What's going on, guys? It's Ricky here with tput Solutions And today November 1st the Federal Reserve is going to announce their most recent uh rate decision. So there's a pretty high Market consensus that the Uh Federal Reserve is going to pause uh and we're going to catch the Market's live reaction I Really hope that you can sit back, relax, Um, enjoy this Market's reaction. I'm going to start sharing my screen in just a few seconds. Uh I Really hope that you can consider dropping at the up and if you haven't done so already.

uh, please make sure to subscribe as again I'd Love to keep you up to date with all these different economic reports and earning reports that are coming out this week. Let's go ahead and start sharing my screen so you guys can see exactly what it is that I'm looking at. Um right now. Uh, again.

Overall: NASDAQ Market is up about 7% What's up, What's up? Good morning? Uh, good afternoon, right? So it should be in about 12 minutes. Uh, 12 minutes. We should be able to see the market, Um, react to this. So let me go ahead and double check.

but it's at 2 p.m. eastern time. So 2 p.m. eastern time which should be right 12 minutes from now Am I Am I off.

All right. So it's going to be what time is it in the East Coast? Yeah, it's 149. It's 149 right now. which means in 11 minutes you guys had me concerned.

I Thought we went live way too early. Um, you guys can see the NASDAQ market right behind me Here we go. Yep, 149 10 minutes left, Right. We have the Federal Reserve website right here.

This is where it should be released. I Don't pay too much attention to this because at the end of it, it gets released. It's really how the markets digest the data, right? So uh, looking at the Fed rate monitor tool, let's just double check. Yep, according to the Federate Monal, there's 10 minutes left and there is a 98.3% probability that the Federal Reserve is going to pause.

That is what the market is expecting, right? Uh, there's a 1.7% probability according to the market consensus for the uh, Feder rate monitor tool that there, um, that there will be a rate hike. Now let me explain this very very easily. And it's very simple, right? If the Federal Reserve were to raise interest rates, what exactly does this mean? Super simple. When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, it makes it more expensive for people like you and I to borrow money.

And if it makes it more expensive for people like you and I to borrow money, we are encouraged or less incentivized to then borrow money, right? So then that tends to slow down the economy, right? Just like when interest rates are too high for mortgages, or just like when credit card interest rates are too high. The overall idea is when it becomes more expensive to borrow money, therefore, you're less incentivized to borrow money. So if the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, they're really just trying to slow down the economy. Now by pausing is they're not doing anything right.

They're just keeping it at the same current rate. And then they can cut interest rates. Which means that at that point, they make it less expensive to buy money. That would then encourage people to potentially want to spend more money, right? So if we're seeing a slow down in our economy and we want it to pick up, then something that we can do to incentivize, right our overall economy is we can lower interest rates, cut interest rates, and that should be able to encourage enough people, right? Uh, since it's a little bit more affordable to borrow money and spend more money keeping the you know economy healthy and healthy or um, strong and healthy Jesus Christ But it should be interesting because according to one of the most recent Uh Fed meetings that I saw where Jerome Pal spoke Jerome Pal's the head of the Federal Reserve For those who are a little bit newer to this, um I Heard him say uh, that 12 out of seven members of the Federal Reserve said that by the end of 2023 that they wanted at least one more quarter bases rate hike.

So it's going to be interesting to hear what he says today. You guys are all aware. he's speaking today, right? You guys are all aware of that. He speaks 30 minutes after the report comes out.

So I'll leave it up to you guys I can just go live for the Uh for the actual report and we can catch the Market's reaction. Um, or I can stay live for it would be an hour at that point because it he. he speaks 30 minutes after and he speaks for about 30 minutes to 45 minutes. So I'll leave it up to you guys if this video gets over a th000 likes.

uh I'll stay live until he begins to speak. and if not, then I totally respect that. Uh, we'll just move. Move on with our day.

Okay, all right here we go. We got eight minutes. We got NASDAQ Market pushing up right now I have it on the 5 minute time frame. but here we go switching it on over to the 1 minute.

Looks like there's a common resistance here right around 354 and a common support here right around 350 320. So just the heads up. So I can't see how many likes I have right now so you guys just let me know once we're getting a little bit closer. Okay, can I get a show of hands? Um, how many of you are joining me from my Lpp team right? So let me know in the live chat Again, to participate in the live chat, you do have to be subscribed to the YouTube channel, so if you want to ask any questions and just engage in the live chat again, you can just partake in that live um, live chat by being a part of Lpp.

So all right there we go. Lpp Gang I Appreciate that. Happy to have you guys here. So again, friendly reminder: I Do trade live every morning exclusively for my with my Lpp team.

It's the only thing that I offer I offer nothing else and it just gets you gives you access. I Host a live stream like this but it's private and it's only for the Lppb team. Uh, and I do this every day right at Market Open for about 30 minutes to an hour and you get to see every entry, every exit, every you know, cut losses, every take. profit.

Uh, that? I take during that live stream. So it's a really cool experience, especially if you're a beginner and you're trying to figure this all out. Um, if you haven't checked it out already, it's the second link in the description down below. Uh, and we're running our biggest sale right now, which won't get better than that.

So it's 175 off. So all right, 700 likes already? Nice? All right. appreciate that. Let's see if we can hit the thousand and then we'll carry on with that live stream.

Any student discounts for Lpp? Um, the biggest I mean student discount that we normally offer is 150 off? Uh, the discount and sale that we're offering right now is $175 off. So it's not going to get better than that. So it's the second link in the description down below. Again, don't feel like you have to join.

It's not about that. Um, but if you're really trying to figure this out and you would and you learn better by watching someone else do, um, And then you also get access to the A2Z video Lesson Library Um, then again, I I have it available for you, right? It's a one-time payment, lifetime access. You'll get access to it every day and all we ever ask you to do is to show up with a good you know attitude and try to be useful for yourself and useful to other people, right? Because as you're trying to learn, other people are trying to learn as well and that's all we ever ask of you. Okay, it looks like NASDAQ Market is pulling on back.

