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00:00 Questions.
00:51 Delinquencies.
03:03 Prices.
06:10 Cyber Monday Sale.
07:09 The Return of 1970s Inflation.
13:13 The Fed Failure of Arthur Burns.
15:55 Inflation Today.
18:42 The Fed's Flip Today.
19:45 The Fed's Dangerous Mistake.
32:00 Misconceptions.
33:46 Conclusions.
✅How is the triple wave of 1970s inflation vs today. How does it compare to the 2008 Housing Crisis and what does 1981 say about today's Housing Market?
✅30-day delinquencies ABOVE levels prior to covid.
✅Prices substantially higher, upsetting consumers.
✅Housing crash expectations. Lowest level of mortgage applications and affordability unreasonably high.
✅What did Nixon do and what was the Economic Stabilization Act of 1971? The Nixon Shock.
✅What will it mean for the 2024 election?
📝Disclaimer:
This video is not personalized financial advice for the viewer. Read the Offering Circular before investing in HouseHack.

Hey everyone Me: Kevin Here in this video, we're going to discuss the Federal Reserves a great reset. We are going to discuss a 1970s inflation versus today. How is it similar? and how is it different? Are we bound to repeat the same triple wave of inflation that will end up destroying our economy and potentially even the US dollar? What about the housing crisis today? How does it compare to the last time we ended our three waves of inflation in 1981? And how is that different from 2008? We'll also touch on the banking crisis and the certainty of the recession as predicted by the 10-year yield curve, as well as the real danger coming up happy. Cyber Monday Let's get started first.

with data released today, it is clear Americans are starting to suffer again: Average credit card utilization A among 30-day plus delinquent categories based on household incomes now above levels that we saw before the pandemic. We could see in the 25 to $50,000 income threshold, we are above previous levels. In other words, those who are falling behind are falling behind even worse than they were falling behind before the pandemic. Despite all of the money printing that has occurred for the 50 to 75 middle class tier.

Same thing for the under 25,000 tier. Also, same thing. virtually new highs for the 75 to $100,000 tier and the six figure club. We also have new highs in other words, more debt utilization on delinquent accounts and that's by every single income threshold.

Here we could see net charge offs and those 30-day delinquencies also higher than their priv previous. Peaks Total Money Market Funds sometimes seen as a signal of fear by investors. After all, if investors thought that everything was going to be just fine, the benefit of a 5% yield in a money market would be substantially outweighed by the gains you could receive investing in bonds or stocks or real estate. So at a 5% yield, this skyrocketing of money market funding is a sign of sideline.

ISM In other words, people are fearful and they're not certain that they're going to get a better deal in stocks, real estate, or bonds, even though some of them are at quite depressed levels and so they're sitting on the sidelines. A lot of that could have to do with inflation expectations. After all, look at what's happened with prices here. We can see that rents across the United States are up 28% since 2020.

So basically, since before the pandemic, rents have skyrocketed Since then, mortgage rates now sitting at 8% substantially higher than the below 3% we had before the pandemic. Yet for some reason, home values, while they dipped going into the end of 22, have broadly started to recover. Again, very strange. all the while.

Chicken dishes are up 32% burgers are up 23%, pizza's up 177%, pasta and noodles up 14% Look at this savings across all incomes obviously uneven. the top 10 or the top 1% rather had the largest gains of 32% savings increases during the pandemic. In other words, the pandemic itely made the rich richer and these pandemic savings are certainly starting to WAN away. But that's not changing the fact that we're seeing the defaults across all income levels that we talked about at the beginning of the video, which is strange because if we really had that much more money, we should have less stress, not more.
We're actually seeing more stress. And so that's now leading folks to wonder about this chart. This chart, right here is a graph of consumer price and in early 1970, 1969, 1970 we saw inflation Skyrocket only for it to continue skyrocketing in 1974, and five only for it to continue skyrocketing even higher into 1980. Leading a lot of folks to say this right here, this postco Spike of inflation is just the first wave, and we're about to experience three total waves.

