Ready for a high detailed video including stock picks, the potential for recession coming, and catalysts, as well as where the heck was Kevin yesterday. Watch this video. But remember, the Gold Course has a big price change coming up at New Year's Eve So if you want a tax deduction from somebody investing and managing over $100 million, that's me, go to Meetkevin.com or click the link down below. Check out the Gold Course.

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New lectures are dropping tomorrow and you get lifetime access to the course member live streams. Let's get into the update: What the heck happened yesterday and we've got a lot to talk about in this video from Catalyst coming up my stock picks for 2024 I'm going to break those down in this video recession coming as predicted by manufacturing and I'll also explain not just what happened in the stock market yesterday, but quite frankly, where the heck was Kevin yesterday? Yeah yeah, I know Yesterday it's like went back to doing Market open live streams and for the first time since we've come back I didn't do one yesterday I posted a little head zom that I wasn't going to and I apologize for that I feel bad about that. Here's what happened to me really quickly and end of the year: Audit Prep: Okay, we get audited, not taxwise. It's like for house hack having a startup when you raise money and I got to get everything perfect I was up to like 3:00 or 4 in the morning and then I decided okay I could get an hour or two asleep and ruin the day or I could unfortunately not do uh, the live streams and spend some awesome time with Mr Max which I was so fortunate to be able to do.

uh I did take that day to spend time with family so I apologize for not being there. Now we'll talk about what happened in the stock market as well. I'll also explain why I was in Utah in the first place. it wasn't actually to go skiing, it was actually to meet a seller of a $16 million deal deal not necessarily actually in Utah uh but I went there because uh, we were uh, negotiating a deal and I wanted to close the deal.

so I decided you know what easiest way to close the deal in my opinion is with somebody in person. I love closing deals. this is by the way Max learning how to ski and then Max being dead after skiing he was so tired. but anyway.

yeah I like I'm a big person-to person believer. We've got a ton of great interviews lined up for the channel. in 2024, 2024 is going to be sick. We have such great Foundation set but this is just advice for everybody if you're having trouble closing a deal be you know, and and you're frustrated somebody doesn't understand a POV or what's going on.

Sometimes it's a matter of meeting people in person so you could understand the emotion, the s sincerity, and the reactions you're getting from things you're saying. It's really amazing if you're in person with somebody and you say something you might not realize on the phone or text or email. certainly not in those last few that something you're saying actually rubs them the wrong way. Whereas when you're in person, you could figure out why somebody feels a certain way and structure a deal.

So House I got a $16 million deal that we think we got for like $2 or $3 million below value. Sick deal multif family. By the way, all the details over at Hous Haack Homes.com The House Haack YouTube channel if you want to see it because I was able to drop everything and fly over there the next day and finalized the deal and we're at negotiations I'm like tired of this back and forth I'm like hey, can I just talk to the seller directly and the agent's like yeah, this is abnormal but sure, how do you want to do it I'll meet them, where are they done I'm there. It's powerful anyway.

So uh again, those updates over at the House hack uh Homes YouTube Channel I'll link it down below in the uh, top of the description. So that's why I wasn't there yesterday. So uh I had to negotiate a deal. then I had to do a ton of auditing work uh, some of the staff's out of the office and then I thought do I want to be dead tired for helping Max learn how to ski? or do I want to take the holidays here and spend some time with Max and Jack that's what I decided to do so.

Longer explanation but a little bit of an update. it sets for Good Foundations for 2024. Okay, so what happened in the stock market though yesterday while I was gone? Well, my take, two things happen. Number one, we didn't get the breakouts.

Okay, we we actually had like failed breakouts. In fact, Tesla is the perfect example of a failed breakout that we had here. I Mentioned in the Thursday Market open live stream that we really need a full Candlestick above 258 to be able to confirm a breakout on Tesla The second it became apparent we weren't going to get a full Candlestick above 258, this sucker dropped I Mean it went straight to 248. Not a surprise.