The NASDAQ Market as of right now is up about uh, 75% as you could see right on over here. So uh, and remember, we have Apple stock reporting earnings tomorrow, right? So that's going to be quite fun to see. All right, We have four minutes left until the Fomc rate decision is announced. Let's run a quick poll.

Let's run a quick poll and I want to see your guys is so what do you think the FED will do again? There's a very high probability according to Market consensus that they're going to pause, but I'd love to hear your input right? Um, so hike means raise interest rates. Uh, pause means nothing, right? So I'm going to add another option and then I'm going to put cut. So which means lower interest rates. All right, the pull should be open and I'll close it out right before so you guys have three minutes to partake in that Diego Choa of course man! super happy to have you here.

So I don't know if you guys see that. Diego Chapa says thank you again for the cash prize uh Diego Chappa won our weekend giveaway uh, that was for the suron and he ended up just wanting the money instead. So we sent him on over $2,000 and Diego remind me if I'm wrong. but I think you ordered a mystery box right? and you also got entered for the M4 giveaway.

So he he won $2,000 he got a mystery box which means that he got ,000 entries for the M4 giveaway. So I love that and he's part of Lpp. So I've I've obviously you want to see people that you know, uh, support you win and stuff like that. So obviously anyone that enters the giveaway, we're very grateful for it.

But um, happy to see that you're also watching our content and stuff like that. So really do appreciate that. Diego All right here we go. We got two minutes left.

One thing. I Just want to leave you guys with this. Uh, before the report comes out at the end of the day like you guys do. Whatever it is that you want, your adults, you know you, you.

you should be able to hold yourself accountable I Just want to remind you for our beginners out there. uh, these Fomc rate decisions create a lot of volatility and my focus is you know you're focused on your profit I'm focused on your risk management. Uh, I just want to make sure that you don't have an open position if you cannot tolerate loss. So it's just a reminder.

Um, there's a lot of volatility. There could be quick changes of Direction and if you have an open position, all power to you, right? I mean you're choosing to take the risk, uh, at what you manage, it is on you, right? So for me I'm choosing to say cash I'm waiting for the market to react and then I want to make a more informed decision if I see there to be more of a clear Direction Uh, that's just the way that I choose to trade I know it's boring. Uh, but I trade with enough money that I just I don't want to tolerate that kind of risk right? That kind of volatility. So just being open with you guys and um, hope it makes sense.

All right here we go. We have 30 seconds left and this is going to be be the November Fomc rate decision and again there is a 98% probability that the Federal Reserve is going to pause so we shall see. All righty team! Wish you guys nothing but the best! Let's do the countdown: 10 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 and looks like we're moving up. Let's see if this is a fake out.

We've seen some fake outs before, right? especially with earnings, but it doesn't have to be. It could come in as expected. So Market is reacting in a very positive way. We just hit 1% for the first time today.

Oh, I'm sorry, no we didn't We've been beyond that. We're lacking progress. It's a pause. Let's double check.

Here we go. I'm going to provide you guys with the website cuz I Want you guys all to have access to it? It looks like NASDAQ Market is still pushing up there right? Want you guys to be able to do your own due diligence I Never want you to be just dependent on me. but here it goes. Still testing previous highs up 1% on the day.

Still really cool to see. We got Tqqq up 3% I Want to see if we show continuous signs of progress? Wouldn't be much of a surprise as the Market's been extremely bullish today, right? holding above the EMA going back to retest. but let's see if it's all a fake Out Imagine it just all of a sudden begins to dump. Market's been crazy, right? This is why again, you need to be quick with your entries and quick with your exits and know when to walk away.

With great volatility comes great responsibility. We say this all the time if you're part of our Lpp team. I Sent them a message right before this live stream, making them all aware of what's to come. Okay, and yeah, it looks like it is a pause.

The Federal Reserve yep, stayed at the Uh quarter to half which means that they paused. So let's go ahead and refresh this. Okay, so I sent you guys the link for this official Federal Reserve.gov uh press release and then this is where o What did we say? What did we say? What did we say? You cannot be surprised. and even for people that are trying to short right now, there's so much volatility right now.

When there's all this consolidation, all this choppiness, it's not about being right or wrong, it's just about cashing out right? Like making your money and that's it. It's nothing more than that, right? Let's not make it emotional. Let's not make it personal. Get in, get out, make your money, walk away.

Look at that. Can't be surprised, right? The the only people that are complaining and the only people that are punching air are those that did not prepare right. It was an obvious previous resistance level. You cannot be surprised.

it's already. it was up 3% We're going back to retest. Let's see if it has enough power to push up to 3380. Okay, yeah, so they did not raise.

They just maintained. which means that that's a pause. So and it was released November 1st. So you can see that it was four today.

Sweet. Do you guys ever? This might just be me. Obviously. I do this every day, but someone had to type this up right? You guys ever just wonder if like someone that's like typing this out and stuff like that and then it has to go through a number of people.

They have to proofread it. all that stuff. There's like a handful of people that are like wow, You know, billions of dollars, trillions of dollars. Are you know going to be moving based off of this release? these words that I'm typing.

You guys ever think like that, No, you're just like someone. Someone's like typing this out and then it goes through people pretty crazy, huh? Now we wait for Pal. What are we at right now for likes? I I'll leave it up to that. Oh, we're only at 853 likes.

Oh, we didn't hit it guys. I Just want to let you guys know that in 26 minutes Jerome Pal is going to be speaking. uh, it's going to be a live stream and if you want me to host it now, I'm going to be asking for 1,500 likes. So, 1500 likes now that we got to 11:00 a.m.

