Fomc live stream: Starts Now In the next two minutes, Uh, the Federal Reserve is going to be announcing the next interest rate hike and I hope that you guys are all ready. There it goes. We got our backlight ready we got NASDAQ beginning to show signs of a support. What's up with sub Good afternoon.

How are you guys all doing today? I Want to blame Raising Canes for making me a little bit late I Was supposed to go live five to ten minutes before Market or before the Fomc meeting I've never had them take this long I Do apologize, but guess what? we still got them 10ds one second. Oh, all righty and in the next 47 seconds, the Federal Reserve will be announcing the interest rate hike. There is a 95 probability what was it? 94.6 probability that the Federal Reserve is going to raise interest rates by 0.25 and a 5.4 probability that the Federal Reserve is going to raise interest rates by half a basis point so we shall see which way the market ends up actually trading. Hope that you guys are ready again.

Please make sure that you guys drop a thumbs up if you guys haven't done so already. Alrighty here we go. We got nine seconds left. Do something now about your position or forever hold your peace.

If you do not want to experience how the market reacts to this Fomc rate hike, There it goes. Let's see here it goes. Dropping Looks like wait wait wait wait wait wait wait Are we going to pick up? Are we going to pick up? Am I going to want to add to Sqq way directions beginning to change. Look at that market is picking up NASDAQ showing signs of an uptrend.

Wait, it's still trying to decide. Let's see which way we go. Alrighty here it goes and the decision should be in. there.

it goes. NASDAQ indicating signs of an uptrend looks like s QQQ just picking up. All right. Nope.

still looking like it's still trying to decide. What do you guys think Esky EQ pulling back a little bit NASDAQ trying to indicate signs of an uptrend Looks like we're testing this slight. Little Resistance Let's see if the Bulls come to flush out the Bears anyone playing meta earnings. We will be live streaming meta earnings later today.

So again, just another reason to subscribe to the channel. and Jerome Powell speaks in 29 minutes and again it's normally this is just from my experience and it's just my opinion. but one of the things that I want to remind you is that this is the report and then Jerome Powell speaks 30 minutes after. So about 2 30 p.m Eastern Time Jerome Powell is going to be speaking and answering questions.

He has a little script that he reads off of for the first two to three minutes and then after that he for about 30 to 45 minutes. he begins to answer questions from different news outlets right? right? and during those questions, depending on how he answers, he's very clever, right? so he's not gonna. He normally does not, uh, say things that completely skew the market. but who knows, right? Something that he says just like during earnings report and earnings calls, something that he says can completely shift the market.

Normally what I tend to see is the market reacts one way when the report work comes out and then it reacts another way once the actual you know live stream happens when he begins to answer questions. Alrighty, here it goes. It looks like we're still testing I Kind of like this setup. please do not copy.

Just because I choose to take a trade does not mean that you need to. I'm going to stay pretty light right now I'm going to go in with a thousand shares. We're not seeing much progress right now on the NASDAQ market and if we're lacking progress, It's probably for a specific reason. Come on buddy! Update: Homeboy Oh my goodness.

Okay, yeah, it's 25 basis points I Could see that in the chat, but it just pisses me. It pisses me off. Can you see that it took a little bit too much pre-workout when I went to the gym. As you guys could tell, I'm running on a few hours of sleep at my flight training this morning so I'm on edge right? I Was very calm this morning but I feel like I was like coming off of the high of you know, flying and pun intended right? I guess hahaha.

All right NASDAQ Beginning to retrace I'm liking this right? I'm just gonna be careful here. Be cautious. there's no reason that I need to be super super aggressive with my position or my trade. It's one thing that I want to remind myself: how are you guys feeling you guys feeling good So my profits today was three.

What? I can't see it because it's it's 37k and I'm not Wow Jesus need some money for the rest of us all right? I'm gonna do 1K here just adding to it we're testing EMA could easily get rejected here. so just a quick little heads up. A lot of consolidation. Majority of the resistance that we've seen during normal Market hours has been 17.98 Although 18 is the glorified dollar value I mean what I like to focus on is what price point does it touch the most? and in my opinion, it's been around 1796 or 1797.

you guys let me know what you think, but that's been the more common resistance range and there it goes: NASDAQ beginning to pick back up bouncing off of that EMA which is in favor of the bulls, not in favor of the Bears Please tell me any of the best shares for the next six months. It sounds like you want people to tell you where it is that you should put your money And let me let me just make it easy for you you should just not trade or invest in the stock market. Just save yourself time. Um, just don't even trade.

If you're not even going to be able to work for it, then that is a huge red flag right when I see comments like that. It's just it reminds me how lazy people are and if that offends you, then I Really hope it does. So it puts you in your place. It's just.

it's really unfortunate that you think that you can just come on here and again. This is the big big mistake is why do Why does anything with a very low barrier of Entry have such a high failure rate? And it's because people like that because people are so unwilling to work towards it. They want everything I get messages all the time Ricky I Want to be a millionaire? Ricky I Want to be able to live off of trading at Ricky I Want to make 5 10K a month off of trading Ricky I Want a super car too? I Have huge aspirations? You think that's special? You think it's special to want to be rich? You think it's special to want to do well for your family. No basic.

Every everyone wants to do well, right? So again, it comes down to how bad you want it if you really want it. Then again, you can talk all you want. Talking means nothing. right? Put in the work.

Understand if you cannot decide yourself, what makes a good investment, What makes a good stock to trade based off of your criteria. If you cannot form that opinion yourself, then you are not ready, right? It's kind of like myself. I'm learning how to fly I've never landed a plane yet. my my skill level is not there.

My experience level is not there. I'm not going to just take the risk and just wing it and try to land a plane right. It comes in stages I Need to understand this right. I'm learning how to do something.

