All right, what's going on guys, it's Ricky here with attack Bud Solutions Today it is September 20th and it is the Fomc meeting in about 13 minutes. The FMC rate decision uh, decision should be released. uh and we should be catching the Market's reaction to this. So I really do appreciate you guys taking time uh and tuning on in into um, my live session.

Uh, let me go ahead and start sharing my screen so you guys could see exactly what it is that I'm looking at. So um, I'm looking at Sqq. This was a trade that I took today during my live trading session with the Lpp team. I've already closed it out just so you can see I have my one lucky share I have no open position on Tkq other than my also one lucky share I didn't trade this one today I only traded ask Kiki Cube All of my entries and all of my exits were all caught within today's live session I Know it's during this reversal where it obviously you know it was showing signs of a descending pattern.

It was a very similar setup to yesterday. Uh, that's what I kept talking about. We broke above the moving average. we broke above the Emm and then began indicating signs of higher highs and higher lows.

It was a beautiful overall setup and then we hit our resistance here at 1874 and if we look at QQQ very easy to see the previous support range that we've had here based off of previous patterns. We saw a lot of consolidation at yesterday's close. How we Consolidated there for a little bit but again Tech is just showing a lot of signs of weakness I would say this is kind of the frustrating part and I 100 agree with a lot of you where um, why is the market selling off today, right? I mean I'm just I'm working with the market I'm not here to be biased of like uh yeah Market should be selling off or yeah, Market should be going up. Does it make sense that the market could potentially go up because of how high the expectation is for for the Federal Reserve to pause rate hikes right? For those that are unaware, this Fomc meeting is for the Federal Reserve to decide.

Are we going to be raising interest rates, making it more expensive for us to borrow money? Are we going to be pausing meaning nothing new gets added or removed? Or are we going to be cutting meaning taking away right, reducing our interest rate, making it less expensive to borrow money, right? According to this Fed rate monitor from Investing.com of course it doesn't have to be 100 accurate, but there's a 98 probability that the Federal Reserve is going to pause, right? So if that is the case, why is the market selling off? Why is why is the Federal Reserve pausing causing the market to sell off? And this is one thing that we've talked about before. it's kind of like earning reports. Things get factored in in advance in the stock market. Right when it comes down to the real estate market, it's not as real time.

If interest rates begin to go up, you begin to see demand begin to shrink as time goes on, right? It takes time for those dominoes to move. Stock market. There's a very common saying: any reaction tends to be an overreaction in the stock market. I Think that's what we could be experiencing where the market overreacted originally in the way that it originally gapped up due to specific expectations.

Um, but as of right now, I don't think the Market's doing anything surprising. We've been consolidating within the same support range same resistance range for QQQ. it's a one for one for Nasdaq and you can see that it's had a common support range right around 368 and it's had a common resistance range right around 378.. So for the past two three weeks, we've really just been consolidating, not really making progress.

on the upside, not really making progress on the downside. The only thing that we do have to show is that we are trading below the moving average and we are trading below the EMA on the one hour time frame. But then when we look at the four hour again, it's still. it's indifferent, right? No one knows exactly what's going to happen.

No one knows exactly what's going to be reported. of course, except for the market makers, right? We have to give them let them know. But one of the things that I love to do and please. this is just my opinion.

This is just the way that I like to trade. Uh, some of some people were asking that might be a little bit newer to trading. They're like Ricky why are you not in a trade right now right during the Fomc meeting because I announced that I was going to reduce my position size and leave myself with no open position other than my one lucky share. and it's because I've been burned enough, right? I've I've had enough of an experience where like when I try to predict something I do have a chance of being right, but then I also have a pretty solid chance of being wrong.

So instead of hoping for something to happen, I'm just taking a chill pill, taking a step back, staying cash meaning no open trades and if the market begins to go up, then I'll go with the market. I'll go long on tkq If the market begins to go down, then I'll begin to short the market by going into ask geeky you Very simple, right? It's a very boring way of trading. Uh, but it's simple and instead of hoping for something to happen I just prepare for something to happen. It's I like to keep my trading simple.

That's that's all I have to say about it. It might be boring for some of you, but why change something that isn't broken, right? Why why change something that doesn't need to be fixed? Obviously, the Market's always changing and adjustments always have to be made. but this is exactly how I like to trade with my Lpp team. So just a heads up.

Again, we are running our biggest sell. The link should be active. it's the second link in the description down below. We have eight minutes left until the Uh Fomc rate decision is released and then 30 minutes after Jerome Powell should be going live.

Giving his little script of a speech, he says the same thing over and over again and then he begins to answer questions. So I just want to say I appreciate you guys choosing us to tune on into our live stream. I Really hope that you learned something new and if you have any questions whatsoever, shoot me a shoot me a message within the live chat. I'll try to the best of my ability to answer any questions, especially before the Fomc begins.

but you do have to be subscribed to the YouTube channel. So I hope that I earned your thumbs up. Let's see if we can get this video to over 1000 likes. Make sure you subscribe and turn on your post notifications because if not, YouTube will unfortunately not notify you um when we get live.

So all right, where can I get that super Trend indicator? It's not super accurate. Uh, it's still something that I'm testing out. Uh, but I do have a video on it on YouTube If you want to check it out, just type in super Trend and then Ricky and it should be able to pop up on how I set it up on the Weeble trading application and my settings. So I hope that helps.

Uh, friendly reminder I am using the Weeble trading application. Let me make this very clear: you do not have to. They do have a sign up bonus right now. so it's the fifth Link in the description down below.

And that means that if you use my link and deposit at least five dollars with your initial deposit, you'll earn up to 12 free shares. It's the application that I use every single day with my Lpp team and into the application that I trade on every single day when I do take a trade, right? So yeah, All right, All right, and there it goes. NASDAQ Market beginning to pick back up I'm gonna keep my screen on NASDAQ We have six minutes left until um, the actual Fomc report is released I Think we all have a pretty decent understanding of what is going to get announced, but I Want to ask you which way is the market going right? That's that's the bigger question. Who cares about what gets announced, right? We all know that we have a pretty high expectation that the Federal Reserve is going to pause.