See, when we closed at 263 or whatever on the average candlesticks, you could see that's like a tiny little nub above that critical threshold right there. That's not good enough for confirmation. You can't rely on the one minute candlesticks to assume that you've got confirmation. So of course, when that died, that was over for Tesla, You could see that pain.

see how we were briefly over here in that 260s Boom. Once we failed, we broke right through very, very critical intersection here. Now, not only did we have failed breakouts at things like Tesla or Nvidia trying to get over 500, couldn't pull it off or uh, Apple to get over 200. Not only are we having these failed breakouts, but as the breakouts are failing, guess what happens? Two things: Number one institutions start going.

You know what? It's time to take some profits Because guess what folks. and this is the misalignment of a lot of the mainstream. Finance World They don't really care about necessarily what's 100% best for everybody. They want their bonuses and that's okay.

it's just the way the system structured. Anybody who's watching who getting a bonus on trading performance at the end of the year. Good for you. Like that's the system it is.

But let's be real. if you got tendies on Tesla going into the end of year because of some of the positioning you did in 2023, you want to realize those going into the end of the year. So that way, when the January review comes in and the boss comes in and goes all right, how was everyone's performance and how does that performance compare to the benchmarks you know, like the S&P 500? Well, then you get more of a bonus if you took some profits if you lose all your gains going to the end of the year like the last two days, well, your profits go. your your uh, your profits go down.

Which means your bonus goes down. so there's a lot of that. But there's also bragging rights. When you're a fund manager, you want to be able to brag.

oh yeah, we beat those ETFs and we beat that Benchmark and we B beat this and that. What? Like I run an actively manage ETF I Get it? I Personally, just don't care because I run an ETF for me and I think in the future everybody should be able to have their own ETF because the crazy tax benefits of an ETF It's like 1031 exchanging stocks. bro. imagine if you're a Trader and you could do that, how sick that would be.

Maybe one day. But anyway, even if you're a long run investor, just be freaking amazing to be able to 1031 stocks be crazy. So anyway, uh, that's one reason so failed Breakout and then this institutional profit taking to increase uh, likely performance-based pay at the end of the year and bragging rights for institutionalsales as much since 2023 was obviously a very good deal year. So uh, what else? Well, now we've got to understand.

Okay, well, what's next? What about Catalyst I Mean that's what happened at the end of the trading uh days here. But what about Catalyst going forward? And what about my stock picks going forward? We're going to hit my stock picks in just a moment. but I I just want to remind you about some of these uh, catalysts which I'm telling you I love eack so much Ew.com because I could I literally just I went just as I'm filming this video live I just went uh, private browser popped on over to Ec.com scroll down to my uh Catalyst and look, oh there it is and I can just reference it every day. It's going to be a busy week, you know, on the third.

Once we kind of all really actually get settled back into the office, we're going to get jolts. We're going to get Fomc. We're going to get ISM prices paid okay Institute for supply side management. uh ADP report jobs report The next week we get CPI core month over month.

All the CPI numbers Come Those are going to be pretty big catalysts. But another thing for you to keep in mind uh is what about the whole recessionary fear? So I wrote a bunch over here on eack about uh, what's going on with uh, some commentary from HSBC uh what's going on in Europe But one of the big ones that I want to pay attention to is I keep hearing people talk about this fear, this fear, this uncertainty, this doubt that we're going to go into a recession because manufacturing is down and so what I decided to do was okay. Well let's go into history and see how many recessions have actually been driven by a manufacturing recession And the reason I want to do that is I want to see is it manufacturing that fails first or is manufacturing reacting to a weak economy right? So in other words, if we have weak manufacturing numbers now, does that mean we're going into a recession? or is it a sign of some other stress, right? So here is a summary of recessions going all the way back to 1937. You ready for this 1937 recession was caused by fiscal debt.

Like a lack of fiscal debt. Uh, growth. So in other words, the government actually being a little bit more responsible with its spending and fighting inflation. So so what causes it a recession? Then the government and the FED Keep in mind what you have today.

You have the FED priming to lower rates and support the economy and the government never stopped spending money. If anything during this last cycle, they are why we didn't go into a recession like and this is not to be political. I'm just saying when you just spend money like crazy on the Inflation Reduction Act, the Chips act uh, you know whatever. uh I mean many of the other uh policies that were implemented as well and loose interpretations of laws that were passed this spending is supportive of GDP We know that.

