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0:00 Intro
1:35 Real estate cycles
9:16 What kind of real estate should YOU invest in?
10:55 Single family crash?
16:51 Wall Street’s corruption
17:50 Inflation
20:41 How to fight the wealth gap
24:35 The population crisis
27:44 Bitcoin
📝Disclaimer:
This video is not personalized advice for the viewer.

What we really need to think about if we're a real estate investor is what happened 25 to 30 years ago. That means if you owe a million dollars in Mortgage Debt Inflation basically paid 270 grand for you I Mean that's free money if you don't pay the debt yourself. Wow, you got a free ride on that. Maybe some positive cash flow? a ton of tax benefits cuz income property is the most tax favored asset class in America you know Kevin It reminds me of, um, all the corporate Raiders that became sort of famous in the ' 8S What was the big strategy? they Ed the Lbo The Leverage buyout I Think inflation is going to be a theme for quite a while.

Of course there are cycles and everything. There will be bouts of disinflation or even deflation on the way if you're a real estate investor. demographically speaking, you're in good shape. Till about 2045 20148 The media loves to talk about California New York right these up and down places because there's just a lot more to report on.

If it beds it leads. That's the saying in the in the newspaper world, right? Well-known economists and well-known think tanks have just gotten us totally wrong. Welcome back to another episode of The Meat Kevin show we are here with Jason Harpman You have some big things to say about a crash coming in real estate but a specific part of real estate and it's even Beyond just office. So I want to talk to you about this because this is really interesting, especially with what we're looking at.

And then you've also got some interesting insights in Commodities Yeah, so let's get started. Uh, what's going to happen? Are we going into a recession? Do does? Should everybody just sell everything and sit on the sidelines? Where's your head on that? And let's talk about these two insights. Yeah, so quite a quite a few things wrapped up in that question. Kevin And um, you know I Think the thing we have to consider is the when we look at Just Housing specifically.

Um, most will agree we have a housing shortage and uh, you really have to divide up the country or the world really into three types of markets: linear, cyclical and hybrid markets. Cyclical markets would be my home state of California don't live there anymore I Know that's where you are still and uh, uh, that would be mostly a cyclical Market Where yeah, boom and bus Cycles Uh, looking at a a chart over time, it looks like a roller coaster. Glorious highs, ugly lows. uh, but I Prefer those sort of linear, boring markets the the center of the country, the uh, the southeast, right? You know, those kind of markets where there are ups and downs, but they're not as pronounced.

This would be like the Ohio or Carolinas maybe as an example. Yeah, the Carolinas but even even Florida Georgia A little bit too, not as much as it used to be because everything is bubbled up as we know and uh, and with those markets, they're more sustainable because you have better cash flow and you know you can always tell a linear Market versus a cyclical Market by the land value. And so about 20 years ago I started teaching a concept I call packaged Commodities investing. And most people when they buy a property, they think it's one thing.
But it's really two major things. There's the land component and then the Improvement sitting on the land. the house, the apartment building, the office building, the retail Center whatever which is made of Commodities and those packaged or assembled Commodities right? What are they made out of right? Well, they're made out of copper, wire, drywall, glass, steel, lumber, concrete, petroleum products. all of that good stuff and those are relatively stable.

What fluctuates the most is land value Because land. when there's cheap, easy money in a market, land values just get bit up through the roof and it doesn't need to be vacant land. just High Land value markets like California example right? during an easy money cycle. Yeah, okay, right right.

So those get bit up a lot and they're very volatile and I use the example of the last house I lived in in California I Bought it for $815,000 back in like 2004. Um, at the peak it was worth a million3 and it it went up almost $500,000 in less than a year. Oh my Gosh! and I mean that's Insanity right? Oh, that was 05 to 04 to 05. Uh, a little later than that? Yeah, a little later than that.

but that's obviously not sustainable, right? And so when you think about it, which component went up? Was it the land or the Improvement? Well, the Improvement. The house sitting on the land actually did get a little bit more expensive because all those construction materials went up in price, but not five or 500k worth? not that much. so it's mostly in the land. And then when it came back down, which it inevitably unfortunately did right, came back down to earth.

