Hey everyone me kevin here, so a lot of you might remember that i have been extremely bullish on lucid from the spac merger on i expressed my frustrations of lucid having its momentum swing, way up and then falling away down and potentially way over selling back to, Like 17 a share, and for probably four to five months, i was asked kevin. When is this stock ever going to go up? Am i just holding bags here thanks a lot kevin? What do i do and i kept saying folks just wait until deliveries start, because once deliveries start hype and momentum comes back and folks, that's what we have right now, deliveries have started, we have hype momentum and the stock has literally gone to the moon. It's up over 450 percent this year. It is way way way way up over 55 dollars per share and right now it feels like there's nothing holding it back because we're in the midst of an eevee super cycle.

But in this video i want to talk about something that a lot of us have forgotten, because we last talked about this on march, 2nd. Well, the ev market turned to crap in march in april in may and barely started recovering in july and so revisiting. This piece of information here, i think, is especially critical because of an announcement this week by some big silicon valley, tech company - and this is bullish for lucid now, i'm going to talk about my price trajectory for lucid in just a moment, but first, let's hit this Clip here, because this is really really important right after i mentioned that you should check out the program on building your wealth link down below stocks and psychology money get all my buy, sell alerts, there's suggestions for you, there is a black friday coupon and, of course, You can build your wealth through real estate. Investing property management, youtube videos being an agent property management; rental renovations.

All of that linked down below check those out. Okay, let's jump in over here. So this is going to look a little funny because you're gon na have two kevin's here uh, but that's just the way it is. You got old, kevin and uh whatever.

This is right here and uh. Let's go ahead and listen to about 15 seconds of this. Listen closely here to what peter rollinson says always connected with an ethernet gigabit ring super connected car, two terabytes of data on board storage super cloud connectivity. This is the perfect platform for any um um silicon valley, big company, to prove out its ad software.

I think okay, what is ad software autonomous driving software? What is a potential big silicon valley, along with peter rollinson's, nudge, nudge, wink, wink that he did there just replay it if you missed that nudge nudge, wink wink how about apple? Folks, literally this week, apple said: hey, we don't plan to have a full self-driving vehicle until 2025, but we might partner with another vehicle manufacturer beforehand. We might partner with another manufacturer between 2022 and 2023. Now they didn't exactly say why, but peter rollinson might have the answer here. Hey we've got the perfect stack where you might be able to test out your ad autonomous driving software.

If you're a big silicon valley company come on folks, it's either google, it's apple uh. Maybe maybe it's um qualcomm, but actually i don't or or nvidia, but let me see where's qualcomm uh headquarters. Let's see that oh they're, headquartered in san diego, that's interesting, did not know that so but anyway, that's in my opinion, pretty bullish doesn't really matter what company it is. It's very, very bullish for lucid by the way.

Nvidia is also headquartered above santa clara, so uh or above san jose in santa clara. So i don't know that it really matters which of these. It is maybe it's not even one of these, but you've got some pretty big options there and that was a pretty clear, nudge-nudge wink wink in my opinion. So to me, that's pretty bullish on lucid.

Imagine if lucid announced a partnership with with apple this stock would just go haywire. It would absolutely go bonkers. No guarantees, total speculation, obviously just putting pieces of the puzzle together here. But what do we know about price action here recently and is this a stock that we want to potentially fomo in now, because the upside is way higher? Well, look lucid right now is a 90 billion dollar valuation, it's somewhere around 111, the size of tesla and we've got, in my opinion, a few negative catalysts coming up that could potentially hurt the stock.

Now that does not mean i'm anti the stock. While there have been some frustrations with with how deliveries are being processed at the company, i've been a big fan of the stock. Now i traded a lot of my investment in the stock. I traded a lot with call options and i traded a lot with sold.

Puts but more importantly, what we want to look at here is: what do we actually think is going to happen upon negative catalysts? Let's talk about that by looking at the chart, so right now we're sitting at a 55-21. This is a company that projected to deliver around 520 vehicles here in 2021 uh and then potentially take off in 2022. In fact, what i'll do is i'll pull up my spreadsheet, where i compare uh lucid uh? Actually, i don't even know that i've revealed my lucid spreadsheet before so. Here's a treat for you uh, and i also talk about how i built do my fundamental analysis and all that in stocks and psychology, money seriously use that black friday coupon, because the price is just going to go up from there.

So initially we were expecting to deliver a thousand vehicles in 2021. We think that ramp's probably going to be closer to 520.. So i i think it's there's a big risk here. Uh downside miss risk, so i'm putting this here because this would be reported in january of 2022 right if we're expecting a potential uh partnership announcement by a company like apple or some other silicon valley, tech company sometime in 2022, then there's a good chance you're going To have a really big negative catalyst for lucid stock, potentially in january now they might kill it, but i don't think they will.

I think that they're going to substantially miss on deliveries, it's very, very important that they started delivering because nobody actually thought they would begin delivering vehicles. I had faith that they would deliver vehicles. I also had faith. The stock would go up once they started delivering vehicles.

I did not think it was going to momentum move as much as it did. I will tell you that and when it ran from like 22 to 30, i thought okay, cool. This is the beginning of the move of of deliver vehicles being delivered, and that's it. No, it ended up almost doubling from there right like 55, it's incredible, but anyway.

I do believe that that means right now we're really built not on fundamentals, we're built on fundamentals plus a lot of hype and that hype can get hurt on a deliveries miss. So if we end up with a deliveries, miss and let's say what, if we only deliver 420 vehicles right and that's less than even the revised 520 expected for this year - that's not going to be as ideal because what people are going to do. In my opinion, potentially in the q1 report, the earnings report is, they might take and extrapolate their production rate here, depending on what kind of guide loose it gives and if the guide, or which almost certainly will be, the production rate, are less than that. 20.

