Welcome back to another CPI report Boy, this is gonna be a big one because this is the one that could finally reiterate a real downtrend. Okay, we've had plenty of these. We've had three. We've had three CPI misses to the downside and all of a sudden after so far two of them, we've had CPI misses To the upside after two downsides, the problem with that is you don't have a trend, but you don't have a trend.

Drum pal says that's it. We gotta keep raising. We had it happen in March We thought March was the bottom of inflation. not even close.

We thought the summer was the bottom, not even close. So folks here we sit again. Today is the 13th Lucky number 13 December 13. we have CPI expectations today.

year over year of 7.3 and month over month of seven. or a month over month of 0.3 that would be annualized. multiply by 12. you don't do exponents here.

multiply it by 12 for an annual and what do you end up with 3.6 So today, we've also had this uh, this sort of Outline by JP Morgan that if we ended up getting a number like 6.9 we could actually end up marking the bottom of the bear Market Now I Thought this was really interesting because we've looked at a few reports previously on the channel about how markets bottom out often in the year following midterm election and in the year following when inflation Peaks out. So if we got a big Miss To the downside, both of those could end up being right. So we are about three minutes away now from the actual release and boy oh boy is it gonna make some big differences I would say this: uh, this is. We saw a lot of volatility actually going into today, which is also kind of interesting.

uh, something we were talking about with course members just the other day is we were looking at volatility and we were noticing that volatility was actually generally relatively low going into CPI or Fed release days. But uh, for some reason yesterday it was different. You had volatility going in pretty strong. yeah into CPI Now upon a little bit of further research, it looks like the put volume yesterday was absolutely astronomical.

Uh, like, let me see if I can uh, share that screen here. Yesterday the put call ratio exploded I Thought this was very interesting. Uh, it really to me showed that there's some real nervousness about this second report. the second report being a big deal, uh, and a lot of people are really prepping and hedging themselves.

Uh, for this report, let's go ahead and share that screen which is right here. Yeah, look at. take a look at this. this is the put call ratio and look on the right side.

You could actually see this insane spike in the put call ratio and then what I want you to pay attention to is look at the bottom. Look at the very bottom. What years do you see along this bottom? where I am This is not months, folks. this is like decades.

You know, periods of five years and and that put call ratio way over there is insanely High So it's really interesting. We'll see, we'll see what that means. Um, you know, let's put call ratio means how many puts do you have over calls? So if you have, you know 200 put contracts created versus a hundred, you have a ratio of two. right? All right? Well we are now, uh, officially.

within about uh, 35 seconds of what could bring Santa to town or not. Ah, this is a pretty big deal because if if this number comes in, honestly, if it just comes in at Trend, it's going to be good I'm I'm hoping for a 7.4 and a 0.4 which is a good downtrend. It's a little bit higher than the estimate. Remember 7.3 and 0.3 is what Wall Street takes I Don't know if we're going to get a huge Miss To the downside here: I don't think oil fell fast enough? Oh man, here we go.

probably within the next 10 seconds. Month over month. I'm gonna read uh, probably first. Oh my Gosh.

Point One: That's amazing. Holy it's to the downside, it's amazing. What? 7.1 Let's go. Yes Oh my gosh, this is that.

This is Huge. 7.1 Year over year Point: One Month over month. Uh, excluding food and energy month over month. Point Two: Uh.

core CPI food and energy year over year six Uh uh uh. Real Real average hourly earnings year over year. Negative: 1.9 Uh real average weekly earnings year over year. Negative: 3.0 This is this is great.

This is freaking awesome. Uh okay okay okay wow wow wow Wow. like I feel like I feel like I'm shaking. This is crazy.

Um wow Wow. Okay so again CPI only up point one on the month over month. That is amazing I I'm shocked. Okay, we were expecting point three I did not believe that because we we came up point four last time.

Let's see here. Uh okay. let's do this together here. Wow.

this is this is very very good. Over the last 12 months, all items in the index increased 7.1 before the seasonal adjustment. Uh, the index for Shelter was by far the greatest contributor of all items of the increase. Okay, that's huge right there.