Uh, which what went down, the land value went down because it still cost almost as much to build the house as it did at the peak, right? And so when you look at things like that and you think of, you know I know George has been on your channel and he he likes Jim Rogers a lot. I'm a big Jim Rogers fan too. He's been on my show a few times and uh, he's really interested in Commodities and I think Commodities are one of the few things in the world that really have intrinsic value whereas paper currencies don't have intrinsic value. And so everybody needs these Commodities because they create one of the three major things we all need.

food, clothing, shelter, right? So they're the ingredients for shelter. And so when you invest like that and you invest mostly in the Commodities And less in the land, that's a a really conservative, prudent type of real estate investing. That would be the more linear approach. Like absolutely the linear markets.

And where are your favorite markets for that? Yeah, so you know Tennessee Uh, Florida Georgia Texas. A little bit, but Texas has gotten a little bit expensive, but we've helped hundreds. We really thousands of people over the years buying Texas. Uh, but um, uh, you know Arkansas is quite good too.
Uh, you know there. there's a lot of these like linear markets. Missouri Uh, Kansas. You know these types of markets that just don't get a lot of attention from the media because they're kind of boring, right? In Indiana is another great one, and um, nothing much happens there.

so the media doesn't report on them because they're not Sensational the media loves to talk about California New York right these up and down places because there's just a lot more to report on. Drama? Yeah, drama. yeah. AB political drama or whatever it is, if it bleeds, it leads.

That's the saying in the in the newspaper. How interesting. So this is why you know Kansas or Arkansas or whatever might not be on the news every day, but it's it's San Francisco it's New York City or Miami Interesting. Okay, so uh, so what does that mean? Uh, in ter So that's a good Baseline Where do we sit in the market now though? So we've got 7% on the 30-year mortgage? What's at risk here? Is it the single family? The Multif family? I Mean we know office is in the Poopers But right, Yeah, Office is definitely in the pooper.

That's a good way to say it. Yeah, so you know multif family is pretty overs supplied right now. Oh wow, but that'll recover. You know it's just going to take two to three years to work.

Is that a buy the dip opportunity? or is it a careful weight like it's falling knife? I Don't think it's quite there yet I Think it's still a falling knife obviously? Look, you know I Just want to make the kind of General Disclaimer that lots of people you can make money lots of ways and lots of things. Every deals individual. There is no real estate market. Okay, there's there are individual deals, right? But generally speaking, I think multi Family is.

it's got a little more pain ahead. Uh, because there's a lot of new Supply coming on this year and uh, there are quite a few syndicators that got themselves into trouble syndicating Multif Family and they're going to be. they're already selling. but I think there's going to be more of that.

Oh, even as rates come down, they're just going to flood them out. Yeah, they have to. Yeah, okay, yeah, they're under a lot of of debt pressure because they didn't plan for these higher rates and and they had a lot of short-term debt which has come home to risk like three four, fiveyear kind of debt. Yeah, even shorter.

really. You know I mean I mean a typical strategy in multif family and I've done it myself because I've owned you know, a few big apartment complexes too. And um, you know you. you.

you buy you rehab and you ret tenant the property so as the units go vacant one at a time, you rehab them and then you raise the rents by hopefully 30% and uh, that's a great strategy. It great asmb that is. No. Then you're inou right.
You need to rely on somebody else to be able to get that cheap short-term debt. And yeah, yeah, Ultimately, you know after you get past either the hard money loan or The Fix and Flip loan, the short-term financing, the bridge financing, then you need to go into longer term permanent financing and when that cost of money triples, you're screwed. Oh okay, that's like a big problem. and so you think there are a lot of screwed Sal owners quite a few.