Um, let's see how many I think There's over 3,000 of you guys here so shouldn't be too difficult again. I Love hosting these live streams for you guys I Just want to make sure that again I Continue to provide as much value as I can. and um, of course we'd appreciate it if you can consider subscri scribing so we can do our part in keeping you up to date with the different economic and earning reports. So hopefully that's not too much to ask.

My mystery box came in I Like that. Congrats! Jose All right, what are we at? Okay, nearly at the, 1500. A little shy, but there we go. Oh don't worry, uh, Finz is still not up today.

Surprise surprise. Um, five minute time frame. Just a little. you know for those that are a little bit newer.

So I I'll stay live. Um, we should be able to get the link for uh Jerome pal today and um I'll find it. But one of the things that we talk about pretty often are time frames, right? So very popular time frame is the one minute time frame or every candle represents one minute of time. But sometimes you know there's all these quick changes of Direction And who struggles with overtrading? Can I get a show of hands I struggle with it too, right? That's why one of my healthy habits that I was working on for the month of October Uh, was working on walking away early, right? feeling more comfortable doing that? So who and feel free to show your hands? Who struggles with overtrading? Uh, One thing you know that has assisted in me trying to be a little bit more disciplined is, uh, looking at the five minute time frame going from the one minute to the 5 minute.

Even that small change Some people like the 10 minute. some people like the 15 minute if they're a little bit more on the conservative side. But if you enter a lot of impulsive trades on the one minute, then just check it out. Test it out.

like test it out yourself, right? See if you see more value in the 5 minute. right? Kind of slows things down, which I think is very useful when it comes down to train. You also have to give it more time so you can't be trading as early right at Market open. Uh.

but when you give something more time, you kind of allow it to paint its picture for the day, right? Just like we talked about in October Uh, and I Feel like on this 5 minute it's very easy to see that. Wow. You know we're above the moving average far above. We're validating the EMA as a support so there's been a couple times that we test it, but it still holds above and it's very easy to see.

Okay, you know, today NASDAQ is bullish. rightfully so. Now, if we break below this and then begin to show progress on of lower lows and lower highs, then at that point it's like, okay, well, at least at that point you're like on the 5 minute we broke below, there's progress. On the downside, that's a break of pattern.

You know. maybe I can enter a short position. That's kind of what I've been waiting for to see. If we break below, then I can justify entering.

You know, a small short position. Having some fun during the F1c rate decision. If we began to sell off, um, Market just opened up two overbought for my taste and that that was just the case there. So we're just getting a lot of consolidation right now.

Oh, look at that big push right now on Tqqq trying to bounce off of that moving average and that EMA chop City That's a good way to put it. Yeah, right at Market open. That's all We were seeing. So much consolidation here, right? And then we finally began to take off about 45 minutes after the market opened.

But then that was the biggest run for the day. This was the biggest run and then we peaked and then we kind of just Consolidated for the rest of the day. So you guys, do you guys ever look at that, um, you know how long into the market? So this would put it at 10:30 at 10:30 which would be 1 hour after the market opened, one hour after the market open. NASDAQ has not shown any signs of progress.

Do you guys see that? do you? I mean it's not super necessary, but it's important to not. now. Looking back be like wow, you know I've carried an open position this entire time, but this open position has just been trading sideways. It hasn't made me any more money right? and I think that's a good way to put you know to look at it of like okay then why do I even have it open if there's no signs of continuous progress right? what's going on? Magda thanks for tuning in I Closed my position as soon as I realized it was in the consolidation phase.

I'm happy to hear and the reason why is it's not that like you're right or wrong, right? cuz all of a sudden if this thing begins to take off it's you shouldn't be like oh wow I'm an idiot right? like I Sold and it took off. First off, no one can predict the future. Let's it's easy when when it's hard when it happens because I would get Fomo as well and I've been doing this for a very long time but when it really comes down to it, remember every action you take is an effort to hopefully be building healthy habits and the action of oh okay, let me close out this position because there's no signs of progress. To me, that is a healthy habit because you're looking out for yourself because if there is no signs of progress, then why carry that open position that's open to risk, right? And if you see that conditions are becoming less favorable, then you're doing your job to be proactive and to be calculated and you're looking out for your downside risk.

So yeah, maybe you didn't make money if all of a sudden it began to take off. But you also maybe didn't lose as much as you could have if it did begin to sell off. And that's what's important. Building healthy habits regardless of the outcome, right? All right.

Showing signs of a support once again again, just so much choppiness. Uh, one thing that I do want to remind you is that when Jerome Pal does begin to speak, There is almost a more significant move. Like he has this script that he always always reads off of of. uh for like the first 2 to 3 minutes, right? It's like he pretty much just reads what we have in front of us.

right? this? Um, but he has. He has a script that's worded a little bit different, but he says the same thing over and over again. Then they'll there's reporters there from a bunch of different news outlets, um, that try to ask him questions, right? We have some of our favorite people there that ask him questions. Uh, our live chat's hilarious about that.

Um, but depending on his tone and it sounds so freaking weird because he does a really good job. Like dude, this guy's a pro, right? he's He's not going to just spill the beans on something that he shouldn't be spilling the beans on, but it's about his tone and that's what the market tries to digest. Is he hawkish? Which means would he consider raising more interest rates? or is he doish right? And he? and that's what they try to get out of him because at the end of the day they're trying to get something where they can build a story off of and then the markets is trying to understand and digest the tone of the Federal Reserve Make sense he's a poker player. Yeah, maybe we'll see if he's wearing his little Rolex Today Pow live stream in 14 minutes.

That is correct. Again, all we ask you to do is drop a thumbs up, make sure you're subscribed to the channel, and again, we'll do our part in keeping you up to date. Um I Wanted to ask you guys very very quickly how many of you guys guys have entered our Um M4 giveaway either yesterday or today. The reason why is that if you purchased anything I don't even know if you guys need this, you get entered automatically.