The question should be how is the market going to digest? That is the market going to go up or is it going to go down so bullish or bearish? I Want to see what you guys think? We're bearish as of right now. Actually, we're Break Even What a beautiful day, right? Break even right before Fomc? Let me know what you guys think in the live chat. You should be able to see it right now. Make sure you that you cast your votes.

You guys have five minutes before the Fomc uh, rape decision is actually let in. So why'd you switch from Think or Swim to Weeble uh Laura I have a video on it on YouTube I Personally think Weeble they have constant updates coming out. Uh, to me, they're uh, really putting in a lot of effort to becoming you know, the Top Dog and obviously they have a huge demographic to gain and I just I really like to I mean might just be me I Might be biased, but I think aesthetically looking. Also, it looks a lot better than it does for TD Ameritrade and in my opinion, it just uh again, just gets the job done.

Um, and the bells and whistles that they offer the different features that they offer. They're definitely trying to innovate in a market that's been very stagnant in my opinion. You guys let me know what you think. Ricky is the pause already priced in Leonardo That is normally what is expected, right? Why do? Why do markets go up or drop right before something is released? It's because things get factored in in advance.

Now again, that doesn't mean that there can't be a reaction after. And that right if I was so certain. Because in a perfect world, we have a pretty high probability that the Federal Reserve is going to pause If I Know that a pause is not a bad thing for the economy, it's decent. It's not bad, so it's not that things are getting worse.

It could be getting better, right? But we still don't know how the Market's going to react. And then on top of that, Jerome Powell is going to speak and depending on his tone, it will determine if he's more hawkish or more dovish. And then that will also cause a second reaction. right? Two reactions that I'm focused on today.

One is going to be in the next three minutes. Less than three minutes. Almost just two minutes. That's the right decision.

The second part is when Jerome Powell speaks and he begins to answer questions and it's based off of his tone that will determine if the market will go up or if the market will go down. Imagine having that much power, right? Because when we think about, oh, the Market's just moved one or two percent. You're moving one or two percent of trillion dollar companies, right? That's pretty dope. JP With the power, people, hit that thumbs up.

I appreciate that. Thank you thank you Juno All right Jerome will pass out on stage and I'll buy 500 shares of Apple at twenty dollars Jesus That's not a nice thing to say I Like that doesn't matter what I think I'm I'm setting up a stop loss I love that, right? That's if you do have an open position and that's how you choose to trade, right? Your job's not to avoid risk, your job is to manage them. And I think that takes a lot of discipline. So I'm very happy to see that that's the way that you're approaching it.

Okay, so in the next, uh, two minutes? literally? Uh, one minute left until the Fomc rate decision is released. Uh, I Do want to remind you again, you don't have to, but I work with one team and one team only I Host live sessions like this every morning at Market Open You get to see my entries. You get to see my exits. You get to hear my thought process behind every trade.

I Take within that live. it's one time payment lifetime access. We're running our biggest sell right now. It's the second link in the description down below.

So if you ever want to be able to watch me trade live and also get access to our A2Z video Lesson Library that's designed for complete beginners Again, the second link in the description down below. and if you have any questions before signing up, then feel free to send me a direct message via Instagram or via Discord And that's the first or third link in the description down below. So without further, Ado you have 22 seconds left to do something about your position or forever hold your peace because the Fomc rate decision is about to get released. Whoa like Dr Seuss Over here.

All right. Doesn't mean that your stop will work. A stop loss does get filled. A stop limit is different.

so stop loss does get filled. I Don't know what you mean by that and there it goes. QQQ Selling off. Wait wait let's let's wait.

This is again. this is something that we expected. If I'm not mistaken, it's gonna be. Let me let me end the poll here just making sure.

So 59 Bullish. And here it goes again. there's a lot of fake outs. This is probably not a day where beginners want to trade because volatility is super super high.

but check this out. This does not surprise me that all in one candle we made new loads and now we're picking right back up. Nope, it looks like the selling pressure is going to try to continue. Let's see if a Dodge 368, 368, 33 I missed out on that move already I Feel like it's going to try to recover right back down to that EMA and that moving average I'm just trying to be a little bit more cautious and again, just so you can see: I only have my one lucky share obviously in a perfect role.

If I knew that the NASDAQ Market was going to sell off, I would of course open a position. that would have been a quick one percent trade. But it's okay, right? We're not perfect. We're not here to pretend to be.

Our job is not to avoid risk just to manage it. And right now it's just a little bit too risky for me. So yep, the pause was announced. So here it goes.

All right. One week. six days, 23 hours. looks like it's still coming in.

there. it goes. New lows, lower lows, lower highs. Wow.

Man, this is a tough day for the Bulls as of right now. But remember I do I do just want to send out that reminder just because the market is selling off right now, it doesn't mean that the Market's going to continue to sell off. When Jerome Powell speaks, it has been a pattern that the market shifts. Direction When he begins to speak, if he begins to have a tone of being very dovish, markets can quickly recover, you never want to bat against the Bulls or be greedy when the overall markets are very, very bullish.

Still right and again, I'm telling you this as someone that's shorting the market so there's no benefit for me to want the market necessarily to go up. But I'm open to it, right? I'm open to anything. I'm just trying to look out for our beginner Traders I Appreciate that, you know. Thank you, thank you.

So I'm not going to be doing any breakdowns right now I'm trying to see if I can set up for my next trade. so if you have specific questions that you would like to ask me right now, it's just not going to be the time. I'm just trying to see if we're going to begin to show signs of a support and try to recover. Let's see if we do.

I Want to see if we enter Tkq? right? Nope, it's looking bearish. Are we going into Tkq? Logan I Don't know what you're doing and I don't care right? you do you? I'm doing me. Please do not copy me right. That's not the point of these live sessions I Can be wrong I've been wrong many, many times, but my job is to manage my risk, not yours.

