Greetings and welcome back to another market, open, live stream, so just had a big discussion in the uh course. Member live stream about uh about some of the most important parts of fundamental analysis, and we won't go into it here. But let's just say, usually the people who comment this is the conclusion i'm gon na say we came to. Maybe it was just me.

I don't know. Oh and somebody wanted to know the short interest of bkkt i'll. Look at that really quick, but anyway uh generally the people who say this is just food generally. The conclusion we've come to uh is that they don't know the first thing about fundamental analysis.

Anyway, short interest on bkkt is 31.3 wow uh, but anyway welcome back to this wild stock market. Ride that we're on we're in this weird place, where we're not getting a strong kind of rally, we're getting a lot of weak weenie baby crap a lot of uh. A lot of nonsense - probably a lot has to i mean heavily - do with omicron. Sadly, as much as we think that's a nothing burger markets are still going to react fearfully to it.

For the time being, we do have a green market though, but there's still individual stocks that are getting beat and a lot of the individual stocks that are green, not like that crazily green. So you know dow sitting at 0.58 s p at .77, nasdaq at .84. Uh russell at 0.42, okay cool, better than the pain we saw yesterday still nicely under 1.5 on the 10-year, which uh is again reiterating lower long-term inflation expectations. If we jump into the two-year we're also seeing the two-year uh still at 0.67, i mean this is kind of where we've been we've been bobbing up and down a little bit here.

If anything, we picked up a little bit in the last couple days, but we've we've been pretty consistent here. So uh we'll see what happens here with the two-year. But what folks are worried about is the flattening of the yield curve and uh, and so we'll keep an eye for that, because you don't you don't want to head towards recession, either start heading towards recession. We get here.

You can see the chart a lot easier. 10 2 yield curve same lowest fret there you go the 10 year yield minus the two year, uh and and when this starts getting flat, when people say curve, it's just a fancy way of saying line, chart and and see how this has been flattening. Flattening is a way of saying it's going down. Uh like when it sits over here, like it did in 2019.

People have this crazy fear that anytime, the yield curve inverts like it did right here in about the summer of 2019 that there might be a recession. A year or so later, which recessions on these charts are defined by big blocks of gray, which is also kind of a freaky omen that we had a recession within like nine months after that inversion of the yield curve uh, but anyway uh. You know. Obviously, that was kovid, which is like how how could the market predict that uh? You know it obviously doesn't it's more of a coincidence, but it's still very interesting, but anyway anytime we see this kind of rotation uh down or this flattening people get a little nervous, and so it's the difference between the two that matters uh and so we'll keep An eye on these two right now with with the two-year stable uh, you know and uh the 10 somewhat stable, maybe we'll just kind of sit at this floor.

If anything, you know you've kind of got this floor on on the uh. Here, let's see yeah look at this. Oh, how interesting look at this folks isn't this something i just noticed this. This is very interesting.

Look at this see this right here. You actually have a floor of the 10-year yield curve. That's been here for about three weeks and uh, or the the 10-2 yield curve it's at about 0.75.78, which is really interesting, because if you look at a lot of stocks, a lot of the stocks that we keep referring to is kind of having hit a bottom Hit their bottoms around a similar period of time, look at that december 3rd to now rough bottom on beyond. Let's do docusign for gigs! So docusign look at this similar similarity here, the third to now you're at roughly those bottoms how interesting it's almost like the stocks and the bottom we're seeing here is aligning with the bottom we're seeing on a lot of different stocks.

That's really cool uh! Oh, i like that. That's awesome something to pay attention to uh, yeah, even uh and faces said a little bit more it. It took a while to get to its bottom and face took a little longer, but its bottom seems to be there at that 175 level, which we've got a nice little support line for right now, uh, oh, i don't think we did a thumbnail for this. Did we probably not uh? Let me make a thumbnail really quick.

I hate it when i forget to make the thumbnail, although does anybody actually care here? Let's, let's do a level 99 fishing thumbnail here? Oh that one looks pretty goofy and stupid, so it's perfect. Okay! So anyway, i like this. This is a little bit of a discovery here, the floor of the 10, so so really watch bond yields to know if our market's going to keep crashing. How interesting and what's also interesting is if we go to 2018.

