Man good morning, ladies and gentlemen, good morning good morning, are you uh? What do you think um ay, what you think ab shiba shiba? I think um you're, probably slightly late but yeah. I think. Overall, it's been a good play, interesting, thumbnail, yeah. I don't know what the thumbnail is, i'm not sure never seen that thumbnail.

No, i don't know um so anyways last night or not last night, but yesterday i was pretty confident we would go up to um. Was it 362 or something like that? Let's see so yesterday, i was aiming for, i think, 360 280 somewhere around there um it might. I thought it was 360 140, but maybe it was 360 280 but anyways. So yesterday i was trying to get the markets at 360 280, because that was really the only trend target to have really hit uh on the way up for that move.

So for this move, the only thing based on my strategy that i was able to aim for was that red line um before we would have resistance, at least on the nasdaq um blah blah blah doesn't matter. It fell apart overnight. So this really doesn't look good. The fact that we fell apart this much after this aggressive bullish move that still obviously says weakness um.

So today, before i go further in blah blah blah, it's my uh assumption we're trying to bounce back up on the market to 354 this morning before we would try to resume a downward sell-off um. So i kind of think we might do another leg down on the market today after seeing the progression overnight um. But i would imagine the markets are trying to increase on the nasdaq to 354.69 pre-market, maybe into the open before they roll over and were to go down per se. So if you're thinking bearish, i feel as if a low risk entry point might be right about 354.65.

So i feel kind of bad because i really thought we were going to go up to 362. um. What are the reasons why we didn't? I mean there could be a trillion reasons why i think it might have. I think we could argue, maybe um, if the belief really is that you know one index could bring down another.

Then arguably, it's possible. It's because the dow jones had its resistance right about 344, so it's like when we look at the spy, so this was this is what i was doing yesterday when trying to pick a price target for us was. I was looking at the spy and the spy had resistance at 432.06. Wait a second now, i'm like getting my own self yeah.

Okay, that makes sense yeah, so spy had resistance at 430 260, but we broke that um, so yeah. Yesterday the spy bird gets resistance. The dow had broke its resistance, so i'm like okay, it's the nasdaq resistance, we're going for which was at 362., but by the end of the day the nasdaq fell apart and then obviously the spy and the dow got sucked down. So the way that i'm rationalizing this and whether you know you want to rationalize it the same or believe it's correct.

It is my belief that you know, maybe yesterday a portion to why i was wrong, but hindsight 2020, all the dust settles the way that i'm rationalizing this is yesterday. My price target obviously was wrong um. The reason that i tried to go for 362, 30 uh. Yesterday, on the nasdaq in general was because our s, p, 500 had surpassed its daily intraday resistance, and the dow jones had passed its intraday resistance.

Things were still moving bullishly. So at that point it's like well, what do you do now? Do you not think they're gon na go higher, or do you just so? At that point i chose to look at the nasdaq and pick the next trending target that we could reach and it appeared to be at 362.35 in the mark on the market. So if the nasdaq went to that price, then whatever price the dow jones had been up to or maybe even the nasdaq would have been, you know where it's at now. That is based on the belief that there is a correlation and cause between all three indexes, and that is my belief and if you think that there's no correlation no cause and effect when it comes to spy to queues or cues to tao, then you would think I'm spewing complete out of my mouth and that's completely: okay, too, so it's my belief.

They do have a correlation in cause. That is everything in my mind about picking yesterday's target. Maybe why it didn't get hit today or didn't didn't actually get hit um, and now that it does settle, that's the way i'm rationalizing it is. Maybe the markets got a little bit ahead of themselves.

Maybe i got ahead of myself and we really just weren't supposed to go 360 to 35, really we're just supposed to go up to maybe like 432 on the spy or whatever it was that price on the dow jones. And then we were really supposed to pull back, but since it was the first really good looking day, we've had in a while, we all kind of jumped on it and maybe blew it up a little higher than maybe what it was supposed to move on the Day, um so whatever it might have been, who knows fully, but i was wrong so today um either way. I figured that before the market on well the spy or the nasdaq was gon na really try to have a harsh, harsh pullback, which you can see. They just kind of did like a little pullback right there, not a super big one, but definitely did one there um.

It was my belief that they were going to try. The market was gon na try to get up to about 350 469.. So i'm not saying you should be extremely bullish, this bottom, but again it is. It was my belief that um markets would try to do like another bearish roll over today, but once this counter trend bounce has concluded and one of my conclusions - okay, one of the spots - i assume we would conclude this counter trend.

Bounce myself was um. You know maybe on a retest or a rejection of 354., so still going to be watching this price throughout the day and through pre-market and into the open. So in the event the market does come up to the 354 prices. 350.

470. um. I think we'll try to do a bearish move off that so just like you can see yesterday it's basically the same thing you remember yesterday we were watching like yeah we're gon na look for the market to clear through and then we're gon na see. If we can go long, oh don't want to do that and by the way, the scanners, for whatever reason have just been acting up this morning, not working on my computer.