You're learning how to do something. Everything comes with time. It comes down to how bad you want it, consistency over a long period of time and overcoming challenges. That is the way to do anything in life.

not being lazy and asking what should I do I Don't know if copping got you very far in school, but it's not going to get you very far in life and we all know that. Thank you! All right here it goes. Still testing testing support here. Gonna have to be cautious.

we're testing that same resistance range on QQQ You see that I have 23 minutes before our savior G p JP My goodness JP And this can some people get? Hello Hello Beautiful! We love telemarketers right? Literally everything priced in already. It looks like it right? It looks like everything is priced in it looks like NASDAQ already was pricing in that fed a quarter of a basis point interest rate hike. But again, when Jerome Powell speaks this, this isn't even like anything crazy, right? Um, we've seen it many times when an interest rate hike is announced, but it was more when we were questioning what was going to happen. Do you guys remember that when we were like, is it going to be a quarter of a basis point? Is it going to be half a basis point? Is it going to be three quarters of a basis points right? Um, now it's kind of like you know we kind of know what the Federal Reserve is going to do because we have that kind of track record.

So I feel like the influence that it has when it announces that report is less of a surprise. Uh, But when he speaks and how he answers questions are super super important. So I'm going to be very careful here. Again, my job is not to be perfect.

My job is not to want to avoid risk, it's just to manage it right. If we make new lows here, I'm just gonna keep it simple and close it. It's that simple, right? There's a break if pattern y over complicated. There's no reason to be super emotional, super irrational.

Keep it simple and when in doubt, cash out Am. I Whispering Some people were saying that I was being too loud, so that's why I'm just watching my tone. Alrighty Testing Support Testing for a potential breakout here on QQQ Watch out. This is in favor of the Bulls I'm telling you this as someone that is a bear right now, right? there's no reason for me to oversell something, even to myself.

and obviously you know direction is very clear instead of over complicating it. But again, it's just holding myself accountable and managing and mitigating this risk. Here it goes: Testing: 1785 Watch for the break below. Watch for the break below.

I'm gonna get my order ready, order is ready, and we're gonna sell. Let me see that. 1784. 1784 1785 Let's see it.

Let's see it. Boom. Are we gonna come on? Come on there it goes. 1782 1783 Yep.

Yep. Yep. you bounce, giving it some cushion. 1780 here.

Let me do this. Thousand shares that put a stop 79. Keep it nice and pretty. Right right below that support.

Common support Range Common Support range. You guys see this. Common Support Common support. We went back to retest.

Common support patterns tend to repeat themselves. They don't always have to testing oversold levels right now. Let's go ahead and double check. QQQ Looking good? Am I sounded like an Auctioneer I Guess I was right because I was there.

It goes. testing, testing, testing previous lows. Let's see if we hit it yet. Nope.

1779 There it goes. Watch for the break above. Made an amazing trade this morning and we're going to top it off with a stop loss right? The Beautiful: There it goes. Stop loss triggered on Sqq.

My job is not to be perfect, you know I saw potential there obviously didn't go according to plan so I managed to mitigate my risk right? rare Woody L uh I love that what's your name? Let's see if I remember it Alex uh Yin I'm gonna remember you I'm gonna remember you buddy I'm gonna remember you now to attendees. Honestly: I'm starving I haven't had anything to eat today. My little skinny ass needs to eat something. So actually I did have food at McDonald's I totally forgot about that I Had a really early morning so oh, let's go down to: Carlos Is that my guy? How you doing again? Uh, testing overbought level right now RSI Macd: Everything's overbought, but again, indicators are to be used as a reference.

never as a sole reason to take a trade there for. Yes, it is overbought, but it's still incredibly bullish. meaning that it doesn't matter how overbought this RSI tells me it is or how overbought this Macd tells me it is. It can still continue to form higher highs and higher lows.

That is what I'm looking for. Lack of progress. We talk about this all the time within our Lpp live sessions. Are we lacking progress? Are we showing signs of a resistance right now? No sign of a resistance.

It's continuously forming higher highs and higher lows. and that's why I manage my risk Because progress is being made against me. and when that's the case, my job is to accept when direction is not in my favor instead of trying to fight it. I was fighting it.

What was it yesterday, right? I Didn't fight it this morning. Right on this trade that I took the original trade, It looks like we're going back down to previous support levels I Didn't fight it during that trade, but as of right now, looks like Direction is against me right now. So therefore, right when in doubt, pull out cashed out. Yes! I Took a little bit of a loss on that trade, but guess what? It's 11 14.

We still got an hour and 45 minutes left. Uh, it's about 16 minutes after. Uh, in 16 minutes? Jerome Powell Is going to be speaking that to me is more important? Um, my trading doesn't have to be perfect I Know I'm still in the green based off of the ridiculous and amazing trade I took this morning I built myself a nice little cushion and I'm just waiting for the next setup that meets my criteria, right? There's no reason to over complicate it or to get super emotional by holy crap man. I took a bad trade.

Uh, it's like dude, I'm human, right? We're all human. You're gonna make bad mistakes. I'm gonna make bad mistakes. Accept it.

Manage them. Our job is not to avoid risk. Our job is to manage it. Remember that that's in all areas of life, relationships, business, trading, whatever the case might be, your job is not to avoid it.

Your job is to manage it. How much exposure you leave yourself or you open yourself to set up? I Break above 1788 What effect does this have on gold? Look at it. Look at Golden Look at NASDAQ Look at the correlation right. You should be able to do a split screen if you have.

Weeble You can do a grid and have two different screens. Therefore, you should be able to see them side by side. Look at gold on the day chart. Look at NASDAQ on the day chart.

Try to find the correlation. That's what I do right. See if you find a correlation on green day is what is cool. Do on red days.

what does gold do? Is there an exact correlation or is it only during Sometimes if Federal Reserve comes in higher than expected whether it's gold dated, if Jerome Powell says something negative and Market rack specific way was gold do right you can. It's all about learning how to do this on your own as well, right? And these price moves are crazy. It's not too crazy. I know you've been here before.

