Well, hello: there welcome back to another market, closing live stream in case you're, wondering why my hair is crazy. It's because i went for a crazy ride in a go-cart, an amazing go-kart, a go-kart that i highly love and that you can check out by going to medcavin.com cart, you can check that out with a k or a c. It doesn't matter. Matt kevin dot.

Com, cart. In the meantime, we have some things to talk about not carte we're going to talk about the stock market, and why is this going crazy? But the question like we had this morning is: will it last and is it time to start paying down some margin? I think the answer to that is yes. The stock doc says, thanks to this uh here, prescription pad, it says, pay off margin, you better pay off margin. This is why we have a prescription for getting out of margin.

Okay, moving on so dow jones uh falling uh, mostly uh, on a roller coaster. During the day, but uh down, uh 0.13, you got the s. P. 500, barely left over in the green uh, 0.05 nasdaq up 0.4, so tech again outperforming.

But then again today, really it's a russell. 2000! That's outperforming russell 2000 up 2.44. This one's been lagging a little bit a little bit behind the curve. Uh.

Now we're coming back a bit volatility up about two percent today, not that big of a deal we do have some red, though we've got dwack down: 9.96 voyager digital down 8.22 big digital assets. Down 7.48 you've got zillow down 6.23 as it wants to sell a batch of homes still trying to get uh details out of this, but uh uh. That's not a good good sign for zillow uh, not not good at all, it'd be very stupid to sell a batch of homes zillow, but we'll see. If what else we can research here on on zillow in a moment, etsy and affirm uh over here getting uh getting beat up a little bit after those amazon numbers, still sort of the same news here, because there's no real individual news on amazon or sorry on Etsy just uh potential disappointing forecasts on retail sales, which is surprising because there is so much enthusiasm for uh for spending right now and spending is certainly up all right.

So then we've got a holy moly. Google down two point: seven: eight percent! That's a lot! Uh! That's a big weight on the indices. That's uh! That's a big old oof! All right! No prey! We've got lj zulu! Oh, it's not working! Lj, zulu! Victor! Today, no no uh prey! Okay! Let's go get that terminal going there. We go okay, so uh! Then we've got dogecoin down about three percent shocked on google, dropping that much adobe's down 1.8 uh.

We've got fun wares up there down with dwack. Let's see yeah amazon, 1.72 cloudflare uh down one percent, lucid lucid, was up crazy in the pre-market, like eight percent. In the pre-market thing, just tanked, like nine percent today, it's only down point seven, seven right now, but still i mean compared to the pre-market. It was insane.

Let's look at the runners today. On the runner side, we got voozi up 26 percent, a lot of enthusiasm for those uh holographic wear goggles, i'm not a big fan of the woozy goggles i purchased them. I tried them, their customer service is lacking, the product is marginal at best uh and look. I my heart goes out to the people who work for vuci.

I don't think it's their fault, uh! It's! You know it's! It's it's new technology, it's uh in development. You know so uh anyway, so fi, tac uh as uh. Well, so fine up twelve point. Five.

Nine percent really good run here on so far. Mata poured up nine point: two five amazing uh big big print attendees here holy crap tesla's up 7.3. I didn't know it went that high. Oh, my gosh! Last i checked it was like four holy smokes.

Look at that tesla run. This is in freaking sanity. That's crazy that that is that is some cookie for cocoa puff stuff right here: um, wow wow, but anyway, uh, okay, so yeah tesla's down, i'm sorry, tesla's up seven, something percent! Here this is, and i don't even understand the volatility on this - has got to be through the roof right now. I'm will check hold on.

Let's look specifically at tesla volatility, tess tesla, tesla search all right. What do we got? Tesla individual company news? No, we don't need company news, we need tesla historic volatility graph, please, okay, here we go uh. Oh my lord yeah we are at. We are twice the 100-day average of volatility, we're 50 higher than the 30 day of volatility.

I mean this is just this. Is its volatility is staying insanely high right now? I'm curious. I usually don't do this, but i would be very curious to see what cell puts are like because i bet you they're a bunch of people, betting against tesla right now, uh 41. Bucks 41 bucks for a four day: 41 divided by 1200, that's 3.4, plus that's pretty juicy 3.4, basically for uh for a four day put wow wow we've skew.

Let me see uh, let's go 12.50 and 4 55, okay, so 67! Let me go over here there. We go, stop it weeble you're messing me up a weeble. Yours is growing with me. I don't like it.

Oh weeble, whatever weeble tends to be a little disappointing, come on weeble load me. Some puts just want to load anything, that's whatever, whatever we'll try again, but i'm only gon na try one more time all right here. We go all right, um curious! So if i go over here, 1150 sell puts for next week, you're getting 39 bucks you're still getting that. What are you getting you're getting 1150 divided by 39.15? Oh sorry, the other way around 39.15 divided by 1150 uh 3.4, plus the insulation of really you're.

Getting a blanket of like 45 - that's nice selling puts right now is juicy, especially if you wanted to increase your your position in tesla and you think, there's a catalyst for it to potentially correct down. These are not horrible right now, see like if i were gon na sign up to 10 of these, the problem is the collateral requirements are massive right. I mean this. This is going to take a million dollars uh.

You know 1.1 million dollars of collateral to make this happen. If i go to 1200 for next week, i get 61 grand, i mean, that's like buying them for 1140. These shares, which makes sense - and if i go to 11 50 - that's like getting him for 11. 10 uh say you go down to 1100 for giggles and then out to december 60, still a 60 discount.