Oh wow, and there are you know there are, uh, smart investors uh, that are, uh, creating rescue funds, right? rescue Capital they call it and they're coming into that market now a little bit. But I think the bigger opportunity is still ahead because I think we're going to see more pain there. Wow, Wow. Okay, so the opportunity for somebody watching? Where is it is? it? is it.

You know the usual like buyer house or like wait and try to buy a fourplex or what do you see? you know? I Just my. My favorite is just the humble single family home. Okay, it's You know it's not that sexy, but those are really the best investments that aren't that sexy, right? And so just good old single family homes in linear markets. you know? Uh, and when I first started helping investors buy Nationwide 20 years ago I Mean you know these houses were 80 $120,000 Now you know we're talking $350,000 Okay for that type of house, but that good uh, starter home.

That entry-level home that has been massively underbuilt for the last 15 years coming out of the Great Recession Uh, there's a giant Gap in the market. a big hole where we have a lot of demand for those properties and very few of them available. So that's another thing that we we need to say. You know you can segment the real estate market a lot of different ways, right? We talked about linear, cyclical and hybrid.

We can talk about different asset classes Apartments Office. You know, retail, Industrial. All of this stuff, right? But also just within residential. single family price ranges, right? Uh, Market Areas right there, you know.

Condo, single family, fourplexes, two duplexes? whatever. right? So there's a lot of different ways to segment things. And uh, the entrylevel single family homes. Entry level.

That's where you want to be. The bread and butter single family homes that make good rental properties. Ah, okay, so something that that'll be easy for you to rent out in the future. Now Is there there a potential uh, uh, crash coming? Then that cyclical crash coming to single family this site? Like are we in that cycle? Now in in the broader single family? Market Um, I don't think so in any major way.

But I'm not saying that with a ton of confidence. Okay, I just want to hear that in the entrylevel single family. Market I'm very confident that we are not looking at a crash yet. I mean barring some Black Swan event World War III breaking out another planemic? Whatever.
right? Yeah. L Inserted on purpose, right? Right? right? Yeah. Hope. Hope the algorithm didn't catch that.

That's all right. So uh, you know that barring one of those Black Swan type events I I Think you know just the Dynamics of we only have a half a million homes for sale in the country. We have about a 140 million housing units in the country. Okay, and Kevin Where so many people have gotten this wrong? So many experts you know have gotten this wrong.

Big Uh, well-known economists and well-known think tanks have just gotten this totally wrong since we saw this massive rate hike. Only about five million properties have single family homes have transacted. Oh, between the beginning of rate hikes and now, yeah, in the last year and a half, which is well below the normal level. Absolutely.

So, at the peak of the market, we have about 6 million properties a year, right? And so last year we had like 3.8 million. Sales are way down. Realtors are starving. They're complaining all the settlement people.

the mortgage people, they're all complaining. Title. Yeah. but there's a difference between sales volume and sales prices.

And the reason is simple basic fundamental law of Economics Supply and demand. Okay, and Supply is very constricted because we have this lock in effect of so many people with really low mortgage rates. the 30e fixed rate. Yeah, 20 25% of the country has a rate at or below 3% and they have 27 to 28 years left.

Yeah, they're not giving that up. That's an asset, right? Yeah, Okay, uh. 65% of the country has a rate at or below 4% for 27 or 28 years left. right? That's an asset.

And if they were to move, literally, renting an apartment would be more expensive. Moving to a cheaper house would be more expensive. So it's like this perver weird situation that has never happened in my multi-decade career. I've never seen this before.

It's an unusual scenario. So there's this talk about oh, you know, and the rates will start coming down. Maybe prices will start going up again in the spring. Is there a risk that, uh, as rates come down, inventory comes up more than buyers come in.

