Hello, welcome back well folks, i titled this. The market is green with lots of red, because if you watch the last video i posted you would agree, it is bloody out there for the small caps and uh. You know nobody knows when it's going to end. If somebody in the comments knows when it's going to end, let me know because i think the small caps are just going to keep getting crapped on and i think quite in many cases quite unfairly hold on one sec.

Thumbnail got ta, get that done uh and you know so. If you're in the small caps and you're getting wrecked, i don't really think it's your fault. I think it's institutions just being little weenie babies uh. I have sold the vast majority of my exposure to small caps, with the exception of like robin hood and corsair, but boy, oh boy, this sector is nasty, it's so bloody uh.

It's! So personally, i don't blame people for dipping out of the smalls and just wait. Wait for confirmation of a reversal, uh and uh. That's that's a a lot of where, where i stand right now, at least on these guys, uh and see, i'm not i'm not unwilling to add more to some of my my larger positions right now and then when and if we see a reversal either. I do nothing which is fine, it's it's always it's okay, to do nothing or sell a little bit of the large and then go shopping for the small, but right now i'll tell you until we get that reversal.

Oh, it's bloody for the smalls. I feel bad because these, the small caps are honestly the companies that need the money the most and it's times like these in the market, where this small cap pain stays long that you could actually see. Some of these small caps basically fall behind permanently because here's here's the reason for that think about this. Okay, so let's say you are uh running a uh, a flipping business, okay and you need access to a five million dollar credit line to uh run your business that is, buy flips buy materials.

You know you sell your flips, you repay your line of credit whatever, and you go back and forth right. So you have this line of credit being a small cap stock right now and then all these small caps getting sold off is like somebody coming to you and saying: hey, you used to have a line of credit at five mil. Now your line of credit is going to be 2 million and the rationale there is now your your opportunity for liquidity is constrained. It's harder.

It's like you got a choke call around your neck and you're supposed to like still grow right, and that, i think, is what a lot of the small caps are feeling and it sucks it really sucks. So uh remember when, when a stock goes down, it uh, it makes it harder for these companies to raise money either through a bond offering or through uh through equity, and there are only a few of the smaller companies that are actually doing quite well compared to The others one of them is mp materials. Now i think a lot of this has to do with the acknowledgement that rare earth mineral mining is critical for electric vehicle engines. A lot of people are still stuck in.

This thought that uh mining for electric vehicles only has to do with lithium and, if you're not doing lithium, that's it but uh mp material for rare earth mining. They have been killing it they've been on a beautiful uptrend they're, one of the smaller caps uh. It's not quite like super small, i mean it's more of like a mid cap. A small cap usually deemed to be under like two to three billion dollars under those levels uh this.

So this would be a little bit more of a mid cap. Of course, like tesla and apple and such they would be more of your mega caps or super mega caps, but yeah mp material for a smaller company. It really kicking butt. Upwork is interesting.

Look at upwork folks. It right now is trading for levels that we have not seen since january of 2021. It's basically at its may level right now, which is crazy, because may may thinks. Oh, you can't see, it may was pretty dang low.

That would help if i share the screen. Uh may was pretty painfully low, uh 6.51 to the upside right now, on on upwork. Part of me does think a lot of upworks movement is occurring because, even though omicron is something that isn't being deemed uh, you know so severe. It's it's uh.

You know more more knock on wood like a cold, it is still shutting down offices and it's still pushing that demand for remote work so kind of interesting to see upwork move today. Uh, then, let's see, let me look at the downside. Look at this red! Oh, my gosh, it's gotten even worse. This is the blood i'm talking about folks holy moly, i mean, if you're in any of these smallers you're, just getting destroyed uh.

You know lemonade 42., my gosh, it hasn't broken that 40 level yet, but these are some nasty levels here: dd down five percent uh piton uh, clever, leaf holding tmc anything smaller cap in the millions of market cap wrecked just getting wrecked uh the chargers have not Been doing great either, let me see where chargepoint's been sitting chpt. Yes, it's been stuck see. Chargepoint's been stuck under its 20 line over here, it's sitting right at 19.. I think i've got the support drawn for at 17 or sorry 1970 on this one.