Uh, Umesh right? Um, we've seen some. I Mean, let's be honest, like we've we've seen some pretty crazy Fomc meetings right? like some wild ones. like seven percent days for Tqs or for Sqs right? Like Third, what was it like a 17 day I think it was for Tqs or something like that. Yeah, so this is.

this is pretty common I Think it. You know. This is why I'm a little bit more conditioned is because we've taken beatings from NASDAQ markets so many times before that when little things like this happen right? we go from highs of 18 to lows of 1780. It's like dude, I can tolerate that I've been beat up harder.

You know the good old days. That's why you know it's all about conditioning what you condition yourself to. That's why we say on our green days we prepare for our red days and on our red Edge we prepare for our green days. You can take it as a slap across the fish as a lesson learned.

I guess I am kind of whispering right? I do apologize I Really don't mean to be like whispering in your ear or whatever the case might be I just is it too loud? Is the audio too loud? How am I How am I doing live chat? Am I doing okay 13 minutes left. Yep, 13 minutes left until Jerome Powell Big JP begins to speak. Let's see if he if he begins to wear his roly-poly he's going to wear his Submariner right? Justin that's what he wears Submariner And here, audio is good. Rookie: ASMR Lucky you appreciate that Dino Black sub baby.

All righty. do you guys mind if I eat some chicken tendies? We're just we're just waiting for Jerome pal to speak right? It shouldn't be too crazy. Uh, one thing that I do want to remind you is while we wait. Remember now is the time to prepare.

So if the market begins to show signs of lack of progress, if maybe you feel uncomfortable with a trade that you're in, if you're too heavy right now or too light right now, whatever the case might be, remember you prepare in advance. So if you think that the Market's going to aggressively push up or aggressively sell off or you're just wanting to stay cash to prepare, create your game plan. Now. Not.

Oh shoot. Market's going against me. What should I do? No now. Okay, my market sells off on me.

Where am I going to manage risk? If Market goes with me, where am I going to average up or lock in profits? The the time is now, so use this downtime to your advantage. It's the people that don't prepare that end up getting surprised, right? The only people that freak out when the market pulls on back are only those that don't prepare. I'm sorry for all these riddles and all of these analogies, but I need it to make sense I need it to stick with you I do want to remind you again these live sessions. A handful of you guys message me via Discord or via Instagram If you didn't see today's live session, it was such I mean Lpp team let me know in the live chat was today's live session.

not literally like one of the most most ideal reversal setups, right? I mean I personally love trading reversals I don't know if you do I don't know if you struggle, but I mean it pulled on back Consolidated At the moving average, three stages of a reversal, we waited for confirmation, averaged up into it and then locked in profits at previous highs of 18 just like previous resistance levels. If you look at the five minute, you can see that previous highs have been 18. So surprise surprise, we're locked in profits I didn't sell at the highest price point I didn't buy at the lowest price point. It was just a decent setup and this was all caught live.

So if you want to see today's live session, shoot me a direct message I Don't know why so many of you guys over complicated you're like I don't know if you know, just shoot me a direct message. It's the first or third link in the description down below. depending if you want to message me via Discord or via Instagram if you message me via Discord I should be responding to all of your messages and that is the first link in the description down below. But again, I do trade live with one team and one team only.

It is my Learn Plan profit group and it's the second link in the description down below. So if you did get to see what the Lpp gets to experience every single day when I trade again I'd love to have you as a part of the team. We're running our biggest sell right now. It's 170 five dollars off and if you have any questions before signing up, shoot me a direct message.

But if you're ready right now second link in the description down below, it's 175 off and again, like I said one-time payment lifetime access. It doesn't get much more simple than that, right? All righty yeah, I'm gonna eat those dandies. Let me see them. Okay, did you guys see that AMC sold off today I mean while I have you guys here for a good laugh AMC For those that said, oh no AMC's I know it's none of you guys right? But AMC pulling on back from highs of 8.76 I Love I mean I don't like picking on people.

The only people that I like like picking on is the bag holders that continue to hold the bag on AMC right? Um, it's just it's so funny. Um, but I know I need to stop making those videos. but I just have too much fun. They hate it when I shorted AMC I mean I don't like shorting it either.

Only when I make money, you know? Oh man, that's Petty Ricky come out to Oregon I will buy you Taco Bell All right I'll spend whatever it costs to fly out there just so I can get some Taco Bell foreign I'll put the microphone a little bit further back I wish I had some like no copyright music I can play for all of you guys. Uh, but again, as of right now, I'm waiting for the reversal to form on Skq and we have eight minutes left until Jerome Powell begins to speak. So again, if it's not too much to ask, make sure you drop a thumbs up. Make sure that you're subscribed to the channel and we're going to wait eight minutes and watch how the market reacts when Jerome Powell begins to speak Jerome Palace the head of the Federal Reserve who is again in charge of monetary policy for those that are unaware.

if this is the first time that you've ever watched Jerome Powell speaker and fom singing. First off, I'm so happy that you're here that you chose me to watch out of all people as you have many different options out there. and I really hope that I can answer any questions you might have either during this live or shoot me a direct message. like I said.

everything's linked down below. Can you see my Raven Clint Foreign? Here it goes. Let's go Jesus Foreign. This music better Not be copyrighted.

Watch me get copyrighted because of this Freaking Federal Reserve Music? No way right? We have about 3 000 of you guys here and we only have 400 likes. We are going to be live streaming The Meta Earnings which is after market hours. If it's not too much to ask, if you guys can please get this video to over 1 000 likes. We'd greatly appreciate it.

and of course make sure that you subscribe to the channel and turn on your post notifications. if not, YouTube literally would not Was not going to notify you when I Go Live. So just a heads up on that foreign. There we go.

NASDAQ Dropping you? See that back there NASDAQ Dropping us Pikachu Same resistance range. Just a heads up. we have five minutes left until Jerome Powell speaks. Look at this testing Moving average.

Thank you. When in doubt, cash out baby. Oh boy. Beautiful sell-off Oh my goodness.

Oh my goodness. I'm making too much money. It's not fair. There it goes.

