Come on man. I'm at the pool and now we potentially gotta go to World War Three. What is this? With fighter jets being scrambled and people dying in Poland What is this? Well folks, let's break down everything that's going on. because the stock market is fading. its rally under fears that maybe World War Three is a foot. Let's break down what's actually happening and then let's get into some reasonable or I should say reason to potential conclusions. So here's what just happened: the Associated Press is reporting that two missiles that were aiming for Ukraine potentially Ukrainian infrastructure have accidentally landed on a Polish grain drying Processing Unit in Poland on some kind of farm and two people have died. This is clearly an attack on Poland but the definition of attack is going to be very, very important here. Was it intentional or on intentional. Is that a false flag? Was this a bomb that was planted? Was it Ukraine A lot of questions, but before we get into questions, let's think about what this potentially means and why this is happening. So after Russia got booted out of Kershawn Okay, and this was pretty embarrassing for Russia and they completely retreated out of this eastern city. Now remember, croissant is actually really important because it gives a strategic advantage to Ukrainian troops for actually attacking Crimea which is just south east of this, and a relatively strong strategically starting point for taking Crimea back. Of course, taking Crimea back has always been a huge goal ever since Ukraine lost it. And remember the 2014 quote-unquote illegal annexation of Crimea has left tensions in the region between Ukraine and Russia. For the last eight years, these tensions have never really been resolved and so this is part of the disaster that continues to go on. But anyway, in retaliation for this, apparently Russia has shelled the snap out of Ukraine today and a half of the capital is now without power as multiple infrastructure plants were hit. One resident was actually killed in a residence tower that was hit and now it looks like a couple missiles have accidentally accidentally landed in Poland. Now Poland is a member of not only the European Union, but it's also a member of NATO. Not only is it a member of NATO, but some folks like to argue that Poland is actually a little bit more of an aggressive Warhawk if you will. Here's a picture of a pretty uh, popular cartoon that gets circulated Poland waiting for a Russian missile fragment to hit their territory so they can trigger Article Five We'll talk about what that is in a moment and you kind of see them as almost like a rabbit or angry dog and a calm NATO trying to hold the leash. In other words, trying to hold them back. Here is an image of when we got the breaking news of this attack and sort of what the attack looks like here: Polish: A fighter jets have been scrambled and the uh, the Prime Minister of Poland is now convening a special and emergency meeting to discuss this attack. Now, in my opinion, there are going to be some very important things that just get discussed at this meeting. The most important thing is is this actually the beginning of an attack on Poland? Probably not. Was this either a false flag operation a Ukrainian operation or an unintentional attack by by Russia One of those three things, Quite more likely improbable that it's one of those three things. And so this is where Poland has to now investigate. Determine Okay, what is the extent of this is this? A continuing attack or is this an isolated incidence? Then the phrase attack is actually going to be very, very important because of how Article 5 is written. So Art Article 5 is the collective Defense article with NATO This is very important, so let's go ahead and look at this together: Collective Defense means that an attack against one Ally is considered an attack against all allies. The principle of collective defense is enshrined in Article 5 of the Washington trade Treaty and NATO first invoked Article 5 after the 9 11 attacks. And the important thing here is the way you can invoke. This is basically, if you deem you are under attack, you can request that an emergency session of a NATO be convened. and then you could potentially at that meeting as a single member, invoke Article 5. Now, I don't think that politically Poland and the other members of NATO Of course, the United States being the largest one of that will have any kind of uh or allow any kind of confusion amongst whether or not lot Article 5 will be getting invoked. Now What I mean by that is I Believe if Article 5 is going to get invoked, everyone who is part of NATO will already have like behind the scenes agreed. Yes, Go ahead and invoke it. We're ready now. Unfortunately, that means NATO troops more NATO troops. Should I say potentially going to which many of them are American potentially going to secure the Border even more over at Poland Does this potentially mean air defense systems getting moved to Poland? Does it Potentially. And this is even worse because the United, States and NATO members have vowed to defend every inch of NATO Does it potentially mean NATO troops moving into Ukraine so that they can protect every inch of NATO right? Every to protect NATO You don't want to be fighting on NATO territory, You fight right outside of that battle line. but now you're fighting Russia Basically because Russia is obviously in Ukraine now, most of Russian troops are on the Eastern side. but this is absolutely a concern. Now again: I Don't think that all of a sudden out of some meeting, we're gonna get pulling going. That's it we want to do Article 5 I I Would expect there would be some kind of political cohesion here, because think about this: if Poland says Article Five and then all the other countries are like this was a mistake, this was unintentional, Then it looks like you have no cohesion and NATO actually looks really weak in front of Russia which is really bad. NATO needs to look unified. Now in the past we have actually had NATO and the United States and secretary blink and say things like not only will we defend every inch of NATO but they've gone as far as saying even an unintentional attack will be retaliated against. Now they're either gonna have to eat those words or they're gonna have to act on those I Think they will act however they do in unison, but obviously markets are shifting down on this news because if this is the beginning of a NATO versus Russia then we essentially have World War Three. Now nobody wants to actually. uh, talk about that because that's scary. Not only does that now reintroduce this idea of nuclear weapons, but it is just a complete a complete crisis. So let me go ahead and pull up the latest potential news here since this is a breaking story here. Again, we've got fighter jets a scrambled a two dead. A lot of this having to do with the attack by Uh Russian missiles that were launched on infrastructure today and we are expecting okay here we go. Polish government to hold a meeting at Eight a GMT So GMT right now at the time of this recording it is 7 14 and that is it's currently 114 Eastern time So at 2 P.m eastern time in the United States this meeting will be held and so I would expect that meeting could potentially take an hour two hours tops after the meeting and the the investigative results or at least preliminary investigative results I would expect. Oh, it looks like Hungary Hungary is also holding now a defense meeting but anyway way I would expect that after these meetings are held over the next two hours here, they will then correspond with their Associated members within NATO But also the United States seek advice or input or whatever they want to do and ultimately we will get some kind of I would expect statement and update as to how Poland wants to treat this and how NATO wants to react to this. Obviously it's leading stocks lower right now. It is creating fear the Pentagon is stating they cannot corroborate reports of these two missiles Again, we don't know. Is it actually a bomb or these missiles? Uh, who who launched them? That's probably the most important part. Now Now of course there's commentary like hey, this is a huge game changer Maybe World War III will will stop the fed from hiking rates although Wars tend to create more inflation which would mean a larger rate increases so no matter which way you slice this, it's bad. My expectation is the Russians just screwed up now. I Don't want to excuse that because two people in in NATO and in the EU just died because of Russia's War right? So there's going to be some kind of retaliation from NATO and Western countries, but are those going to be sanctions? or are those going to be a buffering up of defenses at the Polish line? Worst thing would be some kind of buffering up of defenses that actually moves into Ukraine. Either way, I'll keep you updated with information. Thank you so much for watching. We'll see in the next one. Goodbye.