So it could be something with my account um, so yeah just like yesterday, we're looking to break over that red line and see if we could squeeze same concept like maybe a retrace back to that red line and then fall down so just like it broke out. Yesterday, it's my assumption. It would be resistance today right, so yesterday we kind of flag whatever go up break it can't get the 363 price target up here, falls short, goes down overnight breaks and then you'll see right here. Watch this.

It turns into like a perfect bear flag, so so look like watch this ready. This is this is actually i just realized this well, i didn't just realize it, but it's kind of cool so like we're 350. 480 watch this. Oh, it's like right here so so yesterday pre-market you get like a bull flag kind of set up on pattern.

Recognition, if you may like just before or slash just under that red line, and then it goes up, comes down right and then you get a big uh bear flag just before that red line right there, it's harder. It might be harder to recognize on my screen. I'll zoom in so then you can see you get this bear flag in the after hours just before that level, so go back longer, developing bull flag, pre-market before the red line and then after hours bear flag into the red line and snap down so we'll see. If we can retrace up to the 354 83s and then see a bearish move, um uh downside targets, things like that, so downside moves would still be the same targets.

We've been watching. That really haven't been touched and those would be the negative one. Deviations on the daily so pretty much if we get another bearish move in the markets and we keep sliding we're gon na look to go to the negative one deviation, which has always been a support level. We've been talking about for like three weeks now.

It just really hasn't actually touched: we've always gotten pretty close and the closer we've gotten, the more bullish we've been kind of trading we've been seeing bottom bounce days, the closer we get to it, but we've never touched so guess we can debate that. Maybe we're gon na go touch it today. So on the nasdaq. If the market continued to slide down below the previous low of 350 33, it would have to run um to touch that point.

It would be down at 348.32. So in the event markets do go bare today and swing down. This would be my first look as a reversal. Long price on the day somewhere in that zone would be my first spot to look for a reversal along um.

So let me redo that where's my there. It is uh all right. Let's take a little mickey gander at the spy here, so the spy is a little different from the nasdaq they always are, but um. Today, i'm kind of using the nasdaq again um for direction because well in a way - i guess you could say but anyways before i get really really confusing um yeah.

Sorry before i get super confusing, i'm just gon na finish up here on the spy, all right, spy uh - you got this guy down here, which is all gon na change, so he's kind of put too much emphasis, sometimes but um yeah i mean this is going To be, and then this down here is okay, so pretty much it's my belief that on the day, the market's gon na try to trade to one of these two red lines, either 430, 180s or 423.96. I kind of think the market wants to go up before going down more, so it's my belief that the spy would first try to trade to this red line on the day. But i also don't necessarily think that the spy is going to be able to run all the way up through kind of this breakdown point to touch that level. So it's my belief that it'd be more likely that we could see the nasdaq run to this one right and then drop so um yeah, i'm kind of following the nasdaq, maybe a little closer than i am the spy, particularly only because it seems that the long Target on the nasdaq's a little closer to achieve than that of the s p 500.

For now, maybe i should take a look at the dow just briefly because the past couple days it has been kind of um providing important. You know correlation. So, wherever we gap down to on the dow dj axe here, we're gon na have to come back up to that. I'm gon na show four here all right, so the dow jones, when the market opens at dow jones, probably have already bounced off of i don't know i don't i you know, i don't really know an etf that tracks this um specifically like the qs.

I just never always looked at dj x, but anyways yeah when the market opens. You will see that when the market opens on the dow it probably dropped down close to this price point overnight, which is 339 68.. I don't know but yeah dia there. Okay, let's see what that is, i always look at always look at dj x.

I never look at dia, but thank you um, so so like looking at djx right. This is what i just said that the market probably gapped down overnight to 339.70 on at least djx here, which, if you look at the daily chart, would be this one deviation price here i haven't even looked at dia. This is the first time i've probably ever looked at it, knowing what i'm looking at right. I know it seems odd right but seriously.

I always look at dj x, um, so anyways, uh, dia and um. So i assume that the gap down on djx would be around 339.75 looking at dia, we'll see where the pre-market low is, if it ended up being on that negative one deviation price and you will see when we change to the four hour chart. Well, let's go back to the daily, so we can get the price level. So the trend line here that we're talking about comes into play.

On d, i a wherever that is change the four hour chart and then you'll see pre-market dia gap down to about that white line and that's we're bouncing um. So same thing. I think markets are going to go up, but we're not using the dow jones right now. I think we're just kind of watching the nasdaq and the spy closer as opposed to the dao, but watching nasdaq.

First, because i think it's, i think it's the nasdaq. That's going to go up to 350 489. First um, it doesn't matter. I just think you watch the cues up to that price right now.

All right um cheers good morning all right, so everyone's caught up on the market, everyone's happy cool, fantastic. I hope you guys liked today's title and i hope you guys like today's thumbnail, how would you use standard dev to day trade options so um? I keep saying this, but it's you know we're gon na do some more option stuff on this channel. At some point um, but really quickly, i will briefly touch on options, because it's a good question um, we all know there's about six trillion different ways to trade options. So not gon na tell you what the best strategy is there, but i would say the main idea, or at least when i visualize using standard deviation myself like when i'm laying in bed at night dreaming of lambos and beautiful women on yachts.

