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Herman Miller Aeron: https://amzn.to/3oc2mh6
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London 12 Room Kit – Primacoustics: https://amzn.to/3GeHYlN
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*Disclosure: I only recommend products I would use myself and all opinions expressed here are our own. This post may contain affiliate links that at no additional cost to you, I may earn a small commission.
DISCLAIMER: All of Tom's trades, strategies, and news coverage are based on his own opinions alone and are only done for entertainment purposes. If you are watching Tom's videos, please Don't take any of this content as guidance for buying or selling any type of investment or security. Tom Nash is not a financial advisor and anything said on this YouTube channel should not be seen as financial advice. Tom is merely sharing his own personal opinion. Your own results in the stock market or with any type of investment may not be typical and may vary from person to person. Please keep in mind that there are a lot of risks associated with investing in the stock market so do your own research and due diligence before making any investment decisions.
So i'm going to be honest with you, i'm a little bit concerned about the stock market going forward. Despite the recent rally hey, this is tom nash and, as you know, in my videos, the bottom line comes first, i'm a little bit concerned for the stock market. Despite the recent rally because of what's coming next in this video i'll, explain my theory, my thesis and what i'm doing next and as always, don't click, nothing, don't smash nothing and don't buy nothing. If you want to hang out with me for the next five minutes and listen to my ramblings of a madman, let's get this done so russia and ukraine have been at war for the past month, even though russia keeps calling it a military operation.
This is clearly a war and a tough one. Now this is the first time we've seen two sovereign countries in europe going at each other for a full-blown land war. This is insane and the longer it continues. The more uncertainty we're gon na see in the stock market and that's not something to be discounted.
Now it's safe to say that we're all amazed by the ukrainian people, their ferocity and their defense they're, going up against a much bigger, stronger opponent and still they're standing firm and we've been talking a lot about the ukrainian future. The future of russia, but we haven't, talked enough about the future of the stock market. If this war continues now, russia itself is feeling the impacts of this war quite significantly much worse than they initially assumed. Russia is in the sense isolated, almost as if the whole world is waging war against russia right now, economically.
Of course, if you just look at the u.n vote, 141 out of 193 countries voted against russia. The rest abstained, except from north korea, syria, eritrea and belarus. Well, that tells you exactly about how good russia is right. Now, they're, insanely, isolated and they've become the world's most sanctioned country in history.
The ruble is in shambles, inflation is rampaging and don't let those from russian media tell you about how russia is winning this war. Russia is hurting bad, the economy is hurting bad and they're in deep do do, and i guess the real question is what happens to the u.s stock market if ukraine becomes afghanistan 2.0 for russia. Now, just to remind you, russia went to war with afghanistan in the 80s and back then it used to be called the soviet union and the reason it's no longer called the soviet union is because of how much this afghanistan war cost russia or the soviet union. It essentially bankrupted the country.
Now this war is much worse and look. The russian army has already suffered more casualties in a month than they did in the entire time in afghanistan, not to mention the fact this war is costing them a lot of money. They can't afford to pay, they can make noises and posture as if they don't care, but the war is expensive and the longer it continues, the more it becomes a burden on russia and make no mistakes about it right now. It's looking like way closer to a drawn out, months and months of attrition war than the blitzkrieg. Now the blick screen idea fell apart, like a house of cards faster than jerome powell's, transitory assumption, but still if this goes on for months and months and russia goes into shambles what happens to the u.s stock market because don't bet against a regime change in russia. I know a lot of you are looking at mainstream media and all these theories, how putin is going to get overthrown and the regime change is coming democracy, peace with ukraine. Of course, this will be the absolute best outcome for this, but it's very unlikely. The reason is because putin surrounded himself with yes men for the past two decades.
He purged the military. He perished the politics he purged local authorities, he purged the media. There is nobody in his vicinity that would dare to say anything to him. Just go back and look to what putin did to his head of foreign intelligence on live tv for not agreeing with him a hundred percent.
Now you can look at other examples. Look at litvinenko who got poisoned and now he's dead. Look at navalny who had poisoned survived and now in prison putin has completely cleaned the deck. There's nobody left to resist so regime change in russia, i would say, unfortunately, is highly unlikely.
