Hey everyone meet kevin here, so you all know how i always say: buy tsla and don't buy a tesla. So i i didn't listen uh to myself, because at the end of last year i was going to make a very, very big, stupid purchase. I'm glad i didn't make it, it would have cost me many millions. I need to make a video on it one day so anyway, i bought that.

Instead, i did, as i said, not to do. I bought the tesla model, s plat and uh. What's ironic, is this tesla model s plat has actually lost less value than tesla's stock uh yeah. So let's talk a little bit because the market obviously is going nuts here on the uh, ukraine and russia crisis, and a lot of folks are asking me kevin.

When does this end, and what does this mean going forward, and so that's what we're going to talk about? First, we're going to talk about how deep this can get where we are in the potential cycle of this heading down how much further we potentially have to go. Then uh we're going to talk about whether or not it makes sense to get out now and stand by and then get back in and what this also means for the federal reserve and inflation uh. It's actually not going to be what you expect so uh, let's, let's channel a little bit all right. So the first thing that we got to understand is we are about midway down on a correction cycle for uh, a geopolitical crisis like what's happening with russia and ukraine uh.

That means s p down. Ten percent is potentially only about halfway there, which means we have potentially another 10 to go so whatever losses you've had in in other stocks, maybe maybe you have another double whatever you've lost so far to go, no guarantees. You know. I don't want to sound like a mr fudd fear-monger or whatever, but that's just historically, when we look at like what happened with crimea and uh georgia we're about midpoint on the way down.

Now it probably doesn't include today yet so maybe we can shave off the two percent from today, but uh it sucks if we actually get an invasion. The biggest loser here, i think, is going to be the spy uh spy related stocks, uh, the nasdaq and so on. It's just gon na suck small caps, profit less tech. Honestly, it doesn't matter.

It's just we're. Just gon na have more indiscriminate selling, which is also a sign of margin, calls people just getting destroyed because look i've been saying since november, get the hell out of margin do not be in margin. This market is way too uncertain. Valuations were nuts in november.

We knew that uh and uh in december and january. I reiterated these calls get out of options get out of unless you're short and get out of margin. Hopefully, you have because the margin calls are gon na, drag this market down even further, and i think the same is likely to happen with uh cryptocurrencies, because there is a lot of debt outstanding in cryptocurrencies, much more so than actually traditional finance. Although i will say, btc has not been performing as terribly as as a lot of tech stocks, so yeah kind of crazy, but maybe it's the calm before the storm.

So, if we're midpoint in the cycle on the downside, if we get an actual invasion here, do expect more pain. So, in my opinion, if you are on the side of there will be an invasion uh. I think it's okay to nibble, but i i don't think you want to blow your cash. You certainly don't want to go into margin if you uh do not believe there is going to be an invasion, and you think this is all hype and hysteria western hysteria.

You think we're going to end up having some sort of negotiated diplomacy. Maybe russia takes the separatist areas, uh area, these two regions uh on the eastern front, and this creates enough of a buffer zone for russia to be happy that, even if ukraine were to enter nato or kiev to enter nato, which now there's even a call that Just the capital going to nato and not the rest of the country. If you believe that russia will be happy with this, and this will create enough of a buffer zone, then uh, then then uh and we'll have some sort of negotiated uh diplomacy here and the sanctions will actually start working, which is relatively unlikely uh, then uh, then Maybe you do take advantage of going larger on buying a step now so uh. This comes down to your belief.

Personally i would say i would lean towards we're we're probably going to see a fuller invasion here within the next week. I don't know, but just seeing what we've seen so far, i don't see a reason why there would not be and uh ironically, and i just tweeted this follow me on twitter. Yet if you don't follow me there, i just tweeted that for every dollar oil goes up. Russia increases their oil revenues by two billion dollars annually.

So if oil goes up uh ten dollars - which i mean it just went up like twenty dollars so for a year to date and another like forty dollars before that - or maybe not quite forty dollars - another twenty thirty dollars before that uh every ten dollars is 20 Billion dollars of additional annual revenue for russia uh, you know, maybe what is that? One point two one point three per per month, actually a little more uh, whatever you get the idea so uh russia, ironically, is benefiting off of increasing oil costs, which is wild and the sanctions that are targeted at russia. I think, are quite misguided. There is a belief that the two banks, the military bank and the the other bank - you can't remember the vbe or whatever that was sanctioned yesterday - there's a belief that they hold about 80 billion dollars in u.s denominated assets. But beyond that we know that russia holds very few treasuries, so i just really don't see these sanctions doing anything.

Boris johnson in the united kingdom has been substantially made fun of in the united kingdom. I mean the financial times was laughing at him this morning about what they called his peace, shooter sanctions, it's like here's, russia with tanks and he's just it's stupid, uh and - and i want to be clear when i laugh it's not to be misconstrued as as uh You know being happy about this at all: it's not it's just there's political commentary or joking around that can be funny, but beyond that you're still dealing with people's lives and it's terrible what's happening so big issues, big issues, uh now, one of the things that comes After this is the fear that this could potentially lead to an inflationary shock now this depends ordinarily, and this has been my position ordinarily, yes, we would be heading towards an inflationary shock if oil continues to rise uh. You know we get an increase of ten dollars in the price of oil. We could see cpi bump uh, half a percent just from oil.