And with three waves of inflation, people expect housing will crash After all, here is a reventure Consulting chart showing mortgage applications to buy a house the lowest level since 1994, and the income needed to actually afford to buy a home Today sitting at $111,000 You need to be a six-figure earner just to be able to buy a median income house, an average house. And so in this video, we have to start reconciling. What does all of this mean? Are we screwed? What's going to happen, and what are the biggest risk factors that could really destroy the economy making us say, you know what Maybe we don't want to buy bonds yet because maybe yields will go even higher. Maybe we don't want to buy stocks yet because if yields go higher then stocks will go down.

And maybe we don't want to buy real estate yet because, well, real estate crashed in 2008, right? So couldn't that happen again? Well, we have some historical context because we don't want to play the this time is different card. In fact, what we want to do is learn from the mistakes of history and make sure we don't repeat the same mistakes before we hit the answers. Because today is Cyber Monday I Want to announce our Cyber Monday sale? Go to meet Kevin.com to learn more or email us at Staff Meetkevin.com for bundle ups. But remember this: Cyber Monday Day is also the day we're releasing all of the lectures in this gold course.

All of the lectures are live now it is no longer on pre-sale and they're all brand new lectures. In fact, I Teach them in this very set in this studio where I teach you how to prevent paying taxes that you don't need to pay, How to save taxes, How to retire early, How to minimize your liability How to start a side hustle. We get you started in bookkeeping, We get you started in whatever we think you need. And it's me teaching these courses on building your wealth and retiring early.

So if you want to avoid the pitfalls that you wish you had known 10 years ago, but you didn't even know what pitfalls to avoid, this is the course for you. Go check it out. It comes with the course member live streams. You can go to Meetkevin.com to learn more.
So are we returning to the early 70s style of inflation that will lead us to complete disaster and getting absolutely reset by the Federal Reserve just like Chairperson Vulker had to do in 1980 and 1982, leading to a massive spike in unemployment, which we'll talk about later. Well folks, here is some very important background that we need to know. The first Spike of inflation that we saw in America occurred in late 1969. Take a look at this chart: I Really want you to pay attention to this left side right here.

You could really start seeing in about 69 68 69. That's when inflation really started to take off. So I want you to observe 6970 Lot of inflation? Okay, then we've got over here. All of a sudden, inflation comes down, but it shoots up again.

Why is that? Why did it go down? and why did it shoot up again? And what lessons can we learn from there to avoid making those same mistakes? Well, let's understand what happened around that time on August 15th, 1970. To combat some of that higher inflation we started seeing at the end of the 1960s, thanks in part due to the Vietnam War President Nixon decided to pass and implement the Economic Stabilization Act for the next year 1971. That was also the same year the United States left the Gold Standard and in that 1971 stabilization Act Nixon sought the power to issue an executive order on November 13th, 1971 and what he said is that's it. Nobody is allowed to raise prices anymore on wages, rents, salaries, or any prices.

Nothing was allowed to go up. Phase one was referred to as the Nixon shock where basically we froze all prices in place for 90 days. Those were really stringent price ceilings that prevented inflation from continuing to go up by law. So by law we prevented pricing from going up, Which that's really interesting because if we go back to the CPI chart here, it makes sense.

then if in 1971 sort of this area. over here we started implementing price limitations or Price freezes that we would see inflation come down. This chart isn't exactly perfect, so we could have seen the implementation somewhere around here as well. So what happens after we have the implementation of price controls? Well, you might remember from high school that anytime you say hey, we want to implement price controls and in this case we want to implement a price ceiling, then what we actually do is we say we're going to limit prices right here.

But unfortunately the quantity that ends up being supplied at those lower prices is less. so we end up with a shortage at these lower prices. The quantity that we're demanding is here, but the quantity that's supplied is here. So right here we end up facing shortages and that's exactly what happened in the early 1970s.