That's huge because even Jerome Powell is telling us we know shelter is plummeting like he knows shelter is plummeting. So the fact that the largest contributor of all items was shelter is going to be music to drum Pals Ears that we could actually engineer some kind of Landing I I Don't really want to say soft Landing because I Feel like we've nobody feels soft here. Everybody feels like they've gotten hit pretty hard. Uh man.

okay this is great for pricing power. This is great for for PP stocks. Uh, more than offsetting decreases in energy indices. The food index increased 0.5 month, uh, over the month with food at home Rising 0.5 That's six percent annualized.

That's good. That's actually not as bad as it has been. Energy decreased: 1.60 I Didn't think it decreased enough to actually drag this down, but you had moves down and core as well once you strip food. energy.

So uh, over the month as the gasoline index, electricity and oil all decline. Fine index for all items less food and energy Rose 0.2 percent in November after Rising 0.3 in October the shelter communication Recreation Motor Vehicle Insurance education and apparel uh were among those that increased. really? uh, apparel increased over the month. Is this like a Black Friday thing or something here? Uh.

Indices which declined in November include used cars and trucks Medical Care and airline fares Whoa. Airline fares I Want to see that in detail here? Uh, this was the smallest 12-month increase since ending in December 2011. all items lost food in uh and energy Rose six percent over the prior 12. Energy index increased 13.1 percent for the 12 months ending.

November Yeah, we're still coming off pretty high numbers. Okay, seasonally adjusted changes from the prior month. So you're gonna look at this column over here on on the right. Uh, you know here.

let me align it in a way where this can be very easy for us. There we go. you're just going to look at the far right column. Used Cars 2.9 to the outside.

Look at this. We're almost negative across the entire the scope here. Negative: 0.4 Negative point One Negative 1.1 Negative: 2.4 Negative: 2.9 That's great new vehicles After a point four percent increase last month Zero zero during the Black Friday sales That's great Medical Care Services Point to Apparel: 0.2 Only 0.2 is here. That's great.

Oh my gosh, Shelter actually moved down. No way. Look at that. This thing's been sitting at 0.7.8 and everybody was expecting these suckers to to stay at 0.7.8 Remember, shelter makes up about one third of the Consumer Price Index and I've said this many a time on this channel.

Yeah, we extended the coupon code to tomorrow because I was busy at not responding to emails at the New York Stock Exchange My fault. So tomorrow the 14th at 11 59 PM the Pp coupon code will end and boy, we're gonna have a lot to talk about in today's course member livestream. But anyway, Um, I've said this before that: CPI leads everything going down CPI leads PPI Going down CPI leads jobs inflation going down. It leads everything to go down because businesses stop raising wages when their sales prices go down to the extent that they can uh or their margins compressed right? Uh.

Which means businesses have to eventually stop raising prices for business services because when good prices go down, their customers have less of a capacity to pay for more expensive business services. So you get PPI going down it. Like logic tells you that the and we've talked about this so many times in the cycle. unemployment is like the last thing.

uh, in a recession. Like once unemployment goes up, it's like you're you're already knee-deep in the recession anyway. Uh, okay. Ah, this is crazy.

Uh, let me get to one of the more detailed charts here because I I Want to see some of the specifics here? All right Here we go. So actually I would like to go even more detailed. Yeah, here we go. here we go.

Okay, Okay, so this is going to give us on the far right side. You're going to get the seasonally adjusted month over month. The far right side. All right.

So what do we have over here? Apparel Services Point One: I Mean this is not. These are some nominal numbers. Where are the big ones? Personal care services and haircuts up One point. Four percent Personal services up Point A: Still still a little high here.

still a little high. We want to see that start coming down. Well, we have had telephone services, right? We keep seeing that Services word still still seeing. High reads I mean last month we had 3.6 on postage.

But look at the waiting right. it's a low weighting. It makes up 0.08 Uh, now it's only at 0.2 Okay, good. so you get some fluctuations here.

not a trend. Oh hey, where where are those? Uh oh oh no. Okay I was gonna say where are those AMC Apes Because I Thought it said admission to movie theaters was up 7.5 but that's actually sporting events. Movie theaters are up 1.6 These are just.

these are some pretty large fluctuations that that we're getting here and it just shows how intense uh inflationary issues have been. Uh but here here we go here. Now we're getting a nice like row of negative look at this. Negative, negative, negative, negative, negative, negative.

