Hey guys, it's sasha, oh my god. The next few months are going to be insane for tesla shareholders. There is a lot going on with tesla stock at the moment and in this video i will tell you a few different big things that are happening. This side of christmas, the truth is that each one of these things is a really big deal, but all of these are happening in a short period of time.

At the same time could be a real game. Changer remember this is all just my personal opinion. I do not own a crystal ball and i can't provide financial advice to you, but i am a holder of a whole load of tesla shares and i'm just here sharing my views in this video. I will talk about five major catalysts for tesla over the next three to four months, and i am not even going to talk about energy business that tesla is doing really well and the booming expansion into texas and all of that.

Those are also going to be really big for tesla, but will probably take a little longer to show up on the p l anyway. Let's start with the news that has just now come through official numbers published by the china passenger car association have revealed the tesla shanghai factory, managed to sell 44 264 cars in august. That is a huge number. 12 885 were sold in china and the other 31 379 were exported mostly apparently to europe.

In the last quarterly report, tesla said that the shanghai factory has now got a capacity of over 450 000 cars notice that greater than sign that has been added there. It wasn't there in the previous version of exactly the same table, but this 44 000 number that they just published is incredible, because that is a run rate of 531 000 cars per year, which is definitely over 450 000 by some margin, and that is also with The china factory being shut down for apparently about four days during the month of august, which means that the model 3 and the model y production lines were running at an average rate of over 800 cars per day. Rumors are circulating that the production actually ramped up significantly towards the end of the month. So, although 800 was the average, the lines are apparently now operating at about a thousand cars per line per day, because there is a two separate production lines and if that is true, then even accounting for upgrades and downtime, that could mean september could hit 50 000 Cars or more in shanghai, which would mean a q3 total of 127 000 cars, or even greater just for that factory alone and with fremont producing cars at a slightly faster rate.

That could mean a total of 240 or even 250 000 cars in q3, which is a run rate of a million per year, and that's double what tesla made in 2020 and that's before the two huge new gigafactories are going to come online. I'm going to get to those in just a second now before i do. Here's a second point that i think a lot of people are missing or misunderstanding. Tesla is showing that they are ruthless when it comes to optimizing revenue and profits.

A lot of analysts picked up on this fact that i just mentioned that the majority of the cars made in china were exported rather than sold in china, and people said that this is bad news. Tesla's growth in china has slowed, competitors are taking over. This is the end of the story, um. All of that kind of rubbish, so tesla is having to ship cars abroad because nobody in china wants to apparently buy them, but the simple fact is: i don't think this is accurate.

I am being politically correct here. Tesla is selling every car it makes there is virtually no unsold inventory. There are no cars hanging about for more than a few days anywhere. A model y is fast becoming the most popular car in the tesla lineup, and may well soon become the most popular car.

In any lineup, so here's how much of tesla model why cost in europe the prices do vary a little bit by country, but we're talking about 65 000 euros for the long range car and 71 000 euros for the performance one in the netherlands. As an example, now the long-range model is the one that they are currently making and selling with a performance model coming in a few months, so that long-range model costs 65 000 euros and 12 300 out of that is the dutch vat tax. So the car company tesla makes about 52 700 euros in revenue per one of those sold. If you take that tax away.

Now, let's look at that same car being sold in china in china. They have three models: they have an entry-level one and they don't sell in europe as well, but the long-range version yeah that that does apparently say long-range is 347 900 chinese yuan, which is about forty five thousand five hundred euros at the moment, and they also have An exception for vat payments on tesla car, so there's nothing to take off so tesla is making these model wise. They roll off the production line and tesla has demand virtually in every single corner of the world that is far exceeding the current supply, so they could sell them equally in europe or in china, and so, if you go and sell that model y in china for 45, 500 euros: you get to earn 45 500 euros, but you could put it on a ship to europe and instead sell that same car for 52 700 euros instead. The same car, that is a 30 percent difference and the current exchange rates between the dollar, yuan and euros, are making that particularly good right now think about why they're selling so many over there.

So when the q3 and q4 numbers come out - and we see what this means for the revenue and the gross margin numbers don't be surprised. This is why it's happening. I'm guessing tesla would happily sell 100 of their shanghai made cars in europe if it could. But i am also presuming there is some element of politics and tactics involved to ensure that the chinese authorities are happy that tesla is appropriately serving the domestic market as well, but anyway, let's move on.

There is a lot more tomorrow on the 10th of september. Tesla is planning to release version 10 of their full self-driving software, and this is a big one. According to tesla, this will be a massive step up from what is already by far the industry leading proposition with version 9.2 and the rumor mill, fueled by elon's, cryptic and sometimes not so cryptic tweets, saying that two to four weeks after that fsd version 10 releases. It will become publicly available to anyone who wants to buy it, and if that does happen, that is a huge step forward for tesla commercially, because full self-driving software could become a massive additional revenue source for tesla to establish them as a massive leader in the ev Development space even beyond where they are today, which could be really really powerful, not just commercially but also in establishing and securing that customer base.