We Face substantial shortages for goods and services that individuals wanted which actually really just fueled the pressure cooker and ended up making price inflation worse as soon as the price controls started to be removed. Can't have price controls forever? certainly not at least in a capitalistic economy. And look at what some of the next phases were in: Nick plan. and then let's look back at the inflation chart.
After the Nixon shock, Nixon pulled back all of the freezes and instead went for some more structured price controls. In other words, will allow certain items to go up a certain percentage because there were too many shortages for regular goods and services. Certainly had an oil price shock as well, but that came in 1974, which just made the pain of just not having enough even worse. was actually eerily similar to what we saw during Covid, where at first we didn't have enough toilet paper and then we didn't have enough chips.

And I'm not talking Duritos either. I'm talking chips to go into washing machines and cars and computers. Massive chip shortages much like what we saw in the early 70s, except the difference being today, we didn't Implement price controls. So prices naturally Rose As there were massive shortages back then, Nixon said no way, we won't allow those sort of price increases.

Well, unfortunately, as they moved from Phase 2 to three and they became more flexible with the price limitations and the Authority for the Economic Stabilization Act, which was useful for the time it was in existence expired. Well then we started going back to the Free Market. And boy, the Free Market does not like price controls. so you'll notice with a massive surge of inflation as Nixon's price controls started getting pulled back and were eventually eliminated.

Except this time, instead of having a peak of about 6% inflation, we actually ended up with a peak of nearly 125% inflation substantially worse than the first time around. This all the while, we just left the Gold Standard which sent a massive signal to Americans that said hey, you know what prices are not only going to go up, but now your money is not even backed by gold So just have faith I guess. And so the faith that you were supposed to have in Fiat was based entirely on Rising prices as price controlled were removed. It didn't help that Arthur Burns was more concerned with what politicians wanted than what was good for the economy.

This is why the Federal Reserve today demands that they be independent from politicians. Of course, many people are going to Ru their eyes at that and say yeah, right, they're independent. We'll see them come out swinging for the election Entirely possible. It could also be a coincidence.

In fact, Mr Arthur Burns mismanaged Federal Reserve policy so badly that he sent the message to Americans that, while they felt inflation was getting worse and their dollar was becoming worth less, especially since it was no longer backed by gold, he thought it was a good idea to raise rates, then lower rates, then raise rates, then lower. lower, then raise, then pause, then raise, then pause, then raise, then pause, then raise, then pause, then lower, then raise, then raise, then raise, then lower, then pause. As you can see, there was really no consistency or leading effort by the FED to actually drive any kind of narrative of what Americans should come to expect. This, in hindsight, became known as one of the greatest failures of Federal Reserve monetary policies.
In fact, here on the Federalreserve.gov webbsite you could see here. the FED inadvertently committed a technical error by implementing an interest policy rule in which nominal interest rates removed less than expected inflation. In other words, the FED didn't shoot ahead of the Running Deer The Fed was constantly chasing the deer and not catching up to the deer of inflation. It's pretty important that we talk about how today compares to the 70s, and after we talk about how today compares to the 70s with regard to inflation, we're going to compare how we might end up in a recession just like we did in 81, what that did to real estate prices, and what that might do to the banking sector.

First, quick shout out to the Meet Kevin Live Channel If you want to join me live Every single morning the market is open. The videos will be titled stock Market Open and then the date every day the Market's open at 5:25 you could be there, there's no cost, and we'll cover the morning's news together. In addition to that, if you'd like to learn more about my real estate startup, House Hack. we've now moved that to its own channel.

Both of these are linked down below. The first video I just posted a couple days ago and you could see it's called what is House Hack a Meet Kevin startup and you can see even in the thumbnail we depict exactly what House Haack is and we get right into that content. So go check out those channels if you'd like. It's down below right next to the link for those courses on building your wealth at Meetkevin.com This is a chart of current levels of inflation in the United States As you could see, housing is starting to roll over.