So but other, let's see tesla somebody says tesla's not doing oh yeah tesla's settling down again a little bit. Well, that's probably a good thing uh, because the surge in the s p 500 is just nuts but hey, call lee a lot of people are going to be buying the s p 500, going into 2022 hoping for another 2021. I don't think it's gon na happen, but we'll see look at rivian here, 10 on rivien still rallying into the end of the day, we'll see how i mean they did just report on earnings already they kind of fell after earnings after the deliveries miss you. Don't even have the weeble e up yet for earnings, but uh they've actually recovered nicely.

It's not so bad 107, not bad at all. So i don't know, maybe maybe that's the floor for rivian's pricing somewhere around 88, we'll see we'll see. Let's take a look at btc, yeah btc did get rejected at uh, 52. you're, totally right andre.

We were looking at this this morning as well and for some reason it has been a slow starting for btc to come back. It's been a little frustrating for a lot of folks in in the crypto space, but it's been a little slow starting. I've purposely been diversifying and the basket's been doing really well on on this sort of bounce off of the floor here. Uh, i'm hoping this bullish activity continues, but it's been tough to get btc even back to 54k.

So we'll see what happens i'll post a crypto update later as well; okay, let's go ahead and look at some news that we've got and pull up the term as well. Let's see what we have here: okay, more flight cancellations, covet storms; okay, this is all old news. We already covered all this stuff this morning. We want the new news, that's what we want with 22k.

Would you buy two six month options or one one and a half year call option for tesla uh, i honestly probably wouldn't buy either of those i would just buy tesla. I know people don't like to hear that but options. If you know, if you got 20k to your like, if that's your entire portfolio, not financial advice, but i wouldn't even touch options, options for me are uh and i do a lot of options. Don't get me wrong.

I love setting my options. Trade notification stuff, but they are the the easiest way to either make it big or just lose nastily and fast uh. It is, it is so painful, and then you get a lot of paper handing naturally as well uh in um in options because they bleed so quickly. So i always just recommend be careful with options.

For example, we were talking about this in the course member live stream. It's like we're. We're going to be in this nasty phase of waiting for small caps to rotate boy, oh boy, if you're in options you're just getting screwed, and i have corsair and hood options and so you're getting screwed on those, whereas shares you're you're like okay, who cares like? I got time i got time you just. Let call me call me when the rotation's here, but it ain't anywhere close right now.

Oh shout out to uh dania for uh buying the real estate course hold on a sec. Let me see here, what am i trying to do? Let me get the news up bloomberg there. We go okay, so, let's see here, u.s stocks head toward record 69th record close of the year wow 69. goldman will require coveted boosters um.

Not much has honestly changed from this morning. The only thing that's changed is small. Caps are selling off more. That's it.

That's, basically what our change has been so far. I will let me check the back end here as well. Let me see here. Okay, let's see here markets, okay, u.s stocks rose rose on a fourth day on monday, amid thin trading as investors evaluated prospects for the year-end rally.

Okay, santa claus rally kicked off on monday yeah, except for small caps. Small caps getting penalized see what else commodity demand stays robust even with holiday shutdown. I hate commodities, but they've done well. They've done quite well: cotton prices, tight supply, okay, investors show interest in two-year sale, huh people actually buying the two-year bond oil gains.

As traders look through albacron um global asset managers could be setting up for a treasury sell-off. Global asset managers have sold both the 5-year and 10-year futures. Today, many investors are preparing for the rate market to resume lower in the new year after recent bull steepening. Okay, there is so little news today that is incredible.

Well, nope! That's that's pretty much it! Okay, no problem! So, let's see here, let's do a wall street journal peek! Let's see if we got anything new over here. This is literally the same headline. These are the same headlines. We had this morning: nothing's changed flights, crypto evergrand boring all right whatever, so we'll just look at individual stocks, fine.

So what do we got? Let's see here, let's see, what's what's in massive mega pain, right now? Well, the small caps. We know that nine six to nine percent - this is a big sell-off. I mean usually when, when we scroll to the bottom of the chart like this, we uh you know we have like maybe what four or five stocks that are just like. Ah, these are losing and then everything else is like minus two percent or minus one percent.

