What the hell is happening? This is a complete disaster. Look at some of these numbers: A firm down 22 percent AMC 19 I Guess Dwack isn't happy anymore after Donald Trump's choices didn't exactly perform as expected and therefore what happens to wax down 17 Robin Hood's down 13. Disney 12 Redfin 12 After layoffs and getting out of the home flipping business this morning, matterport down to two dollars and sixty cents Tesla's down like 5.6 to 180 bucks I I Don't even think it's recognized how crazy that is. The lows Tesla hit this summer was about 635 dollars and I remember everybody making fun of me because I was on vacation. People like, every time Kevin goes on vacation, the market crashes. Okay, well, 180 is now the equivalent of 540. In other words, almost an entire 100 hundred dollars cheaper for Tesla stock than the lows that we saw this summer. This is a complete disaster and at the same time. And this is just the most weird part about all of this at the same time as this is actually Market capitulation is happening. Margin calls are without a doubt happening at the same time. What is the fear index or volatility index? Tell us? Oh, don't worry, volatility is only up 1.8 percent. And don't worry, it's nothing outside of the range of normalcy over here and it's certainly nowhere near to the capitulation levels that we've seen of March of 2020. and of course January Well, I'm sorry, uh December of 2018 and earlier in 2018. these we we are at like no fear levels. It's remarkable how low the fear levels. are right now, and it's kind of scary because it's leading a lot of folks to say the real capitulation comes when that volatility index spikes and then we just get wiped out. You have any debt, you're wiped out, you're done. So what is happening and that's what we have to talk about in this video. No, it's not the Black Friday coupon codes. It is a host of disasters. So I'm going to list these because we've got about six issues that we've got to talk about. When we understand these, they'll give us a lot more clarity. Issue Number One: Earnings Complete Disaster. This was expected Not Only was this expected though. but remember that Goldman Sachs believes that the stock market tends to bottom about six three to six months before the bottom of earnings. Remember Goldman Sax believes the bottom of the market occurs six to nine months before an earnings bottom. So yes, even though earnings reports are coming in bad, the bottom of the stock market does tend to come before the bottom in earnings. The problem is, earnings are just now starting to turn. So what if we're potentially a year away from the bottom in corporate earnings? Well, that might mean we have another six months of pain to go. And so folks are realizing. This is the kind of Market where the one thing you cannot do is call bottom because as soon as you say this is the bottom you just get reamed. You get punished so hard and Daddy Powell likes it hard. He ain't stopping with the remage and it's bad. So the earnings disaster will continue to be felt until we are within six to nine months of the bottom of earnings. and we have no idea where the bottom of earnings are going to be right now. That is scary. That creates fear, uncertainty and doubt. A fear, uncertainty and doubt is exactly why Bank of America reported net outflows across the board of all of their investors on average last week that's institutional and Retail net outflows people are getting out now. It would make sense to get out before this week. Why? Because not only do we have a crazy amount of earnings which so far have just been miss missed look at ROBLOX look at a firm, look at Disney You've got disasters across the board and leading indicators suggesting that people are getting ready to spend less money. Even a firm said in their earnings call that hey, it seems like wealthier people still have some excess cash that they're spending right now. The lower incomes are already out of their extra stimulus cash, the higher income still has some money. But what happens when that goes away? Well, people probably spend less now. A firm thinks more people will borrow, but a fair firm also has this like mental mind trickery that their default rates aren't going to go up and I think they're smoking something that ain't legal right now. So and if it gets you put in a Russian concentration camp. That is a true story too. Anyway, so earnings complete disaster. The election, not the gridlock we were expecting. The only gridlock we have right now is in counting ballots and we're still nail biting as to whether or not the house will actually go Republican The expectation is that it will, but it's still a nail biter because there is a chance that Democrats maintain control. The stock market wanted gridlock, and we don't actually know with certainty yet that we're going to have that gridlock. So investors rightfully so and understandably so, are saying the same thing that they said last week: why would I buy stocks right before what could be bad earnings and they were right before an election which could go bad. Definitely hasn't gone good yet for the stock market and I say good sort of in air quotes because it depends on your political party and stuff. But for the stock market, we're expecting gridlock and we don't have that answer yet. And why would you buy stocks the day before? CPI This is expected to be the most dirty CPI Report possible, not only because it's actually like the estimates for the CPI are kind of high, but if we go dirty on this CPI report, the S P 500 according to JPMorgan will probably drop a solid five percent pretty much instantaneously, and that's scary. Nobody wants that. Not only does nobody want that, but take a look at the estimates. Okay now I have I have some hope, but this