In fact, a lot of folks think that housing, which has been so freaking slow to be measured by the bizarre way. the government measures housing prices which is via owner equivalent rents which is kind of maddening and super delayed. Sometimes by 18 months, housing could end up helping drive us into deflation, even as some of these potentially start popping up Again, It's not just our inflation reads though, which some people called CP lie, it's also deflation in the Euro Zone, especially in Germany. In fact, the Euro Zone may be in outright recession, with the latest GDP reads coming in at negative.

one% Ne4 to 12% producer price indices in uh uh, Germany as well as negative PP and Manufacturing price rates in China. With the idea that these large manufacturing nations may actually end up exporting deflation to us, exporting deflation is just a fancy way of saying oh sure, uh, you can buy your stuff in America for substantially more money, or you could have it manufactured in Germany or Bulgaria or China or anywhere else for substantially less. And of course, since we're in a capitalistic economy, most business businesses will choose to manufacture things where it is cheapest, not necessarily where it is American Now when we look at Core CPI and this, of course, over a trend from a year ago, we can see here Core Cepi coming down nicely. Core Services X housing coming down nicely, and even though these are very, very volatile on a month-over-month basis, when we look at 3month moving averages for these on a month-over-month basis, we see almost all of these SE numbers trending down nicely.
These positive inflation reads, especially over the last few months, have helped us finally feel like maybe we've hit Peak treasury yields which basically hit about 5% as Bill Amman and his fellow hedge fund managers decided to short the heck out of the treasuries market which remember when you short treasuries prices go down and then yields go up. The reason you think yields would go up and you would sell or short treasuries is because you think the fed's going to go higher for longer. but the Federal Reserve has recently u-turned in their tune of what direction they might actually want to go. And that's probably because of what happened in 1982.

and that flip from the Federal Reserve is probably because of what happened in 1982, which is a big oopsy. Dupsies consider though first for a moment what the Federal Reserve just said. The right way to think about it is what's potential growth this year. TR People think Trend growth over a long period of time is a little bit less than 2% or I would say just around 2% But um, what we've had is with with the you know Improvement in the size of the labor force as I mentioned through both participation and uh, immigration and with the the you know the better functioning in the labor market and with with H you know the unwinding of the supply chain and shortages and those kinds of things you're seeing actually elevated potential growth.

There's catchup growth. that can happen in potential, and that means that if you're grow, you could be growing at 2% this year and still be glowing growing below the increase in the potential output of the economy that I Hope that's clear. that's really what's going on. That's that's why I would say it as potential.

but if you did, you catch that the Federal Reserve for a very long time for years has said hey, wait a minute. You know if the economy is going to grow at 2% we just want the economy to grow a little bit under that so we don't create inflation. But wait a minute Now Jerome Powell has walked that back because that might imply you have to do a lot more to press the economy below that. Now Jerome Powell is saying well.
you know if the economy on under normal interest rates could grow here, you know we just want it to be a little bit less than that. It doesn't actually have to be below Trend. it just has to be below potential. So as long as our rates are working a bit, we're good.

This is actually a massive U-turn It's a U-turn that's inspired by inflation Trends coming down, possibly driven by the desire not to mess up the second part of the Dual mandate which is this chart you're about to get explained by me. but the FED has many tools for not going too far. What one Of those tools is by stopping, no longer raising rates anymore. And that's essentially what Jerome Powell has implied here that they're done.

The second thing that they can do is they can be a little bit more patient with regard to inflation. This would be called opportunistic disinflation in other words, the same policy that we used from 1981 to now. As you can see as interest rates normalized down, that same policy could be used now to slowly lower rates as inflation goes down and not super prioritize inflation anymore and instead prioritize jobs. But why would the FED be motivated to prioritize jobs? After all, their mandate is a dual mandate, one of stable prices and maximum employment.

Well, what happened 18 months after the Federal Reserve raised rates at Peak, which they just did this summer. What happened 18 months later? In other words, around the end of 2024, the unemployment rate skyrocketed. That is exactly what the Federal Reserve is trying to avoid. See, the Federal Reserve isn't only trying to avoid the mistakes of someone like Arthur Burns.

Remember Arthur Burns made a big mistake Arthur Made the mistake of start stop. He made the mistake of breaking people's infl expectations. To the upside: people came not to trust the Federal Reserve. They had no trust for the Federal Reserve and they believe that inflation would continue to go up because why wouldn't it? It has been for the last 10 years as of say 77, it's been going up for 10 years.