That is a fantastic question and the answer is yes, inventory will increase as rates go down. Oddly because the Delta between current rates that people hold those cheap rates and the new rate gets smaller and then Trad happens right? there's less punishment. Hey, if I've got to, you know if I've got to pay 7% and I've got 3% already? I'm not trading I'm not going to sell right? I'm going to keep my 3% even if I don't like the house right? But if I can get 5% and I've got 3% that Gap is not as big. So then I'll trade.

but so that will create more inventory. but that'll also create more affordability. so Millions more people will be able to afford to buy and that will light the market on fire again. So in a low inventory Market increasing affordability, We know all know what happens cuz we had that dur the Co era right now.
The question is, how much of each do we get I guess Anything Could Happen happens. You know it doesn't happen in a day, right? It happens over a Continuum and so as rates come down, a few people peel off. a little more inventory comes on the market, but a few more buyers can qualify now so that all works right. It's It's not a recipe for disaster.

so so no bake. Housing Lead 2008 again. Uhuh, 2.0 ahead of us. Totally different circumstances and I hate to say.

you know we all know the famous last words of every investor. This Time It's Different right, that's that's not good thinking, but it really is very different. Okay I mean in in leading up, you know I predicted the housing crash in terms of the mortgage meltdown component when I was doing seminars and speaking engagements in 2002 2003 I knew because it was really simple to see that all the people that got these 31 arms or 51 arms they would have adjustments and they would have payment shock. And they did.

And that happened. So I sold my real estate company I had a traditional real estate company in Southern California Coldwell Banker bought it from me. It closed November 11th of 2005. Oh my go and everybody said my timing was perfect.

Yeah because prices started going down right after that slowly. Absolutely right. It didn't really go cookie into like 0708 but at the end of ' 05 that was the peak right? And you know people didn't notice that Kevin at the end of 05 it was the peak and the reason they didn't notice it was the holidays and traditional. You know, owner occupied transactions don't happen that much then.

But by the time we got to Spring of 2006 people started to notice like where's the activity right? It should be really busy right now and it wasn't And so that was the change. Um, but where was I going with that? Um, Anyway, refresh. That's okay. Yeah, so so I I Guess the oh, different circumstances and mortgage meltdown? That's where I was.

So so basically I knew and other people knew too that there would be payment shock and that happened. So the mortgage meltdown was kind of easy to predict because the lending was so loose you you knew what was going on there too. Okay, that was obvious. But what I didn't know is the theme of the movie Margin Call In the big short, ah, all calization I did not know what Wall Street was doing all the all the scam and Corruption going oning the garbage, right? Okay, so that there were really two phases to the Great Recession there was the mortgage meltdown phase which was just loose lending and adjust rate loans, adjusting payment shock, right? But then there was the crookery and Corruption and graft on Wall Street which was selling the same Loan in the same pool 33 times and the loan literally didn't exist.
There was, uh, you know, just massive, uh, underwriting fraud I Mean you know, look at Moody's We all know the story right because we saw the movies or read the book. Yeah, it's it's remarkable. Okay, so so that's not what we're looking ahead towards. Um, are you cons concerned at all about inflation or the Fed or recession in coming? Like what? How are you positioning and how do you see other people? Yeah? I I Think inflation is going to be a theme for quite a while.

Of course there are cycles and everything. There will be bouts of disinflation or even deflation on the way. But look, we have got $34 trillion in debt. We've got.

you know, somewhere between 60 trillion and $220 trillion of unfunded entitlements or promises the government has made in the next 10 15 years that it can't afford to keep. So for reference, the Federal government takes in about $4.7 trillion a year. So how is it ever going to pay back 34 trillion and then keep the promises to pay 60 to 220 trillion? It's impossible. You can't raise taxes enough to solve that problem.

And if you raise the taxes that much, the economic activity will just dissipate, destroy the economy. So you really have to hope that somehow the economy expands faster and the debt becomes less relevant over time. I Suppose Okay, interesting. how is that affecting your investing? Or are you just focusing on single families? I I Think it means inflation.

So you know. I Think single family homes are the best thing because uh, one of the things the hidden wealth creators is the mortgage asset. even if it's not one of those super cheap mortgages. We already talked about principal pay down every month, but you get to pay the debt back in cheaper dollars over time.