Sold at 17.99 There we go. It's nice little bounce. This is why again testing previous resistance range right? If you're part of Lpp, you know exactly what we're talking about. We talked about it: 18 a share.

that's been a common resistance range for the past week for Sqq Sqq. Let me be very Frank Trust me. I Want the market to pull on back I hope it does. But guess what? My hopes, my desires mean absolutely nothing to the stock market, right? So I need to respect it and guess what? NASDAQ Market has been more bullish than it has been bearish.

therefore I need to respect that So Sqq is a bare ETF So anytime that it's testing or resistance I would say that I have less ground to stand on as a bear than I do than a bull. Makes sense. It's like understanding when you can be aggressive and kind of like no like Market direction is in my favor versus hey you know I should probably respect the market. Maybe it's not the worst idea to lock in profits right now.

Do you get what I mean I See you as a sandals guy I Never wear sandals. You will never catch me wearing sandals literally even at the beach. I'll walk Barefoot before I wear sandals. All right.

We still got the sell signal here on QQQ but again, that indicators mean absolutely nothing when um, fundamentals come into the place right? Gerald Pal can say something that was not factored in completely shift the market. It doesn't matter what your indicator said. oh, we're above VMA we're above moving average under. Understand that indicators can only take you so far right and then you have to respect overall what's being announced and sometimes obviously if it's news something that you know like when Russia attacked Ukraine not something that at least I would have been aware of, right or prepared for.

It's just news that Catches Us By surprise, this is why risk management is so so important. Palace Beach will shift the market. it often does again. Another reason on why I'm choosing to reduce my position size.

but again, just because I'm choosing to do so doesn't mean that you need to. You need to respect yourself and your intentions and your risk tolerance. and I'm respecting mine. Here it goes, it sounds like Jerome Powell big JP Let me see that.

Submariner All right guys. I Hope that you guys enjoy this little live stream again. Jerome Powell's going to be speaking um, if this is your first time. If you have any questions, either save it after he speaks um or send me a direct message via Instagram review.

Discord Oh, let's get a round of applause. This is his script. Good afternoon! My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices. For the American people, we understand the hardship that high inflation is causing and we remain strongly committed to Bringing inflation back down to our two percent goal.

Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve Without price stability, the economy doesn't work for anyone. in particular. Without price stability, we will not achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all Since early last year, the Fomc has significantly tightened The Stance of monetary policy. Today, we took another step by raising our policy interest rate a quarter percentage point and we are continuing to reduce our Securities Holdings at a Brisk pace.

We've covered a lot of ground and the full effects of our tightening have yet to be felt ahead. We will continue to take a data dependent approach in determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate. I'll have more to say about monetary policy. After briefly reviewing economic developments, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace.

Growth in consumer spending appears to have slowed from earlier in the year, although activity in the housing sector has picked up somewhat. It remains well below levels of a year ago, largely reflecting higher mortgage rates. wow at higher education. Slower output growth also appear to be weighing on business fixed investment.

The labor market remains very tight over the past three months. Job gains average 244 000 jobs per month Pace below that scene earlier in the year, but still a strong pace. The unemployment rate remains low at 3.6 percent. There are some continuing signs that supply and demand in the labor market are coming into better balance.

The labor force participation rate has moved up since last year, particularly for individuals aged 25 to 54 years. Nominal wage growth has shown some signs of easing and job vacancies have declined so far this year. While the jobs to workers Gap has narrowed labor demands still substantially exceeds the supply of available workers, inflation remains well above our longer run goal of two percent over the 12 months ending in May Total Pce Prices rose three Productions excluding the volatile food and energy categories. Core Pce prices: Rose 4.6 percent in June The 12-month change in the Consumer Price, Index or CPI came in at 3.0 percent, and the change in the core CPI was 4.8 percent.

Inflation has moderated somewhat since the middle of last year. Nonetheless, the process of getting inflation back down to two percent has a long way to go. Despite elevated inflation, longer term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored, as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, as well as measures from financial markets. The Fed's monetary policy actions are: Guided By our mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American People acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship as it erodes purchasing power, especially for those least able to meet the higher cost of Essentials like food, housing, and transportation, we're highly attentive to the risks that high inflation poses to both sides of our mandate, and we are strongly committed to returning to inflation to our two percent objective.

Watch for the bounce off of the moving average. The committee raised a target range for the Federal Funds rate by a quarter percentage Point bringing the target range to five and a quarter to five and a half percent. We're also continuing the process of significantly reducing our Securities Holdings With today's action, we've raised our policy rate by five and a quarter percentage points. Since early last year, we have been seeing the effects of our policy tightening on demand in the most interest rate sensitive sectors of the economy, particularly housing and Investments It will take time, however, for the full effects of our ongoing monetary restraint to be realized, especially on inflation.

In addition, the economy is facing headwinds from tighter credit conditions for households and businesses, which are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to two percent. over time, the committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation and economic and financial developments. We will continue to make our decisions, meeting by meeting.

Based on the totality of the incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation as well as the balance of risks we remain committed to Bringing Inflation back to our two percent goal into keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored. Reducing inflation is likely to require a period of below Trend growth and some softening of labor market conditions. Restoring price stability is essential to set the stage for achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the longer run. To conclude, we understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country.

Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We at the FED will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals. Thank you and I look forward to your questions. All right here we go: Mr Chairman, Thank you.

Um, I think a couple times in your open remarks. Do you see you talked about this language? Not see the same resistance? Additional policy for me that may be appropriate Should we take that to mean that additional hikes are likely on the way? And should we also believe that all future meetings say September and November are alive or are you in a every other meeting mode? Thank you. So we haven't made a decision to go to every other meeting. It's not something we've looked at.

We're going to be going meeting by meeting, and as we go into each meeting, we're going to be asking ourselves the same question. So we haven't made any decisions about about any future meetings, including the pace at which we consider hiking, but we're going to be assessing the need for, uh, further tightening that may be appropriate. You read the language to return inflation to two percent over time. Um, I Would say that the intermediate data came in broadly in line with expectations.