Okay, so what else? Uh oh so when you undo that, you might have a recession, right? Uh 1945. Massive Cuts in government spending Yep, Massive Cuts in government spending. Not good. That could drive you in recession again.

Opposite today and I'm not here to say this time is different. I'm here to tell you, when are things the same and when do they rhyme and when are they just straight up the opposite, right? Uh 1948 Post-war inflation due to penup savings and demand Uh, lead to an inflation blowout going from 3.3% to 11.6% Boy, that sounds familiar I Wrote mild recession after policy makers responded late that that, uh, that also sounds somewhat familiar Responding late, right? Uh, Okay, worth noting. then you've got wind down of government spending. Remember today, we're actually seeing an uptick in government spending exact ex ly and debt expansion 1957.

Recession fed induced tightening 1960 Uh us diminished demand due to Globalization. Basically, we're going to buy the Chinese stuff as opposed to the American stuff. Uh 1969 Debt inflation fed 73 Oil embargo Inflation fed 80 fed in inflation 82 fed in inflation 90 Oil price shock Inflation 01 Dotom Bubble 2017 Real Estate Bubble 2020 Co So what I wrote is based on history: None of these are driven by manufacturing. None of them.

Not a single one of them was led by manufacturing. The point of that is, yes, manufacturing responds to higher interest rates to a weaker economy. A Uh, a level of growth that is slowing. Yes, manufacturing responds to that.

But did that cause a recession? No. It was always something else. fighting inflation. The FED being too tight, the government cutting spending.

Now is the government cutting spending or expected to cut spending in 2024? No. Is the Fed uh expected to loosen in 2024? Yes. Is it possible they don't loosen enough fast enough and we still have an overtightening problem? Yes. Does that mean there's still a risk of a recession? Yes.

Will it be driven by manufacturing? No In fact, when I uh when I was done negotiating on that $ 16 million deal for house? Hack? uh, which remember, go to the house Hack YouTube channel learn more about that uh I I Met some JPM Bank Aners and uh Traders actually they like, hey, what's what's your take on recession in 2024 and they're like, well, 50% like, oh, it's actually higher than I thought. would you think the Fed's not going to cut like do you think second wave of inflation? No, No. second wave of inflation, Just too much damage. Basically already done, so it's definitely still there.

By the way, if you want to learn how I do all these deals, whether it's entrepreneurship it is. Building Wealth Through real estate Building Wealth Through through stocks, understanding tax benefits, how to not pay taxes in America and more. check out the gold course. It's the first link down below.

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There's not a single piece of old stuff in there. Not saying the old stuff isn't good, I'm just saying it's adapted to now. So if you want to buy your first house, you want to buy a rental property, you want to minimize the taxes you pay. You want to be an entrepreneur.

You want to set up Llc's You want to learn about insurance. You want to learn about systems and procedures, checklists, efficiency. How do I get all done that? I Get done folks. The Gold course.

It comes with lifetime access to the live streams. It is really, really good. Uh, and I think you'll love it and I keep adding new content to it I Think something times. That's what people forget is that I don't just make the content and then leave it there forever I add content to it and the fact is, every single day we do a course member live stream.

You get more content there as well. Uh, I've always said I'll stop doing the live streams. uh for the course member live. uh with like a six-month notice or whatever.

It's been six years of me saying that and I'm like I ain't going anywhere. They are so fun! I Love the course member live streams. so I have no expectations of going anywhere with those and you get lifetime access to not only the whole archive from 2018 19, 2020, 21, 22, 23 Everything and the lectures going forward. It's insane.

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Kevin.com will take care of you here. uh before New Year's Eve So uh, go ahead and do that. So okay, uh, that's good to know in terms of recession. Uh, but what other problems do we face? Well, one that keeps coming up is people are wor worried about this Cleveland feds Nowcast for inflation, which currently sits at 33% for Core month over month.

Not great, but what I thought was really interesting is I just typed Nowcast into x uh Twitter basically. uh, that's too wide of a screenshot. so let's do it like that and look at this. Everybody's been freaking out about Nowcast for a while.