We all see value in different ways. So please do yourself a favor and do not enter a trade in which you cannot tolerate I Don't know what other people here say on YouTube if they try to encourage you to jump into the same trades that they do. but I think that's naive and that's not the way that I want to preach. All right, Foreign.

still selling off. This is in favor for the Bears Yeah, for those that are unaware, the Federal Reserve did pause meaning that they did not raise interest rates. So this is why this is what was expected. So just a little heads up on that.

NASDAQ markets selling off Sqq gapping up I Like it I Like it. This is a super risky trade. Um, like how oversold it is I like the RSI I like the Macd I'm entering before confirmation 500 shares. it's not a very large position.

it's about 20K right under 20K and I'm okay with that, right? For those that are unaware of how much I trade with I normally trade with my full position of about half a million dollars. Please do not compare your position size to mine, right? We all trade with at different levels and that's fine. So just because I can tolerate some form of risk, doesn't mean that you need to. Just making sure I remind our beginners out there I've been wrong many times You take a trade because it makes sense to you.

not because it makes sense to me. Here it goes: still showing signs of progress. One of the things that I love about managing my position sizes by keeping it small. I'm able to tolerate more of the pullback right, making it easier for myself to manage risk.

If I need to ask you retest in previous highs 1889. Looks like we're getting close to that same 19 resistance Again, for those that are unaware I mean everyone that's part of Lpp should know, right? We trade these two pairs very often. 19 is a very common resistance range. Obviously, today is a very significant day, but we haven't been able to hold above 19 now.

Can today be the day? Of course, today, anything can happen, but we'll see. So still showing signs of a potential resistance there. So I'm excited. I'm excited.

beginning to show signs of a potential support here. I'm adding an additional 1 000 shares so that's about 38 39 000. Okay, beautiful, Beautiful. Beautiful.

So nowhere near bullish. Legit. No cuts and interest rates for all of 2024. I Don't think you understand Johnny The stock market trades based off of not things getting better, but things not getting worse.

We experienced this in 2022 to 2023. If things are getting worse, then yes, markets do sell off. If things are not getting worse than technically, they're getting better, right? It wouldn't surprise me at all. Right for you to say that Market's not bullish.

We've had one of the most bullish years for 2023. After a really nice comeback from 2022, right? very aggressive sell-off, we can go to QQQ and see how significant this has been. Imagine calling this not a very bullish time when we went from overall lows of 255 to overall highs of 386. that is with QQQ NASDAQ a 50 return if you look at the most valuable company that's publicly traded, right, that's Apple This is all in 2023.

From overall lows to highs, that was a 55 return. Imagine that you live in a world where you could have made 55 percent not by investing in a penny stock, but by investing in a V most valuable company that's publicly traded I Just want to remind you that your assumptions my assumptions are not facts. right? At the end of the day, the stock market can choose to do whatever it needs to do. So remind yourself yes, you value your opinion, but understand that, your opinion, my opinion, anyone's opinion can always be wrong.

The market can do whatever it is that it wants and that is why Y at any time, right? That is why I choose to stay cash I have very strong opinions. Do I think that the market should be thriving right now based off of recent patterns Based off of having this type of in, you know, interest rate That we do? No, not necessarily. Of course I would like markets to thrive when it makes sense, but it doesn't matter what I Think it matters what the market is showing us, what it's telling us and markets have been bullish. trust me.

I've been shorting the market more than anyone else I know, right? I have a lot of fun with it. but I always try to respect the Bulls The only people that I don't respect are AMC Traders All right is that is that cool? Can we? Can we say agree? The only people I'm disrespectful are AMC backholders. That's an inside joke for those that get easily offended. There we go.

Happy to see you guys in the live chat I Knew I needed to say something to get you guys riled up. We don't have any of you AMC Traders Here do we? If we do, let me know what you're buying. so I can start to short it? Yeah again. I Want to see everyone win I Want to see everyone win except for AMC Traders That's all I Don't care if you're long I Don't care if you're short if you're going long on the market, short on the market.

If you're an absolute beginner experience, the only people I want to see crushed or AMC just kidding I don't really even care for them either. It's just more of an inside. It's more of a joke, you know? AMC going to 1000. Yeah, after it goes through a 1 to 100 reverse stock split, right? It's already gone through one stock split and it's lost 75 percent of its valuation just from that.

So maybe it will go to a thousand, but they'll have to reduce the shares by 90. You know that'd be a good way to hit a thousand. That's going to be the squeeze they've always been waiting for, but that might be too technical for some. AMC Traders To understand they're like what's a reverse stock split.

hi Remy Remy what's my name? That's my daughter Rachel oh boy, that is too good. Uh Jerome Powell speaks in the next uh, eight? 19 minutes? Don't worry. I got you. We'll be hosting that live stream.

Okay American Airlines Yeah, where is American Airlines Right now thirteen dollars, it's still not ready for me. is American Airlines indicating signs of an uptrend? Nope, it's still selling off. It's looking like AMC right now. Why would I want to buy that? Whoo The shade is real I'm the real Slim Shady Just kidding Jesus I need to stop with these dad jokes I understand they're not funny.

Add in a little bit more. we're showing more signs of consolidation if we begin to show progress. On the downside, I'll quickly reduce my position size. uh, mitigating my risk.

Okay, so just so you understand my thought process behind this trade, we're oversold. We're beginning to show signs of a sport. It doesn't mean that it has to recover and if it begins to show progress on the downside, I'll quickly cut losses. if it begins to recover.

I'll really begin to step on the gas. Make sense I lost a lot with AMC I'm sure you did a lot of people did. Who was one of the only people that was not scared to make videos about why I think why I'm okay with day trading him and selling it and not holding it overnight and you should have seen the names that I was called during that whole thing. They did not like me.

none of those Reddit Traders did but a lot of them actually. Then later as the truth came out about AMC and what happened, they're like ah I could see that Ricky was just looking out for people that have a little bit less experience and that's all. It was right. they lacked experience, they didn't understand my why on why wouldn't I want to hold this but I get it right.