That gets me the shares for 10 40. and that's a 60 000 credit for december uh, which is only six weeks away. Folks, that's crazy! That's not! This is not horrible. I don't necessarily want to tie up the collateral, but it's not horrible.

I don't put thought into that lemonade. Finally, moving a little bit uh insurtech finally running a little bit before earnings insurtech has been in the toilet. It has been not good. All insurtech has just been getting smoked: root, lemonade, hippo, it's it's just the industry, which is fine, because things go in cycles, uh that no no insurtech.

Today, though, reporting we have simon property group, chegg clorox that reports today, nothing uh super duper exciting. That's yeah! That's after the close, okay, let's see here by the way, we're gon na have a special guest come on right after the market closes, so that'll be fun uh, which reminds me i need to send them the link. That's all right, we'll get that done all right. So uh lemonade and sure this is insane this tesla rally into the clothes here just absolutely insane: matterport ten percent crazy uh, like i said the market's just going mad but uh zillow, getting smoked, six and a half percent.

I wonder where redfin is red fin redfin's? Actually up slightly um, that is interesting, redfin's up, basically on the news that zillow's suffering, which kind of makes sense like if you wanted to diversify some of your tech holdings a little bit uh. You know, and you wanted to get exposed to real estate without being in like reits. You know, probably i mean, but then again is, does zillow become when does zillow become a buy the dip opportunity right? I don't know when does zillow become a wedge deal, because i mean they're being stupid. I don't all right so uh.

What else do we have here? Well, uh matterport just broke 10 rallying a little bit into the close so far over 12, very good tesla 722. I can't believe it, but okay and uh draftkings draftking's up five percent. Today, that's cool, that's cool and then we have yeah, there's redfin, that's crazy, but dave and buster's 3874 amc's up 4.24 smile direct is still sitting at five dollars in the toilet down there. Hmm ubiquity 316 coinbase coinbase up neo's still up about three percent.

Despite that somewhat bad news, end phase wow almost a full three percent today, jeez this market, just um scary, it's too green folks. It's too green. I mean we expected an end of the year rally, but uh it's going green, pretty fast, all right, let's see what we got uh in the news and um. Let's look at some coins really quick, too axe.

Infinity. 135. Decentralian. 306 does coin 27, shebe 7099 cardano.

195 ethereum 4340 and btc 60.9 uh yeah. I have covered calls against both end phase and tesla right now some shares, and i would i would consider potentially selling a little bit off of those yeah, absolutely uh. In fact, i've already done some selling. I sent an alert to everybody in the stocks and psychology money group already and some of the things that i've rotated on.

I don't know i might make a video on that later. Unless i fall asleep, it depends so all right. What is this somebody sent me? This, how to trade crypto as it hits all-time highs. I don't know i didn't watch that uh pancakes.

Oh, this was back when we were doing the squid gamer stuff, that's right! Okay! So, let's get to where we want to be, which is the news: okay, mansion slams brakes on biden's economic plan, man, it's just biden, cannot catch a break with that plan. Uh and now i know there are a lot of uh. You know supporters in here of the let's go: brandon movement but uh, let's uh, let's take a look here. Senator joe manchin said: congress needs more time to assess the impact of joe biden's 1.75 trillion dollar tax and spend package.

The democrat refused to say when whether he supports an outline biden presented last week or whether there had been any progress in negotiations over the weekend. His remarks are a blow to biden who presented to house democrats what he says was a compromise plan. Mansion also criticized progressive democrats for holding up a bipartisan infrastructure bill until there's a full agreement on the larger economic package. Yeah, so remember, folks, there there are two uh infrastructure packages.

One is hard infrastructure like uh roads, railroads, ports, transportation uh. You know like actual infrastructure right and then uh, that's already been passed by the senate. The house could literally just sign it and be done with it. They have the votes but they're not because progressives are like well.

We don't want to sign your funding for highways and hard infrastructure unless you sign our social spending package. That's their argument right. The social spending package includes uh things like the extension of the child tax credit, which is the 300 per month for every child. Under six.

Two hundred fifty dollars per month for every child under uh 18 uh to be extending that for a year along with other things like paid leave, but so far looks like a free community college has been nixed, but there would be some form of free pre-school for Children yeah, it looks like here's another update mansion. It says i won't well, it's not loading. Now now it's pinna here we go. I won't support a bill unless it's paid for limits, inflation and boosts the economy and helps americans uh and so obviously the uh.

The expectation there is uh that this this potential social spending could could lead to some more inflation. That's been a fear of joe manchins for a while. Okay, all right, no, i'm not going to be able to solve world hunger. Yet all right, let's see here yeah, you know it's, it's not really that easy.

It's not that easy to say our military budget is 7.8 trillion dollars. How about we cut some of that to fund infrastructure? It's just you know, because what you're talking about is cut the military to fund uh social programs right, but when you cut military it to some degree, that also means some people are losing their jobs, which means now the money you're cutting there. You might have to support those folks with other social programs, because now they have no jobs. So there's there's a balance to everything sure that the expense for a military might look large.

But - and i i think there are definitely things that can be cut in the military. You know, i think, there's a lot of wasteful spending and inefficiency, but i don't think it's that easy, and it's certainly not that easy for congress to get on right, like we could debate all day long about where we can cut from the military. Don't get me wrong, but what you got to think of is like. Are you going to get republicans on board with that? Probably not.