Oh I Like that oh boy. I Remember a year ago I'm like one day in the future we're going to look at these CPI reports and it's just gonna be negative, negative, negative uh, health insurance with almost a one percent waiting here and down four point three percent car and truck rental. Finally thank the Lord Finally, minus 2.4 Holy smokes, how long was what was uh uh? car and truck rental A complete disaster. My goodness Uh this this is really really good.

Moving Storage Freight Finally, minus 1.2 This is great again if you're just now joining. uh I I Can't believe this. We got 7.1 on the top. Uh, we got point point one on the month over month I Mean that was nobody thought this was coming in at point one on the month.

This is great! uh we're gonna look at Wall Street analysis in just a moment as well. Lodging away from home down 0.9 percent. Uh, wow. really.

So that's actually interesting. The owner's equivalent rent actually went up from 0.6 to 0.7 but that's kind of where it's been right: 0.7.8.6.7 But what dragged everything down was actually lodging away from home including hotels and motels. I Think Airbnb is going down and now now I Don't think they're going bankrupt. but I think they're going to have some really tough quarters ahead.

Now they say that more people do like list Airbnbs in a recessionary time, but you know what my thesis here is. Listen to this thesis. I Want to be very, very clear about this? Okay, this is my thesis, but I believe it. I Believe more people are going to list homes on Airbnb So more inventory and less people are actually going to rent homes on Airbnb So less demand.

you're going in the opposite directions. Okay, more. Supply less demand Prices are going to plummet for Airbnbs I Think you're gonna get a lot of people and we're very. We're doing a lot of research on this for househag purposes, right? We don't want to go buy a bunch of properties under the impression we can rent them out on Airbnb and then get asked.

So we're not doing that. We we are. We are playing house Hack is going to be the most conservative thing I ever do in my life, but it's all I mean come on. renting out real estate's like a slam dunk like you.

You really have to suck to screw up. Uh, but the wedge deal model boy, that's gonna be great. Anyway, Smartphones down 1.4 but they've been plummeting for a while. That's not.

that's that's already the trend. Computers plummeting Information Technology Uh Commodities Plummeting Okay, good, that's great. toys. Uh, we're starting to see toys come down 1.4 phenomenal newspapers down 2.2 Mainstream media is deathly afraid of social media I'll tell you that.

Well I learned that at the stock Exchange I'll tell you that's what one of the big things I got reiterated. It reminded me of campaign days. Holy smokes. Anyway, other video equipment minus 3.1 percent.

That was fun ringing the bell. by the way. Uh, I really hope Friday we could look back and go. that was the bottom.

Uh, you know and this CPI helps that become a reality? Dang yeah, that's great. Uh, minus 2.9 on those used cars trucks great girls apparel minus 2.2 Uh, all right, let's go a little faster here. I Want to get to see what? uh, what? some of the Wall Street folks are saying? Okay, some household goods here. Uh, major appliances? actually up point six percent? That's surprising.

But laundry equipment plummeting? uh, window coverings? This is a volatile one, but down 1.4 Fine. We get the energy sectors here. Uh, you know food I mean coffee's up again instead? Well, instant coffee. Nobody cares about instant coffee.

Uh, only 0.2 on regular coffee. Okay, great instant coffee's nasty. Uh, I mean I get it if you're in a bind. It's like, all right, All right.

I'll take the sack instant coffee and pour some hot water over it. but it's just nasty. All right. So what do I got here? Uh, we've got.

uh. let's see here. Okay, better than expected. CPI number gives the fed the cover it needs to Signal Rate hikes will come to an end.

Uh, good. We have. uh. important piece of the story of rate hikes working.

This is the first meaningful beat, right? Because it's it's now the second CPI beat in a row. That's good and it follows the October PPI which is great. November PPI was a little mix, but it was still trending down. This is great.