On the red side, this is nasty. That's a big old sell-off, blue apron, clever smile, direct invitate, 23 and me and there's no end in sight. I mean lemonade is still not under 40., so that's been one of the floors that we've been talking about. Uh piton fell to new lows 35 last trading day.

Fastly is getting beat up as well. Wow fastly is only a 4.4 billion dollar market cap. I didn't know is that small yeah unreal, okay, wayfair wow, look at wayfair just get destroyed, wayfarer has a 20 billion dollar market cap and next to restoration hardware, it's just gotten whacked, look at that. It broke out to the downside.

Out of the channel we had for it and it is not showing any sign of letting up oops, let's go to restoration hardware. Restoration hardware's actually had a little bit of the parabolic u-turn here as well spy spiking into the clothes we got 11 minutes to go. Let's see yeah you're right getting that volume into the clothes look at this folks the day chart on the s p. 500.

We are going right back to that trend line. I have not moved this trend line in a very long time and it just continues to hold. It's been insane: yeah yeah. It is it's true.

You know you talk about the small cap sector bleeding out, and then you always see those comments like what are you talking about? Gsmp is up five percent for the week. What are you talking about? Stocks are down. Meanwhile, everybody with small cap stocks is just like crying, i wanted to say something else, but i'm not going to uh yeah uh thoughts on fisker, not much. I run my instagram account.

Fitness goals watch my failure. Video from this weekend, uh thanks again shout out to the real estate course. Can you look at pan w palo alto network cyber security? It's been doing better than the crown club pan w i'll write it down. I don't know anything about it.

I literally know nothing about it pan w, but i wrote it down and put a little question mark there. Uh. Oh trust me i i looked at uh, look at my deep dive on rivia and i got a big deep dive on on rivian. Okay, we answered that jpm uh has a peg of 1.38 operating margin of 47 profit margin, 38.

uh 1.57 trillion in cash. If interest rates are expected to go up, why are banks not a safe buy? I i think you can't go wrong owning jpm. I don't care about jpm. I just stormed out of a jpm really pissed off uh, but you know i already did my ranting on that in the course member live stream.

So i'm not gon na. Do it here, uh yeah anyway, figgs has been getting. You know what fakes has been getting murdered ever since i bought one of the the little coats i bought the coat, not the stock. So and basically, in that case, the money i put in the coat has stored its value better than the actual stock uh, but yeah yeah most people consider the banks as a safe buy.

I agree with that yeah like i'm not looking to like. I don't think jpm's gon na revolutionize the world in the next 10 years. You know, uh, you know i'm much more interested in uh, my faves, but uh wow. I just i feel bad.

I you know i mean of my portfolio. Let me, let me add this up really quick of my portfolio. What's left of my portfolio, that's in small caps! I am right now i'm going to consider uh sofi, so that's about 400 uh. Then i've got in terms of small calves.

We just did this this morning. Matapor is kind of smallish lemonade, zero, corsair. Of course, there's the next one. That's about 250k, i'm not ru, okay, commander port's a little more mid-ish.

Well, but then again, i guess i should i'll count it. So if i counted matterport sofie robin hood, all as my small caps and corsair, if i counted all of those i'd be somewhere about 10 percent of my is exposed to small caps, so that means 90 is is medium to actually probably 90 large caps, large and Megas uh, like um, you know a firm amazon apple, google uh. What else we got here? Uh, oh end, phase, etsy right! Those are 25 to 30 trillion dollar companies. So yeah i mean looking at it that way.

If 10 of my portfolio is in smalls. Most of my portfolio should be doing okay in this market and it is, but i just can't help it, but be very sad about the the fintech sell-off because, like the fintechs are sucking right, the paypal, the sofi, the robin hoods right, they're, all sucking, but then, Like the small caps within that or the smaller ones within that, like the robin hood and so far as being smaller within that batch they're selling off even more, it's tough, we hope they're at bottom, but it's been a crazy ride. Crazy! All right! Let's go! Take a look at uh, tesla or eth huddle for all of 2022 ooh. That's a dirty question! Oh man, oh man! Well, i think that ethereum is going to go to ethereum 2.0 in 2022, and i really hate saying this, but i think ethereum is gon na there's gon na be a lot of selling when ethereum 2.0 comes around people are going to think it's going to be.