But but there are a lot of question marks: will fsd actually be offered to the public in the next few weeks, because elon is known for promising things that are going to be happening in two weeks and then those things not happening for a few years? This has happened multiple times before, so let's wait and see. If this actually happens and will it be limited to just california or just the united states or globally, and if not, then, when will these other regions come online? Will that happen at any point in the near future? That will be for us to find out, and the big question of course remains as to how good is this fsd actually going to be, and how quickly can a ramp up to become really really good and don't forget? All of this is happening while the nitzer in the us is investigating tesla's autopilot, so there's a lot of hurdles to overcome, but if elon does stick to his plan, this could be the next big step towards fsd becoming a huge software as a service business and That could earn significant money now next up here is a photo of what giga texas looked like when the q2 results were announced at the end of july. That's just over a month ago, and here is what gigatexas looks like now. This pace is insane tesla's been installing all of those glass panels over the last few weeks, and this is looking almost ready and reports are saying that the production line is now producing pre-production model wise.

As of two weeks ago now, the shanghai factory began making pre-production cars about four months before deliveries of the real ones started. So there is every chance that the actual production will start in november with december deliveries, which should mean that the fact will be fully operational through q1. Berlin is also looking on schedule to start making cars this year, although there's not quite as good a amount. An amount of information and the german government has just approved literally in the last couple days, 1.1 billion euros worth of support to build out their production capacity.

Um at that factory, which is huge, that is an insane amount of money. Now elon has said that it takes a year for a factory to actually begin production at full speed and as shanghai is showing. The production curve may well be growing for quite a long way beyond that, as well over the few years, but even if they are running at a fraction of their potential capacity, opening two huge new gigafactories, both of them coming online around about christmas, could have an Enormous effect here is a chart of tesla's share price over the last five years this year in december 2019, is when the shanghai factory started. Producing cars, see what happened afterwards.

Now everyone knew that the factory was being built and everyone knew how many cars it could. Theoretically make, but there was a lot of people speculating that it was never actually gon na happen. You know they weren't ever gon na be able to ramp it up, and then they did and then that chart happened, but for some reason people don't like pricing growth. Even when they are aware that that growth is coming when all the data is showing them that it is incoming for some reason, i don't like pricing it in the way that maybe i would uh to the same degree.

So anyway, you can see where i'm going with this. I think the market is generally significantly underestimating the impact of these two new giga factories opening and, let's move on to the next really big trigger the us government is currently discussing a bill to change the way that ev credits in the u.s work teslas sold in The us at the moment are not eligible for ev credits, because tesla has already sold too many cars. This is the ridiculous situation that we're in, but despite this tesla is still outselling, all the other electric car manufacturers by a country mile, and because none of the competition seem to be capable of producing good electric cars. The us government isn't a bit of a pickle.

They have made a big, very public commitment to moving towards more sustainable energy, towards reducing the cupboard footprint and towards electric cars, but biden also hates tesla, because tesla doesn't have unions in their factories. They didn't bother inviting tesla to a white house meeting about you, know: electric vehicles, the car company, that is the leader in electric vehicles, wasn't invited, despite everyone else being there, and also, but in the last few days, gave a speech about how important unions are. I'm sure those two are completely coincidental, but something has got to give so to deliver on their promise. They're going to have to do something and the us government is apparently looking to pass a bill in the next month or two that will give buyers of electric cars a tax credit of seven and a half thousand dollars.

And then there's going to be a further. Two and a half thousand dollars for cars made in the us and another two and a half thousand dollars for cars made in factories with worker unions. You guessed it and tesla does make their cars in the us with, although they don't have the union. So that means that the fremont and the texas texas factory cars will be eligible for a 10 000 tax discount for u.s customers buying one of those cards.

If the bill passes, that is one heck of an incentive and because the ford marquis, which is the kind of closest competitor i guess, is made in mexico, it means the tax incentive will, in total, be the same for both and with that 10 000 discount. The model 3 and model y cars could become seriously appealing to the mass market. The price will become very similar to regular ice vehicles before accounting for the benefits of ongoing costs and not having to pay for gas. So there you have it.

Tesla's share price has already gone up over the last few weeks, but it is still quite a long way below the 900 range that it was testing earlier this year and if, like me, you have a target price that has a substantial upside. The next few months. Could have some really big catalysts that could make that share price move. So, let's see what happens if you enjoyed this video, please don't forget to smash the like button for the youtube algorithm.

Thank you so much for watching. I really appreciate it and, as always i'll see you guys later, you.