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Hey this is tom and, as always, don't click nothing, don't smash nothing and don't buy nothing. Now. The only thing i ask of you is just to listen. Now in today's video i'm gon na try to take a stab at some really complicated questions.
Question number one: did putin shoot himself in the foot with the ukrainian invasion, i mean if he had a delorean and he can go back in time with doug brown. Would he have completely axed this plan and question number two, given the fact that we're in this mess, together with vlad, basically, what would a win over putin? Look, like i mean, is it overthrowing putin? Is it some sort of other solution? What is this win? We're? Looking for how would it look like okay? So if you stay with me, grab some coffee grab a beer, and let's do this so when putin started this, he had four goals. One was to replace the government kick out, zelinski put victory on kovic and i'm going to talk about victor in the coverage in a second because he's a very interesting character. Number two demilitarize ukraine, or the very least you know - make them neutral not ever ever.
Join nato there's some water issues between crimea and the separatists and ukraine, and obviously you know, stop the tensions between ukraine and the separatist areas of luganski daniels can let everybody just be now. Those are the four stated goals out of those four, the two main ones. Obviously, are you know, kick out zilenski government and completely denato or demilitarize ukraine? Now let me explain who he wants instead of zelinski, because this is interesting before we go into the analysis. He wants victory on the coverage.
Now. Viktor nikovich is a very interesting character. Viktor nikovich was already ousted twice as the president of ukraine, so it's a very long track record with these people and not a very good one. He's definitely put this guy he's very similar to lokashenko from belarus.
Former soviet union operator born in the 1950s blah blah blah. He also like lukashenko flirted with the west and the eu a little bit, but then, when uncle vlad called and said nada, he basically said: okay, okay, the thing is: lukashenko survived that and yanukovych got kicked out. For that i mean his people didn't like him pulling out out of the you know: eu talks and the west talks and they kicked him out in 2014 and ever since you know he's been hiding in russia or belarus trying to come back now. Can putin reinstate this guy? Well, it's a very difficult question, because putin is in a tough spot right now.
Let me explain the problem. Is that putin doesn't have a lot of friends left i mean he's been pretty much canceled. I don't think he estimated the importance of canceled culture in 2022. Now the thing is that we just saw lately that you know they just voted in the u.n and the u.n never agrees on anything i mean literally that's the whole purpose of the un.
They always argue, 141 countries basically said hey you're an for doing this to ukraine. The only countries that voted for him are belarus, eritrea, syria and north korea - and maybe i forgot a few more, but i don't think so. If that's the kind of bunch, that's supporting you, it's pretty much like you know, tell me you completely screwed up your politics game without telling me you screwed up your politics game, i mean that's a really tough spot to bend politically he's completely isolated. Now the problem isn't the u.n, because that thing is not operative. It's just a decision. That means nothing now the real problem that putin completely miscalculated the way china and germany are going to react to this. Now china is kind of debatable still because they're kind of on the fence about it. I get it, but i'll argue that even that is worse than he expected now.
Germany is the real kick to the nuts. Germany was pretty much his ping pong. He basically decided to do whatever he wants to do and he knew because they need his gas they're. Gon na follow through and protect them now the problem is that you can only push a country around so much with ultimatums of grandma freezing in the basement.
So much at some point i mean these are germans. These are proud people, so they pretty much said: hey nine. It's done we're calling you bluff, no more we're not playing these games, we don't with what you're doing and we're pretty much out, and if you want to shut down the gas we dare you now. They basically called his bluff because he needs their money just as bad as they need his gas, but for the longest time he acted like he's the bull in the story.
Now mainly, the thing that he didn't calculate is how much germany is going to flip on this mother lover, because what they did beyond just you know stopping nordstrom 2, which was a huge move. They actually said well we're going to arm ourselves to the teeth. The most pacifistic country in europe in the past 80 years is basically now spending 100 billion dollars on military plus 2 of the gdp every year. This is amounts that we haven't seen since ever i mean this is germany for god's sakes, so yeah.
So germany is arming against him and they're going to diversify themselves out of his gas, because they've just seen what he tried to do so he's losing on the germany front in every possible way. He didn't understand how horrible of a reaction he's gon na get from germany simply put. Germany was the key to all of this story and they came out way bigger than anybody expected kudos. Now, as far as the us and eu, they had a very difficult task.
Isolate putin do not start world war iii very delicate, and yet they seem to have done a good job. So far, putin seems to be completely isolated, economically and politically, and even when he started talking about nuclear weaponry and raising his alerts and whatever they didn't flinch, they called this bluff and it was 100 accurate, good play for them. But i'm going to be honest with you, even if this is a bluff. This is some scary. I mean his nuclear threats are not actually that easy to ignore, because we're talking about some world destruction now look the more he gets desperate the more he gets irresponsible. The scarier this becomes - and i can't believe, i'm having this conversation in 2022, but we can't just ignore it and sit around the campfire and you know sing kumbaya. This is some serious now, as far as putin goes, this isn't a tough spot. On the one hand, he's isolated economically politically and his campaign in ukraine is not going as planned.
