Painful, especially since we are looking at the possibility of an economic recession globally broken. Miller says the U.S debt crisis is worse than he imagined. The mainstream media is fear-mongering like never before. In fact, Nick T is telling us that three-month annualized core inflation fancy word is going back up.

Oh my. God Is the chart actually accurate? Is the mainstream media accurate to be regularly interviewing fear mongerers and highlighting the depths of Despair that are coming and taking advantage of Americans ordinary, hard-working Americans who are not well versed in the data they're being presented. Probably in fact, in this video, we're unfortunately going to have to tear a new one into the mainstream media and that is going to include Nick T of the Wall Street Journal because I hate to say it usually I Like what he says, but boy oh boy, he is blatantly wrong with the chart that he's presented. We're gonna break all of this down in this video.

This is a critical video on what's going on with inflation because if you misunderstand the concepts that I'm going to break down in this video, you could be horribly Mis positioned. No, this is not personalized Financial Advice for you: You gotta look at this data and figure it out yourself. Yeah, I'm a financial advisor Yeah! I Run an actively manage ETF and I got courses on building your wealth I Got all that? Oh yeah, we have a price increase tonight. Email us for bundles at Kevin.com That's going to be the biggest price increase tonight, so make sure you get in before that.

But look, we gotta understand what's going on because when the mainstream media initially looks at soft inflation data and then their first reaction is oh, okay, what can we resort to to create more fear you? You know what they do they start talking about El Nino I Kid you not Bloomberg is now resorting to talking about El Nino because El Nino is going to reanimate inflation. that supply chain woes are going to come back and high prices are coming because of El Nino Now and if it's not, El Nino It's gonna be the banking crisis. And if it's not the banking crisis, it's the debt ceiling they've always got to. Pedal Use some form of fear I Understand the game I Get it? I have dramatic titles sometimes in the videos, but every time you look at my videos and you actually listen to the content of the video, we break down what's actually going on whereas you look at the depths of some of these articles on in the mainstream media.

the core of their argument is fear. That's the problem. It's the Titleist fear and the core of their argument is fear. and I think they're purposely misleading people and I think that's disgusting I feel like the Bears are shocked that the consumers are actually holding up and look, if the consumers were falling apart I'd be the first to flip-flop and tell you we're screwed I've done it before I'll do it again every single day I make like seven cups of coffee and I sit here and I study myself with my team.

you name it and we go. Are We Wrong every single day every single day and I will be the first to tell you. But we need to understand what's going on with consumers and I'll tell you it's not what we expected. Look at the beginning of the year, we saw household savings fall before the pandemic.

household savings were like five thousand bucks. Then in January we were at 12 700 which is like a huge boost, right? But that was down from 13 700. So we saw a decline in savings and that made people think okay, here we go. All right, savings are gonna go down.

the bear argument is going to be right. we're soon enough going to see people lose their jobs and then we're going to have a massive earnings recession and a slump that's yet to be priced into stocks. Well, what actually happened was mind-blowing Bank of America just released their 2023 survey of consumers. their middle income consumers they say quote, feel fairly confident near term and have Financial buffers to draw on should economic headwinds start to blow harder.

In fact, not only do they highlight the strength of spending of consumers and Airlines and Food Services but they suggest that consumers now have higher savings balances than they did in Q4. In other words, savings balances have started to rise again. Which if you actually look at the St Louis Fed and you look at the savings rate, it's true. The savings rate for consumers has skyrocketed 80 percent since 11 months ago in June of 2022.

In June of 2022, the savings rate was 2.7 percent, people were spending more on credit, and it was actually the same month that we hit our technical recession two quarters in a row of negative GDP q1 Q2 of 2022.. that's when the savings rate was the lowest, and since then it's been in rebounding. Again, it's up 80 percent, it's at 5.1 percent, and it's rising on top of the fact that people have excess savings. This is leading some on Wall Street Now to say huh.

it seems like households are quote coping with higher inflation. On top of that, you have a bear like TS Lombard. They're always the bear that I go to because they're usually so bearish. In addition to Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson What does TS longboards say? Well, Consumer Price Pressures remain elevated, but have moved past their Peak and inflation angst is more or less quote old news.