My job's always just the way that I view. It is not here to tell you what to do I'm just trying to look out for you, right? I'm never going to tell you where to buy a stock or where to sell a stock. I'm not here to sell anything like that I just want you to be aware of the risk. That's all.

as long as you're aware and you still choose to take it. You're an adult. You can do whatever it is that you want. But the part that I don't like is when people aren't aware of the risk that they're taking.

and it's just because you're naive, right? You lack experience and I'm just trying to make you aware of it. but it's something that comes with time. So yeah, how many people do we have in here? 4 000 people and 793 likes I Thought we would have a little bit more likes than that I'm a little bummed I guess they don't like me dude I need to stop with these jokes guys. get me to 2 000 likes and I'll stop the dad jokes.

get me to 3 000 likes and I'll get you a real good one Ah that's all I need to say to get you guys. Oh wow, you guys are horrible. Obviously I appreciate the likes, but you guys are pretty much telling me to shut the shut the heck up. You know, All right.

One of the things that I want to remind you is we're not consider. we're not actually showing signs of a reversal yet, right? We're not showing signs of progress above the EMA So just a heads up. this is not confirmation. So if you're asking the question, why am I still not adding more to it I've seen it many times where we test test the same resistance which is 39 right now and then we just get rejected back again.

why would I add more money to something that is not indicating signs of growth, right? I'm ready for it I would love to add more I'll add 3000 shares which 3 000 shares should be equivalent to a little bit over six figures I think it's about 116 000 but again, I want to have a y I want to have a reason why I'm adding more to something and if I don't have that, then again, I should not be adding to it. Ah, what's going on I'm sleepy. What does that even mean? What are you saying? Justin I Can't see all the messages. He's not even talking yet.

No, he speaks 30 minutes after 2 P.M right? 30 minutes after 2 P.m Eastern time. which means 11 30 a.m Arizona Time 30 minutes is 30 minutes anywhere. It's 11 16.. So yes, he is not yet talking.

There's a fact, All right. I'm just gonna set my stop just to make sure stops what will get filled. It's fine. Boom.

My job's not to avoid risk, right? Our job is to manage it. I Want to make sure that when you're trading, you have these rhetorical sayings in your head: How many of you guys ever hear me in your head when you're trading? Wait for confirmation? No progress on a trade? Any open any time? No, there's it. Just our Lpp traders that hear me in their sleep. I hear the voice.

Absolutely double top. Here it goes: Tustin EMA Let me see if I show signs of progress. Come on. 13 minutes left.

Tesla is on one though Tesla's one of the only ones. Tesla and AMD are one of the only tech companies that are on my watch list that are in the green. We got Nvidia selling off Google Selling off. Everything still looks pretty bearish, still trying to show signs of recovery.

All the hope is going to be on Jerome pound. What do you guys say? that? We play it safe, close out the position slightly in the green and then just wait until he begins to speak. Is that a boring way to trade? Ah, it might be. Huh? am I just getting that old.

There it goes. getting rejected. Same same thing getting rejected off that EMA No signs of progress Beyond EMA The right way to trade. Sounds like you're protecting your future self T Rogers I Like that Lpp for life can I get that tattooed small though Victor Please do not man.

please do not. profit is profit to another GTR Giveaway My favorite car Laura We're setting up for our M4 giveaway Who's excited to enter that we have 11 minutes left and again before Jerome Powell speaks. but yeah M4 Giveaway starts October 1st I Don't know if you guys knew this, but our previous giveaway winner just bought a license plate frame. He spent 10 bucks on the site and he walked away with fifty thousand dollars cash.

Just saying right? We have a third party sweepstakes company that chooses the winner, right? So we're licensed and bonded. We're hands off on who chooses the winner. You guys can feel free to check it out. but we are setting up for our M4 giveaway.

So nearly 700 horsepower after downpipes and tuned in full exhaust. Hope that you guys are ready for it 2021. You better believe it. Your ex-girlfriend is going to want you back.

Just kidding. A car won't change that. Who? Who? Who? you trying to kid? I'm just kidding. Oh man.

I maybe should shut up. Wait is my microphone cutting off? It's because I'm talking too much crap tusstas. All right. Did you guys hear my joke? Or is that is that what's going on in the live chat right now? Ah, I mean let's be honest.

if your girlfriend just wants you back because your girlfriend or boyfriend right? because anyone can win or I don't know what they identify as you know. but um, at the end of it they want you back just for the car, then perfect. Take them back. You know you'll take them back.

Stop trying to act humble. No. I won't get you back. If you just want me for my car, shut up.

You know you will. Uh, the winner did not select the GTR The winner selected the cash. So they won Fifty thousand dollars. Are you still holding? Yes? I Mean you could see my position right here.

Can you guys actually not hear me? or are they trolling me? Is this what happens to other streamers they're just being trolled with the whole time. All right, watch for the rejection here. We: If we begin to show signs of progress again, this is definitely not the best sign. I Mean we're showing signs of higher lows here.

Here it goes: Testing Come on buddy. Jerome Powell is about to speak in 30 in seven minutes. Do you not know that break above the EMA So I can lock in profits Justin Can you hear me Okay, let me know in the live chat because I feel like I'm being trolled. Can you hear me okay? or is there actually an issue with the microphone? Because if so, I don't know what to do.

Oh Mike is fine you? Yeah, for those that are saying that it's my microphone that is out, it's probably your Wi-Fi because you still got some type of ethernet cable or what is it? Uh, that dial up man, my jokes are not that good. I try to like, be snarky and back. it just didn't work. your Wi-Fi sucks.

That's probably why you can't hear me I don't know I'm I'm not that I try to be quick with it sometimes on these live streams I Feel like I have some pretty good jokes during our live sessions with the Lpp team. Let me know what you guys think in the live chat. If you're part of Lpp from one to ten, what do you rate my jokes at I Feel like they're pretty good. My analogies are: A1 I know they are right I need to give examples of the different trades I'm taking of why I'm waiting.

The importance behind it. Different setups, all that stuff. So analogies: 10 out of 10. jokes daily.