I want to see the end of 2018 because that's when we had a lot of pain uh because of the taper, so let's jump on over here to the end of 18., so yeah, here's the end of 18.. We got, we got pretty darn flat see. This is this is when the real estate market started. Crashing was right here, real estate market really sold off in these two months right here and you had a big old slip and then over here right here at this sharp decline right here.

That's when you had the stock market crash. Oh how interesting very, very good alignment there, all right! Okay, good! So let's go ahead and look at some other stocks here, uh, while also quickly reminding you to, as usual, check out the links down below for the programs on building your wealth, because the price goes up again uh on schedule. At the end of christmas day, i wait all the way to the end of christmas day. So it's it's not like uh, i'm the grinch, although i am wearing a runescape, grinch jack or a sweater here so but uh.

That is what the uh the plan is. All righty, so let's go ahead and take a look at the sticks and see what we're actually dealing with today on the individual stock basis, so uh tesla up very nicely seven percent uh elon, apparently has not been selling. Today we do expect that elon is going to continue selling uh over the next four weeks. Watch my video on tesla.

If, at any point you have a reaction, that's like hey, but elon said he was done. Selling you've been misinformed. I highly encourage you to watch my video on elon not being done selling and uh. Please watch that video before uh spreading misinformation, because if you watch the video it'll become very clear what elon musk actually said day night says this is meet.

Kevin's 500th live stream. I'm not sure if you're just saying that, because it feels like i do a lot of live streams or if it actually is uh. I suppose i don't really have the answer to that, but it that seems very interesting. If, if that's the case, but anyway, we have, we have some uh, there's some stuff to look at here, so we're gon na look at the sticks: okay, so uh tesla sitting at about seven percent.

It looks like we're getting a little bit of an end of the day. Push here see if that's true uh, no, not really. It looks like we hit more of a bottom about a couple hours ago at about 988. So, no not necessarily, if anything we just had a nice little red candle.

Stick that showed up here just at the end, but we've seen quite a bit of this. Look at these sharp little little drawdowns here. Well, does this mean elon's back is elon doing this? Look at these sharp little sell downs here you see those volume. Spikes look at that.

That's about an extra 100 000 shares right there that are being dumped uh at those moments is that eli elon is that you elon tweet. If that's you tweet something tweet something in the next five minutes. If that's you and you're watching uh or go like something, i don't know, do something on twitter, i'll stalk you over the next five minutes and then we'll know probably nothing's going to happen. Don't get excited, oh elon actually did tweet a minute ago.

Look at this he's literally reiterated what i said this morning when the 10b pre-programmed sales complete, there are still a few tranches left, but almost done um uh, exactly uh the the clarity everyone was looking for. Uh thanks thanks at elon, and my guess remains that we have three to four trading days of sales of i should say: tranches left uh we've seen an average of one per week, one tranche per week, so there's an e at the end of that. Isn't there trench per week yeah there is so we could be done by the third fourth week of january boom. Maybe elon was watching he's like okay kevin i'll tweet.

That was like perfect timing. I don't know two minutes ago. We love you elon, if you're watching. If you're, not, we still love you too, okay, so uh, let's, let's keep going here uh, so tranches are just like groups, think like baskets uh, it's just a fancy dumb dumb word or like a like a categorical group, okay good.

So why is somebody saying why would i buy when elon selling yeah look it's it's kind of like the way you got ta look at. It is like a bucket. Imagine there's a bucket, or or here it's a coffee, mug and your coffee machine is putting coffee in the top. That's buyers, that's like tesla, fanboys and fangirls, and institutions buying and they're putting coffee in the mug, and so it's filling up, but there's a hole at the bottom called elon.

And so your hope is that your coffee machine is loading. This cup up more than is leaking out of the bottom and and as long as that's true, the stock price goes up like today. It's up seven percent uh when that hole gets plugged. The stock price should be a lot more freed to go up right, uh but uh.