You know we're the largest military force in the world by like 3x or more with our technological abilities. So yeah. That's that's a tough one and that's a tough sell with republicans. So you got to keep that in mind.

It's uh! It's! How are you going to politically sell something like that cut the fed bring on the fiscal sims? Oh, you mean like uh, though, at the same time as tapers turn start sending the checks mansion said monday wants a complete analysis of the biden plan. Yeah i mean there always will be. I mean there'll, be a um congressional research report on this uh. The cbo will always will always score bills like this, so we'll see all right.

So, let's see here all right, manufacturing growth in the us eases. We saw that this morning somebody writes here recently doubled my account: payoff 20k of 5.3 debt home in january, down payment, secured better pay off debt and reinvest debt to income max with mortgage. I mean me personally yeah i mean it depends what kind of debt that is, if it's margin debt, absolutely pay paid off. You know, so it depends what what kind of debt it is mortgage debt might be different.

You know if it's like credit line or something i don't know. What's this, the trump spac had a head start. Tell me more. The way special purpose acquisition company works is that sponsors raise a bunch of money and then go out and look for uh a private company to take public in theory.

Anyone could do this. I could launch a spac and try to raise money from the readers of this column. Maybe it would work, then i'd have some money in the bank and then i'd go out and look for a company to acquire. How would i do that? I don't know i personally, i don't personally know anyone who runs a big private company, they'd like to run turn public.

I suppose i could call up some investment bankers and say: hey. Do you know any companies that would like to merge with us back, but i gather that hundreds of specs for calling those bankers every day - okay uh? Oh just it - wants me to sign in okay, i mean so far. This just seems like an opinion article here. I don't know that we need to go through the opinions of potential trump backers here for uh the trump spec.

Let's instead go ahead and look back at some of the sticks here to see what's going on is tesla still moving. Where is tesla yeah tesla's still hanging out at 726.? I am tempted by some of those sell puts, but then again i also don't like selling puts when the market has has moved uh so high. But then again you could take advantage of some some. Certainly, some increased volatility here, but uh you're tying up a potential liquidity.

So if the market falls now you're potentially going into margin to buy the dip, but that dip yeah could end up being worse, who knows anyway, six percent on lemonade lemonade's? Finally, doing a nice little move here, good good, good in vitae blackberry, meta, it's running before earnings is what it is. Owlette's up four point: four percent crisper is actually up. Four percent wow there's a little bit of a shocker shift technologies. Hey! I just submitted my car to uh uh to shift to see what they'd pay me for it so i'll have to you'll have to.

Let me know how are my metaverse investments going? Oh amazing, my biggest one is uh matterport and look it's up again. Nine percent. I mean this thing uh. I did a big like 1.6 million dollar purchase at like 19.

uh. What was it so? It was like 1905 or something so current number divided by 1905, and this was like a week and a half ago yeah it's up like 30 on 1.6 mil. It was like. Yes, thank you that was great, but yeah.

I really love the uh metaverse uh matterport potential. Are you going to get your lucid air order? I have no idea. I have no idea they're they're stringing me along and it's very annoying and they they won't even invite me for a test drive. Even though all these other car youtubers have gotten test drives, it's like really, it just feels shady feels like i'm getting shafted.

That's it, oh! So anyway, looking forward to that shift, review yeah, i'm curious, because i also submitted one to carvana and vroom so we'll see. I uh, you know we'll shop it out, we'll see how it goes. You know all right. If i see if i sell or sell my tesla, i would uh i'd be able to buy one more tesla stock a month yeah because they do car reviews for a living.

So i do stock reviews for a living. What's the difference, they're running ads to promote their their cars and the stock? What's the difference, you got a whole different audience over here. You know unemployment. Okay, let's see i never did an interview with the ceo.

No, you were too detailed about your reviews. They need other novices to find the obvious stuff before giving. I appreciate that. That's really nice, i'm by no means a car expert, but i do appreciate that uh, okay alphabet, wow, google, now down three percent.

What is look at google? Look at this folks. This is profit taking. This is a. This is a little bit of a of an inflection here, i think in the market, because this is uh people cashing out of of uh, plays, like google uh.

In my opinion, that's uh, that's a little bit of a profit. Taking and b hedging this is this: is institutional hedging we're seeing right now? My bet, i believe that okay, i want to see the spy too matterport holding on to 10. Oh 1200 tesla. Oh, they hit 1200.

Oh, my gosh look at that! It just went to 1202. look at that volume. Surge people are taking their money out of google and throwing it into tesla wow wow it's insane. Well, we've got a very special guest coming on regarding tesla, so uh, it's an institutional investor in tesla, so be really cool.

Oh let's see here, fousey, okay, wow this what a nutso day! Ah it's hard to comprehend. Sometimes anyway, roblox uh down 3.2 percent amazon. The google i want to see what's the volatility like on google, do we get a pop on google's wall, not necessarily that i want to sell some puts, but i want to look for how much volatility potentially spiked uh? Oh yeah? Oh, we got a nice little juicy volatility bump there. We have not seen that kind of volatility in google in a while hold on a sec.

Let me go back to january. That was literally when we last saw that kind of volatility yup nailed it. So last time we had this kind of volatility at google was the beginning of january and the beginning of march. So we've been at these elevated levels before, but that is it.

I find this very interesting look at this. The volume keeps going up and it's cell volume that is substantial cell volume, tesla uh and then we did it looked like a potentially a large institution, buy came in over here and that's really what pushed us to 1203 sitting at 12 - essentially 01 right now, wow. What's going on with apple, where were you last week when we covered our apple earnings? That would give you the answer. Look at that gamestop up 9.15 percent as well.

