Hey everyone kevin here after the california gubernatorial campaign, we had visions of creating something awesome, and this is separate from the series, a thing that we've got going on. That's the newest latest and greatest uh iteration of what our plans are, which we've been working on for. Quite a while now over the course of about a year, but in addition to that plan that longer term plan, we had these visions of creating a stock brokerage and offering new features like fractional options and auto wheeling on options. And so many really neat features that just are missing in the broader stock brokerage realm right now i mean think about auto wheeling so cool uh.

Now anyway, since then, some of our ideas have actually started coming into the market, so we wonder like. Oh, can somebody hear about ideas but either way it's fine like these are things that are missing and needed, but i'm a huge fan of data, i'm a massive data fan and i try to make most of my decisions based on what research i have, because that Way i can support my thesis and then i don't have to waver on what it is that i'm doing, of course, if data changes then i would be stupid not to react right well in the three months after the gubernatorial campaign, where we were evaluating the viability Of creating a stock brokerage, we noticed a few things and the things that we noticed are lessons for what we can actually glean for things like the market going forward. So what we noticed in those three months is revenues at other stock brokerages which are public. You know we could see these, we can read, their earnings, calls we're stagnating and losses were mounting, employee costs soared and the ability of companies, like so far to find new customers became more difficult, and this is true of many brokerages, whether it's public or robinhood or Whatever so fast cost per acquisition, for example, the customer went up to 800 per customer, and then they even bought naming rights of a stadium, in los angeles, to increase their appeal to start trying to draw in more customers.

When we saw this, we realized comparing to experience. Let's take a look at the sign ups that we're getting for companies like weeble or public, which is data that we have, and we noticed in the last three months of 2021. This is before the sort of crash of 2022. Even the last six months of 2021, we were seeing a relative straight decline in the number of not only people clicking, sign up links, but also folks, actually proceeding through with the process of depositing money and actually signing up.

Even today, even though tastytrades is offering y'all 200 dollars, when you sign up at medkevin.com, tasty and deposit two thousand dollars, this affiliate partnership, which i think has incredible uh a potential and is a phenomenal company, tasty trees. Phenomenal company has seen a fraction of the type of sign ups that we would ordinarily see when there was a new kind of special from let's say, weeble towards the middle to end of last year. We're getting maybe five percent of the clicks that we used to on a new integration like this. So for me, the leading indicator that we saw the second half of last year was somewhat of a tell that.

Oh, the brokerage industry is going to start having some serious problems and i lost faith uh. You know at higher prices, thankfully, of in companies like robin hood because of the data that we were seeing, and so these were leading indicators of well that demise, and so we ended our brokerage plans. We also sold any positions that we had in brokerages because we're like we're seeing it we're literally seeing the data and since we sold robinhood, for example, has fallen. Another 40: that's down like 55 year-to-date sofa has fallen over 60 percent and there are leading indicators in statistics that we have in other areas as well.

One of the present leading indicators that i'm finding is people are becoming more choosy in what they spend money on, for example, life insurance sales with meet kevin or mattkevin.com life. Total clicks are down like 80, when i pitch it. So, for example, when i mention hey, get life insurance in as low as 5 minutes, you could sign up using apple pay or android pay. It's the life insurance loan that i use it's easy to sign up for whatever, whatever the same pitch with the same frequency.

Let's say if i pitched it three times a day over the course of three different videos compared to a three times mentioned uh, maybe a year ago the clicks are down 80 on that the conversions are still roughly the same, but the clicks are down. Now. I realize we're not in a pandemic anymore, so this might not be the best example, but in my opinion, it's a little bit of an indicator that hey first we're seeing people less interested in stocks obviously makes sense, but we started seeing them before the stock market. Actually fell for five months straight, we were seeing it a lot in november and december, which was really interesting because november was a rally month, but that rally month had nowhere near the sign.

Ups. We had during the meme stock era of january 2021, which again to some degree also makes sense because everybody was getting rich, quick, and so everybody wanted to sign up for that. But we did have some pretty remarkable rally times in november still fraction of the sign. Ups, though, so what about course, sales? Well core sales were strongest in january the month that i sold.

I think this is people wanting to make sure that, even if there's information, that's contrarian, they want to hear the information that i'm researching and i always try to give a digested version of what i'm researching, especially the course members. I go through probably 50 hedge fund letters every single day, institutional research. I mean there's there's a lot. I just can't make videos on all of it.

I try to consolidate as much as i can, but it's so much easier to just talk about it and, of course, member live streams, but anyway course sales were strongest in january when i sold, despite the incessant hate from some people, but anyway uh. You know i i sold, and i advised of dark days ahead and suggested that all of 2022 was probably going to be a quite hellish year. Core sales were unsurprisingly weakest in april, when the market gave up its two to three week, rally post or the march rally uh that came after the fomc meeting, and we kind of really realized that crap we are in a legit bear market. That's going to last for a while right, it's the fifth month of stock market declines.

Today we're in the six months of stock market declines. Uh crypto is plummeting right. It's painful. However.

Recently, we've been identifying some cracks in the real estate industry and there's been a new shift here. It's been a substantial interest in our real estate programs. Real estate sales have tripled when we consider bundled real estate for those of you looking at zero, the millionaire programs and sales of the do yourself. Property management and rental renovations group have quadrupled since you know when we consider bundles as well, and so while sales and the stocks and psychology money group are still strong, they're still down like 28 to 30 percent, again still strong.