Okay, we talked about used cars and trucks. Yeah, yeah, yeah yeah. somebody else talks about this on Wall Street as well. they say I'm surprised to see that apparel prices increased in November I said the same thing too I'm like, what is it is it Lulu uh as expected, we got a big a decrease in energy price as well.

I mean I thought it was going to decrease more because we had more the bulk of the oil decreases were actually the first couple weeks in. December Uh okay, this should give Powell some confidence for tomorrow about maybe even signaling a further step down to 25 in February Now remember after tomorrow's J-pal meeting which I will be covering Live Please come 11 A.M California Time 2 P.m Pacific sorry uh 2 p.m Eastern Uh, we will get the statement. We are obviously going to get a 50 a 50 basis point hike if if he came out and gave us anything lower. Dude, he's just gonna loosen Financial condition so much it's gonna be stupid.

We're do not play it on anything other than 50 tomorrow. but he could bring that same bullish powie daddy powie that we had. uh and he could. He could bring that tomorrow again and start talking about 25.

you know, start sweet talking us a little bit. Well uh, somebody here says so you think we might have finally hit a bottom. Let me just put it this way. this is the first time we have a CPI Trend plummeting.

Okay, this is not only do we have the CPA Trend to the downside, but it is trending below the trend like the expectation Trend right? Like both of the last, reports were expected to be a trend down, but we've missed to the downside under both of those I mean that's great. So good. Okay today's report is what the FED officials want to see is steady decline in inflation. uh matching Trend treasury yield slide that's actually good for Real Estate Honestly like for for a signal soon that by the the opportunity to buy real estate might actually come sooner if inflation plummets.

Holy Smokes! Oh my gosh, Oh man, hold on a second, you got to see this. Uh for anybody paying attention, this is huge treasure yields down under 3.5 down 13 basis points. You don't want to know what I did with the money at house hack I put that all in treasuries close to just about four percent and it's like now now we're just ready to go shopping. It's so great it will Meanwhile we're just milking a high yield.

it's so good. Oh man this is good. Okay let's continue to see what Wall Street is saying. Uh I'm really surprised that that shelter and lodging went down I That really plays into the Airbnb thesis that that that stuff's Plumbing uh to two year two year two year down 20 bips? Holy smokes.

oh man this is so good. Uh let's see here. Okay uh. Fed Risk Asset Rally undercuts the FED tightening campaign you know look Okay, this is.

this is a fair statement. It's a fair statement for them to say if we end up having a stock rally that Jerome Powell has to talk dirty to us again that he has to talk us down. Okay look. Fair statement.

Why do I actually think that's not true? Because of what he did in the last meeting, he did not have to feed us a rally in the last meeting, I I told you this in the in the last meeting and I I like I I'm not always right but I I noticed a change in Jerome Powell's demeanor in the last meeting which is the same change I noticed in the opposite direction in January for that December meeting where I'm like holy crap this is so different from what we've been hearing. Remember in January we got the minutes and it was like oh my gosh this is the report ever Worst report ever. If you want to see what panic in Kevin's eyes looked like, type into YouTube after this video uh meet Kevin Worst report Federal Reserve look for the one that's like January 5 2022 you it's like 50 minutes long. you will see what bad U-turn looks like I saw bullish U-turn from from Jerome in the last one because I started seeing some Panic a sign that oh man we may have gone too far I think that's what you're starting to see and you've got economists that are saying the FED only has to go slightly too far to really F things up and they might already be at that level here.

That's incredible All right. What else do we have here? Pal noted at the end of November he's looking for substantially more evidence. Yeah, well, here you go buddy. Uh, one thing to watch for in the press conference tomorrow is how Hawkeye she is.

especially with uh, following a strong stock rally. Fine. I I Think look Jerome doesn't want us to lose money if his goals are being met right. As long as he's happy, it's okay for us to be happy because it's like, hey, look, let him be happy while everybody else not be miserable.

That's okay. Uh, the problem is, everybody's been miserable most of the year because CPI has been a an S show. You know it's been bad, it's been terrible, but it's been terrible. Whoa.

