What's going on, guys, welcome back. Appreciate you guys tuning in. Uh, so we'll just kind of get started. We'll make things pretty quick.

Everybody knows that Jerome Powell was going to be speaking today. You know there's enough talking heads on the internet and like CNBC to tell you what they think or this or that the other about Jerome Powell but in in what his plans are. um I'm not gonna do it because again, it's irrelevant. There's a trillion people that that can do that.

Um, their guess is as good as mine. So whatever they're saying out and that's fine by me. So you know going forward we know he's going to be speaking today. They know there can be volatility rate Cuts this go 50 basis points, 70 whatever, right? So we know that's going to happen.

Alongside that, what we need to look at is kind of what's been happening. So first I'm going to start off with a tip. a trick that will help you in relationship to mindset and approach on the market with the information at hand. And that is when you get to back-to-back opposing crosses in a short period of time or even three.

Always expect consolidation and what I mean by that is high low trading range. If you pick up a textbook or read a book, they'll tell you. moving averages help you with understanding the trend. Well, they do a terrible job of that when the market is in consolidation.

Now you yourself are the ones going to determine consolidation. indicators might help this. That and the other I mean blah blah blah blah. But ultimately, if you're in consolidation, the Market's going back and forth.

It can be very tricky to trade because you can't hold positions very long. As soon as it goes up, you make some money, it's going to reverse down and you're going to take away the win et cetera et cetera et cetera. So again, all we're getting at is we've been in a moment of consolidation. The next trending move is going to happen when this high low range is broken out.

That's literally just. that's how it's going to happen. That's what's going to happen. It doesn't take a genius to figure that one out.

it's just. that's literally how it works. So we've been in a very back and forth. You know, 408-49 410 to 394 395 consolidation range.

When that range is fully taken out, buyers or sellers win it over. That's the next trending move. So what you have been seeing over the past couple weeks is back and forth back and forth, back and forth. that very well could probably is shaping your psychology right now, right? You've been in this couple week environment where you've been having a trade and then you know things going.

You might have to take profits really quickly because in the next day it's like going the opposite way. All right. And then next you know you're on a long and it works well. and then the next day it gaps down, runs reverses the gains and the next day squeezes up big move and then takes it all back then.

So you past couple weeks your psychology and your mindset's been all right fast. Move up, take some money, and then move them down. That will not be the case on this next one in my assumption because the next and when I say next one I Just mean like when we actually get a trending move right? So when we take out this range lower high, we are no longer going to be trading the environment that you've been used to this past couple weeks, it's going to be complete Trend up or down, there'll be some dips. Sure, blah blah blah.

but it's not going to be this back and forth whipsawed even getting used to. Okay, so uh. that being said, we know pal speaks, blah blah blah. Pretty much what's going on right now is we're trapped in a high load consolidation range and it's this range when it's taken out that will lead us to the next trending move in the market.

and that is going to be the move that people make money on big swings. Oh I Love trading. It's so much fun. You're gonna have a bunch of people posting probably some profit pictures and and oh, the market killed it and whatever.

Okay, that's because the market is trending right. When things are trending, things are easier. Moves are more fluent, right? It's easy to make some money, right? And there's a higher probability that more people make money and the more people that make money, the more likelihood you would be to see more profit pictures, right? That's the psychology and the nature of the Beast that we're in. So you're in this back and forth range when we break out and we Trend more people will make money, there'll be a trending move, things will be more fluent.

you'll be more likely seeing posts and stuff about that. Okay, so 2 30 P.m Powell speaks okay pretty much like I I could talk about and I will talk about the moving average. But it's mainly it's this this trading range that we're in. Okay, so this is kind of what I'm I'm watching for the day.

Um, so number one, we're on a bullish move. We had a bullish cross, so if I just go ahead and anchor some V-waps I'm pretty sure we already took them out yesterday, right? So if we had to Anchor View apps we broke above the 50 SMA Like right here. So I'm going to add some anchor View apps really quickly for the most recent bullish cross. You'll kind of see how this is all it's It's just all shaping Authority sounds like right in there.

So I think it's from the low. Yeah, so that would be the 50 SMA break. And then the 10 SMA was like right above it. so it's pretty much the same.

There's almost no need for me adding another one. Um, so we'll just go with this one. This one's fine for now. So pretty much this right here.

Um, and let me double check real quick. Yeah, it's close enough. All right. So this red line right here.

This is pretty much the anchor v-wap from this Bullish Cross. So what this means is everyone that was getting long or all the volume in the market participating long on this move, their average ownership price would be this red line. Okay, and we're just now getting below that. We ran down to it yesterday, we bounced, couldn't hold broke below, and then started.

Kind of just like chopping and maintaining right about there yesterday. So to me, that first says that the volume weighted average price of our most recent, uh, most recent bullish move um, is arguably failing. maybe failing. Etc Okay, we know that we're not bearish until the market alt uh, J click on this one.

We know we're not bearish until the market breaks below that red line. I just added on the screen that's the 50 Simple moving average. So until we go below that, the market doesn't shift momentum down. Okay, but if the price is breaking below the V web here from that move, it tells us that the immediate momentum of this move isn't sh that like isn't strong enough to hold us over the view app.

Therefore, we might retest the 50.. Okay, so pretty much what I'm watching right now is: does the price slam down to the 50 today? Do we bounce the 50? SMA Do we reclaim this View App price at like, basically 402 and that's pretty much where we're at. You know, wait till Powell speaks Does the market end up maintaining over right? Does it maintain over the V-wap And then the last thing would basically be like alt uh J there. This is also the 10 SMA So right now we're below short-term moving averages over the longer term moving average.

Okay, so this right here was our bullish Cross Market goes up and literally that was. that was the bullish cross there. Or wait, it was actually right here. But never mind.

So yeah, this is the bullish cross. That's when we got a Buy Signal last in the market right there. Okay, Market just gets ripped on the CPI. All right, the volume weighted average price of the bullish move is this red line.

We come down to it and we break below so the momentum of this V-wap doesn't hold. we go below it. now. below that View App support is ideally down to here: 398.

Okay, short-term resistance is now this V web and or the 10 Simple Moving Average. So short-term resistance is here. Longer term support is here. So I'm kind of expecting the market can roll over and maybe retest down at this price of 397.73 today? Um, um, yeah.

I Think that's a possible outcome obviously. So pretty much what I'm watching and and it'll be a little different because the Market's trending up so this might be creeping up towards like 398 to 399s. But Ultimately, I will be short-term bearish below the price of 402. with no more of a bearish Target than 398 and I will only flip back to Long bias um, in the short term over the 402.

or if it's a bullish bounce off of 398s, Um, and that? that's pretty much it. So yeah, just wait for Powell to speak volatility and then we'll have more to talk about in the days to come. All right guys, take caring, have a great day.