Biden Donald Trump to Santas Do some we've got to talk election 2024 and what they recent Wall Street Journal poll is suggesting about favorability ratings. For example, Donald Trump's favorability ratings have recently fallen in March they were as high as 85 percent amongst Republicans Now they're down to about 74. Some here are blaming Donald Trump's fraud criminal case that he lost. This is for the Trump organization, not Donald Trump Personally, some others are blaming Donald Trump's poor performance in the midterm elections.

Now of course, the Trump campaign selectively chooses candidates and says, look, this candidate won because we endorsed them and then they say other candidates were not endorsed and lost. But the reality is, in the midterm election, Donald Trump had over 500 different endorsements and a Trump candidates won 224 of 241 primary races and 208 out of 254 general ones. That's pretty good, right? But I guess it? It doesn't really matter if you're endorsing somebody in a non-competitive state. For example, Donald Trump endorsing Rand Paul in Kentucky doesn't really give Rand Paul any Edge that he potentially didn't already have.

after all, Rand Paul got 61.8 percent of the vote in his area, it's more so, the competitive areas that really matter. And in Battleground races where it's not as simple as just getting a rubber stamp Donald Trump only won about 14 endorsements or rather, I should say Donald Trump endorsed candidates only won about 14 out of 37 times. That's less than half. In fact, 14 divided by 37 is only about a 38 percent success ratio.

Flumping a coin would have been a better success ratio. now. Mitch McConnell was previously endorsed by Donald Trump, but he thinks haven't been great between Donald Trump and Mitch McConnell lately. Mitch McConnell Recently said our ability to control a primary outcome was quite Limited in 2022 because of the former president.

So in my view, do do the best you can with the cards you've dealt. Hopefully in the next cycle will have quality candidates everywhere and a better outcome. Donald Trump Responded by suggesting that Mitch McConnell should be impeached and of course Mitch McConnell Slap back here and suggested that anybody who suggests you should suspend the Constitution would probably have a hard time becoming president again, obviously clearly directly attacking Donald Trump Now, in 2018, we had some research about Donald Trump's effect on midterms from the Legislative Studies Quarterly, and they suggested that Trump potentially had a down drag on some candidates that he endorsed, maybe helping contribute to the loss of 12 House Seats that year, possibly because of his polarizing nature to motivate Democrats to come out and vote. Remember in the 2020 recall election in California when Larry Elder ran against Gavin Newsom Larry Elder's photograph of him standing next to Donald Trump was circulated and that's all it took to get Democrats to come out and vote.

was painting a candidate as Trumpian and all of a sudden and Democrats came out in droves now in in competitive elections. We also noticed based on some research put together by NBC that any candidate who denied the 2020 election in a 2022 race lost 20 out of 28 out of 29 races. So if you were an election denier, you were almost certain to lose. So where do we stand in terms of favorability? Well, favorability between uh, well, all voters sits at about 43 percent for DeSantis and 36 percent for Trump.

If you put only the likely voters against each other, you see an 86 percent favorability rating for DeSantis and a 74 favorability rating for Trump. Now things get interesting when we leave favorability and we start actually talking about which candidate might win. In a hypothetical context, us between DeSantis and Trump The Wall Street Journal released a poll and this is also the the poll that conducted the favorability studies. The Wall Street Journal's hypothetical contest between DeSantis and Trump led to DeSantis beating Trump 52 to 38.

However, you could just as easily look at another morning consult poll that also just came out within the last week. And in a hypothetical contest between Trump and DeSantis Trump leads to Santus by 31 or sorry 31 to Santa's 49. Donald Trump I Think the key thing here is look, we know we should question polls right. but I think what's clear out of polls is that this is really right now not a race of Ted Cruz or Greg Abbott or Mike Pompeo or Tim Scott or or really anyone else.

This is going to be a trump DeSantis runoff and it's going to be a very interesting primary. Now worth noting that the Morning Console poll actually surveyed more registered voters 4 200 approximately Uh between December 9th and 11th and the Wall Street Journal poll register only surveyed about 1500 registered voters between December 3rd and 7th. So you've got the morning consult one that's a little bit earlier. but I Think really what? what we should take away from these Uh is is because you could get as long as they're randomly selected, you could get statistical significance out of these.

Which means even though those numbers seem very small, they could be somewhat representative. Uh I Believe the best takeaway from this is just okay. We gotta focus on Trump DeSantis That's where it is. It's probably not going to be any of the other candidates, and the focus should be on those too.

Additionally, if you pit the Mike Pence against Donald Trump, you get Trump beating Mike Pence. But and this is by a large margin 63 to 28. And if you pit Biden versus Trump, you actually get Biden leading Trump 45 percent 243 Now, obviously these are just poles, but they're They're quite interesting and in a moment I Want to touch on Gavin Newsom a little bit and maybe a potential vice presidential candidate for Uh DeSantis to choose which could be very powerful in my opinion. but take a look at this percentage with a favorable view of all, you can see the breakdown here again, within party versus amongst all voters.

That's the difference between the green bar and the gray bar. Gray bar is within the party and within the party. You can actually see this very clear distinction where DeSantis edges above Donald Trump here Mike Pence Not not much excitement over here for Mike Pence and then of course, within the party. Larger favorability rating among some Biden, but not much more than what DeSantis already has.

So quite fascinating. We've got a poll over here. matchups Again, this shows you potential matchup of primary opponents Trump versus DeSantis DeSantis here, pulling ahead pretty pretty nicely in that Wall Street Journal poll. However, Donald Trump versus Mike Pence and it's just a slam dunk for Donald Trump.

Now what about a vice presidential candidate potentially for DeSantis Well, I Spoke with someone from Texas uh, just the other day and not that it matters where they're really from, but uh, they're They're in oil work and they had this really interesting perspective that I actually think is brilliant. What if you had DeSantis potentially aligned with Abbott As a vice president, that is the governor of Texas So rather than them competing against each other, what if they joined forces and aligned? Now that I thought was really interesting in a potentially powerful match-up against Donald Trump The only question then is who are feet people going to vote for when it comes down to DeSantis versus Newsom? Now some folks argue that a Newsome vote could be interesting because if he runs the United States like he runs California the United States just isn't going to get anything done. We'll literally just have Democratic gridlock and nothing will get done because risk just won't be taken. whereas a DeSantis presidency could actually see some changes.

But then that also makes some folks on the left a little bit nervous as potentially leading them to come out and vote more than Republicans might. Who knows. But it's an interesting idea. and it's obviously very, very early.

But we're seeing a clear Trend so far and this has been reiterated time and time again since the midterm elections that Donald Trump is getting a little bit pushed aside, whereas Mike Pence Uh doesn't seem to have much of a chance, and DeSantis seems to be really getting elevated in multiple different polls. and the more this gets reiterated, the more popular DeSantis actually seems to become Uh. And then that's very common. The more news coverage you get, the more popular you seem to become.

Anyway, let me know what you think in the comments down below. Thanks for watching, We'll see in the next one. Bye.