Uh Steve here in the chat says uh that uh Kevin is a is a clinical psychologist Did I forget to mention licensed clinical psychologists I'm just kidding. I'm not licensed or uh, but thank you. Uh holy crap dude. Trade Desk up Eight percent.

Holy Smokes. Did you know that's my second largest holding in a basket that shall go unmentioned. Uh, I'm not allowed to say certain things. Uh, no, it's actually my third.

It's the third largest. It's third largest. Uh I I I I Moved it up. That's great.

Yeah, when it's slid, I'm like we're moving that sucker up. Whoa. Holy Smokes. Uh, look at these numbers here.

This is these are the this: like a firm and Redfin moving eight percent Cloudflare Eight percent. Uh. Trade Desk: eight point Three percent. That's freaking awesome.

Tesla's like five percent. Elon's really got a shot, You know? let me ask you this. Okay, okay, like I Gotta know this yesterday I made a video and a lot of people got pissed off at me. They're like oh my gosh, Elon's just just speaking the truth.

He's just kidding like it is. Kevin Let me ask you this. Okay, and I'm gonna run a poll on this and then we're gonna go back to what Wall Street is saying about about CPI But I I Want to run a poll about this I want to know what you think? Okay if Elon Musk bankrupts Twitter because all the advertisers run away, Does he hurt? Free Speech or help Free Speech Okay, that's the question. if Elon Musk bankrupts Twitter Does Free Speech get hurt? Okay, that's the question and start a poll and then we're going to go back to what Wall Street uh yes Free Speech suffers No Free speech is fine.

All right. so that because like I'm a big fan of always thinking like the next step, right? people are bitching at me saying Kevin you you shouldn't tell Elon Musk to shut the F up because it's free speech man I'm like, look, let everyone else have their Free Speech But when you go cheer free speech and you start saying like things that are borderline conspiratorial, you piss off advertisers, They leave Twitter goes bankrupt. Now you actually hurt free speech for millions of people rather than being selfish about your own opinions. It's it's like true or not.

it's not your place to be bitching so much to where advertisers are going to leave my take I'm very curious though to see what what the poll is anyway. all right while that goes on. Uh, let me go to uh, let me see Wall Street Okay, the two: the point two percent month over month CPI Reading was lower than all but two of the 67 estimates in the Bloomberg survey. Holy Smokes 67 estimates and only two were at point two.

Everyone else was higher. That's really incredible. Uh, the second straight month of downside. Surprising, the CPI vindicates the Bond Market rally.

Yeah, no, this is. this is freaking awesome. Uh, you know it was an honor to be on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange Uh, this. Friday uh and actually uh, yesterday because I got to see CNBC filming.

Uh, it was really cool. Let's listen in over here from other three of us, this is Nine, that is Nine. Quick reminder: Neila Richardson will join the CNBC Small business Playbook virtual Summit tomorrow I Don't care I Want to hear about CPI or is it the CP lie I don't know today I think it's CPI When it's going up, it's the CP line. so slowering the pace of hiring the event is free.

I scan the QR code on your screen to register. Well, let's get down to the New York Stock Exchange and check in with Jim Cramer Jim your thoughts on this number, What it means for stocks, What it means from the Fed Well, I think that not much wages here, but almost everything that fell is going to continue to fall. A lot of things that are in stasis or about equal equilibrium are about to fall. Uh, there isn't anything in here that indicates that something is, uh, too low.

except for maybe airline fares which fell three. I Think that could go up, but I mean everything is closing numbers, not stocks? Yeah, everybody's going the fed's way and he's and yeah, you know. I I Look at the individual companies I Know the food prices are going to come down I Know the energy prices are going to keep coming down I Know that the supply chains for the home builders are now in pretty good shape I Know the supply chains for the for the auto companies. Oh, look at Master failure with the 999 donation and a really good opinion.

there have been some good opinions here. Okay, some of y'all have had actually really interesting opinions. some of you you know, uh, suggesting. look Elon like free speech isn't going to go away anyway.

Twitter's not going to go away anyway. Uh, these are great. but look at this one is Elon intentionally turning himself into basically an opinion anchor so we could escape the CEO role and keep people loving. Tesla Samar Are it's the exit? Oh damn, you just took it next level.