The debt is inflated away. Yeah, and so that's really the business plan our government has for its debt. Yeah, why not do the same thing if we ow if we owe a trillion dollars to China and we have 10% inflation either in one year, two years, three years doesn't matter the time, right? But we have 10% inflation. We just got a100 billion discount on the debt, right? So we want as much inflation as possible.

So so really, you're saying Jome Powell is inen incentivized to to run that money printer I I Think the whole system is incentivized to just just inflate away debt and inflate away problems and kick the can down the road. And eventually The Jig will be up. You can't do this forever, but we can do it for probably quite a lot longer than we think. How long I don't know.

100 years? Nobody knows. 10 years. Maybe longer than we can live I don't know, Not 10 years I don't know. Okay, yeah.

okay, so what does this mean for demographics? Uh, well. demap. Yeah, so the wealth. So uh, you know the Calon effect which I'm sure you're familiar with, right? This economist from what 150 years ago talked about how the people closest to the money printer get the richest right? because they get the advantage before the value is inflated away, right? And the rest of us little people you know, we get the advantage much later and we don't get their advantage.
So the wealth Gap is increasing. wealth is definitely concentrating. We've certainly seen that over the past 20 years. Um, I mean one of the things I say on my show always is you must watch old TV shows, watch old movies, read old books, listen to old music because then then you get a reference point and when I say old I just mean like the ' 80s or the 70s? not even that old, right? And and you you just see uh, the depiction of like a rich person in the 70s versus today These are like Mega Rich oligarchs we have now so that wealth Gap is definitely increasing quite a bit and um, uh, you know I think that's going to continue to happen unfortunately I don't think that's good for Society at all, but that's the direction it's going.

So on the ride or you're yeah and the way you can get on the ride and ride on their coattails and game. The system is by getting cheap, fixed rate, long-term debt and letting it get inflated away. Most people with real estate they think, hey, I made money because the property appreciated, but the properties don't usually appreciate that much more than the inflation rate. That's not that significant.

Yeah, maybe what 1% if that. It's a bit of an illusion, right? But they do appreciate hedge inflation, so if you leverage them, then you get a multiplier effect, right? So if you've got 10% down and the property appreciates, say, at 6% a year, then that multiplies to 60% gross return on investment, right? And if inflation is 6% you have outrun inflation by 54% That's a great deal. Fantastic deal. Yeah, that's very interesting.

Then if you're getting tax benefits, yeah, because your debt yeah isn't affected by this because it's not going up because there's inflation, it's actually staying the same. So therefore, like you said, it's easier to pay it back, right? And and the great thing about income property is we don't pay our own debts. The tenants do We Outsource the debt to the tenants. Yeah, it's the greatest deal ever, right? So you basically get in the middle of this awesome transaction, right? Because because you you have inflation induced debt destruction where the inflation is paying the debt for you, give you an example.

Okay, so uh. in one of my presentations, uh, I show an example of how over the last 10 years there's been 26.7% cumulative inflation when inflation was lower before the Co era, right? just up until 20 just comparing like to 2019 or so. Yeah, Yeah, yeah. so uh.

that means if you owe a million dollars in Mortgage Debt Inflation basically paid 270 grand for you. Yeah, I mean that's free money. but if you don't pay the debt yourself, Wow, You got a free ride on that. Maybe some positive of cash flow? A ton of tax benefits because Income Property is the most tax favored asset class in America and it's the most historically proven asset class in the world.
I Believe. Um, happy to debate that point. If someone wants to, Um, and then, uh, you, you've got the leverage. I Mean you've got all these multi-dimensional characteristics? Amazing.

It really is an amazing asset, you know? Kevin It reminds me of um, all the corporate Raiders that became sort of famous in the 80s, right? And what was the big strategy? They use the Lbo The Leverage buyout right? and and The Leverage buyout. Basically, the strategy is you find a company you want to acquire and you know, private Equity firms do this all the time. It's their major strategy. You find a company you want to acquire, you load that company up with as much debt as possible, and then you make the company pay the debt back out of its own cash flow.

