Foreign. So listen up. A guy who beat the market for 30 years is now coming out for the first time in a decade talking about the way to invest in this market and talking about the Everything bubble. Now this name you haven't heard a lot lately I Promise you.

Seth Clarman This dude is a billionaire. Respected by everyone in fact. Warren Buffett Literally said that this dude is probably one of the only ones he's going to trust with his own money. This guy is now coming out with two interviews, talking about how to invest in this market and warning about the Everything bubble.

He doesn't talk often, but when he does, it's important now. I'm going to link the full interviews Below in the description section of my video. Don't be lazy. go watch the full interviews.

But in this video. I'm going to break down the main highlights of what he said because I think it's super valuable. Very important. 10 15 minutes of some of the best advice for investors I Heard in a long ass time.

so for sure there's more money in public markets. Things have become somewhat more efficient. but I also see a short-term orientation that tells me that it's possible some pricing has actually become less efficient. I Think when you look at Meta, the Stock's been all over the place in a reasonably short period of time, falling to under 100.

Then Rising back up to almost 300 literally months apart for a large, well-established company that I think everybody can analyze. So I think that there are opportunities. The first thing he talks about is the fact that this Market is very different than the market that he operated in the 80s and 90s. A lot more money is in the market.

A lot more expectations are in this market. There's a different time frame. The demands for money managers right now from professionals is quick is short term results. Now today this year, the amount of pressure because of all this competition in the market that was not existent back in the day drives a very short term oriented Market and that caused massive volatility.

Now he uses Meta formerly known as Facebook as an example of how a blue chip Mega cap stock behaves like a freaking absolutely insane penny stock. Up and down. Up and down. And I totally agree with him.

but Meta is not the only one. Look at how Nvidia has behaved lately. Look at: Tesla Blue Chip Stocks are now trading as if they were penny stocks because this Market is getting excessively volatile because of all the short sidedness. Now he's saying that and I'm hearing money.

I'm hearing opportunity to make a lot of money. This is what this dude is saying between the lines. Listen to what he says because he's not saying that just because he's not bitter about the market. This isn't the get off my loan Grandpa He's telling you that this is a money making opportunity and I'll explain in a second.

Why? Because look, if the market has become very extremely short-sighted you have two options. Option number one is Rampage yourself shoehorn yourself and basically Stampede to the point where everybody are playing that short-term game and play with everybody in the same little. Arena Or you can take advantage of this because when the market is extremely short-sighted which it is right now I Completely agree with Seth Clarman. Not that Seth Freaking Clarman needs my approval I Mean come on.

But look when the market is so inefficient, when the market is so short, what's going on? Well that creates a lot of Arbitrage Now the first thing they teach in business school. Now when I got my MBA that's the first little first thing they taught us is the Assumption of the perfect Market. The market is perfect, which means everybody has all the information at real time and all the stocks are priced perfectly all the time because all this information is immediately priced in. That's a nice assumption for business school.

and thank you for my MBA Professor for that. but that doesn't happen in real life. If it was the real life, we didn't have the stock market the way we know it today. Now Arbitrage exists Opportunities exist.

Specific individual companies get mispriced all the time. The overall Market is kind of good at pricing. Overall, what's going on? but individual stocks get mispriced all the time. Tesla is a great example that shows you how insanely undervalued stocks with so much open source information can be and it's not the only stock.

I Can think of a couple more volunteer I had a little palantir in my throat but the thing that he's saying here is like look guys, you can play the short game. But if you play the long game and you find good companies in areas that you understand better than most and in companies you research better than most, then if you play the long game, you can make a lot of money from this. Arbitrage This is the ultimate advice from from Seth Carmen is essentially don't play this short-sighted game. Everybody is basically crowding that space.

If you play the long game and you pick great businesses and your dollar cost average into these businesses over time, build up your average slowly, then your chances of making money exponentially outperform the rest of the idiots who are crowding into the short-term games are much higher now. I'm not saying that short term can't make money. Of course they are. I Have friends who make a lot of money.

Day trading, swing trading I Don't understand this game, especially in this market. It's absolutely insane to me to try to play this game unless you're a pro. Unless you spend 24 7 in front of a screen screen and this is your life. This is not the game for you.

