Everyone welcome to jobs data let me make sure the volume's up here let let me know if volume's okay obviously we're mobile. Here okay expectations are we are going to get a change in non farm payrolls of 265 000 last month we were at 390 000 unemployment rate is expected to stay flat at 36. Big number that we're looking for is the average hourly. Earnings number is it going to move more than 03.

Percent three percent is an annualized inflation rate for wages of three point six percent which is actually the same as the uh potential unemployment rate. We will see obviously uh hearts go out to uh shinzo who has been assassinated yesterday. Uh and uh. We don't yet know why let's get our jobs done now okay unemployment rate 36.

We matched change in non farm payroll. It did better wow. It did better than expected and the average month over. Month hourly earnings went up by the expectation of 03.

Percent. We got 372. 000 jobs the labor part of forced participation rate actually fell to 622 from 624. But this is actually a a beat for this month.

We did get a revision for last month of a subtraction of 74 000. Jobs but uh this month. We're actually beating by about 70 000. So you kind of see roughly that same shift there but a change in non farm payrolls comes in at a beat 372 000.

You have uh the unemployment rate staying at three point six percent and again those average hourly earnings are coming in at point three percent. The uh prior uh uh hold on a sec. Here actually okay prior unemployment uh was not reduced by 74 000. It was only reduced by 6 000.

Sorry. I read that wrong and the average hourly earnings for last month did take up point one percent. So they're revising last month from point three percent to point four percent and they're keeping this month. At point three percent.

Which is the expectation okay this this is somewhat decent and it should be decent at least and we'll see how the stock market is reacting. But what we don't want to see is any kind of sign of a wage price spiral uh. We'll go ahead and look at the documents in just a moment. But we really don't we really want to avoid uh.

Anything that suggests oh wage price spiral right uh. The nasdaq's down presently about point eight percent. So eight tenths of a percent let's go ahead and look at the actual jobs data. Here and go ahead and pull this up so.

Here's the actual jobs report. Let me go ahead and throw it into a pdf give me one second. This is the perfect opportunity of course to mention that this video is brought to you by tastytrades go to metkevincom. Tasty and get.

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We've got the bls report up uh again so we've we've already got the numbers in that were matched on the 03. For uh month over month expectations. We did get a point one percent take up for last month in uh the wage gains and we actually beat in that change in non farm payrolls 372 000 compared to the expectation of 265 000 now i just want to speak to that for a moment. Because 372 000.

Jobs when when we're expecting you know the federal reserve's job to actually start taking effect it might be another sign though that the federal reserve still isn't tightening enough that maybe they have to do more so even though. We're not really seeing that wage price spiral. We're still seeing a pretty hot jobs market and that could end up convincing. The federal reserve to be a little bit more aggressive so this is going to be something to pay attention to right.

Here again unemployment rate remaining at 36. That's fine let's see which categories are really blowing up this labor force participation rate declining a little bit below expectation. It's unfortunate. But uh the actual sectors that gained and lost would be very interesting to see so here we go employment in professional and business services grew by 74 000.

With management of company enterprises growing 12 000. Computer systems and design 10 000. Admin services. Eight r d.

Six. And uh. I do see a lot of r. D.

Spending by the way. I was looking at meta and in our course. Member live stream. A couple days ago.

We did a review of some of the initial fundamentals of uh. Meta and we were blown away with the amount of uh money that they spend on research and development. I mean meta really is almost a complete research play into the metaverse and like vr and ai. I thought that was very very interesting uh keep in mind ever almost every day.

It's harder when i travel but generally every day when we do a course member live stream. We do a fundamental analysis on something. And you get lifetime access to those uh course. Member live streams with me in the link below so leisure and hospitality here.

We had 67. 000. Jobs however employment and leisure and hospitality is down by 13. Million since feb.

Of 2024 you know what's interesting about this is it really speaks to this idea that we haven't yet figured out how to get to an equilibrium. Because we're seeing in many cases travel and uh and uh air travel hotels. Actually we see more people using these things. But we actually have less individuals working.

There so this is an interesting note by the bls and i think. That's why you see so many flight cancellations employment and health care rose by 57 000. Transportation warehousing added 36 000. Jobs manufacturing increased by 29 000.