So if you don't want to join Lpp, if you have a low tolerance for bad jokes, if you have a low tolerance for bad jokes, then yeah, I'm probably not going to be your guy. and I respect that I Get it, it's all good. But if you like Dad jokes that are extremely bad sometimes if you like to have a good time every morning at Market open good days, bad days. you get to see my good trades.

my bad trades. Click that second link. Save 175 off. It's the biggest discount that we will ever offer you.

We offer no bigger discount than that. Um, and yeah. would love to have you as a part of the team. It's a one-time payment.

Lifetime access daily live training sessions A to Z video Lesson library and you get access to the tech buds at HQ anytime that you want to come visit. Damn, this guy's kind of cringing. Uh I Feel it. Trust me.

I know sometimes I can be I try to be funny but I feel like I'm getting a little older. It's harder for me to be naturally funny, right? you? You're young people. It's easy. You're Woody I sit in front of a screen all day taking these trades.

But thing: I don't make my money off of telling jokes, right? I'll leave that to you Justin they keep saying my microphone isn't working. Is that true? foreign still indicating signs of an uptrend? As you can see, I reduced my position size just a little bit. There it goes. The Bulls are coming back.

we have four minutes left. I'm going to reduce my position size. Once again, we're approaching the moving average right NASDAQ Market has been descending so when in doubt, something we all need to learn about is pull out and there it goes. Reducing position size up 1900 on the day on Tkq and I am up 69 Uh, 67 sorry 6700 on uh as Kiki Cube Oh man, that wasn't it that wasn't even intentional.

Ah, there it goes Getting rejected off that moving average? I'm glad that we reduced the position size slightly again. There is obvious indication of this descending pattern for Nasdaq For those that are unaware, NASDAQ Market has not been too too bullish today, other than when the market opened. We've been showing signs of a descending lower, high, lower low. So why was I so quick to sell? Well, that is my exact reason why, right? F1c meeting hasn't even begun.

Um, and that's kind of like when the big move is going to happen Fomc I'm sorry FMC rate decision was already released Jerome Powell hasn't even started to speak yet. he speaks in the next three minutes. Uh, I will be live streaming that but again, um I Just want to make sure that I mitigate my position size. One of the worst things that I can do is get very greedy, get very confident that oh yeah, this thing's going up.

it's going to continue to go up. but no, how many times have if you've ever traded fomc, how many times have you been burned because when he begins to speak Direction changes very quickly. It sucks, right? But we can only we will only know that if we've experienced it. So that's why I'm here just to remind you that we have seen it before.

So I hope that you don't take that as me telling you what to do. I will never tell you what to do. but I'm just trying to look out for anyone. Um, that's just getting started right.

Share your screen all day every day. This is what I do every day with the Lpp team so it is exclusive just to them. Normally every morning at Market open but you get to see my entries. you get to see my exit.

So imagine experiencing something like this every morning. like today's live session was really good. Some days on markets not the best, they're boring live sessions right? I'm not going to sugarcoat it, but I show up every day. I try to um I work with them every day for 30 minutes to an hour and we try to make the most out of what is being presented and that's how I feel like I can do right? I try to do my best each day.

Some days when Mark gets very good, we kill it markets choppy. It's a boring one, but it's okay, right? Our job is just to show up for a girl is a fact. I didn't realize you went live yet it wasn't posted I did post it on Discord What do you guys think? I'll let you guys decide. Um, should I sell my position on on Tkq right now or keep it open? I'll let you guys decide.

What do you think we should do? It's already showing signs of resistance here, right? A potential pullback here, so something to be aware of if we don't show signs of progress. Remember no signs of progress to any open position is a position that's open to risk. Watch this if it breaks below EMA that's not a good sign and there goes breaking below EMA I would close I would close. Yep, that's what it looks like.

It looks like it might be in our best interest to at least reduce it a decent amount, right? I'm going to sell half of what I have left. All right, All right, you guys can hear me. Okay, all right. I think that's when I keep turning my head.

That's what I'm being told. so I'll try to not move my head Diamond hands Here it goes Already beginning to pull on back in favor of SQ Oh, and Jerome Powell should be speaking. Let's go ahead and tune on in All right, I'm gonna hand over the microphone to JP My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on Es. For the American people, we understand the hardship that high inflation price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve.

Without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone in particular. Without price stability, we will not achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all. Since early last year, the Fomc has significantly tightened The Stance of monetary policy. We've raised our policy interest rate by five and a quarter percentage points and have continued to reduce our Securities Holdings at a Brisk pace.

We've covered a lot of ground and the full effects of our tightening have yet to be felt. Today, we decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged and to continue to reduce our Securities Holdings. Looking ahead, we're in a position to proceed carefully in determining the extent of additional policy farming that may be appropriate. Reducing position size or decisions will be.

Based on our ongoing assessments of the incoming data and the evolving Outlook and risks. I will have more to say about monetary policy. After briefly reviewing Economic Development s recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace, and so far this year, growth in Real GDP has come in above expectations. Recent readings on consumer spending have been particularly robust.

Activity in the housing sector has picked up somewhat, though it remains well below levels of a year ago, largely reflecting higher mortgage rates. Higher interest rates also appear to be weighing on business fixed investment. In our summary of economic projections testing five-minute moving average, just a heads up, it's been supervised up their assessments of real GDP growth with the median for this year now at 2.1 percent. Participants expect growth to cool, with the medium projection falling to 1.5 percent.

Next year, the labor market remains tight, but supply and demand conditions continue to come into better balance. Over the past three months, payroll job gains averaged 150 000 jobs per month, a strong Pace that is nevertheless well below that scene. Earlier in the year, the unemployment rate ticked up in August but remains low at 3.8 percent. The labor force participation rate has moved up since late last year, particularly for individuals aged 25 to 54 years.

lack of progress. nominal wage growth has shown new highs decline. So far. This year, labor demand still exceeds the supply of available workers.

