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Good morning, everybody yep volumes on we're good today was the first day that the stream started acting a little funny in a while all right good morning, uh already posted sort of a market update video. So if you had the time to watch that then you're probably already up to speed, if you didn't have the time to watch that, then you should just go watch that that would be good put a little bit of effort into that um uh yeah, hey, mr Montero how's it going um morning ben so interesting morning. Not really it's not interesting, interesting at all um, but we did get some numbers that came out. Let me good morning, good morning, um spy little little dip, curl little dippy dippy soon to be a rippy rippy.
You know in my, in my opinion, this just to me looks like a bull flying. Actually, let me grab uh. Let me grab some other stuff, i'm always like. I always think i'm prepared to come on the stream, but then i never am it's like.
No matter what i do in the morning, i'm always something. I always forget something. Okay, you know so i mean markets can do whatever they want. But in terms of pattern recognition i mean to me that's a bull flag right yeah, that's that's a potential bull flag.
Let's put it that way and then the stretch of the bull flag would be to that trend line um. So that's kind of one thing, i'm considering um, you know that's the other thing i mean. I i've seen plenty of like fomc days where it's like market trades, fine and then then it gets a little weak or sometimes just all day. It doesn't really work till um, 2, 30..
So i've seen all sorts of scenarios so um, just gon na be completely open-minded going into the day, i'm not going to be too biased or anything like that. Let me get my coffee. Let me get. Let me get my coffee, i agree i'll.
Let you get to um so for now, we'll just kind of read over a couple things uh by the way uh the stock. I should take this down and put my other stuff up. The stock bfri is currently moving some and looks pretty dece maybe see some continued momentum on that penny play for the day, um, so yeah i'll go from bottom up manufacturing index for november 31.9 versus 25 estimates prior is 30.9 export prices month over month. One percent versus point: five percent estimates prior 1.5 um.
I guess more importantly, here is probably what most people are looking into. Is retail sales so november retail sales point three percent versus point, eight percent, so a decline. Um estimate prior was 1.7 u.s, core retail sales. Um, so more or less retail sales are down a bit.
That's really the way you see that he was so bad yeah. I remember i remember i did do a video like that and uh. I think what i said was obviously inflation's, not transitory you're. Basically, an idiot if you think it is everything that they're saying in here is a disguise.
It's probably opposite, and here we are. I don't know how many months later and what do you know? Inflation is not transitory. They haven't stopped printed money they're, not doing anything to really benefit you um yeah yeah. I think that's about right, but um yeah i mean i i mean it wasn't me who told you that i just read that on i was going. I was, i was scanning through some articles on cnbc and cnn and fox and most of the mainstream media outlets, and they did a fantastic uh. Just a wonderful job at guiding me through the last couple months and telling me that there was going to be inflation. That inflation wasn't transitory. That's exactly what i remember reading in almost every mainstream media article, so uh cheers to them love them.
What is the beta you speak of, so beta is uh beta helps. You understand how much your stock will move in reference to the spy. So um, if you have a one to one beta, then your stock will typically go up about a dollar if the market goes up a dollar right. If you have a a two to one or a two beta and um, the market goes up one.
Then your stock usually will go up about two bucks uh share, so that's kind of what that is. It helps give you an idea as far as how your stock can perform in a way in relation to movement of the market and, of course, that isn't entirely accurate all the time, because you know stocks could you know, get more volatile at other times, because news Breaks or something like that, um right so like one day a beta could be like one and then the next day. It's like 1.2, because the previous day it had a really gigantic move because of some news break so then, theoretically, the beta is arguably on an outlier number, as opposed to um something that's normal, but we're getting way too far into that that doesn't even really matter. Uh, what are your levels for ethereum, so we're kind of at a buy level for ethereum um? You know these levels might not be the best here, but they should be all right.
This should be enough for now um. I haven't really looked at ethereum in a while. Actually we might not oh, i need to go to uh 30 days all right. So looking here, oh god, it looks like i got.
Ta go over here um, so i would say all right. So here's the reality of the situation. Nobody wants crypto to go down again right, like that's what that's what you hope for the reality is. I would much myself in regards to ethereum.
If you gave me an option of buying it now or buying it at the price of say, like 32 33 000, i, like 33 000, obviously because that's lower duh, but in terms of value or risk that i see being favorable the risk to reward seems obviously More favorable at a 33 000 price. So that's the way i see it, but on the same token, uh bitcoin is another one. That um did. I say forty three thousand.
I meant four thousand three hundred, my apologies for ethereum uh, there's a mistake or whatever i said there now on the flip side, bitcoin same kind of same kind of story. Nobody wants it to go down, but the reality is, i still don't really care to like. Try to even attempt gobbling up bitcoin unless it was touching 43, 381 or 43 230, which basically puts you at the last big break up for the market, which was the very, very heavy demand that everyone wanted right. So i mean this is this? Is the other reality is if bitcoin slides through this price, you will see all hell break loose everywhere. People will panic they're going to lose, their fintwit is going to be just just going absolute awol. That is what's going to happen. Okay and the reason being is because most of the retail environment myself included, did not buy that. I started buying that okay and i added some here.