With all my pros and profits that i'm probably not going to make the next day, i usually think standard deviation, helps kind of give good entries and exits um and many times good targets. So, ideally it's it's more of like a reverse. It's almost like a swing trading. It's like a connect, the dots swing trading strategy - it literally is, if you think it's, if you think of the game, connect the dots like when you're kidding to connect them - or you go from here to here to here to here to here to here to here And eventually, it makes a picture.

That's basically what standard deviation is all right. These levels we're looking at give us basically point a's and point b's, and it's our assumption that we don't really care where the market's at in 30 days from now all we're looking at is like. Well, we went from point a here. We should go to point b here and once we go from point b here, we should go to point a here and once we hit point a here, we should go from point so we're just connecting the dots and trying to swing from one point to the Next point: one point to the next point and our belief is that the market is ever continuous and ongoing with infinite possibility, um just like the galaxy, so you're, just kind of connecting docs from point a to point b um.

So, in regards to trading options, it gets a little bit tricky to a degree, because you have the timing aspect of it so um. Sometimes it helps to look at a chart like this with no uh. How am i saying no um after hours, data, so equities tab and so a lot of us? We all do it. There's there's market trading hours and after hours, trading and pre-market trading, which is pre-market trading after a string but correct me if i'm wrong, when you think of after hours, trading or pre-market trading, do you not think it's almost like this different market right to you? It's almost like it's like this magical, mystical back door market right, it's like you're, like you're, going underground to do trading right.

It's like this mystical time that everyone trades in when in reality, if i were to remove the highlight, extended trading sessions on thinkorswim now, doesn't it just kind of look like it's just one, everlasting continuous market, so one way to kind of train your brain is to To start forgetting about market, not like market closing market open but after hours, but you know like don't think that when the market closes like it's different, it's the same thing right. It's just lower volume, lower liquidity, no market orders right some structure, things change, but nonetheless it's still price still demand. Uppith downeth, you make millions. I lose millions, no lambo for me, but lambo's for you right same thing, apples to apples so um from there.

If the market's continuous right and let's say that you i was wrong, but let's say that you - you knew that from overnight the market want to go from here. To here. Let's say you could predict that you knew that right. Well, a lot of that drop happened overnight right.

A lot of it happened from like here to here. Well still here, whatever right most of that drop was overnight, so it's like, if you you know, if you went long calls right. Your loss is all the way to here the next day, because you couldn't close out overnight right. So that's the other thing with options is the timing aspect of it? So when you think of the market like this, is it's one continuous thing? So if you trade futures or if you trade for the most part etfs that have 24 hours string, you can trade.

No matter where it goes whenever it goes there with options, you can't so it does become a little harder to use when it's regarding options, because you have the timing factor and you can't exit or enter positions in after hours of pre-market trading. So um like in this instance, it's i think at the open. If we don't already hit this red line, you see how we're moving to that red line. We might never hit it.

I don't know we could go through it. I don't care, i don't right. It's just my belief that, for whatever reason the market wants to go in that direction so far it's going in that direction. I don't know why it's going in that direction.

I just thought it was, and it is so thumbs up to that um. So it's the belief that we're going to go to the red line at the open if we were to go up to the red line, does it make so so that's what i'm saying is this could be a breakout. It could be resistance. It's just my belief.

We're supposed to go here so regarding options: training like at the open should you go long, calls to try to get it up to from 353 353 353.83 to 354.86 right. Does that make sense? Maybe? But i don't think it makes sense right. So if i were trading options right, the problem with options, you can get a big loss really quickly. The timing aspect right so for me.

If i were trading options and i'm trying to use the standard deviation trading strategy, we want the biggest gain possible so like in this instance overnight. I would not have longed calls here overnight trying to go to that. 3. 62.

53, too high of risk right. So, even though i thought we could go here overnight, don't long calls trying to trade standard deviation that way, because you'd have to wait overnight right so for one you're losing money, because you got ta, wait overnight number two! Arguably we're still in a bear market so like today, i still don't think i would long calls at the open trying to hit that price target, because there's just not that much money to be made. So what? If we're right - and this ends up being the resistance - where is the target, then so again, it's our belief. We trade from point a to point b and the market is one continuous market, so we went up.

We then broke down right. We broke down trying to go to this target, could not make it without retracing back to see. If it really is a breakdown. Oh, we hit resistance.

Okay, we really wanted to break down. Now we go to target right, so markets trend in cycles up and down high and lows to point a's to point b's so to go long here, trying to get that little itsy bit of money when a new cycle could start from point a well. This point down to this point: it would make more sense to be short right, because your profit potential is all the way down right, as opposed to just this bit, and then your risk is all the way down. Theoretically now would you hold all the way down? Probably not blah blah blah, but your trade is always going to be easiest if it's in the direction with the market and if you're going in the direction of the market, it's easier.

