Between now and mid-December We Face a lot of catalysts that will absolutely make the market go up or down. Hey everyone Me: Kevin here. Yes, I said that correct. Did the market will be going up or down? The question is which catalyst is going to be most impactful to your trading or investing portfolio.

And in this video, we're going to break down the various different catalysts that we Face including what's going on with oil, what's going on with Apple, What's going on with earnings coming up and this Cloud still stand a chance. We'll also talk about some estimates coming up and reports coming up, including inflation expectations and of course the inflation. Report With a small note on what to expect for the Federal Reserve meeting, Now let's get started. The first thing we need to touch on is oil.

Look generally when a price cap is instituted. example: Russian Oil there are Euros trade for about 69 a barrel. Price cap gets set at 60 dollars. That means something is trading above the cap.

Which technically should mean that whoever's selling this lose is money, right? But the problem anytime you have a price cap is generally you create more shortages for a product. So even though the Russian barrels of oil might be more expensive to transfer around the world, oil in general might be more in demand. That is Clean oil. Clean Oil.

That's kind of an irony. But anyway, clean oil that is non-russian oil might be more in demand. That could lead to prices rising. But as we know, markets really try to anticipate future actions of government and the future consequences of OPEC and OPEC Plus, as a result, I actually believe that oil is likely to continue its downtrend over the next six months, but we could see some serious volatility over the next few weeks as the market tries to realize okay, what's going on with this G7 price cap So basically in short, the European union says hey, look, we need to Institute a price cap on Russian oil so we can punish the Russians they chose sixty dollars as a price cap per barrel for a Russian oil.

What This this really though does is make the shadow market for transporting oil sort of the secondary oil transport Market a lot more dangerous and a lot more costly. It's not just the price of oil, but it's the fact that if you're caught transporting Russian oil, your company could be barred from the actual clean International oil markets. So as a result, the shadow Market is usually made up of old tankers that operate without insurance that operate without country flags that send out misleading transmission signals and they really do everything to sort of literally fly under the radar and not really exist. The problem with this is it's very expensive and risky to do these things.

So these sort of Transport chips charge more money and again, this is where anytime you have a price cap, you actually end up artificially increasing the price by on one hand reducing supply of clean oil or any oil that could be sold to let's say, Europe or the United States. But you also make it more expensive to transport the dirty oil, increasing the costs of doing business there, therefore increasing the cost. Four countries who are buying the generally dirty oil like India and China. In fact, the cost to transport oil from Russia to India and China has almost doubled in just the last 12 months.

The cost just to transport a barrel of oil to India from Russia is about 20 dollars a barrel. That means if you're selling it for 70 bucks, twenty dollars of it. That's a lot. That's more than a fourth of it is going just to Freight.

And if you look at the cost to get it to China, add another five bucks. It's now 25 bucks a barrel just to move that oil over there. That's pretty dang expensive. It's worth noting now.

Zielinski says these price caps don't go too far enough, and ultimately the world isn't exactly certain what's going to happen with oil prices. But let's just put it this way: oil prices matter a lot because they go into all of our inflationary data, especially the Consumer Price Index. Now a lot of folks like to say hey, but we could just look at core inflation and we can basically strip out the impact of oil on inflation when we just look at Core, which takes out food and energy, right? Not really. Let's be real.

The price of oil goes into absolutely everything that we do. The real estate agent has more costs because they're driving a more expensive gas. Just to give you an example, I could do thousands more. Not so important.

The point is, you can't strip out that agent's increased costs compared to the rest of the market. Again, there are plenty of other examples for this, but your computer, for example, just to give one more becomes more expensive because the Plastics are more expensive because oil is more expensive, right? You can't strip out that cost and say, well, a certain percentage of that plastic it came from oil. and therefore, when we strip that, it just doesn't work that way, it's part of consumer spending. It's part of a computer.

Spend so on. CPI You still see higher costs reflected with higher oil prices. So the point, though, is these price cap discussions. While they technically should prop up oil prices and the price cap from an economic point of view, should prop up oil prices, but again, increasing costs for the secondary Market the shadow market and shortening supply for the primary Market.