But it makes a lot of sense to me. Smart people are saying crap, i don't know a lot about real estate, but we're less anxious about stocks right now, because we're kind of bouncing along what feels like a bottom okay great. But if there's a crash coming in real estate, that's even half as bad as 2008. I don't want to miss out on building wealth there, and i think a lot of people are saying like.

Where can i get an education in real estate? It's like? Well, you can't get an education in college in real estate, in my opinion, like you're, not going to get like how to find wedge deals in college, you generally have few choices, because a lot of programs that exist are like how to flip real estate. Let me just say it here for free, i mean, like i talk about this all the time, but in a bear market, as prices are going down, the last thing you want to do is flip real estate. This is why, by the way, redfin and companies like opendoor are just getting absolutely decimated in the stock market right now, because the worst time to acquire properties to flip them is in a bear market, especially for real estate. You want to try to buy closer to the bottom, rent them out, huddle them and then wait for a longer bull market in real estate to come back.

Let your renovations kind of wear a bit, because you can still get really good price for renovations. That are five years old, as opposed to brand new right. So i kind of like letting renovations wear a little bit, but anyway, that's some more deeper philosophy that we talk about, and you know, zero to mill and the do-it-yourself property management. But anyway.

So we, what we're seeing is we're seeing individuals make decisions that are more investments into their opportunities to take advantage of market opportunities. And this makes sense to us in terms of why we're seeing such a boost in real estate sales or property management sales and we're. Seeing a decline in signups for affiliate partnerships, for let's say new brokerages or even the frugality that we're seeing in terms of life insurance now what about some forward-looking information? Well, this is where i like to consider sponsors. You've, obviously seen integrations for me from companies.

I like, like public and wealthfront and ftx and upstart and more it. The thing is for me personally, like i won't take these partnerships from these crazy nfts that are offering lots of money to pitch their new project or whatever. I just immediately delete these, but also i got offered twenty thousand dollars to make one coinbase video right and like within a week of me talking on my channel about how their ceo is not communicating properly to to their users and they just slip in a line In their sec filings about how user deposits may not be protected during a bankruptcy of coinbase, it's this kind of cia, that's just like like what what's going on here like? Are you guys seeing writing on the wall? You know. The last thing i want to see is companies talking about bankruptcy more in addition to uh, oh by the way, you know, customers right anyway, you're not protected right, like that's, that's concerning and they said, may not, so i don't want to like slander them here or Whatever but the point is like that's just not a partnership that i was willing to take at the time, so i denied that sponsorship.

I lost some respect for coinbase, but, and i also see the dealing with a lot of regulatory issues like sec uncertainty, but i also read the sec rules and then saw how the ceo talked about them and i'm like. Well, that's not really what it says, but okay, whatever so i went off on that on twitter, but anyway uh now, while i don't have, i haven't yet at least had any sponsor deals evaporate. I'm hearing word through the grapevine that sponsorships are evaporating for other youtube channels. I've heard from multiple different advertising sources, whom i'm not going to mention, obviously for confidentiality's sake here, but the industry is slowing that vendors are canceling contracts or not.

Renewing that budgets are tightening up, so that's somewhat of a concerning trend, which is the opposite of what i thought at the beginning of the year, because i had a really good suspicion that consumer, discretionary and retail was going to get destroyed and it did. This is why i didn't buy it. Costco target etsy, none of it, amazon, don't want it like get it out of here, so i did not want any consumer discretionary that ended up being a really good bet, because consumer discretionary in retail, like the world retail index, is down like 29. Here today.

Technology is down 24, so i mean there's a small delta there, but it's still it's it's. A clear delta, like that was obvious. Where i was wrong was i thought companies would advertise more because of a buildup of inventory and rather than drop prices i figured they would try to compete more in the market by advertising more to get more customers. However, we weren't expecting the potential of a recession.

Uh, certainly we weren't really talking about this as substantially as we are now back in like december, when i was talking about advertising going up because in a recession, obviously one of the first things to get cut is advertising, so it makes sense as we started talking More about oh, a recession could happen. Advertising goes bye-bye: okay, not great, but now we're actually starting to see that, and i think it's a warning sign for everybody that if you have a job remember, you could lose your job. If you're a creator - and you rely on advertising contracts for income, you could lose your contracts, and so this is why it's so freaking important right now that make as much money as you can. While you still can get out of margin, get out of debt and be a survivor, you know you don't have to be a member of my courses, but i'm confident my course members are going to have higher odds of massive success and surviving.

You know when things change, we get out of positions that we don't like. We don't do memes, there's little speculation pumping up. None of that. That's not the purpose of what what we stand for as a group.

We stand for true debate and there are bulls and there are bears and the people who post really good analytical arguments and i love it and i like highlighting those in our course member live streams. So there's a strong dialogue between these bulls and bears shout out to some of the best for dialogue and helping and i'm not going to be able to get everybody here, but remember folks. Ultimately, there's a lot of pain, that's coming in 2022, and you just want to surround yourself with smart people that can help you get through it rex ice hobo time, dr meek mob spoke out. Nyc boogeyman brandon, four brandon.

This is tech. Crispy hope you come back. Greek and mba our special bear, and - and so many of you that i couldn't mention here - that i interact with you - i love you. I don't want to keep this list going on forever, but there's so many wonderful folks uh in the discord.

So, thank you shout out to you. I i need to thank you a lot more than i do so. I plan to make another uh shout out list like this for uh, for those of you that i didn't mention in this one so stay tuned. Thank you.

So much and folks we'll see the next one bye.