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From Italy Steve Good morning, good morning everyone. How's everybody doing this morning? Hopefully good hopefully Grand Yep, so figured I would hop on, do a little Morning YouTube stream. Haven't done that in a while, so kudos to that. Pretty much just going to hang out for the next.
What are we? 720? So we'll just hang out for the next hour and about 40 minutes. Hour and 30 minutes. Pretty much what you can expect. We're just going to run through some penny stocks that are kind of going up these days, or any sort of other stocks that'll be going up pre-market that might have relative strength into the open and so on.
Um, then we'll probably look at some SPX options things like that to try to get a feel for where most of the activity is going to be on the S&P 500 today. So essentially, we're just going to be doing a lot of scanning this morning looking at different stocks and all the norm. um, but also looking at some SPX options cuz those do trade pre-market if you're not aware. So um, at times I can give you a little inclination as to which options are going to be hot for the day via the pre-market activities.
Um, yeah, so we'll be doing some of that. Um, and I'll be doing a lot of scanning so you know if I'm not speaking or at the moment to just know that I'm probably using my brain pretty hot. So good morning. Got some coffee? Orin I don't I hopefully I said that right? Cole Steve So yeah, like for example, you know this morning so far these are just a couple things I've noticed.
um Adil uh Adtx These are just some penny stocks that got pumped like again. this one started at 400 in the morning. so again, a lot of these penny stocks. You know it's either if you're not in before the pump the previous day before they blow off, then you have to be in like the day of before it launches.
So like you know, like something like this I wouldn't even consider anymore cuz you know it already blew up. same thing like here like this one. maybe it revised but kind of blew up and again I haven't really even looked at news like this is just like the starting point of all of it. just kind of seeing where the relative volumes at so so far this morning.
um Adil Adtx am MP So all A's Ironically, all of these have been pumping. So this is in the healthcare market. so we got three stocks this morning Adil Adtx all pumping a little bit and that's within the healthcare market. So ideally we would start assuming that momentum is in the healthc care sector this morning via penny stocks.
Um so there you go. so we might and again I don't know I mean like these are these are just the ideas coming to my mind I'd have to sit down and like, go dig deeper. But I'm telling you so that if you want to right now you can go seek out the healthcare market right? That's just one thing. So just saying you have three penny stocks this morning Adil adtx that have all pumped.
Not saying they're good buys, not saying you should buy them now or later or anything. just saying of sort of the three kind of quick, jolty, pumpy stocks they've had this morning. they're in the healthcare market so to me that just means that we're getting activity in the healthcare Market right now. So why right then you can go look at bigger Healthcare Stocks you want? You know you could look at some midcaps large caps see if they're getting activity. Um, you know there's an idea for you today so you might want to follow. Healthcare Today Uh, Vvos yesterday. um was Vvos Healthcare actually really don't don't know. um but I did look at it yesterday.
yeah Vvos went from uh 6 Monon plus 4 Everyone was be I want to say I don't want to say everyone was bearish but the real it is it traded to about 6 month plus 4 resistance. um and then just straight squeezed everyone out a 6month plus4 took them to a yearly plus4 and obviously it came down since a little bit. But yep, let me keep working here. Let see C Here's an interesting one.
See what's this guy in not even telling me? the sector you know this is? this is again. this is? another possible one, but again, the pump here started about 4:00 so kind of late there as far as entry. Um, not that it couldn't keep going, but you're definitely not. First see like this guy.
Pump started 5 in the morning. You know that's that's another one, right? Like you know. Realistically, I was signaled on this one about 5: in the morning. So I mean maybe it keeps working some, but kind of late to that party as well.
Um, again, like if you're really going to trade penny stocks again, you either have to be in the day before, couple weeks before the pump, or you have to be up in the morning the day that they start pumping. cuz again, the scam algorithms and pump scammy uh, generally kicks off while you're sleeping, right? and then by the time you wake up, they blow these prices up so that you chase them and they distribute shares to you. That that's that's pretty much what's happening behind the scenes. When you wake up and Benzinga tells you, oh my.
God the stock is up 600%. It's not necessarily a good thing, it means they're just trying to advertise to you something that someone else needs to distribute. and that's not entirely true. Of course, they're just advertising it because the stock did well, but you got to be in before the pump right when the pump starts.
Generally speaking, or else again, you're just taking on a necessary risk. essentially. Um, I was let's hold on I got to take a look at the Spy real quick quick I haven't really? Oh I already have it up Yeah, what do it doing pre-market Okay, so Market's holding up a bit back over the 50 SMA so not be so that's bullish Yeah H it's kind of funny. Anyways, from Istanbul Good morning, good morning, good morning.
Okay yeah guys. I'm just again opening up some more scanners and just basically just kind of looking around the market. actually I haven't opened it yet. but going to. dude, why is this being so stupid? You know sometimes you just have to ask like what is the deal, why does always not want to work I guess this just happens when you get older and everything just breaks and always got to fix something. huh? All right. so over 10 under five? that's a good question. All right.
Yeah, figures. Mm's up there nothing. CN XA CN XA got hit yesterday. Okay H sxtc Cphi was hit yesterday so no nura might have a little juice left in it.
maybe a little something early. Why not? What's neuro part of Tell me right here I need to change one of these scanners so it tells me the sector anyways. I was just going to say yeah, mean neuros got a little activity today. arguably this m it little activity again Shar Resume Trade 9:00 Healthc Care seems like it's in Healthc Care I don't really know.
