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(Filmed 6/14/23)
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0:00 Fed Announcement
1:46 Using EMAs
5:38 Chasing Gainers
8:27 Letting Winners Run
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Yeah I think I'll own the FED announcement. That's the last thing I want to talk about is the first move is always the wrong move. So I did a video a YouTube video on this. It's probably uh, it's probably a month or so it goes.

but I'm telling you man, it's it's crazy how when these these macro events happen, the first move is always the long move and if you look at the S P 500 or the NASDAQ or basically any real stock at 2 pm you will see a a collapse and then about an hour later everything went right back to where it was and basically closed at the high of the day. The first move is always the wrong move now. I say that. Listen I know most of you probably aren't trading the Spy the Es Etc but man if you're if you are, if you trade S p Futures Man you live for days like today because the first move is always the wrong move.

just incredible Dip buys or even if you're trading real stocks Nvidia Apple I mean all the real stocks. If you're ready and you're prepared and you have good risk management, you can just clean up on fed days man because because especially days like this, when the gap down now the Gap up harder to capitalize on shorting real stocks always dangerous. I mean it's like think about the difference like Nvidia Nvidia is probably the strongest stock in the entire stock market right now. Like listen when I talk about the first move raw move a big gap up on Nvidia shorting that very dangerous man.

Very dangerous. but you get a big gap down on Nvidia post Fed announcement. Clean up man. Suck it up.

So um, all right I Think that's most of my agenda as always. Drop those tickers and questions in chat and I've got a question about moving averages. Um, so the question is, how do you use the moving average exponential and volume averages? They're pre-programmed at 5, 9, 15, and 20 periods. How to combine those for day trading? Um, maybe an unpopular answer.

but my thing is if you don't know how to use moving averages which is fine, It it tells me that you're a new Trader Okay, um, if you don't understand moving averages if or EMAs smas then it means it tells me that you're a nutrient. That's why we're here to help new Traders Okay, so the point is that as a new Trader don't get caught up in too many technical indicators and it just you know like like listen, go to Investopedia go to YouTube I Mean there's some great resources, learn what moving averages are, but you're in my opinion if you're asking that question and again, it's not a bad question. But if you're asking that question, you're not ready yet because what you should be focusing on doing price and volume and then you add in some dwap. Okay, because here's the deal and this is what so many Traders fall into a trap if you can't consistently make money using price, volume, and view app, adding more technical indicators is not the solution.

Okay, you need to understand that. Start out now. Listen, there's a time and a place. I Know a lot of traders that use a lot of moving averages, but they're more advanced and they've got more esoteric trading.
Styles But if you can't make money, recognizing price and volume, adding more technical indicators is not the solution. Okay, and I always think of this graphic. is that going to show up Yeah, if I hold steady enough, There it is. There he goes.

Okay, so this is my favorite. So it says: if you notice, look at all of his technical indicators. all of his lines look at that chart and he says oh yeah, I found the bottom can you see it? And all joking aside, like I have seen newer Traders with charts that look like that like maybe not that bad, that's an exaggeration. Okay I've never seen anyone with a chart like that.

but I've seen new Traders with just all kinds of stuff just all over the place and I'm just like man, it's not. more isn't the solution? Okay, more indicators, more lines, all of it. So what typically happens and this is what happened when people add all these indicators, it becomes confirmation bias because and like, you'll hear me say this: I I I've made this point a lot. Like um, if you add enough indicators, anything, you can make anything look bullish okay, or or bearish.

if you're short. okay, let's assume you're you're long. Bias: Like you can just keep adding indicators until any chart. Any stock looks bullish, vice versa.

On the short side, if you just keep adding stuff, adding stuff, adding stuff, you will convince yourself oh, okay, this stock is going to collapse. so maybe not the answer you want. Um Andre uh Andre Asked the question, but it's real. Okay, you'll always get real from me.

