I'm not sure whether to be excited or shocked and really concerned after this Fed meeting. No, not because of the economy, but because of what the FED did not say. Now we'll talk about what they did not say in just a moment, which is absolutely ridiculous. But more importantly, right now, we'll focus on what happened today.

Okay, so let's go through it just like we've got it at Ec.com it's all broken out and I will, of course, give you some added context. Fed rates stay unchanged. Really weird. Two things they did here though: they removed that the banking system is sound and resilient.

They removed that they removed comments about tighter Financial conditions because Financial conditions have loosened and they removed commentary about the potential for additional monetary policy firming. They removed that and changed that with or turned that into Inc. Considering any adjustments to the target range for the FED funds rate, the committee will continue to assess incoming data. Okay, fantastic.

So what's interesting here is Jome Powell said a few things that were quite bullish at the beginning of the meeting. Beginning of the meeting starts off bullish. We're well into restrictive territory. We've been below trend on job gains in the uh prior few months compared to the months before that.

That was interesting to me because we've obviously talked about the idea of loosening labor markets and the potential that there's more of a balance now towards making sure we're not causing unnecessary employment. Jome Powell He's almost like it's almost like he wanted to cut already and and so he's sending these little signals. but he's not allowed to because they're trying to use the March meeting as their signaling tool. Think about this for a moment.

Okay, we'll draw this out really quick, but this is what I think they're doing. They're saying here you go. we're going to go into the January meeting and we're going to punt in January. Then we're going to go into the March meeting.

and what we're going to do is we're going to give an updated summary of projections. So we're gonna punt January which was expected. We're going to punt March But we're going to give the market maybe a dovish summary of economic projections, right? So you take the two CPI and the two job reports. you take those, and if you need to cut, you can, but you probably just give a doish sep summary of economic projections.

Then he answered the question very clearly: Hey, if interest rates stay the way they are, or rather, inflation stays the way it has been on the 6th month, which is 1.9% then policy would be in a different place today. Absolutely. That is a quote of his. So if we stay on the trend we're on now, rates are way lower.

Okay, the question is, will we stay on the six-month path And in order for them to feel comfortable of that, we are going to punt January Give a summary of economic projections for March and then may one is probably going to be the more likely cut time. Keep in mind drum: Powell said that March is not the base case so March is not the base case for a rate cut. Made that very clear. Some of the other things he noted: labor demand is exceeding the supply of workers he did in his speech a few times: Dodge The 6-month PC I think the reason he dodged the 6-month PC multiple times which you can see on this chart.

the 6-month PC is right here. this like orange line. It's 1.9% The 3month is like 1.6% So I think the reason jome Powell Dodges the six and the thre Monon is because he's he. He has his prescription from all the other people of the fed and they're like look, man, you need to buy us until May Okay, whatever you need to say, buy us until May Every other freaking meeting JP comes up there, he's like inflation on the 12 month.

Is this on the the six month? Is this on the 3 months? It's this this time. Yeah, inflation on the 12- month is still elevated and then goes dark. We he knows this is happening so somehow he's trying to buy time for the other members of the FED kicking this can down to May and I think I figured it out. Now what scares me and this is the part that scares me I too Thought May was more likely until they decided they would end the bank term funding program.

So I thought they're going to cut in May It's not going to be March Then they end the bank term funding program and I'm like ooh, ending the bank term funding program, you're going to end up having to cut in March Then what happens today New York Community Bank Collapses 37% If you haven't seen my video on it yet, it's a big deal. The freaking stock still down 37% This is a massive Bank This is a a bank that has over $80 billion in customer deposits and it's down 37% On the day they're losing more money quarter over quarter, they're taking more losses and they don't have any more cash to pay out based on my reading. Okay, watch the video. I have a full video on the channel about it.

the New York Community Bank Another big bank failure is in the Brewing But this is what actually gets really scary is Jerome Pal's basically like what banking crisis we're going to cut in may not March Not only that, not a single reporter okay, not a single freaking reporter asked about the fact that from the statement, they removed quote the banking system is sound and resilient. So they removed the banking system is sound and resilient. Then after removing the banking system is sound and resilient. What did I just tweet on Twitter on X I wrote what the F? Not a single question on Bank stability at today's Fed meeting after New York Community Bank Flagstar plummets 37% and the FED removes banking is sounding resilient from their statement and and I go.

Were the reporters instructed not to ask about banking or were they blind? So they're either dumb and blind or they were asked not to ask about banking because this is a big deal so maybe somebody woke up this morning like I only have to do the FED meeting today I'm going to stop doing any kind of research. This is crazy. Absolutely nuts. Okay, anyway going back to Eack.

oh quickly. Before I mention Eack did you know that we have a coupon code expiring today. You could get the gold membership the uh: how to make more money with productivity and AI how does Kevin get done so much I give all my secrets and gold uh and the AI course stocks and psychology of Money with Buy sell alerts zero to millionaire real estate investing Do it-yourself Property Management be a real estate agent like Kevin or make videos like Kevin does on YouTube whatever all of them available. We do have a price increase happening tonight at midnight, so if you want to get in, make sure to check these out.

