What's going on guys welcome back to the channel, appreciate you guys tuning in sorry, i've been uploading a couple days. I'm gon na try to get back to being a little more consistent on that. It's been uh been some crazy, crazy weeks to a crazy year. For me, but i figured we'd start here with this lg vn stock.

So this is a stock that you know popped up. Pre-Marketed a day had some news it was running so may have caught some of your guys's attention. Maybe not, but i figure we talk about this little draw up that i did so. You will see here, flag pattern, which i spelt incorrectly with the room to next statistics level.

So you can see we have a flag pattern right there and it breaks out, and then we kind of get like this flag pattern wedge here that doesn't break out, and so my rationale for that and many times you will see that happen is you will get Sort of a flag pattern that doesn't work, maybe one that does work and for me most often times the one that works is the one or the pattern that occurs. That still has some room up to the next probability level. All right. This is, if you're using statistics that is all right and the one that usually struggles and it can work, but a lot of times it will struggle or it fails, as you saw here, is usually going to be the one that starts taking place at a probability Level.

Okay, so if we kind of zoom out of this picture, maybe a little more, we go like this. You can see we're running up, running up running up and then we kind of pause, flag break squeeze to the next statistical level. Then we flag, because in pause because we're on a true resistance - and that is the one that he ultimately fails and a lot of times it's going to be. Maybe newer market participants newer traders to the market, who obviously are just getting their feet wet.

They haven't been doing this for as long that will find themselves trading this one as opposed to this one, and that may not always be the case, but the bottom line is if you were to draw a pattern or look for a pattern. This one here is more recognizable than this one to the human eye, and most new traders are taught to look for patterns. So it's not! That patterns don't work, it's not that they don't play out and have good moves. That's not necessarily what i'm getting at.

But what i'm getting at is psychologically what you've been taught. Many especially newer traders is patterns and you've, read books, you've, seen videos, etc, etc. So what you've been taught are these patterns and that's a visual representation right patterns are seen by the eye. Okay, that's a visual thing that you're looking for so visually.

This may not be as easy to recognize as a flag pattern as say this, because in the books you're always going to get this perfect. Looking picture okay, and so when you see something that looks like what you've been taught, you are going to be more prone to taking activity in that area per se. So i'm getting at is that this is visually, probably harder to see that it's a flag or believe that it's a flag, as opposed to say that one all right so kind of short little little mini lesson there for you guys um. So now that we're on this lg vn has got some news: it's been a former runner.

It's actually kind of strong still so arguably might be something to keep an eye on for today, um, but going forward. In the event, this is going to work. Well, it's got to get back above this 941 level and start sustaining over that, and it's actually very probable that some people got short off. The statistical mean here and i'll go back a little further, so you can kind of get a better better visual of what we're talking about so through the 940 can lead to a squeeze.

So if you see this video and it hasn't already broken out - or it ends up breaking out later in the day so on and so forth, if this is going to continue its momentum, obviously through these highs is going to lead to another push. But the reason it leads to another push is because this is a statistical probability area that has had resistance, so the reason we got resistance is because of the probability level. Hence why, whenever you get high a day breaks - or you get a breakup of the previous resistance you break out, but knowing why the resistance has become a thing or knowing why the stock actually stops where it stops, is how you truly start to understand, engage the Market better, so we have the statistical mean here. That's why we stopped here.

That's why we pulled back here. This could very well be an area that people are shorting so therefore crossing through can lead to another pop all right. So, in the event that all ends up happening, your next level up is 10 28., so on a squeeze, push through you'd be looking somewhere up to there. Now it doesn't have to get there right.

Markets can do whatever they want, but the concept is if we do well and we hold and we break and the momentum is strong and we continue to push and buyers are there. The market will most likely push up towards 10 28, very close slightly over, but into that zone right and then, if you were to take that one out and the momentum was just nuts, then you'd be going up towards 11.73. Now we're going to take a step back and look at what this chart looks like on a 180-day four-hour time frame all right, so you look at the 180-day four-hour time frame. You will see that this was a big runner in the past and then we faded all the way down, and then we got to the negative one weekly, which is a support.

Okay, let me zoom in a bit more. So then we go through the spike right. So that's the first, so this is uh. This is another lesson right.

Here's your first big spike up! You can see it stops at 1173, so it hit resistance. There pulls back et cetera, et cetera right. So whenever you get a really big spike in a penny stock per se, and then it pulls all the way back down pretty much to where the spike started right about there, that's usually a good dip buy location. I could show you a couple more of those examples, but that's a very common pattern that a lot of traders and we use, and so, if you're newer, it's pretty much look for a big spike.