You don't want to be showing up with a knife to a gunfight. see what I'm saying here? So in fact, if you ever needed one, here's a billionaire who's beaten the market for the past 30 years. He has an average return of 20 per year for the past 30 decades. Hey, three decades.

Sorry, about 30 decades. But you get my point. He's telling you, play the long game. This is literally what we teach on our Patreon Peyton.com Forward slash: Tom Nash Long-term DCA beats short-sighted markets every single time, you know.

I I The argument for Index Funds is that you're going to have low transaction costs near zero and you're going to have, um, exposure to the market. You're not going to underperform the market, but neither will you outperform the market. I Think for the average person out there who isn't terribly sophisticated and is able to take a long-term view. I Don't see anything wrong with Index funds, but I Think The one of the critical things about the long-term return from Invest testing is that it depends on the entry price.

So if you enter when the Market's very expensive at a high valuation, you may be disappointed because you might match the index, but the index may not do very well from there. So the other thing is, you don't want to go into Index funds, experience a bad market, and then bail out. That's what investors tend to do. They get in at the wrong time, and they get out at the wrong time.

And so investors who go into the next fund should go in with the idea that they're going to stay through thick and thin. The second point which I want to emphasize that he made in this video is about ETS he's been asked about ETFs and Andrew obviously says look Warren Buffett says that if you know ETFs is the best thing since sliced bread do you agree and Seth Clarin gives a very interesting response. Now he says look for most people yeah it's it's not a bad option but the problem is that most people are morons now of course that is an ex an exaggeration of it's going to be a meme on Twitter I can see it on X sorry Elon so that's an exaggeration of what he said. um but what he actually meant is something like this look if I build you a fitness program which I know is going to work perfectly.

It has a you know nutrition, workouts, sleep and if you you know if I build it to you I know it's going to work it's gonna within a year you're gonna be a completely different human being right? That's the same. That's an ETF an ETF is you know the Vo S P 500 Over the course of 10 years you're going to get eight to ten percent a year. It's kind of. you know it's it's not a secret, the problem is and this is what he says in this clip is that most people are morons and most people are going to be timing this.

They're going to get impatient. They're going to sell, They're going to buy. They're gonna actively trade these ETFs Instead of staying put for 10 years, 15 years, 20 years, they're going to be trading in and out of these ETFs essentially killing the whole efficiency of this. It's the same thing from.

you know if I get a fitness plan A nutrition plan which is perfect. but I don't you know? don't stick to it because I in the middle of the night pizzas, it's not gonna work. The plan is great. The question is, can a human being actually implement this plan? Not a lot of human beings can, but the ones you can will make money.

So ETFs are great. As long as you stick for the long term you stay for 10 years. Don't touch it. Forget the password.

That's what they're saying ETFs are wonderful. As long as you can stick to the program, don't trade it. Don't mess with it now. In fact, just today I posted I posted the five ETFs to buy and hold for life and those Ivtfs on our patreon and also for channel members on the YouTube channel member section.

Go check it out right now! One of the really a lot of cool stuff we post on a community and on Discord and patient. Go check it out Now the first thing is we've been in an everything bubble. I Think that a lot of money has flowed into virtually everything. Historically, low interest rates, even zero rates have precipitated that bubble.

You have to look at the moment you're in and say which part of this is real, which part of this may be enduring, and which part of this may look completely different as soon as tomorrow. And how do I position myself maintaining somewhat of a longer term perspective Because I think trying to trade day-to-day is not a game. anybody really is well equipped to win. When he talks about the Everything bubble, you have to understand what he says here.

What he says is something really important he says, look, when the market is so inflated because of the you know money situation, because of the monetary policy post the pandemic flooded the market, so much money created so much pockets of of this publishness. what happens is that it it creates a much more volatile market. Now if you combine it with these earlier comments about the short-sightedness, so it's the same, is kind of a different side of this same argument. What he's saying here is two things of a similar story.