Oh, you know my hand, i don't get whatever right, i you know, so that's where most people got in dips right and then most i would say most retail or, like you know, whatever you want to call it probably got in here and like here and they're. Just getting shredded to pieces, okay um in the next shred levels right there so like this is basically your last sign of hope. Right now, on bitcoin before it's gon na, probably do some other crazy that i'm not even planning for right now, because we'll just wait and see how that progresses so um yeah i mean i i could totally see. I i totally see bitcoin creeping down a little bit more.
We haven't quite yet reversed the downtrend. So that's another thing: that's like oh well, it could yeah, i mean yeah totally could whatever, but you know until we actually start breaking some previous swing, highs, uh or whatnot. The way i like and i'm gon na say that we're still down trending, i mean this is still going that way right so until we're crossing like i said, look at this chart right, there's some like strong levels here, so until we're up and above and holding I can't even consider we're up trending and what does that look like? Let me show you a great example is bbig okay, um and i will i'll send this picture the other day from our chat and here's um. Here we go this picture.
You see this picture. Let me zoom in for you too, okay, oh, that might be a little too much all right. So well that doesn't help you hold on. Oh god, this is oh geez, ops, oh, so you can see.
Bbig is starting a new uptrend literally point blank. It's starting a new uptrend there is, there was no. There was. I didn't even question it, starting a new uptrend why this picture uh? In my opinion, right i mean.
Obviously, you could always fail and do this than the other, but if you think about it right so market, whatever gap down downtrend cross downtrend for for one, you know if you just draw a price trend like that. Sorry, that's kind of off but, like you know like that, you cross right there right, but what else lines up with the price action? Downtrend our long term weekly, so without even drawing a downtrend. I just simply look and go okay, so we back up and over basically these two that one and that one and go okay, so we've crossed up and over so theoretically we're trying to uptrend right because in order to uptrend out of a downtrend, you need a Couple things right so you're going down and then you have a higher low and a break of a previous swing high and you can consider you're into an uptrend now. How much does that uptrend blow up follow through? That's always the million dollar question. But at this point this day you gap up and you broke up over the weekly and are the daily. So i mean even there you just you - can just look zinc up re-test, the breakout, which is also the weekly and up high or low mega swing high from the breakout kind of play. So you take out this and you're going to pop 360, 370s and so on so forth, so um. If i get out of this, the recommendation on this was basically - and you can see here - um yellow deviations 363 80s.
After that, we can discuss four fives um and then the other day i just you know i posted this bbig penny stock still holding decent, actually has a decent pattern still watching for follow through until it shits the bed. Okay, so basically we'll watch it till it. Shits the bet all right, and so i'm optimistic that we could see this little wedge flag break and if so, i would be targeting up the 350s 365 for right now: okay, yeah we're hoping by about the end of the month towards christmas area uh. We should have it on, but i would expect no longer than about a month on that uh yeah we're currently in the process of getting all these automatic ones, online, um, basically right now so yeah, that's all happening behind the scenes.
Um chris, it's been a while, since i studied it, you could be right about it being a rage of how it moves with the market. Not a dollar amount like delta would be. You know what chris you might be right, but i always understood it. I probably just understood it myself from a dollar perspective um when i was researching it myself, so maybe i got ta refresh it up on that, but from what i remember it was - and i could very well be wrong on that.
So yeah, but delta or beta, does help. You understand your stocks movement with market two in one way or the other for sure that check the 10-year weekly um. You know, let me check it and and that's the other thing too. It's like you can always find something somewhere to confirm your bias um for sure.
Oh, it's not going to work on that trend. I got to go over here. Is that it really damn i mean you know, that's the deal i mean that was there for sure. Like no doubt i mean it was right there, and so this is the other thing.
It's like i mean there's. There is a way to potentially to find out, which i wouldn't know, and it would just be me throwing out opinions of so far, but there might be a way to determine whether or not that's something that we should be using at all times but, like i Said there's just so many different levels and things that you can have to confirm your bias that no matter what you're eventually going to run into something that confirms that you know um. So i'm not going to say that the 10-year weekly is wrong by any means. I mean it tagged, it perfectly um, you know so anyways yeah and you know what ian it might be percentage. Like i said i might have. I might have forgotten. It's been a long time since i learned that um uh tl education group down um yeah. I mean that squeezed up and sold right down.
So for me now, that's just not not well i mean arguably it's not what i would typically be playing myself yeah i mean you, maybe get some counter-turn bounces or something but yeah i'm gon na pass. I mean you started your uptrend here and ripped up. Probably right into resistance and now kind of pulling back selling down amazon tesla continuation pete. So what i'm going to recommend to you and pretty much to everyone is that stocks do have their own characteristic, but with the current market environment we're in it, you really are just going to watch the market.
Now now that's kind of not entirely true, because the way stocks perform individually makes up the performance of the underlying index or etf for that matter. So it's not entirely true, but i would just be repeating it so anyways. The deal is if spy picks 466 up targets, so here here's a good way of saying it ready so like. Let's look at uh underneath a spy, i'm gon na do this just like really quick and then uh, we will so look at the spy.