Things are easier, looks way better, then you're more comfortable and when you're more comfortable, you're more confident when you're, more confident you'll hold longer. When you hold longer, you make more money when you make more money, lambos gang, so um yeah. So when it's options make sure there's profit to be had you're not going to have to concern yourself with an overnight hold trying to get just a little bit of profit. Now, an overnight situation like say the market was coming off of support and it had a potential move all the way overnight up to like 360..

So it's like oh yeah right now. The support is down here, but the next resistance points up here yeah i could. I could hold a couple calls overnight, because the risk does seem favorable there right, so there is a way to trade them with options, but it's more or less the whole overnight factor with ha that you have to concern yourself with yeah, because it happened to me A couple times this past week we did, you know i i longed a couple calls and things like that overnight um, i think one of them was this day. I think i long calls overnight then close them at the open, and then i don't remember the last one.

I know i did a couple in here somewhere. I know we did some shorts a little bit here and there, but nonetheless did a bunch of kind of bottom bounce calls, and you know the same thing like this day. I had calls we went up and then by the morning they started gapping it down. So it's like, i missed two dollars worth of profit on my options because they gapped it down throughout overnight, and so that's another thing is you can lose money very easily on options just by overnight, moves that you have no control over and can't do anything with.

So i don't want to hammer too far on that, but so justin. I know that doesn't really give you much perspective on strategy and approach, but hopefully it helped a bit. Uh dev channels were picture perfect on pltr. Yesterday, yep they went right up to the statistical mean you're, absolutely right.

Neo morning lads you bought a spy put at the peak yesterday, nice very good, very good, very good, wait, 350 470 and that's the daily chart so overnight. That's could also be down a little bit true good morning, because btc is moving. What are your targets on m.a.r.a awesome streaming, thumbnail appreciate it appreciate it uh kagan senway regarding bitcoin being a risky asset. Yeah! No, i mean it's everything.

Everything in this life is pretty much risky, but yeah, it's still a risky asset. 100 um, the technology behind it. Well, the technology behind it isn't really risky right. It's it's people's belief, that's risky! That's really! It um! You know if there was only a hundred people.

You know in this world and we could put them all in one room and sit them down and educate them on that and then really get an agreement going that says hey. This is what we're going to do, because it's just this good and then we all came to agreement on it. The risk category we completely wiped off the face of the planet, because that's how good the tech is so whatever um, whatever you know, belief that humans came to have for fiat currency right, whatever, whatever, whatever someone was selling someone to believe in fiat right, whatever governments Or whoever the guy was or whoever invented it or whoever had to make or spark the initial thought for fiat and to make people believe it. He was a really good salesman, because you don't even need a salesman to sell someone on the technology, because it's just that good.

So that's what i mean is that whatever means people use to get people to believe in fiat, we don't even have to do with bitcoin. All we have to do is just get them to the point where they're able to comprehend what it actually is and then the belief factor would follow and then the risk category would be completely faked. Off white's fape wiped off the face of the earth in relation to belief that it actually works or trust that it actually is good. Then the risk still goes there from then the risk that is still out there is the same risk.

That's exists in this world. Is this company good? Is this crypto technology good, so on and so forth? Is amazon really going to go to 10 million, or is amc really going to go to 10 million? So now it's all the same risk factors that originally are in our or that are still in our life with the stock market. So it's once people actually get behind it, then that eliminates that risk. Yes, you have governments, but that's the same thing.

Governments are people so as soon as you convince people, you convince governments and that just goes hand in hand um. So it's the belief factor that poses the risk, but it's so much. I think it's so much easier to trust this currency than all fiat currency, because there is actually something that backs it right. If you think about currency now, we've already we've already.

We already all know this discussion, but in reality there really is something that backs crypto. There is nothing that currently backs fiat, so it's like that argument's gone now, um yeah, but anyways. So it's really just the trust factor that creates the risks right now, and so as soon as we can get that gone, it's gon na be tits up. My dudes uh, so bitcoin holy bitcoin, is at fifty three thousand there's these white lines on my chart.

That's really weird. I remember putting white lines on my chart. The other day, almost like the market was targeting white lines. Let's see, ah really really odd market has moved to regression trend luck.

I mean once you have six million lines on your chart. The price is bound to hit them once in a while. So figures figures i suck no, i really do i'm trash so um. That's cool.

That means we're all hippie guy yay making monies my dudes um. So my next price target for bitcoin was already announced. I think yesterday. So my next price target of bitcoin is going to be all-time highs.

67. 000. At this point, and not that it ever wasn't right like and i'm not trying to claim anything of bitcoin, i have not been on top of bitcoin, nearly as well as half the entire planet. There are kids that have made millions.

There's people that analysis is probably significantly more in-depth than mine by all means right: the people that have been calling 65 100 500 000 for five years they deserve the credit. All i'm doing is just piggybacking on the success of a cryptocurrency and trying to now give my best analysis based on what i do on a day-to-day basis, but i am no way shape or form i'm going to take any credit for anybody's analysis prior to me. Based on my system, it seems that the next bullish stretch in the market once we successfully break through the statistical mean, will take us to the all-time high. At that point, no, you can probably see maybe a pullback you're at the all-time high.