In other words, normal hard-working Americans are becoming convinced that yes, inflation happened. Prices went up, insurance for our cars and homes, and prices for groceries restaurants. All of these prices are up, but that rate of growth is falling which is what the Federal Reserve cares about. the rate of growth falling.

Unfortunately, most Americans misunderstand inflation. Take this tweet from a conversation this morning: Sam writes quote I am not seeing any prices going down yet I'm not sure what these reports are or where they get them from. Well, first of all, the reports are coming from the Bureau of Labor Statistics which we understand they put together the CP lie we know. Okay, yeah, maybe the data is rigged all right.

Maybe it's just designed to make Joe Biden look good. But then again, his approval ratings are at the lowest since a World War II of presidents this far into their presidential first term. And uh, let's just say there's only been one president that has had a lower approval ratings and that was Reagan Other than that, Biden is number two in terms of lowest approval ratings right now. So if if the government's trying to rig the data and make Biden look good, it ain't working now.

Of course some people are like oh well, maybe the dad is so so bad they don't want him to be the number one worst president they just allowed to read overdue Maybe. But then you look at private surveys like what's actually happening with wholesale car prices s p or ISM purchasing manager indices and you reiterate falling prices. Or at least that price increases are slowing. Now that's a really complicated sentence.

So I decided to draw it out. What if I could prove to you that inflation could go up 23.75 or prices could go up 23.75 and the Federal Reserve would cut rates? You'd probably think that I'm crazy. You'd probably think there's no way in hell. Well, that's actually how a lot of people start when they get into my programs on building your wealth like real estate zero to millionaire real estate, investing stocks and psychology money or this AI program.

people like what am I going to learn and then they they listen to the lectures and they're like I never thought about it that way. That's called an Aha moment. Well, hopefully I could try to help you with an Aha moment right now. So I drew it out to try to make it simple to this: Twitter user.

Sam Sam this is dedicated to you Sam Let's say you and your girlfriend or boyfriend. whatever. you go to McDonald's and you used to spend twenty dollars on a meal, but now it costs 21 Or it used to cost 21. In other words, it went from 20 to 21, then it went up to twenty three dollars and then went to 24 and then it went to 24.5 and then it went to 24.75 In other words, prices skyrocketed twice.

Prices went up from 20 to 24.75 at a rate of 23.75 Over this time period, 23.75 That's insane. Now you might think Kevin there's no way in hell with a 23.75 percent inflation set or or a read of price increases of 23.75 that the FED could cut rates. There's no way. Well, there is.

See, the Federal Reserve is concerned with stable prices, not low prices. They do not have a mandate to give you low prices. Now that's unfortunate that prices are higher. But that's just reality.

We have to talk about fact and truth. And the reality is, prices are higher and they're not coming down. at least not anytime soon. So where on this chart are there stable prices? Well, prices are stable over here and yellow on the left, and prices are stable over here on the right.

And where on the chart are prices unstable? Well, in the pink zone, right where prices went up five percent, then 9.5 then 4.35 percent. But the stable prices are over here where prices are rising at two percent and 1.02 percent. And in the pink environment, the Federal Reserve raises rates. In the yellow environment, the Federal Reserve reduces rates.

The FED cares not about the 23.75 They don't care at all. They only care about unstable prices. That's it. And once you understand that the Federal Reserve doesn't exist to make things cheaper for you, They exist basically to make rich people more Rich.

Uh, but once you understand the game, you could join that right. You understand that the way to get rich in America is to own assets, businesses, stocks, and real estate. That's how you get rich in America. It's very simple once you understand the game, you can get started with like three percent down on a house.

