So let's talk about the CPI Data report. What's going on? Team: It's Ricky with Techbook Solutions and I just announced one of my Sqq trades as the market has reversed I'm not up very much pretty much a one thousand dollar day so far, but the day is Young So what exactly is going on? Why is the market selling off? First off, let's talk about this actual report CPI Data Report again. My goal here is for you to be able to do this all on your own. This actual site is called Bls.gov Forward slash CPI to the actual official website on where the actual CPI report is released and reported every single month.

So if you are actually someone that's invested in the stock market, this is going to be a website that you actually want to save. Now one of the breakdowns here on this chart is. one of the big things that you see is that energy is the biggest contributor on why we saw overall inflation go down for the month of March. Now let's go into the breakdown: I'm going to break this all down for you so you guys have a better understanding.

I Did this for my Learn Plan Profit Group Live this morning. so they all understood exactly why we're seeing such a big drop at the rate of inflation. So the first thing is, what is the current inflation rate that was reported today? Five percent is for overall inflation. We went from six percent all the way down to five percent.

Very easy to understand What was the Market's expectation? 5.2 percent Well Ricky Why is the market selling off right? So why is the market selling off If we came in lower than expected, Is it lower inflation good? Two reasons. First off, Core CPI came in higher than the previous month. It came in as expected, but it did go up and we'll talk about that in just a little bit. The second reason is now the concern isn't so much info inflation as inflation is going down.

But now the big concern is a recession because the economy is slowing down so much so quickly. Now, did we do too much too quickly? That's the concern that a lot of people are bringing to people's attention. And now the main concern is are we going into a potential recession with the economic slowdown and the job labor market slowdown? But let's go ahead and break this down. What is Core CPI Core CPI Came in at 5.6 percent.

As you can see, right on over here for the past 12 months and again, Core CPI is everything excluding food and energy. Now, this is the thing that a lot of people don't understand. It's how this thing has actually calculated. They don't understand how we went from six percent all the way down to five percent, but you will right after this.

It's very simple. CPI is calculated for the past 12 months right and we can see this. We added the new month of March and in the formula, we removed the old month of March. But you can see this right.

The example and the analogy that I gave to my Learn Plan Profit team. it's like we're cutting off the fat of when inflation was going and ramping up right. Do you guys remember last year when inflation hit a 40-year high? Scratching your head. Do you remember when we were at that 40-year high that was in the month of June when inflation gapped up 1.2 percent in just one month? This is during the ramp up of What? When month after month after month, we were seeing inflation go up from seven to eight to the nine and then 9.1 percent, right? That is when the fat was being added to our inflation rate.

But because inflation is only calculated for the past 12 months, we're chipping away for the next three months, Right? Because this month was March. Which means that in this calculation, we removed the old March And that means that we only have three more months of this fatty inflation, right? That's the best analogy that I can give you, Because after we remove these three months, and if you do the math 0.4 0.9 and then 1.2 that's equivalent to about 2.5 percent. we currently sit at five percent, so that means that once we remove this, if we have anything close to what we've experienced, meaning that if our inflation continues to stay around 0.1 to 0.4 percent of an increase, month over month, we'll be very close to that 2.5 to 3 percent month. um, or 2.5 to 3 percent inflation after seasonal adjustment.

And that's the beautiful thing about how this CPI data report is calculated is by removing the old months as we get in deeper into 2023, we really begin to Chip Away add our inflation rate because of how CPI is calculated and I Just wanted you guys to understand that if you want to look at the exact formula that they use to calculate the CPI, then again, you can look a little bit more into it in this right, so not seasonal adjusted CPI measures and again, it actually has the full breakdown for you right on over here. But I Want to show you what was the biggest contributor to our inflation going down in the month of March. Let's zoom in very quickly. For all of our iPhone users, it's very easy to read this.

Don't over complicate it. these are just the previous months. This is the month that we're paying attention to and it's this line item, right? So all food items so food and energy goes up to here. So this is including um overall CPI And we can see that it's up to here and then for these items.

