Everyone me kevin here: well, there are two things happening that you would have never expected that are happening number one elon is going off the deep end again on a sunday morning and number two, the 41 off coupon code brought to you by me on the courses On building your wealth will be expiring soon. Folks take a look at the one you came for and that's elon musk here you go elon musk, going off the deep end again bernie sanders this morning tweeting. We must demand that the extremely wealthy pay their fair share period. Okay, i tried my best and then elon musk.

Of course i keep forgetting that you're still alive. It seems like after elon musk called ron, wyden's profile picture, a picture that makes ron wyden look like he just came uh. It seems like after elon went to that level. Elon has unlocked complete troll mode and uh.

Now nobody, no. Nobody is spared of the extreme elon troll uh. Now we've got a few things to talk about here. Number one is going to be this uh then number two we're going to talk about elon's, share sales what's left, and then we got to talk a little bit about tesla rivian for a moment but uh folks yeah.

This is this is elon here and then elon did also follow this up with want me to sell more stock. Bernie just say the word which uh to some is going to create some level of uncertainty, especially certain tesla stock owners, who don't really want the share price to go down in the near term, because the signals that elon musk might sell more shares than his already 10 percent commitment, even though he's not even done selling his full 10 percent, yet, which could also mean that this tweet is just sort of a reference to you know basically beating bernie to say. Yes, i want you to pay more and then uh elon's, like all right i'll finish selling or i want you know i'll finish - selling the rest of my uh 10 stakes. So that way i can pay more in taxes essentially right now.

This is where it's worth bringing up how much elon musk has sold so far and shout out to hey dave7 on twitter dave lee on youtube for putting together a spreadsheet. Here you can copy and paste form four into a spreadsheet program, and then manually add these. All together - or you could just use dave's cheat sheet here, which is exactly what we're going to do so again. Thank you dave, but anyway, what we can see here is that uh 10 of elon musk's shares would be somewhere around.

We know this would be somewhere around 17 million. Elon musk has about 170 million shares and uh right now. Elon has only sold about 6.3 million, meaning we really got about. Another 10.7 million shares to go, which is kind of crazy to think about, because if you take 6.36 million and divide it by about 17, it means that elon musk has really only sold so far about 37.4 of what he promised to sell.

So when you add together the fact that elon musk still has about 63.3 percent of his 10 commitment to sell on top of the fact that now elon is teasing, the idea of potentially selling even more you're, probably going to end up with a red day for Tesla, tomorrow and since we are in this sort of ev euphoric super cycle, i think there's a good chance that the other ev manufacturers might do well, while tesla does not. Now, that's certainly not fundamental. That would just be on a technical basis because take a look at this folks uh when we jump on over uh to some discussions about rivian. First, i want to mention that gary black, i highly respect, but i want to make a something very clear that i think is important when we compare tesla to rivien, because i think it's being forgotten in the narrative, especially amongst all this noise with elon musk and His wild tweets and tesla stocks, wild gyrations and and pretty crazy valuation that makes basically any ev company seem like they can also hold a candle to tesla.

I think it's very important to first before we go into this remember what what tesla has that other vehicle companies do not have, and these are extremely important number one proof of concept and not just proof of concept but but proof of sales. These things are actually really important and they're, often understated when we compare to new companies, because a new company can have a new idea uh like oh look, we have an electric car, too uh and when the car hasn't actually proven its sales. Yet there's a lot of opium that okay well, if tesla did so well, then this company is also going to do so. Well, it's kind of like the same opium that you see for lucid great, but they've delivered like 60 cars.

So, let's see how much they do by the end of the year uh, and so this is where it's also important to consider like. Why is pole, star ggpi? What is it ggpi? I can't always forget what the ticker is: ggpi exactly uh the ggpi spec, the gore spec uh. Why is it that uh that so many people are getting excited about ggpi, which is taking pole star in the electric vehicle maker public? Well, uh, you know it's because it seems like another ev play, that's sort of just being left behind rivien and tesla going to the moon, but it's important to also see that pole. Star has something very different from tesla and something very different from rivian.

So, let's line these up at the top you've got tesla with proven cars that sell a lot high high demand for these cars price out. The 20 inch wheelbase model x plaid on tesla.com, and you will be waiting until march of 2023 for that car to deliver. That's insane that is like an insane wait for a car. Now you can still get like the model y performance at the end of this year.

I think december. It's like a six week out delivery, uh and then certainly, i think the model threes are all in 2022. At this point, most of the vehicles are in 2022., but the point is you got tests at the top with massive deliveries, massive demand, you have pole star. I would actually argue kind of near the bottom and the reason for that is they're delivering cars and demand's, not that great, just not that great.