Here's a Nowcast estimate somebody posted from May 2023 I Don't want to spoil the part party, but we've moved from a D Like the Nowcast is estimating 43 basis points which is an acceleration of core CPI you know that was in May that didn't end up happening Cleveland fed inflation. Uh report. this is the um uh April 11th report. Oh no, it might be 45 basis points.

Oh no. Uh, here's another oh my. Nav kind of covered that one. Oh, there we go.

Uh, here's another one. uh, Core Core CPI Now Cast 38 In this whole thing from Sep September 23rd complaining about the Nowcast? Then you've got. uh, here's somebody using some of the Nowcast data. you've got uh, Nowcast data here from and that was they were using this in uh May Here's one in: August Talking about how high Nowcast inflation is.

Oh, could be a messy CPI read coming up because the Nowcast is accelerating that one's from July Uh. end of March Now Cast sitting at 6 8% Oh no. checking the Uh inflation Now Cast is not expecting the year-over-year CPI figure to move higher at its next reading. Whatever.

So the the point is like or sorry. Now they wrote not but now they meant to say now and that's 46 base points that was January of 2023. Uh, so the the point is I get emails like this. Okay, and that's what motivated us.

Do you ever check the inflation? Nowcast it has CPI coming at a 3 three for December This is the highest that's been in 3 months. Could this spook markets blah blah blah blah blah blah uh. Or you know, whatever. And and so I actually really appreciated this person sending me this email because it motivated me to just search a little bit at the history of the Nowcast.

I'm like, all right I'm just not going to be worried about it I'm going to wait until the CPI report and then compare that 3 six and 12 month Trend to all of the other CPI reports and incorporate the fact that when we study earnings calls every single day in the course member live stream, there's no inflation left, like it's almost all deflating again. and I always say this. but I Want to be clear, with the exception of ski resorts and Aviation those two sectors have massive supply issues. there's not enough supply of ski lifts.

You don't have enough. Quite frankly, you don't have enough snow right now. in America Uh, 2023 took it all Well, early 2023 took it all. You know it's snow until like May or July how stupid was that? Uh and then uh, and then with Aviation oh my gosh, after covid that AV the aviation industry exploded.

Uh, everybody wants a plane. uh, it's it's crazy and uh. anyway. so um, okay, so now what? All right.

Well, so that's Now cast. Now we've talked manufacturing recessions. Now we've talked why we had a little bit of a week end there. So what do we really have to worry about going into 2024? Well, probably the FED not responding quickly enough to weakening jobs data.

I'm really concerned that jobs data comes in too low and we end up creating a self-fulfilling recession I actually just put out an email uh for for employ you know, basically applicants I'll actually give you the terms that I put in it. Uh, and I want to be clear like I think I provide great benefits for employees. Uh, but I just ask that people when they want to work for me. Mostly almost everyone come work for me in person cuz we got to work together for startup I can't do this like remote crap.

uh and you know it's It's almost like getting paid to not work. Come on man. Uh I know that's not true for everybody, but I don't know. But anyway, so uh I put this post out I said send resume Anyone knows someone looking for a $250,000 a year software career with benefits and eventual stock comp fintech hoping to go from Tiny to multi-billion Dollar valuation.

Need one more? AI helps but we can teach it. We're really looking for a full stack Dev uh capable of you know coding with react must be in person and we'll even pay to to relocate you at Ventura California uh you know people hear it's funny people are like e Ventura why would I ever move to California California is a Cess poool I don't know. Maybe Ventura is the best kept secret one of them. but uh, Venturo were going awesome And the people who move here they're like dude I didn't know California was like Ventura specifically or parts of California San Diego uh Santa Barbara these aren't Secrets right mono uh paloalto San Louis Obispo A lot of people are like wow I did not know California was this freaking amazing.

There's a reason people pay the prices to live here Orange County Irvine those are other examples T La Vistas up there in there. maybe not up there, but in there anyway. Okay, so uh I you know, like we're seeing applications for people and so we're like. this is great.

