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MICHAEL BURRY WARNING:
First, he mentions that - as of now, more than 13% of stocks closed above their 200-day-moving average … and, generally…the ABSOLUTE stock market bottom occurs when that number is below 5%.
Second, he mentions that there are currently 218 companies worth more than $1 billion dollars…that LOSE $100 MILLION DOLLARS PER YEAR…and, 29 companies with more than a $10 billion dollar market cap…which, still can’t turn a profit. As he says…”all the silliness must go."
Third, he points out that “Inflation appears in spikes. It resolves, fools people, and then it comes back” - with a chart, showing that - since the 1940’s - inflation never just occurred once, and then disappeared. In every circumstance through today - inflation will decline…people will celebrate by spending more money…and, THEN - inflation will re-appear for as long as a decade…all because of:
Fourth, the Velocity Of Money. This tracks how often each dollar is ACTUALLY SPENT - and THEN - how often that money circulates back within the economy. Because of that, Michael Burry notes that - despite the Federal Reserve taking money OUT OF THE ECONOMY by rising rates - the average dollar is now being spent more frequently with a higher money velocity - and, because of that, inflation will CONTINUE to remain high.
However…there IS some good news, in the fact that - NOW could be the great opportunity to invest, because…THIS where the money is made.
In terms of the AVERAGE bull market…if we DON’T include drops of less than 20%, the average bull market has lasted a whopping 9.1 years with a cumulative return of 476%.
And if we INCLUDE drops of LESS than 20%, which are more like minor hiccups along the way…the AVERAGE Bull Market still lasts an average of 4 year, with a cumulative return of 129%.
So, just given this context...even though, on average, bull markets do last longer than bear markets…history has shown us that volatility is extremely common, and seeing drops or gains of 20% in either direction isn’t as extreme as you would think.
Now, in terms of what Michael Burry is doing - he believes that “Free Cash Flow is totally on sale and ignored while former momentum stocks are coming down but not far enough. Value was about to take off for years despite more crash on the way” - suggesting that boring, staple, and profitable businesses will be the ones that outperform in the short term.
That’s why, I believe, it’s best to be cautious in a market like this and prepare for the worst…but also - don’t tailor your investment strategy to a plan that may, or may not happen. Just from what I’ve seen… too many people have lost MORE MONEY planning for “the inevitable crash” than those who keep buying on a regular basis, regardless of how the market trades..and, long term, that will continue to be my plan.
My ENTIRE Camera and Recording Equipment:
https://www.amazon.com/shop/grahamstephan?listId=2TNWZ7RP1P1EB
For business or one-on-one real estate investing/real estate agent consulting inquiries, you can reach me at GrahamStephanBusiness @gmail.com
*Some of the links and other products that appear on this video are from companies which Graham Stephan will earn an affiliate commission or referral bonus. Graham Stephan is part of an affiliate network and receives compensation for sending traffic to partner sites. The content in this video is accurate as of the posting date. Some of the offers mentioned may no longer be available. This is not investment advice. Public Offer valid for U.S. residents 18+ and subject to account approval. There may be other fees associated with trading. See Public.com/disclosures/
GET YOUR FREE STOCK WORTH UP TO $1000 ON PUBLIC & READ MY THOUGHTS ON THE MARKET - USE CODE GRAHAM: http://www.public.com/graham
Trade Bitcoin, Doge, and other crypto with low fees on FTX. Use my referral code GRAHAM and get up to $100 FOR FREE: https://ftx.us/partners/graham
GET MY WEEKLY EMAIL MARKET RECAP NEWSLETTER: http://grahamstephan.com/newsletter
The YouTube Creator Academy:
Learn EXACTLY how to get your first 1000 subscribers on YouTube, rank videos on the front page of searches, grow your following, and turn that into another income source: https://the-real-estate-agent-academy.teachable.com/p/the-youtube-creator-academy/?product_id=1010756&coupon_code=100OFF - $100 OFF WITH CODE 100OFF
MICHAEL BURRY WARNING:
First, he mentions that - as of now, more than 13% of stocks closed above their 200-day-moving average … and, generally…the ABSOLUTE stock market bottom occurs when that number is below 5%.
Second, he mentions that there are currently 218 companies worth more than $1 billion dollars…that LOSE $100 MILLION DOLLARS PER YEAR…and, 29 companies with more than a $10 billion dollar market cap…which, still can’t turn a profit. As he says…”all the silliness must go."
Third, he points out that “Inflation appears in spikes. It resolves, fools people, and then it comes back” - with a chart, showing that - since the 1940’s - inflation never just occurred once, and then disappeared. In every circumstance through today - inflation will decline…people will celebrate by spending more money…and, THEN - inflation will re-appear for as long as a decade…all because of:
Fourth, the Velocity Of Money. This tracks how often each dollar is ACTUALLY SPENT - and THEN - how often that money circulates back within the economy. Because of that, Michael Burry notes that - despite the Federal Reserve taking money OUT OF THE ECONOMY by rising rates - the average dollar is now being spent more frequently with a higher money velocity - and, because of that, inflation will CONTINUE to remain high.