You need to focus on being consistently profitable with simple. Keep it simple, then get more advanced. So um, so hit me with questions guys. Um, I am a little tight on time, but um so.

but hit me with questions if you got them. Uh, how do you get over the fact that a stock has already moved 100? I Don't trust that they can still move higher. Brian Look at Wetg. Listen, if you're talking about stocks that don't have all the criteria.

okay, like a good example: if you're looking at some huge Gainer that's not low float, forget it. Get it off the list. Okay, if you're if you're looking at some huge Gainer that doesn't have ridiculous volume, forget it. If you're looking at something that doesn't have a catalyst, doesn't have a hot sector, Forget it.

Forget it. Forget it. So the point is, that is why I Constantly talk about that box Checker idea and that's why I Started with Wetg today. Okay, Wecg was up huge in pre-market but a bunch of people nailed it at 11 before it went to 20 plus.

and the reason I started with Wetg is I Wanted to explain to you guys that the reason Wetg did what it did was because every single box was checked now. I Always have to give the caveat: Listen, it's not guaranteed. Okay, Wetg could have collapsed, but if you're looking at trading big gainers, you have to always be focusing on the stocks that stack as many odds as in your favor. Okay, and if it's lacking any of those like and I know I'm kind of getting repetitive, but it was all there on Wedg.
G Again, go back and look at the chart. It got destroyed. Absolute Beatdown chart first Green Day Artificial Intelligence press release right at 8 30. they timed the press release perfectly.

Um, chat Palm just I mean I already went over it on everything was there on Wetg and I would say listen I would say that exact same thing if Wetg failed. Okay, like it. like if it broke that secondary move. uh that when I was trying to send out the alert if it would have failed, I would have said the exact same thing I wouldn't I wouldn't have like changed the notes when I write something now and it stays set in stone.

The plan doesn't change I would have you know I would have if Wtg would have failed this morning in pre-market I would have started this webinar exactly the same I would have just said man, it was all there on wetg man it was all there. But yeah, sometimes they don't work so that's the answer. Okay, focus on making sure that if you're trading, dipping rips the big morning movers that you're not excluding all of the valuable criteria. And if you're starting to exclude one or two, that's a red, that's a red flag and you need to back off and look at something else or come back the next day.

So any tips on helping with patients letting winners run? Um, listen. the biggest thing I think will always help and and like sometimes I think I should get this tattooed on my forehead. You know the have a plan like what? what creates so much uncertainty is yo. So so the way I teach and the way I trade in the way I teach is I call it it is very uh, conditional operator based.

okay I'm a dork I think all of you guys know I'm a dork I'm not a coder but I'm a dork. Okay, so the way I approach trade plans are it's like if then else statement. Okay, a conditional statement. If you're a nerd, you know what I mean.

But the reason I teach this is you should always know what you're going to do before you enter the trade. Okay, so and and there's always there's an if then else component to that if this happens. I Do this If this happens I Do this. So the reason I Teach and I pound it in everybody's head to always have a stop loss before you enter Because Listen, it's very easy to break a stop if you didn't even like like a lot of people would be like oh, I'll I'll stop out if it goes down I'm like, what's that mean you know I'll cut losses quickly.

Okay, well okay. just cut losses quickly mean one cent down one percent 20 You know doesn't mean five minutes. Does it mean an hour? You know what does that mean? Okay, the reason you will see every single trade plan I Write it has an entry. It has an exit for a stop loss and it has a goal.
So you now and and all of that is determined before you enter the trade. So now you have a stop loss. Now you're talking about letting winners run. So you've get.

You've got to think about this before you enter the trade. I Know nobody wants to do this. Nobody wants to think about anything before they enter a trade. which is why ninety Percent fail.

You know it's like I mean like like if you're doing this I've done it in the past. Okay, if you're entering the stock and then You start thinking about oh, what am I gonna do you already failed Okay, you failed, You failed, you failed, you failed. Okay if if you if you're like oh, this guy just said oh and and now you've got thousand shares of some crappy low float stock and now you're like well what if it goes down uh uh what if it goes sideways uh uh what if what if it's you know and and that by by not preparing is what creates all of this uncertainty because you don't know, you didn't think it through, you just jumped in and you're like hey, what happens now So I think that's why so many people you know make bad decisions because they don't think about what's before entering the trade. So let's say you wrote a plan.