I mean this is across the board gains here i actually i mean mining oil gas. Everything grew uh. I do not there was no category that dropped wow there was no category that dropped so social assistance rose information added 25k wholesale trade added 16k 8k and non durables wholesale. Okay well that's just relative to before no no declines.

I mean the the fact that we're not seeing any kind of declines really suggests that we're still in a kind of a booming economy here now i do want to see what the 10 year break. Even is doing right now yeah or even the five year break. Even because that's how we can track our inflation expectations as we saw yesterday in the video that i did with the blackboard. It's really important to uh watch.

The uh. The breakevens break even yield spiking a little bit. Uh but but not much we're still at 26. Still substantially uh lower than then uh.

I'm going to go and share the screenshot here still substantially lower than where we have been since uh the beginning of the year one sacked for the screenshot all right stand by ipad here you go uh. So you can see the break evens here. And you can see we've got a little bit of a spike here just in the last couple days on the five year break even but still the inflation trajectory. I mean this this never is flat right i mean throughout the course of of these breakeven charts.

You see this sort of rigidness. So not a surprise. So we're seeing a massive move to the downside. There okay uh anything else in the labor report that we really have to look at let's go back to the labor report.

The uh let's see here average work week for all employees held at. 345 in. Manufacturing the hours were a little changed and overtime fell by 01. Hours the average work week in production and non supervisory remained at 34 hours the change in total non form payroll was revised down no here this is what i thought it was closer to 70 000.

What was this the change in total non form payroll for april was revised down by almost seventy thousand sixty eight thousand from four hundred thirty six thousand to three hundred sixty eight thousand and may was revised down by six thousand with these revisions the april and may employment is actually 74 000 lower than previously reported that's what i saw okay that's what i thought okay. That's very interesting so even though and and i think. This is a good conclusion uh to sort of make even though. Today's report came in about 70k jobs hot april and may were technically 70k jobs light that somewhat uh that somewhat means means we came in at expectations.

Not hot. Today. Now that might take a little bit more nuance for the stock market to understand so i don't know if we're gonna really see stocks understand that very well today uh. But we'll see i think.

This is very interesting let me see how stocks are moving right. Now. I do not have it set up on sorry excuse me okay so uh it looks like okay. It looks like we've got some uh we have a decline in for example tesla uh tesla dropped about 04.

After the jobs report qqq the nasdaq right after the jobs report dropped about half of a percent. We were actually green and we went we went negative now we're actually sitting down point eight tenths of a percent. We were positive before the jobs report. But i really think it's going to take a minute for the market to kind of parse.

This data and i think once the market realizes wait a minute. But we had revisions down of 70 000. So sure we came in hot today at over 70 000. And sure that might you know suggest a a more aggressive fed here.

But um. You know you have to consider the fact that we just had a reduction of 74 000. Jobs in the prior okay let's see if we if there's anything else. I think.

That's that's really important nuance to have okay. No these are just tables here no job. Losses though in any. Category i did think that was very interesting 71.

Percent of people teleworked uh. Because of covet. Oh okay. And okay.

That's let's see okay yeah. So let me go ahead and take a look and see what the suits are saying. But i expect the suits are going to say something somewhat similar. I'll give you a report of this okay.

So yeah for those of you just now joining it looks like the indices are dropping and we've seen a decline of about eight tenths of a percent on some of the indices from positive. We're actually slightly positive and we've seen this because the labor report came in a little bit hot. We had the same expectations for uh month over month wage gains and this is good right that's that annualized 36. Percent.

But unfortunately we came in a little bit hot with the labor report. We were expecting 265. We came in with a figure of 272 000. Now what's interesting about this though is we did get a minus revision of 74 000.

Jobs over the prior two months. So even though we beat here uh well we beat by a little bit over a hundred thousand we did lose 74 000. Jobs so it's almost it almost feels like these are a little bit of a wash uh because i don't know if the market would really move off of like 30 000. B.

I. Mean that that'd be pretty dang. Close. Okay.

Markets have priced in a total of 180 basis points for the remaining fed meetings of the year this means the federal reserve's funds rate is expected to double by december to 35. Percent. That's correct we have seen exactly that. Uh remember we did still see that the jolts indicator came in at 112.

