Hey everyone me kevin here: we've got to discuss the leftover 12.9 tesla stock rumors that there's going to be a tesla stock split on 12 9, which is tomorrow and we've got to address the elephant in the room and talk about strategies for what to do with Tesla stock around this potential event, first and foremost, we already know that elon musk in a wall street journal conference has answered that nothing happens on 12 9. As far as he is aware, however, elon musk has also tweeted that nothing matters which is originally something that was believed to be a reference to whether or not a zero should be included in a calculation or not. And when you include that zero in that calculation, all of a sudden, you get the result of twelve nine there's so many speculative internet rumors about this i've gone through all of them in a video before and i will link to that down below. So you can watch that if you want to see the refresher on why there's so much drama around 12 9.

But right now, there's no indication that a stock split will happen on 12 9. But there's a lot of enthusiasm for a stock split to happen for tesla elon musk did mention that around the 850 level that the tesla was not yet at a high enough level to justify a stock split and the last time tesla stock split, tesla stock price Was in the 1370 range right now, tesla is trading for 1068 dollars, it's down about 13 from its all-time highs of about hundred or twenty nine dollars, so we've still got a bit to go to to be at similar levels. From the last time we did a five one stock split, but when we did have a five one stock split and there were a lot of little hints that were laid leading up to that stockplate and then that's what's leading to essentially similar rumors being formed. Now, around 12 9.

elon musk, however, coming out in response to 12 9 and saying that, as far as i'm aware, nothing happens, kind of makes it clear that elon is either lying now or nothing happens, because when he says, as far as i know, nothing happens, Then, if tesla announces something, then that's obviously something happening, and we would imagine that elon musk would know about that. I suppose there's a small edge case scenario where he wouldn't know about a tesla announcement, but that would be weird because he's playing into these hints pretty hard if uh, you know, he does mention that this is just one of those memes that came out of nowhere, Who knows, maybe he's just playing into the whole 12 9 thing because he likes having fun with people and speculation online kind of like when he played with uh with dogecoin on snl and even before that, right now there has been some speculation. That, maybe nothing happens is a reference to well elon's automatic stock selling via his 10b51 plan, ceases on 12 9.. This makes some sense because that would imply that on 12 9, nothing happens instead.

Something stopped happening right. His automatic selling stopped selling it happening because for the last few weeks last four sales he's done he's only been selling plans through his automated 10b51 plan. Now, if we hop on over to gary black's twitter, whom i absolutely encourage, you follow, if you love tesla news on twitter, take a look at the spreadsheet he puts together. He gives us sort of this outline that elon musk has already sold 59.2 percent of his promised.

17 million shares. Approximately 17 million shares. That's what elon musk promised to sell and elon musk only sold about 10 million of those shares now elon musk has stopped manually selling shares you'll notice instead, he's been selling 934.91 shares via his 10b51 plan, which is an automated selling plan. Now there is no particular pattern in terms of when these are sold other than one particular thing here.

Take a look at this monday, 11 uh eight and that's monday. One week later, on 11 5, you get another 10b51 execution. Then one day later you get another one, then another week after that you get another sale on 11, 23 and then a week and two days after that, you get another 10b51 sale. So no clear pattern.

It's not like every seven days. The 10b51 plan triggers instead take a look at the bottom when elon exercises his options, which he did on the 8th, 15th, 16th, 23rd and 2nd, which is the same as when the 10b51 plan automatically sells shares on the 8th, 15th, 16th, 23rd and 2nd. That's when elon's 10b51 plan triggers so when elon sells uh his options or or rather not sells his options when he exercises his options when he takes those shares. His 10b51 plan automatically triggers the sale of almost a million shares, so this is now leading to speculation that maybe elon's going to somehow automatically exercise uh the rest of his his options and then automatically have a bunch of 10b51 sales triggered at the same time as He exercises these options and maybe he's going to be done.