A more likely scenario is some sort of a quasi-roll back to soviet times, an isolated regime controls propaganda, completely closed off and with heavy reliance on china. Now that's where it's headed right now, the problem is it's not going to be a clean break for the west, especially europe, and also the us if russia actually does that and they've been making moves in that direction, purging the media, closing of social media, basically, decoupling From the u.s economies, more recently putin said that they only accept rubles now for russian gas, so it's basically already happening and they're getting cozy with china. So the question is: if that happens, what would be the impact on the u.s stock market? And i got ta be honest with you: it's not good, because look, russia is just a medium-sized economy only about three percent of the world's gdp, despite its massive size, but the problem is that countries like russia, like belarus, they're massive producers of wheat commodities, metals. Anything you can think of add to that ukraine and you get about one quarter of the world's wheat production.
I mean it's gon na have massive impact on the western hemisphere. So, basically, what we're about to get right now is higher quality prices. Higher energy prices. Add that to supply chain shortages coming out from the pandemic and massive inflation because of money printing, you get a recipe for disaster.
Now, look back at history. The prices of oil have been inversely correlated to the s p 500, almost exclusively. Whenever oil goes up, the s p 500 goes down. Whenever all goes down, s p 500 goes up and it makes sense because oil is the building block of everything we do. It's not only gasoline everything we manufacture. Everything we do is based on the cost of energy, and when that unit becomes more expensive, we all get pricked now. The problem is that it's now more likely than not that energy prices are not going to come down anytime, soon, they're going to be around 100 until the foreseeable future. Until we get a peace agreement with russia and ukraine very unlikely uncertain until russia has a regime change, then likely uncertain or until opec decides to help us very likely uncertain because of mbs and saudi arabia's.
Bad relationship with us saudis need something from the us to actually pull the trigger to help us get more supply and reduce the price. So far that hasn't happened, but even without oil, the commodity price is going to drive inflation up. So we're headed into massive inflation and obviously we couldn't predict this war, but now it is what it is. It's part of a reality and now we have to adjust.
It means more cash on the sidelines, bracing for uncertainty and more investment in commodity-based, energy-based businesses. That can roll over cost easily to clients and a good example of that basically would be anything that warren buffett and berkshire hathaway hold in their portfolio. But there are other examples. Now i wouldn't go balls deep into this company right now and completely go all in.
I do want to save money on the sideline, because there's so much uncertainty right now. I just don't know this market is crazy and i want to be ready for everything and again, as always, talk to professional talk to an actual financial advisor, i'm just a guy on the internet. This is not financial advice, it might be. Driving amendment might be completely wrong.
Talk to a professional decide what you want to do next, but let me know below, if you like, this video, if you agree with me, if you disagree with me and if you have any other ideas for kind of uncertainty, friendly investments such as palantir, for example, As always a huge thanks to the channel members and the patreons for supporting this five bucks per month, you can become part of our community. See you next video.
Won’t. Matter over the long term just like Venezuela, Cuba etc the world will move on and find other sources for the goods they provide. To many other countries will see the opp and step up.
I was about to joke how wheat is the new TSLA. But +78.15% this year alone is actually not that funny, that's some r/collapse material.
Speaking of being cautious about the market, I would also put it out there that MJ stocks are taking off based on a vote next week in Congress. I would just caution investors to be careful to not get caught holding the bag. Those driving up the prices from earlier this week will possibly sell the news – good, bad or otherwise, so please just be careful.
Russia getting desperate if the latest news is true. Using White phosphorus.
"It can ignite fast-burning, fast-spreading fires on the ground, and once ignited, white phosphorus is extremely difficult to extinguish. The substance sticks to many surfaces, including skin and clothing."
Wonder if Kathy will sell the ROKU after the position gets cut in half.
Things are never absolutely black and white. Don't get me wrong; Putin's invasion is criminal. BUT: Zelensky has suppressed political parties; journalists there have been silenced; media is now tightly controlled; and then there is something called the Azov battalion (everyone should research what that is). Call it what you like; but whatever we are standing with in Ukraine, it ain't democracy, kiddies.
Tom, what do you make of Russia demanding the EU pay for Russian gas in rubles? Plus Saudi saying China can pay for its oil in yuan? Is this the end of the petrodollar? If so, what’s the fall-out?
When you started talking about Putin’s purging the military over the last couple decades, I couldn’t help but think of President Obama’s two terms and President Biden 12 months.