So you see how the spy we have an up target potential that 466 area right. So like look at the way, this looks right so dip kind of curl targeting maybe that white line all right. Now, let's look at what tesla looks like oh damn it not the same chart. Let me do this.
Okay get get bring that ass over here all right. So now, when you look at the way, tesla looks: look over tesla's right down kind of curl white line. Just above okay, okay, look at nvidia, okay down little curl white line, just above okay amd down curl white line. Just above i don't know yeah i mean you get the point right.
So a lot of those stocks are they're. The same thing same pattern, same setup, dip bounce targeting back up with market, so you're just looking yeah so that that that's yeah yeah, so some of them are a lot of them, are below the mean. So we might be just kind of doing a counter trend. Long bounce back, retest the mean pricing for a lot of these plays, and if that happens, you know we should see the oh man, the spy and uh the mark gets kind of coming back up too.
All right, i kind of got to get my charts all ready for today. So just give me a sec, i can just make sure i'm i'm good so um i wan na. You know i'll mention some stocks throughout the day. Probably um.
Try my best to you, know it's: it is hard to pay attention to six million things stream and talk about it all the time. So i got ta um, uh, um, okay, wow, all right, so we're gon na bring up. I mean obviously just keep up mainly uh spy right now, uh, sp and qqq. For now, so it should be. Um should be an interesting day, lcid starting to roll down right now. Hmm do so: hmm, okay, it must be cold in the midwest. I don't know. I just went in the beanie mood yeah, it's definitely getting cold here.
Amc kind of creeping up right now currently do uh all right guys. Um do um, well markets kind of kick-starting a little bit on the up, but really nothing too crazy. There, i'm this yeah! I'm seeing some plays in the market kind of getting knocked down right now, all right, so so far markets just kind of running down so yeah i mean it just it's it's an fmc day, but i mean if the market, you know kind of starts, taking all These lows, i think we might target down to about that 385.50 for now amc just pulled back down to a small support level. Uh yeah yeah i mean amc - could very well do like a little bounce.
There, you, ah tesla, holding up okay. Twitter did a little break it down. Bfra8 yeah, i was singing bfr. I could see obviously some some movement today, lcid did a pretty nasty dip got bought for the most part right back up, yeah so far, just kind of sitting back watching this market.
So far you so mark it with a little push back up on the cues. It looks like nvidia tesla a couple stocks kind of a little pop there. So arguably, that's what kind of drew that market up some uh tesla jumping pretty good there, starting to see some bullish movement on those guys for a little bit all right there. Yet i mean you're still seeing some great moves on tesla and a couple plays, but um i mean market's still just kind of hanging out so um yeah i mean the spy itself is creeping lower.
The nasdaq, ironically, is holding up, which is kind of odd, but you know yeah, i mean still no no nothing's for me right now i mean just kind of hang out twitter, arguably going through a little dip, so i've been over yeah. I mean we're getting this slow creep down from the spy here. Does not look amazing, so i'm wondering if the nasdaq's gon na end up following suit there, a little bit right now. The dow's, currently kind of getting pushed down do all right.
So again, if markets do start coming down below the low of day, that's where i assume you'll see the the queues snap closer to 385. You know 49s or whatnot um, i mean we're still, basically holding you know, just just bailey. It's a lot of what's happening. Where you're seeing tesla perform pretty decent, you know videos up pretty decent um.
Ironically, the spy pulled back more than the q's did, but that's probably just because the counter trend bouncing we're getting under a lot of those stocks right now. So hmm, that is interesting, see part of me feels like that spy is almost gon na like bounce and it's gon na prevent the cues from actually getting taken out here so kind of just waiting on the cues. Currently, i'm gon na add a small position there on the q's down and see if we end up taking out that low a little bit, not the best entry but kind of just a little bit of a fugazi morning here. So you can see the spy kind of getting dip bought there a little bit see that's what i didn't like that's. What i was kind of worried about was like. Maybe the spy would end up kind of holding, but yeah, let's see, will not let this place squeeze me up since it's such a low entry and there's a lot of buyers coming in right on that dip there. It goes yeah, someone closed that there was just too many buyers that was a bad entry. You can see, we came down right to the low and just buying stepped in immediately, so i was just a bad player on my part yeah.
Maybe maybe we just get like kind of a bag day for the time being um i mean you got lcid just kind of going back and forth sort of chopping around tesla, you know still kind of on an up move. You can see. Tesla may be getting to 979's today see that's why i need to short that pop instead of that low, but kind of just didn't do my job so good today, uh so on this move down with the q's, i think max you could look for at most. Would be that 385 41 still so, assuming that's, you know good sell-off, that's where that's gon na probably go to ah yeah bad entry.
Today myself, but you know can't always be perfect. I guess: do qqq's starting to get a little a little knocked there again. That 385 550 max down there, i think now we definitely could be looking is it? Is it going to work that way, though, potential bounces off of lcid almost looks like that's, got a bearish move, stepping up yeah, i would say, but down to that 385 550s. Max might see a little bounce there, though um.
