What happened yesterday was very interesting. The narrative has begun mainstream media is going to to try and feed you this narrative and a repeat narrative in which we are in a recession. Despite having two negative quarters of gdp and make no mistakes about it this second quarter will come out negative as well so they're going to explain to you why. According to the real definition of a recession to negative quarters of gdp are not enough you need some amorphic thing that you cannot prove right or wrong an economic downturn that lasts.
A few weeks or months or whatever something that really isn't that easy to quantify and that's exactly what they want they're going to explain to you that the job market is so hot that recession cannot be now three and a half percent unemployment is indeed very very low historically foreign unemployment. But you have to understand that what they won't tell you is that the job market is a lagging indicator. It takes time for the job market to catch up with a recession. Now trust me as things become more and more expensive look at yesterday's data about car payments america's now paying average of 700 on monthly car payments.
Seven hundred that means that tequila corolla or honda civic is not like 700 bucks. We used to get a hummer for that price for a monthly payment so things are getting more expensive cars obviously you just heard but we know what happened to housing. We know what happened to food. We know what happened to gas.
So everything is getting more expensive now how do i know that things are getting worse and employment is actually going to catch up the recession look at the personal savings rate on moody's it went down from 34 to 5 over the course of the last six months. Now here's the crazy part now moody's actually measured this as a part of their kind of measurement of how people are managing their savings. How much they're tapping into the savings and how much they're spending now. It's essentially like free cash.
Flow but for individuals okay so check this out this. Point we have 54. Which means that we have about five cents of free income after tax on the dollar. This is as low as we had since 2008 you remember what happened 2008 exactly so it means that people are eating away at their savings.
Actually. The american savings in aggregate. Also on moody's is down 100 billion since december. So things are slowly starting to get worse.
But because people have so much money stash stacked over the course of the two years remember how much money went through the system. Everybody got a lot of money so now people are slowly starting to tap into that thing they're more expensive and the employment market will have to catch up because if people are spending less on discretionary items companies are making less revenues. They're firing more people those people don't have the same amount of income to spend on other goods that means that less revenues for other companies etcetera. It's a vicious cycle on top of that higher interest rates are going to push the cost of debt and make capital more expensive more scarce and you know the drill. So beware of this false narrative in mainstream media that employment market is so hot. We cannot be in recession because they're lying to you the employment market collapses last after everything is done for remember where you heard it first this is the next transitory scam that they want to run.
By Stock Chat
where the coffee is hot and so is the chat
I heard it first at Peter Schiff podcast. About many months ago.
Hehe 🙂 I love your morning puffy face 🙂
Yeah the thing is they can change and manipulate the numbers so they can say whatever it is they want to tell us! You know…. Kinda like the market!!
$700 for a Honda Civic? And people told me $800 for a Tesla model 3 was a lot! Sheeesh
I Thot the republican have been saying we are in a recession? It's to their advantage
Stupid narrative. The optimistic one would be: it’s a recession, but so far unemployment is low and that is a good thing (for now).
Honestly Do we really need any “central authority” to announce these things anymore? More often than not they are either clueless or straight up lying.
So genius chicken was right, I think he actually is a genius when it comes to understanding this market
I’m long term on my plays so this doesn’t matter. I Let them do their thing and I’ll do mine. Life is good.
28th July is “Technical Recession” day.
agree , get ready for the verbal olympic games by the FED.
and yes extremely hard to "predict" how will the markets react to that, and true we still have some crazy days ahead.
Thanks for the info but dude are you ok? The right side of your face looks like your having a stroke or an allergic reaction or something. Hope your good 👍
I saw this title on market watch lol "The U.S. won’t officially be in recession if GDP shrinks again — and here’s why"
Nice insight,
Yeah we are fuckt
I felt like I was in the splash zone at sea world with all the spit that was flying lol
The brandonites need to be punished.
The US is coming of a huge 2021 gain and high inflation. A small GDP decrease for 2 quarters isn't catastrophic… It's part of a normal economic cycle. Employment is at an all time high in the US, and in Canada. Things will go down, but it's not Armageddon 😎
were in depression with inflation. LOLs. Plus covid.
Thx you
Would be interesting to see if we have 4 or 5 negative quarters…. seems as though even if we have a recession, they'll predict only 2 negative quarters. The situation in Ukraine is not going to be over in 6 months. Contagion from Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Turkey can spread as well. China can go into further protracted lockdowns.
But this administration only cares about Jan 6
Big ole daddy caulk
Employment participation rate is purposely overlooked.
Keep up the great job. Thanks.
Now Tom. You know that Uncle Sam would NEVER lie to us.
Job market is still hot. Economical pain coming
Usually employers will freeze hiring, then reduce overtime, reduce investment spending on new tools/innovation, then the layoffs begin.
Mi Ruso mas favorito. Thanks for keeping us informed papa.
The administration of denial. Deny until you die
Mainstream media seems to not even be covering this. They are more focused on POTUS.
Don't forget that everything is not a scam, the government has no plus value making assumptions that will scare the population while they are working on lagging issues… relax @Tom Nash, they have to calm people into a landing…
THANKS4GIVING
So, will the stock market lead or lag the actual recession?
We have 5% growth, this is your imagination. Didn’t you remember living in a communist country is like?