Okay, and then you ultimately sell it. Or you split it up into parts and sell the parts right? And so that we're basically doing leverage buyouts with Income property. That's just a great strategy. Yeah, I Love that.

That's fantastic. So what? What about the demographic issue? I You've you've touched on this before. I Mean there's immigration, The birth rates? What? What keeps you up at night? Well, I mean we're going to have a a population bust. Uh, but that's a ways away.

We don't need to worry about it yet, but it's definitely coming. And the the great thing about studying demographics is it's immutable. You just know it's going to happen, right? It's easy to predict with simple math, right? If if someone is you know 30 today, you know they're going to be 31 next year, right? That's without a doubt, that's not debatable. Okay, and um, so so there is definitely a baby bust.

I mean all these factors, Uh, feminism? Uh, you know all of these other factors have gotten us to a point where people just aren't having kids and uh, uh, that's not what we worry about today. What we worry about today with real estate is household formation. Ah That's the more important thing. So which we had in Co but some were saying that might be like faux household formation almost I because people wanted to get away from anybody.

Well, yeah, and the mass migration that? yeah. But what I'm talking about is it's You know, some people worry about what's happening. you know, the last several years, right? What we really need to think about if we're a real estate investor is what happened 25 to 30 years ago. Oh, okay, and that's pretty good for a while.

Okay, so if you're a real estate investor demographically speaking, you're in good shape Till about 2045 2048, you've got a while, so don't worry about it yet. So in other words, when the Millennials are who are not having kids, yeah, start messing up our future economy. Well I Don't want to say messing up, but you know if you don't have kids, you don't have an economy and that's one of the big problems you know I know George was talking on your show about Japan Okay, so Japan has among other problems right? Um, Japan has a big demographic problem and you know they they just don't have children I mean there's all these weird things in Japan uh and I love Japan By the way, I've been there twice. It's just a super civilized country.
Everything's clean, people are so polite. It's a wonderful place. Um, but there's like these weird Trends there there are women that marry themselves. It's kind of like the Dennis Rodman thing.

Okay, right in. and they literally have a wedding with no husband, no groom. Yeah, they hire a photographer, they invite their friends, they have a party, and they have a wedding with no other person. So what's the point? It's just weird.

Look it up. It's just a weird thing. I Don't have a point. but but this is the problem.

When you don't have kids, you can't have an economy without children. You know you're doing your part. So congratulations thank you for doing your part. Wow! Okay, so so buy real estate, buy single family homes, and go have kids.

Yeah, so you know, maybe you'll just tell everybody have more sex. Okay, there you go. Perfect. There you go.

Uh, I'm sure everyone will like that message. but uh, you know there are other assets. Obviously there are precious metals. Um, the problem is you can't.

You can't leverage them very well. You can't rent them out. I'm going to say Bitcoin next that's coming. So Bitcoin obviously the ETF was just approved.

Um, you know I I don't have like a ton of confidence in Bitcoin but I hope I'm wrong I want to be wrong about this because I would love nothing more than to see a decentralized currency of the people take over the world. I would love that. The reason: I don't have a lot of confidence though and I do own some and I buy it every week a little bit I Just dollar cost Average Okay, but um, you know the two most powerful entities the human race has ever known are governments and central banks. and Bitcoin threading both their their main product is their fiat currency.

Yeah, of course. I mean that's the product of any government, Is its currency? Okay, and they're not going to just stand by and let that be displaced. Of course. I mean they have standing armies.

Okay, Bitcoin does not have a standing army and and so I I Just think there's going to be a lot of headwinds. Wow, that's but I Hope Bitcoin wins. Yeah, Yeah, okay, but I wouldn't put all my eggs in that basket. I'll tell you 10% I don't 5 two one dep how much money you have I Guess it's different.
You know? if you have billions of dollars, you can put a bigger share in there because it won't affect your lifestyle if you lose it. All right? Okay, yeah, and the other threat? the other big threat I Think to Bitcoin and by the way I want to separate Bitcoin from every other cryptocurrency? It's in a class by itself. Ah, okay, even versus Ethereum. Let's say oh yeah, Ethereum is a centralized.

