Hey everyone me kevin here and hi lauren there's meet lauren tim leave comments. Tell her to make videos again. You got ta make videos again you hear that yeah yeah, all right, we got ta convince her okay. I don't have a lot of time uh quickly, though i wan na give you uh a few just some things to pay attention to uh the most important thing right now.

That's, in my opinion, uh something that's actually somewhat bullish on the horizon follows what the president uh bost, president bostik of the federal reserve, one of the presidents, one of the bank presidents, said uh, one of the things that he talked about was that he's not convinced That we have to go with that 50 bp hike in september, then. Instead, we could be going with a 25 bp hike. This has completely changed the rate, monitors futures and it's affecting treasury yields. More people are feeling more confident right now to move from stocks and dump into bonds, because they view that, if well, if we don't go with 50 in september and we go 25 for the rest of the year, we're only going to get to like 2.5 or 2.75 by the end of the year, we'll barely be above neutral.

We won't end up getting to three percent and in other words, markets are thinking huh. Does that potentially mean there could be a ceiling on treasury yields? Let's flee stocks, let's get into treasury yields for safety right now. That's why we're seeing the 10-year plummet all the way down to like the 2.7 range right now and we're seeing a lot of pain in stocks, because people are like. Oh my gosh, after a snap and the complete disaster of snap uh and leaving basically all the online consumer discretionaries to go down looking, obviously, google uh and not just snap but google pinterest trade desk, you name it they're all getting whacked because i mean you've even Got the best buy ceo saying like yeah? No, we've we're slowing down.

Okay, things are slowing down a lot more than we thought. All these things combined are suggesting that okay. Well, if there's a limit to what the fed's doing, let's go hide in treasuries. Let's get out of stocks while we wait for essentially that sort of consumer discretionary bottom and we see what happens with consumers.

That's leading treasury yields to fall because again, people buy those prices goes up and uh, and then the yields come come down with it uh. When prices go up, yields go down right. This is the opposite of how my courses on building your wealth work down below, where, as the price goes up, the yield that you get goes up because you get more value over time. As we add content remember, there is a code expiring at the end of the month for that and then we're going to have our finally, our largest price increase.

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It's really cool so check that out, but i, most importantly, just want to say, watch that fed rate monitor because the more we see the potential for a ceiling. Guess what happens the more we get evidence that we're not going to get paul volcker now. I know that my optimism right now might feel misplaced, because the market is like on fire right. I was just adding up i'm like.

Oh, i bought some more shares. I'm liking my q right now right because my quantity of the shares i'm buying is going up and it's great and i just closed another couple properties and i'm just taking the money, i'm just dumping into this market, i'm like yes, this is an opportunity, i'm down To like 1.1 in margin too, which is great because then i think one more deal closes and i'm completely at a margin which i'm super excited about. But anyway, i'm buying and the reason i'm so optimistic about this fed path is because even just this discussion of the market now pricing in a lower chance of that 50 bp in september and the fed talking about not going 50 in september. What this is telling us is we're not looking at a paul volcker if we were looking at a paul, volcker situation where inflation's eight percent they're gon na raise rates to nine percent.

You should be so far away from stocks uh that that i mean there's just like basically they're gon na go to zero, like you're gon na see 90 declines in like everything right uh. Nobody wants a paul, volcker again and i actually think the market has gotten too fearful that we're going to get paul, volcker that inflation's not going to go down. But if i really believe that, like if the wage price spiral from january continued and we kept seeing, inflation continue to go up in addition to core and we didn't actually start seeing a decline in inflation like we're. Seeing now with apparel used cars, computer goods, tvs and so on and so forth, i would not be in this market now.

I know i got in a little bit early, but hey hey, you know what i think this is a phenomenal opportunity and what we're seeing in that fed right rate pricing, which you could just type this into google. If you want to see it yourself, type in uh, investing because the website's, investing.com and then fed rate monitor, and then you can look at the probabilities. It'll tell you like what was the probability of a a larger rate hike in september last week compared to this week, and it's down substantially like the market's really moving on this and that's. Why we're seeing treasury yields move but again, obviously the stock market's moving down? Because of snap and the substantial fear that we now have a much weaker consumer than previously thought, and basically all future guidance is just gon na get screwed so anyway, uh for me, it's an opportunity uh in the short term, though, for any kind of hope.

We could potentially give you it's solely just that hey, you know what, hopefully, hopefully, hopefully, hopefully we stay the course inflation starts going down june july august. We start seeing those reports, obviously a month later, and then we get a fed that says yeah. You know what we're good like. We actually don't have to keep doing 50s and we don't have to volcker.

We don't have to go so substantially above neutral uh, but but but but do still think the housing market is in for a rough ride towards the end of this year. New home sales came out this morning. Disaster like down 17 substantially under expectations, and i'm like yeah, i tweeted on which follow me on twitter. If you don't yet already at real me kevin i'm like yeah.

This is this is the beginning. This is where it starts anyway. I'll come back with another update. Later lauren's getting mad at me, i see her in the mirror over there and i got ta go and see him.