Hey everyone welcome back to another market, closing live stream. We are on one heck of a roller coaster who saw those chinese treasury yields that was insane today, i'm just like watching just laughing. It's like tears of of ridiculousness uh i'll. Also i'll show you.

If you haven't seen yet, but it was absolutely ridiculous, so uh, let's go to the five day here and uh yeah, look at this folks uh. So this this is the the 10-year treasury. Here we went down to about 169 hung out there for a second 175 gapped up gapped up to 185 earlier gapped up to almost uh 1.9 1.877 rotated down had these little peaks. Here we actually rotated down a lot today, specifically intraday over here.

The very beginning, part of the day we we gapped up as high as 1.9 very very brief moment, it's hard to see in the chart here, uh and now we're sitting at 1.83. So so this really big like a set of volatility, i mean if we could just measure the volatility of these bonds, probably be just relatively ridiculous right now, uh. At the same time, we've got the indices which have uh again turned red. They turned.

They were red in futures, then they turned green. Then they turned red. Then they turned green. Then they turned red again.

It was totally not just futures, but then the indices uh totally disastrous. Here the vix is only a 23 still, though in theory we could potentially be running back to another insane uh volatility spike. The last time we had this crazy volatility strike. First of all, i hope you had your prescription for stocks, but the last time we had this insane volatility spike was actually while i was in cabo, which was uh december 6th and uh volatility spike to over 30 percent uh, which or just a numerical read of 30.

uh, sometimes we look at it. We say percent, but it's really just a numeric. But anyway, look at this. You go to three month here, look how high we went there for a moment uh and not the good kind of high either i mean like.

Oh my gosh hi uh. We went to just over 31 there for a moment if we zoom out to about the one year. You could see that serious set of pain right here and it appears that level of pain is coming back because right now we are forming another peak right here of of pain. If we look at the past year, we've had this sort of pain uh during the gme crisis, and this this was a initially positive pain but then turned into a rampant amount of bad pain.

For let's say robin hood uh or for gme rather well. Also, lingering effects for robinhood, of course, then you have here the 28 to 27 spike. Here. You've got a spike here to about 27 as well spike here to about 24, which is approximately where we are now so volatility wise vol's been trending up the last few days.

The fact that it fell as much as it did at the turn of the year was wild. I think there was a lot of hope that the pain was over at the end of the year uh. You know i i said i'd go all in at the end of the year and and i did uh you know in hindsight. I wish i waited a couple more weeks, but that's okay.

You can still buy the dip now, just a lot less than it, because they get less dollars, which is also why a lot of people will especially hedge funds short the market right, because, if you think about it, you can't uh. You can't raise capital unless you're shorting, while the market's going down most people, aren't going to call up your hedge fund and say something like hey kevin. I want to invest in your hedge fund because the market's crashing - i want you buttoned it most. People don't do that right.

Uh most people are like. Oh, no, my parent fairly or please, sir, protect me - and this is this - is very normal. So it's very difficult to raise capital uh during a larger sell-off, but during larger sell-offs and when it's difficult to raise capital. That's usually when you can create the best returns.

And so that's frequently, when you see people sell out of condition or companies that they have less conviction in or companies that have actually not fallen as much and they concentrate into companies that have fallen more now. Unfortunately, sometimes that could lead to more pain because you buy the dip and the dip keeps going. Oh well, but if, at least in the meantime, you're shorting the market to some degree at least the more the market falls, the more money you're kind of raising for buying the dip. And then, when you finally cover on your shorts, you have that excess money available.

As well, the issue is, you generally have to establish your shorts early. So when i said i was shorting, the market meet kevin shorting on market, and we talked about this pretty consistently uh in the uh. In the course member live streams i may have when i talked about shorting the market, it was take a look at this. I just spent three and a half million dollars shorting this.

It was november 23rd that i was talking about shorting the market because i thought the the market was getting a little bit ridiculous, which, if you look back at let's, say qqq and you go back to november. What was it? What did i say? November 30th, it was like right here right there uh, that's not bad like. If let me go to google finance because i'll get a little bit of a better view, finance.google.com, uh, qqq and and i'm going to explain what the rationale of talking about this is just one second, so let's go to november 30th, 30 30 or what was it? The 27th or the 30th - it really doesn't matter so much uh here, 23., okay, so uh that would have been a 7.24 difference. Uh on the qqq to short against.

I wasn't shorting the qqq, though it was actually shorting arc and arc during that same time. November 30th was oh, why do they make it so complicated? Oh, come on. Google finance, you guys are so annoying there. We go all right six months and it had already fallen a bit 23..

There we go 28 freaking percent holy crap. Oh my gosh uh. So from the date i talked about shorting this uh. It actually didn't do that.

Well, the video 100 uh 16 000 views uh, but from this date it was 28 and uh kind of remarkable but anyway, so the point is you want to establish shorts like that when they're generally cheap to do uh? The reason for this is uh you it's! The protection is nominal to do uh so uh i mean that's, that's the time to establish right now, it's extremely difficult, uh to to set up shorts because everything's gotten so expensive, extremely expensive uh, which is a little bit of a bummer but uh. Let's see here. Okay, now we're kind of in this place, where shorts just aren't that juicy anymore and the reason they're not that juicy anymore, is because anything that you look at and - and you want to short, the premiums are insane right now, in fact, you're you're. Quite frankly, in many cases better off uh just being in cash, if you were really trying to uh short something.

