What's going on guys welcome back to the channel, appreciate you guys tuning in with me this morning, so on friday we had a big sell-off that followed to a really big afternoon rally bounce over the weekend and into friday afternoon you probably heard a lot about the Market bottoming maybe saw some articles and traders talking about markets gapping up going long today. So there's a lot of discussions of whether or not markets are going to be rallying a bit here so for now, it's too soon to really call a rally. The first thing being that we have not yet gotten the blue to cross the red. Now that possibly changes today, because when the market opens, these moving averages will adjust a bit.

But for now we have not yet had the blue cross over the red, which means we are not currently in a short-term rally like we were here. Okay, so you can think of this current bounce that you saw friday similar to that of this bounce. Here, where market was selling down, we had a bounce following day we gapped up and then once we got the cross markets kind of held for a bit. So for now this should just be seen as an oversold bounce that has not yet had a true momentum cross to hold a rally for days to come.

Now it could change, but for the time being, that's the case all right. So now, when we look at the chart, this is an oversold bounce. This is the six-month statistical resistance on the spy and the nasdaq is pretty much same location all right. This is the six month resistance or sorry, that's weekly resistance on the nasdaq six month.

On the spy, but either way, concept is statistical resistance, statistical resistance, okay - and let me change this time frame to a five day here. We go so statistical resistance on the spy, statistical resistance on the nasdaq. So we know from the last breakdown which was kind of this move right, so we break down retest retest run away from it that this oversold bounce has come all the way back to that same level. This is where a lot of sellers hop to the market.

So unless you actually go through this point, you're not going to be seeing any more aggressive moves up. You'll actually see this trend probably resume down. Okay, now, in the event, the uh, the market on the nasdaq, just in general, the spy uh continues back down. You should see the market on the nasdaq, probably target down to 287 and the nasdaq would target back down somewhere like like 390 389 33 for the time being, um.

Arguably all the way back down to uh. You know like 386 385.. So taking a step back, you can say to yourself unless the market actually goes up and above pretty much the pre-market high today on the spy in the pre-market high in the nasdaq there's not a whole lot of long bias. Movement uh to be had okay and there's a good chance.

You see this gets sold back into targeting 287s to 389s and that could change a little bit depending on how the levels update going into the open um. But for sure one thing is true: we haven't gotten a bullish cross, yet this is just an oversold bounce. Getting pushed back up until we get that momentum cross. Here we can't really be on a couple day.

Swing rally should just be used as an oversold bounce that is still going to be getting sold into now. I, based on my analysis, still believe the market is going to go down to 364 into this purple area and once we get into the purple area, that's where we're going to start to get, and it probably won't look look like that. But you know once we were to make ourselves down into this pricing area, that's where we're going to start to see more aggressive, rallies that try to sustain their moves. So it's my expectation, markets, stay bearish down until pretty much this point, these purple lines and then we'll actually see a market short term bottom bounce and rally.

Now it's also true. I could be wrong, and maybe we do actually trend up here over the next couple days and if that's going to happen, what we would be looking for again is the over kind of this 394 level on the spy and the reason. Why is because the last breakdown was here runs down, then we bounce and we start to get resistance right about here, which is the six months trend. So we know that, in order to get a run, we have to get through this and then the trend can go from 394 up to about 402, which is next screen lines up all right, so concept is this: is the breakdown sell-off? This is the re-test of the breakdown in order to get a big bullish push.

We have to clear this resistance in which you would target to 402 now, obviously, if that doesn't happen, the trend just continues to resume down and you're going to be targeting bearish. All the way back to this level, this level, this level, and just so on so forth and down until we get to about 364 and then i think we're going to get a rally, and that is today's video for you guys. So everybody take care, have a great day and i'll see you in the next one.