An end to the war in Ukraine could mean a collapse of oil prices and massive leftover inflationary pressure. Without war in Ukraine, we might almost certainly be in an era of deflation. Imagine what that could mean for your portfolio. But first we have to consider is what's happening now in Ukraine an escalation or actually a sign that the end is near.

Let's talk. Well, you know it's weird. He's saying that Europe's in recession no France and Germany just came out and said the ah, not the intercession kind of crazy. They are doing good.

Everything is great, things are so great we will send Panza those Ukraine Okay, oh, I'm allowed to do that because I'm well. I was born in Germany also old German citizenship. Uh, uh, I'm a dual citizen. but what we should talk about is the fear that is being placed over the idea of sending Ukraine tanks.

and what the implications of this are. Some folks are making the argument that the United States sending Abrams Tanks 32 of them uh, and a Germany authorizing other countries like Poland to send tanks and potentially F-16s From the Netherlands to Ukraine, there are two arguments happening. Argument Number One: Ukraine is losing so badly that they need a bailout and Europe is worried about their own safety. Argument number two, which is the argument that I personally believe uh, it has a higher likelihood of being correct, but it could be wrong.

Argument number two is that Ukraine is doing so well in fighting against Russia and the Russian military is becoming so disorganized and fractured that these tanks will provide a mop-up force for Ukraine. Now, Russia does have a lot of anti-tank weapons, so they will have to utilize these weapons very carefully. However, the concern is either direction whether Ukraine is losing or winning. The concern is that providing these sorts of weapons like F-16 fighter jets which are Gen 4 fighter jets, they're nowhere near as awesome as the new fighter jets that are Gen Fives even Gen Sixes soon that we have in America Uh, but they're still pretty badass.

Uh, these, uh, these these? uh uh. There's an argument that essentially uh, Russia will start World War Three with nuclear weapons because they'll get backed into a corner. But I think that concern originally held tanks away and a World War III scenario was exactly why Germany and the United States have actually not been authorizing battle tanks. The fact that now, rather than just authorizing armored personnel carriers, they are authorizing tanks battle tanks uh is is actually, in my opinion, a sign that they are less worried about.

World War III. Of course some argue that no BlackRock just wants to be able to rebuild Ukraine and make money there so that the United States government has to be part of the rebuilding process and therefore they have to make sure Ukraine maintains a terror, it's territory. and then you know we get into sort of tinfoil hat of uh, well, the whole Military Industrial Contest complex is making a whole lot of money off this. which is true.

Uh and uh and and uh. Their lobbyists are basically forcing the US and European governments to uh, support the sending of more weapons so they can make more weapons. The Leopard 2 battle tank, for example, is a little bit. Uh requires a little bit shorter training than the Abrams.

It's about three to six weeks of training per crew to operate a Leopard battle tank. Cruise About four people, 120 millimeter cannon, full digital Fire Control System no manual It's All Digital It's got two other guns, a 762 machine guns actually both of them uh, it's got a driver's hatch uh and uh uh just to the left of the Uh. The cannon basically holds 4 750 rounds unspecified thickness to uh protect it against Uh IEDs and explosives. It is a diesel powered battle tank that first went into service in 1979.

here's a picture of your Leopard two Panza from the Germans the Germans with send you Panza tanks uh, that's redundant. uh, but anyway, that's your leopard. Then you have the A12 Abrams battle tank on screen. Now that that was my attempt at like uh, who's seen those little robotic Wars uh on TVs where they fight the little robots and the ones with the plexiglass and big wheels always flip around I don't know anyway, and the big metal ones with the Hammers always seem to do well until they get flipped around.

Anyway, the Abrams battle tank has a 120 millimeter cannon as well. also digital. Fire Control Also four-person crew, but it takes longer to train with. Now, what's remarkable about these is they're substantially stronger than just armored personnel carriers, right? I Mean these are capable of taking down other enemy tanks.

This thing's got three additional Uh Uh cannons on it. Well, well, uh. turrets on it. Uh, 12.7 millimeter heavy machine gun, 900 rounds, two 762 machine guns, ten thousand four hundred rounds also unspecified thickness.

This one's actually powered by jet fuel, which is really just a refined diesel. This is very different from your more armored personnel carriers which generally come with turrets and uh are great for reconnaissance or Urban combat, but but less great for uh, anti-tank or anti-armor uh fighting. and so uh, at the same time as uh, you have, uh, this going on. You have uh, Turkey essentially indefinitely trying to block Sweden and Finland from joining NATO A lot of folks are calling this essentially political theater for the upcoming elections.

Very close elections. You've got uh, you know this hope of trying to rally nationalistic and religious groups Turkey is a member of. NATO Uh, they? they, they're trying to be a member of the EU but they're not. Uh, they.

they are demanding. uh, they're making certain demands like the extradition of of certain um Turkish journalists. uh. Swedish Courts have blocked that extradition.

Uh, pulled by the Swedes most don't want? uh, most Swedes don't want. uh, well, it says eight out of ten Swedes. Uh, don't want uh, a Sweden to compromise with Turkey. Turkey is now actually even going as far as threatening a war with Greece suggesting that Turkish troops could descend on Grace suddenly one night threatening Athens with ballistic missiles.

This is kind of like a China Taiwan saber rattling. The countries are obviously quite close together. if you look at the map, here's one on screen now. Uh, you've got Greece essentially wrapping around like a crescent moon around Turkey here.

uh, Turkey obviously holding the very important Istanbul straight old school Constantinople connecting both the European continent and Asian continent as uh, where both of them meet. But uh, yeah, you've got uh, you know the grease uh or the prime minister of Greece saying, look, we're not going to go to war with Turkey. This is all just saber-rattling and nonsense and this will end up getting resolved just like the conflicts we've seen with Italy and Egypt Uh, that a lot of this is just nonsense right now. but you do have a lot of geopolitical, uh, posturing should I say going on right now.

A lot of fears that these battle tanks and potentially fighter jets are going to aggravate uh, war in Ukraine and potentially induce some kind of World War III scenario where Turkey attacks Greece China attacks Taiwan Russia uses nukes and everything goes to hell I Really don't think that is likely and personally I believe that a lot of it is is fear-mongering but it does make for uh, you know, news that needs to be covered. It is something that should be paid attention to so we can watch for potential inflection points either direction. But personally, I'm not highly concerned. and I actually believe that finally, these delivery of tanks and maybe even F-16 fighter jets is actually a signal that the war is closer to over than potentially getting worse.

So those are just my thoughts on Ukraine and Russia Remember to take advantage of that 30. it's actually uh, the coupon code expiring on the 30th. Best pricing guarantee Heed going forward: Minimum three months course member live streams. You get lifetime access, so even in two years you're like I wonder what Kevin thinks in his course member livestream this morning? you could join.

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