What is something positive that we could say about the Tesla event yesterday? And it's that as much as we hated the event and the presentation and I was pissed about it I Find it remarkable that they think whatever this future vehicle is could potentially in the future have twice as many vehicles ever produced as the Model 3 and the model Y. A 380 million vehicle production of the S and Y combined is roughly half of the 700 million unit production of whatever this vehicle is. We expect this vehicle probably to be essentially the Tesla Model 2. my guess is this would probably be for the Asian markets.

Uh, whether that's potentially India China Uh, you know Etc essentially the the Asian markets, possibly even South America as is another possible where essentially a smaller car is more acceptable. And keep in mind that in America while we like big cars, there are less Americans than there are obviously people in South America or in Asia I mean substantially less I mean even just China has like three to four times the population we do out here Now of course we have much more money per capita than people in India or China uh by a factor of of uh, five to ten X But over time that will change. and I think it's very interesting that the expectation is this model too could potentially generate a substantially more Vehicles produced than the three or the why. This was one of the hints that Tesla really gave us.

Uh, if we want to put on sort of the bullish hat, the sort of the the buy the dip hat right? Really, what they're suggesting is hey, pay attention that smaller vehicle is going to be a game changer. Now when we look at what Barclay said as sort of an investor Day preview they suggest suggested that in the future the model 2 would probably be their lowest margin vehicle at around 21 percent and that I believe is what we're showing here. but they're showing that. Also, next to look at this 300 million vehicles for this Sprinter and potentially cyber truck over here, right, we expect this to be a passenger cargo van and then you've got the Cyber truck here.

300 million Vehicles is essentially suggesting that this van and pickup will call it maybe the the cargo lineup. Okay, the cargo lineup could be roughly as big as the three in the Y. Now that's fascinating that the cargo lineup alone could be roughly as big as the three and Y That's pretty bullish on these new vehicles over here. Notice, this is not saying Tesla is not coming to us and saying hey, we're going to produce the Tesla Roadster I Mean maybe maybe that's the Roadster but I don't believe I mean the shape looks roughly in line with Roadster right? But I Don't believe Tesla would expect the Roadster to sell 700 million Vehicles Because after all, if the S and X are only selling 40 million Vehicles why would the Roadster sell 700 right? it wouldn't It would be way too expensive.

So really, they're suggesting here. let's let's just do the math over here. They're suggesting that essentially the current lineup uh, would be responsible for about oh, that's hilarious. 420 million vehicles at the current lineup? Okay, so uh, let's uh, let's just write that down over here.

So the current lineup would be responsible for about 420 million. Vehicles The new lineup could be responsible for about 1.1 billion Vehicles So consider that for a moment: 1.1 billion divided by 420. that means the new vehicle lineup could represent 2.6 x the current vehicle lineup. Now that's actually really interesting.

So this combined over here represents 2.6 x the current lineup ignoring the semi truck, right? So in other words, Tesla themselves thinks, hey, look, the cars we're making right now are not going to be the most popular Vehicles It's these future Vehicles made on the new generation platforms that are going to be the most popular Vehicles Now what's also interesting is that Elon Musk And that really got me thinking Elon Musk In the Q a suggested hey, we're not going to retool these cars to be manufactured by our Optimus robot or or in the more advanced method of manufacturing. Instead, we're going to have our new gigabyte factories Focus probably on these new vehicles and the new vehicle platform. We're not going to go back and retool all the old stuff because that would be very expensive to do. And Elon Musk actually rolled his eyes at the idea of the copy and paste model.

Now I'm the one who's been screaming copy and paste for a year and I'll take egg on the face for for you know, apparently not aligning with with the Elon Vision there fine, like it's okay. I I'm totally willing to be wrong because see, in my opinion, when you make uh a when you make a sort of an argument, when you have an opinion, you can identify when that opinion is starting to be wrong, right? And that's actually this look at Elon's face here when he responds to the idea of the copy and paste model. Okay, so my idea has been hey, look, we've got the S's and X's let's let's Master the Snx production I'm sorry, not the Snx the three and why let's Master the 3ny production at Giga Berlin and Austin Texas and then copy and paste Those factories around the world Tell us about South America Tell us about China and tell us how how we're going to get to substantially more vehicles. But I think Elon has a different vision and that vision is no, no.

Each Factory needs to be uh, potentially an order of a magnitude more efficient than the prior Factory, especially since our new vehicle platform is going to be focused on the new models. Just listen to this seven seconds here. The the term you use Lars is copy paste. So to get it right from the first time, um, you know the look at Elon's face there.

Okay, Elon's face here is uh, rolling his eye at the copy and paste idea and then shaking his head I mean the poor guy's falling asleep because he was probably up at like 2 A.M the night four and then I think he had to go to the I'm not sure if he went to the NASA launch, but hey I admire it. I You know I think it's awesome. but anyway, again, look at, look at the copy and paste and then Elon's reaction. it's it's as clear as day.

Obvious what you need to know about copy base, copy and paste is out the window. We're never saying it again with the exception of it's dead. Okay, watch again. the the term you use Lars is copy paste.