Market's not one to have hope in. Here are the estimates for inflation: Remember tomorrow the CPI report comes out I will be live at 5 30 a.m in the morning and I promise I will be pitching the coupon code link down below below because I need money to buy this dip And in response I promise you the best quality and more lectures I could provide especially for the new business course on the Elite Hustlers course and then also after I finish that course which should be done in a couple days I'm moving over to do new lectures for the other courses because I'm just going to keep providing value in this hell of a market. and uh, have faith that when you provide value, people buy it and people enjoy it. and so far people are so thank you for signing up. Now this is the forecast month over month point six year over year 7.9 Core CPI 0.5 and CPI year over year 6.5 now I Actually think those numbers are relatively High I think we we might be able to actually beat those. and uh, the JP Morgan scenarios are as follows: If we get CPI coming in at over 8.4 percent, they think the stock Market the S P will fall anywhere between four and a half to six percent. if which they think there's a 30 chance of we get an 8.1 to 8.3 percent speed. so slightly hot. They think the S P 500 will go down two to three percent if we get with a forty percent chance according to JPM uh print of basically ad expectations so 7.9 to eight we might see the S P 500 rally one to one point five percent. that'd be cool. 20 chance only that it'll actually come in below. Actually this this includes at so 25 chance here that we see inflation come in at or below the print which would be freaking awesome and they think that cyclicals RK uh, whatever will be the best performers. and uh, you'll see the S P 500 rally anywhere between two and a half to five percent. So okay, cool. But again, if we look at sort of the the bulk likelihood that's probably going to be somewhere between a plus one percent day to minus three percent day. so any in other words anything can happen now. I'm hopeful that this CPI print Trends down and these are the estimates on the month over month basis from all the Banks One of the things you're going to notice, this is for Core and this is for the month over month. One of the things you're going to notice here on the month over month is that most of these are are relatively in line at 0.6 percent with the actual Economist estimates. Though we do have some people suggesting point five percent. I'm surprised by that because I was really thinking we'd be somewhere closer to point four percent and notice how there's nobody saying that I don't know I mean maybe I'm just overly hopeful and maybe that'll be a mistake now. Unfortunately, expectations for inflation are not doing what we want them to do. Not only are consumer expectations for inflation trending up, we just got word that they moved up to 5.1 expectations in the next 12 months. This is bad, but we also this is up from Point or five Point uh, 5.0 percent last month, but we also are seeing the market. This is sort of your chart of inflation. Expectations clearly suggests the strong Trend up here of inflation break evens, which means expectations for inflation are fortunately becoming looser and untrenched unentrenched. Which is bad because if if the expectations loosen up and they're no longer firm, they start Rising The FED has to get more aggressive. In fact, you had Tom Barkin come out this morning and said look, the process of the economy getting into balance is going to be lengthy. He says there'll be a slow return to normal inflation, but unfortunately, that slower term threatens expectations and we cannot let expectations rise. That's something he made Crystal Clear even though he personally believes inflation sort of like on the back end, like we're on that down curve, he thinks the length of time it takes could really hurt the economy. so in other words, buckle up. In fact, he went as far as saying look, we're starting to see pain in advertising and some consumer discretionary. We're just starting to basically see layoffs. But what happens on page four of the recessionary? Playbook Like we're not even at that world yet in those levels? Somewhat kind of suggesting that we might end up half having to be at those levels if inflation doesn't come down, which is pretty scary. Not only is that scary, but another thing that's scary is Mr Nikki leaks over at of course the Wall Street Journal coming out and as usual giving us some more bad news suggesting that investors bet the FED could lift rates to a two-year high with now more investors suggesting that possibility of a Fed funds rate as high as six percent could happen. And this is a level that we have not seen since just before the.com bust in 2000. And it's one that could spell far more pain ahead for stocks and bonds. Yikes. In fact, you even get comments here. It's really hard to see any progress on inflation in the next four or five months. I Mean that's not very bullish. So now all of a sudden if you're asking yourself, man, why are things so freaking dirty in the market right now Well, you have to think about it. Number One: Earnings disaster. Number Two Elections Disaster Number Three: Expectations that CPI is going to be a poop show Number four: Nikki Leaks suggesting we're going up to six percent. We call them Nikki leaks because he's kind of like the Wikileaks guy who you know gets internal information and then makes it public. except this internal information tends to be in the form of a text message from the Federal Reserve directly to this guy. Nick And then he posted on the Wall Street Journal I Wonder how much the FED is sponsored for by Uh by The Wall Street Journal On top of that, Number five, you have the crypto