So if we get a statistical mean break here on uh, the old bitcoin you're going to look for a move to 60 set well before you look for 67, 000 i'll. Tell you the price point. You look for. First, the price point you look for before 67 000 is going to be 59 000, so pretty much 60.

000.. So you're looking there's a couple other levels before that, but i'm just going to stick to the main ones, the biggest so the biggest main ones. You think about are at sixty thousand and then sixty seven thousand and it's really not sixty thousand. It's fifty nine thousand five hundred and fifty five fifty nine thousand five hundred fifty nine okay um.

So that's cool thumbs up to bitcoin this morning, cheers boss! But that's a super bullish formation. Um to me it almost seems like there's. No doubt it's going to 60 000., like that's the way i feel about. When i look at this and how strong it actually looks.

Yeah, i feel like it's going to go to 60 000., but at the same time, just yesterday i looked at the nasdaq i'm like that's going to go to 362.. We only went to 360., so okay yeah we got close. Not quite, i think it looks good. I won't be surprised one bit when we look back two weeks from now and you're like oh, it's that two million no i'm kidding.

But when we look back two weeks from now and we see it's at sixty thousand, it's gon na be like oh so um. Hopefully, that happens, that's good. That would be great okay, so this is um a good one to move on over into is m-a-r-a because obviously bitcoin's moving, so where the target so i'll, pretty much just put it this way. If bitcoin, let me just this - will just make my analysis really easy, so we can speed this up.

If bitcoin does what i just said, it was going to do which was go back to like 60 000. So if it goes to about 60 000 you're gon na see mara at 40 40 - probably well, let me think, would it be 40 or would it be 44 win a tick? Actually, that's interesting that you have yeah so anyways. If bitcoin goes, the 60 000 you're you're gon na see yeah you'll see this go up to 40 to 41.. So if you're watching mara and you're swinging you're like yeah, this is all you should just be swing along to 40 to 41 right now, right, no questions asked that's what you should be going for, um, that's a 4041.

You could probably be going for higher, but you probably need bitcoin to actually break the all-time high for this to go higher um wait, maybe not because bitcoin hasn't broken the mean right. So this is. This is my example right. Let's look at the side by side.

They're almost the same they're, not almost the same but they're close and by the way the nasdaq's getting ever closer to our long target this morning. So if you're along the market, just an fyi, i've had a small long position on the spy um. You should probably already be taking some off. I already did yes you're getting up to that long target.

So if you look at um the daily chart on mara, you can see they're somewhat similar, but obviously mar is lagging bitcoin because mara is not bitcoin and okay. We've had that discussion so right, you can see bitcoin down bitcoin bad ban, bitcoin, bitcoin bad, so bitcoin go down really not why but anyways down and then bitcoin bounce which anyways bitcoin balance. So then, here we go bitcoin bounce and then bitcoin pull back bitcoin pull back now. Bitcoin is at the mean, which is that white line m-a-r-a is not so if m-a-r-a follows price of bitcoin bitcoin has hit the mean and m-a-r-a is not you just assume.

It's gon na go to the mean in the event that bitcoin surpasses the mean right. If the price of mara is lagging bitcoin bitcoin's gone to the mean all right, bitcoin goes through the mean m-a-r-a. Next, stop, it's the mean okay. So for now you just target to the mean on mary huh.

Don't remember that rigo you're here because of the thumbnail very nice, appreciate that boss appreciate that yeah i mean you know: i've put up about six million different thumbnails, ranging from lambos and trading and funny pictures, and this and that's just why not throw up a goofy Face once in a while uh jobs report came out today, you think i have an impact on the market today. Ah sure i mean honestly, i will just say i don't know, i'm not smart enough to know how the market's gon na move with the jobs report. I'm not um, i don't think most are, but if there is someone that is smart enough light me up in the chat. Take me to school and educate me and then take me out back and hose me down.

Okay, i'd love to learn. I don't think many. Do uh and if they do they're, probably at some big bank insider with millions of dollars that looks at us like we're peasants so um. I am not smart enough to know how the market's going to move based on a jobs report, but anytime.

We have some sort of economic data come out generally. There is a move in the market that occurs um, so i don't know how to predict how the market's going to move based on a report. So i usually don't try to um yeah. That's probably my best explanation for that, but does that jobs report change the way the market trades? I don't really think so.

You know i mean like it comes out and then it takes like 10 seconds for people to forget something and markets is trading right. So like, i believe it can affect the market, and so say it's supposed to affect the market. Bullishly okay affects the market, bullishly, okay! Well now the market's bullish right. So, whatever factors you look at to trade a bullish day for anything, would just now be what you're looking at to trade bullish on the market.

If the jobs report made the market bullish right, um and then, if jobs report made market bearish and markets trading bearish all day, then you would learn everything that you already or you would just use everything you've already learned to hopefully trade, the markets bearish. For that day, um yeah, unless you're trying to figure out which way it's going to make the markets move, then that's a rabbit hole. I don't think i'm willing to go down with you, but when you find it and you get out of it, let me know yeah, um, yeah and so actually like uh yeah future or something i was gon na. Look a little bit more.