Okay, let me get rid of you know. Weeble turned a little funny for me here. All my weeble got moved around and i'm having a. I think it's like the newer version or something like that, so i'm having issues actually getting the darn uh thing to uh to function here, but that's okay, we'll we'll figure this out.

We can do this. We got this just want to get to the options list. It can't be that hard, it can be the options whatever uh we don't have to talk about options. Then i'll figure that i'll clean this up later and we'll talk about the options.

Later i was going to go to the options and see what what what there is to go, go shopping for, but uh. The things that used to be over here are no longer here and now. The things that are options are no longer here. Wait.

Maybe i could just add it again here: uh yeah, it's gon na take too long for this okay, whatever so uh anyway. That's that's a little bit of news in terms of uh, shorting uh, usually folks, you want to short when, when nobody uh thinks that it's time to short uh, that's that's when the protection is the cheapest and uh. Usually uh people hate it when you short, in fact the uh just for giggles. It's worth looking at this uh one of the top comments, probably uh.

What's it what's it uh called um uh, one of the what you say: it's not the top comment, but one of the most upvoted comments. Uh is actually, let's squeeze kevin to get his attendees. It just goes to show you the the uh, the drama that comes with uh um with making plays in the stock market so uh. If, if at all you get uh you get sensitive to uh what other people think then uh, then you end up losing.

So you got ta, be careful with that uh all right so uh. What do we got here? Russell down, uh, one percent, nasdaq down point six s p down point five down down point: six! One! Let's go! Take a look at barons! I wanted to take a peek over here, so uh. What do we have here? Will the fed app for the up for the half point rate, so this is now something that's becoming uh much more talked about. One of the reasons it's becoming more talked about is is really because of bill.

Ackman uh bill ackman, suggested hey. The fed should go for this shock and awe strategy of uh, proving that that they will do whatever it takes to manage inflation. So far, inflation expectations have not been going up so at least not in the past about six weeks, uh they've. If anything, they've gone down over the past eight uh and have not gone up in the past six.

So if inflation expectations aren't really going up, i don't know that the federal reserve needs to take this even more hawkish approach of of going for a half rate, increase, half point rate increase, but it potentially sets up a catalyst for us. It potentially sets up a catalyst that says we should have some form of comfort that the federal reserve will or will not raise rates more than expected by the uh the end of the january meeting, so the january meeting is next week and on wednesday jerome powell At about 11 00 a.m, california time will release his uh his decision did they raise uh rates at all? Did they raise a quarter percent? Did they raise a half percent uh? We actually in january, do not expect a rate increase at all. We'll just know a little bit of a guide because they'll get asked uh are they expecting to have to raise rates? This is the question. I would probably ask if i were there, something like that.

Like do you at any point foresee a need to raise rates at an interval greater than 25 basis points, and i expect the answer is going to be. Probably, no, that is he'd, probably say something like jerome powell will probably say something like probably not, but that option will be in our tool belt if we saw a sudden worsening. So that would be an option, but we'd want to forecast in in 25 basis. Point increments, so that way the market has proper and clear expectations, uh and they don't feel like they're getting rug pulled right, which i think the market already feels like it's getting rough pulled.

I mean it's, it's so nasty and so bloody and it sucks. You know you don't really want to look at your portfolio, even because it's just like oh yeah, there's there's that red uh, but anyway uh. That is something to uh to keep an eye on, and so of course, we'll be covering that dramatically, uh or the drama. I should say i'll cover: it normally, not dramatically: uh wow russell 2000, nearly 16 percent from record hot record high s, p trading at lowest level since early december and nasdaq down over 10 wow uh anyway.

So a nice little correction, we're getting in the markets. I guess this is what it feels like. That's all right, we've been through these before so the federal reserve again on wednesday at 11 am will will tell us their summary of actions and then about 30 minutes later we'll uh be live for about an hour. Answering questions uh and so, of course, i'll cover both the announcement and the federal reserve q a.

I think this is going to probably be the most important catalyst looking forward to going uh going forward uh in addition to earnings, you're gon na have earnings that day. Uh jerome powell or i'm sorry, tesla reports, earnings next uh next wednesday. I don't actually think you have too many earnings this week. This week's a little bit slow.

It was mostly banks. Along with last week, you had banks, morgan stanley and bank of america. Did a little bit better than i expected, but all of them across the board sucked in terms of brokerage revenue, which is not not a phenomenal sign for a company like robinhood. So far, though, very very positive, i might release a video on them later.

Uh. Okay. Well, let's see here trying to find out what we've got in terms of earnings today, but apparently we are not connected to the internet. I'll deal with that later.

This stupid computer here two two two problems today, weeble and uh. The ipad doesn't seem to wan na cooperate. That's all right, let's get to the bottom of it. Ah, there we go wednesday, oh united airlines today, oh have fun.