I bet you game stops moving on metaverse because they got the whole nft and w3 developer position and all that good stuff, microvision matterport, fisker 9 plug power, very cool macy's, wow macy's up 7.4, my goodness so macy's is up 7.4, but etsy and amazon and a Firm are down, i mean, i guess brick and mortar. There's got to be news on macy's there's no way. Let me see, i think, tesla has the potential splitting around 1500. You don't particularly see a reason for macy's huh, yeah, how's elsa, doing lou sits down about 1.36 robin hood's 34.

robin hood's, just dirty right now they got downgraded by jp morgan gosh. They bagged on him. Hard jp morgan wrote him up at 26 dollars. Dirty.

Let's see here what the volatility is like on robin hood volatility on robin hood: nothing special! Oh, it's kind of moving a little bit here. How about volatility on pinterest! I hear. Okay, let's see what we have yeah pins is still up it's slowly rotating down, though very slowly rotating down. You've got some by pressure coming into robinhood.

Here wouldn't surprise me: if you had uh funds like kathy woods, buying robin hood today and selling tesla whoa, 1207., omg and then suretech is up. Root is up, lemonade is uh, and that must mean hippo's, probably up somewhere student debt. I'd probably pay off student debt. Yeah snap going wild into the clothes well, okay, yeah a lot of volume.

This is uh. It's probably honestly. This a lot of this could be kathy. A lot of this could be kathy wood.

You know, sell tesla, buy uh, buy snap buy uh. Whatever the other thing was we just looked at wow. This is insane. I don't get it.

Let me see. Oh, take a look here: tesla wow, the call options are just oh, my gosh they're really green. Well, duh, i mean i'm not gon na close anything right. I really should oh well too late now, one minute to close and be rushing yeah screw it robin it's not letting me in anyway.

Whatever kevin did you sell tesla when it fell down this year? No, i i increased my exposure to tesla uh. You got so much criticism because you were holding such an overvalued car company. Oh yeah people always make fun of me for my tesla projections, but they're morons. So i don't really care.

I don't have to listen to people's dumb opinions, so, okay, all right, so we're going into the close with backed holdings down 15 percent, a firm's down six in a bit zillow's down six and a quarter. Tesla broke all-time. Highs, broke 1200, it's at 1208, going into the close, let's listen to the closing ballot. This is a crazy closing and we'll have a special guest coming up soon and there you have it.

We are up 0.26 on the dow 0.18 percent. On the s p, 500, nasdaq, 0.63 and russell 2000's up 0.265, we do have earnings coming up. We have earnings coming up on chegg uh, coming up at 405 bike earnings coming up, then, after that we have clorox uh coming up, then we have simon property group. Coming up us yeah, we got the simon property group.

Okay, it's a good split, we'll be able to see what's up with those yeah, okay good, so simon clorox check see what's up here. Chegg is the textbook rental website. They are implying a 8.7 move after earnings. Clorox said have been having a little bit of a rough run, mostly because uh people think that potentially faux individuals might be stocked up enough on clorox style products.

Now, simon property group hits a 52-week high at 147.80 right before earnings all right. Let's see here, let's hop on over and waiting for those earnings to come through, in the meantime, make sure you get up to seventy dollars in totally free stock, with the stock trading app public go to medkevin.com public and get up to 70 totally for free. They don't buy or sell your information and they don't use payment for order flow check it out by going to mckevin.com public and follow me there at meet kevin okay. So, let's see if we continue a trend here on a firm or if we end up holding 150, let's take a look at the one hour chart here for a firm.

We have a pretty solid trend right here. Yeah, look! Look at this trend right here. That's that's pretty solid right there. Here we go pretty solid trend right here, we'll see if uh, if this ends up giving us any kind of uh indication of more of a downsword coming.

But i think it's really too early to tell yeah a little messy here. So we'll leave that trendline here keep an eye on uh affirm. Tesla has just obviously gone bonkers. Take a look at it again here: yeah tesla up 8.53, that's insane and folks, it's rising after hours, it's going up in the after hours.

That is kooky von dukey. That's just insane: oh, my goodness. Oh yeah yeah all right, um wow, it's up at uh, 12, 14 right now, 12. 14 in the afters, unbelievable waiting for these earnings.

Clorox, simon property group shag got about one minute to go until we get some earnings see if anything else is really moving in the after hours here, not really pretty quiet in the after hours. So far, let me get chegg up here. All right. Here's chag running really into earnings, but look at it.

If this thing crashed, i mean it was 115 stock. Now trading for 57 ran today a little bit of excitement coming back clorox simon property group. Still waiting should have a first set of earnings in about 30 seconds here. Take a look at this voyager digital finishes.

Up about uh finishes down about five percent lemonade, uh 0.67 and after hours again waiting for chegg now chegg should be the first to move and clorox simon property group we're on standby, and we are at 105. there. It is chegg, comes in with a revenue of 171.9 eps beats 20 cents versus 19 expected and that revenue came in on a miss 171.9 versus 174 expected. That is a miss on on the net revenue, but the bottom line beat that was oh bad guidance, not good.

Guidance. 762, to 764 million of guidance saw 805 to 815 big miss on guidance, big miss on the uh on the uh, well big, miss on guidance and then a miss on revenue stock now down 11.4 percent, that's in that's like it. That was faster than instant karma right there that i mean, and i'm not suggesting that check deserved any kind of instant karma, but that was faster than those those car crash. Compilations you see on youtube where it's like instant karma that was so fast, oh accelerating.