If there's not as much coming in the top and elon's hole's still going, then then you know. Obviously the price goes down and that's what we saw yesterday when we went down to 86. um, okay, elon's, really creating an opportunity for you to just buy, shares lower it's really what we got uh all right. So, let's see here, uh oh wow, rite aid gave up like almost all of its uh gains here.

Rite aid had a really big day. It was up like 17, not that long ago, yeah look at this uh. It was up to what do we get to here about 15 41. We just dropped 8 percent on rite aid.

Oh my gosh dd keeps going down. Oh my gosh, and this is despite the fact if they end up listing in china. They're expecting this thing to be worth: eight dollars and 15 cents a share or whatever uh drew says for more coffee, mug examples by the course. I think, you're saying that.

How do i feel about these dark pools? Look, i think, there's a lot of transparency. That's needed in the stock market, but uh. I do think that it doesn't really it like. With the exception of certain circumstances, i don't think it's anything that like.

I would encourage anybody to be nervous about um. I would just focus on your fundamental investments and don't worry about all the the wall street crap. You know when there's a movement you could be a part of and you can voice your concern over a lack of transparency. Do it be a part of it, but uh short of that there's: it's not something.

That's really worth paying attention to imho anyway: amc down four and a half percent today, cloudflare down four and a half percent baba, the chinese stocks just getting hammered, but so is a firm. Although a firm's sticking rubber banding to that uh to that 100, robin hood down about 2.6, had someone on cnbc, apparently this morning, bagging on it, which, whatever like at this point, that's what you would expect. Yes, kyle james nailed it it's all about elon's hole. Uh meet kevin supply and demand.

Yes, there. There, you see mark rather than talking about a coffee mug with a hole in it mark, has a very sophisticated response. It's simple supply and demand. Uh supply is essentially uh increased by 950 000 a week.

Demand remains constant. Oh, i see if supplies cut, okay, you're, making more sophisticated, somebody can read it. It's fine! I get what you're saying uh anyway. So let's see here arcg down a point, six rg's started a little bit of a u-turn, though look at that.

It's that same december. Third to december 17th ish floor, so it looks like we're off of that floor of about 58 for archie. I'm gon na write that down on my floors list. He does watch miss manners, that'd be cool.

I i don't know. I doubt it. I respect him a lot but uh. I never get replies from him the only time he liked a reply to one of my tweets.

He unliked it it's kind of funny. You think about it. Uh, although i will say i'm at two uh likes from may musk, which i think that's pretty cool, uh elon, musk's, uh mom so does - does that count. Uh elon should buy the course i think elon's doing.

Okay, he's uh he's got a busy busy life. I don't envy the amount of busyness that he has going on, but uh hey, you know, um, it's uh. If you're doing big things, i think it's awesome. Okay.

So what else do we have here? Okay, neo? Oh yeah, yeah! This is what may musk like in case. Those of you who don't use twitter are wondering. Uh may must like this, he may must likes. I did this little chart and i called it.

Uh noob verse pro on tesla stock and elon musk stock market 101 and uh says here: uh tesla at the bottom left. Well, so here let me start with the pro one. So pro investors on tesla pro investors on tesla here realize tesla is growing exponentially, so they invest tesla's still growing exponentially, so they invest tesla's still growing exponentially, so they invest, and this is like the stock price right and then you get noob investors on tesla over Here and the noob investors say tesla's overvalued, then you get tesla is a bubble stock, as the price keeps going up and then, of course, when the climate you know gets to like the highest point, gm is the next tesla. So anyway, may must like that one.

Okay, so i doubt that a lot tony, i appreciate that, but i doubt that a lot uh, okay, let's see here, yeah there - i like that explanation, it's the equivalent of buying the course on a discount when elon's selling there you go all right. Let's see here, uh wow, you deliver you, you met elon when he delivered the first roadster that is so cool wow. That is awesome good for you, okay. So oh.

I also wanted to clarify this because uh i think yesterday. Actually, i think it was i'm not sure which live stream it was in, but it was in one of the live streams. Ah no i screwed i screwed up. I said i bought luna, but i accidentally i bought matic twice.