Okay, i'll, be the first of our airlines. Okay! So and when do they report uh, okay, 1, 30.? So probably not gon na cover it it's a little bit later: okay, cool, so uh! All right. Let's see gold is screaming that the fed can't raise yeah, it's very common uh that we we're seeing as well with the bond market. I just learned that my school can give me access to the bloomberg terminal for business college students time to spend my life using it.

That's amazing, michael good, for you, that's really cool we're in the process of fake out induced wealth transfer, says somebody here: okay, uh mansion speaking in a half an hour, he's just gon na end up complaining about the filibuster like what else? What else are they gon na say ten dollar donation from mj? Thank you so much uh renegade middleton, oh yeah, dumb media. I've never never heard of that. Okay. So let's go uh.

Let's take a look at this, so will the federal reserve. So this is bloomberg's. Take okay; ah yes, either referring to bill ackman yeah with a shock and awe tactics, uh of sharp increased interest rate increases that were used to quell inflation in the 1980s and 90s, or will it continue the measured approach that it's used in recent weeks with inflation At a four decade, high talks of dramatic half point jumps in the federal reserve rates as soon as march have increased full force in bill. Ackman's tweet fed funds.

Future market has priced in a total of four quarter point rate hikes this year. The initial liftoff is expected at the march 15th to 16th meeting uh, with a second increase expected at the june 14th to 15th meeting and the odds of a third one in september and a fourth december uh, 13th and 14th. I would write this down folks now. This this is actually a good little thing to write down, and so i'm going to write that down myself here.

So i'm just going to put market we knew march was was the first one, but it's nice to see the the time frame for the rest. Here, broken down by barons, market rate expects, and so i'm just going to quickly write down because i know the dates uh. I will write down march june sept des sept des. I don't put a little note there that was barron's, okay good.

So i mean that seems reasonable. Okay, we talked about bill in the video yesterday. That would be keeping uh with the feds incremental okay. Half point increases took place in may 2000, just ahead of the bursting of the dot-com bubble.

Oh everybody loves a reference to the dot-com bubble. That's probably the the funnest thing uh that people talk about uh right now is is how that's it we're going back into another dot-com bubble. The end is near, sell everything fed raised rates uh sharply and quickly. In 94, including two half point increases and one three quarter point jump the moves, quelled, rising inflation fears, but also precipitated some memorable crack ups in the financial markets, treasury mortgage-backed markets were thrown into disarray by initial fed hikes, followed by the bankruptcy of orange county california, Which speculated in interest rate derivatives that blew up nice? Okay? Well, interesting, let's see if they have any bottom line here, inflation has likely yet to peak either by overall or core by mid-year year-over-year.

Consumer prices are expected to drop only to five point. Six percent from the seven percent posted in december: that's even though the relatively high inflation readings from the reopening of the economy last year will have dropped out of the 12-month measures by then uh. They write in one research. Note, ooh goldman okay, all right interesting as it stands.

The current fed policy is the easiest since the mid-1970s, which is fanning the current high inflation rights, one strategist, ah all right! So how are we doing into the close here? Well, we've got a peloton. That's up! 5.2 percent uh so far up. Fourteen percent lucids up two most of the other stocks are red. Uh i mean you.

These are. These are some substantial uh pain points here: uh x, spin motor, seven percent matterport ford, uh cardano is over here at eight percent as well wow d-wack. There goes the momentum just evaporated now down ten percent. Almost ten percent shift technology that is crazy.

Just how low this one goes, 5 there's really no floor. Lemonade. 4.75. The best floor is just not being in it.

That's just the best case scenario in this. This crazy market uh tesla, 3.39 yikes uh, polkadot, 3.3 nvidia also 3 down at 251. This is some relative lows: apple exp, hud, 8 uh. Let's see here, delta 1.8 arc 1.57 to the downside, lots of lots and lots of pain here, end phase where zen phase here 134 google is also down about a third of a percent not as bad a firm's actually flat cloudflare green by about 0.84 wow, and So far, really leading today, but then again leading on a strong catalyst.

Okay, so we have about two and a half minutes to go. Let's see what uh headliners, we have microsoft. Okay, we talked about this biden to host first 2022 news conference as agenda stalls. Oh morgan, stanley, profit rises.

Nine percent saw that this morning talked about the n95s talked about the cova test. If you haven't ordered your kova test, yet you could do that. Okay, let's try nyt and ft. Oh kidoki.

No surprisingly, on the financial times seems like there's more political news here than uh financial news in terms of the market falling, so maybe bloomberg's just going to be the best luck in coffee plots to re-list in two years. Oh wow, that's crazy! All right! Here we go nasdaq heads for correction: let's read a little bit of bloom work. U.S stocks fell towards lowe's of the days in choppy trading, as investors assessed outlooks for earnings growth amid the potential for monetary policy. Tightening i feel like this is literally the same headline that we get every single day.

It's pretty wild equity markets swung between gains and losses for much of the session wednesday, with the s p, 500 testing a key technical support level. The nasdaq composite extended loss is sliding 10 percent from november's highs. Treasuries fell across the curve, even as expectations grow that the 10-year will top two percent. The dollar gauge declined for the first time in four days: wow volatile start to the year.