Why would it not continue to go up? And it wasn't until Paul Vulker came to put the pants back on so to speak and say listen, you must trust us, We will break this economy. We are going to go up until you believe us and you start thinking inflation's coming down which actually started happening in 82, 83 and ' 84 the Federal Reserve including Paul Vulker remarked ohuh, people's inflation expectations are going down. This is fantastic news. The problem though is the Fed doesn't only want to avoid problem one, which is high inflation expectations and a lack of trust which they already screwed up with the whole inflationist transitory thing.
So they're starting off a bad foot, right? Not only do they want to avoid this, but they also want to avoid problem number two, which is this 18mon lag in employment all of a sudden, destroying our economy potentially right around the time conveniently of the election, we've already started to see our jobs. Reports indicate that we are in a late stage cycle. A late stage cycle is where most of the jobs that are created are created by the government. We've we've already started seeing that the government in healthcare taking a disproportionate share of new jobs.

Why is that a risk? Because it means uhoh, We could be six months into massive unemployment I Write it as UI It's unemployment insurance. that's the nickname we give for unemployment. We could be six months in. So in other words, in a year from now, solely because of the work the FED did in the last year and a half could come back to bite us.

And so, because inflation is trending down, the FED has to start pulling back on their pressure on inflation alone while pretending to act like ah, we're still going for 2% They're slowly starting to soften their stance and flip flop because they don't want to make the second mistake and cause massive and unnecessary unemployment. Because as Jerome Powell himself says, that causes unnecessary human suffering and that is not what the Federal Reserve wants to cause. So what does that mean for real estate? And where are we today? By the way, with inflation, break evens. And what about the banking crisis? Where do we sit with all of these numbers? as well as the inverted yield curve? Well, the cool thing about the inverted yield curve is it does usually predict a recession.

anytime we get under this roughly white dotted line. Here, we tend to have a recession and you'll notice that the last time we inverted this deeply. which you see, how deeply we inverted here was back in the early ' 80s. So the FED wants to avoid this pain.

So far, they're on the trajectory of creating just that pain. Now, some people say this curve is messed up like this because inflation, expectations and inflation itself is so high now or has been so high now and was so high back then. So it makes sense that in the short term you need a higher yield on a short-term Bond then you need a long-term Bond Other people say explain it how you want This says a recession's coming and joblessness is coming and I think the Bears might be right here. and Jerome Pow though knows that and he knows that that unemployment is coming.

So when we had unemployment in the early 80s, what ended up happening to the housing market? Did the housing market end up substantially crashing as the Fed was dealing with inflation? Well, here is a chart of year-over-year home prices And what we found with year-over-year home prices is that they did go negative by about 1 a 12% for a slight blip in approximately 1982 in conjunction with the heavy levels of unemployment that we faced. Now, we don't yet have those levels of unemployment, so the housing market has been relatively stable. In fact, we're still positive in terms of price appreciation. This is a change year-over-year chart.
So anything above. this means prices are still going up. Of course, they're going up at a slower rate, but they're still going up unlike the price deflation we saw where prices fell 30 to 40% in Uh, between 2007 and 2011 2012 where some markets bottomed So interestingly, perhaps today is not different at all from the early 80s. Perhaps today.

the next thing that's going to happen is quite frankly, little for the housing market. but the next big problem is actually unemployment. See, maybe this time isn't different at all. We're actually in the same exact path.

See people say well Kevin Why wouldn't this be a 2008? Well, because back in the early 80s and today, people had stable mortgages that they could afford. They didn't have the interest rate interest only ninja loans and deadbeat loans that they had in 2008. In 2008, not only did you have deadbeat loans, but you were paid to walk away by short sale lenders who didn't want to go through a foreclosure process. So they'd pay you $10 to $220,000 just to leave your house and sell it and eradicate all the other debt that you had.

But today, just like in the early 80s, we have way more Equity We have stable 30-year fixed rate financing and we have less of a desire for people to move because rates are so high so we actually don't get price discovery. which if we look at what's recently been happening with pricing by looking at a 4-we moving average, we'd actually see the Orange Line Here is 2023. We can actually see this is the months of Supply chart. In the months of Supply Chart Here, we're roughly in line with the supply months of Supply that we had in 2022.