Sometimes i do that when i'm, like. Rushing and it's really stupid, but i me i had a list written down of the the cryptos i wanted to buy uh like a week ago or whatever and i'll just quickly show where that moment was so it's right here hold on. There see look at that. I bought btc ada dot, matic matic avax, one of those maddox was supposed to be luna, but it was actually uh matic twice so um oops, oh well, uh all right.

So my neighbor is a design engineer for tesla. Apparently he sees elon at least once a week. That's awesome, that's awesome. Are you gon na finally clarify my secret love for gold? I own no gold, all right so tesla's rallying here into the close yeah.

Look at that rally into the clothes there on tesla. Very nice all right, so moderna gosh modernists getting burned. I really think it's because of the walter reed uh spike. What is it spike? Protein ferritin vaccine or whatever risk off on amc, emeryn how's emerald been doing that's big.

That was always a big momentum mover there for a while uh. Oh my gosh wow. I did not know that emirate went all the way up to 27 and it's back to four dollars now. It shows you the danger of just pure momentum, 100 bucks on a firm, i actually think is still somewhat of a deal uh.

You know relatively close to that support line, draftkings, i'm watching as well. For a bottom, oh, i was going to write down arc g as a bottom, so let's put down 26 for draftkings bottom and we were going to put arc g at the bottom of about what 50 58. I believe that was so yeah. I know you really want wine you're shading every live stream, though we got to add blind labs.

Fine, it looks just like the robin hood chart, so they could be sisters. Oh look robin hood's right there, uh, okay, so roku is having an interesting little slow down in the share price bounced off the bottom, pretty hard square still close to the bottom lemonade, still close to the bottom again that lack of real conviction in the market. Um. Oh my gosh, i i don't know why this popped in my head, but should should i say this or is this stupid um, you know how, when you have a crush on somebody and then you're like you're like nervous around them, so you don't say anything.

I i should say like elon liking, a reply to one of my tweets means. Elon has a crush on me. No that's stupid. It's really stupid, but i don't know why that popped into my head, because we were joking, obviously about elon, watching and and uh.

We obviously expect that he's not, but that's just stupid. Let me move on so zoom how's zoom here so interesting, zoom kind of had its bottom around 175.. I'm gon na write that down as well on zoom but zoom's, actually now trying to almost head back to that bottom, a little bit down three percent, i mean not heavily, i mean square and paypal are doing almost the same thing. Tattooed chef tattooed chefs come off the bottom all right.

We got one minute left here piton. I actually do think piton somewhat found a bottom, but uh no you're right, no, actually, you're right. I don't uh yeah wow. No, you are right.

It has not really found a bottom here. It hit a low of 36.42. Well, then again, is it? Is it potentially there because we're we're still there really interesting, hmm all right uh, let's just watch tesla as it goes into the close here for a moment. Yeah, look at that tesla rally into the close is apple.

Doing that as well. We have 30 seconds going left into the close here. Is this s p buying yeah? This is probably s p, buying folks, apple, microsoft. Look at those runs right into the close.

This is people, the fear is going away. The uncertainty is going away and we're seeing some s p buying here into the close. That's what we've got. That's why tesla's rallying a little bit, let's go ahead and get the uh bell, but just by a little bit it's a fairly inclusive rally, as the dow is going to go out up about 265 points.

35 753 for the dow jones industrial avenue. Another strong finish two in a row: four stops we're firmly positive for the week and the month. Welcome back to closing bell everyone, i'm sarah okay, there. It is so we've got hey, look sarah's wearing green today and the market's all green 0.74.

On the dow one point: oh two percent on the s: p, 500. Nasdaq. One point: one, eight russell point: eight six uh bitcoins, almost at forty nine thousand, it's kind of been playing this game for a while uh nice little rally into the clothes on the mega caps, speaking specifically of uh of of tesla and some of the others. Oh jerry, this is interesting.

Oh i, like your thesis, a lot uh. I like your thesis now, there's there's an element of this that needs to be done, but you're not wrong. Kathy's been dumping tesla, even even at like 950 dollars. Sometimes she's been dumping tesla for some of these smaller caps and i understand, there's an element of rebalancing your etfs regularly, but you're right i mean the the actual share allocation for tesla has gone down, so it would be interesting to compare kathy's allocations allocations.