Million jobs. That's hot right and that's another issue. We were actually expecting that jolts measure of job openings to come in potentially at 11 million maybe even below 11 million showing that companies are tightening their ship showing that companies are spending less money. But that's not what we saw and uh.

Now. Yeah. Okay well this this report is also now telling us that there are only 59. Million people actually looking for a job right now uh that is according to today's labor report.

Wait a second that's actually a little bit of a problem. Oh yeah. Okay. So this this could be another reason.

We're having issues all right so take a look at this jolts uh job openings came in at 112. We thought that would mean the ratio of uh those looking for work would drop from 19. To a lower level. What this means is and and i'm writing this down just to sort of give you some conclusions here.

We we thought the jolts openings would go from about 12. Million to 11 point uh well and they ended up going to 112. We thought they would go to uh 11. And we thought that would mean that the ratio of people looking for work.

To open jobs would drop from. Like 19 to maybe. 18 to 17. And we'd start seeing that compression because remember jerome powell says he wants to see that get to equilibrium equilibrium is one that means you have one job opening per person looking well according to this latest jobs report uh in this bls report there are 59.

Million job seekers in june uh that number actually came in lower than expected. So that could be another reason. We're seeing some red now and the it looks like the options market is also showing a greater likelihood of a 75 basis point hike in july. Here that could be why we're seeing uh markets turn right on this report.

And it doesn't look like it's getting better. The nasdaq is now down a complete one percent. So it actually looks like as the market is digesting this news. More we are going down more the s p 500 is down six tenths of a percent.

The decline in the participation rate suggests that that the demand or that the strategy to cool. The labor market has relied on curbing job demand. But that's not a friendly message for risky markets let's parse that the decline in the. Labor.

Force participation rate of 02. Percent. Uh. Okay okay got it it's basically saying that in order to cool.

The labor market uh. The suits are believing or interpreting that the fed is basically going to be stuck with trying to do everything they can to get that jolts number down this 112. Number here and we're actually not getting that number down and so job demand has to cool and we're not we're not actually seeing a cooling of that yet now it's important to remember a lot of these these numbers are lagging right like. This report is from june.

And it was probably surveyed between the middle of june. The third week of june right when the fed raised rates. So it's like the market doesn't even have time to react to these things well the market does but but not the actual like job market. So this is uh now being called a green light for another 75 basis point hike that this uh.

Strong jobs report. Despite the 74 000. Job loss over the last couple months. Despite.

That this strong jobs report basically puts the nail in the coffin for uh for a 75 basis point hike. Okay and that explains why we are seeing the s p down. Now uh point seven percent let's see how the ten year treasury is doing on this news ten year treasury is uh actually slightly up it looks. Like 303 is the last read i have.

Here and. Yeah actually i'm. Sorry. Oh that's interesting um.

F. 303. Here but cnbc is actually. Reporting.

This with no. Delay at 308. So i could be seeing a little bit of a delay. There let me see if there's just a present move within the chart here.

There's there's no specific move at the jobs data for the cnbc uh representation of the 10. Year but we are seeing the 10 year at 308. That is over three percent again anything over three percent does does really strain real estate. And i think that's a big opportunity that we want to pay attention to going forward is real estate in the real estate market uh as as desirable as i think it is to also uh you know take advantage of buying the redfin data center or in the stock market.

Redfin data center is certainly starting to show us that inflection point in real estate for uh at least what we're seeing in price drops. This is nationwide an increase of price drops. But if you go to specific regions. Which is so incredible you go to like let's say in austin.

You really start seeing or even boise. You really start seeing how the percentage of active listings. With price drops has actually substantially increased even more so than the national average. Very interesting okay that is our jobs report.

We have uh one more note here employment population ratio moves down yeah exactly moving in the wrong direction. This is a tough one for the white house. Because they will want to showcase good continuing job gains and continuing wage gains is a good thing. But the flip side is without some slowdown.

It adds. Inflationary pressures. Yes it does uh and again we weren't we were expecting 03. On wage gains.

We did get that still no evidence of a wage price spiral. If we start seeing evidence of a wage price spiral uh no nobody's gonna save us we we will just be straight up screwed uh. But the good news is you can still get life insurance in as little as five minutes by going to medkencom. Life and you can get yourself up to two hundred dollars in free stocks by going to.

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