It either means we're offering a very desirable position or is there a chance maybe more people need jobs now and there are less available jobs? I Don't know. We'll see that with the Jolts data and then obviously the jobs data coming out this week, those are going to be very, very important data sets. I Can't understate how ridiculously stupid it is to argue for deflation. If you want deflation, you are arguing for depression.

The FED knows this and you now, you might say, but we're definitely going to deflation great. Then you know the FED is about to turn the money printer on again. Now if you argue, well, we're going to have a second wave of inflation. Yeah, that's possible.

Then we're screwed in terms of like, stagflation, right? Because then the economy sucks. Jobs Go to Poops and then you have inflation. But literally every time I ask somebody to show me where the inflation is. they can't do it.

They're like, well, it's just my opinion That's like the best response. I Get you know I mean you already know this. We do the stock market open live streams every day. the Market's open 5.

Well, with the exception of yesterday, uh, 5:25 a.m. and uh, I do my best to provide value every single day there. which is awesome. Uh I hope you're there.

but anyway. uh I I ask people on a daily basis please show me the inflation. it's not coming. so we look in company earnings calls obviously more importantly, but it's it's pretty pretty wild.

Uh, okay, so uh, now that's out of the way. What else? What? What else is there to talk about? I mean sure, we hope to see some more inventory in Q1 to Q2 Here For Real Estate but you know what? I'm seeing seeing a lot of sellers that are like ah, we're not going to sell, we're just going to refinance cuz they have like s or 8% interest rates. Some of them I don't think they're going to be able to pull off refinancing. so I think there're going to be a sweet ton of deals to get in real estate in Q1 Q2 Uh, we got a lot of good deals here in Q4 We think we absolutely crushed it with House Hack Again, go to House Hack Homes YouTube Channel I'll link it down below under the gold course pitch which uh seriously, the gold course.

It's worth your money. it's 100% if you want. If you want a tax deduction going into 2024 and you just want the best from somebody who manages over $100 million gold course link down below right next to the link for the H YouTube show. Okay, but now we got to talk about stock picks.

What about stock picks? Well I wrote this on eack and I wanted to add a little bit more clarity on uh well here on YouTube we can really talk about some of these things on YouTube a little bit better. So first I Still think chips are a play Now look at the end of 2022, we nailed it. We we went crazy heavy on chips at the end of 22. we didn't know we were going to get the AI Rush Uh, which is wild but I actually think 2024 will be the year of profit.

in other words, companies having to prove that they're able to grow profit. So stocks we're watching for growing profits well are definitely not going to be the Nikes The best buies the Walmarts The targets the costos. these are your Staples and discretionarily to try to hit their sales targets. and so Trade Desk is a potential beneficiary of this so that they can show their investors growth again.

So we still like Trade Desk. We also, uh, obviously still like Tsmc uh Asml Nvidia AMD those those are kind of generic Intel right? and so on. Uh, but also green energy and building. If the real estate.

If real estate continues to avoid a downturn, uh, we're big fans of your lows. Your Home Depot your end phase your solar Edge Uh, basically companies you know Restoration Hardware companies that would benefit likely or hopefully, uh, from new spending from homeowners Again, whether they're refinancing or taking out debt through credit lines or whatever it is I Saw somebody left a comment they're like, oh, Kevin thinks people are going to refinance their homes to take $30,000 of equity out just because they have some principal pay down. Uh, over the last 3 years that they haven't used yet. Missing the point, Man, you don't have to Finance Your whole loan you got to wake up to credit lines America's built on debt.

Credit lines are like literal credit cards CR Delicious, delicious credit cards. Imagine going to a local credit union who is desperate for your business and that credit union says oh, looks like you got some equity in your home that you've built up over the few years. how would you like one of these Right here? Let's get a little focus on how would how would you like one of these a GP Morgan card? Huh? You want one? How would you like it? Except it's for your house. So every time you go, you get to take money out of your house at an interest rate.

That's the fraction of a credit card and depending on what you spend it on is potentially a tax write off. That got a little more tricky after. uh, after actually the Trump uh tax cut uh uh, plan of 2017 debt now follows what you invested in. so not all the money you take out on a helck is a tax write off anymore.