Uh of tops and c, because that's that's a really good observation, jerry nailed it that's a good one. Claire is wondering about my thoughts on covet impacts on the hotel industry, specifically due to housing, instability. Yeah we've got such housing issues in america because we don't build enough homes. That's interesting i'll, write that down.

I don't know i don't know the answer to that. It'd be really cool to talk to like ben mala or something about that. But that's yeah. That's very interesting, uh! Okay, let's see here all right, so all right excel fleets up about eight percent.

What else do we have here? Uh purple purple's, coming back from the death arcimoto, let's go shout out to arkamoto. Seven percent here looks like ev is decent decent movement on the evs here today, xping tesla arcimoto embraer uh corsair, three percent. Oh, i got some options on. I got some yolo options on corsair, so that's probably good how'd rk do today sounds a lot like arcade arcade.

Oh it's down! Oh wait! No, no! That's after hours, how'd it do on the day. Oh, if anything, it seems like it's relatively flat. What did it close for yesterday? Closing it yeah same thing, if anything, yet it did close down. Fractionally today end phase 189.

It's pretty close to that 180 bounce level, lucid sitting under 40., probably a more reasonable place for it until we get those delivery numbers still nervous about those delivery. Numbers rivian ends at 96 also had a nice push at the end of the day. Look at that push at the end of the day. This is institutions, people are buying, so a rivien push.

What about elsa? Do we have a little push there at the end of the day as well? Yeah last minute we did what about uh? Yes, i'm getting a sofi so far, uh how'd it do today. So a lot of folks were waiting for those uh for so far to potentially pick up a lot of refinances on on the expiration. The student loan forbearance, but i believe that was just extended for 90 days, which uh not so ideal for sofi. So so, if i sit and back down uh huh tattooed chef, what do we got over here? Somebody's asking about tattoo chef, so tattooed chef, yeah, still hanging around it's been hanging out around the 16 level.

For quite a while, almost makes you wonder, is: is this potentially somewhere that 1550 level of bottom we've hit that a few times? 16. 15 50 right around here we've hit that quite a few times between 15 50 and 16.. It seems to be somewhat of a bottom uh and we've been on this wild downtrend. Oh the comments about joe okay: let's see cardano 134 matapor back over 24.

nice for matterport owlette, coming back a little bit dave and buster's over 38.. Always that flip on dave and busters. Will there be another chance to get it under 30. or is omicron over apple back to 175.

wow? All right? Let's take a look at some headlines here, so we talked about this 10 2 curve, a lot earlier, which was very useful. In my opinion, omicron hospitalization yeah this - this was a big story about ami, we'll, probably look into this a little bit more detail later. Hhs wants to get potential bias and long waits to get vaccine. Pfizer pill was approved way better than the merc pill, like substantially better did, did even bloomberg.

Get this wrong. Yeah even bloomberg got this wrong. Folks remem. I made a whole video about how uh how people are misunderstanding that elon musk says he still.

He sold enough shares plus his other stuff, like the option stuff. Even bloomberg got that wrong. That's hilarious! I'm i'm gon na print that i'm saving that one that one's going in and over here boom right on the desktop until i sort it. Oh dear, that's all right, you know it's okay to get things wrong.

I get stuff wrong too. I always just happen to be right about the elon thing uh, but that's all right. All right. Let's see anything else.

Wall street journal same thing with the studies homes, home, sell at fastest pace in 10 months. Wow i've been buying, stick it to your tesla tequila. I finished my tesla tequila and then i gave away the bottle. The housing mark is just nuts.

I should probably do a separate video about why i'm still being crazy buying real estate, but i just love it. That's crazy sales on track since best year since 2006.. That's always a great comparison, because it's like right before the big crash yeah, not really all right. What else i don't know anything else happening in the after hours? Do we have any earnings today? Let's see here charge points up about a percent.