1120 they did a reverse split that's kind of scammy. H This is kind of kind of interesting for H for Mission Texas have a good day. good morning. Said to fix something.
Been a mechanic for 25 years. Yeah, something is always getting fixed. Um yeah Steve one second I'll get that going for you. Where is it at? I mean yeah.
sorry if I'm kind of being a little boring I mean I'm reading through as many charts as I can. just kind of getting my my head on straight. It can take me a while to get on straight these days cuz my brain is full of a lot of information now it seems it just you know over the years of just doing it and doing it and doing it and it's kind of what happens and it's It's not that you're over and I don't want to say like I'm overcrowding it. um it's just different strategies for different time frames of the day and and you just got to be on top of it and so on so forth.
Um um I just posted a link uh Steve to the deviation system. That's it's kind of a link as if you were enrolled, but I I it's actually from the admin side. but I think if you click that it should work. let me know and if not then I can go get you know another one that it's better.
Um, when do you get a chance? can you post oh that was you Conor do you have analyze TLT TM um I do look at you know what? not as much as I probably should. um and there's other individuals that have more expertise in the space. But as far as getting caught up? well yes I I can look at it I can give analysis on it I look at bond yields I look at 2 years, 10 years, 30 years, 20 years TLT um last night I was looking at some like was I looking at I think I was looking at the Bloomberg junk Bond market. So yeah I mean I I Do it just you know? Yep.
I look at them. It just kind of depends on the cont. text maybe what we're trying to do for some of this stuff. Okay, give me a second.
I'm just going to kind of Zing through some stocks real quick just to get a feel again all the stocks that I'm running through right now I'm just basically trying to see where you know um, relative strength might be at whether it's in penny stocks, whether it's in midcap cap. large cap doesn't necessarily have to be B sector. but it is common that you do see relative strength via sector, especially when it comes to Penny Soxs Um, you know the other thing too is is we've been seeing a lot of these good penny stock pumps. Not that I'm saying you should trade penny stocks. That's not what I'm getting at, it's just we're coming into the season of That So I Am putting some attention back on the market because again, makes most sense. The hot Market it you know tends to be hot around the winter in January And that's you know that's because that's a part of the annual sale. The stock market runs. Uh, we won't get into the full tinf foil hat there.
but I mean it is reality. Uh, every year come December January the stock market is going to run what I call the penny stock Black Friday sale. They're going to get a lot of traders in the door of the stock market showroom. and the stock market is going to show these customers a bunch of these awesome penny stocks that fly like Vbos from like $7 to 45.
What a great way to get people clicking buttons, churning the keyboard, spending on commission, getting the exchanges money. it's called The Black Friday Sale happens once a year. Efficient Market Hypothesis says we don't understand the January fact. It doesn't make sense.
Little side note: if you're not familiar, officient: Market Hypothesis is basically a hypothesis within the stock market that suggests that the markets are efficient, therefore all publicly known knowledge is available and that markets are efficient that you can't exploit markets for a further gain outside of what the market would just naturally give you of Randomness, etc etc etc. S Simultaneously Efficient Market hypothesis says everything is efficient, then simultaneously says they don't actually understand the January effect. The January effect is where we see small cap stocks run AKA penny stocks pump stupidly like Vbos from 7 to 45. If markets were efficient, they wouldn't do that.
So the biggest one of the biggest claims uh I guess you could say or arguments against the validity of EMH hypothesis or efficient market hypothesis is that markets are in fact not efficient, right? Because why does the stock run from $7 to 44? Well, maybe it's because psychology. Now you're talking behavioral. Finance Um, maybe it's just an outlier event. Sure, But then that would still say that markets aren't efficient.
Um, so to wrap it up, efficient Market hypothesis says everything in the Market's efficient. You can't exploit it. Basically, there's other some other forms of that, but it basically says you can't exploit it. Okay, but it also says that the efficient Market hypothesis has no way of legitimizing and or understanding the reasoning behind the January fact where midcap stocks get blown up way outside of proportion, way outside what they're worth. And if you're looking at markets in terms of efficiency and not expecting them to be a scam, then yeah, you'd be confused. Now if you look at if you look at markets as an Adaptive market and behavioral market and and efficient market, then you would see it all in one. which is markets work on psychology. They're adaptive and they're also efficient to a degree.
And they're a scam. So once you understand that, you go Hm, if I was a stock market or it doesn't matter, you could sell hats for a living. You could be a mechanic as I think I don't know if it was Steve or someone was a mechanic here, right? You know the chances are if you say hey everyone your car is all jacked up. We're going to run a Black Friday sale and you can come in and we'll fix your car half off.
A lot of people probably going to come in or let's flip the script stock market. Hey guys, you want some really good opportunities, we're just going to blow up freaking crazy from like 7 to 45. If that doesn't attract you, start clicking buttons I don't know what will. So here you go.
Here's like a full two months of just scam pumps going 100 200, 1,000% Th% Th% 100% 100% 100% Guess what? CNBC This stock ran to $48 a day pump. Guess what? Benzinga, Guess what? This Stock's up 1,000% today. P It's the annual sale. Okay, so if you so yeah, that's how you rationalize it.
That's how it works for me. Makes perfect sense. It is it, you know. So cheers.
All right, on to uh more optimistic things. Uh, the stock market's been doing great I hope you guys are happy about that. All right. Um, what am I doing talking nonsense? Kind of all right.
