Five reasons why I think the US is headed into one of the worst recessions and stock market crashes in history. 2023 is a very funky year the way I see it: I See three scenarios for 2023. scenario number one and I call it the most unlikely scenario like Grandpa stopping drinking alcohol for example. This is the scenario with 2023 explodes and we go to the Moon I would put it very unlikely.

The other scenario, which is probably a 50 50. The 2023 is a sideways year for the stock market. We go up, we go down, but generally we stay pretty much flat. anything.

The most likely scenario more likely than not a little bit over 50 is the 2023 is a horrible year where we see a horrible recession, a horrible market pullback, and probably one of the worst crashes we've seen in history. The data points to this: I'm going to share it with you so you can go back, check me, verify, and actually challenge me in the comment section. But if you just needed the bottom line here, here you go, no problem. Now let's get to the actual analysis.

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We have five reasons: five indicators that are showing me that 2023 is going to be a very bad year for the stock market and the economy in general. Now the first indicator is that we haven't had a proper crash in the US since 2008. Before that, that was 2000, before that, 1991, before that 1981, before that 1973 I can do this all day I'm a nerd, but basically since 1930, all the way to 2023, we had 14 crashes in total. That's a crash every six and a half years.

A property session in the US happens every six and a half years. Statistically historically now, I Know a lot of you will say 2020 was a proper recession, and technically it was. We had two negative quarters of GDP I Totally get it, but to call it a proper recession, it's a little bit of a stretch. But yes, I'll concede to the fact that it was a technical recession, but a proper recession we haven't had in 15 years and it's long overdue based on statistics and history.

However, talking about statistic and history as far as the future predictor is a little bit of a problematic thing. I Get it. It's the old story about the guy who comes up to the roulette table and sees that four times in a row it was a red color. so he bets on black thinking that black is you.

The fact that you could go to a roulette table and somebody's got a lot of money on seven I Said why do you have money on stuff it's due and what it means Do well. look at the previous roles because they'll show you the previous roles and Seven hasn't appeared in 20 rolls or whatever the numbers they put. So it's due. No, it's not do.

Having said that at the end of the day, we still haven't had a proper recession in 15 years and at some point it has to come. There's no way we go for 30 40 years without a recession. Does it Come in 2023, 2024, 2025. Nobody really knows.

We can only guesstimate. Now, the second thing I want to mention is the real estate market. The real estate market is taking a major beating right now. Just two years ago, the mortgage rate was 2.6 percent.

It was really attractive. It's pretty much free money you buy you rent, you make money. 2.6 interest. It's nothing.

Right now. The interest rates right now is almost seven percent. Six point nine percent in just two years. At seven percent mortgage rate.

it's literally unsustainable to invest in real estate. It's just too darn expensive. Not to mention the fact that people who actually are paying mortgages to live at a property are now paying way more double more that they were paying before. And it's a heavy burden, especially since this is going to cause real estate prices to calm down and the real estate price is coming down.

A lot of these people who cannot afford these mortgage payments anymore are now underwater. Which means that their asset actually is worth less than what they paid for. So there's no reason to keep paying mortgage for an asset that's worthless. A lot of them will default, Banks will be stuck with a lot of extra properties, which they will have no choice but to dump at the market, causing an even steeper decline in real estate prices.

Does it happen tomorrow? I Don't know. Will it be as bad as 2008? Probably not. but who knows. But the fact of the matter is, the real estate market is long overdue For a pullback.

Because of these numbers is just a question of time. Now the next thing is the supply of money. And I know you might have seen these click baits 80 of the US dollar over the past two years. It's a whole bunch of horseshit.

It's click bait. It's absolutely false. You have to look at M2 The supply of money now since 2020 M2 went up in one year by 26 by 4 trillion dollars. That's a lot.

That's a 26 increase in the supply of the USB dollars in a year, which is the highest increase we had since 1943.. Now in 2021 to 2022, it wasn't as bad. We only increased it instead of four by two trillion dollars, which is still a historically High number. Which means we had an increase from 16 to 22 trillion dollars in just two years.