That's not Bitcoin because of the staking pools where so much is in one. Okay, nothing is Bitcoin okay except Bitcoin right and cry. Other cryptocurrencies. You know you can speculate with them and make money I have a lot of friends who've made a ton of money I Mean you know with that stuff.

but um, uh, but Bitcoin's in a class by itself. That is the leading thing. Um, but the other big threat to it is coming around the corner and it's Quantum Computing Oh wow. These Ultra Mega powerful computers that we can't even comprehend really are right around the corner.

And you know they could crack the blockchain. They could crack the code. Uh, I'm no expert in that, but it I Think that is a legitimate to update some of the cryptography a little bit before quantum computers take over. Yeah, and yeah, that that would scare me.

Okay, okay, interesting, but that wouldn't be your main concern if as an investor is the cryptography, it would be more government. Yeah, Governments and central banks. I Know they will government and central banks with quantum computers. Well, that's even worse.

Yeah well. or with laws and armies and police for you know I mean I mean look like like with the with the uh, cryptocurrency and the Bitcoin argument right they say, well, they can't stop it. Are you sure about that I mean look, you know they they can just make it illegal and and then you say okay, look well you know cocaine is illegal. Yeah, yeah, yeah, but it still exists, People still trade it.

It's out there. It's just not mainstream. Okay, it's a commodity, it's traded I mean but now wouldn't you say it's mainstream because of the ETFs Um yes. and that is good because now they have Wall Street on their side.

or Bitcoin has Wall Street on its side. So that will make it harder for the governments and central banks to attack it because now it's sort of enshrined in our system. so that bodess well for Bitcoin. So okay, maybe buy a little more if you're into it.

Yeah, anything else? um yeah, I don't know. Uh, just I I Really want to leave people with the idea of of the mortgage being an asset? Oh yeah, and uh, even if it's I Mean ideally the mortgage you have on all your properties is at a negative interest rate. Meaning the rate of the mortgage is below the rate of official inflation and below the rate of real inflation. And always remember too that depending on your tax bracket, you know, maybe 40% of that mortgage interest is deductible.
So if your mortgage is, uh, you know, 4% really, your real interest rate is only like 2.2% Okay, uh, so when you compare that to official inflation rate which is understated I'm sure you agree with that, uh, or unofficial real inflation rate, you know you're definitely at a negative interest rate, right? Uh, so so that's a huge asset. and then the debt is being inflated away. And that happens really in two two parts. The payment every month gets less and less burdensome, with the inflation inflating the debt away.

But also the principal balance of the mortgage gets less and less burdensome because inflation is basically paying it off for you. That's incredible. Yeah, it really is an incredible thing. Thank you so much! How can people follow you? Um, my website is Jason Hartman.com and I'm on YouTube and podcast Creating Wealth podcast as well Creating Wealth podcast Thank you so much! Thanks! Kevin Even though I'm a licensed financial adviser, licensed real estate broker, and becoming a stock broker, this video is neither personalized Financial nor real estate advice for you.

It is not tax, legal, or otherwise personalized advice tailored to you. This video provides generalized perspective, information and commentary. Any third party content I Show should not be deemed endorsed by me. This video is not and shall never be deemed reasonably sufficient information for the purposes of evaluating a security or investment decision, any links or promoted products or either paid affiliations or products or service we may benefit from.

I Also personally operate an actively managed ETF and hold long positions in various Securities mentioned including potential short positions. However, I have no relationship to any issuers nor Am I presently acting as a market maker.

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25 thoughts on “The coming real estate demo crisis jason hartman”
  1. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars @jammahamma3058 says:

    I have seen so many affordable houses bought by flippers and in 2 months try to sell the same house for double what they paid after doing very little changes. Most people cannot afford a $300-$400,000 home. Investors are killing the affordable market.

