Hey everyone kevin here: the stock market is bleeding and we need to talk about the fud. That's keeping the market pained right now. A lot of folks are wondering. Ah omicron, it's a nothing burger.

Why are markets upset well in this video you're, going to learn why markets are upset about this quote: unquote, nothing burger and i'm going to show you where the uncertainty is, and why is this so important, it's so important. So that way, when you track exactly the inflection point that i'm talking about in terms of this new set of data you'll be able to know okay, is this potentially the sign that the market's going to get ready to turn around? That's the time to know you're at bottom and go shopping right. This makes sense. It also gives us comfort for the investments that we've already made in knowing that okay is there an end point of the pain? Now this doesn't mean that more bad pain can't come, but this is definitely a big negative catalyst.

So, let's talk about this, we'll talk more about this, of course, in the course member live streams which, if you're not a course member, yet check out the programs down below use that christmas coupon code before the end of christmas day. Okay, let's talk about this fud. That's keeping the market pained right now. First, we know we know.

We know. We know that in south africa cases of omicron are dropping and deaths are flat and low. At this point, honestly, this is the most generic response. Any loser's gon na give on twitter and it's really quite exhausting because it's basic, it's literally like people looking at a charcoal, oh look: okay covet case is going down in south africa.

Debts are flat omicron's. Nothing burger, not sure why the market's falling off a cliff. Oh well, fine, if you want that kind of like generic thought process, then fine look at one chart, retweet, somebody's dumb message and move on, but there's so much more underneath this and it takes hours and hours days of research to understand. There's a lot.

We don't know - and this is where some of the uncertainty comes from - i don't profess to know everything, but i do profess to research this stuff all day in and out, and that's why i think you watch these videos, so there are three things that this chart Does not tell us - and these three things are all very important when it comes to understanding what the heck is happening with omicron in south africa number one localization. We are not out of the woods yet. Let's understand this in gothic the largest province in south africa of uh, i believe we've got over 12.27 million folks in this particular province. We are seeing cases decline, hospitalizations start inflecting down.

We have researchers from gotten saying quote: for the first time there are more non-severe than severe patients in the hospital great. This is excellent news, so why are markets still freaking out? Well, just because things are going great in the largest providence does not mean things are going great everywhere in kwazulu-natal, hospitalizations are actually rising and we have substantially fewer vaccinations in this particular providence than in gotting. This is a problem, and this is also being con or is being well what's contributing to the issue over here is the fact that, according to doctors in this particular providence, most of the patients who are coming to the hospital are unvaccinated. We've got hospitalizations climbing to 971 on december 15th up from 79 on december.

1St 22 of those are in the icu, and over 80 percent of them are actually coming to the hospital because of coven, not because of other reasons, and that's really important as well. It's easy to throw around. Ah it's mostly other reasons or they're catching it in the hospital. That's fine! But when you start zooming in to the individual providences wait a minute.

We've got different stories happening in different places, and this means we have to pay attention a little bit more closely to the individual areas, because that's going to help us understand, what's potentially to come to the united states and how long we might be dealing with this Drama so that way, you're properly prepared in case you're, sitting on short-term options. You're aware that oh, we need to be looking for particular inflection points. Now of those who are in the icu in this particular province of 41 need ventilation, which is a little bit higher than the average overseeing. Most patients who were being admitted to the hospital with omicron are, are not in need of ventilation or certainly intensive care, but those who are in intensive care we're seeing over 80 percent of them are unvaccinated individuals.

Now this is very important that we're seeing these different local spreads in south africa. We want to really keep an eye on these different providences, not just the biggest one to understand south africa. When you pull up the overall chart, it doesn't. Do you much good unless you actually have a breakdown of what's happening at the individual areas and there's another reason for this we're going to talk about this? Okay, here's the thing! First of all, we don't have great statistics on what i'm about to say in the united states, but this is pretty critical of the individuals in south africa who are getting coveted.

The vast majority of them either have been vaccinated, which is a very low percentage. Less than 30 percent are vaccinated or they have had a prior exposure to covet. This could actually be leading to a rise of less severe cases in south africa than we might expect to see in other countries. Specifically, the united states see research indicates that in south africa we have the majority of folks quote the majority of folks.

According to the new york times from two days ago, the majority of residents have already been affected with covid. Only one-fourth of them are fully vaccinated. We generally get under 30 percent or between one-fourth and 30 percent, and that the vast majority of individuals in south africa have had quote some level of protection in south africa and that there is much more hurt. Immunity in south africa, and, in fact, statistically it looks like 70 percent of the population has had antibodies before we even count the vaccinated individuals.