You don't say: yeah look at all the blood. It's like dripping: blood, okay, morgan stanley, procter gamble oil reached a seven year high. Is that true? What's what's seven, let's see what brent is really quick and then we got the bell to hit. Let's see here.

Oh all, the indices are down nice, 88 and 86 on wti 86.5 on wti. Look at that. Almost all of them are gon na be down one percent. Can we get a full one percent across the board? Let's see if we can get it, let's see if we can get the dow to be a full one percent, so by the way, everything's down at least one percent all right here we go that explains the nasdaq down 1.2 and we are just spilling here into The close small caps down 1.6 - this comes on top of the big declines that we saw yesterday.

Interest rates, the 10-year yield hasn't really done much today, a little bit lower. The 10-year boom deal, though in germany, went positive for the first time since 2019. As the talking okay actually recovered a little bit into the clothes look at that dow at 0.96, 0.97 on the s, p, 500, nasdaq down 1.15 and the russell down 1.6, the pain. The pain is here, uh, taking a look at uh at how things left off.

Uh digital d-wack down 10.2 percent uh. Look at this folks matt reports at 12. This is where it was in its low in may. Let me see here where, where was its melo? Let's see, maybe may here we go.

Ah, okay, there we go. Matterport went down to 10.45 cents in may i mean that's, that's incredible uh! If i thought it was 11.. No, it went down to 10 45 in may uh. That's incredible so, but i do remember that substantial dip over here uh then you've got uh plug power down plug power at twenty dollars.

Oh my goodness, some bargains, uh wow yeah riot blockchain 17 nicholas back to eight dollars and sixty cents. Oh my gosh, even proterra's. At nine dollars she whiz dutch bros 43 backed is at 4.98 shift dollars. Thirty cents uh wow wayfair 156.

On wayfarer. This thing used to yo-yo up to 300.. That yo-yo is long over. That's insane robin hood 1389.

I mean that's just it's just new low. After new low tesla, 995 finally broke a thousand, so for all those folks looking for that tip to get under a thousand again, it has been discovered this year. Uh, let's see what biden says, i doubt he's gon na say anything other than talk about the voting rights act and the filibuster which i don't know if really gon, na care that much from two million people being vaccinated at the moment. I was sworn in to 210 million americans being fully vaccinated.

Today we created six million new jobs, more jobs in one year than any time before unemployment dropped, the unemployment rate dropped to 3.9 percent. Child poverty dropped by nearly 40 percent, the biggest drop ever in american history. New business applications grew by 30, the biggest increase ever and for the first time in a long time, this country's working people actually got a raise, actually got a raise people before the bottom, 40 percent saw their income go up the most of all the categories we Cut health insurance premiums for millions of american families, and we just made surprise medical bills illegal in this country. You know those bills, you get that you don't expect that you're two to five thousand dollars from the hospital beyond what you thought you were gon na have to owe, because the consultation you weren't told was gon na cost that much no more they're now illegal.

Thanks to the american rescue plan and other actions, we've taken, we've seen record job creation record economic growth in the past year. Now, thanks to the bipartisan infrastructure bill, we're about to make a record investment in rebuilding america to take us to be the number one best infrastructure in the world. Well, now we're way below that we'll be creating better jobs for millions of people modernizing our roads, our bridges, our highways, our ports, our airports, everything from making clean water led removing lead pipes that every american turnout, every american can turn on a faucet and drink clean Water, urban and rural and suburban communities, it's going to make affordable, high-speed internet available to every american in urban, rural and suburban areas. We've never done that before now.

We are we're in the process of getting that done still for all this progress. I know there's a lot of frustration and fatigue in this country, and we know why proven 19 omicron has has now been challenging us in a way that uh it's the new enemy, but while it's caused for concern, it's not cause for panic. We've been doing everything we can learning and adapting as fast as we can and preparing for a future beyond the pandemic. All i know that after almost two years of physical, emotional and psychological weight of this pandemic and has the impact it's had on everyone for many of us, it's been too much to bear we're in a very different place.

Now, though, we have the tools, vaccines, boosters, mass tests, pills to save lives and keep businesses and schools. Open 75 of adults are fully vaccinated. We've gone from 90 million adults with no shots in arms last summer and down to 35 million with no shots. As of today and we're adding about 9 million more vaccinations each week, we're going to stick with our vaccination efforts because vaccinations work so get vaccinated.

Please and get your booster look we're also increasing testing. Should we have done more testing earlier? Yes, but we're doing more. Now, we've gone from zero at home test a year ago to 375 million tests on the market in just this month. If you buy a test of the store, your insurance will reimburse you, on top of that we're making one billion one billion at home tests available for you to order and be delivered to your home for free, just visit covettest.gov to know how to get that free Test kit to your home.

In addition, there are 20 000 sites where you can get tested in person for free now, and now we have more treatments that people can, that for people who keep people out of the hospital than any other point in the pandemic, including life-saving antiviral pills, we purchased 20 million of these new pfizer pills more than any country in the world and the bottom line on cover 19 is that we're in a better place than we've been and have been thus far clearly better than a year ago. We're not going to back we're not going back to lockdowns we're not going back to closing schools. Schools should stay open because the american rescue plan we provided the states 130 billion dollars - 130 billion dollars to keep our students and educators safe and schools, open funding for ventilation systems in schools, social distancing, hygiene for classrooms and the school buses. In addition, we've added another 10 billion dollars for covet 19 tests to be able to be ministers administered at schools, and many states and school districts have spent this money very well.