So to get it right from the first time, um Elon Not happy with copy and paste and I think Elon's not happy with the copy and paste idea specifically because of this idea of this, this new vehicle platform. and I think that's what they see the future as and that was probably uh, the one of the most exciting sort of actually bits of new information we got here is not only their opinion on which vehicles are going to be most popular, not the three and the Y which I think is very interesting and that they're not actually going to retool the existing lines for the Sx3y, but that the future lines are actually going to be more robotically capable. Right Right now, they're showing humans working on these individual different pieces and the idea was that hey, we can rather than assembling the car and then disassembling the car and reassembling the car, we could just manufacture the car in the various different pieces. So that way no part of the car is not being worked on while it's being manufactured.

Uh, and really, what you're saying is let's have robots perfect each piece of the car and then we'll puzzle it together like Legos It makes sense. It initially was a little boring. this idea of okay 30 space time efficiency Improvement But really, what they're saying is the Optimus robot is going to be building the most popular vehicles for Tesla and the most popular vehicles for Tesla are yet to come. That's sort of the bullish argument.

and if you believe in this idea which it's obvious Tesla is really the master uh and leader in Innovation when it comes to uh, minimizing cost and maximizing margins, that's redundant. That's the same thing. But anyway, uh, obviously then this becomes a nice little by the Dippy Doodle opportunity here, right? of course. look I I am a long-term investor I Think the presentation was an Sh-19 show.

Uh, but but putting the emotion of yesterday aside this is this is actually very interesting. Uh, especially because this next-gen vehicle is actually really I think where they're thinking uh-uh that's going to be where we make most of our vehicles. Look at this again. 2.6 times as many vehicles are expected to be produced that don't exist yet relative to what is already available from Tesla So this is really the big takeaway from the master plan is that look the next vehicles that are actually going to represent 2.6 times the production of the current lineup or which are going to be manufactured in a much more efficient manner.

potentially 50 as inexpensive via the use of our robots or whatever. This is the master plan? Uh, this is the scale that nobody's really talking about yet. Uh, and so okay. I will give that to Tesla I will give that to Tesla that it was there I think it was very poorly conveyed and only after sobering up after.

basically, you know, falling asleep on the Tesla presentation does that become more apparent. but I think it's It's worth highlighting that because I do think as a long-term investor, this is. uh, this is actually phenomenally exciting. Uh, so I'm I'm very, very interested by that.

Somebody here writes copy and paste assumes the current process is perfect. We should assume everything we do is wrong and can be improved upon. Yeah, I I mean I don't I don't want to come across as suggesting that copy and paste didn't mean stop refining right? Uh, and I understand, then that's sort of like definitionally playing with copy and paste. but I mean obviously if you're going to like okay, good.

we've got a really good model for Giga Austin and Giga Berlin. Let's do it again. Obviously the idea is let's take everything we learned and if we could do things slightly better, great, but let's just get as many factories up as possible. I think that was the idea of copy and paste.

It's let's ramp as many times as we can, but it actually seems like rather than ramping as many times as we can. Now the real plan is how are we going to prepare for that next-gen vehicle platform that robots are basically assembling that we actually think is going to produce 2.6 times as many vehicles as the the next, uh or as the the current Vehicles So I think that's very interesting. Can we call this the Gen Z vehicle? Uh, what the small one are you making fun of? Gen Z? Uh, let's see here. let's just see if there are any other coming down.

Okay, all right. uh I do feel bad for MP materials though. they I think they're down like 11 in pre-market because Tesla Talked about getting rid of rare earth materials now I've always been a big fan of staying away from Commodities sorry Steve Steve the course member super into Commodities I'm always a fan of that because if if the Commodities use change then then the company that benefits is the one making the changes they they're really agnostic to. ultimately the material they use.

You know everybody can make all these Lithium. Investments And if all of a sudden we find a better battery chemistry that doesn't use Lithium all those Lithium Investments Go to Poopsie Dupsies and and the company actually the the end manufacturer is the one that ends up winning right? because they may they use a more efficient material. Maybe one that's a lower cost or whatever. But anyway MP material did reply uh on Twitter and I thought it was kind of a nice little slap at Tesla for their presentation MP Material rights.

Did we miss something? Yawn. It's like straight up Mp materials clap back I mean empty Materials stock is is obviously going to be a little sad today. it's down 10.6 because of this talk about potentially getting rid of uh, rare earth materials and uh, in in the engines of vehicles. and I I do think that a lot of Tesla investors were sort of diversifying with MP materials so that doesn't terribly surprise me.

but yeah, sorry. MP I Did I think their clap back was pretty funny though? So uh. anyway. yeah, so I think the bottom line of that is look, you know, price Target wise, this has really change anything for Tesla No, the icing on the cake is still there.

Obviously, we still. you know we went in with with somewhat salty expectations. anyway for investor day just because Tesla's not that great at doing events. this just happened to be a very horrible event I would be very upset.

uh if if I actually went out there for the event. uh, because I think it was poorly put together I think they could have really spent more time talking about what I just talked about and painting that Vision But this is what happens when you have Engineers putting on a presentation. You know Apple is a company of Engineers but they take the knowledge of the engineers and then they give real presenters that the tool to properly convey the information. Uh, you know and and that's you know when they're just relying on Engineers to do it, you just you're just putting on basically a snooze.

Fest and I hate to say it. it's nothing against Engineers I think a lot of Engineers will be like no Kevin you're right. You know, like I know this isn't meant to be offensive, it's just it's still honest and.