You don't have to know, but if you purchased anything from our site of Shop Techbuds, it's also the fourth Link in the description down below if you purchased anything yesterday which is October 31st or if you purchase anything right now up until midnight tonight. So today you will automatically be entered for the M4 giveaway. But also, we have a small giveaway that ends tonight and the Winner's going to be selected tomorrow. And we're going to be paying your rent or your mortgage right? So if you have a mortgage up to a certain dollar amount, we're going to be paying your rent up to a certain dollar amount.

But I Thought it would be pretty cool right? because it was the end of the month yesterday and it's the start of the new month rent is due and my team and I were kind of thinking of like hey, what's like something unique that we can do I feel like it would be a really nice gesture for someone, right? They purchased something from our site, they're already getting entered for the M4 giveaway, but on top of that, it's kind of like, you know, we sprinkle some like just some good sauce. It's it's it's cool to um, you know, be in a position where uh, we can offer that for someone So very excited to be able to announce the winner. Uh, for that, um, two-day giveaway tomorrow. Okay, so again, if you want want to check that out, that's at Shop Techbuds Docomo to enter that M4 giveaway and the rent giveaway that will automatically get you entered if you literally purchase anything.

So you can purchase a big item and get a lot of entries. or you can purchase a small item and still get entered. Um for both giveaways. So the vix is popping.

The vix popping normally is not a good thing. Uh, that's the consider the fear Index right? So volatility. More volatility being. uh, more fear being injected so we still have 15 minutes left.

Look at that. We're showing some progress on the downside. we're not making lows for the day, but we're making some progress on the downside. testing that same support.

There it goes. Nice bounce. looks like we're testing EMA and the moving average. Do you see how they're crossing right now? Let's see if we are We able to break above? It looks like it's getting rejected right now.

and there it goes. It looks like we just had someone I Don't know if you're from this live stream, but we have Richard that just entered the M4 giveaway and the pay my rent giveaway. So Richard appreciate it. We'll see if you win tomorrow for all right testing that moving average.

We have 11 minutes left when is the Fomc meeting? So it's the Fomc rate decision today which was already announced 20 minutes ago. Uh, we just talked about it. They paused. but it's the uh Drome Pal speaks in 10 minutes.

So just the heads up on that. I See Jose just posted me on Instagram appreciate you tagging me, man. be happy to repost you. Congrats on getting the mystery box and the 1,000 entries.

Okay, all right, looks like QQQ is showing signs of progress above the moving average. Let's see if we get a nice little run up to previous highs of 33.81 right before Jerome Pal speaks and there it goes. We just had someone else enter the M4 giveaway and the pay my rent and they purchased a Wall Street sh. Yep, you can literally purchase anything right? Doesn't have to be BMW related.

So if you're going to buy something something, make sure it's something that you're actually going to wear. We have motivational te's trading mouse pads, everything that you see that we have here, trading plaques, everything. it all gets you entered. So um and this is is it car cares? sorry that I can't pronounce your name.

All right. Still a bunch of consolidation. There it goes. We had just had two more people enter the giveway.

Give me one second. I'm trying to get the here we go all right I got it There it goes. QQQ still showing signs of progress. Uh, for those that entered the M4 G giveaway.

so I see that Dan just entered and we got Daniel that just entered. So um, appreciate you guys entering and remember you're automatically being entered for both giveaways, the pay my rent and also of course the main one the M4 and it all ends in 30 days for the M4. So I think 34 days to be exact. 33 days.

All right. So we have six minutes left. Sorry for the choppy market today guys. What's going on? Ju, what's up, What's up? All right There we go.

Just had two more people enter I Want to see what you guys are purchasing? You guys better be purchasing stuff that you're actually going to wear. There it goes. Day Trader Mouse pad. You know that you'll actually use that I like that and then Angel just entered, you got a motivated hat I Like that Ricky is the best teacher.

Appreciate that Elite Happy to have you as a part of the team. All right. I Like one of the articles that one of our members just shared in our Discord Uh, and it's that interest that the Federal Reserve is holding interest rate at one of the highest levels since 2001. I Think the wording right of with these articles.

they're I mean they're very creative. Uh, on how they can like twist, twist it to make anything sound bad because if you really think about it I mean are they you know, raising interest interest rates? or did they raise interest rates? No right. But did they cut it? No, of course, not right. according to the Federal Reserve they at some point still think that the economy is hot enough.

Where based off of what Dron Pal said I wonder if he's going to talk about it today? Um where he stated that you know a majority of the members of the Federal Reserve said that they would expect at least one more or would be in favor of one more rate hike by the end of 2023. So we'll see we stay motivated. I Like that angel? oh it's you I just saw your name match. All right we had.

uh Randy Also, enter the uh giveaway and you got 1,000 entries for entering with that mystery box I Like that and we have Theo that picked up a simple Mt nice I like it here it goes. getting rejected. All right. So we have three, oh, three minutes left until Jerome Pal begins to speak.

He's not speaking out right Y No, yeah. okay. going right back up to previous resistance levels. Uh, do you have any expectation for uh, the market based off of today's reaction, um, the only thing I can think of right? it's the idea is going with the flow.

Market's been very bullish. It's trying. been trying to find any reason to be bullish. So if I see this and it literally did not pull back or break its pattern, it did pull back right.

It pulled back here. Uh, but it it did not break its pattern for the entire session, right? So my would be I mean FC When Jerome Pal speaks, things are very volatile, but it it looks like to me as of right now. the way and again you guys can share your thoughts as well in the live chat. I See this as the Market's trying to find any reason to continue to go up right.