So arguably that's going to be something. Maybe we look for is a little. It could be risky too. I mean the market could really just fall apart through that 385 fifties um, but for now we just look down at 385 550 and then probably consider it to be a long there, long, scalp, minimum so definitely a red day for me so far, because that first Is dumb terrible entry? You know, so that was just no way.
No! No bueno should have just sold into the moving averages. Like you know, the smart person does um so right now kind of tracking the volume to see what our volume looks like as we approach our level all right. So now, um yeah, i mean you're, still same thing kind of tracking down to there um. But you know part of me, i don't know part of me feels like it should do some sort of counter trend bounce there.
I can't say i'm like that optimistic about trading the counter long at level, though okay, so there's some buyers stepping back in there, and this could very well be where you get squeezed back up some yeah there. It goes okay, again, probably not going to be the easiest day, all said and done for some um, not for me already so still in the red didn't take the long because we weren't directly on my level um. So i'm just sitting. Ah, no, i don't even no, i don't stream to twitch. Currently hmm finally find me uh nothing. There yeah. We definitely got a portion of this market uh trying to beat the market down currently um. All right i mean you can still see some people pushing that market down trying to get that 389 or 385 550.
Whatever it is, i mean you really don't want to see the market below that 385.50, or else you could be looking at. You know a bigger, bigger down move for sure that was definitely a bigger, buy candle or buy volume candle shall i say there uh so yeah i mean you can probably scalp up along. I mean maybe back into your 500 moving average there. It's a possibility.
It's like the market's trying to bottom just before that, 385 52, almost maybe grind back into the moving averages before trying it again. Something like that, but you know we'll see yeah, that's the way that dave's feeling like isn't it well, you know what do you expect on an fomc day too? You know um, so lcid is starting to kind of come back up on the day. Looking a little better than what it was earlier this morning, nvidia is starting to roll over here all right. There goes your rollover almost down to 385.54.
I mean you really did not want to see that get taken out today, um. So there goes the scalp long off that bottom. For now at least perfect good move, pink all right on time, so not an easy trading day. For me, you know it just wasn't one of those days where i read it very easily myself, so just chilling at a loss of like 160 bucks, which so still a big long day ahead of us um just now, starting to bounce up a bit big old, Shake candle squeeze everybody back up some more probably, that seems like a logical thing to try to do um.
You know still kind of tracking looking at lcid for right now i kind of looked at this amc, but no that's just not what i'm kind of into um yeah yeah yeah market doing what it typically would do, but i mean nonetheless right markets picked downside target Today i just didn't trade as effectively as i would have liked to, but i mean there it is downside target for the day, one of them that is lcid just popped up through the weekly trend. There, arguably a little interesting all right. So there goes your long move, not in anything right now, just kind of sitting back. You know trading pretty much nothing great.
Today, myself, ami kron d, nut, that's good good, stuff, good stuff. So the question is: does amc actually rip down here through that? That seems kind of interesting um amc is sitting right on this 2360s level. Um in the event, you see amc through the 2367s. Arguably, you could see it kind of shake down again um, but as long as amc is maintaining above that, you should be okay for the day wow, just okay in the immediate, maybe if you're, watching that russell 2000 still struggling, though russell 2000 is kind of creeping. A little bit on the day to the downside, all right, watching amc below the 2370s again, if amc can crack 2370s, i think we can see a little bit of weakness there we'll see it's been holding 2367. Pretty good. Lcid is moving pretty well. The russell 2000.
Isn't really bouncing right now, so it's kind of helping keep amc down, but in the event the russell 2 starts to bounce. I don't think you'll get the 2367 crack on amc. It's an fyi russell 2000, still creeping a little lower amc still just chilling at about 23.68. That was a previous little demand spot before it popped up so through this can shift momentum down russell 2000, cracked a little bit more there on the downside, just an fyi.
So kind of continuing that down pressure some if we get a full on snap to the downside, actually taking out lows on amc, you would probably target down to like 22.88 or so 23s. I don't have any support for the russell 2000 until about you know. 2131. 2001 28 areas either so we'll see, if maybe it gets there too uh amc right at its low a day again through that definitely going to see some weakness.
I think game stop rolling over a little bit too. Currently tesla going down some more. The queues are rolling, slightly um spy's kind of rolling a little shindig magu, as well. Almost through the lows on amc now, lcid pull back hold over weekly, currently that's kind of a good sign if you're on a long took some profit on my uh.
My bear play with amc just to lock some now i'm going to leave a runner see if we can push it down a little further again. Downside 2280 is max for me right now. Realistically, a 23 target seems like a more responsible play. Russell 2000 still continuing down that's going to help the progression of amc down a little bit, but again anything can happen.
So you know just be mindful just got into the green. It wasn't going to keep me down for forever, so i play with amc, has done well enough. Put me back in the green um for the day, so um the day is mine to screw up from this point forward. Tesla is getting absolutely well.
It's getting smacked. All right, so you know this is a situation where the market cues and the spy went down to their first down target. Now you you really, i mean, in my opinion, you're not going to get like see a lot of bearishness on that until you snap through that which you know could very well happen to. But you know our first initial plan for uh, for the queues triple queues was down to uh.