It's a major major increase. It's still very, very high. maybe not 80, but still historically high. Now the thing is, the damage have already been done and still it has to burn through the system.

Which means inflation isn't going to go away as fast as people would like it to. and that's a great segue to my next Point Inflation. Now look, everybody is celebrating the fact that inflation has peaked and it is true. We came down from 9.1 percent all the way to 6.4 percent in January.

That's great, but we're still three times higher than the desired normal rate of inflation. And if you wanted me to explain why two percent is the normal rate of inflation I might do a whole video about it if you guys wanted to comment below. If you want it, I'll do it on my second Channel be because nobody's going to watch it here. But let's go back to a point since.

I Digress: So it's 6.4 percent. We're more than three times higher than two percent, which is our normal inflation rate. It is still extremely high. Not to mention the fact that the Slowdown rate of inflation has declined significantly.

We went down from 6.5 just to 6.4 in CPI in January. It's a very slow rate of decline. Now, if you look at the PPI The Producers price index, then the problems are really evident because that index, which basically measures the increase in prices of the raw materials and the goods we need to produce. The stuff we did went up by 0.7 which is double the anticipated rate.

so it's getting more expensive. which means CPI is not going to come down as fast as people would like it to. Which means that they're already high. Historically fast interest rate hikes we've seen of the past two years will continue.

This is the fastest pace of increase in interest we've seen in the last 40 plus years. We haven't seen this in four decades. We haven't gone from zero to five percent this fast since the vulgar days. And to think this isn't going to have an impact on the unemployment Market is a very dangerous assumption.

Right now, the unemployment Market is at 3.4 a historical low. We haven't seen that number since post-world War II It's incredibly low. It cannot go any lower its maximum employment right now. What's going to happen when interest rates keep going up because of inflation? because of everything? I Just mentioned.

Eventually, eventually the unemployment will have to go up. especially if this is the determination of the Fed. The FED is trying to actively raise the unemployment rate. They're literally telling you this.

But here's the thing. when unemployment Rises it doesn't rise from 3.5 to 4 to 4.5 When unemployment starts, it's a tidal wave. It's an avalanche. It will go from 3.5 to 7 to 8.

Just watch and see. it's not going to be pretty. Now the next thing I want to mention is another thing that will contribute to the increase in the rate of unemployment. The one thing that's holding up the unemployment rate at this historical low number right now is the consumption.

The the American public is consuming like there's not Morrow Everybody is buying like crazy, so unemployment stays very, very low. But here's the problem. If you look at what's going on under the hood, you're going to find out a lot of problems. The personal savings rate as a percentage of disposable personal income basically how much you're saving from your free cash flow as a normal human being, is at a historically low number.

usually at the six seven, eight percent. That's what usually people save on average, And of course, that number should be examined in a vacuum. You have to compare it to what's going on with credit cards. Right now, credit card debt went up in a single quarter by 61 billion dollars.

That's a historically High increase, quarter to quarter, one of the highest we've ever seen. If you also add up the fact that the U.S household debt is right now at a record level of almost 17 trillion dollars, you have to see the picture here. Now you have to understand how fast this U.S household debt is increasing. In the past two years, we went from 12 to 13 trillion dollars.

One trillion of increase in just 10 years, from 2010 to 2020, and some somehow we went from 13 to 17 in just three years. You have to see what's going on here. By the way, most of the US household that about 70 is mortgages. which is exactly why I mentioned the earlier section of mortgage rates doubling.

And look at what's going on with the US household debt. You have all these factors pushing down on this market like Khabib on Connor and at some point Conor is going to tap, the market will have to tap. At some point, it's inevitable. The question is, when a month, a year, two years, who knows I don't know I don't have a crystal ball? Nobody does.

That's the secret. all these Talking Heads and mystery media. They don't have the faintest idea when we just Know it's coming. We just don't know when.

So we are preparing and that's preparation is a whole subject for a whole different video. If you want to actually see a video of me breaking down how I'm preparing for this upcoming recession, let me know below if there's enough interest. I'll make another video as always. if you found value in this video and you are a supporter of my channel, I'd appreciate if you subscribe.

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