However…there IS some good news, in the fact that - NOW could be the great opportunity to invest, because…THIS where the money is made.
In terms of the AVERAGE bull market…if we DON’T include drops of less than 20%, the average bull market has lasted a whopping 9.1 years with a cumulative return of 476%.
And if we INCLUDE drops of LESS than 20%, which are more like minor hiccups along the way…the AVERAGE Bull Market still lasts an average of 4 year, with a cumulative return of 129%.
So, just given this context...even though, on average, bull markets do last longer than bear markets…history has shown us that volatility is extremely common, and seeing drops or gains of 20% in either direction isn’t as extreme as you would think.
Now, in terms of what Michael Burry is doing - he believes that “Free Cash Flow is totally on sale and ignored while former momentum stocks are coming down but not far enough. Value was about to take off for years despite more crash on the way” - suggesting that boring, staple, and profitable businesses will be the ones that outperform in the short term.
That’s why, I believe, it’s best to be cautious in a market like this and prepare for the worst…but also - don’t tailor your investment strategy to a plan that may, or may not happen. Just from what I’ve seen… too many people have lost MORE MONEY planning for “the inevitable crash” than those who keep buying on a regular basis, regardless of how the market trades..and, long term, that will continue to be my plan.
My ENTIRE Camera and Recording Equipment:
https://www.amazon.com/shop/grahamstephan?listId=2TNWZ7RP1P1EB
For business or one-on-one real estate investing/real estate agent consulting inquiries, you can reach me at GrahamStephanBusiness @gmail.com
*Some of the links and other products that appear on this video are from companies which Graham Stephan will earn an affiliate commission or referral bonus. Graham Stephan is part of an affiliate network and receives compensation for sending traffic to partner sites. The content in this video is accurate as of the posting date. Some of the offers mentioned may no longer be available. This is not investment advice. Public Offer valid for U.S. residents 18+ and subject to account approval. There may be other fees associated with trading. See Public.com/disclosures/
If You're saying the stock market makes no sense, we're f****d!
I’m honestly done with all these videos. The exhausting click bait literally every video is “the world is ending”……
burry blocked me(
why tf would any of us believe what the banks and media says? Of course they're going to say stocks are going up, they want to steal more of our money. Id rather believe Burry, because that guy is crazy smart and out played dozens of banks countless times, if anyone knows whats coming, Burry does, not Morgan Stanley
I think those graphs are misleading
Who taught you how to shave? I can't imagine what that process looks like for you to get that result.
Are u using sheep shears?
You just referenced Legend?! Such an underrated movie (with a young Tom cruise). Andrei now has competition!!
What’s up Graham it’s guys here
I'm glad I didn't follow your advice to get into cryptocurrency. You wanted me to sign up with your friend that had some secret computer program that was supposed to make me millions. cryptocurrency is going to zero soon and has already crashed hard. Your just trying to make an extra buck off of your subscribers. I quit following you or listening to your videos because of it. Your pushy and only care about yourself.
Just for your information: your thank you pictures get you my likes early…. before I forget that liking a video helps you out. BOOM, you're welcome.
riddle me this!!!! What is the difference between 🐔 Little and a republican!!??? Chicken Little believed what he said. Republicans are fat out lying.
Acting is just professional pretending.
I love your Content. But your thumbnails are alot of times click Bait.
WTF DUDE!!! You are a republican agent.
I would like to remind everyone that due to the asymetric nature of stock market investing, after a 100% bull market return only a 50% bear market loss results in the same initial investment. So do not get fooled by the larger bull market numbers – they do need to outperform much more.
Graham is the Ben Shapiro of finances.
Short sellers + ppl overreacting = opportunities for investors. Patience + F.O.M.O + buy back companies = profits for investors. Direxion ETFs that's how I roll.
Used car salesman
video this stuff good is
Aren't you bored making same videos again and again? I am bored watching this warning videos now. Make something interesting and new
Excellent insight as always, Graham! This is what every investor needs. Great work!
The Scottish lord thing is dum
If you bought at the peak, it won't take you years to break even, the market doesn't even have to get back to the same highs. You just have to hedge those positions on the way down so when the market goes back up, you can reduce those peak positions using the equity on shares bought at the lower positions. You don't have to trade options, but you do have to be vigilant. No one cares more about you money than you. I relied on a broker who lump summed a ton of cash at the top and now I'm left holding the bag. The learning curve is awesome, this bear market is forcing me to invest wisely.
Same headline every day take a few days off man
It's ok we can just blame Trump for it
anyone disagree that btc will inevitably go back up before i invest all this money 😂