It's insane. The tools they give you to actually build wealth in America And then people like open mortgage insurance so little Financial Education. It's a problem in America But that's okay. That's why we have a channel.

and that's why we're trying to provide insight. So what does this mean going forward? Well, it means a lot of consumers are very confused about inflation. They hear, oh, what inflation's coming down can't can't be true Man, my hamburgers are more expensive, My insurance is more expensive. Yeah, and that's true.

And those are the same people who, unfortunately don't even realize what's coming. That disinflation will lead to rate cuts, and then they'll miss out on the asset boom where prices of stock start skyrocketing Again, They'll miss out because they misunderstood inflation. It's kind of like when I pitched Open Door in my course member live stream on April 20th, 4, 20. and I told everyone this is going to two or three dollars from a buck 40.

buck 50 right around there. And that's exactly what it's doing right now because we actually looked at the core fundamentals and we're like oh my gosh, they just burned the bondholders real estate prices are going up Open Door is going to kill it even though I hate the company, they're going to kill it in the short term. That's exactly what's happening. That same kind of blindness.

It's what's going to happen to people when they don't adopt artificial intelligence. I Mean consider what the Financial Times this morning said they said that artificial intelligence could boost GDP by seven percent above what GDP is going to be over the next 10 years globally. Global GDP Boost by seven percent means American GDP will probably go up 30 percent over the next 10 years. That is going to be a boon to stocks.

It is going to be amazing for American stocks. However, it's going to be bad for up to 300 million jobs. The Financial Times thinks up to 300 million jobs could end up being exposed to automation. This is exactly why you want to start learning how to incorporate artificial intelligence into your productivity cycle.

And join those courses on building your wealth. Get lifetime access to them. Link down below. Email us for bundle at Kevin.com If you don't need a bundle, check out right away because you want to get in before that big price increase.

It's coming tonight. So where are people spending money? and what does this mean for? CPI Why is Nick T wrong then? Well, first of all, people aren't spending money on meat. literally. Tyson Foods Thought their business would be resilient and that you know they'd have strong pricing power because meat is inelastic.

Oops. Apparently, meat is actually an elastic business, which means people spend less when prices go up. now. All of a sudden, Tyson's beef business is considered to be struggling even as cattle prices are really high because Supply is down.

so cattle is expensive because Supply is down. But they can't sell meat at higher prices because nobody's buying it anymore. Well, less people are buying it. Instead, people seem to be spending money on luxury air travel with more people looking for perks in first class travel or booze coming back to Airlines and less people are spending money where the media is telling you there's pricing power.

The media told you just a few days ago that Nestle has pricing power that they raise prices on kitkats. by nine percent. While reports are now coming out that consumers are actually skipping snacks and grocery lines more, they're spending more money on experiences not on those kitkats. But then again, media lying to you is not a surprise.

So what did we learn from? Nick T Nick T Just posted a chart that said core CPI is up on a three-month annualized basis and obviously, if Nick T the fed's mouthpiece is talking about this, this is concerning, right? Well, there are two problems with Nick T's chart from The Wall Street Journal mainstream Media same corporation that just fired Tucker Carlson Tucker Carlson by the way, now bringing his show to Twitter which I by the way, think is absolutely brilliant. I Personally, think on a tangent here that Tucker Carlson could probably 10x his income by going to Twitter If his contract was 35 million dollars and he gets a million subscribers on Twitter paying him 10 bucks a month, he's looking at 120 million dollars that's almost triple his income. On top of that, he would keep sponsor Revenue he could potentially 5 to 10 x his income. It's absolutely brilliant, But let's analyze what Nick T said on Twitter So he told us Well, the six-month rate of inflation is 4.8 percent, but the three-month rate of inflation is 5.1 percent.

Oh my gosh, that's an acceleration. Oh fodder for the Bears The Bears are like, oh yeah, oh give me that tweet Um, so good. So delicious. They say two problems with the chart.