OOF. This do be seeming pretty painful ngl. I get this kind of information from the New York Times Business page, and Business and Finance paper combined with the WallStreet Journal.
Still awesome to get a perspective from you as always Mr. Nash!
Russia is fielding its JV team. It's a training exercise for a much bigger war. Ask yourself why hasn't Putin deployed the professional soldiers *using conscripts, used its new fighters, its top tier tanks, hasn't launched ANY of it Strategic Bombers…
how can you say all this about the war between ukraine and russia? have you been there? Or are you following media propaganda that no one can verify?
This is not bad news because it’s not true. 🤦♂️🤦♂️ Russia is going to tap out soon and stocks will be fine. Overreaction here
Russia becoming a democracy, replacing China as world's factory.
Best situation for Russia.
Unlikely but it would be beautiful
America should really please stop thinking that democracy and capitalism is a magic cookie cutter solution for all the world's countries. Because it isn't…
Tom, would love to do an interview with you on my channel. Up for it? 😊
Im up over 120% in 2022 already. Im enjoying this market
Sheer up, you were wrong about the invasion too. Under pressure a lot becomes fluid.
Maybe … but the american economy is not nearly as energy intensive as it was back during the oil crisis of the 70's. Also the US stock market has always been a haven in difficut times.
Tom, I highly recommend interviews with Peter Zeihan (former Stratfor analyst). Belarus and Russia are the big exporters of fertilizers (potash in particular). Combining that with the halted export of phosphate based fertilizers from China and the required natural gas for nitrogen containing fertilizer production. We are maybe looking at food shortages (famine?!) not just high prices across the board. P.S. love your vids! xD
I really want to see once in my lifetime that Tom Nash is having good news😁
So you think staying in cash is the best way to hedge yourself rn? I'm in a similar situation, but still thinking whether there's a better way. Berkshire actually might be it, considering that it's green on days when my protfolio is red.
We are going to have a Positive April that will get the S&P back to its Highs. I have 13 things telling me we are going UP from here.
Putin rolled into Pro-Russian territory 8 years ago, where the locals greeted him as their savior. It wasnt that long ago, Ukraine Army said, "Annnnnnd, we out" because they didnt have the locals. Putin thought he could do that in the Pro-West territories of Ukraine with a bunch of Conscripts in old tanks. The Age of the Tank is dead. Been Dead for decades. a 12 year old can destroy the hunk of steel today with ease.
And on top of that, Conscripts are not good soldiers. Its why the USA will never draft again. 20% of all US death in Vietnam were from US guns. Conscripts dont give a F and will kill ANYTHING that keeps them from returning home, enslaved people are like that (like Russia Soldiers in Ukraine, or US soldiers in vietnam)
I think market more or less already crashed, most growth tickers already sold off and are more than 50% from all time highs to adjust for rate hikes and inflation. Big money re-balanced into SPY companies which are generally profitable in high inflation environment. Some even use AAPL as a cash account lol
After the interview you guys had with CodeStrap it’s hard not to just throw cash at PLTR. A couple hundred every payday throughout this market downturn gets my fix. Feeling good even if things are bad.
I have a few comments. 1. even though oil hit $130 it is still lower in inflation adjusted terms than the last time before the great recession. 2. we are way less dependent on oil than before, especially foreign oil. 3. We might pull off the Iran deal and get an extra million barrels in the market. So even though things might get bumpy, it won't be anywhere near as bad as the 1970s. I think that if you are invested in quality companies (Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia Tesla, Facebook, Amazon etc…) that have great margins, and healthy balance sheets and reasonably well diversified you are going to be just fine…
Russian oil is going to India. Pretty sure. At a discount.
I think Russian miscalculation had to do with China. China tells Putin "We've got your back" but secretly China knows this will weaken Russia and pull the west's resources to Europe. A win win for China for sure.
Nobody is wondering why the world is not going to mexico for wheat? … asking for a friend……
I'm not going to bet against the American Market, we have a lot of resources between the US and Canada and Mexico and the issue with oil is somewhat overblown. Fear is a worse factor than the war itself, because if a ww 3 breaks out, it will potentially be nukes and all our money will be worthless 6 feet under! Otherwise, EVs will hedge against oil price increases and will taper the need with time. Buy EV stocks and related stocks as well as some oil stocks. Take a little look at what I have up to find out which ones, I published a list.
no just a guy.. a very smart sir