Economic activity remained resilient, job creation remained strong while cooling a bit, and the June CPI report actually came in a bit better than expectations for a change. Um, that's the June CPI report of course, was welcome, but it's only one report, one month's data. We hope that inflation will follow a lower path as uh as was, but it will be consistent with the CPI reading. But we don't know that and we're just going to need to see more data.

So what are we going to be looking at? Really, it will be the broader, the whole broader picture. And starting with, we're looking for moderate growth, right? We're looking for supply and demand through the economy coming into better balance, including in particular in the labor market. We'll be looking at inflation We'll be asking miles NASDAQ option of data, as do we assess it as suggesting that we need to raise rates further. And if we make that conclusion, then we will go ahead and raise rates.

Wow, so that's what that's how we're thinking about the next meeting and and uh, you know how we're thinking about it Potentially, but you know we're now mainly thinking about the next meeting. I Will also say since we're talking about, is this an overreaction going down the September meeting, two more job reports, two more CPI reports I Think we have an ECI report coming later this week which is employment Compensation index and lots of data on economic activity. All of that information is going to inform our decision as we go into that meeting. I would say it is certainly possible that we would receive again at the September meeting if the data warranted and I would also say it's possible that we would choose to Hold Steady at that meeting, we're going to be making careful assessments as I said meeting my meeting and I'll close by saying we've raised the federal funds right now by 525 basis points since March 2022 Monetary policy we believe is restrictive and is putting downward pressure on economic activity.

Once again, something you said there. look at that, you said the data in the inconvenic period it broadly came in in line with expectations. Does that mean there's unlikely been a change in the uh overwhelming Outlook of the committee that two more Heights are necessary I'm just going to go back to what I said. You know that's the question we have eight weeks now until the September meeting and all that data that I received.

We're going to be looking at all that and making that assessment then. and it really. we did have the one good reading and of course we welcome that. but as everybody knows, look at that.

go and break even on the day this before in the data. Many forecasts call for for rates for for inflation to remain low, but we just don't know that until we see the data. so we'll be focusing on that. Gina Thank you.

thanks for taking my questions, chair pal. Um, obviously you upgraded the language around growth in the statement today. You know we've seen the Barbie movie numbers. we've seen everyone going to Taylor Swift concerts this summer.

It seems like the American Consumer is in pretty good shape and it does seem like growth is sort of picking back up a little bit or at least doing well. And I wonder from your perspective if that continues If we see growth not just stabilizing, but doing you know, performing well this summer? Is that a problem because it's inflationary? or is it good news because it suggests that a soft Landing is more likely just how are you thinking about that sort of trajectory. Yeah, so I would say it this way: the overall resilience of the economy, the fact that that we've been able to achieve disinflation so far without any meaningful, uh, negative impact on the labor market, the strength of the economy overall. Um, that's a good thing.

It's good to see that, of course it's also you see consumer consumer confidence coming up and things like that that will support you get activity going forward, but you're You're right though. at the margin, stronger growth could lead over time to higher inflation and that would require an appropriate response for monetary policy. so we'll be watching that carefully and seeing how it evolves over time. I Love that! Barbie question though that's pretty funny.

Uh, thanks, Chair Pal Nealer one from Uh. Axios. So, as you referenced earlier in the Intermedium period: soft CPI Jobs report Uh, still strong, but moderating. Uh, Joules looks good.

Uh, so if you're data dependent, why not pause again? why not stay on hold? why not take another meeting off When the data was wow to see. So um, if you go back to uh, what we're trying to do here, we're trying to achieve a stance of policy that's sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to two percent. At the last meeting, we wrote down our individual estimates of that would take of what that would take and the median of that was was uh was an additional two rate hikes. So I I would say we looked at the inter intermediate data and as I mentioned, broadly consistent.

Not perfectly consistent, but broadly consistent with expectations. And as a result we went ahead and took another step. And that's you know, a labor market that continues to be strong but but gradually slowing. Um I I mentioned this is a huge push, just a reminder for those that had the intention to lock in profits.

Just another reminder to stick to your plan wherever that might be again. NASDAQ Looking incredibly bullish, but again, very overbought. No breakup pattern yet, but just your reminder Nick Timaros to the Wall Street Journal Chair Parallel Markets Uh, widely believe the median Fomc participants inflation forecast from June for the fourth quarter of this year will be too high given autos and shelter. Uh, that by September that may warrant downward revision and the inflation forecast of 20 to 30 basis points with that type of inflation, progress be enough to hold rates steady from here.

Or do you need to see below Trend Growth and decelerating Labor Income Growth Convinced that you've done enough, so it's hard to pick the pieces apart and say you know how much of this and how much of that you know we will be looking at everything and you know we'll Of course we'll be looking to see whether the signal from June CPI is replicated or or the opposite of replicated or whether it's somewhere in the middle. We'll be looking at the growth data. We'll be looking at the labor market data very closely of course and making an overall Judgment of that. That's it's the totality of the beautiful place.

Congratulations on making progress! That was a tough one last month. You said there were benefits to moderation and make decisions. Testing support the one we just had in June allow you to at least maintain that slower pace and defer until the fall any decision on whether you need that second rate hike. So I'm just going to tell you again what we're going to do in September We're going to look at two additional job reports, two additional CPR codes lots of activity data, and that's what we're going to look at and we're going to make that decision then.

And that decision could could mean another hike in in September or it could mean that we decide to maintain at that level. And again, the question we're going to be asking ourselves is is the is the overall signal one that we need to do more that we need to tighten further And if we get that signal whenever we get it then and that's the collective Judgment of the committee, then we will move ahead. If we don't, you know then then we'll have the option of maintaining policy at that level. But it's it's you know, it's it's really dependent so much on the data and we just don't have it yet.