Now i haven't finished my complete deep dive thesis on this. Yet so i don't want this to be misconstrued as like a bash video like here's, a tesla, bull, bashing, ggpi and rivia to get no. No! No! No, i think y'all know i try to be as unbiased as possible uh. But you know when you actually have cars on the market and people don't care about them as much.

There's no sex appeal and you don't have a self-driving suite as well as the other features that tesla has that other car companies don't have, whether that's the uniqueness of the over air updates over the air updates. The you know, changing your your car horn to different songs or making your tesla model x, dance or whatever these. These sort of unique easter eggs are all poured part of this insane tesla culture, and so there's a lot more to tesla than just slapping a battery. In a car just this morning, i drove uh literally a lotus with a battery in it the original tesla roadster.

It is a piece of crap car. It is absolutely terrible, it's garbage, but it was the first and it became something amazing and sexy. If you just take like a mercedes or bmw and you slap a battery in it, you got an ev, but you don't got the culture, you don't got the craziness of the updates and you don't got the the sort of community around it right, and so this Is why i say you got pole, star kind of kind of at the bottom like they have cars and demand is low, uh they're delivering, but demand is low right like there's no culture here uh then you've got sorry to pull soreness. Then you've got tesla uh.

This is uh cultish culture. I'm gon na just be clear about that. It's not like cultured it's cultish uh. Then you got rivien.

Where do you put rivien? We don't know. We don't know where to put rivien now, they're gon na be a lot of people, probably watching these videos, like oh vivian's gon na, be just like tesla they're gon na be tesla colts too, because they're going to have they're actually going to have more things. They're going to have three different, their s1 had this all over the s1. It was kind of interesting they're like three different ways you can like interact with rivians like you, can rent a riviera and add a nature, preserve and take it out into nature, or you could go to rivian, pop-up stores and and be part of the rivian culture.

Uh and the the ran network, like their charging network and all this stuff, they're tr they're doing their best like don't get me wrong when you read their s1 and their marketing rivian knows what they're up against they know they have to create. A culture like tesla has this is why neo has those neo stores and the whole neo experiences and neo day they're, trying to create that cult-like culture. That tesla has so is rivie and rivien's trying to do exactly the same thing. That's why rivian says they're by 2023 going to have 3 000 chargers or 1 10th of what tesla has today, because tesla just broke the 30 000 charger milestone.

This is why they say they're going to have over-the-air updates, fleet management, uh charging as a service, and a lot of the things that tesla has so proprietary battery packs. Okay, cool, like battery packs, are different from actually creating your own battery cells, but okay. This is not a vivian vs tesla versus the others, video it's it's more to bring us to this particular tweet here. So gary black, a person whom i highly respect a person whom i've also interviewed on the channel.

You could watch that video very, very great uh. It's called confronting gary black uh, so check it out it's great, but anyway, gary black writes listening to cnbc produces brain damage. Now i think a lot of people who watch this channel agree with that. A lot of people who watch this channel, don't love cnbc and we're looking for an escape from sort of the mainstream.

Okay. Okay, i get that so this is a, i would say in a wall street bat style, retail style culture. This is probably a very populist thing to say, but let's actually get to the content by 2023. Rivian should deliver 150 000 evs a year, excluding amazon van orders at 60k average selling price less the 8k ev credit up to 80k purchase under the infrastructure package.

That's 9 billion in revenue at 127, rivian ev, 2023 revenue is 12.2 x, tesla ev, revenue, 2023 is 11.6x, and so really what's being created here is gary black is creating this. This equivalence that hey well wait a minute. If, if we can sell riviens for 60 dollars as an average selling price uh and uh, we can do so by producing a hundred fifty thousand per year, then all we have to do is look at a hundred. Fifty thousand.

Let's do we'll do it together. Here: 150, 000.123 times 60 000.123. Okay, we're going to get a large number here, we're going to get 9 billion dollars right. Okay, now we're going to look at rivian stock, simple, google! That's all you have to do to find out market cap got ta hit, enter kevin.

You got ta hit enter okay, that's a hundred and ten point: eight billion dollars, so we're going to take 110.83 divided by nine billion dollars. There you go about that 12.3 uh. Multiple that gary black is talking about 12.2 12.3, whatever simple little rounding difference here right, so that's something known as a price to sales ratio or market cap, the price you're paying for the company to sales ratio and it's 12.2 times you could do similar math with Tesla and gary black is suggesting: hey, look they're similar, so maybe maybe rivian isn't that overvalued after all, okay, fair, but but but but wait a minute wait a minute. Investing is not that simple! I know gary knows this in terms of a popular tweet for the rivian audience.