You know, eventually it's probably going to fade back down and when it gets close to where the spike starts just start. Adding some dips and you'll probably get a a pop within the next couple days and you want to sell into those pops and take your profits. So, for example, just this bounce, if you literally caught the low of it and sold the high of it, which it's not the easiest to do, but that right there was a 40 game right. So that's a common pattern.

You can look for all right now when we really start to look into this. You will see that we do big spike, pull down bottom bounce first trade. Then it pulls back and kind of. Does this dip, slash, flag, setup squeezes up and where's it go to? Next probability up, so what i just showed you here, flag pop squeeze up next probability, is the same exact thing that i showed you here, but the previous one is a bigger scale.

So when i showed you this little flag on a one minute chart set up squeezing to the next probability, this concept, there is the same thing as the larger concept there. So that's another topic of discussion, which is that the market is fractal, which means that, generally speaking, it's the same recurring pattern on all time frames looks a little different but a flag pattern breakout on a bigger scale. There's going to be a flag pattern, breakout on a smaller scale, so on and so forth. So the market is fractal.

It's a repeating pattern. If you look at a snowflake with a microscope and you keep zooming in and zooming in and zooming in, you'll see the same snowflake pattern reoccurring, but to the human eye. You can only see a snowflake pattern when you're looking at one, but you need a microscope to go and further the snowflake to keep seeing the fractal repeating same occurring pattern, all right, which would be same here right. So from this view, we have one kind of flag pattern: break up, go okay, then, when we go to the one minute get more fractal, so this is taking the microscope zooming into the snowflake, and you have another flag pattern break up to the same probability level.

So that is called fractal all right, so now we're going to jump into the market uh get rocking and rolling on this um. I haven't really been following the market extremely close. The past couple days per se um, but we're going to start here in the long term, chart uh. So the market has done a mean reversion which, if we go to twitter, i would i will find that post for you it's somewhere in the mass of posts that i do, but i'm pretty sure i posted it here.

Let's see somewhere. Oh you, oh thank gosh. I'm tough wait is that it? No that's not it, but i'll find it. I will find it um.

I know i'm getting close, no, i'm getting close people, or maybe i'm not, and i'm just thinking i did. Are we picking up yeah? Okay, perfect, all right, uh! Wait is that bitcoin? No, that should be the market. Oh, that's, a nasdaq, okay, so white line is a mean or average oversold bottom bounce back to the mean. So in this picture you can see i'm pointing to the mean which basically is just saying that would be the mean reversion, it's very common to get a mean reversion.

Okay. So now, if we're to go back and we look at the market, you can see the spy is at the white line. So that's a mean reversion. We have reverted back to the statistical average.

If we look at the nasdaq, the nasdaq is actually slightly below, but very close to and probably going to try to get there too. So this would be a mean reversion. So when we zoom back and look at the charts, you will see that it's common for stocks to go above the mean back to the mean above the mean back to the mean below the mean back to the mean above the mean back to the mean and The concept is: is that the market, whether you're looking at stocks indexes, doesn't matter markets are generally going to be fluctuating up and down back and forth around and to and from the mean, and you may be asking well like. Why does that happen? Well, here's the deal all right, you can view or think of the mean, which is the white line as like the fair value price based on all the prices that were bought and all the prices that were sold now, if the market just steadily stayed directly at The mean like this, then no one would really make that much money right because there's not a whole lot of price fluctuation.

So when you think about the market, it runs on fear for f and greed for g and e for a motion which is one of the. You know big factors as to why you get wild swings up and down, but the bigger factor as to why you get these big swings up and down is because there are powers that be that are stronger than you and me that control the market and push Things up down and all around causing price fluctuation, because without a lot of up down up down up down up down up down up down, there's no big price swing in price fluctuation. So if we lived in a market environment that just steadily traded on the mean, then nobody would really make all that much money in terms of a trading perspective, because things need to go on sale and then they have to get over bought or had. They have to go to a really high selling price.

It makes sense to profit on things need to go on sale, then get overbought to sell on sale on sale back to the mean okay. So if you've ever read a book from like warren buffett, they will say that when prices go on sale, you need to buy so a simple way to visualize that something is on sale. Is that it's below the statistical mean or the average right? So you could almost think of this, which isn't totally true like this is the average home price. Okay, 2008 depressed market homes are on sale, gobble them up now.

We've reverted back to the average home um home price. If you may no longer on sale, but things are kind of stabilized all right and then you could see like oh housing markets on fire yeah. I'm going to start selling my house because i noticed a little bit of inflated market and then you know two three years later, you're back at the mean things have cooled off again and that is pretty much the concept there all right. So now, when we start thinking about the way that this market is set up, um we're gon na just kind of work on this chart here.

Um, so market has gone from oversold oversold. Now we're back at the mean so you're not on sale anymore. Markets are not on sale if you start taking ownership on the s p, 500 or the nasdaq right now, you're taking ownership at fair value price. There is really no sale price you're pretty much getting a fair value deal right now.