You know 385.50, almost it tagged to the penny. All right. There goes amc, snapping lows. Volatility has just picked up, so the implied volatility. If you're trading options has been juiced now, that's always a logical time to take some money off the table, because if you're trading options, directionally you're, basically trading premiums and premiums get juiced to the tits. When volatility goes up, so you know it's always a you know. Always a logical thing to take a little on on a volatility drop too, so just be mindful of that yeah. So let me show you on the charts for amc.
This is kind of what it looked like. So you can see, amc was creeping, creeping, creeping, creeping creeping and we had the 2367 level there we snapped it took out lows running down next thing i have is down to like 2280, so unless the russell 2000 decides to kind of bottom here and do something I would expect amc will continue to creep down to 2290s and yeah. It's kind of my thought, you know anything can happen right and the russell 2 is starting to kind of get bought up. So if this keeps diverging that of the russell 2, while the russell 2 is going up, i really like that.
So russell 2 is on a nice five-minute, bounce or whatever one minute. Bounce and amc is still getting. You know smacked to the downside. So that's very good um going to uh going to take a little off there on that volatility drop.
That puts my um. I play it 20 percent. So if we can creep her down to 22 85s 23s, we might hit a 30 to a 40 play, but definitely covering some there, only holding a smidge or magoo. At this point you know a little smidgy smidge alrighty, so that gets me uh.
It gets me keeps me definitely in the green for the day. So that's good again. It's just uh, it's my day to give back. If i want to at this point, i could shut my computer down wake up tomorrow and the account will be going up so um, we'll just kind of sit back and we've still got a long day.
Um anything could happen. Your grandma could show up and straight bang out a 200 put contract play on the market and just be a millionaire. Today, all right there goes amc, 23s or well. 23.
12S. Again, i thought the logical target was 23, but you know volatility's high selling volume is pretty decent. Maybe we can trickle her down to 22.87 there's a nice little cover pop. Someone definitely want to take some profit someone's taking some pravis.
That's! Okay! That's all good um! You know, but job well done guys job well done russell 2 still creeping down. So i kind of think even this candle is going to get given back here on amc, regardless of the little pop or magoo that it just did russell two into new lows. Let's watch this amc candle get got um. I i really wasn't planning for a move below 20 to 90s 2280s.
But if that happens, that would be epic and will go to 22-19 um, which i mean sure maybe, but i'm not gon na play for that. For now it's a little a little outside my uh reality for right now hold on one. Second, i haven't even oh. My thing has been full screen, so i'm like where's everyone's, oh i'm on like this. Oh, it's because i have that's why it's because i'm like got a different screen up now. I got that amc going, so i will i'll close these amc contracts um if amc is back and sustaining above 23.75, otherwise i'll be on the downside for it for right now, um lcid kind of holding like slight cup cup and handle pattern over its weekly kind Of slightly interesting, ish, uh you're, starting to see amc, popular uh, the market popping a little bit kind of creeping up, okay, so yeah, i'm in the green uh, not a big day uh, because i had a battle back. You know a little bit so in terms of that you know some poor execution starts off the day. Bad then logical, trading and smart approach gets the day back green um.
So this would be a good moment to collect my thoughts. All right, amc, uh still trickling a little bit. I mean russell 2 - is still down some no bounce there. Yet so, and you can see how choppy that q, the queues are trading there, so yeah, and you know what the spy's doing so.
You know you already know you know you, you know you know and then that's it. You know that you know that i know what yeah you know that i know that you know that you haven't hit that like button, yet all right, so something you can watch for like amc, if you're like. Oh, i don't know when to cover them, and you know, like you know something that's kind of getting a little a little squeezy um. You know if they take out this high 2343 they're to pop it back to about 23.67.
So that's just the position you're in it's like do you just hold the runner for the game? Do you cut the runner? If you always cut the runner, then you never get a runner and it's just basically the endless battle that you're going to play with yourself. As a trader, so again i cut most of my trade down there towards 23., i'm pretty much all out. The only thing i have now is just one contract to run if it wants, so it can't really crush me. Can't really do anything, and so you know the idea is.
If we pop right back up to 2368, then i would assume the immediate downtrend for now is uh subsided, and you know we're gon na it's gon na. If it's gon na continue back down it's, it would take a long time at that point you know, so you get the point uh we haven't mentioned anything on paypal today, no, i have not seen anything. Oh there, we go at 9. 58.
when's. 9. 58. 9.
58. 9. 58. 9.
50.. When the, when did that happen, that did not happen at 9. 58. 9.
50.. Did it get someone loaded 9.58 at 9, 58 somebody did load, i mean they loaded uh about 500 000 in premium, on the put which i mean. If you were doing 386 500 premium, i mean you snap below 386, at 9, 58 958. It was there, so they got it snapped it there and that was it yeah, so they got their playing the money.