I'm got to get my head on straight. What time is it? 7:38 So it's 7:38 Decent amount of time till open. Still do a little bit of a little bit of scanny scanny. Also like I said be not like I said before.
guys. a penny stock that you know seems okay, might have something again. I actually I don't want to say that I don't really want to give recommendations I'll just just pointing out stuff. That's it.
That's all. I don't even want to I don't want to give out recommendation at this point cuz people lose. it just gets annoying even though it doesn't matter. All right.
So I'm just going to stop talking like I said I was and I'm just going to run through a quick list here and see what we got going on. There's the Minm. like I said, it was kind of pumping earlier but just a little too high for me. am kind of scammy wave moves whatever late CN XA CN XA Smfl I mean that I mean maybe this I mean this like again, like this is like okay, maybe this has something and and again, guys like I'm not trying to point you on like the biggest Banger for the day I'm just trying to find things that I could see could have relative strength and like right here this this is getting alerts: volume's up 7 133% 73% on average. then again it's a little high, hasn't really retraced to a support that I'd like so might arguably watch like Smfl for a dip down of like 160, snag it at 160, don't load up my account so that if the trade goes wrong I'm pissed right? So just so some of these mornings um I will just like average trades across like 10 or 15 different stocks sometimes. um but that that is like in relationship to when the penny stock markets out which again I don't trade them as actively as I used to um but as far as like but like I said like I could come in and look in and go like oh I like Smfl or I like uh or I like G what is it g or I like gri right and I'll throw you know, throw some money on this one I'll throw some money on that one, put stops and Targets in and then buy the open it just let them work right. Whatever happens happens, but you're diversifying. You're basically diversifying your portfolio of trade so that one doesn't take you out.
One doesn't make your day. But if you pick better, if you pick more correctly than incorrectly, the results are wins. That's the objective. Therefore, the commonality here is to find things with relative strength because one of the things, um, that rebukes efficient Mark Hypothesis is that relative strength persists.
That's the commonality, which is Trends persist. Uh, Therefore, something has relative strength. Therefore, it's more likely to pers assist in the direction of the relative strength, even though maybe it shouldn't be like maybe the company's dog cool doesn't matter if it has relative strength, the likelihood of its continuation is greater than that if it doesn't, right? So that's part of the logic. finding things with relative strength, making sure that the risk is okay, and then you just diversify the risk across a couple things that that look okay, right? Um, going to continue here.
C A D This ah man, this one's almost convincing me take something I'll pass. Maybe something else better comes of, but that one's debatable. I was almost kind of considering this one cuz again it it pumped and it reset. But the the bottom line is, we kind of already had the pump so it's a little sketch.
probably not the one. Still haven't really gotten any new alerts on more of my midcap stuff. East East is getting a little action here. Okay, so we got signaled at 7:30 Okay, so JF uh East E A This is one to keep on watch.
This does not mean buy this right now. Okay, but arguably want to keep on watch. You'd be looking for dips. Okay, it's not a guarantee, so don't go throw $20,000 on the stock.
right? That's not the point. That's not where we're getting at, but east I' I'd maybe like something down around 99 cents on that. Uh, nuro didn't we already hit this one? We did. That's right. Is she coming back? She coming back for more. Average volume's up 31% today or 31% 31,000 per that is. Um Dbg for start on the low side now. Gmbl, Gmbl mea MSS that's that one that got pumped yesterday.
M Wait yeah right. 55 Hm. Yeah, that's I mean maybe I mean it have to recross up but too too active for me let other people around there. Yeah, maybe A17 DTC Again, like this is like building the ideas of what like which ones could you know and then from there it's like okay, do they have news? What's float? You could start looking at all that if you really want to.
and but there's a lot going on. Well, not really a lot going on. There's always a lot going on, but J O might have missed this. Yeah, no, not really.
No. Well, maybe. actually. um no.
wait, what what the hell's going on here? Something's off. There it is I just couldn't see it. Okay, yeah, nah, see. this is just not.
no. it's not the one. just not it. Not that it doesn't have a good move, it's just just ain't it for me.
No risk ain't there. could be later, but not now. I mean this actually might have some action. yeah OTL y Um, you'd need that to get back over about A109 for volatility.
What was it going to say like SX I mean it got you know started pumping here at 730. Um, but you know it's got some. Got some activity. Maybe 47 cents.
Could be an area where you want to snag somewhere in there. All right. what else we got here. all right.
getting some more alerts on my skin, skin. let's see what else we got in here. VFS Well VFS was always there. sxtc did I just look at that one.
No, but probably looked at a bit ago. um sxtc blew up there. it's coming down a bit I got to get my maybe I should do that instead. Yeah, let's do that.
Why isn't it? Who knows? H Smfl H Debatable here. Yeah, that's got some potential. Yeah. I mean it definitely has some potential.