That's good. That's I Like that opinion and and I I agree there is a potential I Don't like to look through it because I deal with all the companies that are making this stuff and they're not putting through price increases anymore. That's over. If anything, the price decreases because of outfits like Costco It'll say you're charging too much and we're rolling things back.

So uh yeah, I mean fruits and vegetables is higher because there's a cartel that keeps those up and the government has to investigate that. But these things are really good. And again, remember I'm coming in from the company side. I I Don't care about these numbers.

Verify what the copies you're telling me. Well, if you're coming out from the company side, if costs are coming down, Does that mean the earnings recession that so many people have been predicting doesn't come to pass? this next earnings quote I Think that you're in this weird moment right now where the costs are coming down, uh, to the consumer very slightly. but they're coming down big to the Uh producer, so you'll still see some very good numbers. Uh, I'm not sure but I think crude is trying to put in a bottom.

Uh, but I don't think you're going to see a big increase by any means in gasoline. Uh, so there's just there's just a lot of things that are in this that have been in the works and they're finally coming into fruition. Uh, housing? Not yet. And like I said wages.

You need to see more layoffs lodging though. Man, that was good because they don't have the wage thing under control yet. But don't get that under control because a lot of companies want to see their stocks higher. and they know that.

The way to get their stocks hires to fire people. Yeah. Jim Thank you for the Deep analysis. That's such a terrible line.

Oh my gosh. If anybody wanted Jim Cramer hated you. You clip that right there. I mean he's not wrong with what he's saying.

Companies want their stocks higher. How do you get the stocks higher? You fire people. It's not. It's not wrong.

You look at, uh, the firing. That's even happened at any. almost any time you get a firing, announced stock goes up. It's It's remarkable almost every single time.

Anyway, this is a, uh, a glorious, glorious report folks. Uh, we we are. We are not at 6.9 right? Remember JP Morgan told us that 6.9 on this read not that it like honestly Part of Me Okay Let me put it this way about. JP Morgan Okay I Met this guy in Texas yesterday in this this tiny airport in Texas in like the middle of nowhere.

Like you go to land there. there's no light there. Uh like you call for a refuel and you wait 15 minutes like that's the airport. Okay and this guy.

he looks at me and goes Kevin I hate JP Morgan I'm suing him for 50 million dollars and he's like still got the Texas accent and everything. Uh, and I'm like I support you because I've been pissed at JP Morgan about a lot of things this year they've screwed up quite a few times for me. I Like the people that work there I Will say that the people that work there are great, but some of the systems have just put me in in some really doinky situations this year and it's been very frustrating. Um, I'll give you an example I needed to close out some options trades and they, uh, they put some kind of weird like trade hold on and it took like an extra 36 hours to close.

The trades cost me 125 Grand I'm like you scumbags again, not upset about the people but the system I don't know why I'm going out of JP Morgan rant uh anyway. uh so 7.1 really great. We've looked at this before. you know we're not going to reread this whole thing.

but I I Want to really highlight a couple things here when we go into this detailed section here: I Want to take another look at some of the important ones. Uh, a lot of these food sectors coming down. We're seeing so much more negative: the energies, the energy weights here. To the downside, we're not as big as what I think we're going to see next month.

Uh, you see these all here on the right. These are all like two percent 1.9 big deal I I Here let's hop on over to CNBC for a moment and just look at oil because I think we've had most of the uh We've ticked up again. four bucks or so on Brent here. So we've had a little take up again.

but let me see here. Yeah, yeah, here you go. All right. So where's November Okay, so right there look at that you see where the little yellow thing here is.

that's peak Oil. Uh, last week, last day of November as soon as you got into December that thing starts plummeting. Now it's again. it started ticking up again a little bit.

but after November this is you, you're in this hole. Imagine what CPI is going to look like next. Uh, next month if we even just stay under 80. I mean we're in a hole.

This is freaking amazing. Uh, this is really really good. Okay, somebody here with the name wth2021 says effing Insanity how it is that you people cheerlead a 7.1 inflation rate. It's absolutely insane.