I've been saying that for about it i say a bunch of stuff for a decade and i never get to i'm the biggest procrastinator, but that's also because my time is so used up every single day that there's not much time i usually have left to uh Use my brain anymore, i dislike options due to manipulation and time frame. Um, so dj is actually hold on one second guys. I got to start up a meeting here: okay, all righty, okay, okay, so uh yeah. What was i saying? Um, yes, options.

I dislike options due to manipulation and time frame. I'm not gon na sit here and put the uh, the tin, foil hat on this morning. I've done that plenty of times and many of times they are always believable, but i'm not going to talk about manipulation and drive us down a rabbit, hole in astronomy or astrology and the you know all the different signs and this and that and how the manipulation Works and why we're all peasants but um yeah, sure i'll raise my hand, it probably exists sure it probably happens more than we think it happens. Sure it may happen less than we think it happens.

If you knew you were entering a market that does and can have manipulation that could help you. So when it comes to options or when it comes to anything in the market. It's a some win-lose game right. It's not that options are manipulated.

It's just that the people you're participating with um are supposed to win so, whatever they're doing with you usually isn't gon na favor you right like when you're at home in your office and everyone's trading options, typically you're, not the one. There writing the options to everybody. Buying them right, like me, behind the computer, for all the 300 400 of you in here today when you go on your phone and you go to robinhood, which, if you had robin i'm going to say. But if you did right, you had robin and you went on your phone and all 400 of you went and just bought one call of apple.

It's not like conor is the one writing you the call it's some dude over at the cboe market. You know in chicago probably some market maker, some computer, some system. That's writing you! The call right. The house typically wins right.

So if they're the ones writing you, then they don't want the market to go where you want it to go right because then they lose. So if you got a right, so if a bunch of you know people all buy this theoretically, if a bunch of people all buy these calls right at 360, then the last thing they want. The market makers want to happen is for the options to expire in 360, because then they'd have to pay out right. That's dumb, so they're gon na do their best to maybe keep it below 360.

and that's all relation now. The market maker can't manipulate a market and keep something below 360, and you know i'm saying like there can. Is they can't just do that forever because, obviously, that's not going to work, but when there's options and some bonehead comes into the market and is trying to get something to move 20 a share within three days and the thing's got an average true range of a Dollar then yeah, it's going to be very easy for the markets to remain in a place that kills your option right. So that's what it is.

You have to understand the timing and how the game works right, don't trade and buy options that have very little time to get to a price you need, because the person writing you. The option is probably a market maker right and the market maker doesn't want to lose so he's going to do his best to make sure your option expires, worthless as most do uh, and so that's why it becomes so hard because you have time and the person You're battling does have direct control in over the market a lot of the times um to a degree. So that's that's something to think about when involving yourselves in the options. Market, dudes, sobs, sava's, comings, back stoods, so yeah saab is a situation where it's today.

It's probably going to try to tag somewhere on like 59 bucks um. Oh it already did yeah never mind yeah. So you see like remember. I just put that level.

My guy it's gon na try to go to 59. Well, it already did that and some and so too late kind of thing they could be uh just yank in everyone's chain before they run this puppy up. I mean you did remember you say the other day. I'm like you know, keep watching it.

Bullish, though i mean it's just a pullback and i think it's overall going to be going higher in the future, so at this point, you're kind of looking for a breakout and a cross through like 59 now um. So if that happens, you can probably see some decent movement uh. No, i did not buy ship um, so so here's here's the deal for me with the whole evergreen situation, i'm not the world's smartest guy, that's for sure, but being your everyday average guy. I witnessed my own private banking industry, alongside of my government print trillions of dollars, still continuing the idea of printing trillions, so i've just seen them go to great lengths to save things um.

So if we consider - and i don't even know what the number is anymore - but it's at least five - six seven trillion dollars they've put in the market over the past - let's just say 10 years right - so you think about trillions and the whole evergrand situation is 300 Billion - it's big, it's not that it's not and i'm sure there's going to be an effect, but if you feel it's gon na throw the markets to an absolute to me, it just doesn't seem that that in itself would be enough. Maybe it's gon na be like a little it'll, be a jab that helps start things, but i mean we're talking 300 billion from a different country, sure they might have assets tied up in the united states, but it's only 300 billion, which is not all tied up In the united states, which is a separate country for first and then their country will throw trillions, if not billions at it, our government would throw trillions if not billions at it. So when we're thinking about what our government already has done, what i'm sure we already know they'd be willing to do and then the dollar value in comparison 300 billions like pennies. That's the way.

I see it um, but you know yeah also um. I want to show you guys something on pltr uh, the stock spiked up last night um. I wanted to show you how markets can get, how markets can just be stupid, sometimes um and follow basically just like no logic at a lot of a lot of times. So uh this is pltr right now, of course, this is a stock market, so i just want to kind of give you guys like hold on one.

Second, i hate when they don't enlarge this, that's so annoying. No, we don't want patterns. You have to get like the perfect spot. So if you read the news, it says that pltr um got an 823 million dollar contract army contract, all right ow, my knee, oh, i should stop sitting like that.