Da is here one two again. would would kind of like a re R Trace There would need more of a retrace on something like this. may or may not give it you know in the time frame you're looking. but as far as Z St this did I don't know what that is adtx down doing that weird stuff, who? whatever.
uh and the other thing too that's that is also important. Today is like while you're going through and you're looking at stocks, you're thinking like what's going to work, what may not work at the bottom you at the end of the day. Um, it also does come down to like the Spy things like that. Also, you know small cap market and whatnot.
but you know, like right now the market. Obviously if you're looking paying close attention, well let me take this and go. equities. I mean so if you look at this here, I mean I'm not going to get into all we could look at momentum and blah blah blah blah. but you know my bias is is not that the Market's not strong, it's just that, um yeah, it's not that the Market's not strong. Since we kind of had like we've been getting these kind of whipsaw potential sell signals and choppy moves. So it's like if the market is going to give any sort of relax when and if that does happen when it happens because it always does happen eventually. That's usually when you'll have a little bit of a Slowdown in penny stocks and to be super selective.
but when the market is, uh, when the Market's running hot high, that's generally where anything will just fly for that matter. Uh I still use Trading View again? Yeah, I mean it's I use Stinker Swim Trading View I Really want to get Optimus software but it's just kind of expensive and it's like I mean it's not that it's that expensive, but it's like do I really need it another software I Don't know. good morning Min I N M Y'all yes Xander it has been. Yeah, so we we did take a peek of that a little bit earlier.
Um, wait a second. Did I I didn't make a mistake. No I didn't make no Wa did I no I did no no no no yeah. I was going to say this the the pump for me.
The alert started for me this morning at about 5:00 right and then launch and so it's not that it won't keep going, it's again, it's just for me. I like to be in early early and if not, then I'll just probably leave it alone. Speaking of Minm, where is this all right? So if you're looking at Min NM you know you're basically coming into plus three standard error plus four stand standard error plus three standard deviation plus four standard deviation. So realistically, it's a great sell.
Point Um, if you're lucky, it somehow squeezes out and does an outlier event. But basically what I'm getting at is most of the time and this is a normal distribution. Um, stocks are not normally distributed. The returns of stocks are not normally distributed in the stock market.
That being said, you can have outlier events. So as much as we like to think that this is resistance, which many, many times it pretty much is. And So Based on normal distribution returns of this equity and this asset, this stock this security. Theoretically you should be selling it to whoever whoever is buying it this morning.
Here you should be selling. You should be exchanging your shares to them. Not this doesn't go from 4.8 to 10 or 20 For it to do that, you would need an outlier event. Okay, that's that's hard to come across.
Yes, you. There might be ways to have better inclination that it would do something like that. We're not going there. The bottom line is to think logically and logically it would be this is nearing the statistical upper distribution of the security.
Does it go into an outlier event? Maybe. Will it probably not. Yes, So should I keep holding? Maybe I decrease. So those are the way I Think your brain should be slightly operating and now I'll take we'll look at Vvo I'll show you Vbos ready. So um so basically see see look at this. see see see the purple. see the blue pumps into slam down Now we go to what was it M I N M. Was that the one we were just looking at? Yeah, go to M I N M.
Where are we getting see that blue purple So based on a normal uh I'm probably saying is not R name wrong Goian Gossan distribution which is the expectation normal distribution which stock market's not normally distributed. um you would be in You' be in statistically overbought levels. Um now looking at uh back to Vvos. Okay, so now I want to show you guys what this looks like.
So so take a statistical probability. Channel Let's map the prices off and I'll kind of show you the psychology behind it. So in here you may not notice it. But this is a 6mon trend.
So I'm just going to map off two red lines for the six-month Trend Now we're going to go there. Okay, so this right here. This Zone I Actually just make it a zone right here. This this area right here.
you see how it pretty much topped Vvos for a long time. Went into a flag and squeezed to Mania. So this zone right here. Okay, this is what I and many others would call a 6mon six month.
Um, + three + 4 normal distribution level. And you would have to know what plus 3 + 4 standard deviation means to understand what I'm saying a little better, but basically means it's a statistically overbought level. at least on the sixth month can very well be used as a place of shorting. So I Just know for a fact that people were buying this.
Some people were shorting this blah blah blah blah blah. So what ended up happening yesterday is when the the price of Vbos got to 1860, it had had at that point reached a 6mon statistically overbought normal distribution level. Statistically overbought levels become good areas of selling and shorting. So to me it looks like this was just a low float.
very active lot of shares churning. Probably got some shorts in involved and this thing blew up from what many would determine could be a top 6 month plus 3 plus 4 wasn't. So look at what happens as soon as you exit that zone. All right.
So it comes in, tops, hangs, and then blows up. So this would be the 6 month plus three normal distribution level getting taken out. Once that would occur, we would normally look up towards like plus three plus4 standard deviation on the yearly and that would end up being being this guy and this guy. And there's a little more to it than that, but that's pretty much you know.
Bottom line is this huge breakout. Came at your six-month normal distribution top. Um, probably had some shorts here. Then the shorts got blown up all the way to here.
And that's the nice thing about understanding statistics. And again, since markets aren't normally distributed, it doesn't always work perfect. Sometimes it will work perfect. Um, but being able to visually see and interpret the probability, statistics or probability of distribution of a security, you would be able to see something like that like hey, the market's at the six-month Trend Yes, people might sell it here, and if they do end up squeezing out, then where would they go? So for example, yesterday if I was watching Vvos online with you guys in real time and the market started to break out of this 1860, I would just tell you it's going right up to 25 and then if it breaks over this and holds is going to go from 25 to 31. and if it breaks over here from 33, it's going to go from 33 into the 40s and then once you get here, that's That's pretty much where you should just expect the Market's going to sell off and if it doesn't it's doing what we would call like an extreme extreme outlier event. So yeah, but anyways, that's that's enough on Vbos. Um East Oh look at East Boy see I never got the did I get the dip and I just missed it. No nope I didn't just never got the dip I wanted and that's okay sometimes and maybe it's going to come later right? So this is one we were looking at earlier was like a dollar something or whatever I mean pretty much went through this dip so from the last dips up 30% it's not bad.
but yeah, just never really got that did. um Cory So yeah so there. so there's no way to know for sure cuz obviously the stock market you have to incorporate Randomness and but basically your question is is how could I forell that this isn't a top? Therefore, you would be looking at some sort of indicators that would be helping you gauge momentum Is momentum. still favoring up or is momentum dramatically dropping off a cliff in a known potential top area? So you'd have to be.