Um nobody's done anything on the spy today. Excuse me yeah ain't. Nobody done nada, not a ting on a ting on a spot um. No, i haven't really stopped. I just been focusing on the markets really trying to dial this in, because you know, generally speaking, if you can predict the markets on a day-to-day basis where and what they should do, then it gives you a good representation of how all your other stocks can trade. So that's one thing: i've been really just trying to dial this last couple weeks: um um, yeah, that's that's about it, but no! No! I just mainly been focusing on these. Lately i mean. Can you blame me? I mean that was our target today, so yeah a good move on lcid.
So far there goes amc. So if we pull up amc, uh look at what's happened, ready so didn't we just say that the pop squeeze will just basically revert right back up to um. That trend line so now that you've gotten up and over that the bulls are going to want to sustain that. So as long as one second yeah, let's say if the market starts holding above that trend and close and russell 2000 starting to pop a little bit.
So you can see we pushed back to it, we're right below it, with the red candle, so you'd have to maintain below to feel comfortable holding, or else you can get caught in the next volatility pop which i'm not going to all right. So i'm gon na close there just makes logical sense to me russell two's, balancing we reclaimed our first trigger one of our trigger short levels and uh. Whatever you know, i don't care if it goes up or goes down, it doesn't really bother me. So that's kind of like that max loss area for me and you can see how that works right like market took you back right to somebody's max loss right and we you know that was a short location and there you go hold your trade too long.
You get screwed market will take all your money again right. So that's why you're always going to hear people preach. Take money on the way down, take money on the way down, because if you don't the markets, reverse they're, going to reverse back. Remember the saying the squeeze always returns to where it got squeezed right.
So it's the concept, it's like. Basically, wherever a bunch of people short, it's eventually probably going to go back to there and reverse all the gains right and where everybody gets long. A lot of times, you'll reverse right back to that and take out your your long, profit too, i'm gon na buy christmas, presents dude struggling because each day what happens is i stop trading, and then i review a bunch of stuff and then i just get addicted To looking at charts for like 17 hours - and i don't buy anybody christmas presents and then it's only like a couple days away and it's like now, you got ta, go to the mall and fight. You know 25 16 year old girls to get to a store.
If you do that well, then you have to go to the mall, because you can't order it because you're an idiot, you procrastinate all right, um, let's see what um yeah i mean, i'm still not. I haven't really gotten anything that i can consider confidently unusual on the markets today, other than a uh, basically other than the old well 90 put or what 386 put on the market. That's. The only thing unusual i got lcid is one stock. That seems to be moving pretty juicy that i have in front of my face, which you know like i i didn't say it to you today, but max target. Maybe even overnight today would have been. You know, 4247's area um, so just uh. Keep that in mind.
Um also, it would be a good idea if we start measuring the range from today. So um, let me take a look at sort of a one hour short. I mean really, though, what's the reality? Oh look at that see. Oh, what am i talking about? That was a breakdown, it's also a short entry, uh retest.
But then again that was a strong bounce, but that is a short entry. Re-Test could have done that, but yeah. If you see uh, if you see lcid up about 42 42 50s um, you know just make sure to give ricky gutierrez some props and it was uh. That's where i learned it.
What are your two moving averages? Uh? Those are 150 uh because it kind of you know i don't always use in the way. I should because you know sometimes a little sally, but you know ideally it's to be used as your intraday one minute. You know, i think they do a pretty good job at performing an intraday one minute um, you know moving average. You know trend to follow right, like at the open.
You know it's kind of hitting them and all right we break down, and you see candle pops to about there and back down and then you can see the market goes through kind of a breather. We tagged the low grind up kind of hit the moving averages again and down. So this is generally for me and my partner brandon, going to be an intraday moving average trend system that you know will follow and a lot of times we won't. We don't think that the intraday trend is up or has changed here until we're crossing all of those and holding above.
So that could be one way we visualize an uptrend. Downtrend fashion is like okay, so we crack below. Can we sustain above no rips down, reject move into rolling so until it's like up and holding, we don't really consider us to be in an uptrend right, and you will find that like like what you need for an uptrend. Is you know a high or low previous swing high break? So if you need - and so if we're in a downtrend today and then we're going to go into an uptrend, you need a higher low and then you need an uh, a break of a previous swing.
High, so if we kind of do that, we have uptrend, you know, arguably whatever and then it starts to go up right and then you get a break of a previous swing high, which is also right in line with your moving averages. So it's like you break the previous swing high and you got to move so you're, not sustaining above like this right. You are going like this higher lows. Break of previous swing high same location as moving average resistance trend does not sustain so arguably now, that's just another lower high in that setup. So at this point and now think to yourself like, where does this top line up with go left the very uh finite supply level for the day that everyone wanted to short at right before the market got yapped? So it's like this is probably the previous swing high, that if we can sustain, we might be able to argue, send us into a move like that right and then, if you look at that previous swing high, where does that previous swing high line up with? Well? This top and just above the 100 moving average. So if you were to use that and go okay, if market and prices above the 100 and these two moving averages on the intraday one minute, we might be into a short-term uptrend sort of concept which are which just right lines up with a very big supply. Candle that shook the market down, so it's like okay, everyone's selling there so yeah going above that yeah. Obviously you might be taking out some sellers, and so it's just it just all aligns right there right so um, you know, that's the concept trend is your friend.