This crazy bullish thing that that's it we're you know ethereum's going to the moon. I think it's going to be a crap ton of appreciated ethereum. That is now basically going to be a massive lock-up, expiration and people are going to be able to go, buy the alts and and go diversify so uh. I i expect ethereum 2.0 transition will work well, but i don't think it'll do very well.

Therefore tesla my pure speculation there now, if, if somebody asked me if i thought that, like matic or tara, luna or or solana, would outperform tesla, i probably would agree, uh probably would agree huddle both wasn't the choice they gave me though, but i agree with you: Matt uh or cardano right, yeah, uh, actually yeah, that is, it is kind of like cardano, so cardano when uh when they had their uh substantial. What was the alonso hard fork uh, that was, that was a big old sell, the news man, oh my gosh, because that was like the big intro to smart contracts and nfts on the cardano network. Oh yeah, yeah see this is what i'm talking about. Like look, i'm happy for you because you got a 4x.

My friend look at this comment. My eath has been locked up since 100. I want my eat back already. I was actually ready to start my own like staking pool and everything and then i'm like, but then it's locked up, you know if tesla falls.

Look. Let me put it this way. The reason i don't like lockups is because if tesla falls to 200, i'm selling every freaking stock and crypto i own and i'm loading the boat. But i can't do that if it's locked up right, uh and don't get me wrong, i think sometimes lockups are a really good thing because uh, you know.

Sometimes, if we trade too much, we get a little too emotional about something it could end up leading to worse returns. So i recognize that but uh you know, there's there's logic to everything. Uh, look at this rally, the s p, just rallying into the close. We got about two minutes left into the close how's, my head, eight.

I think it's down a little now. Isn't it didn't it go down uh, it's not at highs of the day. That's for sure it's only up 0.48 right now, btc being a little slow here. Uh, what did i? What did i do? Last time i'm going to pull up.

Let me see here maybe a little too late for this uh, i'm going gon na pull it up anyway. So, okay, hot hot hut, i have hut calls of five dollars. Uh, i'm gon na buy some more of those options. All right, i'm gon na buy the same ones hot eight dude it takes so long.

It's so annoying and i'm gon na go for a limit and i'm just gon na buy a hundred by day. All right. It's kind of i don't know if that order will go through in time it might not, but i'm going to put it in anyway. Okay, we got one minute left.

Can i go through yeah pay a darn commission. I don't think it's gon na go through that. Doesn't seem to be going through all right, whatever see this happened to me the last time too, and it actually was a good thing yeah. I can't i can't get it through, never mind whatever i was gon na buy it, but i guess i'm not ah stupid.

Whatever, whatever uh, let's see how things are closing? No, no, i can't get it up. I can't get it up all right, whatever. Let's listen to the closing bell for the dow, which itself is the second high and one point four percent, this game for the nasdaq. The dow in the nasdaq still a little way off their own the record all-time, focusing okay, just under 1, 0.98 s, p, 1.39, nasdaq, 1.39 russell pointing out wow.

The russell actually ended up going positive. Oh, how did it close at no freaking way? It actually went through literally the last second, i am blown away. I was not expecting that to go through uh, oh well, hold on one side, all right, we're gon na we're gon na review this in just a second here. You know what let's listen to them.

For just a second, the start of the santa claus rally: is it not? It is yes, so starts today, we'll run through the first two days of next week. The first two trading days of the new year and what it really represents, is a period which has been up over the course of history, 80 of all years, uh and actually up a pretty pronounced way. I mean after today, you're up 1.2 or something like that to start off and put you in a little bit of a head start and the usefulness of this period is that it so has a strong tendency. Yeah.

I said earlier in the uh in case anyone's because i know some people might be wondering i said earlier in the course member live stream somebody's like oh. What would you buy today and i gave a few stocks i was looking at, but i said i was probably most likely to buy a little bit of the uh hud 8 calls just add to that position a little bit and um. I did okay, so uh. Let's see how things ended up closing calls super dangerous, so just be careful, especially robinhood, but one day one day, they'll rally doug asks.