But Jerome Powell said is stop asking me the same question. My answer stays the same buddy. Chris Associated Press So uh, consumer confidence in the economy is rising Uh, likely in large part because of the declines in headline inflation. You also see wages are also Rising faster than prices now after trailing them for a long time.

How much are Americans truly uh, harmed by inflation at its current level headline level of three percent. And with that in mind, when do you put some weight back on the employment side of the Dual mandate? So I guess I'd say it this way. Um, first it is. It is a good thing that headline inflation has come down so much because that's really what the public experiences.

And and I I would say that having headline inflation moved down that much almost creates a it 'll strengthened the broad sense that that the public has that inflation is coming down which will in turn we hope help help inflation continue to move down. Um so you are really sorry your question was well I mean you've talked for many press conferences Now back the RSI everything looks good and how hard it is lack of progress are we still seeing with inflation now down at three so watch out for previous support new resistance I'd Say it this way. It's really a question of how do you balance the two risks. the risk of doing too much or doing too little and you know we I would say testing support.

You know we're coming to a place where where there really are risks on both sides. It's hard to say exactly whether whether they're in balance or not. but as our as our stances become more restrictive we and inflation moderates, we do increasingly face that risk. But um, you know we need to see that inflation is durably down that far.

You know, as you know we think and most economists think that core inflation is actually a better signal of of where headline inflation is going because Federal Inflation is affected greatly by vital uh, energy and food prices so we would want core inflation to be coming down because let's break that support, break that support future are the Bulls that strong? Certainly, whole policy at a restricted levels for some time and we need to be prepared to race further if that, if we think that's appropriate. Well, and then infantation were to just a quick follow. Uh, if it stays at three or drops even a little bit more, I mean how much of an increase in unemployment do you think is acceptable to get that last bit of inflation? People are talking about the potential difficulty of the last so-called Last Mile of inflation. So, but how much Again, how much unemployment do you think is Justified to get down that less? so it is? It is, um, a very positive thing.

that actually the unemployment rate is the same as it was when we left it off in March 22 at 3.6 percent. So that's a real blessing and that we've been able to achieve some disinflation and we don't seek to it. It's not that we're aiming to to raise unemployment, but I would just say the historical record. We have to be honest about the historical record, which does suggest that when central banks go in and slow the economy to bring down inflation, the result tends to be some softening in labor market conditions and so that is still the the likely outcome here.

Testing support and you know the worst outcome for everyone Of course, would be not to deal with inflation Now not get it done. Uh, whatever. The beautiful social classes under control, the longer term social costs of failing to do so are greater, and that the historical record is very, very clear on that. If you go through a period where inflation expectations are not anchored, inflation is volatile.

It interferes with people's lives and with economic activity. and you know that's that's the thing we we really need to avoid. And we'll avoid. Okay, at this point you say the policy is restrictive, but all year long we have seen gross surprise to the upside.

unemployment, to the downside, and inflation lately, to the downside. Beautiful. Uh, by definition, should you be restrictive enough right now under these conditions. Do you think you might need to do more? because I'm curious about what you see as inflation? Dynamics Now is the economy still moving? All the resistance, new support, watch out, base effects and higher energy costs.

And now we have, uh, some large labor settlements? Or is the economy disinflating? Uh, and you're just. you're able to go back to the old Fed policy of opportunistic disinflation. So I'll just say again. the broader picture of what we want to see is: we want to see easing of Supply constraints of strengths and normalization of pandemic related distortions to demand.

and Supply we want to see very critical range right Now here for Nasdaq Market The reason why is it pulled back enough already that NASDAQ can find a support here I'm saying this for all of the Bulls if you're being very very I'm sorry all of the Bears If you're being very aggressive, you're not doing anything about your position size. be very, very careful at the specific Zone At least that's what I'm choosing to do. Just my two cents. I Just don't want you to put yourself in a position that is too too risky.

so just a heads up on that restrictive. A little restrictive enough for long enough to have its full desired effects. So we intend again to keep policy restrictive until we're confident that inflation is coming down sustainably toward our two percent Target and we're prepared to further tighten if that is appropriate. and we think the process you know still probably has a long way to go.

Well, do you think, uh, under current conditions you are are restrictive enough unless something changes? Well, I think we think you know today's rate hike was appropriate and I think we're going to be looking at the incoming data to inform our decision at the next meeting about is the incoming data telling us that we need to do more and if it does tell us that collectively that's our view then we will do more. Call me I don't know how many times he has to answer the same questions where With the need for a more gradual tightening Pace that you spoke of last month, the funds right steady at the June meeting. So a more gradual Pace doesn't go immediately to every other meeting. It could be two out of three meetings, right? it could be.

It just means if you you're slowing down. The point really was to slow down the decision cycle as we as we get closer and closer to we think our destination and I I wouldn't want to go automatically to every other meeting because I just don't think that's we don't I Think it's not an environment where we want to provide a lot of forward guidance. it's there's a lot of uncertainty out there. We just want to keep moving at what we think is the right pace.

and I do think it makes all the sense in the world to slow down as we now make these finally judged decisions. Watch for the reversal we did. and so I I Think it's possible I mentioned before, it's possible that bouncing taking that off the table or we might not. It's really going to depend on what the data tells, that's the best we can do.

so we shouldn't assume that every other meeting is the lowest tightening frequency. Let's say it could be. you know, longer intervals in between as well I Think we're gonna look I think we're gonna. We're gonna make a decision about the next meeting and then we're going to make a decision about the one after that.

And uh, I think it'll sort itself out. Ah, thanks. Uh Howard Schneider with Reuters Um so so among your colleagues, there have been people who've said they feel that very little transmission uh has taken place so far from monetary policy into the economy and there are those uh who feel they say it's happened very fast this time and it's kind of up to date. Uh, where are you on that continuum Um, so there's a long-running debate, uh, about the lags between changes in financial conditions and the response to those changes from economic activity and inflation, right? So we know that in the modern era Financial conditions move in anticipation of our decisions, and that has clearly been the case in this cycle.

