This is tom mash. And let's talk about the fed. Minutes. Now look.

If if you wanted a primer on how to use so much words. And say absolutely read the minutes that came out today at 2pm. This was a nothing burger. So much words.

So little substance. Now our own president is telling us that we are in a time of crisis. That's exactly what he said in that bone ahead letter. He sent to the gas.

Stations. Oh my god i can't believe i just said that the us president sent a letter to the gas stations demanding them to reduce prices but anyways if we are in a time of trouble. I expect. The fed to be more honest because at war.

We need to be more honest with each other especially if you are the spokesperson for this stupid ass monetary policy. I do not expect you to be 100 honest a hundred percent of the times. Dear fed in fact. I'm kind of fed up of talking about you got it fed up.

But i do expect just a little bit tiny sprinkles of truth on top of all this you put out in these minutes. But of course. We didn't even get that how shocking now look in this video. I'm going to run a little simulation.

I'm gonna tell you exactly what the minutes should have been like what the verbiage should have sounded like if the fed was not lying to you was not bullshitting you and was giving you a hundred percent truth and it's not going to be a long video. Because there's not a lot to talk about but even that little information that you should have gotten from the fed you did not get and i view it as the moral breach of fiduciary duty. I feel that even though it's not an official duty of the fed. But they do have a moral duty to be honest with you and to help you prepare for a recession.

If one is literally inevitable and they did not do that so in my book. They're not good now look. The first thing. We have to talk about responsibility.

Now. The fed minutes talk about russia ukraine about the lockdowns about every single possible. External excuse. That caused this inflation to be much worse than it really was now i get it and i'm not going to sit here and pretend like the war in ukraine.

Did not contribute to what we are seeing right now. I'm not going to be sitting here. Telling you that the lockdowns did not do that. But if i actually had to put percentage points in these things eighty percent of our inflation is coming from dc from printing money because there's other countries that experience very similar supply chain shortages that are not at nine percent inflation switzerland for example is a country that basically plays in the same playing field.

The same shortages their inflation this year is two and a half percent how come that's because it's mostly mostly not exclusively but mostly monetary policy and in that respect. The fed should have come out. And said hey we effed up we printed too much money. And by that we are the main culprit of what's going on right now we're going to try and fix it.

But we understand this was our mistake not a word about that not a word about the fact that they up the transitory that they're trying to feed us just rush. Ukraine and covet lockdowns that's the only reason. This is happening. It's not even their fault.

Now that's a little bit of a rant point. Now let's move to more actionable points. Now let's talk about the inflation. Numbers that you're getting and again.

They're quoting. The numbers they're talking about it. But they're pretty much useless. And i've said it before what are this as this what are these numbers that we're all talking about what is the core price inflation right.

What is it it's basically everything without the two most important things. Which is how you eat and how you drive no gasoline. No food. Great.

So. The core inflation is much lower than the regular inflation. So. The negative inflation is eight point six percent or whatever right.

But the problem is that they're not even trying to measure inflation correctly these numbers were throwing around five percent six percent eight point six percent these are not the real numbers. All you got to do is open an article from yesterday and see what happened to car payments in the us. So over the past year we went up to seven hundred dollars average monthly payment for vehicles in the us seven hundred dollars for a regular car the average now talking about luxury not talking about anything super expensive 700 bucks. If that's the case.

If now gas is out of control if groceries are expensive not by eight point six percent. You know exactly what i'm talking about if everything is more offensive than 86. At least anything that matters to our daily. Life how the are we at 86.

Don't even get me started on core. Which is a complete bs festival. Now look ah. I think that the fed should come out.

And say hey. The real rate of inflation might be higher than what we calculate in our formula. Now. It's a fair statement to say it's not going to be breaching their facade.

Saying that their calculation might have a mistake. It's normal. Any calculation might have that and if they say it and they say hey and that means that the risk for things getting up is higher. Because our calculation might not be as accurate as you think that will help me prepare.