14. 13, 15 now bobbing in the after hours unsure what to do here, but it looks like you're getting more sell orders coming through from institutions. Some computer programmed uh, sell orders here 14.77 now to the downside, 17, 16 to 17 down now on chegg and we are waiting clorox awaiting clorox and with uh no eta on when clorox is going to report. And then we do have simon property group coming out in four minutes now down 18 20 on chegg.

So this place this one's just getting eradicated, absolutely eradicated, uh see if this is a company that you could even buy the dip on. I don't know anything about a textbook rentals. This shouldn't even be textbooks honestly, it should all be digital, expecting 26 growth. They are profitable at about a dollar 48 of eps 1.79 expected next year.

Two dollars expected the year after uh, that's not bad 148. So, what's it add now it's selling for about 35 times this year's earnings, but uh? How are you saying sheba's running right now? It's at 71 - it's been here like all day like this i mean this is just this is just a moment in the life of crypto, tesla, relatively fine and after hours at 12 14.. That's insane, it is insane, doesn't make sense, it's a very, very quick, rapid catch-up, but then again the market does that you know - and we've said it many times about tesla yeah we'll probably make a video on the zillow flop. Let's see, okay, all right! Next earnings come out in 90 seconds: we are waiting for clorox and the simon property group, simon property group, comes out in 90 seconds.

Simon property group was one of my trades during the pandemic man. We bought this thing at like 49 52. That was crazy, crazy, crazy times. How do they calculate guidance? Well, probably because the company has already gone through half the quarter well, one month of the quarter, gee simon property group up a third of a percent here, a little bit of excitement.

Tesla just turned slightly red there in the after hours now down about 0.08 0.05. All right, we should have simon property group in 35 seconds see what happens all right so simon property group in 20 seconds. Now, let's go ahead and pull it simon property group and then we're going to talk tesla, okay, simon property group waiting for it five seconds. Then we should have it and no okay, we're we're at we're at go time.

It's 1 10.. There. It is 3.13, a share. Q3 eq3, wait uh! No, that's forward wait a second.

This is very confusing, beat estimate. Oh yeah, wow 3.13 versus 2.53 expected that's. A good beat actually increases full year. Guidance.

Nice see 6.61 eps to 6.71. Not a lot of details on this one, but a good beat there on simon property group, yet despite a good beat you're still down about a percent there. In the after hours on uh on simon property group, looks like expectations were a little bit higher okay. So, let's uh, let's now talk tesla all right, all right! Folks! Now we're going to talk about tesla and to help me talk about tesla, i'm going to bring in a legendary tesla investor.

His name is gary black. You should follow him on twitter, he's amazing and incredibly insightful, and i'm super excited to bring him on it's my first time talking to him on the channel and bringing him to you here and super excited. So gary welcome aboard. Thank you for being here.

How are you doing good thanks for inviting me absolutely gary? This is insane 1208. Is this sustainable? When is tesla going to go down, so we can buy more? I think it's going higher um. You know when you think about. What's driving this move, it's a couple things one! The 22 estimates keep going up right.

The analysts are behind they're, pushing estimates up, they're, pushing price targets up two you've got a lot of portfolio managers, who've been underweight tesla all year, uh, which has worked, and now as the stock has taken off it's up. Uh 70 year-to-date right, uh and then - and you know the nasdaq is up like i don't know - 20 23, or so you got all these portfolio managers scrambling and they don't like amazon anymore. They don't like apple, they don't like facebook. They got to find something to buy and tesla has great fundamentals.

Third, you got the ev credit. That's still out there right. This is part of the infrastructure bill. It's going to be 8 000 uh dollars for tesla just a zero today.

Okay, so that's another thing and then, when you think about all the stuff next year you got cyber truck coming. You got this 25 000 compact car coming. When i look at tesla it's worth about 1400 bucks, i think it's still going higher. Now you run an actively managed etf.

Is there a limit to how much tesla you could have in it? You know we have one limit, we're what they call a non-diversified fund. So we can have positions that are more than five percent. We can't have any more than 25 percent in any one industry. This is the ticker ffnd's future fund, um, we've gotten off to a great start.

We're up, i don't know close to eight percent. In two months, uh beating our benchmark, speeding or beating most of the folks out there um, but no, we can't own more than 25 in any one industry. That's our only limitation, so we're getting close to about 10, which is kind of limited. A lot of people, think of but as long as we still see really good upside down side and when we put a stock and it's got to have at least two times upside the downside we'll continue to own it and and and probably be our biggest position Too now uh a lot of folks complain that tesla's p e ratio is too high that it's fundamentally overvalued.

You know i i make argument videos against these folks regularly and try to show look at all these future revenue potentials that we have the growth rates that we have do do individuals in the market, fundamentally misassociate pe with being over undervalued and then get stuck investing In value traps, and then they wonder why they missed the vote on things like tesla. I think individuals get it better than the institutional guys, because i hear institutions saying that all the time and look if you go to business school, even if you take a basic finance course, you learn very early on, as you alluded to, you've got to look at Present value of future earnings for future cash flows, which is what we do so we go out to 2025. You go out to 2030, but we can only forecast about five years. You came up with about 40 in earnings for tesla in 2025, and it's driven by eb adoption.

Eb adoption is soaring okay, so this year it's about six percent issue is three: next year will be 10., so we go out to 2025 and get 40 in earnings. You got to figure out what kind of pe you think tests will deserve in 2025. It's gon na slow. It's not going to be.