So in a sense, the clock starts earlier than it than it used to. but that doesn't necessarily change the process from that point on and it's not clear that it has. We also we this is I'll tell you what we know and then what we don't know. We know that Financial conditions affect economic activity and inflation with a lag that can be long and variable or lags plural that can be along a variable.

A lot of uncertainty around the length of the lags and by the way, that's just one component of the broader uncertainty. NASDAQ Market is holding right now, so we're testing our resistance right around 378.50 for QQQ Just a little heads up for both the Bulls and the Berries tools to do that, No one should doubt that I would look at it. This way though, the real Federal Funds rate is now in a meaningfully positive territory. If you take the nominal Federal Funds rate, subtract a mainstream estimate of near-term inflation expectations, you get a real Federal Funds rate that is well above most estimates of the longer term neutral rate.

So I would say monetary policy is restrictive. More so after today's decision, meaning that it is putting downward pressure on economic activity and inflation, we'll keep monetary policy restricted until we think it's not appropriate to do so. So that's how I think about it. I Mean we've come a long way.

We are resolutely committed to returning inflation to our two percent goal. Over time, inflation has proved repeatedly has proved stronger than we in other forecasts forecasters have expected, and at some point that may change. We have to be ready to follow the data. and given how far we've come, we can afford to be a little patient as well as Resolute as we let this unfold on the credit side.

I'm wondering if you saw anything in the in the latest news stated that made you think you're getting a Quantum of credit contraction beyond what you'd expect. Uh, the Bank Lower highs rates edging down towards and below is heading below zero which is usually uh, you know, a recession indicator. So I guess the the sluice will come out early next week and I would just say it's it's broadly in condition. it consistent with what you would expect.

You've got lending conditions tight and getting a little tighter. You've got weak demand and you know it. It gives a picture of a pretty tight credit conditions in the economy I Think it's really hard to tease out whether how much of that is from this Source or that Source But I Think what matters is the overall picture is of tight and tightening lending conditions and that's that's what this loose will say. it's great.

So hi chair Powell Rachel Siegel from The Washington Post Thanks for taking our questions. Could you break down the reasons why inflation has fallen and what share of that credit you would give to factors that don't stem directly from rate hikes or that might be within your control at all using Supply chains and a drop in Energy prices over the past year? Yeah, um, so interesting question. So let me start by saying that the inflation surge that we saw in the pandemic resulted from a collision of elevated demand and and constrained Supply both of which followed from the unprecedented features of a pandemic and the response from fiscal and monetary policy. and we've always expected that the disinflationary process would stem from both from the normalization of those broad pandemic related supply and demand conditions and pharmaceutical restrictive monetary policy which would help return the balance between supply and demand by restraining demand.

And we think that's broadly what we're what we're seeing. So to go break it down a little further course, headline inflation has come down sharply from elevated levels as energy and food prices have come down mostly due to reversal the effects from the war in Ukraine and that's that's a good thing. And the public experience is that as I mentioned earlier for core inflation I'd say there also there has been a role for for most for for both factors both that I mentioned clearly in for Goods normalization Supply conditions support is playing an important role, as is the Um. the reversal the beginning of the reversal of spending back into services and away from good.

JP Talking about reversals as an example of the combination of an increase in sales and inventories Well, while vehicle inflation has decelerated, points to a substantial role for Supply, but there's also a role for demand. As you know, the loans and things like that are more expensive so they're both working there. Housing Services Inflation now starts to move down. Clearly, higher rates have have slowed the housing market.

Um, uh, you know I would say monetary policy is working about as we expect and we think we think it'll play an important role going forward in particular in non-housing Services Where really we think that's that's where the labor market? Uh, just a heads up. In two minutes, power hour begins. which means it's the last hour of Market open. Just a little heads up on that.

And then Meta reports earnings which again, I will be live right when the market closes. Those two sources that core will rely more heavily on seeing an impact from rate hikes or is there a more even split there too. I Think monetary policy is going to be important going forward because we we're sort of reaping now the benefits of the of the reversal of some of the very specific pandemic things. we're seeing that with Goods in particular, with Supply chains and shortages moving and we're seeing so so I Think going forward monetary policy will be important.

particularly in that in the sector. Uh, in the non-hazick services sector. Edward Thank you Chairpower. First, let me compliment your tie the choice of tie.

Um, so thanks for taking our questions. So the Beige Book it said input cost pressures remain elevated for services firms but ease. Notably for manufacturing sectors. That an indication that there's a wage inflation pressure.

And how do you target. Here we go on the wage inflation without pushing the economy into recession. I Think that as it relates to Goods it's really an indication that that Supply chains and and shortages are easing and so what was the first part of it? So so uh, Wage inflation? Like how do you? how do you target wage inflation without pushing an economy into a recession? I I Don't I Don't think we're targeting wage inflation I Think I Think what we're what we're looking for is a broad Cooling in labor market conditions. And that's what we're seeing.

So wages have actually been gradually moving down. They're still at levels. what would that would be consistent over a long period of time with two percent inflation? Nonetheless, we're making progress there. And by.

by so many indicators, labor market demand is cooling. You can. You can look at surveys by workers and businesses who see that you. You can look at the quits rate normalizing.

You can look at job openings coming down. You can look at just job creation in there. Look at that establishment survey has you know it's still at a high level. but it was a really extraordinarily high level for most of the last two years.

So you see cooling, particularly in private sector in the last you know in the last report. So I think we see that and it's happening at a gradual pace. So that's actually not a bad thing in a sense because it if what we see is a labor market. Very strong demand for labor, which is really the engine of the economy.

People are getting hired, many people going back to work, getting wages, spending money, and that's really what's driving the economy. but that it's gradually slowing, it's gradually cooling. That's that's a good prescription for getting where we want to get. but still.

we see a push to raise minimum wage. We're seeing a lot of unions go on strike or threaten strike and the common thing is they come out with agreements like big pay increases like ups and we have the Auto Workers coming up. Are you concerned then about a trend? a series of big unions these contract pushing wage inflation? then not for us to comment on on contract negotiations, not our job, not our role? Um, you know we. We monitor these things and we'll keep an eye on them.