Fomc participants expect the rebound. I am fully out of my position, easing upward pressures on inflation. One lucky share: the median unemployment rate projection in the SCP rises from 3.8 percent at the end of this inverse to 4.1 percent. Over the next two years, inflation remains well above our longer run goal of two percent four percent over the 12 months ending in August.

Look at that retracement, not excluding the volatile food and energy categories, Core Pce prices arose 3.9 percent. Beautiful. Inflation has moderated somewhat since the middle of last year, and longer term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored, as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, as well as measures from financial markets. The progress: the process of getting inflation sustainably down to two percent has a long way to go.

The median projection in the SCP for total Pce inflation is 3.3 this year, falsely two and a half percent next year, and reaches two percent in 2026.. the Fed's monetary policy actions are Guided. By our mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices For the American people, my colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship as it erodes purchasing power, especially for this higher costs of Essentials like food, housing, and transportation. We are highly attentive to the risks that high inflation poses to both sides of our mandate, and we are strongly committed to returning.

40 Objective: As I noted earlier, since early last year, we have raised our policy rate by five and a quarter percentage points. We see the current stance of monetary policy as restrictive, putting downward pressure on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. In addition, the economy is facing headwinds from tighter credit conditions for households and businesses, the range for their Federal funds rate at five and a quarter to five and a half percent. and to continue the process of significantly reducing our Securities Holdings We are committed to achieving and sustaining The Stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down towards.

Congrats on your 4K In our SCP Fomc participants wrote down their individual assessments of an appropriate path for the Federal Funds rate based on what each participant judges to be the most likely sorry, the most likely scenario going forward. If the economy evolves as projected, the median participant projects at the appropriate level of the Federal Funds rate same resistance rate six percent at the end of this year, 5.5 the end of 2024, and 3.9 at the end of 2025. compared with our June summary of economic projections, the median projection is unrevised for the end of this year, but has moved up by a half percentage point at the end of the next two years. These projection projections, of course, are not a committee's decision or plan.

If the economy does not evolve as projected, the path of policy will adjust as appropriate to Foster our trusted moving average Price Stability goals. We will continue to make our decisions, meeting by meeting based on the totality of the incoming data. This is experiences for the outlook for economic activity and inflation as well as the balance of risks. Be careful, given how far we have come, we are in a position to proceed carefully as we assess the incoming data and the evolving Outlook and risks.

Big push for the real interest rates of mainstream estimates of the neutral policy rate, but we are mindful of the inherent uncertainties in precisely gauging The Stance of policy. We're prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and we intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we're confident that inflation is moving down sustainably toward our objective in determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to two percent. over time. The committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary sub policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial.

Let's go baby. Come on, we remain committed to Bringing inflation back down to our two percent goal, and to keep what the heck, longer term inflation expectations well anchored. It's essential to set the stage for achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the longer run. To conclude, we understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country.

Everything we do is in service to our public mission. Watch for the market once everybody stops speaking to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals. Thank you and I look forward to your questions. All right, let's see what the market moves based off of these questions.

Remember it says tone. Is he hawkish or is he dubbing Financial Times What makes the committee inclined to think that the Fed fund's rate at this level is not yet strictive as especially Colby Smith Officials are forecasting a slightly more benign inflation outlook for this year. There's noted uncertainty about policy lags. Headwinds have emerged from the looming government shutdown, the end of Federal child care funding, resumption of student debt payments, um, things of that nature.

So I guess I Would Um characterize the the Sit situation a little bit differently. So we decided to maintain the target range for the Federal Funds rate where it is at five and a quarter to five and a half percent, while continuing to reduce our Securities Holdings And we say we're committed to achieving and sustaining it solid state monetary policy that's sufficiently restricted two percent over time. We said that. Um, but the fact that we decided to maintain the policy rate at this meeting doesn't mean that we've decided that we have or have not at this time reached uh that that that stance of monetary policy that we're seeking That's good.

If you looked at the SCP as you, as you obviously will have done, you will see that majority of participants believe that it is more likely than not that we will that it will be appropriate for us to raise rates one more time. That's not good, that's how many meetings this year. let's see what the Marketplace I Believe that we have already reached that. So it's It's something where we're by.

We're not making a decision by by deciding to uh about that question. by. deciding to just maintain the rate and await further data. Um, so right now, it's still an open question about sufficiently restrictive.

You're not saying today that we've reached this level. Um, we're not saying yeah, no. I know Clearly, we were just what we decided to do is maintain the policy rate and await further data. We want to see convincing evidence really, that we have reached the appropriate level.

And then you know we, We've seen progress and and we welcome that. But uh, you know we need to see more beautiful or we'll be willing to. Um, first of all, um, interest rates real interest rates are are positive. Now they're meaningfully positive and that's a good thing.

We need a policy to be restrictive so that we can get inflation down to Target Okay, and we need. We're going to need that to remain to be the case for some time. So I think you know? Remember that the of course the SCP is not a plan that is negotiated or discussed really as a plan. it's accumulation really.

And what you see are the medians. The accumulation of individual forecasts from 19 people and then what you're seeing are the median. So I wouldn't want to, you know, but still on it. I was short on that trail moments before you're gonna be paying attention to what I'm buying itself.

What you're seeing is this is what people believe as of now will be appropriate to achieve what we're looking to achieve which is progress toward our Uh I Like that Michael inflation goal as you see in the SCP chair Powell Fresh from The Washington Post Thanks for taking our questions. How would you characterize the debate around another hike or holding steady? Is it discussion around lag times? Fear of too much snowing? Could you walk us through what this disagreement was? Keep it simple baby. Yeah. So the proposal at the meeting was to was to maintain our current policy stance and and I think there was obviously unanimous support for that.

But this of course is an SCP meeting. and so people write down what they think and you've got you have some you saw I think seven wrote down no hike at this at this meeting or between now and the end of the year and I think 12 wrote down uh, another single hike in one of the next two meetings. remember that between the interview so it wasn't like we were arguing over that, people just stating their positions and really what what people are saying is, let's see how the data come in. You know we want to see.

