling and he says no, i cannot it's up to mitch, mcconnell and uh. He does say. I can't believe that the u.s might actually be in a situation where we're not paying our debts, but it would be.

The republicans fault is basically what you're saying so joe biden's. Really just trying to blame. Republicans republicans are like you have a bunch of reconciliation. Do it yourself, you don't need us, because you're just trying to hold budget reconciliation hostage to do your three and a half trillion dollar plan.

Republicans obviously see their inaction on the debt ceiling as the perfect opportunity to leverage democrats and prevent what they believe is three and a half trillion dollars of wasteful spending from getting done so yeah. The debt ceiling is being held hostage by both sides. It's not just republicans, it's democrats holding it hostage as well. They're, both playing the game here and they're, going to be using the bully pulpit, like joe biden, is doing today to to really try to convince the other side.

What joe biden's trying to do is get a bunch of angry letters going to republicans uh over this right now and, and that might be uh successful for the time being, we'll see what happens but uh my expectation here again a reduced three and a half trillion Dollar package, maybe a one and a half trillion dollar package, plus maybe uh the debt ceiling and well i mean almost certainly the debt ceiling increase and uh, maybe less tax increases and less spending. Who knows? Maybe some things will get cut like the length of child tax credit or things like that. So we'll see, this is what joe biden just said, and the stock market is freaking out a little bit. Uh you've got uh most of the indices in the red today.

You've got uh uh yeah, actually, you've got the dow jones down a percent s p down one point: three: four percent nasdaq technology is down two point: two percent russell, two thousand down one point: one: seven percent volatility index up: eleven percent and the bond market. Right now stable at about one point: four: seven on the ten-year treasury, all right folks, thank you so much for watching what joe biden just said. Hopefully this is insightful for you and if it was make sure to hit that subscribe button thanks so much for watching we'll see you next time you.