How do i bring myself to buy a stock when it's up two thousand percent? What which stock are you talking about uh, and it depends how far back you're looking right all right? Let's see how something's closed so uh camber energy got some big momentum over here, 16 upstart wow this morning, upstart was up about four percent. I said if i was gon na day trade, i would day trade upstart and if you did that you would have made some money today, so good job, upstart mp, material, 7.49, incredible, a firm four and a half percent decent again. The larger caps did the moves. Today they did the numbers two and a half percent on tesla uh.

So far, the fact that it was up two percent nice, but it's just so nominal cloud flare sitting at about one 139: okay, btc still getting stuck around um; okay, we're back over 51. 51. 2 right now, doug must be looking at the five-year chart. Yeah, maybe uh uh.

There you go there, you go brandon. That was me. I asked about hot aid. I bought some with you crash or burn.

That's right. We were either going rock it to the moon or crash and burn. That's right, that's, and as long as you go into options, knowing that with bought options, they're yolos, it's okay, uh, you know, like i feel bad, like sometimes like publicly, even on the youtube channel. Like oh i'm going in on this yolo on these options, uh and sometimes they do really well and obviously i'm happy, but sometimes they don't and then it's like or people hold them, they diamond hand them too long, and then it's like sorry, i'm like yeah, be Really careful like that, it's it's a roulette table.

You try to be right, 70 to 80 of the time with options, but it's still a roulette table, wow, just bloody small caps, and we have no idea when this is going to u-turn. How is uh neo doing? Let me see here: neo neo, stuck under 30., just can't get up over 30., that's painful! All right 90 of my losses happened when i held calls too long. I know that's that's exactly what i'm saying like it's. It sucks because you're just like! Ah, you don't want to take the loss, uh and uh, because you're like i think it's going to go up, but then it just it just keeps bleeding.

Sometimes the best thing to do in a case like this is uh, and i hate saying this because you could do it and then, like the stock, goes up 10, the next day and you're like wrong. You know uh, but sometimes the best thing to do is close. The call and sell a put - and you know that way - you're at least a little bit more insulated you're, getting a little bit of a credit. Uh doesn't mean you, you know the stock can't just go down to zero, but uh.

You know which that would suck but yeah. It can be painful all right. What what else is news? They say, there's breaking news over here. I don't.

I don't believe, there's breaking news, there's there's nothing. Let's listen things like a much weaker dollar and sustainably weaker dollar we'd also need to see a much steeper yield curve and again those higher real rates. But what we like within value is that we kind of want to de-emphasize the financial parts of the value sector. We see some pretty weak areas of things like banks, insurance.

All of the relative performance trends, are rather weak in financial she's, not wrong. Finance feels, like i mean, look at lemonade or some of the other financials it sucks so far. Paypal, materials and health care, as well, so moving to be more underweight the financials within our value, exposure and overweight. These real estate materials and healthcare, which are really more late cycle as we move again later into this cycle.

Jim, do you agree avoid the banks later in this cycle? I feel like we're like early start tracking up i'll, get a lot more interested in them. I think there is some possibilities for yeah whatever i don't really care. Okay, so these people just bantering so uh somebody asked what about hud. So i'm not i'm not.

I don't have long positions on hut. I just have short-term options on them. Probably i don't know 80k or something like that. But yeah you know it's uh, it's it's a swing.

Trade is what it is uh mostly because hud aid is is insulated from the small caps, because it moves with btc uh. It doesn't move with the small caps. Even though it is a small cap, it doesn't move with small caps. It moves with btc, so you kind of got to know what the catalyst is, but i mean this is just i mean some of these companies.

I i think some of these companies are great freaking companies - i'm not invested in any of these right here at the bottom, but i think crispr, phenomenal company look at it. It's at 77! Look at what this thing ran. To i mean this is insane yeah. Look at this, this thing ran to 220 folks, 67 divided by 220 means it's dropped.

70 percent. Okay! Imagine this tesla at 1100 times 0.3. That would literally be like tesla going from 1100 down to 330. come on man, how many people will be freaking out if tesla did that and that's exactly what happened to crispr therapeutics disaster, terrible disaster uh, let's uh, let's do another one here! What else we got here? Um yeah, i mean lemonade's just another example: lemonade did have a hype cycle.