You know we want to see. We want to see that that this this, uh, these good inflation readings that we've been seeing for the last three months. We want to see that it's more than just three months, right? We want to see. You know the the Labor Market report that we received the last one that received was a good example of we do what we do want to see.

It was a combination of of uh, you know, across a broad range of indicators, continuing rebalancing of the labor market. So those are the two things. Those are our two mandate variables and and that's that's the progress that we want to see. But I think people who want to be convinced you know they want to be careful to not to jump to a conclusion really one way or the other, but just be convinced that the data you know support that conclusion.

And that's why. Uh, given how far we've come and how quickly we've come, we're actually in a position to be able to proceed carefully as we assess the incoming data and the evolving outlooks and risks and make these decisions. And in your view, what would I know? Nothing has been decided yet, but what would one more hike at the end of the year do to the economy or to inflation on and on the other side? What would no hike do if you could sort of game that out for us So you know you can make the argument that one hike one way or the other won't matter. But for us, we're trying.

We've obviously as a group, it's a pretty tight cluster of uh of where we think that that policy stance might be, but we're always going to be learning from data. You know? we've learned all through the course of the last year that actually we needed to go further than we had thought. We go back a year and what we thought Uber wrote down. it's actually gotten higher and higher so we don't really know.

And until and that's why again, we're in a position to proceed carefully. At this point, a year ago, we proceeded. yeah, rates up. Now now we're fairly close.

We think to where we need to get. Um, it's it's just a question of reaching the right stance. I Wouldn't attribute huge importance to one hike. uh in macroeconomic terms.

Nonetheless, you know we need. we need to get uh to a place where we're confident that we have a stance that will bring inflation down over time. That's what we need to get. Write that email we've been.

You know we've been moving toward it as we've gotten closer to it. This is I Think that was appropriate And now that we're getting closer, we again we have the ability to proceed carefully. Let's go my boy. Steve Policeman CNBC But sure I Want to return to Colby's question here.

Um, what is it saying about the committee's view of the inflation dynamic in the economy that you achieve the same forecast inflation rate for next year but need another half a point of the funds rate on it? Does it tell you that? Tell us that the committee believes inflation to be more persistent requires more medicine effectively and I guess a related question is if you're going to project custom EMA a funds rate above the longer run rate for four years in a row? At what point do we start to think, hey, maybe the longer rate or the Nutra rate is actually higher Thank you. So I guess I would Point more to rather than pointing to a sense of inflation having become more persistent, I wouldn't think that's not. We've seen inflation be more persistent over the course of the past year, but I wouldn't say that's something that's appeared in the recent data. It's more about stronger economic activity I would say so.

if I had to attribute one thing again, we're we're picking uh, medians here and trying to attribute one explanation. But I Think broadly stronger economic activity means means no hesitation and that's what. that's what that meeting is is telling you. Um, in terms of of what the neutral rate can be, you know, we we, uh, we, we know it by its works, We only know it by its works.

Really, we can't We can't. You know the the model dude falls in and that we the economy reacts and again, that's another reason why we're We're moving carefully now because you know there are lags here. Federal Reserve didn't pay the internet bill. It may it may of course be that the uh, that the neutral rate has risen.

You do see people you don't see the median moving, but you do see people raising their estimates of of the neutral rate. And it's certainly plausible that the neutral rate is higher than uh than the longer run rate. Remember what we write down in the SCP is the longer run rate. It is certainly possible that you know that the that the neutral is higher than that and that uh, dance for me, you dance for me.

There you go, buddy Then then expected. Oh so you've said several times. Something that you guys should know is special. In comparison to my live trading sessions with the Lpp team, my position size is still relatively pretty light.

I'm staying at about 50 to even 40. Why? volatility is very high right now. Which means that it comes at a greater form of risk. So yes, I am taking trades, quick ends, quick outs.

but I'm reducing my position size when doing so. This is why I'm kind of light-hearted right now because although I'm taking it seriously, it's light enough that it's not making me irrational. I Don't know if you've ever struggled with this, but sometimes when your position is too aggressive, you almost have too much skin in the game, just sharing with you my thoughts in other places in for example, job openings and in um, the Jobs Worker Gap you're also seeing a supply side things. So so that's happening.

Um I Would say though we still I still think and I think broadly. people still think that they'll have to be some softening in the labor market that can come through more Supply as we've seen as well. Also remember the natural rate we think is is coming down, which is a supply side thing so that the the gap between any given unemployment rate that's lower than that and the natural rate comes down. That's a way for supplies.

That's a way for the labor market to achieve a better balance. So all of those things are happening. You're right in in the in the median forecast. We don't see a big increase in unemployment.

We do see an increase and um, but that's that really is just playing forward the trends that we've been seeing that is not guaranteed there. There may come a time when unemployment goes up more than that, but that's that's really what we've been seeing is progress without higher unemployment for now. So just to boil that down for a second. Um, you know we've gone from a very narrow path to a of to a soft Landing uh to something different.

Um, would you call the soft Landing now a Baseline Beautiful No. I had 1500 shares left very very light now I would just let it run. What would I say about that? Um I've always thought that the soft Landing was was a plausible outcome. That there was a path.

really. Do you see this to us coming up on our previous Services We lifted off right. It's also making you aware. why am I reducing? Because we're approaching the previous, support patterns tend to repeat themselves.

They don't always happen. This may be decided by factors that are that are outside our control at the end of the day, But I do think it's I Do think it's possible. Beautiful, You know. I Also think, um, you know this is why we're in a position to to move carefully again.

Uh, that we will restore price stability. We we know that we have to do that. Then we know the public depends on us doing that, and we know that we have to do it so that we can achieve the kind of labor market that we all want to achieve, which is a an extended period, sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all. We know that the fact that we've come this far, uh, lets us really, uh, proceed carefully is as I keep saying so.

I think um, you know that's that's the end we're trying to achieve. Um I Wouldn't want to handicap the likelihood of it though. it's not up to me to do that. Nick Timarosa The Wall Street Journal Chair Powell Both you and vice chair Williams have indicated that sufficiently restrictive will be judged on a real rather than nominal basis, implying some scope for nominal rate.