Let's see if we have any earnings today. No, we don't steve wants to know. When will the housing market crash? Well, there will become a time when housing becomes excessively euphoric uh, where uh in in what's gon na happen is in order for average people like median income, households and families to actually be able to afford homes. They're gon na have to substantially lower credit guidelines and loan standards from where they are now, and until we see that loosening, we might not see that that the actual bubble expansion, which means there could still be an insane bubble, expansion ahead, uh and what you really Want to pay attention to are loan lending standards.

I actually think there are charts on this uh. I usually just pay attention to actually what's happening with borrowers. Oh, i did that a lot more when i was a broker because i'd be like hand-holding people through the loan process right, but i don't really do that anymore, um lending standards. Let me see if i can find that tightening stance, yeah net percentage of banks, tightening standards for commercial and industrial loans.

No, i want. I want regular people, loans, see what you want. What you're looking for is a loosening of standards usually and see like like this. For example, look at this: this is a net percentage of domestic bank's tightening standards for credit card loans and you'll, actually notice right here, right above my head, you've actually seen a decline in the number of banks tightening so in other words, you have a loosening a Number under the line is like a loosening right and usually you get tightening during a recession which you saw right here, 2008 uh over here, it's it's when you get really low periods that you can lead to bubble ups, but this is credit cards.

I really want to see this uh tightening standards for like houses, ah subprime mortgage loans. This isn't that good of a chart - okay, uh, how about government-backed loans? Oh commercial, real, this one! This is gon na, take a little more research. Then it's really worth doing live here, but uh yeah you're not really seeing a substantial loosening right now. You saw a little bit earlier the year, but but if you start seeing what you saw with the credit cards - and you start seeing uh this, this goes substantially negative, that that could be your first signs.

So that's what i would look for. There will always be another housing bubble, just a matter of when uh existing households are actually not very sensitive to interest rates going up, because mortgages generally are done on a fixed rate term uh, i don't know the percentage, but my guess is in excess of 80 To 90 of home mortgages in the united states or fixed rate for 30 years, uh or 15 years, which means really your sensitivity, your your household sensitivity to higher interest rates is effectively zero um. You know it could dampen some consumer spending because it becomes less desirable to refinance and take equity out, because you lose that lower rate, but uh yeah existing households not too sensitive imo. Why did end face pop one point? Three percent? Well, i think it sold off in the middle of the day.

That's sure: okay, nothing really happening in the after hours, either by the way. But let's go to and get a mortgage on your house today and buy all the tulips. Oh my gosh uh yeah yeah in canada. You so you don't have that.

Unfortunately uh, i think the most you guys usually do is that ten. But i think you i mean i i don't know - maybe maybe you're right - that the five year is the most common and then what you do. Is you renegotiate with the bank? Germany? Does that too uh? You know you fix for like 10 years and then you renegotiate, they don't do that in america, it's really different and - and you know why - it's because of the government, because the government uh backs these with with fannie mae freddie, mac, ginny may and you don't uh, Because of that backing you get 30 and 15 year fixed, you get the creation of the beast of the the lifetime fixed rate loan, basically, the fully amortized loan. If, if we were just doing private market loans, we'd be a lot like canada and germany uh, which is kind of cool to to think about that difference.

But yeah the the united states is very very different because of that best stocks to buy on tapering time. Yeah, well, that's that's a crystal ball question! Uh! It's tough because you know the question is really an expectation. Is ela? Are rates going to uh go up three times in 2022 or is the fed going to slow down? Is inflation actually going to rotate down? Is it going to be enough? Do they have to raise rates again? I think that's. Probably the bigger question is the inflection point of the fed's behavior, not so much rates actually moving.

I i almost expect rates actually moving to be somewhat of a nothing burger. I think it's the surprises that you're going to get from the fed that'll move the market. What about about bland or blend or whatever stuck? Somebody wrote that if you get locked in with a predatory loan in the u.s, because you have to just suck up the poor tax you're locked in a predatory loan yeah, i mean predatory loans. I mean you always have bankruptcy as an option, not that anybody wants to be encouraged to file bankruptcy, but yeah.

No, i mean, if you agree to crappy terms that can happen. It's true, not too late. All right, i'm gon na go now thanks. So much for being here good to know that elon musk is not done.

Selling we've finally got that clear, clear clarity and folks we'll see in the next one thanks again goodbye.