Obviously that Trends up in the winter season, that's generally normal 21, we stayed a little below Trend there. there was such a shortage. Prices are actually now slightly above what they were last year. That white line there represents 2022, the blue represents how much above last year we are now.

Don't get me wrong, prices did correct, especially in some of the uh, short-term rental, heavy and covid heavy markets. We definitely Nationwide saw prices go from about a Peak in May of 2022 down to a low nearly a 15% correction across the entire country in December of 2022. And that's actually been even worse for new home developers now. I'll explain new home developers in a moment, but think about that for a moment.

If we are really no different than the 80s, then it makes sense. Maybe that really, we just see a volume collapse of real estate rather than a massive price collapse for resale real estate at the same time. The biggest concern that the Federal Reserve should have going forward would be unemployment and not inflation. Unless of course, inflation starts rearing its head again, but so far it doesn't look like it is knock on W that it doesn't.
What about new construction homes though? Well, new construction homes are a little bit manipulative in that most new construction homes buyers don't actually pay the prices that are listed that the homes sell for. Usually these prices are propped up by building incentives. For example, a new construction home builder might say, hey, pay $480,000 in this house for this house, we'll give you $50,000 of upgrades, you know, worth 40. Let's say, for flooring, countertops, cabinets, whatever.

So buyer's really paying like 440? That would be just a quick example. Recently though, those sticker prices, even including those upgrades, haven't been as attractive for home buyers to actually buy new construction builds with. And so we have started to see those sticker prices come down actually quite a bit. If you look on the left side of this chart, you can see we hit a high of nearly $500,000 and that level has now come down.

Now we're sitting just around $415,000 That represents a good 15 plus per discount on new construction properties compared to exactly their Peak. That's probably a normalization of, ah, these incentives of stuff aren't working anymore. We actually have to lower the price, but it's definitely still a red flag to pay attention to because if new construction home prices come down, they could also Drive non- new construction or resale prices down. And this makes sense because after all, if you have more new construction homes continuing to be built and they're sold at lower prices, why buy an older home when you could just buy a newer home at potentially cheaper price? So this is definitely a red flag, but it's unclear if that is going to be anything like 2008 or 1981.

Now a few extra things before we get to our conclusion. First, it's very common for folks on Twitter to say things like this: The music is about to stop if you stay at the ball too late, everything may turn into pumpkin and mice. Basically quote tweeting a photo here of us household cumulative ex savings. uh, or excess savings.

rather going all the way down and trending down to about zero, probably by April 2024. The problem with this post is it forgets that cumulative excess savings before the pandemic were also zero and the party hadn't started. In fact, the party was still going. so I Personally don't find this too useful.

Just like I don't find this too useful. Here's a self-proclaimed PhD who says the Federal Reserve is just making up policy as they go go Which is really rich because the Fed's literally been saying that four years. This isn't a surprise, they've just been saying look, when the data comes in, we'll make a decision. But anyway, because of that, they suggest that the Federal Reserve created this Hydra and they don't know how to kill the bank term funding program.
It's worth remembering that the banking facility that the Federal Reserve has has about $11 billion in it. $11 billion might sound like a lot, but when we compare that to the entire scope of the banking system which is about2 trillion in size, the bank term funding program is super nominal and probably not relevant in whether or not we should be fearful of what's to come. So how do we draw conclusions for so, how do we draw conclusions from this and what should we do? Well, let's write those out. So first of all, we must consider that unless inflation pops up again, the Federal Reserve is probably done.

Let's just call it the FED is done raising rates. The pause is in the FED had their last rate hike this summer and that starts an 18mon clock to where in 1982, we caused massive unemployment. Which means the 12 month. Let's write that down, the 12 month clock is ticking.