Unfortunately, some haven't. I encourage the states and school districts that use the funding to protect our children and keep our schools open. Use it covet 19 is not going to give up and accept things uh. You know it's just it's not going to go away immediately, but i'm not going to give up and accept things as they are now.

Some people may call what's happening now, the new normal. I call it a job not yet finished. It will get better we're moving toward a time in covet 19 and won't disrupt our daily lives, but covet 19 won't be a crisis, but something to protect against and a threat. Look we're not there yet, but we will get there now.

The second challenge we're facing are prices covet 19 has created a lot of economic complications, including rapid price increases across the world economy. People see it at the gas pumps, the grocery stores and elsewhere. So here's what we're going to do a critical job in making sure that the elevated prices don't become entrenched, rests with the federal reserve, which has a dual mandate: full employment and stable prices. The federal reserve provided extraordinary support during the crisis for the previous year and a half given the strength of our economy and the pace of recent price increases.

It's appropriate. As the federal chairman chairman powell, the fed chairman powell has indicated to recalibrate the support that is now necessary. I respect the fred, the fed's independence and i've nominated five superb individuals to serve on the federal board of governors, men and women from a variety of ideological perspectives, they're eminently qualified, historically diverse and have heard bipartisan praise. I call the united states senate to confirm them without any further delay and here at the white house and for my friends in congress.

The best thing to tackle high prices is a more productive economy, with greater capacity to deliver goods and services to the american people and a growing economy where folks have more choices and more small businesses compete and where more goods can get to market faster and cheaper. I've laid out a three-part plan to do just that. First fix the supply chain. Covet 19 has had a global impact on the economy when a factory shuts down in one part of the world shipments to shops and homes and businesses all over the world are disrupted.

Covet 19 has compounded that many times over a couple of months ago, in this very room, we talked to, we heard dire warnings about how the supply chain problems could create a real crisis around the holidays. So we acted. We brought together business and labor and that much predicted crisis did not occur. 99 of the packages were delivered on time and shelves were stocked and, notwithstanding the recent storms that have impacted many parts of our country, the share of goods in stock at stores is 89.

Now, which is barely changed from the 91 before the pandemic, i often see empty shells being shown on television. 89 percent are full, which is only a few points below what it was before the pandemic, but our work's not done my infrastructure law will supercharge your effort. Upgrading everything from roads and bridges to ports and airports, railways and transit to make the economy move faster and reduce prices for families. Second thing: my build back better plan will address the biggest cost of working families face every day.

No other plan will do more to lower the cost for american families. It cuts the cost of for child care. Many families, including the people sitting in this room if they have children and they're working full time. Many families pay up to 14 000 a year for child care in big cities less than that and smaller ones.

My plan cuts that in half that will not only be a game changer for so many families budgets, but it will mean so much for nearly two million women who women who've left the workforce during the pandemic because of things like child care. My build back better plan cuts the price of prescription drugs, so insulin that today costs some people as much as a thousand dollars a month will cost no more than 35 a month. It cuts the cost of elder care, it lowers energy to cost, and it will do all this without raising a single penny in taxes on people making under 400 000 a year or raising the deficit. In fact, my plan cuts the deficit and it boosts the economy by getting more people into the workforce.

That's why 17 nobel prize winners for economics say will ease long-term inflationary pressure. The bottom line, if price increases, are what you're worried about the best answer? Is my build back better plan? Third thing: we're going to do promote competition. Look in too many industries, a handful of giant companies dominate the market in sectors like meat, processing, railroad, shipping and other areas. This isn't a new issue.

It's not been the reason. We've had high inflation today. It's not the only reason it's been happening for a decade, but over time it has reduced competition squeezed out small businesses and farmers ranchers and increase the price for consumers. We end up with an industry like the meat processing industry, where four big companies dominate the markets, pay ranchers less for their cattle.

They grow charge. Consumers more for beef hamburger meat, whatever they're buying prices are up. Look i'm a capitalist, but capitalism without competition is not capitalism, it's exploitation, so i signed an executive order to tackle unfair competition on our economy, we're going to continue to enforce it along with working with congress, where we can a close of this. We have faced some of the biggest challenges that we've ever faced in this country, these past few years, challenges to our public health challenges to our economy, but we're getting through it and not only are we getting through it, we're laying the foundation for future where america Wins the 21st century by creating jobs at a record pace.

Now we need to get inflation under control. We have developed an extraordinarily effective booster shots and anti-viral pills. Now i need to finish the job to get covert 19 under control. I've long said it's never been a good bet to bet against the american people or america.

I believe that more than ever today, we've seen the grit determination in american people this past year, but the best days of this country are still ahead of us, not behind us. I'm happy to take questions. Oh that's rare! Yes! Thank you, mr president. I know some of my colleagues will get into some specific issues, but i wanted to zoom out on your first year in office, inflation is up uh, your signature, domestic legislation is stalled in congress.