We should or potentially could actually see markets fall because this price cap is higher than the worst case scenario that we could have seen. and so it's actually not as bad as thought. So oil prices could continue to Trend down And that's what at least what I'm expecting for the next six months though. investing in oil companies could still make a good hedge.

If you're investing in, let's say, pricing power stocks or innovation stocks, it doesn't hurt in my opinion to have a little bit of an exposure to oil companies because they can be a pretty cheap hedge. Oil goes to the moon. The other stocks go down. you have kind of a little bit of a seesaw.

Balancing Act Just an idea. Now let's talk about Apple What's going on with Apple So Apple Interesting, Apple is accelerating its plans to shift out of China. They're trying to become less reliant on China because you can't rely on China with these insane coveted lockdown rules when at 1.85 percent of all iPhone Pros were assembled at Foxconn in China. So right now you literally have Foxconn scrambling.

You've got people trying to F working for Foxconn move equipment from Lockdown cities to non-lockdown cities in China just to try to get operation up because the United States is like okay, we can't rely on China for manufacturing and Apple is realizing this. So now they are in consultation uh, and looking for other partners in India and countries like Vietnam because hey, what do you have? You need better manufacturing reliability now. One of the things that's interesting about Vietnam is it doesn't have as big of a manufacturing population as what potentially China has, so you've got some issues to deal with there not enough manufacturing people. When you look at India what do you have? you don't have as much government coordination.

It's a little bit harder to get coordination between the different states in India because it's almost like every state within India is run as its own country. and this makes it really hard for manufacturers to say oh yeah, let's build manufacturing there. they're there. The rules are so different everywhere, so it's challenging, but it's something that Apple is looking to do.

Apple at the same time has also agreed to extend its advertising on Twitter after Elon Musk met Tim Cook in person at the Apple facility. Now what I think is very interesting here is: Tim Cook pulled a really smart move while Elon Musk was bashing Tim Cook on Twitter Tim Cook sent apparently Elon Musk some sort of invite to meet him in person. They hashed out their problems and no longer is Elon Musk bashing Tim Cook and Apple has resumed their advertising. So it goes to show that when it comes to sales, oftentimes Belly to Belly is the best way to sell.

This is something that I teach in my Elite Hustlers course and my real estate agent of course I think there's some really, really good opportunities to double down on learning how to sell and person. Check out those programs linked down below with a coupon expiring this: Friday a special coupon code for coupon code PP As we go, ring the bell at the stock exchange on Friday which by the way, you're invited to the outside of the stock exchange. just show up Friday at 5 00 PM December 9th. Okay, now we've got uh, some pain as well in Cloud After Salesforce's earnings and crowd strikes earnings and weakness from Google and Amazon, there's some belief that companies are going to start trying to trim costs on cloud.

And even though Cloud might seem so critical for for businesses, there's now talk that businesses like Expedia for example, just spent money like crazy on the cloud and never actually optimize their Cloud spend. And so now what they're trying to do is optimize their Cloud spend. And by optimizing their Cloud spend, they're basically trying to figure out okay, where can we cut Cloud spend And even though they're still using Cloud, they're becoming more efficient at using it. And this is a big red flag to potentially Amazon Google Salesforce and the like.

And it's potentially also a red flag to the chip makers who rely heavily on cloud data and infrastructure. So one Catalyst to pay attention to is how this Cloud transition is happening. So we've got oil, we've got Apple We've got Cloud Now, what else do we have? Well, when we look at some dates, we've got the University of Michigan sentiment survey coming out with this: Friday We are expecting the one year and a five year to remain stable from the last report at 4.9 percent and three percent. These expectations are really important when these break drone files starts getting very, very nervous.