You get lifetime access to the course member live streams and when I add new lectures, uh, you get those as well. Okay, so what else uh Dr Powell says we thought we needed a softening economy. Now this was bullish. He says we thought we needed a softening economy, but we might not need a softening economy and if we cut too late, we could end up hurting the economy too much.

We have confidence in the economy, but we want greater confidence on inflation. He refused to give how much time that greater confidence would be. Does he need 7 months? 8 months? 10 months? 12 months of data? What does he need? Because he makes it clear that the six-month path of inflation right now is good and he made that clear later. He did mention the stock market started selling off.

After he mentioned this, he mentioned that hey, we're not declaring Victory There's still some healing going on in labor and the supply chain uh uh side and we have no idea exactly where things are going to go. and if they're going to disrupt inflation. His worry is that if inflation anchors above 2% on the 12 month, then we have to hike more or stay higher for longer, right? Stay at. well, basically stay at 5.2 54 longer if inflation anchors below 2% He says that would not be what we would want.

Uh, and that would basically imply rate Cuts Uh, he's asked. you know he asked. He's asked sort of about a summary of the economy and he says, look, growth is still strong. Labor market indicates the labor market is strong.

Two years of Labor Market under 4% that hasn't happened in 50 years, 6 months of good inflation data. This is a good situation. Let's be honest, this is good. but there is a chance we could see growth which hasn't happened yet.

There is a chance we could see more pain in the labor market. Uh, and there's no guarantee that 12-month inflation will come down. So he's really looking at that 12 month to be con. Uh, convinced that it's down.

Does that mean he's going to wait 6 months? Probably not because he would go too far. Uh, now we did. This is shocking. We did not end up getting Bingo Uh, we got a lot of items here, but we did not get bingo today.

Uh, we did not hear anything about that banking sound and resilient. Otherwise, we would have had Bingo that he said that every freaking meeting that should have been an easy one didn't talk about New York Community Bank Red Sea Geopolitics, manufacturing China Germany Nothing. The only thing we talked about at this meeting was basically uh, PC over and over and over again. We didn't even talk about the bank term funding program.

bro. this is like critical information: Are the banks going to owe all of their money back at the bank term funding programs expiration? A or I mean cuz if they owe it all back when a banking crisis, are they going to get loan extensions? Or they going to have some kind of repayment period? What if a bank needs help afterwards? But these are important questions. This is like the first time I'm like pulling my hair out going bro. What? Why are these questions? like mental? These were so bad.

Uh I don't get it. So either the FED is trying to like hide the banking issue uh, in the bank term funding, uh, crisis or they're blind to it. And and I don't know which one's more scary that it's being censored or people are blind to the problem I Don't know, but it's a problem. uh.

regarding March He made it clear that March is not the base case. We already touched on that the Reverse Repo facility does not have to go to zero to start having cuts. And yes, you could have Cuts with QT Okay, great. Uh, so now the big question is.

what happens. All right. here's what's gonna happen. The market needs to unpriceable for March So we're going to go from a coin toss to like 20% Okay, that's why the market is red.

The Market's going to have to absorb that. We have to wait six more weeks between March 20th and May. 1st for the rate cut. Big deal.

It's 25 basis points for 6 weeks. Suck it. It's not that big of a deal, but the market is going to have to eat that up. and so the Market's going to have a little bit of an adjustment here Once we finally unpriced the March rate cut, then we need to pay attention to the banks, the rest of earnings uh, and uh.

and then we just sit here and pray and within the next, uh, probably two weeks, we're expecting to fundraise for Househ Hack.com Uh, again, if you want more updates on the real estate startup, there's a link down below. We have uh, another update uh, video that we posted about a week ago and we'll have another one coming out soon. Go to Ec.com to see my full summary on uh, you know pretty much the research that we do some of the things that we're paying attention to. Uh, and then of course, go to Meetkevin.com to check out that coupon code for the courses on building your wealth and access to those course member live streams in the meantime.

Uh, huge thank you. Really appreciate all of you. It's uh, you know it's been a ride the last few, uh, uh, few years and the fact that uh, you know somewhere around 22,000 of y'all chose at the same time to hang out with me uh is pretty remarkable. So uh, as a as a thank you, go yourself.

Is that clear? All right? I had to do it. Anyway, that's the FED update. Thanks so much I'm going to pay attention to the banks now. If you haven't watched the rest of the bank videos, go watch the bank videos.

Join me in the market open live stream. Why not advertise these things that you told us here? I Feel like nobody else knows about this? We'll We'll try a little advertising and see how it goes. Congratulations man, you have done so much. People love you People look up to you Kevin P there financial analyst and YouTuber meet Kevin Always great to get your take even though I'm a licensed Financial adviser, real estate broker and becoming a stock broker.

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