In a few hours from now, the senate uh an effort in the senate to deal with voting rights and voting voting reform legislation is going to fail. Kogan 19 is still taking the lives of 1500 americans every day and the nation's divisions are just as raw as they were a year ago. Did you over promise to the american public what you could achieve in your first year in office and how do you plan to course correct going forward? Why are you such an optimist? Look, i didn't over promise and but i have probably uh outperformed what anybody thought would happen. The fact of the matter is that we're in a situation where uh we have made enormous progress.

You mentioned the number of deaths from covet. Well, it was uh three times that not long ago it's coming down everything's changing it's getting better look um! I didn't over promise, but i think if you take a look at what we've been able to do, uh you'd have to acknowledge. We made enormous progress, but one of the things that i think is something that uh one thing i haven't been able to do so far is get my republican friends to get in the game of making things better in this country, for example, i was reading the Other day - and i had i wrote the quote down, so i don't misquote him a quote from senator sununu when he decided that he wasn't going. Excuse me, governor sununu, when he decided he wasn't going to run for the senate in new hampshire.

Here's what he said. They were all for the most quote: they were all for the most part content with the speed at which they weren't doing anything. It was very clear that we just had to hold the line for two years. Okay, so i'm just going to be a roadblock for the next two years.

That's not what i do sununu said yeah, i'm going to say it bothered me that they were okay with that. Then he goes on to say i said: okay, so we're not going to get stuff done if we win the white house back, if we win the white house back, why didn't we do anything in 2017 and 2018. and then he said how the republican sununu spoke To answer the challenge, he said: crickets yeah crickets, they had no answer. I did not anticipate that there would be such a stalwart effort to make sure that the most important thing was that president biden didn't get anything done.

Think about this. What are republicans for? What are they for? They mean one thing they're for, and so the problem here is that i think, what's happens, what i have to do in the in the change in tactic. If you will, i have to make clear to the american people what we are for. We passed a lot.

We passed a lot of things that people don't even understand. What's all that's in it understandably remember when we passed the affordable care act and everybody thought that you know it really was getting pummeled and beaten and it wasn't until after out of office and that next campaign, when uh, that off-year campaign uh, i went into a Whole, i wasn't in office and we were in a whole bunch of districts campaigning for democrats and republican districts, who said they wanted to do away with with uh health care with obamacare, and i started pointing out that if you did, that pre-existing conditions would no longer Be covered and they said huh we didn't know that we didn't know that and guess what we won over 38 seats, because we explained to the people exactly what in fact had passed now, one of the things that i remember saying and i'll end this. I remember saying to president obama when he passed the affordable care act. I said you ought to take a victory lap and he said there's so many things going on.

We don't have time to take a victory lap as a consequence. No one knew what the detail of the legislation was. They don't know a lot of the detail of what we passed. So the difference is i'm going to be out on the road a lot making the case around the country with my colleagues who, up for reelection and others, making the case of what we did do and what we want to do.

What we need to do - and so i don't think i've over promised at all and i'm gon na stay on this track. You know one of the things that uh i remember and i'll end this i was talking with uh. You know uh jim clyburn, who was a great help to me in the campaign in south carolina and jim said, and when he endorsed me, and there was a there - was a clip on television, the last couple days of jim, and it said that we want to Make things accessible and affordable for all americans? That's healthcare. That's education! That's prescription drugs.

That's making sure you have access access to all the things that everybody else has we can afford to do that we can. We can't afford not to do it. So i tell my republican friends here i come. This is going to be about what are you for? What are you for and lay out what we're for um uh mary bruce abc.

Thank you, mr president, you mentioned your republican colleagues, but right now, your top two legislative priorities, your social spending package and voting rights legislation, are stalled blocked by your own party. After months of negotiation, you are only guaranteed control of washington for one more year before the midterms. Do you need to be more realistic and scale down these priorities in order to get something passed? No, i don't think so when you say more realistic. I think it's extremely realistic to say to people, because let me back up, you all, really know the politics in this country and your networks and others.

You spend a lot of time, which i'm glad you do pulling this data, determining where they are, what the american people's attitudes are etcetera. American people overwhelmingly agree with me on prescription drugs. They overwhelmingly agree with me on the cost of education. They overwhelmingly agree with me on early education.

They overwhelm and go on the list on on child care, and so we just have to make the case what we're for and what the other team's not for look. We knew all along that. A lot of this was going to be an uphill fight, and one of the ways to do this is to make sure we make the contrast as clear as we can, and one of the things that i think is we're going to have to do is just Make the case i don't think, there's anything unrealistic about we're, asking i'm not trying to i'm not asking for castles in the sky. I'm asking for practical things.

The american people have been asking for for a long time a long time and i think we can get it done, you're not going to scale down any of these priorities, but so far that strategy isn't working. You haven't been able to get some of these big legislative follow-up ticket items, real big ones done bigger than any president has ever gotten in the first year, but currently, mr president, your spending package voting rights legislation - they're not going anywhere. So that's true. Is there anything that you are confident you can get signed into law before the midterm elections? Yes, i'm confident we can get uh pieces, big chunks of the buildback, better law signed in law, and i'm confident that we can take the case to the american people that the people they should be voting for who are going to oversee whether elections, in fact are Legit or not, should not be those who are being put up by the republicans to determine that they're going to be able to change the outcome of the election.