000 vehicle target for 2022, which 20 000 vehicles that's a little less than 2 000 per month 1666 vehicles, if they're on a slower pace than doing 1600 vehicles per month, which we substantially expect them to be. I mean think about it. If they're trying to get 500 out the rest of the year starting in september, when they first made that projection, that means september october november december, in four months, they got about a hundred vehicles out a month. They've got to somehow 16x their production realistically by q2.

At the latest of 2022, otherwise the stock market's gon na look and go whoa whoa wait a minute. You guys are ramping way way too slowly. This is not good. I think that is a potential massive downside risk for lucid.

Now, don't get me wrong. I think there are a lot of really cool upsides for lucid in the long term uh a lot of lucid, though valuation wise is going to come down to that value per vehicle. We know lucid is rushing to try to get to an under 80 000 a dollar vehicle. Let's say that they get to a 79 000 vehicle they're selling, their 130s they're 140 000 vehicles, 150, 169, 000, whatever they're selling vehicles in the spectrum.

Let's just go ahead and say: the average by 2025 is 80 000.. I still think this is very, very bullish here that they would get to an 80 000 dollar average sale per vehicle. But let's say they do end up delivering 200 000 vehicles by then. If, if they pull that off, throw in a little bit just a little less than three percent for leases here, that would get us to about 16.4 billion dollars of revenue if they had a 25 expense margin which is not as good as as tesla.

But this would still be very, very good. In fact, i'm going to adjust honestly i'm going to adjust this down and say that they have 80 in cost, which puts them a little bit closer to where neo even sits today, uh. So so that means they're spending. 80 percent of every dollar in the vehicle i'm actually producing the vehicle uh, and we throw some other things in here like interest taxes.

Whatever. Now we divide by the amount of shares outstanding, the company has which the company has uh like twice as many shares outstanding. As rivie and it's worth noting that and the price today is eighty dollars, let's say then at a hundred times, multiple in 2025. With these figures, lucid would be worth 32 dollars a share at 100 times multiple in 2025.

Well, wait a minute! It's like twice that right now, exactly so: let's, let's now adjust this a little bit, so we don't sound like a big old bear. Let's go back to that 75 expense ratio, which means 25 percent gross profit margin. Let's now assume they bump their average vehicle revenue to 90 000 and they still deliver 200 000 vehicles by 2025. at 100 times future earnings that puts them at about an 81 dollar stock.

So you could see how quickly the valuation can change based on that value per vehicle and their ramp rate. Everything about lucid's valuation comes down to that ramp rate. If that ramp rate beats lucid stock will do very well. If that ramp rate misses, it will do very poorly during those misses until it catches back up to pace.

So with that said, i personally believe the biggest and most challenging times for an automaker are your first years of ramping and then, when you start expanding to new factories, which we know there'll be a saudi arabia factory at some point here as well. Once we get this arizona facility to scale, so i don't want to sound like a lucid bear by saying that i think right now, at 55, 57, whatever it's it's kind of gone, a little nuts, which is fine. The stock market does that, but as an investor and lucid, you know, if you're an investor and lucid, i would just think to myself. Is it? Is it potentially okay to take some profits to sell some calls for q1 or whatever and uh? And if i get called out, oh well, if i end up selling a well if it runs to 80 you're gon na have to not feel bad about that in somo right.

But if we end up pulling back down to some of the support levels we have which these are long-term support levels, not necessarily recent support levels. A lot of these levels were drawn way back on our candlesticks, but if we end up drawing back down to say 37 or we draw back down to where we have multiple different supports between 29 and 30 or worst case scenario, we go back to levels like The channel that we used to have that 24 to 23 channel if we go to any of these levels here, it's going to be a lot more attractive of a company to invest in because at 36 dollars worst case scenario, if they only do three uh 200. 000 vehicles - hopefully they do at least that at 80 000 with an 80 expense ratio by 2025 at least your break, even you're, not losing in 2025 right and there's still that opium that hopefully propels it. If you can get it down here, i feel like you, you start getting a margin of safety.

Realistically, the real margin of safety is when you're around 23 24 a share, because this is where you could really go dirty. If you go with 80 000 per vehicle, you go with an 80 expense and we go with a just a miss. Here. We go with 150 000 vehicles, uh er we're gon na get a little bit closer.

See, look at that now, you're at 21 per share. Now, you're at much closer to that lower level and you're, really assuming some in my opinion worst case scenarios i mean if they can't in uh one two: three four full years get to 150 000 vehicles, which is somewhere around 12 000 vehicles a month 12 to 13, 000 vehicles a month, that's bad, and there should be plenty of writing on the wall before then that the company is just totally not on track. But i i don't know that loose. It's not going to be able to pull that off.

I'm optimistic, and i also think you're going to want to be around for that potential apple catalyst. It doesn't necessarily have to be apple, it could also be nvidia or something else. I think it's interesting and - and i think it's a reasonably bullish - i would not buy the stock at these values, though, because of this excitement, because even that excitement will wane once the announcement is made, but anyway, these are just some thoughts to think about. If you like, the way, i think about stocks, do consider checking out the programs on building your wealth link down below make sure you use that black friday coupon that does expire on the price goes up at 11 59 pm on friday.

So do it before you forget. I always know that feeling like oh yeah i'll, do it before then, but then you forget, and it's like, why didn't i just do it earlier now. I missed it anyway. Thank you so much for watching and we'll see in the next one bye you.