On the one hand, the short-term expectations for money managers right now, which was the first part, are pushing the market into this erratic behavior. On the other hand, when the market is so published, when there's a lot of pockets in The market of inefficiency and a lot of pockets of bubbles that have been created, then this also contributes to this insane volatility. So what Seth is saying here? And it's super important that this Market we have right now is probably the most volatile Market we have ever seen in history because of these combined factors that he explains. Now, if the market is extremely volatile in the short term and probably is the most volatile we've seen in history, is it a good idea to play that? Well, if you're a gambler, sure, gamble away.

You know, option gamblers in this situation. Sure, they'll make a lot of money if they get it right. But for long-term investors, a speculative volatile Market is the worst time to trying time because you're going to get burned if you don't get it exactly right and your chances of doing that are very, very slim on a consistent basis. So what he's essentially saying here for the second time is: play the long-term game.

Don't play the short-term game. Academic definition of value is by the stock that's cheapest by the numbers. but I Don't think that's what Graham and Dodd wanted. In fact, it's clear that they were talking about earnings power and the growth possibilities in a business, even if they're hard to determine.

And so I think value has to be determined for every company. The way I think about the market is not that there are growth stocks and value stocks, but rather that all stocks May hold value, but that all stocks also could potentially be overvalued. So you have to have a mechanism a rubric for figuring out the value of different kinds of assets, different kinds of businesses and then figure out which ones are trading particularly mispriced. This clip is actually very interesting because in this and this about his valuation process and the metrics and everything and he says basically, look guys, the whole distinction value investors and growth investors is basically horse baloney.

It's a bunch of nonsense Google crap that they've been fitting you for clicks on YouTube None of this actually makes any sense. There's no point in saying well, I'm a value investor Which means I cannot buy growth stocks Well, I'm a growth investor I can't buy value stocks. It's nonsense. What he's telling is, look, obviously we have you know metrics at which people classically have valued stock, but over focusing on these is just as bad as ignoring them.

If you are absolutely ignoring price to sales ratios, you're ignoring multiples. You don't run your DCFS You're just as bad as the guy who has a DCF number and that DCF number is God's gospel. Oh my. God my DCF says it's an eight dollar stock I Cannot buy it at nine dollars over focusing on metrics And you know these models and not focusing at all.

It's the same thing. It's mirror image of the same moronic. Behavior That's what he's telling you here. Be smart.

Now again, what he's basically showing here here is sides of this very interesting story. like even when I see people do a DCF model now on our community you obviously we have our own DCF modeling skills we teach on our paper and Technical Comfort Dom Nash and I see a lot of DCF models circulating on the internet on on on X on a bunch of social profiles and I would just see people just blast their growth rates on the company 30 percent. Oh my guy, Why did you put 30 on that? Well I don't know or you know historically they're growing 30 or some analyst said it's gonna go by 30 or the company is guiding for 30, right? This is not how you run in. DCF This is literally what Seth Klarman is telling you.

You have to have a process. You have to have an objective process of how to basically model. If you want to be actually a proper, actually good investor. you have to rely on metrics like multiples on these shifts.

But do it in a Smart Way Build The process. Build an objective process. For example, the way we calculate growth on our patreon, we actually look at return Capital return on equity and we actually have an objective way to set a growth percentage for every single company based on its own numbers. No assumptions, None of this.

Um I think it's 30. You want to learn this? Join the academy Toms Academy We have two final spots left before we go to 100 per spot. bit income forward slash Tom Nash The last two spots are up for grabs. first come first serve.

But basically what Seth is telling you? hey, stop trying to guess the market. Stop trying to time the market. The market is the most volatile it's been in a while. It's very published.

It's insanely short-sighted Find something you understand better than others. Go long term. If you want to play the ETFs go long, don't trade in and out. stay the course.

become a better investor. I Think Seth Clarman is one of the Ogs. He's one of the best in the business. I Hope he makes more interviews so we can make more content obviously, but also because he's actually giving you great advice.

Shout out to everybody who stayed this long in the video. Let me know in the comments. if you stay to this point I Want to see how many of the Ogs are all the way through to this point in the video. Thank you so much! Don't forget to check out our opinion bit income for Tom Nash Join the community.

We have an amazing Discord with 5 000 members that are talking about Tesla Palantir stocks investing ETFs everything. Would love to see you there I'll see you next video.