Now he wanted to basically siege ukraine scare, the government away get the army ukrainian army, that is to put down their arms and just put his man in yanukovych and leave that didn't happen. His logistics are trash. His rickety army is stuck in the mud. Logistics are horrible he's not even able to do that.
Ukrainian army is fighting back. These partisans are basically blowing his tanks to smithereens he's stuck and every day this war costing him a lot of money and as the work costing him a lot of money, his bank is basically blocked and locked out out of foreign currency. He has to make a decision fast. He doesn't have a lot of time because eventually he literally will run out of money.
I don't think you understand how bad things in rush right now for the ordinary guys. I mean it's pretty tough. I mean there's no atms. The money is completely gone, the currency is basically dead and the government is now mandating people with dollars in any type of forex to completely convert it to rubles at least 80 of it.
The stock market has been closed since the beginning of the week i mean the credit rating of russia is junk right now, no money in the atms. The government is literally mandating people to convert to rubles if they have any forex, because the national bank is literally locked out of the foreign accounts and things are getting really bad on the ground. The question is: will it be enough to overthrow putin? What would a win over putin? Look like again, i'm not a military strategist. I don't understand nothing about no-fly zones and tanks and none of this stuff.
I don't understand about that. I'm talking about a political win and i mean you don't want to push him too far. You have to remember he's sitting on the scary button with nukes and you never know what a desperate person would do. I don't know i don't want to take that chance.
So how do you solve this well? You'll have to find a way to allow him a ladder to climb down from his tree, and in that case, a possible compromise would be to let the government stay as is, but have assurance as 100. That ukraine would never join nato and will always be neutral. And also allow some independence or some sort of an autonomy for lugansk and donetsk, and that will allow putin to achieve some of his goals, but not the one he really wants emotionally emotionally. He wants zelinski gone. He hates that lover, but here's the problem. You can't get at all and if they give him everything else as far as no military, no nato and basically independence to lugansk and thenesque. That's a pretty sweet deal with him at this point because he's really stuck in the mud literally now i don't know, what's going to happen, i have no idea. This is kind of my logic around this story.
I hope this was helpful for you. Let me know in the comments, if you agree or disagree, if you disagree, it's fine as well see you tomorrow.
its the perfect time for the Russians to revolt & Russian army to practice mutiny.
Putin has no method to pull back since the stupid error has been made, even he changes his mind. To prevent Russia collapse, separate Ukraine to two parts by Dnieper river or something like that, Russia take/merge the east part, free the west part.
Be careful here…
Especially in the "metric" that you use to judge the "success" of this "operation".
For example…consider this;
Maybe the point of Putin's adventure into Ukraine is not solely to take ground?
Maybe it's to create a "refugee crisis" Europe can't handle…
Remember Poland isn't exactly noted for its largest in that matter…
(In fairness to Poland they have not necessary lived down to Putin thinking there, bless them)
That said things are only getting started…millions are going to come…
(and not just the 5 million Europe is expecting)
Divide and conquer the order of the day in Putin's mind at least.
Just be careful…thankfully most people 'blessed' with machiavellian minds contain the monster inside…but not all.
Putin has the "dark triad" personality traits…he must be stopped at all costs.
Hey Tom since you know so much and are an Expert on Ukraine now how about you go back and look at some headlines from 2014
The west needs Russian resources and markets. This conflict will end once Putin achieves his aims, then everyone will sit around a table, sanctions will be lifted, and the present Ukrainian govt will be sidelined. Putin will have cleansed (in his view) all the radical elements from Ukraine, restoring an unarmed vassal state while the west has to support millions of displaced people, some of whom will resent (in their view) the west's lack of real action to save their homes, futures and country. In the long run, Putin comes off best….. I take no satisfaction in this, and I hope I'm wrong but I think not.
I am not in favor or war, family suffers for generations … I am with Ukraine and also Russian soldiers…. I am not OK with EU, NATO and US leaders they are as much at fault as Putin
Yeah, German are proud ppl – WW1 and WW2 is to be very proud of. They are very ….