One, the chart is partly propped up by a 4.4 rise in used car data 4.4 rise in used car data. That sounds bad. Well, it sounds bad. but Wall Street is already looking right through that because if you actually look at the last four months of wholesale used car prices, they're plummeting a lot.

April was one of the biggest declines year over year in used car prices. Why isn't that showing up in CPI data? Because the CBI lags a lot and so that means prices are actually falling. So yeah, some of the data lags in the CPI report, but this has been the problem for a very long period of time. The CPI data is lagging.

Fortunately, it is falling, so it's obvious Even with it lagging, it's falling. But let me try and experiment with you. Let's take Nick T's 5.1 compared to that 4.8 right? Let's do one adjustment to it. Let's just remove used cars.

Well, if Nick T's chart says a three-month annualized inflation is 5.1 percent, then the way he achieves that is you could take 5.1 and divide it by 4, and then you'll get how much they're multiplying an average three month inflation by, right? So they're taking 1.275 for a three month period and they're multiplying it by four and they're getting to 5.1 Okay, well, quick math. If we take 11.4 basis points, which is how much used car prices went up in this last month, we multiply that by three, assuming zero impact from used cars, not even deflation yet, then what you're going to do is you're going to subtract from this. 0.34 minus 0.342 to be exact. Okay, 1.275 minus 0.342 What do you get? You get 0.933 multiply that by four to get back to an annualized figure, and what do you actually have? Not 5.1 percent, but 3.73 In Otherwise, in other words, the annual rate of inflation on Nick T's chart.

if you just removed this big surge you got from used car prices, which we already know, used car prices are falling would actually be substantially lower on all accounts on Nick T's chart. So once again, looking at lagging data, but folks, it's not just used cars, look at housing which historically lags. Not only does housing historically lag, but housing accounted for sixty percent of the inflation we just saw in this inflation report. Now, this isn't to say that high rents are a good thing, but rent growth is slowing.

In fact, rent growth slowed to the lowest level since July of 2022, which is exactly what Jerome Powell told us to look at. He told us to look at Services X housing, which is the most important part of what the Federal Reserve is paying attention to and that number came in at just 1.36 annualized. That's nothing. here.

it is on the chart well below two percent. In fact, some are going as far as saying whether you look at some good segments like Apparel News or Services segments housing Leisure Hospitality they're all indicating softening pressure. Hotel rates fell at their largest rate in the last 20 years. Personally, I think that has a lot to do with Airbnb This morning, in the course member Livestream, we reviewed the fundamentals of Airbnb In.

In the dramatic pressure the company is now putting on Supply and marketing that is Airbnb is trying to do everything they can to get more people into Airbnb to list properties on Airbnb but that's going to have the effect of forcing prices down so they can get their nights booked up A very important metric for their stock. Their stock is falling because Knights booked fell now. Unfortunately, if you increase Supply you're going to squeeze prices down, which squeezes the profit for hosts. It actually potentially hurts the whole point of doing Airbnb which is to make money, but now you're squeezing that out and you're potentially creating an even worse service which I'm not the biggest fan of the service you often get on Airbnb I Think it's very inconsistent now.

obviously one report from Airbnb or one CPI here report does not make a trend, but let's put it this way: the consumer is still strong and it's actually strengthening, not weakening which is mind-blowing per Bank of America survey. On top of that, housing is recovering which is bullish for our real estate startup. and if this trend continues for the next four months by let's say September 20th 2023, mark this date and hold me to it by March 20th 2023. If we stay on this trend, I believe the Federal Reserve will initiate their first 25 basis point cut.

If we have four reports like this, this one and three more, we'll get a 25 BP cut. What do you think stocks are going to do at that point? Thanks so much for watching! If you found this perspective helpful, consider sharing the video. Check out the programs I'm building a rough link down below and we'll see in the next one now. I Want you to know this when it comes to AI time is what's going to make you money, and if you can prove that value to an employer, you'll always be able to be employed.

So this is another way of making sure that you don't get replaced.