It wants to hold, it wants to continue to show signs of progress and that's just where it's at right now. So um, remember, like even if let's say that like, like me, right? I'm not in Tqqq I don't have an open position if the market doesn't pull on back I'm probably not going to enter and that's okay, right? Like, we don't have to take a trade today and that's just the friendly reminder of like. especially for those that are under the PDT rule, right? If you're trading with under 25k and you have a margin account, then maybe you should be a little bit more careful with how much you choose to trade with. So all right, Uh, we have less than.

yep, we have about one minute left until Jerome Pal begins to speak. so sit back relax. I Hope that it earn your thumbs up. Make sure you subscribe to the channel again, turn on those post notifications and we're going to be watching Jerome Pal as he answers questions and gives kind of like his answers.

Uh, for some of the questions that the, um, what would we call them just um I Guess just reporters right? reporters for different news outlets. So we'll see if some of our favorite reporters are there. How long are these meetings? Normally for 30 minutes to 45? But remember, uh, things begin to kind of get uh within first 15 to 20 minutes. I Mean that's when most of the stuff happens and then after he closes it off it either like just finishes off with like a strong rally and you know it picks its side for the day.

Um, but yeah, I mean let's let's have fun All right? I'm going to put my microphone over here so you guys can hear him big. JP All right, wish you guys the best of luck. Good afternoon, Everyone welcome my colleagues and I remain squarely focused on our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices. For the American people, we understand the hardship that high inflation is causing and we remain strongly committed to Bringing inflation.

back down to our 2% goal. Price stability is the responsib ility of the Federal Reserve Without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone in particular. Without price stability, we will not achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all. Since early last year, the Fomc has significantly tightened The Stance of monetary policy.

We have raised our policy interest rate by 5 and a quarter percentage points and have continued to reduce our Securities Holdings at a Brisk Pace The Stance of policy is is restrictive, meaning that tight policy is putting downward pressure on economic activity and inflation, and the full effects of our tightening have yet to be felt. Today, we decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged and to continue to reduce our Securities Holdings Given how far we have come along with the uncertainties and risks we Face The committee is proceeding carefully. We will make decisions about the extent of additional policy firming and how long policy will remain restrictive based on the totality of the incoming data, the evolving Outlook, and the balance of risks. I'll have more to say about monetary policy.

After briefly reviewing economic developments, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a strong pace and well above earlier expectations. In the third quarter, Real GDP is estimated to have risen an outsized annual rate of 4.9% boosted by a surge in consumer spending after picking up somewhat over the summer, activity in the housing sector has flattened out and remains well below levels of a year ago, largely reflecting higher mortgage rates. Higher interest rates also appear to be weighing on business fixed investment. The labor market remains tight, but supply and demand conditions continue to come into better balance.

Over the past three months, payroll job gains averaged 266,000 jobs per per month, a strong Pace that is nevertheless below that seen earlier in the year. The unemployment rate remains low at 3.8% Strong job creation has been accompanied by an increase in the supply of workers. The labor force participation rate has moved up since late last year, particularly for individuals aged 25 to 54 years, and immigration has rebounded to pre-pandemic levels. Nominal wage growth has has shown some signs of easing and job vacancies have declined so far this year.

Although although the jobs to Workers Gap has narrowed, labor demand still exceeds the supply of available workers, inflation remains well above our longer run goal of 2% Total Pce Prices rose 3.4% over the 12 months, ending in September. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, Core Pce Prices rose 3.7% New highs for the day 1.15 Inflation has moderated since the middle of last year, and readings over the summer were quite favorable. But a few months of good data are only the beginning of what it will take to build confidence that inflation is moving down sustainably toward our goal. The process of getting inflation sustainably down to 2% has a long way to go.

Despite elevated inflation, longer term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored, as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, as well as measures from financial markets Big Push: The Fed's monetary policy actions are: Guided. By our mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices For the American people, my colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship as it erods purchasing power, especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of Essentials like food, housing, and transportation. We are highly attentive to the risks that high inflation poses to both sides of our mandate, and we are strongly committed to returning inflation to our 2% objective. As I noted earlier, since early last year, we have raised our policy rate by 5 and a quar percentage points, and we have decreased our Securities Holdings by more than $1 trillion.

Our restrictive stance of monetary policy is putting downward pressure on economic activity and inflation. The committee decided at today's meeting to maintain the target range for the Federal funds rate at 5 and a quar to 5 a half% and to continue the process of significantly reducing our Securities Holdings. We are committed to achieving a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation sustainably down to 2% over time, and to keeping Po policy restrictive Conf: that inflation is on a path to that objective. We are attentive to recent data showing the resilience of economic growth and demand for labor wow, evidence of growth persistently above potential or that tightness in the labor market is no longer easing could put further progress on inflation at risk and could warrant further tightening of monetary policy.

Financial Conditions have tightened significantly in recent months, driven by higher longer term bond yields, among other factors Because persistent changes in financial condition s can have implications for the path of monetary policy, we monitor Financial developments closely. In light of the uncertainties and risks and how far we have come. The committee is proceeding carefully. We will continue to make our decisions, meeting by meeting based on the totality of the incoming data and their implications for the Outlook and for economic activity and inflation as well as the balance of risks.

In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appro rate to return inflation to 2% over time, the committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. We remain committed to Bringing inflation back down to our 2% goal and to keeping longer term inflation expectations well anchored. Reducing inflation is likely to require a period of below potential growth and some soft of labor market conditions. Restoring price stability is essential to set the stage for achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the longer run.

To conclude, we understand that our actions affect communities, families and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public. Mission We at the FED will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals. Thank you and I look forward to your questions.

Sen Howard Howard SCH with reers Uh thank you uh chair pal for doing this. Uh to what you referenced the rise in long-term bond Yelds to what degree did that suppl action by the FED at this meeting? Thanks for your question. So um, I'll talk about B but I want to take a second and just sort of set the broader context in which we're We're looking at that. So if if you look at the situation, let's look at the economy first.