The common citizen in Russia may be given the key to end this. If it comes down to having a future or keeping Putin, this could end with. Russian democracy. Hell even a new member of NATO. ๐ in first principle thinking… One man should not have this power for decades. Power corrupts. We must change political systems to outlaw leaders for life. It could be a UN resolution and requirement to belong to UN. hey why not
Putin never started this in first place. Simply put this way TOM, EU has been playing very dirty all the time….. War is never one way, someone provokes and you know who did … I am losing respect for your critics. Do not just say because you hate RUSSIA. I wish educated brilliant people use their brain …
What I find so interesting is the hate heaped on the average Russian who had nothing at all to do with this "military action". I hear it everywhere, look at the comments to this or any video. In Canada we have seen Russian Orthodox churches sprayed with paint, and radio and tv hosts shouting at the top of their lungs Ukraine good, Russia (ns) bad. Clearly they haven't heard of the Azov Battalion. Where were they when the US attacked Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan on the flimsiest of pretenses? The rank hypocrisy is enough to make one sick. In regards to Ukraine was it not the West who led Ukraine down the "primrose path" with unfulfilled intimations of Western integration. Now they are only too willing to have good Ukrainians and Russians killed in a meatgrinder while they "feed the beast" with arms. F*** these warmongers.
Generations of westerners have been brainwashed to believe Russia is bad, bad, bad. Putin is merely pushing back against NATO/NWO Globalists. War is always the worst case scenario, but Putin had no choice. Mother Russia will reabsorb its errant children and Russia will be Great Again.
Hope it works out as you painted a great picture and it may be the best win possible anything less will be horrible for Ukraine
For Germany having Russian natural gas only meant having cheap natural gas, and Germany can afford paying more, which is what they finally decided to do. Great.
And did you know that Nord Stream AG in Zug, Switzerland filed bankrupcy yesterday? Things seem to play out quickly now.
Greetings from Switzerland, and all the best to Ukranian and Russian people!
I appreciate these casual discussions on Russia/Ukraine, I hope you keep making them as the conflict continues
Loved the narrative about giving Putin a ladder to climb down from this tree that he got himself up to.
Do you and your audience even know what happened in 2014 there? The US and the west installed a puppet gov in and they have been raping the Ukrainian economy ever since. Never mind the fact Ukraine never honored the Minsk Agreement and have been killing ethnic Russians in Ukraine for years now. No wonder pedo Joe is talking tough, him and his son have massive corrupt business dealings over there. The sheep are so dumbed down the oligarchs can do whatever they want. This is all planned by the owners of this world. Putin is part of the club also. WEF Young Global Leader class of "92…..
Macron was talking about 90 minutes with Putin today – the result: Putin continues in his plan to conquer the entire Ukraine. After this talk Macron released to the press that he is very pessimistic about a diplomatic solution. Therefore my perspective is that Putin has to face the full reality of economic and political consequences. This will cause a huge damage and decline in Russia. This will fill him up with pathologic anger and nostalgia even more. Putin will isolate himself in his bunker mentality even more. China will try to contain him and take its own benefits from Russia's isolation. Finally Putin will have become the useful idiot for China, who has to sell the resources of Russia to China for a very low price.
Not only did Russia shoot itself in the foot but it's foot was in it's mouth at the time ! Very sad for everyone.
I feel more is going on. Putin is smarter than all this. He doesn't strike me as a hail Mary guy. He had to have planned for this. If not…well then he is an idiot
Literally everything he said in this video was incorrect and Iโm American even I know that. Even worse than his financial advice
Tom, be honest. Tell if Russia can afford NATO nuclear missiles in Ucraine?
Did America aloude USSR missiles on Cuba? I jus want truth, forget propaganda
Got my beer ๐ป
Love to your Lada & grandpa.
German said f.u. ๐ Well done burocrocy.
I'm in France, everyone is talking EV, cause petrol/diesel โฌโฌ is going nuts.
Mr Nash. What do you think on call for foreign nationals to come and fight . seen to me many on former east Germany n Poland see need to stop a tyrant now. A call for a people's war if governments not will
Reallly enjoying your coverage of this situation, you are literally answering the questions I have been asking myself.
I don't know, Tom. It's all bad. All the invasions in the past were terrible, and yes the U.S./NATO are hypocritical, but right now killing is happening, and all the ordinary people all over the place are going to get screwed even worse than they already are. People in the area are literally being killed intentionally, and I don't see how these actions can possibly go without terrible long-term consequences.
I think the best thing Putin can do at this point is say he thought they wanted to be part of Russia. Admit he was wrong, pay reparations and move-on. I like the Russian people and think they are genuine no BS people. It's really sad. I thought Russia had turned a corner and had the potential to eventually become one of the largest economies in the world. Unfortunately this move has set Russia back decades not just economically, but in trust and respect.
I just scratched off Putin from my Christmas Card list . That will show him . Thanks 4 your take on this demented dictator. Enjoy your channel Tom .
I don't think Putin should get anything. In fact I think Crimea should go back to Ukraine. The parallels to Hitler annexing Austria are just too clear. The world cannot continue to turn a blind eye to his behavior.