Uh, But anyway, that is a huge potential source of spending. and what of those people spend money on when they get credit lines? Cars, boats, uh, you know Home Improvements Solar. It's great. But the other thing that could be a big big big big thing is honestly Apple's Q1 headset launch.

That could either be inconsequential so like a big nothing burger or might be the beginning of a significant new product line like the iPad how many iPads that you have before 2010 Zero cuz it didn't exist yet. But frankly I have so many of these darn things, it's wild. But the iPad is a Wonder tool everybody has PDFs these days. If you don't have a good PDF reader yet, you're missing out.

We actually talk about my workflow in the gold course. Oh, there's a little dirt on it. Uh, talk about my workflow in the gold course about not only how I take notes, how I edit how I research how I keep all organized How I have like little Bots that can kind of name things and title things For me, it's it's really kind of cool. Uh, this this is a game changer I love iPads Uh, in fact I have various different versions of them I even have the tiny iPad right here.

This is like the mediumsized iPad Uh, this right here is the tiny one. Yeah, this is really good for when you're going skiing and you want to take a break at the lodge. You know child needs a little distraction or whatever cuz it's light bro. you get one of those uh, giant iPads the iPad pros and then you put the little keyboard thingy on it.

try lugging that thing around in a backpack. man going to freaking work man ain't going to work. So um. anyway, the headset could be a game changer.

Rivan by the way as I wrote here on eack rivan I also think bonds are going to keep rallying. but anyway, which is good for TMF which I've been pitching for a while now. a lot of y'all made money on TMF You want to say thank you by the gold course Anyway, uh, Rivan has survived hell while still not making profitable cars. They could explode on vehicles turning profitable.

which I think there is a chance Rivan goes profitable on vehicles in 2024 game Cher right there. That would be a game changer. On top of that, AI Software sales will be heavily scrutinized I I Don't think the the SAS Revenue growth people are expecting from AI will be that great. but paler I Think will be no guarantees obviously, obviously.

but I regard Paler as the only AI focused company already profitable. and I think in 2024, they finally prove it mainstream. so those are just some examples. I've got plenty of other stock picks that we're talking about with course members and that, so stay tuned.

Buckle up if you want to be part of those course member live streams when we do analysis together. Gold Course: It's not just the lectures you get. You know you want to learn about taxes or being an entrepreneur or efficiency or whatever. and you want to tax right off by the end of the year.

Gold Course: You want access to all the live streams. Gold course. But anyway, jobs. That's the biggest concern I have for next year.

I'm just looking my notes Here Biggest concern for next year, it's jobs, so we'll see what happens. But uh, I'm cautiously optimistic. Really appreciate you being here. I'll keep bringing updates to you and I'm going to finish getting some really good foundations set for 2024.

I Personally, as just a personal note, am extremely excited because I got tests behind me I got Foundation Building behind me I got physical infrastructure set up behind me. You know whether it's offices or Studio upgrades? uh Transportation up Whatever all these things are set and now it's just work and I'm so excited. Uh and if you know somebody or want to recommend somebody for an interview on the channel, send them over to me on Twitter at Real Meet Kevin Thanks so much we'll see you the next one. Bye Why not advertise these things that you told us here? I Feel like nobody else knows about this? We'll We'll try a little advertising and see how it goes? Congratulations man, you have done so much.

People love you people look up to you Kevin PA there financial analyst and YouTuber meet Kevin Always great to get your take even though I'm a licensed financial adviser, real estate broker, and becoming a stock broker. This video is neither personalized Financial advice nor real estate advice for you. It is not tax, legal or otherwise personalized advice tailored to you. This video provides generalized perspective, information and commentary.

Any third party content I show should not be deemed endorsed by me. This video is not and shall never be deemed reasonably sufficient information for the purpose of evaluating a security or investment decision. Any links or promoted products are either paid affiliations or products or Services which we may benefit from I personally operate and actively managed ETF and hold long positions in various Securities potentially including those mentioned in this video. However, I have no relationship to any issuers other than house Act nor Am I presently acting as a market maker.