So 823 million dollar contract. That's a big deal, ladies and gentlemen. How big is it, though? I mean just just how big is 823 million dollars well, based on my calculations, 823 million dollars is as big as 823 million dollars. So if it's as big as 823 million dollars, no more no less and therefore the company pltr couldn't be making anything more than 823 million dollars, all of which is not going to be profit given expenses.

So i'll just say it's going to be 600 million. All said and done, okay, so the company's only going to be growing by 600 million. Is the price increase from 23 to 26.65 worth 600 million, or is it more than 600 million? So what we're trying to see is? Did the market get ahead of itself? On 823 million dollars - and they over projected the value of the stock, because my projections say that 823 million dollars, i think, should put the company at a price of about 24.40. I think it was right here when i did this last night.

So let me just go back and double check, so if we go to finviz type in pltr uh, they have 1.89 million shares or 1.89 billion outstanding shares, so 1.89 billion outstanding shares uh, and if we times that by the peak at 26.65 where's my calculator where'd, It go one point 1.89 times by 26.65, that would equal 50.36, so if pltr is priced at 26.65, with 1.89 billion outstanding shares that values the company at 50 billion okay. Prior to this move, okay, prior to that move, we were valued at, i think 44. It might be, i don't know if they updated it from last night, but 44.77 billion, so at 44 points so right here, um markets, valued at 44.7 bill. Okay, at this price market, i think we said was 50 bill.

Okay, the company only is bringing in a new amount of 863 million after expenses - we're just bullshitting here - let's say it's: 600 million after expense, 600 million. So how in the did we go up almost 6 billion or how yeah? How the did we go up? 5.3 billion dollars there all right. So if we're at 44.7 billion and now we're just gon na, say that we'll just we'll just round up for easy purposes and say that 863 million magically turns into a billion. So now we're going to say that the value of the company is actually 45.7 billion, so if it's at 45.7 billion, we would then do um.

So outstanding shares is 1.89 and if we times it by this price 24.4, i could be wrong because i'm just redoing this on the fly and not totally exact but 24.4. That would be 46.117. 116. Minus 44.7 equals 1.4, so my calculations are off by 400 million.

So a price of 2440 is actually overvalued by about 400 million, so we should probably bring this down to maybe like 2427 or something and so based on the 863 million dollar contract. The fair value of uh pltr after the announcement, based on where the valuation of the stock was, should really only put it about 24 33, which is probably why you saw this get. You know, explode and then fade all the way back down. Almost to that price point by uh overnight news, euphoria, hype, momentum, day, trading, speculative investing valuation back to where it probably should be: 24 30, an 863 million dollar increase to the company um yeah, oh where's, that even at they make sense.

I hate when that happens. Oh, that makes sense um did that make any sense yeah. I confuse you guys there um, yeah, so anyways uh and then also right watch this. So i did that in my i didn't do that in my head.

I mean obviously i use a calculator. I mean those numbers weren't totally exact, but you know a lot of that was math-based, which really wasn't that complicated of math um right now. Let's just forget all of that for a second right, what do you think exists right about 24-26? Do you think 24-26 is just like random like and i'm just saying because i don't know for sure, but do you think, like maybe a standard deviation level's there watch so then you change the time frames around a little bit um i'll clear this up. First, so we'll change this over to a four hour chart and you're gon na see oh right, there 24.78, you also have the nine day moving average and a half deviation price right there go to the daily chart and the daily chart has uh the levels.

All the way down here at 23.87 um, but nonetheless, you can see you know just over that kind of break where we were talking about. You know this is where the markets retrace down to. So arguably you could say there. My evaluation thing wasn't perfect again.

It's a ballpark thing: this is a stock market, but based on a 863 million dollar increase of the company on the outstanding shares in valuation, it would only put it at about 20. You know like 24, something and right now we're back at 24.85, which is also a half deviation, statistical price um. So basically, this is support right now, yeah, i yeah. I don't think you really want to be too short, biased there, um anyways.

Sorry, sorry, we'll! Try to we'll try to keep the the cursing to a very, very minimum uh, the anticipation for the markets today, so i've emailed multiple different uh developers. Basically, there's zero timeline. Um no one's been able to do it so far, no one's done it correctly. So far, it's the same issues.

I've been running into for the same two years, but i've just talked to more people about it now, so i've just widened my horizon of possibilities at this point, bitcoin breaking 53k, i mean - is this i mean so like this is so like as someone on youtube Right like this is the moment in time: you're like oh, do you give the new updated price target for bitcoin at 59 000 before it goes to 59 000.? So, like that's the other part of being in you know someone on youtube. It's like there's a great potential move up to 59 000 - maybe even 68. You know, should i you know, or even make a video about this right, so those are kind of things that go through a youtube thing, but um yeah it. We already talked about that earlier.

I think we could see. You know closer to 60s to 69 60, 7, 000. uh yeah i'll, take a peek at vygr um, but yeah anyways. So the person who asked about the market maybe a quick second ago it was uh.