rut which is in a complete disaster right now. The collapse of FTX is terrible I Don't think anybody saw that coming. The uh, you know, Jerome Powell of the crypto Market FTX is basically bankrupt. The emperor has no clothes. This is like disgusting and it was very unexpected. So BTC actually taking another leg down right now? Now down to 16-2 Uh, quite frankly, you know if this keeps falling and it ends up going sub 10 000 I think you're gonna potentially see a crisis over at uh uh at Um Binance as well. you're going to see margin calls. You're going to see bankruptcies. Tesla's now down seven percent. the Market's falling into the close. Uh, this is disgusting. This is a very disgusting time and yet seriously, the Vix The Fear index is at 1.64 This is so messed up like nothing makes sense. and unfortunately, if the market only bottoms when the Vix spikes, we have more pain ahead now. I'm gonna give a little optimistic note in just a moment. although optimism doesn't feel appropriate right now. I'm gonna do it anyway. But first. I Gotta say there could be another problem that's happening. It's the sixth reason that's happening. It's called tax loss harvesting. This is actually somewhat of the perfect time if you have made any money this year to look at your portfolio and go, oh look, you made five hundred thousand dollars, sell five hundred thousand dollars in losses of stocks. Talk to your CPA see you in 30 days and then just re-buy your stocks. Now how much higher are stocks really going to be in 30 days? I Don't know. Do we think stocks are going to double in 30 days? Probably not. Do we think stocks are going to go up at 50 in 30 days? Probably not. Maybe. I Mean, if the election, uh, if the Republicans take the house, CPI comes in way low. Sure, it's possible, but it's possible. Probable. No. And without that, Vic Spike We might not actually have that full flushed out capitulation yet. So what do you have? You have a complete disaster that's detached from fundamentals. This is not a story about Tesla fundamentally sucking. For example. Well, that may be true and I don't believe that it is. This is a story of a liquidity crunch. When the crypto Market collapses, crypto becomes more desirable to buy by some people who actually think that's a good idea. and so they put less buying pressure on stocks and they go by crypto. which leads to lower prices on stocks. When certain stocks go down like Robin Hood or coinbase, those become more attractive than others and so there's less buying pressure on others like Tesla. When Tesla goes down, Tesla becomes more attractive than others and more people buy Tesla than than the others. But then it all still sinking down and then it's kind of like wait a minute. Why am I buying during a disastrous earnings week? We still don't have the election results and CPI is coming out tomorrow and Nikki Leaks is suggesting six percent and we've got the EPS recession and we could see more crypto bankruptcies and I may as well be tax loss harvesting. T That doesn't give you a lot of confidence in buying right now. with the exception of course of buying the stocks, the psychology of Money program, or the zero to millionaire real estate course or getting into that business Hustlers Course, that's a good idea because you want to be making money at the bottom market so you can invest now. Oh, don't want to say bottom, but anyway, where is some potential optimism? All of these things could U-turn all. but again, hope is not an investing strategy I've said that all year long and I've been too hopeful myself. Oh well, it is what it is. Mistakes were made, good decisions were made, bad decisions were made. But so is life. So could things turn around and go. Very peachy and beautiful? Absolutely. I Am very hopeful that you will visit me tomorrow at 5 30 a.m and we will see the most glorious inflation numbers ever and the end to the Federal Reserve's pain and those will be corroborated in December We'll see inflation here. You want my prediction? I'll give you my prediction just like Ben Muller Imma write it down. This is my prediction. This is the first time I feel like I I don't I don't actually think I've predicted lower before on the numbers I've been been pretty bearish. Uh, on on the actual CPI Prints but this time I'ma Do it all right. we're gonna write down my CP live prediction I Think as I said earlier in the video, we're gonna see a 0.4 month over month. Okay, then on the headline number I actually think we're going to be at 7.7 This would be quite bullish now. I Don't think it'll actually hold up into any kind of real sustained rally because these numbers I mean we'll see Green if we got this, but this is still 4.8 percent. Uh, that inflation is rising? Uh, on an annualized basis? That's terrible. That's still terrible. Anything over that is even more terrible. But it's going to create a little bit of pause in the market that wait a minute. Maybe this is the beginning of the end, uh, of tightening. And then we get the December numbers. and if in December we need the two months which we get before the next Fed report. If we could get two months of an inflection down where expectations are here, maybe maybe the Santa Claus rally is still possible. But short of that, Sani ain't coming. You're getting a lump of coal. And if you're a short seller, enjoy your wine and champagne. Now, because as soon as that U-turn happens, you're gonna get smoked really fast. and you're going to see margin calls in the opposite direction when the short sellers get smoked. Now I Don't want to see anybody get smoked if you're a short seller. That's okay. I Just want you to be prepared to transition fast. Okay, because when those numbers change, the Market's going to change fast. All right, that's all. Good luck.