That means, once you factor in vaccinated individuals, plus people who have had coveted before almost your entire population has some form of protection to covet a lot of herd immunity here, this could potentially be making covets, seem less harmful in south african statistics. That's because, if you've had prior exposure to covin, you might still get covet again. In fact, right now we know that your odds of getting covered uh again or your protection against getting omicron is only about 19 if you've had a prior infection a prior illness. So, in other words, prior illness only protects you about 19, which is pretty bad.

That's less protection than with a two dose vaccine, obviously substantially less than if you had a recent booster recent boosters, like what we saw this morning with the moderna news. Recent boosters are really helping pump up your antibodies, but again even the moderna news only told us that antibodies are really strong and powerful for the first 29 days. They haven't yet done research on great. How long is that immunity going to last three months isn't going to carry us through this winter season? Who knows, maybe not, and so that's another problem that we have with moderna, even though moderna was doing well in the stock market today, the rest of the stock market was not doing well so anyway.

So you've got the substantial level of herd immunity in south africa, which is really interesting, and it's important to consider, because something that prevents severe disease is some form of an immunity, whether it's prior illness or vaccine. That's because your t cells, even though the antibodies aren't doing so well t cells, are working very, very well against omicron and t cells are one of the ways that we can help prevent severe disease. Now, in addition to that, we've got me as your stock doc. Of course, in addition to that - and this is the third big issue that we've got to look at okay, so number one is localization in south africa number two folks number two is the issue that we have of herd immunity in south africa.

Many more people have some form of t-cell protection in south africa than we do in other places. The third third big issue that we have in south africa is the fact that in south africa the population is actually substantially younger than the population in the united states. The median age in south africa median age is 27.6 years old. The median age in the united states is 38.1 years old.

This means our bell curve is substantially older in the united states compared to south africa, especially since we're talking median here, not average. Now it's too early to know with certainty, but so far we know omicron has been relatively mild. We know there is a lot of fear, uncertainty and doubt we know that it's too early to determine. Are we going to see hospitalizations rise and are we going to see deaths rise in the united states? We do expect to see hospitalizations and deaths rise from delta, but that could coincide at the same time as we see omicron infections rise.

But when we blend these three issues together, what is the stock market left with and what is the stock market hate again me? Is your stock doc? You should know by now. What does the stock market hate? You should already be saying it unfreaking certainty. So when people leave comments or tweets all the time, oh, this is all just fun. It's just fud bingo.

It is fud because it's fear and uncertainty and there's a doubt. We don't have the answer of how omicron is going to play out in the united states, and this is why comparing to south africa is overly simplistic. We have to look at localization data in south africa. We have to consider the substantial amount of actual herd immunity, mostly from prior infection or exposure.

You have meaning most of the infections that we're seeing in south africa are secondary infections, they're, not primary infections, big big, big difference compared to the united states and number three you've got a much younger population in south africa and folks. This is really critical to understand. As well, over 62 percent of americans have a full dose of the vaccine in america, meaning they should have that t cell response, that's over about 210 million americans, but unfortunately that still leaves somewhere around 130 million americans who do not have the vaccine. Well, let's say you take that 125 million americans and assume that only people who never got the vaccine have gotten coveted, which is not going to be true, but this is to be conservative.

That means we take 125 million americans who have not had the vaccine subtract. 50 million cases that we've had in america, that means 75 million americans could potentially be without a vaccine-induced t cell t, helper cell response or prior illness t helper cell response. That's 75 million americans matches what npr believes would be 66 to 70 million americans that potentially have no protection against coven that compares to almost an entire south african population with some form of protection against covet. So wait a minute.

Oh my gosh! When you look at it that way, 66 divided by 340, that means 20 percent of americans. One in five americans could have no protection against covet, whereas in south africa, maybe one out of twenty did not have some form of protection against coving. So when we look at those south african statistics, you got ta, take them with a grain of salt. So why is the market freaking out? Why is the market uncertain? Because we've got two totally different data sets here, and it is way too simplistic to just go.

Well, things are fine in south africa, so they'll be fine here as well. I'm not trying to play fud, i'm just simply trying to say, as your stock market doctor in case you're wondering why the market's selling off, where that leftover uncertainty is for something that's deemed to be a nothing burger which, in fairness, i have called it myself, because I think the illness is relatively mild, i'm simply providing a reason why the market is continuing to hold on to some fear. I don't agree with it. Look i'm investing i'm buying, don't get me wrong, like i'm, investing i'm not shorting the market anymore either.

I'm investing in this market, so i think these are bargains, but let's be real. The market does not always align with exactly what we believe. Sometimes the market stays fearful a lot longer anyway, if you found this helpful, consider checking out the programs on building your wealth down below. Thank you so much for watching and folks, we'll see you next one thanks.

So much goodbye.