What's insane is that you have clearly not heard that there's something called a trend. We are cheering an inflection and a continuation to the downside and a further inflection to the downside of a trend in something that's hellishly painful for people if you think we're actually cheering that. Yay! Prices went up 7.1 percent I Have a beach to sell you in the desert? All right. What else? Let's look over here.

Uh, how are things holding up on? let's look at the actual sticks here. Oh the Dixie Yeah, we'll look at that too. Okay, so QQQ uh, nice surge to 300. Oh my gosh, we surged to 300.

We pulled back a little bit and we moved to uh about uh about uh. 296 Now Uh okay, this is not Not I Don't believe this is going to be accurate. Don't buy in pre-market or after hours please. I think I've said that a million times, but I'm going to say it again here.

Uh, Tesla's relaxed a little bit 4.9 uh 7.6 Okay, and phase four, it's still at 320 is this is such a crazy performer you've got. uh Occidental actually I had a had a little run but but rotated back here a bit. Okay, okay, Coinbase: seven percent. So five five percent I Mean there's really nothing to the downside here.

It's uh, it's this is this is really incredible. It's pretty much everything's just green. Uh, with the exception of the short real estate fund the Drv. Yeah, yeah.

When when rates when yields fall, you know the expectation is that there will become a floor under real estate prices. Fallen People who are angry with low CPI or the losers afraid of missing the dip. There are definitely going to be people who are afraid of missing the dip. That's true.

Oh yeah, dxy let's look at that. Let's look at the dollar I look without looking. My assumption is it's gonna go down because yields are going down and when yields go down. Uh, you yeah, when yields go down you you reiterate uh, that the dollar is less valuable.

So so I'm short the dollar I'm a big fan of being short the dollar right now. I've actually been short the dollar since the summer I did think there was probably about a risk that we had another 10 to 12. Downside since the summer. uh, that's roughly what we ended up getting I Want to say it was somewhere around it was like July into July something like that somewhere over here I went short the dollar still unfortunately had a good about about that 10 movement here, right? It's somewhere around here 105 to about 115.

That's about that 10 downside where the dollars still rallied about. That's downside to a short is upside to the dollar rate. Uh, still rallied about 10 10. That's right along the expectation.

but I I expected that even we would go below where I started shorting here and that's what we're doing now and I've added to that short position. So yeah, no, the more yields fall, the more this this I think Trends down. Uh, this. this is uh, okay.

so I actually did a lot of Ta on this. uh I gosh I don't have my iPad out right now, but uh. one of the incredible things that you could do is you look at some of the wheat you put, put this on weekly or monthly the dollar and when you put this on weekly or monthly, it's so clear how when you get these like volatile spikes the it comes down. Now the dollar has trended up for the long term.

Now you know it's it's gotten very strong. but uh, but I do think there is probably a 30 potential short? Uh, that's just my take right now. We did a long course member live stream on it with all the research and stuff. Uh.

Speaking of which, we'll be doing a course member live stream soon. I'll send out the notification for that. Uh, remember, you get lifetime access if you use coupon code PP We've extended that till tomorrow night because we our schedule is so screwed we couldn't get back to people emailing us for bundles. If you email Kevin me Kevin.com we could do custom bundles for you.

yeah David Cox I don't know what Elon goat Monument is I'd like that I don't get it and I also uh I also don't know how to contact you like I don't know it's gonna be a DM or something on Twitter or Instagram All right I'll I'll look later and I'll look for goat. Uh all right well look this is phenomenal good. CP I missed To the downside: I'm very happy for everyone. uh I Wish everyone the best.

This is great. Have a wonderful day. Please make sure to subscribe. Come back for uh you know opinions and Analysis here I Do my best to give you as much research as possible on this channel.

That's all I do all day long and now I've got uh in January I've got researchers starting as well to help me just provide the best value possible I Believe in a bear Market Uh Even when times are tough and and it's easy to be gloomy, it's easy to be sad. The best thing that you personally could do is hold your head up, put one foot in front of the other and just keep going. Just keep. It's hard.

It's hard. just keep going. Keep keep doing your thing and uh, and don't give up. It's the most important.

All right We'll see in the next one folks. Good luck.