You know the same growth rate you have today. We come up with about 50 times. It's the appropriate, multiple, looking forwards in 2025 and you can calculate it mathematically. You put a thousand bucks a share 50 times, 40 is 2 grand and then you discount it back.

You got to come up with a discount rate that reflects tesla's. Riskiness tesla has about a 1.6 beta, which is a measure of its risk units. So i take the 10-year treasury, which is about 2. We think it'll be about 2.

The average year equities beat bonds by six multiply that times. One six, you get eleven point. Six percent discount very cap m financial theory bs, but it works, and so when you discount two thousand dollars back by 1.16 for about three and a half years, which is where we are in 2025., you get about fourteen hundred dollars. So that's the way i think about it.

I still see plenty of upside for tesla. If and where i'm going to be wrong is ev. Adoption will probably accelerate even quicker than what i'm thinking is and tesla i'm assuming tesla just holds on to its market share. It's in in the ev space, so my bet is that we're going to continue to take our estimates up which will push our price target up even higher.

But when people talk about pes, i just shake my head and say you don't understand the way to value growth stocks. Nobody else, growth stocks based on current pe. Why? Because the earnings this year for any growth stock, whether it be chipotle or airbnb or trade desk or even amazon, it's going to be much higher in the future. You can't evaluate a growth stock based on pe.

It just doesn't make any sense. Brilliantly said uh. I don't know by the way, if there's a setting on your mic, but if you could maybe dial your volume down just a little bit, it's peaking a little bit no worries, though, if not uh. In the meantime, i wan na i just pulled up my sheet on tesla.

I have twenty dollars for 2025., what you're you're twice as bullish as i am, and i thought i was a tesla bull uh, wait what's driving your forty dollars yeah! Well, i assume that ev adoption will be sixty percent um by 2030 and then i back up uh at 2025, i'm at about 30 and again in this year, it'll be six. 20 21 next should be 10.. I assume that tesla's going to just hold on to a tv share. A lot of people argue with me about you know, focusing on ev share focus on overall share, so i multiply easy adoption on db share and i get units i take the units without getting into all the details times the average price and i'm assuming the average Price goes down over time.

Remember they have cyber truck next year. They'll have tesla compact in 2023., multiply it times the operating margin, and i get earnings now. My 40 number, which is worth 2 000, includes nothing for solar, including nothing for servicing, includes nothing for robo taxi. It includes nothing for um any kind of insurance, i'm just looking at the ev business and the ev business to me is worth 40 bucks a share in earnings now uh right it.

The latest stat that i have here is that tesla accounted for 79 of new electric vehicles registered in the u.s in 2020.. Is that the the number that you're using no we're using a number that we look at it globally? I think you're looking at just the u.s, so they operate globally. In fact, they make more teslas in china than they do in the u.s today, yeah, that's true yeah. This is u.s on a global basis and there's a lot of data out there that you can track.

We try to do it by region, but globally. What's that globally about what 15 between 15 and 20. it's about 21.22 today? Okay, so when we go again, we can get into as much math as you want. But when we look at it we take the ev adoption times.

The tv show we use 21 by the way any option you can multiply each year. You multiply it times the global soar and you get units units times pricing times. Operating margin gives you uh, pre-tax profits, put a tax rate about 15-20 percent on it and that's how we get our net income again. We don't really add anything for energy, solar, energy.

We don't really anything for the service, they don't make any money today. Hmm, that's interesting, yeah! No, that's that's exactly what i do as well as i literally put zero for energy and it's like a loss leader, uh insurance, semis robo taxi. All that i use 40k. Oh sorry, go ahead! That's conservative, then you're being conservative well yeah.

100. What i um, i also use about 40k a vehicle in 2025.. What did you find that reasonable? Thank you, i'm a little higher than that, i'm about 48-ish, 48 wow. Okay, if i change mine to 48., what i do i actually do.

I i break it down by model, so right now model 3 model y. You know probably 85 90 of the business. You got to add model s and x, which have been refreshed and there's a lot of demand right now for those cyber truck. I use about the same as model wild, though i know one cyber truck goes out because they have over a million pre-orders cyber trucks.

Price is going to get raised and really the wild card. This is the hardest thing to model it is. It is what is the compact gon na do test the queue some people call it a model, two, it's time to be model two. I don't think it's gon na be called model q.

I think you're gon na call tesla compact and then so you you got ta forecast, tesla compact. You need to figure out. How much does it cannibalize model three, because model three is going to be the thing the catalyzer is not gon na be model y yeah. So you got a forty thousand dollar model.

Three, that's being catalyzed by you know, what'll, probably start as a twenty 25 000 tesla compact and that's the modeling question. You know it's it's funny. I just. I just realized that when i, when i updated my 40k per vehicle to 48, i realized that, even though my projected eps for 2025 was half of yours uh.

If, if i update uh to to about 48k a vehicle and uh and you're about 50 times, earnings, probably i think you're still a little bit more bullish than me, but we're we're in pretty much the same place. I agree with you how many units do you have in 2025, so in 2025 i have 4.8 you're close. I have five two. So oh look at that.

That's good! No! It's so interesting! You know there's so many competitors uh, not competitors, but people on the sell side who do this for a living right and i manage money, you do what you do real living, but the sell side focuses on tesla and they just consistently get it wrong. I'm always amazed at the beginning of every year and we're kind of getting to the beginning of the year. I start so much higher than analysts on the current year, which is what happened this year and then, by the time we get to the end of the year they catch up. So now i'm in 2022 because nobody's looking at 20, 21 anymore, i'm using 12 in earnings for next year.