Basically, your question comes down to a momentum based analysis approach in that moment in time. So as the market gets there, that's where you need to shift your attention to momentum based indicators or strategy. If you're asking the question, how do I know if this is not a top? Well, the only things that can tell you something is weakening or is a top are momentum based rate of change studies and indicators. No price level is going to do that for you because you could be like oh, it's bullish over this and then the price pops up and you know you know what I'm saying like so you know there there's that.
All right. So kind of. look through some stuff. there's a little activity, some things have already moved, you know, So be it.
Um, like I said I've already mentioned a couple couple imgn. this is new Yeah, what is this I don't even know Resume Trade 8 A.m. I don't know. whatever that is something.
Oh what a scam on Kroger oh those what a freaking scuzzy. Um one second I mean your question about if you're wrong and it breaks out and goes I mean yeah I mean like that's kind of I mean to two degree lack of yeah, it's pretty much you. Pretty much that all right. Like I said before now I'm going to start looking at some SPX stuff. um Imgn up that big with a big gap May Again, it's probably I don't know, looks like a buyout. Yeah, it's going to be acquired by ABB Uh, Abbb I don't even know I forgot their name how to say that but whatever or is it Abbot No, it's not abbit. Yeah, so it's a buyou. so um, real quick.
All right, so you're seeing this, you're going. Oh, look at Imgm, look at the huge gap like oh, should we short it oh should we buy it? If you read the news here, it's going to say Abbv 10.1 billion deal to buy Imgn. So let me explain this for every person in the chat room right now. If I came to you and said I'm going to buy your car for $5,000 and I tell the entire world I'm going to buy it for $5,000 then the entire world knows that the car is worth $5,000 So why should anyone else after me Now knowing the car is worth $5,000 Buy this.
Buy the car for more than 5,000 They won't Therefore, this company just just got bought out by another company. So one company came and bought this company and said we're going to give you 10 billion The company goes. Okay, that's a fair deal So both of the companies got an agreement, said this is what the company's worth. Buy me.
There you go. So that comes down to efficient market hypothesis. Everything that can possibly be known about the company imgn right now is known and the price is efficient. The price of the market has moved to reflect that of what the investors Andor participants of of this Market have agreed upon.
Someone just spent 10 billion and someone just got 10 billion and the two people that made that exchange says this is what it's worth And now that information is entirely publicly known and as you can see the result straight up to its price, leaving no time for anybody else to buy it. Hence, efficient market. All right. All right.
Uh SPX Whoa those boys. Okay so let's see. SP X send you all right 706 Whoa. Why are those? Oh well, Maybe yeah, that would make more sense I Guess Eight 563 um for so for example and not that this is like guaranteed and not that it couldn't change and blah blah blah.
but like for example, going $5 out of the money on calls and puts this morning for SPX and um yeah, just SPX yeah. so going $5 out of the money calls puts. right now you have more activity on it's actually higher volume on the put. I Don't call it five out of the money but F yeah Five five strikes out of the money.
So as far as um, average volume I'm getting more volume alerted as far as that goes, I'm getting some what may be a momentum on the put side could still be early. We have a lot of time till the open. A lot of things can change. So again today we got pretty big data.
Oh gosh, yeah, we got some pretty big announcements. initial jobs CLS personal income personal spending PC Court Pc Pc Pc Pc So decent amount of data coming out all from 8:30 to 9:. So let's see about another 22 minutes. Market Probably is going to get a little volatility. Let me just double check some more SPX stuff real quick. Well actually I probably should do a little deeper analysis on the Spy too. it's about. it's just funny, doesn't it make sense? Anys all right So let's see.
SPX spy all broke down yesterday so that's 30 minute. so I don't even have a cross. but we could try this gu and we'll go with this guy about there. Me: Okay, A damn it.
so that's right there. Okay okay so that would be through there. Back to there the upper distributions would be so already done That: Okay now the top down boy is here All right so we are coming into So right now the S&P 500 SL probably SPX I Got to double check SPX but SPX is coming into its top down volume weighted average price. Let's pop this Byx.
Well really this should be spy. This should be SPX So you might get some resistance here when I say might it's pretty good chance. Um, we'll see some resistance on that. but that's right.
if I do this, that means Four Five 638, 4 Five 6, 38 Mother Trucker Four Five Six that's good enough. I'll take off this guy c New Day Okay so basically I'll kind of explain here a little bit. Um, is that yeah, that's the Spy so this going to be right there. so I'll just explain real quick.
Kind of this. pretty much what I'm doing all right. So I'm looking at the spy and I'm basically tracking like this big top down. so this top down we basically they had a big sell off yesterday then kind of rolled one may go.
Is this sort of the market trying to top itself, etc, etc etc. Maybe Maybe right? And if so then whoever started this top move and been bearish. ideally they would like to keep the move down. Well anyone, all the volumes starting from this top and down tracking bearish ideally would have like an average volume of 45 623 on spy.