Inflation has been coming down, but it's still running well above our 2% Target The labor market has been rebalancing, but it's still very tight by many measures. GDP Growth has been strong, although many forecasters are forecasting and they have been forecasting that it will slow. As for the committee, we are committed to achieving a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2% over time. And we're not confident yet that we have achieved such a stance.

So that is the broader context in into which this the strong economy and all the things I said. That's the context in which we're looking at this question. wow of race. So um, obviously we're monitoring.

We're attentive to the increase in longer term yields, and which have contributed to a tightening of broader Financial conditions since the summer. As I mentioned, persistent changes in broader Financial conditions can have implications for the path of monetary policy. in this case, the title Financial conditions we're seeing from higher long-term term rates, but also from other sources like the stronger dollar and and lower Equity prices could matter for future rate decisions as long as two two conditions are satisfied. The first is that the tighter conditions would need to be persistent and uh that is something that remains to be seen.

um but that's critical. Where're you know things are fluctuating back and forth. That's not what we're looking for with financial conditions, we're looking for persistent changes that are material. The second thing is that that that the the longer term rates that have moved up they can't simply be a reflection of of expected policy moves from us that we would then that if we didn't follow through on them then then then the rates would come back down.

So the and I would say on that it does not appear that an expectation of higher near-term policy rates is causing the increase in longer term rates. So um in the meantime though uh perhaps the most important thing is that these higher treasury yields are showing through to higher borrowing costs for hous households and businesses and those higher costs are going to weigh on economic activity to the extent this tightening persists. And you know the the Mind's Eye goes to the 8% near 8% uh mortgage rate which which could have you know pretty significant effect on housing So that's how I would answer your question just as a quick follow. And to be clear on this um in your opening statement and just now you seem to imply that you are not yet confident that Financial conditions are restrictive enough to to finish the fight.

Is that true? Yes, that's exactly right. Um, you know to say it a different way. We haven't made any decisions about about future meetings. Um, we have not made the determination.

Uh, and we're not I will say that we're not confident this time that we've reached such a stance. We're not confident that we haven't We're not confident that we have and that's that is is the way we're going to be going into these future meetings is to be. You know, just determining the extent of any additional further policy uh, tightening that that may be appropriate to return inflation at 2% over time here. I'm going to check on my daughter real quick.

Hi CH Pal, thank you so much for taking our questions I Wonder you know if you don't raise interest rates in December Would the presumption be that at that point that we should expect that rates are at their Peak or is there a possibility of restarting rate increases next year? and are there any costs to taking a more extended pause? So um, let me start by saying we haven't made a decision about September You're asking hypothetical there. but but we're going into this summer meeting. we'll get as you know, two more inflation readings, two more uh, labor market readings, some data on uh on economic activity uh, and so we'll be taking and also the broader situation, the broader Financial conditions situation, and the broader World situation. We'll be looking at all those things as we make a decision in December We haven't made that decision I Would say though that that uh, the idea that if you the idea that you wouldn't would be difficult to to raise again after stopping for a meeting or two is just not right.

I mean the committee will always do what it what it thinks is appropriate at the time and again we haven't made any decisions about at all about thism we didn't even we didn't talk about making a decision in December today. Really, it was a decision for this meeting and and understanding broader things. Nick Timos of the Wall Street Journal Chair Po Did the FED staff put a recession back into the Baseline forecast? uh in the materials for today's meeting. And how much does this tightening and financial conditions substitute for rate hikes? If the tightening is persistent, you had said it was worth maybe a corter point when we had the bank failures in the spring.

What is it here On something that's presumably more straightforward and more familiar to simulate? So I guess uh I Don't want to answer your question about the Um about the recession but the answer is no I think I have to answer it since we since we did publicly say in the minutes you'll you'll know anyway in the minutes the staff did not put our our session back in. I mean it would be hard to see how you would do that if you look at the Um, look at the activity we've seen recently which is not really indicative of a recession in the near term. In terms of um, how to think about translation into raid Hikes I think it's it's just too early to be doing that and the main reason is we just don't know how persistent this will be. You can see how volatile it is, different kinds of news will affect the level of rates and I think any kind of an estimate that was you know precise would hang out there and have a great chance of looking wrong very quickly.

So I think what we can say is that Financial conditions have have clearly tightened and you can see that in the rates that that consumers and house households and businesses are paying now and over time that will have an effect. We just don't know how persistent it's going to be and and it's tough to try to translate that you know way that I'd be comfortable communicating into how many rate hikes that is if I could follow I Guess what makes you confident that Ti What Makes You confident that tighter Financial conditions will slow above Trend growth with 500 basis points of rate hikes QT and a minor banking crisis have not thus far. well I just that that's U Uh, you know the way our policy works is and sometimes it works with lags of course which can be long and variable But Ultimately, if you if you raise the the you know raise interest rates, you do see uh, the those effects and you see those effects in the economy. Now you see what's happening in the housing market.

You're seeing that now you you'll see uh if you look at surveys of people, it's not a good time. They think to buy durable goods of various kinds because rates are so high now. I Mentioned again we're we're getting reports from housing that the effects of this of this could be quite significant. but you're right, the this is been a resilient economy and it's I think been surprising in its resilience and there are there number of possible reasons why that may be.

Um, our job is to is to is to achieve maximum employment and price stability and so we take the economy as it comes. it has been resilient. Uh, so we just uh, we take it as it isby thank you Kobe Smith With the financial Times in terms of the thresholds that you've laid out, um of what could warrant further tightening um the additional evidence of persistently above Trend growth or some kind of reversal in the recent easing of Labor Market tightness that seems to suggest something more powerful than just one more quarter point rate hike would be necessary. And I'm just curious if if that's how the the committee sees it so we've identified those factors.