So moving into them, don't try breaking it. You know try selling into it and bringing the markets down and then, if you think about it right, if you think about how the market's situated, where are our probability levels right, our probability levels are all the way up. Here or one right there, so if you're thinking about where the market's probably going to go, do you think it's probably going to go all the way to there or just to there all right? So that's why i said this is going to be. Maybe in that video a high probability level for the day, because it's not you know 36 000 away - it's you know it's only three dollars down or whatever.
So definitely within the range of the market. Um totally makes sense for us to try to hit that probability area further, so um yeah thumbs up my dudes nxtd, ripping oh can't hurt to take a look at it. Let's see what's up the nxt magoo uh doing the opposite: yeah i mean it's ripping faces down, um for sure. No doubt no doubt, and let's see why i'm assuming it's well, i don't actually know yet, let's see nothing there.
So i'm assuming you hit a four hour, didn't hit a four hour, hmm in testing so you're just going previously. You got close to that, but not that that's sort of just random right now, yeah see like i kind of played this. You know i got ta say i didn't do my my best job. I kind of this is a um.
This was a your trigger short, a trigger short level right. We held the bounce got below, so that is a retest of the breakdown. So that's why people are selling into that, and that was actually a good uh level to take a trade sell into for the time being right, um as it stands now, theoretically, you could have done a little short rejection, trade there, but anyways that's beyond i'll, be On the point, so i'm very upset you got rid of stash. It will only take me seconds to grow back um. I really don't use finviz to screen for setups um, as of as of right now, no all right at 10. 30. This is okay who? Why, though, that's i don't know who's doing that who's doing that? Okay, so that's a cross! That's a 12 17 boy! 10. 30..
It just doesn't seem like a good play. I don't know i got yeah, no, that's! Probably just a hedge play or some yeah, i don't trust that i still got nothing unusual on the spy today unless they're, sifting, all the or any you know what it makes sense, today's a fed meeting day um. So i'm really not surprised. I'm not seeing anything unusual coming in on the uh on the chains here today on the q's and on the spy um we actually well yeah um, you know uh.
The first unusual um thing i saw on put chains today for the queues was at 9 58. Targeting 386. remember: our target pre-market was 385.50. It wasn't until 9 58 that someone put in 447 thousand dollars in premium short the queues targeting 386..
So it's almost like. Well, i mean if i was the one, putting a half a mil down on the market today. Um - and i didn't do it until 9 58. to me - that seems like the markets were a little uncertain on whether or not we could for sure tag that that 385 50s level um you know, maybe we thought we would go to upside first, so i think It took till about 9 58 till at least someone with some serious dough was like okay, we're gon na tag 385.50.
So i'm not really disappointed in my performance about hopping on the train a little late wrong entry, not seeing it for what it was earlier today and taking the confidence on it, because even someone with 500 000 didn't feel good about until 9, 58. So um. I can't really discredit myself too hard, given what i'm seeing there so i'll. Pat myself on the back.
You did okay, today kiddo um, so so yeah good uh. Then i saw uh 10 30. We had a cross play of um 203 000 premium, but i think that's just a hedge play, so i don't really think that gives us direction um. So still just chilling.
Oh my tesla, oh my, oh, i got ta. I actually have to like uh. Do something for a second so give me a give me a shot. Hmm, i mean i got it.
I mean i'm just so happy. I mean that's that it's taken me a long time to get to this point. So i'm really happy about that targets today. If the market goes long use spy 460 650, if markets go bare, use, a qqq target 3d545 use the spy target to time the top of the queue for the day and use the qqq down target to time the bottom of the dip on the spy.
Today, all right, so, if you think about it, uh qqq target down what do we mean so right? It's like all right, um target down 345 cues, 385 45. We hit 385.50 so off by five cents. My apologies um and then use the q 385 45. As the time uh is your how you time the dip in this in the spine, close buddy so close, i really hope that one day this is my goal and uh we're not there yet, but i don't give up until i get there and so the idea For me is: is one day you see this guy here this guy, throwing in 447 thousand dollars targeting 386 one day, that's going to be me and other people are going to look at these chains and go oh that guy threw in 200k targeting 386. So i'm hoping that one day, i'm the whale calling the market and you guys are playing your confidence off of some of my plays that's a long goal. That's a big goal, but uh yeah. That's what i want isig done for day. Let's check it for mr lawrence, very good move, got ta, say splendid, splendid move, yeah, nice little neg three or a positive three to bounce back to four dav.
How is juicy move good job lawrence um, so i mean yeah people trade, the same stocks every day. I mean there's nothing wrong with that. You just kind of get used to how the same stocks you know essentially moving over and over and over and over um, but we are starting to get some volatility juicing. You know in some of these plays so that was a spike up to our target.
I don't know. Maybe we didn't know that lcid still chilling, no, probably today bbig. So that's given back right now, um mike dobbs, okay, so you want nvidia. Let me just get my chart up here um, so you took nvidia yeah, so you're, basically ooh levels a little level, so yeah you're.