Cuts Next year provided further compelling evidence the price pressures will continue to subside is the Fomc focused on targeting a real level of policy restriction? and can you explain what would constitute enough evidence that will allow the Fomc to normalize the nominal stanza policy while keeping real policy settings sufficiently restrictive? I Mean yes, We We understand that it's a real rate that will matter and it needs to be sufficiently restrictive. And again, I would say you know no sufficiently restrictive only when you see it You It's not something you can arise in a model or or in various estimates, you know. And so what are we saying? You know through a combination of the you know the unwinding of the pandemic, related demand and supply distortions and monetary policies work in suppressing demand or or alleviating very high demand. The combination of those two things is actually working.

You're seeing. You know, uh, inflation coming down. It's principally now in Goods Also in Housing Services you begin to see effects of it in non-housing Services as well. So I think we think that that is working and um, I I think what you know.

As we've said, we want to reach that we want to reach Something That We're confident. Uh, it gets us to that level. And I think confidence comes from seeing you know enough data that you feel like, yes, Okay, this feels like it. We can.

We can for now decide that this is the right level and just agree to stay here. We're not permanently deciding not to go higher, but let's see if we get to that level. and then the question is, how long do you stay at that level And that's a whole other set of questions. For now.

the question is trying to find that level where we think we can stay there and we haven't. We haven't gotten to a point. I Have confidence about that. Sorry guys, That's that's what we're That's the state of this year.

And even then it seems possible the core Pce inflation could come in even lower than the median of 3.7 percent. Would you see a case to raise rates? Still, if it turned out that you were going to achieve wow this year, because the decline in inflation proceeds somewhat better than you than you currently anticipate the decision that we make at you know, at each meeting and certainly I lost the last 200 years, that's going to depend on the totality of all the data. So the inflation data, the labor market data, the growth data, the the balance of risks, and the other events that are happening out there we'll make. We take all of that into account.

So I can't really answer a hypothetical about one piece of that. It'll It'll be trying to reach it judgment over whether I'll sell it. We should move forward with another rate hike, one lucky share and whether that would increase eight thousand, eight hundred and forty nine dollars. Appropriate movement will help help us be more confident that we've gotten to the level that we need to get to testing.

Same support range here for a Tqq. We'll see if we bounce we don't need to. um following up on next question actually. Um John Williams the New York yellow.

Obviously, Um has said things to the effect of next year as we see inflation kind of again to Nick's Point As we see inflation coming down, we're going to need to reduce interest rates to make sure that we're not squeezing the economy harder and harder over time. And I wonder if that's basically the logic that you apply? You know, is that how you think about it? And then I Also wonder in the last question for progress. On the downside throughout those discussions and people interpreted that to mean that you didn't see a possibility of a rate cut in the first half of next year and I wonder if that was what you meant by that or whether you know how you're thinking about that. you know when.

So when I answer these questions about hypotheticals about about cutting I'm never intending to send a signal without timing. I'm just answering them as as the question is expressed. so so please. I I wouldn't want to be taken that way.

Sorry. The first question was that. Helm Yeah, so we're As we go into next year. That's the question We'll be asking is you know, taking into account lags and everything else we know about the economy and everything we know about monetary policy.

Um, the time will come at some point and I'm not saying when, uh, that is appropriate. Beautiful part of that may be that real rates are rising because inflation is coming down. Part of it just may be that it'll be seeing the economy and you know that time will certainly come at some point and what you see is us writing down you know, a year ahead estimates of what that might be and you know there's you know there's so much uncertainty around that when we in the moment we'll do what we think makes sense. No one will look back at this and say hey, we made a plan It's not like that at all.

It's this is these are estimates made a year in advance. They're highly uncertain and uh, that's how it is. thanks so much. Uh chair Powell Neil Irwin With Axios I Wonder how do you think about the question of whether the strong GDP growth we've been seeing is driven by excess Demand versus supply Side factors productivity, labor force growth uh, and relatedly, uh, if GDP keeps coming in hot, we're almost at that 30 minute margins.

With that on its own be a reason to consider more tightening. So on your first question I mean we're looking at GDP very very carefully to try to understand really what's the direction of it. What's what's uh, what's driving it And it's a lot of consumer spending. You know it's been, the consumer's been very, uh, robust and it's in in spending.

So that is. Um, you know that's how we're looking at it. Um, sorry. Your second question was does GDP uh stays hot but without inflation? So I I think the question will be GDP is not a mandate, right? The maximum employment and price stability are the mandates.

The question will be: is is the limit is GDP Is the is the heat that we see in GDP Is it really a threat to our ability to get back to two percent inflation? That's going to be the question? It's not. It's so again, the thought process behind the I mean he's just answering that question. That's pretty basic. Uh QQQ which is NASDAQ testing its support range.

The reason I'm taking a trade right now is because we continue to consolidate within the same support and within the same resistance. right? Same resistance across the board, same support across the board. It doesn't mean that it has to bounce I'm just explaining to you on why I took the trade. It was Consolidated in here.

which it's Consolidated there before when it Consolidated Here Last time we gapped up we got rejected at the same resistance and then we gapped right back down. right That's when I took my Sqq trade making money on the way down. This is where I'm setting again to make money as the NASDAQ Market tries to recover. This does not mean that it has to like.

Make that very clear. The risk is that it breaks below, breaks its pattern and then I have to cut losses I will have to do that if we do get that breakup pattern. Do not take a trade in which you cannot tolerate I'm not here to be like other YouTubers that I'll try to convince you to take the same trade that I take I Never want you to take this entry that I take I want you to only take trades that make sense to you and risk management is not something you avoid. Mis Risk management is something that you do right behind every single trade.

So please be aware of that. If we see a breakup pattern here, I will have no other choice but to cut losses on that position. and that's the risk that comes with opening up position. So please make sure that you understand that.

Oh, it's economic effects to do our jobs. So um, you know the the thing about it is so uncertain it will depend the economic effects it could affect you. Look, we've looked back at history. It could affect ec