I'd say probably that that 80 to 100 range is like, or at least was somewhat reasonable, but i mean it's like half of that right now, which is insane 40 40 to 50 percent of it today it's insane, i mean some of these are just nasty plummets. Here pay safe, my goodness uh and another one i wasn't in, but look at it was a 20 stock. At one point three dollars: folks: it went from a 20 stock to a penny stock. Remember what i said.

Folks, penny stocks, nobody ipos a company as a penny, stock stocks become penny stocks and that's scary, and some of these have just been continuing and that's why i sold so many of my small caps because they just kept bleeding and bleeding and bleeding. And now i just look every day like when am i: when are they gon na rebound so far? They're? Not it's so painful, again: small caps, ten percent of my portfolio, so i you know, i'm not gon na lose sleep over it. It's a bummer but smaller part of the portfolio, the um. What do we got here? Rivien and lucid, i think, are still opportunities for a short.

Let me see rivian here, yeah rivian did have its numbers come out, so you know it's. It's got some momentum. I'd say next to have pain is probably well lucid's still also still been having its pain. I think, honestly, both rivian and lucid if they report bad december deliveries or q4 deliveries in january in, like four days, both have a substantial movement to the downside ahead of them, uh rivian, probably less so because we know more about rivian already because they gave us Their last delivery numbers compared to lucid, where everybody's kind of like, what's up with lucid uh yeah, i mean speaking of what's up with lucid.

Let me text lucid right now: uh yeah, i have not heard a peep since i sent the money yeah. That always feels great here's, my mommy and then tumbleweed. It's like wait where, where did everyone go? Uh? Oh man bought highly on at 14, went up to 60. Now at six uh i mean i could drive a highly on one in january.

I don't know we'll see, it'll be interesting. Ah it sucks. This is i fee. I agree with you jolly, like can can shift technologies really go under three dollars? I mean look, i hate to say it, but that's what people thought at four dollars and twenty cents and it's what people thought it's seven dollars.

You know when we were over here like 650, this this folks. Just just so, you know, okay over. Where was it? I think it was here right here see when shift fell to six dollars and 40 cents in november of 2020. This the executives at shift ended up buying stock and the market still didn't care.

It's crazy, yeah i'll make a i'll make a model s review. I actually already have it filmed. I just need to edit it uh yeah, it's crazy. I do not believe that lucid is going to meet their 2021 deliveries.

I highly do not believe that, but look don't get me wrong. I hope they do. I mean i want them to succeed and i've been a big fan, big fan of lucid, i'm just not in them, so anyway, uh all right what else anything else kind of kind of a slow day. It's basically the the big headline of the day is small caps suck.

There's your headline for today. Let's do let's do one more look in the back end and see if there's there's any secret back here. Yeah btc has been headed trending back up in just the last 30 minutes. You don't have to wait now that long to get a model s plaid.

I think it's only a couple months i mean i had my reservations for like a year, but that's because i ordered it back on battery day battery days when i ordered the darn thing that was september of 2020 more than a year uh, i didn't think i'd Buy it, but then, when the time came close i'm like oh merry christmas to me. I i'm still in the honeymoon phase, though so it's dangerous, you know, like the honeymoon phase is like the first two weeks. You have a car you're, just like. Oh, i love it uh and it's it's not healthy, yeah apple closes at a record.

Warren urges crackdown on wall street. I mean like tell me something new silicon valley pushes into cars, testing amp detects man. That's not that fun. All right, yeah, we'll see when we get uh we'll we'll see when we get that small cap u-turn, uh you'll.

I hope you hear it here. First, i hope to deliver it. First, uh got ta sleep in for the first two weeks yeah. I would like what's gon na, what's gon na change in the next two weeks.

I don't know but we'll be here, monitoring it every day, so uh still think there are crypto opportunities. That's why i bought those calls on hut uh, but there are no guarantees. You know you could, you could buy calls on hut and then it could turn into a robin hood where it's just like wow, okay, dude, it's been it's been four weeks. We expected pain.

We expected paying the first two weeks of december because of the lockups, but it's like now. It's like a dead dog. It's like you got ta, go not another jam. Six, oh yeah! All right! I got ta go! Thank you! So much for being here.

Folks. I've seen the phone thing with tesla i'll believe it. When i see it all right.