  2. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars @jammahamma3058 says:

    There is NOT a housing shortage. There is an UNAFFORDABLE housing shortage

  3. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars @bxu789 says:

    Brag about insights , investment knowledge, but the only investment is on single family houses. Holly shit. Do something useful. This society has two many rats

  4. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars @ryanraines1469 says:

    Summer speedy recovery 💪🏾

  5. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars @GraceyGarret says:

    Excellent discussion, from two smart guys! Jason Hartman is an absolute legend

  6. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars @lisatomita5631 says:

    Great content!

  7. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars @gustavodiaz4689 says:

    Dude Florida is tanking no idea WTF is this clown talking about? Inventory just jumped well over 25 percent in 2 months

  8. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars @AmandaGuglionni says:

    He’s a wonderful and well articulated speaker 🎉

  9. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars @SmartMoney-Crypto says:

    They could just ban it but it would be banned for Americans not the world 🤣 = even more demand globally

  10. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars @Fran-yv9th says:

    Everyone said if you cannot afford kids don’t have them so I guess millennials took that advice 😂

  11. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars @BrittneyRoberts says:

    Jason does it again, great info!

  12. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars @JasonHartmanRealEstate says:

    Good conversation! 💯✅

  13. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars @CryptoQuest says:

    Work hard, buy houses, have kids. Love it! Wish Kevin had a little more push back on some of Jason's points that were a bit arbitrary and generalized. For example when Jason says the US can continue kicking the can down the road on our enormous debt for "alot longer than we think" Kevin pushes back asking "how long?" but then Jason says he doesn't know. Need to get him to explain himself, why does he think that. Open ended questions Kevin otherwise they'll be able to weasel out of it when pressed.

  14. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars @uniqu3xperience965 says:

    He talks about this because they can't afford to buy in new york anymore. So the cheap places in the middle of nowhere where the wind turns around. Is the only place investors are kinda investing and buying while looking away in discuss. So they will create lakes and ponds to at least see a water view. Lol what a joke. My investment house is 3 blocked from the ocean. And I have had 2 families there and when the original family left I had it rented 5 hours later. Location my friends. These investors will crush and burn when they can't rent in Arkansas lol

  15. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars @DulacDental says:

    I’ve been asking for this for years glad you guys made it happen.

  16. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars @KennedyNathann says:

    Retirees who struggle to meet their basic needs are the ones who could not accumulate enough money during their active years to meet their needs.
    Retirement choices determine a lot of things. My parents both spent same number of years in the civil service, but my mom was investing through a wealth manager, and my dad through the 401k.

  17. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars @maxreviews3418 says:

    Who do you look up to Kevin?

  18. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars @slycooper7541 says:

    This guy hit the nail right in the head investors buy single family homes to rent and steal the opportunity from a first time buyer to buy an entry level home this is why the wealth gap will continue to increase how will someone from a lower status ever be able to buy their first home if investors continue to buy those entry level homes to rent

  19. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars @MysterSer333 says:

    Lol he sounds like Jordan Peterson😂

  20. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars @bidbuytom says:

    Wish i could afford a decent home

  21. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars @Mrhappy555 says:

    Congress pass laws against investors buying up single family homes and save America
    ❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤. Save young families from the greedy lazy who what to use banks money to get rich instead of working a job like everyone else

  22. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars @MickB52s says:

    the strong dollar will create a worldwide need for US dollars……….. and the Feds will print money in bonds to create this increase in profits from us equity dollar pricing powers!!!

    feed back, please!

  23. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars @michaellightbown9492 says:

    Well, a big reason millennials arent having kids is because they can never afford a house largely because of housing investors.

  24. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars @brandondiaz6685 says:

    Jason Hartman is highly recommended to follow. He puts his words together so well to understand.

  25. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars @danielstevens6864 says:

    Got 4 kids can't afford anymore did my part lol

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