Hey everyone kevin here what happened today we had a red day in the stock market and we got to talk about a lot of the things that are developing, including what's happening in shanghai, get a little bit of an update on ukraine. We've got to look at some data and charts, really important we're going to look at that short interest as well. Now this video is brought to you by public, go to kevin.com public to get a stock worth up to a thousand dollars. But folks, though, listen to this, this is only the second red day for the s p.

500. Since march 14th, when i said like there's so little buying pressure like now is the time to freaking buy. I did the most buys on february 24th and march 14th. Super low buying pressure great times to buy, but hey can't time the market - i guess right anyway.

This is also the only fourth day that the nasdaq has been read and then read by any means since march 14th, so in other words like the last two weeks, have been really amazing, four red days on the nasdaq two red days on the s p. 500. That's nothing and if you go all the way back to february 24th, which was another bottom for the nasdaq you'll find that we've been green 68 of the time on the s. P.

500. That's almost 7 out of every 10 days, green on the s p. 500. Nasdaq, since february 24th, it's been a little bit more 50 50 at about 56 green.

But it's clear here we're on a trend up we're on a green trend. But why did we have this red today i mean yeah. That makes us feel a little bit better, because when we put up the average candlesticks like we're clearly blowing up from march 14th, we go to the normal candlesticks. This is where we can actually count our couple red days over here or a day since the 24th.

We go over the nasdaq, we could see. The same thing got a few more red days over here, though a couple small red days that barely did anything like a quarter percent down or 0.08 down, but i counted those you know. The point is, we've been doing very good. I mean this has been one heck of a rally here.

So is this just a normal give back day or what are people looking at in the market? Well, the first thing that people are looking at in the market right now, that's creating a little bit of anxiety and we'll talk about future things as well is really shanghai. But in my opinion, the shanghai lockdown is actually not as terrible as it seems. The reason for that is they're locking down shanghai in a very different way now so they're locking down neighborhoods, rather than just the entire city. In fact, and what they're doing right now is what's called a two-phased lockdown phase, one will be they'll lock down the eastern side and then phase two they'll lock down the western side, so the eastern side will be locked down from monday to friday and then the Western side from friday, through april 5th - what's interesting about this - is not only does that mean you're, not locked down for that total of two weeks, you're just locked down for five days, but it also means that the ports are actually remaining active because they're not falling Under the purview of those sides, so the ports have been active for 24 hours.

Now we have gotten pauses at factories like, for example, tesla. We know had to shut down for at least monday of this week, and you know so far we're only at wednesday. Speaking of which, by the way, i will be going to the tesla cyber rodeo and i'm going to have an announcement coming up about. Well, i'm just going to give you a little preview.

Okay, i'm going to also be going to teslacon texas. like if you go to teslacontexas.com, it's an event: that's happening the day after the cyber rodeo in austin i'll, be there sandy monroe, uh, dave, lee, galley and and so on. So if you're interested in tesla stuff go to teslacontexas.com but more on them in in a future video, i've got a tesla uh analysis coming up, so i'll have more details in that video, so stay tuned for that, but they've only had their factory down one day Here and what's kind of interesting about this strategy is, if you shut down some of the factories in in a weird way, you're actually giving the ports an opportunity to go no more boxes. Coming, let's get this stuff out.

You know in a weird way, like everybody's worried about the supply freaking chains, but in a weird way, you're giving the ports a little bit of a break, because the ports are still going 24 7.. So they can catch up a little bit without constantly getting all these new shipments, hopefully reducing port congestion a little bit now. Why are these lockdowns happening? Obviously, covid. 3.

450 coveted cases it's the most in any province in shanghai. Of course, last year. Remember - and this is, i think, why you start seeing some some red in the markets. There are concerns that we might see a repeat of the anti-import getting shut down again, which is in shenzhen, china.

The third largest city shanghai, is the first largest uh shipping port, and this uh shenzhen here is the third largest shipping port in that city and uh. One of the things about last year that was so devastating, was remember, the suez canal and and how that ship got stuck there and everybody's, like oh, our supply chains, uh yeah! Well, when we locked down shenzhen the supply chain, disruptions were twice as bad as the suez. That means twice as many vessels were delayed with the shenzhen port shut down compared to the suez canal blockage, so it makes sense why there's some nervousness going on right but again ironic, because the ports are up, which is good at least right now. Hopefully it stays that way and maybe that'll allow some catching up all right now, because the factories or some of them are shutting them.

Anyway, then, we've got some fears. Lingering about ukraine. We had a lot of euphoria almost yesterday about oh, my gosh in-person peace talks. This is it.

This is that de-escalation we've been waiting for, but, as expected, those peace talks didn't do much if anything, they've kind of re-allowed uh putin to sort of regroup pull his troops back from kiev, as he said, he would but now he's kind of regrouping them in the Eastern regions like the donbas, and we know that one of putin's demands is to essentially carve out the eastern regions and the donbas, and he just doesn't want ukraine to be part of nato, but maybe would even consider allowing them into the eu. Who knows the point? Is we didn't get an end to this war yesterday during these peace talks? Now we didn't really expect that personally, my expectation is that this war will be over by the end of may. Ukraine expects it'll be over by the beginning of may. We'll see, but at the same time as you have these talks that didn't turn out as positive as hoped, although still a great sign, you have germany now bracing for the potential that natural gas is just going to get cut off completely, because putin is demanding that Any natural gas germany buys be paid for in rubles, which, in order for you to pay for natural gas and rubles, it's not just like okay, let me just like transfer the wallet and in btc to eth, or whatever i mean.