Those those are not me to be the only factors or a specific test that we're going to be applying with with some metrics behind it. Really, we're going to be looking at the broader picture and you know what's happening. With our progress to toward the 2% inflation goal Is the labor market continuing to broadly cool off and achieve a better balance? We be looking at that. You know growth.

We look at growth in so far as it as as implications for our two mandate goals. We look at that and we look at broader Financial conditions. So we'll be looking at all of those things as we reach a judgment. Uh, you know whether we need to further tighten policy and if we do reach that judgment, then we will further tighten policy.

Okay, and and just in terms of the tightening of financial conditions, If that is having some kind of offsetting, um, effect in terms of the need to potentially again raise rates, what then is the potential impact on the trajectory of of Rate Cuts Could we see those maybe pulled forward or have to see um, more than than what the September SCP indicated? So it's it's The fact is, the committee is not thinking about rate Cuts right now at all. We're not talking about rate Cuts We're still very focused on the first question. Which is, have we have we achieved a stance of monetary policy that's sufficiently restrictive to bring bring inflation down to 2% over time. Sustainably, that is the question We're focusing on the next question, as you know will be for how long will we remain restrictive? What policy remain restrictive And what we said there is that we'll keep policy restrictive until we're confident that inflation is is on a sustainable path down to 2% That'll be the next question.

But honestly, right now we're really tightly focused on the first question. The question of rates Cuts just just doesn't come up because I think it the first. It's so important to get that first question you know is as close to right as you can Steve Lean CNBC Mr Chairman I Guess I Had assume that there was a tightening bias in the committee. You say in the statement you're looking to assess the appropriate stance of monetary policy.

Uh, the extent to which uh, you may you may need to hike Additionally You You didn't say earlier that you were sufficiently restrictive. There were forecast for two rate hikes among most members of the committee, But then you just said that you know we're we don't We haven't made a determination. Would you say the bias right now is neutral, that there is no disposition to hike again, and that the committee largely has moved off of this forecast for two hikes, one additional hike, one addition no I I Wouldn't say that at all. I would say I mean the language you know looking at it here.

Wow. Uh. In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation 2% over time, that's the question. Ask.

So is it right to think of that as a a hiking bias is still in the committee here. We haven't used that term, but it's fair to say that's the question we're asking is, should we hike more it's not. it's not, you know, and that that is the question. And you're right that in September we wrote down one additional raid hike.

Market's not going to like that. You know we'll write down another forecast. As you know in December Chris Uh, thank you Chris Rugaber at Associated Press Um, Well, since the last meeting, the Auto Workers strike has finished. Uh.

oil prices have leveled off. Uh. And yet on the other hand, you have the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas. How do you see all those factors taken together affecting the economy going forward? How are you thinking about those? Um, so there are significant issues out there.

As you, as you point out, um, Global Uh, Geopolitical tensions are certainly elevated and that goes for the war in Ukraine It goes for the war between Ezra and Hamas. No progress. We're monitoring that. our job is to monitor those things for their economic implications.

Looks like it's going to try to bounce. So the Eaw strike as you point out is is um appears to be coming to an end. Oil prices have flattened out. They haven't gone down, but I guess they going down a little bit from their earlier Peak um another one is the the possibility of government shutdown.

We don't know about that one so there's plenty of of risk out there. Um, but I I would go back to the you know the bigger picture for from our standpoint is is got a very strong economy, strong labor market, making progress on the labor market, making progress on inflation, and um, we're very focused on getting confident that we have achieved a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive. that's really our Focus Great and just one quick thing you uh, last month had gone to York Pennsylvania where you talked to a lot of or yeah, last month where you talked to a lot of small business owners just curious what sentiments did you hear from them or what did you picked up on and what would you? Was there anything that surprised you the most in terms of what they talked about I wouldn't say I was terribly surprised I was I was very impressed by Uh York as a town with a real strategy and I would say it's it's very impressive what the people there uh have have put together uh in the face of you know some difficult longer run Trends about offshoring of manufacturing and that kind of thing they've they've done a great job as a as a city I think you know what you hear and it's is consistent there which is people are really suffering under high inflation. you were there.

We talked to some people who you know are feeling that in their businesses and other people who are feeling it in their home lives as well. You know it's it's painful for people, particularly people who you know who don't have a lot of extra Financial Resources who are spending most of their incoming uh you know, income on uh the essentials of life. So we know that that that wasn't new but that did come through very clearly. uh in in in the conversations we had in New York and you know I I walked away from that even you know I mean just thinking that that we really the the best thing we can do for the US is to restore price stability.

Uh, fully restore price stability and not fail in that task and do it as quickly as possible. but but also with the least damage we we canel hi chair pal Rachel Seagull from The Washington Post Thanks for taking our questions. You've spoken before about the pain that would likely be coming for the economy in order to get inflation down. but since the economy has not responded to rate hikes in ways that would normally be expected, have you changed your views on that at all, on how necessary or inevitable that kind of pain would be say for the labor market or overall growth? Well, I Think everyone has been very gratified to see that we've been able to achieve.

You know, pretty significant progress on inflation without seeing the kind of increase in unemployment that has been very typical of rate hiking. Cycles Like this one, so that's that's a historically unusual and and very welcome result. And the same is true of growth. You know we've We've been saying that we need to see below.

Potential growth and growth has been strong, but yet we're still seeing this. I Think I Still believe and my colleagues for the most part I Think still believe that that it is likely to be true. It is still likely to be true, not a certainty, but likely that we will need to see some slower growth and some softening in the labor market in labor market conditions to get to you know to to fully restore price stability. So but it's a it's only a good thing that we haven't seen it.

and I think we know why. You know since since we lift it off, we we have understood that there really two processes at work here. one of them, one of which is the unwinding of the distortions to both Supply and demand from the pandemic and the response to the pandemic. And the other is is, you know, restrictive monetary policy which is moderating demand and giving the supply side time to time to recover, time and space to recover.