There should be contingencies based on okay what happens if like let's say you buy a stock at a dollar, your stop loss is 90 and your goal is a buck 30. and the stock goes up to like a buck 10 and then just starts going sideways. You should have contingencies for that. like like how long am I going to let this stock work okay Am I going to wait an hour Am I going to wait two hours am I gonna wait till tomorrow.

All of these things should be thought out so that now if it's 3 30, it's 3 30 P or it's 3 45 p.m or it's 3 55 p.m and this stock is still sideways. Now you're not. You're not doing the same thing. You're not like, oh okay, chain.

You know you already should know if this thing just goes sideways. it's a crappy low float stock. I'm just gonna take small profits because I don't want to hold this overnight. So the point is, all of these things should be determined and you should understand.

You know before you enter the trade. and if you're in, if you're in the green. Okay now. I The example I gave was for a crappy low floater.

Let's say you're trading a better higher quality stock. Sofi Is this week's swing trade? Okay, last night we went over the swing trade on sofa. So if you're in sulfi and you're slightly green, it's a higher quality stock. You knew it was a swing trade going in.

You would hold that one because you're green. You're green. Remember winners hold winners, losers hold losers. It's above your stop.

but it's not at your goal. It's not a crappy low float biotech or something. So all of these things should be determined before you enter the trade. And listen, if you're not doing that, then figure it out.
I mean I wish I wish I could give you like some Secret Sauce to do it. but you should always have contingencies for what you're gonna do. So even if I have a goal I sell early and take profits. Well, Why? why? Stephanie Why Like you know and and this is where journaling comes in too.

like I Don't know why you would you know Now listen, if there's like some huge red candle and you're like whoa, what just happened that's a different scenario, but if the stock is just trending in your favor, then why why sell for small profits? You know. Remember, the golden rule is let your winners run and cut your losses. So now again, it's hard to know all the variables. But barring some huge red candle, let it work.

Let it work. So Stephen says I don't want to lose. Well, there we go. We're gonna finish on this.

Stephanie And all of you I Appreciate the honesty. Stephanie You have to fix this. All of you. okay.

if you do not fix this, you will constantly struggle. You have to be okay with losing. There has never been a 100 win rate. There never will be a 100.

Renee You have to get to the point where you are now I don't when I say this I Don't expect you to be happy. Okay I Don't want you to I Don't expect you to celebrate when you lose, but you have to be okay with it. It's no different than striking out in baseball or missing a shot. Okay, if you miss a shot in basketball and then you're like I'm done I quit and you walk off the court I Mean you have to know that losing is part of the game.

So you have two options and this goes for all of you. This is where this is the tough love part of this video. You simply have two options. You have to either fix the fact that losing is part of trading or you need to quit.

It's the only two options because you will. There will never be a 100 win right? never has and never will be. So you either fix it or you quit. Only two options.

All right guys. good stuff Tonight have a great day and we will see you next time.

By Stock Chat

where the coffee is hot and so is the chat

7 thoughts on “Off the charts: how to let your winners run”
  1. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars David Garrett says:

    Still learning patterns. One strategy I have been doing is if it goes up 20% sell a quarter of my position then if it goes to 30% sell another quarter and so on. I’m sure as I get me comfortable I will adjust.

  2. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Danny Hardwick says:

    Awesome video thanks Tim for sharing and teaching, so much to learn

  3. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Roger Drolet says:

    Excellent points. As you know I do predefine all my trades. However, I normally won't let a stock stop out. Instead, I sell prior to stop loss to "cut my loss". Many times I would have eventually hit my target before the ticker hits my stop loss.

  4. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Willy Friar says:

    Still waiting for the promised specific stock tips!

  5. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Jason Christopher says:

    Stick with Price Volume & VWAP as your primary indicators. VWAP is the most useful in trading patterns & decisions made by most traders

  6. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars B DuPont says:

    Great stuff Tim! Keep it coming….

  7. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars meName says:

    This is SO true. Fading the 2 pm move after is settles to a small consolidation area has been money for me… like clockwork.

    I don’t really understand why the initial reaction ends up being a fakeout besides manipulation to bag retail… but whatever.

    Any ideas on your end what the mentality is?

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