Does that mean it cannot go lower? No does it mean it cannot go higher, no okay, you're, getting fair value based on the last year's pricing of the auction market. You know right now. If you buy a house you're buying an inflated housing price because the housing market has been inflated, so this is a yearly scale, most traders, most investors. Most banks are looking back yearly scales in terms of trading market fluctuation, all right so on the year.

If you buy the market now you're buying at a fair value price you're not getting a deal and you're not buying two over bought okay. So as it stands many times, i will look for a pullback in this area. Now that the market has hit the mean um level generally, this is areas where we look for some pullbacks. Now it gets a little finicky because um you're not going based off of like a probability pers you are but you're not and what i mean by that is when the market was down here in that moment in time the probabilities were high for a bounce when The market was down here.

The probabilities were high for a bounce when the market was here. Probabilities are high for a bounce right, because this is you know a 99 probability right, but now, when you're here you're at the zero line, so you're not really at a low bounce price and you're, not really at a high probability selling price, which i could give You an example of you're at the zero line, so you're back to the mean you're back to fair value. So, unless participants in the market believe that this fair value price is meant to be sold, wait, i said that bad so now, they're at the fair value price. If the fair value price to participants is high, then we'll probably pull, but if the fair value price is in in short good, then we could stabilize here and maybe even move higher.

But let me just kind of go back and give you a couple examples. So you can get what i'm putting down so right. You could think about um. The mean you know so like here is a better example right when we're down trending, oh so dang it i'm trying hard here guys.

I apologize. I love you guys. I love this stuff. I always try to put in kind of my a game, best effort and helping you guys, so you can think of it like here right, we kind of broke down or actually we come to the meet and bounce a bit and then we go lower.

And then this is a lower high, so we reject and go down right. You can even see here when we're trailing up two, we kind of hesitated there pulled back a little bit and then went and that's what i mean is when you're at the zero line. You could get kind of these just short stubby pull backs short stubby pull backs and then go. Sometimes they can be a little bit bigger.

So that's the thing is trading around the zero line can get a little a little challenging, depending on how you're doing it, because it's not like this, where the probability is high for a bounce, you're kind of like well, maybe we pull back, maybe we sustain you're At the zero line or at fair value, so it's not like a you know, a no-brainer by the dip kind of situation it's like. Well, maybe we go up. Maybe we go down, so this is where things can get a little funky all right. So my best recommendation for today um is sorry going back to the spy if this would ever work there.

It goes sorry if the video is a little long today. So when you look at the spot, you can see right. We went to the zero line and we're kind of getting a little funky we're pulling back sure, but in short, you're looking for stabilization or you're looking for acceptance to continue long above 459.97, all right. So when we go and look at say we'll do like a 10 day 10 minute.

That would be a good view all right. So we look at the 10 day 10 minute, we'll have a couple more lines, but you can expect that right now, we're in a you know on this view, we're in a short term downtrend, as in we went up, could not hold above broke down, remain down. Pushed back two and went lower all right, so you know that we're down trending off the zero line and until we successfully cross back and above and sustain you're, not going to see that continued momentum. And then, in the event we did get back up and above and we did sustain and we went, then you would be targeting the market up to the nasdaq's statistical mean, which is going to be priced at 376 to 374..

So spy gains control and we push we're going to be taking the nasdaq to about there. Okay and that's pretty much that now mark it down continuing down the way. I see it that's kind of interesting all right so yeah, so this is this is what i'll say is if we do get some big bearish poll, whether it be through today into uh tomorrow. Excuse me tomorrow, you can expect 453 pretty much yeah, because the market broke out here.

You can see we kind of ripped up. We never retested that. So that's a breakout and it has not retested markets like to retest. So, in the event we start to take out these lows here: you're gon na go here all right, probably, and the reason that this low is set in here is not because this was support, or this was support.

It's because if you look over here, the nasdaq bounced here, because it had statistical support, so that's why the spy did that okay and then, as the market rolled over on the nasdaq. It found support here on its statistical support. So that is again why the spy did that, so the whole reason that the spy is holding here or has held here is because the uh, the nasdaq, has statistical support there. So, the concept being, if you take out these statistical support levels on the nasdaq, you don't have statistical support until you go to this level on the spine or this level here on the nasdaq, okay, so 360, 84 453's next level down as long as nasdaq goes And breaks below 365 to 364 zone, okay and uh, that's about as simple, probably about as best i can do for now until i uh take the time to get caught up on a bunch of market maker, gamma hedging and dealing, which will be the next thing That i do and and once i learn that i can be very sure - that youtube is going to really want to shut me down at that point.

So that's how the market can play. That's what it is. No, if ands or bots, that's it. So that being said, appreciate you guys tune in and i will catch you on the next video everybody take care.