Selling tesla shares tomorrow, but if he's done, selling tesla shares tomorrow, that means he's going to dump 40 percent of his additional promise, which would be somewhere around seven million shares that that has a very good chance of tanking the stock price and just being horrible. Who knows, maybe it's all going to go over and go through a block sale where all of a sudden elon musk block sales, his uh, you know shares and - and he gets rid of all of them and he's done and he can put a little statement up From morgan stanley or some uh market maker and say hey, you know what we're done. I'm done, selling my shares we're onwards and upwards. Maybe that's it and it's like hey.

Nothing happened because we're finished. Who knows, and maybe that's disclosed from a day earlier that today they made the agreement and that's it elon musk is done, it's all speculation, but right now, when elon musk says nothing happens, the odds of a stock split, i would say, under five percent, the odds Of some sort of company announcement or cyber truck event, or something crazy, probably relatively low, because again elon says nothing happens. So but again he does say that nothing, matters and nothing uh does matter in terms of certain calculations and does matter in terms of things ending. So maybe some things end it'd be nice if elon would stop selling his shares because we're in sort of a downward trajectory with the share price right now - and this is where it's worth doing, just a little minor ta here look this is i mean this is Amateur here, but look at this folks uh we are experiencing lower highs.

You can see the trend line here, lower highs and lower lows right. We extend to the the tippies here in the tippies. We get the lower highs and lower lows and we're in this channel of really pain for tesla, we're down 13 again off all-time highs, we're in between the channel here. But what we're really looking for is a breakout and i don't think that we're going to see a breakout on tesla, certainly not until elon musk, is done.

Selling his shares and he's got a lot of work to do because it's going to hold institutions back from wanting to invest in this, because they would expect continued pressure to the downside. And if you simply look at the chart, this is not exactly reminiscent of something that seems like at any point soon or until elon musk is done, selling his shares. This is actually going to be rotating up again, especially since 11 8 is right here and it's the first uh hikashi red candle, and it's also the first day he started selling shares. So it kind of created this channel here, right, okay, cool, so my strategy and a bottom line on all of this.

Well number: one look! If there are some nice dips that meet that trend line at the bottom, where we followed like under a thousand again i'm down to buy the dip again, i did trim a little bit of my tesla position in the mid 1100s and upper 1000s. But that's because i had a commitment coming up uh and that commitment is now no longer an issue i'll make a video about that one of these days and uh, and so now i'm kind of rebuying it and buying the dip. I've got about 18 cash. Otherwise, i'm fully invested.

My goal is to get all that invested into the market uh by the end of the year. Maybe we'll take advantage of the cpi uh, you know catalyst or the fomc fear that could be coming. But beyond that, i'm interested in getting invested. Uh, if we do get uh any kind of stock split, obviously we expect the stock to to probably skyrocket in anticipation of a split.

If there was a split announced, i would probably instantaneously buy a lot of shares because i would expect the market i mean. This is going to be worldwide news. I mean everybody's going to go nuts over this and people are going to be buying a stock like crazy, no guarantees. Of course, if there's no split expected, though uh, which i kind of expect or if no there's no split announced, which i expect then tomorrow might be a little bit of a depressing day, we could actually be seeing some traders who are getting into tesla for temporary Momentum take losses, maybe tiny gains and escape tesla and just sell, and so we could see some additional selling pressure combine traders leaving tesla with institutional traders waiting to buy more tesla unless there are dips and waiting for elon musk to sell.

We have more reasons to expect that this downward channel is probably and trend channel is going to continue for at least the next few weeks until elon musk has completely finished uh his his sales and uh, and then, of course, these rumors will be gone so uh, Who knows, maybe there'll be a better opportunity buying on tesla, i'm of course still very long and very bullish on tesla, and it's still the largest position that i own and i'm so so very excited about tesla, but uh yeah, not too overly enthusiastic about tomorrow. But i will be prepared to pull the trigger, no matter what happens. So. Thank you very much for watching this video and folks we'll see in the next one thanks bye,.