So essentially if the market is going to ENT stay down. you know in the immediate you'd assume like this could very well be a top spot. uh and so on so forth. Right now we have data coming up so we're just going to wait for data and things like that.
but this is just me kind of getting levels in in place and things like that. Um, yep. so this doesn't mean you're bearish or anything like that. The Market's actually positive right now cuz we're over the 50.
SMA So we're more of an up motion move attacking resistance points. Um, real quick. Uh, if we look at the Spy again, so let me show you real quick. see this: 50 SMA that red one in there? That's the 50 SMA So basically this price right here on my chart that I'll make a yellow line.
Settings: Yellow all right. So right there. That yellow line that's that that is is right. Yeah, that was A. that's the location of the 50 SMA So this yellow line kind of dictate it's an over under level. so if it gets acceptance below Market can roll down If it doesn't then Market pops up right. So you can basically see that is that correct is that it's this can actually be moved up just a hair right about there. So yeah, pretty much yesterday Market got a little bearish below the 50.
This is the bounce back to retest: the breakdown of the 5050. push away more more or less creates a flag, breaks up and pop. There you go. So Market kind of did a little over under move in the after hours.
Uh, why is the middle I don't have a middle one? you might be. Oh, you're probably talking about these ones and there's a reason for it. I I Basically I Track You know it could be. It's actually, it's not a really a straightforward answer.
but I guess the simplest way is I'm tracking uh, volume of moving average breaks. so like for example, uh, let me show you go back here. All right. So this what I'm going to show you works well with like when things are trending obviously.
But ideally this is a Buy Signal So we're just all going to agree right now on the stream without asking questions that that vertical line right there. That's that's just a Buy Signal Okay, and then from here, I'm going to do this. going to throw an anchor here. Uh, inputs.
All right. So pretty much let's go back to Friday November 10th the market breaks up, runs then the following day, this would be my Bu point right there. Those yellow lines see that. That's my buy point right there.
Okay, so basically here's a Buy Signal And you said, what are the reasons for the anchors in the middle I Think that's what you're referring to. So we're all going to agree this: vertical lines of Buy Signal and then we're all going to agree. Um, and then after I tell you this I'm probably going to not say it again because and people be stealing all stuff. but you know I want my strategies to keep working as effectively as possible for as long as possible So that way I don't have to sit and revamp strategies for hours and whatever.
But um, you know. So we all agree. this white line, it's a Buy Signal Uh and then from there I am tracking the key moving averages that broke to then create such Buy Signal So essentially Market goes into a Buy Signal We know why it went into a Buy Signal Now we're tracking the volume of those that created the Buy Signal and if they want the trend to continue, then they're most likely going to remain or and or hold their volume weight at average price of the Buy Signal and that would be the yellow line. Okay and then from here, the next part of the strategy is if you were to miss this bounce, do you get in you would look for the continuation volume weight average price uh long which I might have to use a pre-market chart to kind of show you that um but yeah, we'll maybe save that for another day. um or like here's another one that I use. Sometimes it be the Gap up, uh Gap up. Uh yeah, so you be would it be this low? So like anchoring to a big gap and there's your next dip there. um, and or anchoring to the start of a gap.
And here's your dip. So there's a couple different strategies for anchoring View apps Those are kind of some discretionary ones I just showed you but you know and then I will I will reshow you this once more time. See this. I'm going to redo this whole process for you guys.
Ready All right? So we are all going to agree that right here. let me show you this vertical line right? So we're all going to agree. this vertical line that white one that's a Buy Signal Okay so from here I'm going to in this Cas Is this the right time frame? Yes it is. Oh okay.
well this is the buy hold. Let me use my brain a little bit more because we go over under. Yeah so if this is the Buy Signal and we would be anchoring somewhere like right there and the split up. Um, but yeah, you get the point.
Okay and this is a no premarket chart so you can't it I Use pre-market and no premarket. so like let me show it to you on like a no premarket or a pre-market real quick. Okay so ideally this would be our and you. oh wait, did I not do that? Oh I didn't change it.
I'm like it doesn't like something's not right here. it's not making sense one second and then after this I'm going to take a second for myself and just kind of chill out and get my mind straight. Okay, so this one was a little different, but for this one I was originally starting like down here and essentially that would give me so you see where the vertical line is. This one's a little different.
but basically this is the Buy Signal On this moment, I started anchoring here and that would told me to buy essentially that dip right there, right? Okay, now if we go to basically the original rules of the Strat without manipulating a little bit, Ideally, it would have started here and then the buy point would have been right here for this, Strat right there. Okay, and then as long as that volume weighted average price stays intact, the current Buy Signal moves intact and you can see we haven't taken that out so we're still well above that. Um, and then I'll show you the Vwap continuation strategy, right? So after the market bottoms here into our desired volume weight average PR of such Buy Signal move, we would then anchor to this low and then that gives you your next dip location. and then after that dip, you would anchor to this low and this would give you your next dip location, dip, Buy.
But the market gapped up and ran away. Therefore, you don't get the test of it and actually you get it like basically right there. but I wouldn't really count that. Um, so there's a lot of strategy there. Uh, but it's all pretty much same thing. Um, so like for example, right, you see how I said oh, like the market gaps up and we don't get a tag of our vaps. That's where we then start deploying the Gap up system. strats where Gap up systems we would look for.
um we would look for 161. Target So like on this day pretty much we said the market was going to Rally up to about 428. so again you can see Gap 161. Then on the following day our Target for this move on the Gap was about fourth.
uh, 43457 and then so those are how you're kind of looking for Gap targets. and then aside from that by measuring um by measuring an actual Gap up, you can get some bounce points and things like that be like here and so on so forth. So yeah, you get the point. uh, you can.
it's just hard. That's why I don't do it. Oh OSB you have to do it for a really long time. Um I don't know if you're new to my stream or no of me which doesn't either or um, but you know it takes long time, lot of practice and like even I'm studying and going through exams and be certified as a financial Technical analyst and then I might even get like my series 65.