Now the question is, will the Federal Reserve respect that the clock is ticking. So far, markets believe that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by about 9/10 of a percent by December of 2024. If they do, that could be supportive to some interest rate sensitive sectors like cars or solar or otherwise. But if this clock is truly tricky, if this, this clock is truly ticking, then the reality is: the Federal Reserve might have to cut rates by a lot more than .9% In fact, the Federal Reserve might have to cut rates by as much as 2.9% We'll call it 3% Hopefully, as inflation goes down, the Federal Reserve is able to do this to prevent large layoffs from really destroying the economy, Because even though we can have fluctuations in home builder prices between let's say May and November of the next year uh, that is perfectly drawing lines from top to bottom.

The reality is housing is driven by employment, and if we can avoid an unemployment recession like we had in 2008, or we can avoid the unemployment recession like we had in 82 where prices barely came down, If we could just avoid an unemployment recession of either of those scenarios, there's a good chance housing prices might actually start trending up again rather than down down in 2024, especially as yields start coming down. Now, some do argue that as rates go down, inventory will go up and we'll have more price Discovery and therefore prices will come down. So there's a risk factor there as well. But if the Federal Reserve does prioritize unemployment, many are fearful that the Federal Reserve will end up inducing more inflation.

The reason people believe this is because our economy was so strong in 2021. One that a lot of folks thought, oh my gosh, this is great. The economy is killing it. And then we got inflation.

So we almost trained people with recent history to believe that a strong economy equals inflation. But the reality is, we've had a relatively strong economy since 1982 and we've been facing disinflation. Sure, there have been booms and busts like in 87, but we bottomed out way higher than where we were in ' 82 bubble 08 covid recession. It's worth remembering that a strong economy does not equal inflation, that we can have a strong capitalistic economy without inflation.
And the reason that exists is because the Federal Reserve is actually constantly fighting deflation. See, capitalism reduces prices, it makes things more competitive like the delicious prices we now have on that Cyber Monday sale at Meetkevin.com But the Federal Reserve doesn't want deflation because that makes it harder for people to want to take on debt because the debt becomes more expensive to pay off. So the FED prints money to induce a slight bit of inflation, to encourage you to spend and encourage the economy to keep growing and help you pay off your debt easier as hopefully you earn more while your debt stays the same. As a result, the Federal Reserve really hates deflation even worse than they hate inflation, and this could end up leading to the money printers coming right back on conveniently around the time of the election.

and I strongly believe this election won't be decided by how people feel today. It'll be decided by how people feel in a year from now. Thanks so much for watching! If you like this style of presenting, leave me a comment down below. If you didn't like it, leave me a comment.

We'll see you in the next one. Bye.

By Stock Chat

where the coffee is hot and so is the chat

31 thoughts on “The fed is about to repeat a dangerous mistake.”
  1. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Chad Bowman says:

    Great video Kev

  2. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars RealGeorgeHere says:

    Kevin, your video provided the historical knowledge I've been longing for. Reading information is one thing, but hearing it from you with direction and narrative makes it stick in a way that's invaluable.Thank you kind sir

  3. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Tyler Jankowski says:

    full financial course in < 40 min

  4. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Comic Lover says:

    Terrific video, Kevin. We're very aligned on where things are heading. Here is my personal opinion:

    I believe the Fed is cornered and must lower rates. I predict 2024 will look just like the first 2 QTRS of 2022. Extreme demand, extreme activity, and extreme migration. How extreme will largely depend on how fast they cut. If were in charge of the Fed, I would cut big and fast. Reason being is if they cut slowly, they run the risk of limiting supply since slowly lowering rates will bring back buyers but not a lot of sellers. Most sellers won't sell unless rates get down to 4.5-5%. It is my opinion that if they cut rates to get mortgage interest rates down to 4.5-5% right away, you'll have a more balanced market of buyers and sellers and lessen the risk of housing prices going a lot higher.