These could potentially be more important than Jobs data though generally that we don't pay attention to it as much as Jobs data, potentially because these expectations can kind of just lag what CPI does. It's kind of like people here. Oh, inflation came in cooler. Okay, well then my expectations are cooler.

so there's some of that belief. and as a result because the last inflation report came in Weak maybe this funnel came in a coming week as well, which could be a positive. Catalyst We also get the next PPI release also on December 9th. Now, what's fascinating here is the last producer Price index release was on November 15th.

That's while I was on a cruise and it's weird to think that this report is only coming out three weeks after that, rather than a full month after that. kind of a weird and crazy schedule, but it's true. The expectation is that year over year PPI will come in at 7.2 versus 8 last time and Core could come in at 5.2 versus 6.7 last time and PPI final demand 0.2 versus 0.2 last time. On the month over month, this will be a big Catalyst uh As as always, it is sort of seen as second to CPI.

So mark your calendar for the ninth for the producer price index coming out. we'll get some numbers on consumer credit on the seventh. For uh, for consumers, we'll kind of see what kind of borrowing is going on. that's on the seventh.

Empire State Manufacturing comes out on December 15th. That's uh. after the Fomc meeting? Uh, we'll uh. well.

actually it comes out right before the Fomc meetings result. The Fomc meeting this time begins on the 14th and ends on the 15th. We'll be covering that. We are expecting a 50 basis point hike, though everything is going to be dependent on in my opinion, the CPI report that comes out on the 13th.

So if you really want to mark your calendars for something, mark your calendar for the 13th. The 13th at 5 30 a.m Pacific Time 8 30 a.m Eastern time will be getting the Consumer Price Index read: We're looking at a survey of 0.3 month over month. The Last Read was 0.4 We're looking at a year over year of 7.3 The Last Read was 7.7 If we just meet the survey, it would be pretty darn solid CPI report. It would reiterate the trend down and this is a this would be good.

All we have to do is meet this one. We don't have to go crazy and miss this one. If we just meet, we solidify that beat we had last time. So meat will solidify the beat.

That would be very, very good. So I'm optimistic, but I'm not making any predictions for the CPI yet. We'll see what happens when we get closer to the 13th. But the Wall Street survey is 0.3 month over month.

That's an annualized rate of 3.6 percent that honestly would be great, and it shows a meaningful decline from 7.7 to 7.3 percent on the year over year. So I'm optimistic, but again, not making a prediction here. This is just what Wall Street is suggesting. I Believe that this CPI report will be critical for what the FED does look.

right now, there's the expectation that with 78.2 percent likelihood, we're going to get a 50 basis point hike. Uh, from the FED meeting on the 15th, it's all going to come down to CPI. Though, if the CPI comes in at expectations I think the FED might actually give the Strong Jobs report we had a pass. they might say look, that Strong Jobs Report is lagging.

The most important data we have right now is the CPI. We are not going to pay so much attention to the Jobs report as long as it doesn't become a theme that wage price gains are elevating quickly. That's very, very important. But what we have to remember is that if the wage price spiral takes hold and we continue to get high Jobs reports where wages are coming in high high high like they did in the last report, Fed's gonna have to rock pull us even if CPI is rotating down.

but I think they're going to stick to their theme. As long as there's no trend of crazy wage price spirals setting in, then we're going to ignore the Jobs report. We'll focus on CPI as long as the CPI comes in close to expectations. I Think we'll get our 50 basis points.

the CPI misses nicely. I Think we're still going to get our 50, but it could really put a squeeze on how soon the FED says let's go to 25. if we get a real big Miss on that CPI report we could have a very bullish stock market out term Outlook because the FED might turn around and say look, we're going to start planting the seeds for a 25 basis point next time instead of another 50. So everything is focused on that CPI report, but we do also have some earnings to look forward to.

AutoZone And the auto companies have done very, very well for the auto repair companies. Uh, the AutoZone is expecting EPS Gap to come in at 25.27 implied volatility 4.39 Toll Brothers Uh, I You know I I Think these these home builders have actually there's stocks, haven't done too terribly for how badly I Feel like they should be doing with the price reductions they're taking, but it seems like a lot of pain has already been built into. These depends how long the real estate pain lasts, but Toll Brothers is expecting 3.95 dollars in Gap earnings with an implied movement of 4.7 percent. The biggest movement is actually going to potentially come from Dave and Buster's looking for 8.9 cents in Gap with an implied movement almost twice the average of 8.9 percent.