I guess in some degree it's like that, but you actually have to buy the rubles. So this means it's like. Okay, here are euros, give us rubles, and now you have currency risk, because now you're hurting and depreciating as or you're holding an asset. It's like falling in value, it's like a freaking hot potato, and it's like okay, give me the natural gas.

You know if it takes a few days that natural gas could end up being 20 cheaper if the currency fell 20. In those days now it hasn't been as volatile, but it's certainly a risk. It's something that's being considered so uh this. This is something that's frustrating european countries, it's another sort of negative thing, that's going on the markets.

I don't see it as like that big of a deal, i think it's all solvable, but now there are rumors that putin's going to say well by the way you want russian wheat rubles, you want corn, you want neon rupples, i mean quite frankly, you can't blame Them it's kind of makes sense, but anyway, so this is some of the drama that's going on the market. Regarding data, we did have some actually, in my opinion, not terrible data, but we did get a slowdown a little bit in personal consumption from q4 estimates, and this is what i'm saying like it's still good: it's not terrible. We were expecting 3.1 growth in people's spending. Came in at about 2.5, so slower this is from q4 by the way.

So it's kind of like an older piece of data but q4 okay, it came in a little weaker than expected. Gdp annualized came in at six point: nine percent. We were expecting seven percent a little weaker than expected, but honestly not terrible. Now we'll see what happens.

Q1 gdp that comes out in april uh, actually it'll come out past april. It'll, take a little bit for them to put this together, but that's more of a concern is like: are we in a recession right now right that that sort of look back uh private payrolls came in robust a strong in a weird thing, though, in a real Weird way here, though, good news and payrolls is kind of seen as somewhat bad news, so adp reports come out two days before the actual jobs report. The actual jobs report comes out friday and the actual jobs report. If it comes in strong, like the adp report came in, it beat beat by about 545k versus 450..

If that comes in strong on friday, like the actual government report, the unemployment report and the unemployment report does show that unemployment fell another 0.1 to 3.7. Then that's gon na instead of being good news and be seen as a rally point going to be looked at as like a a great more fuel for the fed to give us that 50 bp hike so kind of got a little bit of that. You know good news is bad news thing going on, especially this overhang of like oh no like what are earnings going to be like in q4? How are companies going to guide and i'll tell you i mean so far nike and lulu? They reported really late in this quarter and they're, giving really good guidance like i'm impressed they're, giving way better guidance than they thought they would give for uh for for this upcoming quarter here q1, which is the earnings that we're going to get next month in the Month thereafter, so cautiously optimistic, but still a little worried that consumers are going to be rotating down or sort of. Turning that dial back on on spending right.

So we'll get some other reports, but is some important charts to look at we'll look at these together. Right here are the following, because they give us a really good picture of some of the other drama, that's going on in the markets. So, first of all, we got the 10-2 technically. The yield curve, at least according to the chart that i've been looking at for 10-2, did not invert we're to spread on the 10-2 here of just 3.6 basis points which is really really low.

And if i zoom into a three-day version of this, this is yesterday here where there was talk about an inversion. We got really close to that line there, but we didn't technically invert yesterday, which is good and if anything, we're kind of spreading away from that. But not by much, i mean 3.6 basis points we're really close to inverting on that yield, curve right and then, of course over here. This is actually another piece of good news so, like.

Let me just give a quick recap here so far, a lot of these things, they're, not terrible news like it's more it's, i would say more good news than bad news with ukraine. I'd say more good news than bad news with jobs, even though it could be interpreted bad, more good news than bad news with like the lululemon report, for example, on consumers, right, that's, good, uh and and uh on on the inversion not happening. That's good! Yet could still happen, obviously right, but i'm seeing more good news here than bad news. It's not like horrible news that is going to come through and all of a sudden tank, our nasdaq under that triple bounce that we had and here's another example of that.

So this is our inflation expectations chart the five year break. Even we've been seeing this skyrocket here, but look at this. We have a nice little drop in that at market expectation of inflation, and this is really good, like in my opinion, for us to really see uh another like a quad bounce. We would call it on the qqq, where we actually retrace all the way back down to zero percent over here, which would be nasdaq.

You know somewhere around 320 you'd be losing about. You know 50 points. That's a huge move, it'd be giving up 15 again. Ish 12, 15, somewhere on there, that's huge for the nasdaq right, because that means you know tesla's, probably down 25 right for us to really do that.

You know when you look at the data it's like. Well, i mean it's not great, but it's also not horrible. Like yeah, okay, lock down in shanghai, but then you look at the details. It's like okay! Well, that's not that bad, like the news we're getting is not that bad and so to me it's actually consistent with us being at about a 50 to 60 retracement.