    I believe the Fed will cut rates aggressively starting either in March or possibly in January. The reasons why:

    No more government giveaways since we have a divided House (IMO this was the main cause of inflation, not the Fed)

    Slowing economy

    Slowing inflation

    Deflation in certain sectors

    Declining energy prices

    Interest on the Federal Debt (this is the main reason why the Fed will cut soon)

    Record Federal deficits (scary amount)

    Possible war (this could potentially increase our current spending 10x)

    Commercial properties adjusting which is causing major problems for regional banks (this problem gets solved by lowering rates)

    Declining wage increases (a wage-price spiral is the Feds only remaining concern, and it appears to be abated)

    Election year

  5. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Tim L says:

    Let's not say "despite" the money printing, but rather BECAUSE of it. While it's rare for so much direct injection of money into the hands of the public at large as the stimulus provided, it was still far outweighed by the Cantillon Effect. Also with the supply chain issues, that expansion of the money supply couldn't be absorbed by foreign currency inflation as was normal, so it smacked the U.S. dollar-holding consumer in the face, depleting and diminishing the purchasing power of those stimulus savings rather quickly.

  6. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Allen says:

    let get a monitor next to the camera

  7. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars lovepeacebliss says:

    "Mistakes"

  8. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Kyle Granger - Birmingham Alabama Real Estate says:

    Great video. My question would be is there a way to see how many people own multiple homes such as AirBnBs because IF we see the unemployment could that cause potential unloading of these properties? Causing home prices to fall due to no demand?

  9. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Don Vliegenthart says:

    I like this new style of presentation for educational purposes. It’s almost like taking a class and gaining knowledge and macro economics, which is very important for everyone to learn about. I believe that it helps me make better decisions on how to invest for the long-term.

  10. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars John Webb says:

    Enjoyed watching this video

  11. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Brandon Bernal says:

    I like this style of presentation, but the editing could use some improvement. Left in a few restarts that could have been edited out.

  12. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Tim L says:

    Ugly sweater season is back!

  13. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars 1upization says:

    Bitcoin only thing that saves society.

  14. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Brad Darnell says:

    I’m buying treasury bonds

  15. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars FF Justin says:

    Really enjoyed this one 👍

  16. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars ImHeathen! says:

    It's funny, I like and learn a lot from you, Kevin, but dang, your video just showed people are screwed with money and hear you are asking for people's money. You are part of that 1% where the rich got richer and you still want money from your lesser audience

  17. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars TQLLA says:

    Outside of TV's, EVs and houses, I feel like inflation is still everywhere. If the Fed starts cutting rates, I think inflation will run away again.

  18. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars ususopen says:

    you label the D and S lines incorrectly

  19. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars RoxStar says:

    Liked the style 👍

    Great job as ever keep on trucking Kevin your reviewed structure seems great, consistency as ever will succeed.

    Top bloke ✋

  20. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Kimberly Thompson says:

    I want more of this type of information. Thanks, Kevin. 😊

  21. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Beltwork Projects says:

    Unemployment is gonna jump when corporate debt resets next year and we get defaults coming in. Buying RE now is like catching a falling knife. Spring 24 economic headlines are gonna be negative every month. Even with 6% mortgage rates the RE market is gonna be fucked. A small 2% rise in unemployment is gonna be noticeable in the housing market. It's the white collar people that are gonna continue to get hit and they are the ones still buying. The Fed wants this correction.

  22. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars JS says:

    D and S lines are labeled wrong 🙂 Should be swapped,.

  23. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Moses Valenzuela says:

    Great video! I think all this data and speculation just strengthens the higher for longer narrative and unemployment going up so inflation doesnt end up like the 70s and 80s. Buckle up!

  24. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Carl Mazziotti says:

    Little wenibaby elf needing views lol

  25. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars ANU says:

    Nice

  26. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Mister Lister says:

    We definitely had enough toilet paper and anyone who thinks we didn’t is a follower of the cult

  27. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Miky P says:

    Lol who cares stock market ralley is here

  28. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Calve88 says:

    This was a great presentation. Great calm tone, no crazy oohs and ahhs. Just feeding the data (with explanation as applicable) to the consumer and letting them digest for themselves. Very much enjoyed this video and watched from start to finish. Thanks!

  29. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars ContentCasa says:

    This is gold

  30. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Ty smith says:

    Literally said nothing. Just look at the dollar purchasing power since the fed was created. If we don’t inflate we go into a depression. It is that simple.

  31. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars T M says:

    If you have massive unemployment and stocks crash people are gonna have to sell their homes to survive. Into a buyers market no less.

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