This is cool, although a lot of gary black's followers are tesla fans. Uh and again i love gary, but i i have a counter okay. My counter is this: on rivian at 150 000 vehicles by 2023. Their s1 indicates an average selling price of 67 900, including 14 to 15 000 in lifetime revenue.

Lifetime revenue is charging as a service uh services in general fleet management software. All this other crap, potentially meaning closer to 52 000 average selling price right. If you back that off, that's a lot, that's lower right! That's 12 percent lower worth noting that right away, so that's a 12 difference right away. Also, tesla has a revenue.

Mult has that revenue, multiple that might be similar, but has proved manufacturing and sales. I should have said that, but i probably ran out of characters and sales right versus rivia, which means you have to include some form of risk adjustment for rivien, because that is not in this metric. If you just look at a price to sales metric and you compare rivian to tesla and people didn't know what these companies are you'd be like oh they're kind of equally valued, but wait a minute with tesla you get proven, manufacturing and proven sales. You have neither of those with rivian and don't tell me the the the sample cars they've delivered so far or produced so far or proof of manufacturing they're.

Not that's not proof of manufacturing at scale like we got to somehow ramp from uh hundreds of cars a month or at this point, tens of cars a month uh to thousands of cars a month to like 10 000 cars a month, uh or or 12 000 Cars a month to actually get to this about 150 000 figure, roughly maybe 12, 500., but anyway, that that creates a risk adjustment for orivian who got to know that got ta, be aware of this when, when you're looking at these other companies so uh, somebody then Replied to that - and i i wanted to go through that and then we'll circle back to elon here, because there's another there's a little bit of junk that elon's pulling off as well, but uh anyway, uh, okay, so we're gon na go to tweets and replies here And uh yeah, so so i somebody was challenging me on this and that's fine like i appreciate that. Oh they deleted their tweet. Oh that's! That's quite interesting, but anyway uh. I basically made this comparison that hey like you you they.

They were essentially saying hey but like they're close, i mean reviewing, has all this potential all this potential and i'm basically making the argument? Yeah. That's fine! That's fine, but you can't create a false dichotomy between rivian and tesla when tesla is proven and rivien is not. That means when you do your valuation bummer that this tweet was deleted. I guess my response was my response.

Responses worked uh, not that i encourage people to delete, but when you, when you do not know yet, while you expect rivien's manufacturing is going to be good and you expect that their sales are going to be good. If somebody else comes out like if canoe comes out with a better delivery vehicle than rivien amazon, if they wanted to, could sell their shares uh out of rivien, and then they could buy the cars from canoe, they do not have to buy the delivery vehicles from Rivien, okay, they just they have an option. They have the first right of refusal. Okay, that's that's very, very, very, very different uh, so you have to include uh some form of discount for the risk of the unknown at rivian and that's all i'm suggesting.

So if you're, you are an investor, please consider this stuff these. These are the things that we talk about in the stocks and psychology money group uh, it's important to think very critically. Uh, when you are an investor, critical thinking, not emotion, very, very, very, very, very important now uh speaking of emotion versus critical thinking, i have to uh, say i'm a little bit disappointed in elon musk elon musk should have last monday, just literally dumped all of a Shares either via a block, sale or over the the few days just liquidated, it would have hurt tesla substantially in the short term uh. You know, tesla could have gone down to 950 900 whatever, but it, but it would be over like rip the freaking bandage off.

Now, with elon only having sold 67 of his shares, i'm sorry 37 of his shares having to sell another 63 of what he promised and now teasing with this bernie joke to potentially sell even more. Although that's not entirely clear uh we're just elongating the amount of uncertainty that tesla investors are feeling there's only so much by the dip power uh, and so i am concerned that the buy the dipping uh could come to a place where there's just no more money. For buy the dipping and uh tesla stock stays down lower for longer. Thanks to this elongated selling, by elon, he could have done a block sale paid like a three or four percent commission.

He would have made more money at this point than how he's selling right now, and so i do have a little bit of a qualm with how elon is kind of like do-it-yourself selling his shares here. Uh because i know he doesn't like paying brokers just like he sells his real estate himself, uh but uh. I think in this case, not only is it losing him money, but it's also hurting tesla stock and tesla investors. So i don't appreciate that so elon.

If you're, if you're watching this, can we just get the rest done via block sale and please be done with it? Okay, in the meantime, i will buy the dip okay we'll make that deal how's that sound okay deal thanks everyone for watching this. Hopefully, you found this helpful and we'll see you in the next one thanks again goodbye.