Now it'd be stupid, absolutely stupid if we ran all the way back to all-time highs like that would be dumb, there's still too much bad news for that, but the bad news is not really getting worse right now, if that makes sense, so i think that's something To pay attention to and in an interesting way, you've got the 10-year treasury yield here, taking a little bit of a breather right now at 2.34. This is good for mortgage rates remember real estate, and this is also interesting for the stock market. But if mortgage rates go up, then real estate potentially goes down. If real estate goes down, then spend could potentially goes down as that net worth feeling the feeling of how rich you are goes away.

People spend less money right, but it could also lead people to go more into the stock market because hey if real estate's starting to have potential issues, more people might throw their money and buy the dip in the stock market, because we do still have a dip. In a lot of sectors, right and the the problem, though, is where people are putting their money is, is mostly at least based on flows that we're seeing the big boys institutions are seeing this sort of move to nasdaq and sort of mega cap style stocks. More so than smalls and mids, so smalls and mids, while they get these occasional, like momentum surges for one to three days, it's the big caps that just keep getting bigger and bigger and bigger, because it's almost like they're seen as a little bit of a safety Tool like the most popular big caps right now, at least for retail and retail's kind of been leading the charge buying the dip in this here retail has been focused on apple tesla, facebook, nvidia and amd. Now.

Institutions are still somewhat bearish here. We're going to talk about shorting in just a moment, but retail is not. I mean we have 1.2 billion dollars of retail inflows a day, that's as much as we had per day in march of 2021.. That's crazy, because people were way more active in stocks.

Last year than they are today, but we're still seeing a similar amount of money flowing in right now from retail. So this is really good. Now uh another thing for us to really pay attention to are potential bearish signals in the bollinger bands, and i'm going to show you exactly what i mean with those. But first a quick message from our sponsor public public is an investing platform that helps people be better investors in public markets.

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So now we're gon na talk, bollinger bands and shorts. First, let me just hit shorts really quickly. People are still pretty bearish. I mean take a look at this okay, i'm gon na hide myself for a second here.

Look at this okay. This is arc in march and we're at the highest point in shorts for arc k right now. You look at sofi, we're still pretty elevated we're at a higher level of shorts in the last 10 days than where we were at the beginning of the month. Uh palantir, somewhat less, but still elevated about 7.28 tattooed chef still over 30.

Amc. Look at that after the amc and gme runs here. You've actually seen short interest jump roughly about five percent, each lucid still sitting around 19 short and then you go to the big boys. Look at that spy 17.7 short pretty stable throughout the month here and 13.5 percent short on the nasdaq, actually less short on the nasdaq than we are on the spy, which is pretty incredible, but still these are.

These are indicators here that markets are still somewhat pricing in protection here, because they're nervous now our bollinger bands, which i always like to use the trading view platform for show us that we are hitting these potential overbought areas here on, for example, tesla. You could see us hitting the red bollinger region over here, but this could be a little bit of a tough one to declare as as a potential sell signal here, because you have this new piece of data about this stock dividend. Essentially, the stock split right yeah. No sell signals here on end phase, still not in that overbought uh bollinger band bitcoin, not in the overbought yet qqq, not in the overbought, yet not in the overbought.

Yet on this on the spy, i know it feels like we've been nothing but straight up, but i mean we're we're still mid-range here on the indices on spy and nasdaq. Personally, i think we've got room to run here uh, you know if, if anything, tesla again not the best indicator because of that split, if anything end phase or btc you're, getting a little bit touch closer to touching these uh. These overbought bands over here, but beyond that i'll, tell you the indices, aren't showing us super bearish indicators like no sell signals. I see here yet despite the fact that they're just being shorted, so i think on days like today, it's just people loading up on downside protection.

Again, maybe institutions who knows some other news by the way that came out is that uh biden announced that he was activating the defense production act for lithium. This helped certain lithium miners rally like lac and lithium america's company and sec. Well, the sec ended up responding to this rumor that there was a deal going on that chinese companies would have have some sort of deal that would allow them to stay on u.s stock exchanges without necessarily having to comply with the audits that the sec is requiring And gary gensler came out and said that i don't know quote, i don't know where this is going to end up it's up to the chinese authorities and frankly, it could be a hard set of choices for them, so it kind of threw cold water on the Idea that it's going to be easy for these chinese adr stocks, american depository receipts to uh to be safe here. So that's your baba, your neo, your ex ping.

Now it doesn't actually seem like the stocks really care about that. I mean here's neo yeah. We had some red the second half of the day, but, quite frankly, everything was jump on over to baba your uh same thing that second and a half a second half of the day here, but again that was really the entire market i might throw in qq Over here, second half of the day as well, so i don't necessarily see any huge drama here. If anything that tells me that the market's already pricing in a lot of risk that these stocks could end up getting de-listed over the next couple years.

So, just something worth noting - and this is also why you've been seeing so much pressure on what i think are actually good. Companies like neo and alibaba anyway check out metcalfe.com public link down below thanks. So much for watching we'll see you next one goodbye.