We're looking for the spy or the nasdaq to at least retrace it 354 on the long side this morning, which it pretty much has holy holy folks. Bitcoin is at 55 000.. Well, almost, but but pretty much so that means we have 5 000 more dollars to go until we hit our price target of 60 000.. It might even happen today.

I don't know, but i don't really expect bitcoins going to move higher than about 55 200 within this current move, you're, seeing how much percent are you up on your account for the month? Not enough is a better way of putting it um. I am down point five. Two percent for the month might have looked it. That's one thing so cumulative um.

I am up 12.84 for the month. So if we look at, let's see periodical um, so my profit and loss comparison to the dow jones, the dow is down current to month. Down point two percent point: two: six percent. My p l is up two point: six four percent, so i'm outpacing the market by about two hundred percent theoretic.

Well, not really, but my account in comparison yeah anyway. So i'm up two point: six percent. The dow is down point two six percent, or am i looking at the spy i could be looking at the spy. Oh, that's the spy.

I think yeah that one was a spy, so the dow jones - oh that's, on a five-day period. Sorry, i wasn't looking at the month my apology, so for the month, i'm up 12.84 in comparison to the dow, which is down minus 2.98 uh in relation to the s p 500. My account's up 12.8 percent um and the dow is down negative 4.18 percent uh and then in relation to the nasdaq again mine's 12.8 and the nasdaq is down negative six. So um yeah, that's how i stand on a month-to-month basis for right now on the spy in all indexes um.

Why do you think about powell getting the military contracts um do you think is over. I don't know about that, and - and this mystery i'm not not really sure um. I don't think it's actually realistic to expect that long long term. No, no, i think i think i think day traders can beat the market yes, but i think it's.

I don't think you should expect to beat the market by insane amounts. I really don't. I think, if you expect to beat the markets on a minimal basis, you'd actually beat the market more often um, but no, i don't. I really don't think no, i know so.

In general, most day traders will not beat the market, that's a fact: guaranteed um, statistically speaking, um there are fews and there are slims that will um. But no, i don't particularly think that long term, hammering it out every single day as best as you can, that you'll be able, because i just think you'll end up acquiring losses one year because it's happened to me. I've had really good years and i've had some bad years and your good years end up outweighing some of the sorry. Your your bad ends up outweighing some of the good that you've done and then, when you look you for and i've said this, you know i i and i walked.

I went through this a couple months back. You know, even with my biggest years, where i'm in the hundreds of thousands right you look back at when you're, first starting and you've lost, and it all ends up washing to about you know um for me ended up coming out to like 35 grand on a Year-To-Year basis based over um well now, i'm 20 well 28 in december, so eight years now so um yeah i mean for what it's worth. That's the reality of it. You know i'd love to be able to sit here and tell you i can buy lambos, but i can't um, but i sure should love looking at this and i love i love it.

I do you know it's that's another thing too and that's. That's probably part of the the rush and the gambling, the addiction side of it um. You know, and oh my god, is he really? No, i'm it's truthful yeah. I mean there is a dopamine rush.

You get from trading, it's the same thing you get when you do cocaine drink and have sex. That is also proven. There's research done on that. So the same feeling you get from trading is the same feeling you would get from doing drugs and having sex, who doesn't like doing that.

So that being said, there is an addictive side of it um. So you could probably say that part of why i love looking at the stuff so much um but uh a reality. Is you know you learn a lot. You learn a lot about your economy.

You learn a lot about the world around you and so um and then, when you're sitting down at dinner with uh, you know people, you don't know they think you're insanely smart. When you tell them about the vix and the volatility and this and that and then they're like whoa you're, so cool, no i'm kidding but yeah, everyone thinks you're a genius, even though you're really not so that's also the benefit vygr uh yeah. So this is ripping uh. I have no idea what happened to the scanners.

Mine are just not working, so i i really don't know which is basically pointless of having them over there. So uh yeah, sorry vygr vygr does look uh pretty interesting kind of i mean good spike up, haven't really seen any momentum in volatility since the spike. So if you think about it right, you've had one two candles that were good and then everything's been kind of slow grinding. So it's my belief that you're not that it's bad.

This isn't bad. This is moving really good. Okay, i'm just saying you're not getting gigantic candles per se um, so i think you do continue following it on the long side, let me see you're not really overbought you broke through that i mean it doesn't really look like there's a ton of resistance, so the First things: first, i would look to see um, you know: did the market get ahead of itself this morning by a bit um so hold on right there? It's my assumption. You'll see this move, try to get up to uh 427 and then you'll have a pullback at 427.

um. If it's a big yeah so expect markets on i'm just going to say markets right now. Vyg our target is 4.27. You can see selling at 427..

Does it go through 427? I have no idea, but yes, 427 right now is the thing that i would feel comfortable saying the market wants to go to. I also 426 427 current long target slash resistance. 385. Current short downside target.

Slash support! That's that's! That's how i should just say everything: everything's, a long target and a resistance. Everything is a short target and a support so um pretty much from this red line when it broke out. It's targeting this red line when it gets to this red line. If it really doesn't want to keep going long, it's going to fall back down to this red line.

So that's what i mean is that's your risk right now, so your risk is down to this red line.