That doesn't even consider the fact that in the last video i did, i just broke down how much we have seen. Uh every single commodity get more expensive. Wheat iron ore, steel, uh, soybeans, coffee, you name it year-to-date! Every commodity is skyrocketing. I mean sheets of plywood.

Are like 50 freaking dollars now it's insane anyway real estate references, so things are getting more expensive, not less expensive. The problem, though that could happen is if we do end up in an extended uh crisis between russia and ukraine. We actually will probably see demand plummet in the united states because of fear fear of war and when what we know folks, when aggregate demand goes down, the wage price spiral goes away, inflation goes away and you could actually end up with a more dovish fed. Now this is where the weird balance is for the fed.

If we have a short crisis with ukraine and russia, and we spike oil and oil stays expensive and we go back to a booming economy, then we end up with long-lasting inflation. The fed's going to have to vote for us they'll have to force a recession when we have a wage price spiral. If we end up getting a protracted or severe crisis with ukraine and russia, and we actually end up sapping demand, because people are fearful, then that fear could actually lead rates to come down. Maybe not necessarily all the way down, but it could actually lead rates not to continue skyrocketing uh.

It could lead the fed to relax and thanks to chill out which, if the fed relaxes and maybe bond yields relax, which they do during periods of conflict, we actually see bond deals like the 10 year go down because more people are fleeing to safety, they're buying The bonds more people buy the bonds. What happens the bond yield goes down, 10-year yield goes down real estate, mortgage rates go down, and you actually now remove the potential fear that you could have a real estate-induced crisis. Maybe you just end up with a stock market crisis, so there are a lot of scenarios here and what i would do, if i were you is, i would map all of what i just set out. So i would draw a picture and i would say: do i believe that russia is going to invade yes or no? If the answer is yes, then don't blow all your money yet, but definitely be out of debt and margin and start saving money right cut your expenses at home.

You should have been doing this already. I've been saying this for months when i was first sold, everybody was making fun of me if i had not sold my 20 million portfolio, which is cash uh, not including real estate, and all the other things uh would would be like 14 right now. Okay, like things have gotten rough, and we saw this coming, the writing was on the wall. Yeah sure do.

I wish i got out a little earlier duh, but we didn't know. The fed was gon na rug, pull us until january 5th and then took a couple weeks to process the new information, so it sucks but anyway, so i'd write down. Is russia going to invade? If you think yes don't blow everything yet, if no, if you think this is just hysteria, maybe you buy the dip a little bit, but then you have the second thing you have to weigh this with and that is: is inflation transitory? Is it actually going to go away if inflation goes away the fed the way the fed thinks it does, and we don't go into a recession then again, maybe this is your geopolitical opportunity to buy the div. I mean the spy just bounced off of the zero percent fibonacci retracement line of about 420 421.

It's insane we're back to the january lows. Uh and many stocks are even substantially worse than the january lows. I hate to say it, but you look at matterport. So fi uh robin hood tesla.

These companies are all way down and i had good holdings in these companies they're all way down. Uh since i sold it's just 30 to 50, it's horrible, so uh. So then, on the other side of the chart, you ask yourself about inflation. If inflation is something you think is transitory use this event and we don't want to pray for it because we don't want anybody to die, that's bad, we don't want disaster.

But financially you look at this and you say this is a buy opportunity if you think inflation's actually going to get worse and more lasting from this, depending on how severe that crisis is uh in in ukraine, uh and russia. How long it lasts will determine how it affects inflation for the long term again, if we have a long crisis long incursion, potentially that could actually lead inflation to go down as people stop spending money because there's war happening, i don't know or if you think it's Not going to affect people's spending, people are going to spend less. You know, don't worry about the fact that lemonade misses earnings by one penny and drops 15 cents. Don't worry about the fact that ebay misses earnings and drops 10 because they're reducing their forecasts for buyers and sellers over the next year, then again, that's just ebay right.

This doesn't necessarily neither of these things necessarily mean people are going to spend less money. Just kind of throwing them out there because the market is really aggressive with earnings business right now you know, i guess. Ultimately you have to figure out what you want to do, but this is my thesis. These are the things that i'm evaluating right now.

There is no clear cut answer. There is no right or wrong answer here. You know i i don't want to make this video see. I tell you so i was right.

I mean like there's so many things going on here. You just have to put the pieces together and determine for yourself. What's the best thing for you now remember if you want to join me and get all my buy, sell alerts to see as i'm buying in make sure to check out the stocks and psychology of money program link down below and of course, if you want to Join me in those daily live streams. Uh any of the courses that you buy link down below will get you access.

You can use that coupon code down below uh also the wealthpath uh has had like 40 or 50 new lectures uploaded this week. So a lot of good stuff and i'd love to see there thanks so much and uh i got ta. Go now see ya. Bye,.