So whether or not we can actually get election and by the way i haven't given up. We haven't finished the vote yet on. What's going on on on the uh um on voting rights and the john lewis bill and others, but uh um, so look, this is i i've been engaged a long time in public policy and i don't know many things that have been done in one fell swoop: Um - and so i think the bet - the most important thing to do is try to inform, not educate, inform the public of what's at stake in stark terms and let them make judgments and let them know who's for them and who's to get them who's there and Who's not there and make that the case, and that's what i'm going to be spending my time doing in this off-year election. You mentioned republicans in reaching out to them some republicans who may be open to major changes on voting rights, for instance like mitt romney.

He says he never even received a phone call from this white house. Why not? I like look mitt romney is a straight guy, he's uh and uh one of the things that we're doing. I was trying to make sure we got everybody on the same page. In my party on this score - and i didn't call many republicans uh at all - the fact is that um i i do think that mitt is a serious guy.

I think we can get things done. I think i predict you to get something done on the electoral reform side of this, but um rather than judge, what's going to get done and not get done, all i can say is i'm going to continue to make the case why it's so important to not Turn the electoral process over to political persons who are set up deliberately to change the outcome of elections, allison harris, please thank you, mr president, speaking of voting rights legislation, if this isn't passed, do you still believe the upcoming election will be fairly conducted and its results? Will be legitimate? Well, it all depends on whether or not we're able to make the case to the american people that some of this is being set up to try to alter the outcome of the election, and it's one thing look. Maybe i'm just being uh too much of an optimist. Remember how we thought not that many people were going to show up to vote in the middle of a pandemic.

We had the highest voter turnout of the history of the united states of america. Well, um. I think if, in fact, no matter how hard they make it for minorities to vote, i think you're going to see them willing to stand in line and and defy the attempt to keep them from being able to vote. I think you're going to see the people would try to keep from being able to show up, showing up and making the sacrifice it needs to make in order to change the law back to what it should be, and but it's going to be difficult.

I i make no bones about that: it's going to be difficult, but we're not there. Yet we've not run out of options yet and we'll see how this moves and on omicron and education teachers are end result in some revolt. In so many places, parents are at odds over closing schools and remote learning. You say we're not going to go back to closing schools.

You said that just moments ago, yet they're closing in some areas. What do you say to those teachers and principals and parents about school closings, and what can your administration do to help make up for learning loss for students? First of all i put in perspective. The question you asked very few schools are closing over 95 are still open, so you all phrase the questions when people - i don't think it's deliberate on your part, but you phrase the question of anyone watching this on television, my god, there must be all those schools Must be closing, what are we going to do? 95 are still open. Number one number two: the idea that parents don't think it's important for their children to be in school and teachers know it as well.

That's why we made sure that we had the ability to provide the funding through the recovery act through the act that we, the the first act. We passed to be able to make sure schools were able to be safe, so we have new ventilation systems available for them. We have the way they handle, they scrub down the laboratories, and i mean the laboratories kids go to to go to the bathroom uh cafeterias, buses, etc, that all that money's there there's billions of dollars made available. It's there.

Not every school district has used it as well as it should be used, but it's there, and so in addition to that, there is now another 10 billion dollars for testing of students in the schools. So i i think, as time goes on, it's much more likely. You're going to see that number go back up from 95 back up to 98 99, but the the outfit the individuals of the district that says we're not going to be open is always going to get and i'm not being critical of any of you. It's always going to get front page.

It's always going to be the top of the news, but let's put it in perspective 95 as high as 98 of the schools in america are open, functioning and capable of doing the job um. How about uh uh jan epstein bloomberg, mr president, thank you um. Your top foreign policy advisors have warned that russia is now ready to attack ukraine, but there's still little unity among european allies about what a package of sanctions against moscow would look like if the us and nato aren't willing to put troops on the line to defend Ukraine, american allies can't agree on a sanctions package hasn't the u.s and the west lost nearly all of its leverage over vladimir putin and uh. Given how ineffective sanctions have been in deterring putin in the past, why should the threat of new sanctions give him pause? Well, because he's never seen, sanctions like the ones i promised will be imposed if he moves number one number two we're in a situation where uh vladimir putin is about to uh, we've had very frank discussions, uh vladimir putin and i and uh the idea that nato Is not going to be united, i don't buy i've spoken to every major nato leader.

We've had the nato russian summit, we've had other, the osce has met, etc, and so i think what you're going to see is that russia will be held accountable if it invades, and it depends on what it does. It's one thing: if it's a minor incursion and then we end up having to fight about what to do and not do etc, but if they actually do what they're capable of doing with the force amassed on the border, it is going to be a disaster for Russia, if they further grade you and invade ukraine, and that our allies and partners are ready to impose severe cost and significant harm on russia and the russian economy, and you know we're going to fortify our nato allies. I told him on the eastern flank if, in fact he does invade we're going to i've already shipped over 600 million dollars worth of sophisticated equipment, defensive equipment to the ukrainians, the cost of going into ukraine in terms of physical loss of life for the russians, they'll They'll be able to prevail over time, but it's going to be heavy. It's going to be real.