That's on the sixth. The next day you have GameStop trending up in the wallet store on the app store by the way. But anyway, 6.88 implied one day a movement expecting gap of negative 35 cents C3ai for the cloud space also coming out on the 7th implied earnings movement of 13.7 percent. looking for about a negative 0.59 cents on gap.

On the 8th, you have Express Lulu and Restoration Hardware. Out of all of these, if I really had to pay attention to some dangers, it'd be Cloud C3ai potential for a big double-digit Miss I think uh, just because of the pain we're seeing in cloud and then on a company like Lulu you want to see and Restoration Hardware is that middle to higher end consumers still spending money? Do these companies continue to have pricing power? They've had a lot of pricing power in the past, but could these recessionary Dynamics in this Black Friday have proven weak for these companies? and uh, is that pricing power waning? Those are going to be critical to how strong these companies are going to be able to hold up their sales. So uh, overall I think the oil Trend again is down, but we'll have some volatility when we look at Apple Still optimistic on Apple figuring their stuff out. but boy, those iPhone shipments are expected to lag down from about 90 million iPhone shipments expected in Q4 down to maybe 70 to 75..

that's a pretty darn big Miss there for expectations. So you could see some downward pressure for Apple as we get into 2023, especially since a lot of people have been using Apple as kind of a safe haven and it hasn't been performing too terribly badly relative to other stocks in the tech sector. Given the macro economy, it's not 18. That's still pretty bad year to date, but when you look at the S P 500 year-to-date it's down 14.8 percent.

If you had to pick a stock, that one's not doing too terribly relative to the S P 500, even Microsoft is down worse at negative almost 24 year today, and we don't even want to start looking at some of the others like Facebook down 63 percent here today. Really, the big companies that I've been holding up uh, the S P 500 have of course been companies like Walmart or certainly look at something like the energy sector and end phase. Oh my gosh, So how do you position yourself in this kind of Market Well, some folks are saying one of the best investments to make now could be in the chip sector, that the chip sector may actually have potentially found a bottom and the chip company. These are finding ways to circumvent sanctions like the Biden administration's Chip Act sanctions against us, the export of certain chips from companies like Nvidia or AMD to China those companies of course announcing workaround chips that could still be sold to China Of course this just amplifies China's interest in making their own chips, which then potentially eventually reduces Reliance Anyway, on these United States companies, other folks say no, the place to be is actually in Industrials into companies like John Deere and Caterpillar companies that have actually done pretty dang well over the past year relative to other companies.

Some folks say no, the best thing to do is just stay in cash even though Michael Burry says he's not short anymore. At least that's what the latest rumor is on. Twitter Folks say it might be too soon to jump into tech stocks and growth stocks and it's best to sit on the sidelines and wait for some kind of confirmation that the bottom of inflate or I should say that Peak inflation is actually in which could then maybe Mark the bottom of the stock market. Remember that some of the best returns we see in the stock market are when we hit Peak inflation as well as when we come or or after I should say an election cycle.

Now that's a pretty neat combination there. If you can get both Peak inflation and come after an election cycle, we could potentially see some real optimism in markets going forward. We'll see we don't want to be too optimistic though. I'm going to be prepared for that downside by limiting margin, making sure we're not getting margin called, and buckling up make more money along the ride, so that way we can invest more.

But in the meantime, hold on anyway. We'll see how things develop over the next two weeks. These are really big and important catalysts to pay attention to and uh hey look I wish you the best in trading out there. My trading challenge starts on December 12th for everyone in the stocks and psychology money Group After we ring the bell, make sure to check out the programs linked down below and building your wealth.

That's our only sponsor for the channel and folks, we'll see you in the next one. Goodbye.