But uh, really, that's something that's that's handled at that level. And uh, all right, Power Hour is here hi Victoria Guido with Politico um I wanted to ask about the SCP which suggests that you would cut rates as overall increase you get to around or under three percent. And so I'm wondering is the level of inflation? Um, what's sort of important there is to worry about getting to two percent and when you might start cutting rates or is the speed at which inflation is falling also important? I Think you'd take both into account I Think you take everything into account when you start cutting rights. It would depend on on the whole on a wide range of things.

and when people are writing down rate Cuts next year, you know it's it's It just is a sense that inflation is coming down and we're comfortable that it's coming down and it's time to start cutting rates I think But I mean it's There's a lot of uncertainty between what happens, you know in the next meeting cycle, let alone the next year, let alone the year after that. So it's a it's hard to say exactly what what happens there, what's motivating people. So it was sort of sort of stubbornly in maybe the high twos, you wouldn't necessarily cut grades I'm not I'm not saying that at all. I'm not giving you any numerical guidance around that.

I'm saying we would. We'd be comfortable cutting rates when we're comfortable cutting rates and that won't be this year. I Don't think it would be, but you know many people wrote down rate cuts for next year. I Think the meeting with several for next year and that's just going to be a judgment that we have to make then a full year from now and instead he doesn't believe any rate.

Cuts This year is in fact coming down to our two percent. Wow. Cool. That's the first time I've heard of that.

A good part of Wall Street has become more confident that the FED is going to be able to engineer a soft landing and they've reduced their forecast for recession. And I'm wondering if the staff has changed its view on the likelihood of a recession being likely. and if you personally have changed your view in terms of becoming more confident that you can achieve a soft Landing So, Um Forrest Gump It's It has been my view consistently that we do have a shot in my base cases that we will be able to achieve Uh inflation. moving back down to our Target without the kind of really significant downturn that results in high levels of job losses that we've seen in some past.

Uh, in some past and many past instances of tightening that look like ours, that's been my view that that is. that's uh, that's still my view. Um. and I Think you know that that's sort of consistent with with Um with what I See Uh today? So but it's it's a long way from assured and and you know we, we have a lot left to go to see that happen.

So the staff now has a noticeable slowdown in growth starting later this year in the forecast. but given the resilience of the economy recently, they are no longer forecasting a recession. It's I Just want to note that it's that our staff produces its own forecast which is independent of the forecast that we as Fomc participants produce. Having an independent staff forecast as well as the individual participant forecast is really a strange Um.

there's just a lot of Um I think constructive diversity of opinion that that helps us make a informs our deliberations, helps us make I hope better decisions. and it's the reason for optimism that inflation has come down and you still have a strong labor market. I Mean is that add to the optimism? I Wouldn't use the term optimism about this yet? I Would I Would say though that there's a pathway and yes, that's that's that's a good way to think about it. We've we've seen so far the beginnings of disinflation without any real costs in the labor market, and that's that's a really good thing.

I Would just also say the historical records suggests that there's very likely to be some softening at labor market conditions and consistent with having a soft Landing you would have some softening in labor market conditions and that's still likely as we as we go forward with this process. But it's it's a good thing to date that we haven't. We haven't really seen that we've seen softening through either. Not through Unemployment not through higher unemployment.

We've seen softening. Watch for the break. You know, job openings coming down. Watch for the break or watch for the bounce rate.

So people are not quitting as much. We've seen participation people coming in and so labor supply has has improved which is which has lowered the temperature in the labor market which was quite overheated. Uh, you know going back a year or so so we're seeing that kind of cooling and that's that's very healthy and um you know we hope it continues. Okay, thank you Mr Chairman Jeff Cox From Cnbc.com Um, you and other Fed officials in the past have suggested that you don't need to keep there.

We go until inflation hits two percent. That, um, continued progress. So I'm wondering, how close do you need to get with the inflation numbers coming down? How many months of data do you need to see that will? That will give you sufficient confidence. And um, you know how how how far does this fight need to go before you're willing to kind of declare Victory on it.

So the idea that we would keep signaling us to two percent it would be violation of going way past the target. That's clearly not the appropriate way to think about it. Go. So, um, go in effect.

If you look at our forecasts, we we uh, the median participant and again, these are these are forecasting out years so take them with a grain of salt. But um, people are cutting rates next year all in one minute. So if we see testing moving average incredibly sustainably don't need to be at a restrictive level anymore. Oh boy, we can do that, feels good and then below a neutral level at a certain point I Think we would.

You know we would. We, of course would be very careful about that. We'd really want to be sure cautious. Strong resistance there and it's hard to make.

I'm not going to try to make a numerical assessment of when and where that would be, but that's the way I would think about it is. Um, you'd start, you'd stop raising long before you, you got to two percent inflation and you started cutting before you got the two percent deflation too, because we don't see ourselves getting a two percent inflation until you know, all the way back to two until 2025 or so. So what do you guys think that we're at for the day? Let me know in the live chat. Oh, just broke above.

Thank you chair pal. Jennifer Sean Berger With Yahoo Finance: it's been over four months since a handful of regional Banks including Silicon Valley Bank failed when you look at credit conditions. Now given Bank of California's acquisition of Pac West does this acquisition suggest Wow. The full impact? Wow.

Wow, Wow. Or are you comfortable saying that we've seen effects that may have occurred at this point. and how does this overreaction? We caught it. So I Don't want to comment on any particular merger proposal, but but I will say, um, things have settled down.

Uh, for sure out there deposit flows have stabilized, capital and liquidity remains strong. Aggregate: Bank Lending with stable quarter over quarter and is up significantly year over year. Banking sector profits generally uh, are coming in strong this quarter and overall the banking system remains strong and resilient. Of course, we're still watching.

Uh, you know the situation carefully and monitoring. Uh, you kn