It's going to be consequential in addition to that putin has a you know, has a stark choice: he either de-escalation or diplomacy, a confrontation of the consequences. Look, i think, you're going to see. For example, everybody talks about how russia has control over the uh the energy supply uh that europe absorbs well guess what that that that money that they earn from, that makes about 45 of the economy. I don't see that as a one-way street, they go ahead and cut it off.

It's like my mother, used to say, you're biting your nose off. Despite your face, it's not like. They have all these wonderful choices out there i spoke with the prime minister of finland, and you know we're talking about uh uh concern on the part of finland and sweden about what russia is doing. The last thing that that russia needs is finland deciding to change its status.

They didn't say they're gon na, do that, but they're talking about what in fact is going on and how outrageous russia has been we're finding ourselves in a position where i believe you'll see that there'll be severe economic consequences, for example, anything that involves dollar denominations if They make a if they invade they're going to pay they're not going their banks will not be able to deal in dollars. So there's a lot going to happen, but here's the thing my conversation with putin and we've been um. How can we say it? We have no problem understanding one another. He has no problem understanding me nor me him and the direct.

The conversations were, i pointed out. I said you know you've uh occupied before other countries, but the price has been extremely high. How long you can go in and over time, have great loss and economic loss go in and occupy ukraine, but how many years one three five ten? What what is that going to take? What toll does that? Take it's real, it's consequential. So this is not all just a cake walk for russia militarily, they have overwhelming superiority and on the on, as it relates to ukraine, but they'll pay a stiff price immediately near term medium term and long term.

If they do it, um, i'm sorry uh, okay, um, uh, david steiner, new york times. Thank you, mr president. I wanted to follow up on your answer. There uh about russia and ukraine.

When you were in geneva in june, you said to us about president putin. I think the last thing he wants now is a cold war. Now, since then, of course, you've seen him gather these troops hundred thousand troops around ukraine. Your secretary of state, said today he thought he could invade it at any moment.

You've seen the cyber attacks uh and you've seen the demand that he have a sphere of influence in which you would withdraw all american troops and nuclear weapons from what used to be the soviet bloc. So i'm wondering if you still think that the last thing he wants is a cold war and has your view of him changed in the past few months and if it has and he does invade, would your posture be to really move back to the kind of Containment policy that you saw so often when you were still in the senate. The answer is that um. I think he still does not want any full-blown war number.

One number two: do i think he'll test the west test, the united states and nato as as uh significantly as he can. Yes, i think he will, but i think he'll pay a serious and dear price for it that he doesn't think now will cost him. What it's going to cost him and i think, he'll regret having done it now, whether or not i think that uh. How can i say this in a public forum? I think that he is dealing with what i believe he thinks is the most tragic thing.

That's happened to mother russia. In that the berlin wall came down, the empire has been lost and near abroad is gone, etc. The soviet union has been split, um, but think about what he has. He has eight time zones burning tundra that will not freeze again, naturally a situation where he has a lot of oil and gas, but he is trying to find his place in the world between china and the west, and so i'm not so sure that he has Uh david, i'm not so sure he has uh, is certain.

What he's going to do? My guess is, he will move in. He has to do something and by the way i've indicated him. The two things he said to me that he wants guarantees on one. Is ukraine will never be part of nato and two that nato or the there will not be strategic weapons stationed in ukraine? Well, we can work out something in the second piece pretending what he does along the russian line as well.

The russian border in the european area of russia on the first piece we have a number of treaties internationally and in europe that suggests that you get to choose, who you want to be with, but the likelihood that ukraine is going to join nato in the near Term is not very likely based on much more work. They have to do in terms of democracy and a few other things going on there and whether or not the major allies in the west would vote to bring ukraine in right now. So there's rome to work. If he wants to do that, but i think, as usual he's going to well, i probably shouldn't go any further, but i think it will hurt him badly.

It sounds like you are um offering some way out here some off-ramp and it sounds like what it is. Is at least an informal assurance that nato is not going to uh take in ukraine any time in the next few decades and it sounds like you're saying we would never put nuclear weapons there. He also wants us to move all of our nuclear weapons out of europe and not have troops rotating through the old soviet block. Do you think there's space for there? No, no there's not space for that.

We won't permanently station, but the idea we're not gon na we're gon na actually increase troop presence in poland and romania et cetera. If, in fact, he moves because we have a sacred obligation in article 5 to defend those countries, they are part of nato. We don't have that obligation relative to ukraine, although we have great concern about what happens in ukraine. Thank you, um maureen, usa today.

Thank you. Mr president. I want to follow up on your comment on uh bill back better and also ask you a question about the pandemic. You said that you're confident you can pass big chunks of buildback better this year.

Does that wording mean that you are thinking about you're looking at breaking the package up into individual portions and uh, then on the pandemic? Now that the supreme court has blocked the vaccination or test rule for larger businesses? Are you can reconsidering whether to require vaccines for domestic flights as a way to boost vaccination rates? Uh now look uh, first of all, uh on the last part of the question.