Do you see how it's you know it has this uh Gap and then it goes into these items that is core CPI So core CPI is everything excluding food and energy. So all of this is overall CPI Just this area is Core CPI So why is it that Core CPI went up from 5.5 to 5.6 percent? But overall CPI if it's more that's being calculated actually went down, it's because Energy. Look at this: 4.6 drop Negative 4.6 Drop Negative Four percent drop Negative 2.3 percent drop Negative Point: Seven percent drop Negative 7.1 percent drop. This is all in the energy sector.

This is why I said that energy was the biggest contributor on why inflation went down in the month of March right? And it's because it's included that just like it sucked last year, right? Because energy was the one that was contributing most to the inflation rate, right? That's when energy was really ramping up and when we were seeing Uh Energy prices go up and up and up. That really hurt our inflation rate last year being having that be calculated and overall inflation. But now that it's going down, it helps the inflation rate go down right quicker. But that's why Core CPI didn't go down.

Because Core CPI does not include energy and food items. It just includes overall items right, such as oh, not overall items. It just includes these line items that you see here where it's new vehicles. Commodities Apparel Medical Care Commodities Shelter, transportation services, and medical care services.

So again, a much smaller group for a Core CPI A much larger area for overall CPI But that is the important part to know about how the CPI report is being calculated. Now again, going back to the idea of Core CPI right? So I wanted to bring this up for you guys. We went from 5.5 to 5.6 percent. The expectation was 5.6 percent, but I can already imagine the headlines.

The headlines are going to be what they've always been. and it's can the Federal Reserve gain control of Core CPI right? Because that and if you understand the Federal Reserve they can't affect the prices of food and energy right? But they can affect the prices of other items by raising interest rates, right? That's how how it is that it's worked in the past before. So it's going to really question the certainty of the Federal Reserve and what they're going to continue to choose to do right Because if core inflation is actually going up and core inflation is considered to be the only area where the Federal Reserve has influence, and if that's going up and everything else is going down, that might justify the Federal Reserve needing to create another rate hike because core inflation is actually going up and not actually going down. So when asking the question, why is the market selling off very simple, it's because of the uncertainty that with how the Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates, Core CPI doesn't look like it's going down month over month.

Overall, CPI is but one thing that I want to remind you is although energy is going down right now for the month of March if you guys listened last month, OPEC which is one of the world's largest oil producers, right announce a production cut meaning that if they cut production and demand stays the same. But really, we're entering summer months right and those are busier, More consumption, more demand during that time. What do you think is going to happen in prices, right? Very easy to understand that in the next couple of months, Energy prices should begin to go up and unfortunately then that will again begin to contribute to the effects of our overall inflation rate. and we will see it with the CPI data reports.

but again one of you guys to have a full understanding of what was reported today I Wanted you to have an understanding of the concern of this of the CPI report and it's not Overall CPI but it's Core: CPI Can the Federal Reserve gain control of our core inflation rate? That is the question everyone is asking. If you have any other questions that you would like me to answer for you, especially if you're an absolute beginner. I Welcome it all right! You can direct message me in two different ways: direct message me via Discord or that's the first link in the description down below or direct message me via Instagram I am verified on Instagram and it's the third link in the description down below. I Have no other Instagram account.

There's a bunch of fake accounts out there. Please just report them and please know that my only Instagram account is the third link in the description down below. but I Just wanted to share this with you guys I Hope that you guys enjoyed this little session. I Know that I did and check this out again.

We are up 3K on the day testing our resistance at 31.19 it is a beautiful day to be a bear, but have no fear when in doubt we pull out and today is not a day you want to mess around with. Today is a very volatile all day and today you want to lock in profits and regardless if you're you know just like Bulls were in the green this morning. What did we say during our CPI live stream? I Was surprised that the CPI data report wasn't you know overreacting at its peak it was only up three percent on Tkq or one percent on QQQ. That's nothing that is nothing for a CPI data report and that is why I was like at this point if it doesn't actually continue to make higher highs.

I Wouldn't be surprised if we actually began to sell off and give it all back I Encouraged our beginner traders to have an Exit Plan have a stop loss at either a break of pattern or their price Target Whatever the case might be, Remember, your job is not to be perfect. Your job is to Simply have a plan and to manage your risk. As boring as that sounds, Guess what? Being boring and being green is better than being exciting and being red right? Very easy way to live. Do not over complicate your trading So again.

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Take it easy team.