Basically so you took it off the weekly mean approaching four hour. I mean yeah. That was basically that was basically a range target for the day um you know, so i think i think i even mentioned that today. So, let's see all right, nvidia long targets - 292.50, all right, um, nvidia dip longs - can start at 280, 28., so dip long's.
280. 28 targets. 292.50. So what did i say? 280? What the hell! I say: why do i have such a bad memory? It's because there's just too many digits going on in my head.
280. 28. 290. 250..
So this is 280 60, so levels may have updated slightly, but 280 60 targets 290. 250.. So i think you can actually see your nvidia play up to 290 250.. Once you get to 290 250.
You kind of hope some some idiots come in and try to juice that puppy up for you above 292. and so we'll walk through this one, i'm not in any trades, i'm kind of chilling having a good time working and hanging out um. You know so we'll we'll watch this, and so what i would say to you is if, if you get nvidia's through this high into two ninety one eighties, two ninety two fifties uh crossing that trend on the four hour, and then you start to see these uh. These green volatility spikes coming in that's probably some retail traders late to the party and you should start selling into that.
So, let's see, if we get that or you know it could be shorts covering. But what i'm saying is you know if you're, if you're, trying to get long through this, which you know, there's always a play here there, but you know, i think, that's you're, arguably slightly higher risk trying to do that. So this is already a good profit. Take level i'm just saying like if you're trying to go the full move, you're going to 292.50 right, you may not want to hold full size for that, but you know oh yeah sure for sure you know no problem, no problem now remember from earlier when we Were talking about the market and we're like hey? Oh no, it's not on this chart, but there it is. You remember talking about how like tesla and video they're all the same pattern. You know kind of dips looking to go back to means today so yeah that pretty much happened. So you know you pretty much. Did your long move for the day on nvidia right if you're long nvidia it did it's long move.
You should be happy cheerful and you for mickey apple bobby t, what's up brother, what was what's up my dude um still not getting anything uh too crazy. Oh my gosh yeah, it's about to be a 2 a 2 30 fomc, whatever sort of day. You know you know how it goes. Oh, by the way i will not be online streaming tomorrow, got ta go somewhere well going somewhere uh with my dad tomorrow morning, so um, probably gon na, have some update videos going out things on wherever you guys follow me, but i'll definitely post a video i'll.
Probably pretty much give everything the whole rundown like. I normally do on the market before i head out for the day with him um but yeah tomorrow, no stream, just gon na be posting. Probably a couple videos in the morning uh giving you guys the rundown um and that's about it uh lately most no. I didn't stop well yeah for the time being, i'm not because i'm working on some other things that you can see here, um what yeah so um yeah.
That's! That's how today all right 1040s! There we go! That's something 1040s, we're getting! That probably already happened. Quite a bit ago, didn't it no so 1040s right here, someone is saying wrong thing: okay, someone is calling markets up. We got uh about a total of eight hundred close to nine hundred thousand premium collin markets on queues to 393 to 390. um and those expire.
Today so someone's got a million on the line and they think markets can go 393.93 all right. So that would be you know here to here and remember: our spy target is uh. You remember our spy target for the day is, if i can get my together, our spy target max is 467. So again, if the market on the spy went to 467, that would probably end up putting the queue somewhere around a 390 393 which again given the fomc meeting.
That basically means that dude, whoever bought that those plays, is basically saying. Whatever comes of this fomc meeting were going gon na. Take the markets to 393.93 is what he's saying um. Let me check here still nothing myself coming through on the spy so yeah. So you know my idea was to be bearish here today and bullish off that level so like when we got here. I did a little scalp trade. I didn't really. I didn't say i mean that was a quick one.
I mean you had this candle down and then one spike back up, it's just that one seemed kind of like sketch, so i did a scalp on that and it worked almost instantly right. I was like look at right. Long basically got long into this wick down into that and then, like three seconds later, candle shot up and the next candle was just up. So it's like you know, just it just happened like that um.
What was the unusual play? So the only thing unusually seen on the qs was about 500 000 targeting 386, and now we got about almost a million targeting 393.93 for the day um you know so, arguably, if you wanted, you could just throw in you know a 393.93 for fun, but again That that's not how you do things right. You know it doesn't guarantee that that dude buying all that stuff makes the mark that the market is going to guarantee. Go there right, um, you know the reality is here um you have created a higher low off that dip right, so you've done that, but until you really get through all of this you're, not you're, not uptrending right, you are still down you're still in sort of A down market now the market can obviously reverse, come up and break that. Yes, that can all happen right very well, so you know in this instance right, given the moving averages right, this would be a situation where the market has crossed over intraday, and so you know if this is a true trending day, and this is going to keep Working then a lot of times you'll see dips kind of get bought into those moving average and try to grind that market up.
That's definitely something you can see and let's check on the spy really quickly spy dip, holding, not bad at all. That's pretty juicy! My guys pretty juicy mate well, tesla is just just just getting bagged. Oh man, look at amc slide, see that that's where i failed today is we covered. We were just early right.
We saw the market before most is pretty much all.
Sytek .
Beta has a baseline of 1 and is based off of the volatility of the market. So if a stock has a beta of 1.5 it is 50% more volatile than the market. .5 would be 50% less volatile than the market.