Okay, you know what the street is 8.50, and this is about it's a 35 difference. It's about the same difference that i was in 2021 at the beginning of the year and then they catch up, and so now we're kind of at the end of the year, we're looking 22 at 12, a share in earnings, big number wow. So now i want to ask you uh on margin, we just broke a threshold. Here we just broke 30 on margin, uh with uh, with credits.

We expect that to be 30 without in the future. You know the whole credit debate like not even worth having, because i'm tired of seeing the trolls, like, oh only profitable because of credits they're fine right. I know you're on the same page with that. But what do you think? How high can this actually go? Have we have we peaked on margin or where, where can an auto manufacturer, actually go on gross margin, yeah, so first of all, you're right back out the zeb credits which, because they're going to go away - and i assume will go away not in 2022 but 2023.

I was going to go away, so my price target assumes zero zeb credits because, as everybody starts, making zevs they're, you know making eds they're not going to need to buy them anymore, so that that makes perfect sense to me, uh 28 is the number for third Quarter, excluding the regulatory credits, so i assume 28 for next year because i'm trying to be conservative and then i gradually move it up to about 30 by 2025. And that's my my assumption. But again i think i'm being pretty conservative right now, because i'm assuming a lower gross margin for next year than they had in the third quarter, yeah yeah you're right yeah. I think you are being conservative, but that's good, because that gives you that margin of safety, which is perfect for investing, especially if you're managing someone's money you want to have it and i'll tell you the biggest investment controversy is as competition takes off the gloves.

Okay and they really try to go after tesla and risk cannibalizing their own, what we call ice, franchise, internal combustion engine franchise and they take off the gloves and go at it. You know as heavy as they can deliberately cannibalize themselves. Are they going to gain share? That's the key investment controversy and so far it's like where's the competition right. They haven't really shown up and everybody keeps saying well they're, coming they're coming and look from an evidence standpoint.

They are changing their strategy. You see f-150, which is the best-selling pickup truck in america for 40 years now going to bring out an f-150 ev. Okay, you see uh porch mccann, i'm a porsche guy. I've driven porsches my whole life.

Now i'm a tesla guy. I don't drive portions anymore tesla's, but porsche mccann is the best selling porsche they're going to bring out a porsche mccann evie. What are you drinking? Is that a monster yeah yeah, i'm a little tired. Today, i didn't sleep enough.

You have to drink this. This is like the best thing out there. What is that celsius? It's like if you get on amazon after monster and red bull, this is the energy drink. People are buying, we own it in our portfolio.

That's why i'm showing it to you what what stock is? This cel-8 celsius got a market cap of well, i don't know i'd, say: seven billion. It's not much. It's a mid-cap name i'll! Tell you what it is i'll check that out. Oh yeah, c-e-l-h, okay, yeah yeah 7.5.

If you go into it into a convenience, store talk to the owners um, you can't really talk to amazon people, but this thing is a great practice. It tastes good and it has no calories in it. It tastes you live in florida. What's that do you live in florida? No, but it's in florida, that's where their headquarters is yeah yeah.

Well, that's why i was wondering because sometimes you get the like there could be that local bias right. No, no! I live in chicago. I mean you, don't find this out here to be honest with you, you know where you do find it. You find it in sweden.

Ah investment, contrary is his competitors, take off the gloves, tesla's going to finally lose share, i'm not buying it! Okay, because there's a brand associated with you, stick a mercedes or a volkswagen, even a porsche nameplate on the back of an ev. People are confused because they're used to those brands, meaning gas guzzling and combustion engine, and i'm going to give an example from the marketing world think about cigarettes. Okay, marlboro camel newport are the top three brands in regular cigarettes. You know where those brands are in e-cigarettes, which is the newest thing they're.

Nowhere, it's new, it's um focus it's uh. Mark 10.. You don't see the rules on e-series because it doesn't make sense to a consumer and see this is this is there's a big thing on cnbc today? Why do active managers all underperform? Because they all do okay and i think, a lot of us because they never worked in a real operating job. I have you, probably have they've only been financial analysts they're.

They don't know what consumers think they don't understand, branding they don't jam. Just swap a volkswagen name plate or a ford nameplate or a chevy nameplate on an ev and expect it to buy, because you know it's just not going to happen that easily. So, even if you look at porsche, which has been the most successful with tai cam tight can almost all the volume has come internally for panamera. If you draw a chart, it can go like this and america's going like this, and so that's the problem here that the consumer doesn't let you just slap an ice brand on top of an ev and expect it to sell the consumer, wants a brand.

That means clean energy. That's why tesla's doing so! Well, it's probably where they're going to do. Well, that's why lucid will do well. Okay, that's incredible! You know i never thought about that before this uh, but this transition you just mentioned between uh cigarette companies failing to get into e-cigarettes you'd, think that would be the easiest most logical transition like if i were going to start an e-cigarette brand ten years ago or Five years ago, i'd be thinking to myself.

What's to stop marlboro from just rolling me right, marlboro, we said and there's no such thing. You know, what's even more incredible, i used to cover the tobacco before i know, probably more than i should know about it. Philip morris with jones marlboro owns jewel. They own the rights to joel.