So I've been in the investment space for a long time doing analysis and then I want to take a step further and get certified as a financial technical uh anal is analyst as well. um but so you basically I mean dude I was at the computer yesterday from I don't know 7:00 till 11: doing this, looking at stocks, analyzing, volume option, studying and I'll do that four days a week sometimes. So I could be at my computer studying and working and doing all of this for 10 12 hours a day. and then you extrapolate that over 10 12 years, you know you can move through a chart effectively.
Um, then from there it's really just all psychology. Once you have strategy down and you got things that you trust, it just comes down to psychology and risk and not doing any CRA anything freaking crazy, you know. So that's what I mean. that's basically it.
You know I could run through all of that stuff endlessly because my brain's full of it. Um, you remember how I said earlier that basically the Spy 45625 can be some resistance and because we're tracking the top down bearish move. So just again, let's go back. Uh, I'm actually going to yeah I got to take this back to wait.
What am I doing? That's premarket. So I don't need that. So yeah, remember how we said earlier, we were tracking the top down volume weighted average price of this move. All right.
And that price point is 45623 Right now, we come into the chart here. where is the market kind of getting some resistance? See, that's 45625 45623 Little over under, blah blah blah blah. So I know why the Market's hesitating here? Whether it's because of this level or not, it makes sense to me. So again, whether it's true, whether it's not true, it makes sense to me Market's holding resistance there as an expected right. That was an expected level where we could see some resistance. We got data coming out in 6 minutes. So basically the way this is going to work is either dat is pad and just dumps this from here or data is good and it squeezes out shorts from yesterday or whatever. Um, I'm not necessarily bias any way or versus one way or the other on the announcement.
Uh I am biased on the upside in the sense that we're over the 50 SMA Sure, but doesn't mean that you couldn't retrace back to 50 SMA and so on so forth. Oh, anyways, I'm going to go get a fresh coffee I'll catch you back in a sec. but OSB actually to answer your question without giving you some sort of lack luster, it just takes a lot of effort. I mean if you want you, could you know study some CMT stuff? It's not going to necessarily teach you all the things I'm showing you here right now, but you know it can give you some indication it can teach Hance you uh Ash Ashish uh Vwap book I know? um Brian Shannon He has a he's written a few books on the volume weight at average price.
uh a yeah I've never read it um I actually taught myself everything I know about anchored vaps and all that and how I apply it and use it and um uh, he uses them uh in different ways than I do Um te each their own you know? So if you if you read his book, that would be like the best book on the market. Regarding uh, anchor V apps. it may or may not touch on how I use them just just like just so happens that you know we tend to do the same thing so you know he does them a little differently than I do, but all generally the same concept. picking a significant Point anchoring to it, tracking the volume of such significant point, right? Um, so yeah, that guy and he's also a Cmt2.
So Brian Shannon is a certified Market uh, technician or certified Market technical analyst. That's currently what I'm in the works of becoming Um which also means I am legally able to provide all of you Financial technical analysis even though I already have for many years and everyone does on YouTube and Twitter even though they're not certified to do so I'm not saying they should or shouldn't be. um but for me it was kind of one of those one of those things like morally and right from wrong. also to learn more and and try my best to you know be on the right side of moves and help people know that the information I'm giving is in fact valid.
Uh, and in the best interest to the individuals that I'm showing. Um, you know so uh, that was another reason why I wanted to become a CMT is to, uh, more legitimize the information that I'm providing to individuals and know that it comes from a good, uh, academic level. Uh, and you know I don't even want to call it honesty, but you know just truest of true. You know, try to be true as I can't with the information so that we know it's you know, valuable, right and not some fugazy. Fugazy ads are going to pop up in 46 seconds. You can click off the stream if if you like or you can do me a favor and when the stream comes on, click their website for me and then come back to the stream. All right guys. So again, I'm going to be hopping off here in probably the next, like, you know, like 5 10 minutes or so.
Um, but yeah, I'm going to try to do a little bit more of these. It's a really busy time for me. I got three houses I'm working on I got one Uh, I got one rental that we're putting renters in I got another home that we're doing some repairs on before we get renters in. then I got a new home I'm in that you know of course the wife needs a whole new laundry room and so I got to build that out.
And of course I want to build out a garage so you know, just crazy times. Then on top of studying for the CMT exam and then all the other stuff, right? just busy busy, so you know, hopefully when that all slows down a little bit, I'll be able to be a little bit more active on our morning streams. Um, but yeah, probably be doing a little bit more of these as long as my internet doesn't get whacked or something. Okay, so data is coming out, obviously.
so let's see what we got here on Data Spy. Yeah, Okay, so the Market's juicing up, so let's I'm just going to take another quick peek here. Start with start with that. So 455s.
oh the brain is so full of too much too much. Uh, okay. Okay, so let me think so. All right.
So are you puppies thinking we can go back to the high? So that would be 4570 1003, 1, 3, 46, Green 648 Um, 245. All right, let's go back to the put. All right we 2009. Really, the 453 is interesting.