So you see those two forces now working together to bring down inflation. But it's that that first one can bring down inflation without the need for higher unemployment or slower growth. It's just it's Supply You know, supply side improvements like um, shortages and bottlenecks and that kind of thing going away. It's getting you know, a significant increase in the size of the labor market now, both from labor force participation and from immigration.

That's a big supply side. You know, gain that is really helping the economy. It's part of why part of why GDP is so high is because we're getting that that Supply So we welcome that. Um, but I think those things will run their course and we're probably still going to be left.

We think. and I think still be left with it with some ground to cover to get back to full price stability. And and that's where monetary policy and and what we do with demand is is still going to be important. I'm curious against that backdrop, if you've gotten any Clarity on lags.

If you have an economy that's been so resilient to high rate increases, does that suggest to you that there isn't necessarily this huge wave of tightening that's still coming through the pipeline and that it may have already come into effect? You know? I I Continue to think it's very hard to say so it's it's been one year. at this meeting one year ago, this was the fourth of our 75 basis points hike hikes so that's a full year since then I Think we are seeing the effects of of all the hiking we did last year and and this year we're seeing it. It's very hard to know exactly what that might be, but you can. for example, an example of where where you wouldn't have felt this yet is is debt that had been termed out.

Uh, but it's going to come due and have to get rolled over next year or the year after. So and there are little things like that where the effects are just taking time to get into the economy. So I don't Uh I I Think we have to make monetary policy under great uncertainty about how long I think trying to make a clear, get a clear answer say I'm just going to assume this is really not a good way to do it. This is one of the reasons why we have process down this year was to give monetary policy time to get into the economy and it takes time.

We know that and you can't rush it. So doing slowing down is giving us I think a better sense of of how much more we need to do if we need to do more. Michael M Ke from Bloomberg Television and radio Um I'm trying to connect the dots here U One quick clarification I Want to ask about um Rachel's question is you said you need slower growth You had always said before a period of lower uh than Trend growth? uh, has that changed And two, it sounds to be like uh, your basic saying here that the kind of the dot plots out the window that every meeting is live with the possibility of a rate increase for right now doesn't matter about the turn of the Uh, the year, and that there's not an objective way to determine whether or not you've got enough uh tightening in the system, it's just going to be a subjective judgment meeting by meeting. Well, so let's talk about the Dot Plot first.

So the Dot Plot is a is a a picture in time of what the people in the committee thinks is likely to be appropriate monetary policy in light of their own personal economic forecast. In principle, when things change, it's not. That's not like plan that anybody's agreed to. that's a forecast that would change.

For example, I mean many things could change. That would cause people to say I wouldn't write down that dot you know six weeks later, think of the number of things that could change your mind on that. So I think I think the the efficacy of the Dot Flot probably decays over the 3-month period between that meeting and the next meeting. but nonetheless, it's it's out there and we don't.

We do personally update our forecast and very quickly. One of the things that we said is right when it was testing the same support, there was no signs of continuous progress below this support again and people asked what do I expect to happen with the overall Market You could see that Dron pal. Nothing he has said is that they're going to stop rate hikes. Nothing he has said has been that it's going to be doish like they are not yet at their goal, right? and yet the market is finding any reason to not sell off and to continue to show signs of progress or to retest previous highs.

So this to me is just showing that the market has the potential to continue to try to run today because that's the current market sentiment, right? It's just what's being injected into the market. That's that's the current sentiment and there's just really no reason to fight it. I Thought for a minute we were going to break below this and then actually sell off, but this is nothing right Like we went to go back and retest previous support. Now we're you know, 5 minutes later.

Right back at previous resistance, a lot of consolidation, a lot of choppiness. It looks like it's still in favor for the Bulls based off of. again, we can go back. five minute time frame.

we did break below the EMA for a little bit, right? So what for that retest? But as of right now, still looking very, very bullish. and as of right now, it looks looks like the Market's trying to find any reason to continue to hold its ground and maybe make new highs. So I'm going to close out the live stream I Don't want to take too much of your guys' time, You guys can be able to Google search the F1c press conference if you want to continue to watch it. Um I have some things that I have to do um, just for for the next two hours.

Uh, in preparation for our giveaway. So uh, I hope and wish you guys nothing but the best. Um I I Just don't see there to be a reason for me to try to force a trade right now when there's so much choppiness and so much consolidation and and direction is simply unclear, right? Um, it just wasn't the move that I wanted to see. I Thought we were going to be able to decide.

Okay, let's Rally or let sell off, but it's still just just as choppy as it was leading up to it, just with a little bit more range. So uh, I'll see you guys tomorrow at Market open for our live trading session. If you want to join, it's the second link in the description down below. It's a onetime payment, livetime access, and you'll get to watch me trade live every single day, right? It's the only thing that I offer and if you want the ability to watch me trade live, it's a second link down below.

Also, don't forget to enter our M4 giveaway and to let us pay Your rent. Today's the last day to enter the Let Us Pay Your Rent giveaway and that ends tonight at midnight within 16 hours which is the fourth Link in the description down below or at Shop Techbuds outcom. It's literally you purchase anything on the site and you get entered for both giveaways. So I appreciate your time.

Hope that earned your thumbs up! Looks like NASDAQ Market just made new highs which is in favor of Tqqq now pushing that 4% Mark So congrats to the Bulls Doesn't really surprise me and friendly remind when Dron pal finishes and he stops speaking. Then there's a new wave of you know, a potential volatility or buying pressure that might kick in. So just the heads up on that Take Care team.