They chose not to use marlborough on e-cigarettes yeah, but all the toppings they're all owned by the top tobacco companies wow really hard to take a tainted brand and stick it on something. That's supposed to mean, like you know, clean char or whatever it's like a disconnect. It's almost like an active etf. You know it's very hard to take an etf and have like an existing brand name on it, because details are all about transparency and you know, saving on tax and things like that.

So when you try to take it back to a topic at hand when you try to take, you can tell i've, had one too many of these today right right when you try to take a clean energy brand, and you know like tesla, and you put it Up against an ice brand like ford or gm, there's no way that they can compete with it. It just doesn't okay. So then, i have a question for you, because uh one of the things that i've liked about lucid is that it is one of the first uh non-uh tesla pure ev, plays that's public and delivering vehicles now just just delivered vehicles saturday, and i think that's led To a lot of enthusiasm for the stock, i can't um, you know the valuation's a lot more difficult to come around because you can't run numbers on their factory efficiencies yet because you have no quarterly earnings yet showing how efficient they are - and i doubt they're going To be efficient, i mean when neo first produced vehicles, their margin was like two percent, then four percent. You know it took a while for them to even get into the teens.

So how do you go about valuing something like lucid or do you even care? Is this just going to be like a winner takes all yeah? It is really hard. I mean you point out. I can't come up with a volume number, but i don't know what the deliveries are going to be, especially since they're, starting with the vehicles they started. Delivering a weekend 170 thousand dollars yeah well how many of the 90 000 or 80 000 dollars you're going to actually sell? I'm not a buyer! Here blue city looks like it's about 37 dollars.

I just think it's you know. There's finger up in the air forecasting going on lucid at this point, and so i'm not a buyer of it. On the other hand, rhythm's going to come public next week, ribbon they're, going to put a value of about 60 billion dollars on vivian, has a much better potential for succeeding because they're competing in the truck business, which is the most popular part of business. About 20 market share, so if you think about tam they're, going to be playing in 20 of the tam total adjustable market and then they're going to take their brand and leverage it another concept.

If you've worked in a brand management organization, leverage it into a different category, called suvs and you're going to have a ribbon suv sometime next year, that's about 40 of the market, so their tam is. This is an interesting lesson from tesla. Their tan will go from 20 to 60, whereas lucid once you start with a sedan. What are you gon na? Do you leverage into an suv? It doesn't really make a lot of sense.

So the reason why i got excited about tesla. Originally, i got into the stock not that long ago, 2019, because they decided they were going to double capacity because they opened up shanghai and they were going to leverage their brand into model y, which is the baby should be. They had a big suv, which is the model x, but that crossover segment. Cuv segment is 40 percent of the market in the us.

It's like 45 of the market in china and in europe. So if you're just doing the math you're, basically going from at the time you're going from about 20 of the market with tesla and the big suv, it was only a little tiny piece, but that cuv segment, the crossover vehicle segment is 40, basically gone from 24. I think it was to 65 of the market overnight, and so here's here's what's going on next year, they're going into europe with the cuv right they're, going to make the model y in berlin they're exporting it in from china. But it's it's overpriced, because you've got to pay a 10 uh import tax from china to europe.

Once you make it in berlin, you can sell that cuv, which is 40 percent of the market against all the european competitors. That's huge! Okay! Back to vivian! It's the same thing: you're leveraging your brand you're building your your your tam. So when a vivian first comes out, people are just going to put the value of the um of the truck in there, which is the pickup truck right. But you really got to think about is they're going to capture a certain percentage of the suv market as well.

Why do you think lucid can't uh make this transition from sedan to suv? I think that's the one place you lost me good, i mean you know, think about it. Tesla was able to do it right, but they had a model x for a long time. I think it's harder now. I think you know: when tesla did it, they were the only out there yeah why you got a ton of evs out there and you brought the chinese names before neoxpath.

They all have um, they all have little sedans and little entities. So i just think it's very hard at this point for lucid to go down the path of oh, let's introduce an suv and compete tesla and ribbian, and, and you know the ice guys have all woken up. So they're like you're gon na, have a volvo uh. Xc90 tv - i guess next year, okay, there's a lot more competition today, yeah, but you've also got.

I mean, like volvo they're expected to deliver like uh half a million electric vehicles by 2025., rivian's expected to do like one-tenth of that by 2025. how's that management. That's managing forecast right, uh, oh sorry, uh, so uh this is uh one. No, the for the only forecast i have for rivien is an analyst forecast and uh and then uh average analyst forecasts for volvo, but um volvo shows evs exactly expected to deliver.

One million vehicles by 2025, with half of them being fully electric the rest being hybrids, was an expectation. Okay, that's possible. Hey look. Volvo's got a great brand for safety.

I always think in terms of what i call brand equities and who owns them. Okay, so performance priority performance, but tesla also owns performance battery range there's. Another reason why evs tesla clearly owns the brand equity for range. Even though uh lucid's got a you know, 520 mile range, um technology, fsd tesla clearly owns that.

So i'm listing off all the characteristics that people use when they choose an suv. If you go out and do focus, groups of people say what's important to you. Okay, those are three things are really important. I think, as we did more and more into autonomous driving and you're starting to see it really ramp up, safety becomes a huge element of the brand equity and who owns safety in the brand equity space.

If you were to, if you would go to a bar tonight and ask ten people what's the safest vehicle out there, what am i building? I bet you seven out of ten say volvo wow people don't say: tesla tesla needs to own safety, and i think elon knows that you hear him talking a lot about safety. Now. I think you know that's a dimension that they will try to. They have.