What about 5,000 Okay, all right8 that's interesting. So why the discrepancy? It must not be the ones 15 and close to money. Seven, Double Check. You guys? Eight Two four.
Okay, so that's two out. What about you Two out? Two out. What about you? What about you two Interesting. What about you? 87? You five? You know it's not the easiest read this morning? Um, I Mean it does look like we got more activity on the put side this morning.
When I'm going through the chains, it's like more people are active. There's there's higher average volume on some out of- the money puts this morning on SPX versus the out-of the money calls Again, Does that guarantee the Market's going to go down? No. But it does make me kind of interested as to why. Right now, you know markets are kind of on the upside.
but why is it that we kind of have slightly higher average volume across some of the puts, whether little closer to the money or out of the money? So that's what I'm kind of. You know, still thinking about like Market's up this morning. but average volume across a lot of the puts is higher, so you know we're going to see. You know, higher activity on the put side, You know? Uh, then again, I mean yesterday we had, uh, we had put volume in like the average volume of like 75,000 So it's like this morning I'm only getting readings of like twos two. FS There might have been like a 5,000 in there I Forgot about. but we're not getting readings off the charts like yesterday. But regardless of off the charts or not doesn't mean that the market doesn't move good, blah blah blah. So you know, just getting readings across the board on the more of the put side and as you can see Market's cting get a little bit slapped.
We're starting to slap the market a little bit a little. Slappy Slappy You know and where are we back? Bring that back. bring a bit. All right.
So again, that red line. You know this red line I did not derive that resistance. potential resistance Point by looking left on a chart right? Um, not that I don't do that. but it's like this: This resistance Point potential resistance point was not derived by going.
let's look left and go. Oh, this top tier theand split. Yeah, sideways, it's not. It's not how I operate generally.
Um, so just an FYI uh Sam That's a great question which would realistically take me like a decade to answer because there's a there is a it, it's just there's a lot I could go over on that like I have different ways and even I get it wrong too. sometimes. um or don't know well enough to to try to make a decision on it right? and so um, and that's part of it, right? It's not designed to be easy. Nothing is in this game.
Um, so um. but I'll give you a small something I've been working on, but it's a anything. Let me rephrase this. Anything that has to do with confirming a level.
there is a give and a take and this is how it works. The longer you wait for confirmation, the better the confirmation. But you reduce the reward. Okay, the less time you wait for confirmation or the parameters at which you seek to use for confirmation.
if those parameters are weaker, then the opportunity for reward goes up by getting in earlier. But then risk becomes elevated for false signals. So really, what you're doing or what you need to do? not. Basically what I'm getting at is whether it's something that I help you with via a stream or you go out tonight and you start playing around with some stuff and you find some stuff you think works.
Basically, what you're doing is you're seeking out tools or ways to give you confidence or confirmation of a break above or below the 50 SMA right? And the weaker or stronger you set those parameters or those rules, whatever they may be. Um is going to dictate risk to reward in the sense of confirmation or false signaling not necessarily like draw down. Factor Uh, even though that is kind of Incorporated too. Um, So yeah.
I'm going to end it there at 8:37 I Got to get off this stream and hop onto a new stream with some of our private members. that is is not an advertisement to go to my website and sign up and all that Do not. Just don't even do it right Again, We got a lot changing. I Would rather you guys not try to like anything but got another stream to hop on to at about 9:00 Um, but yes, just yep. So I will uh, try to be back on tomorrow with you guys for a bit and uh yeah, we'll go from there. All All right guys. take care and I will, uh catch you on the next one. Uh, the only thing I guess I really ask these days is just if you can share our stream to like places that would make sense to share them.
Um thumbs up the videos like them. Um, it does help and I've gone through a whole Whirlwind of troubles on the YouTube uh so yeah, that would be greatly appreciated. Thank you guys and uh yeah. basically it's not that we're not open, not that our chat room's not open I Just kind of say it's not because like we're just not trying to bring on a bunch of people.
um because we just want to. U Basically you say the logistic processes of the company right now are not the best as far as like you pay here, then you got to do this and you got to. It's not easy. it's not an easy flow.
I Just want someone to come in, they want to join us. They just click here. Click here. Boom.
It's done right. and it always seems like these chat rooms and trading rooms and everything's just so freaking out of place and it's just hard to. It's because no one provides like one service where it's like hey, let me just give you some money, give me a chat room, give me a streaming platform. Uh, allow me to upload videos like let me just make an online store whever but it doesn't work that way.
It's like you have the Discord then you have to have strip payment processing over here and then you got to build a bot that connects your Discord with this thing or there's some new ones and and but just none of them all have everything you need. So I've been doing this for too damn long I know for sure I've I've gone through so many scenarios, right? It's like there isn't just one platform. It's like hey, you can stream on here. You can run a chat room on here.
You can run multiple chat rooms you can take in payment. We can remove people if they're not paying, add people if they are paying. upgrade, downgrade all in one someone. There's some out there, but the limitations on them are are you know? So that's what we're trying to do is just kind of tighten it up, make the flow for the customer significantly easier than what it is right now, which then makes our job a little easier so as opposed to like putting people into an old dinosaur system when we're going to upgrade hopefully to 2024 just doesn't really make sense right? I could be like yeah, give us your money and but nah n dude, just we'll just wait and you know when when we're ready we're ready right? So uh, all right. so I will uh, talk to you guys probably tomorrow if you aren't in our chat room and not say anyways I'll catch you guys tomorrow if you're on stream. Appreciate you guys and uh, see you later.