But of course. They say nothing about it now talking about a risk. Let's talk about the recession. Now everybody's talking about the recession.

Except the fed this minutes. Absolutely said nothing about a recession. Absolutely nothing now that's very interesting because according to gdp now. Which is the tracker by the atlanta fed we just had two negative quarters of gdp.

One is certain the first quarter. The second one you know it's probably going to be minus one percent. However not rewarded by recession from the fed i mean even if it's a technical recession. Whatever you want to call it even if you want to argue that realistically because of the job market.

This is not a recession. How come you're not even mentioning it it has such a merry barra gm feel to it remember when president biden would not say the word tesla and would claim that mary bar and gm are the leaders of the ev industry. It's a similar feel why are you not saying the word recession is this a political hot potato. I thought you guys were supposed to be not political apolitical defend.

Why the do you even care say. The word now look let's not pretend the recession is coming that's a fact let's not pretend that it's not going to happen. The only question is how bad it's going to be but that is also something that they cannot talk about if they haven't even mentioned. The freaking word of a recession.

Now the next thing that i feel that should have been there to help you prepare is the fact that hey we cannot raise interest rates beyond five percent. We're probably capped at five percent. The fed that is because every single percentage points. We're going to raise is gonna cost us an extra 300 billion dollars per year in servicing debt.

Now people talk about paul volcker from the 70s and how he built inflation with super high interest rates and how it caused the recession. That's all fine and then the one thing you should realize. And i've made a whole video about this talking how the us national debt is spiraling out of control. Go check out that video now in that video explained to you.

When volcker was in office. Our debt to gdp. Was 30. Basically our debt was one third of our gdp right now we're at one and a half times our gdp is 21 trillion dollars our debt is much higher than that you know how much higher 30 trillion dollars.

So in those levels of that every single percentage point of interest. We're raising is going to cost us 300 billion dollars. That's a lot of money. But where is it coming from is it coming from more taxes is coming from where if we're just printing money to do that i mean.

That's just basically making inflation worse. While actually raising interest rates. I don't understand the logic of that but look. I think what's going on here is that the fed is not saying that and i understand why they're.

Hesitant letting you know this us. Debt ceiling. That prevents the interest rates of going higher. Because the fed needs you to believe and that's actually something i understand.

And i agree with they need you to believe that interest rates can go much much higher. Because in that case. The stock market is going to price in a much higher interest rates than they can actually enforce now they're basically head faking. They're bluffing whatever you want to say but they're hoping that the market is going to self correct on the assumption that they're going to raise the rates.

The problem with this assumption is that it assumes that everybody else is freaking stupid. And don't understand what i just said unfortunately in the financial industry. Some of the smartest people actually make the same points that i make which is nobody's going to buy this because everybody knows they cannot raise interest rates so that's just something you might want to tackle if everybody knows that you're full of might as well say something about it now before i go to the final point. I want to say thank you for fdxus for sponsoring this video.

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The final point is really interesting. Here's where it actually gets much more practical so the final point is like look if we have a massive tree you know nine trillion dollars on a balance sheet. The fed that is right if we're going to decrease. It if we're going to increase rates.

Let's say to five percent right we're going to put some pressure on the market. And if the market is already in two negative quarters of gdp that means every session is already in progress so what do you do in a recession. Because if the fed was honest they should have told you hey listen this is the recession. It's going to be unpleasant.

This is how you can mitigate the effects on yourself your career your household budget your company whatever that may be but of course they're ignoring it they don't look up method and by the time you're going to look up it's going to be too late so. Here's the thing. I made a whole video a whole video telling you how to run your personal finance during a recession. How to prepare how to mitigate risks how to do everything you need in recession to survive.

I'm gonna put it on an end screen right here right now go check it out right now don't forget to subscribe to this channel. If you haven't yet and i'll see in the next video.